YeArBooK 2007 - US-Korea Institute at SAIS

saIs U.s.-Korea YearbooK
conclusions based on isolated analysis. This paper explains the changes in the
concept of security since the Cold War and attempts to relate it to the changes
in the U.S.-ROK alliance. By examining the major events between the U.S. and
the ROK in 2007, it may be possible to see where the alliance is heading.
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II. CHAnGInG ConCePTS of GloBAl SeCUrITY
When the U.S. and the ROK signed the Mutual Defense Treaty in 1953, the
Cold War was just starting. The ROK faced an aggressive North Korea that
had larger military forces, a more robust economy, and support from the Soviet
Union. The beginning of the Korean War showed how vulnerable the South
was, and the U.S. presence seemed to be essential to deter further North Korean
aggression and maintain the sovereignty of the South. Meanwhile, as the leader
of the free world, the U.S. felt pressure to back governments that were friendly
to it and to claim South Korea as a “free capitalist country.” The division of the
Korean peninsula was only one example of the “two-polar society.” In these
circumstances, a U.S.-ROK military alliance served the two countries well.
It put strong deterrence pressure on the North, dramatically improved the
military quality of the South, and gave the South a relatively stable and friendly
environment in which to develop its economy. For the U.S., it is one of many
successful examples of its global efforts to counter communism and spread
democracy. The alliance was formed at a time when direct warfare was a main
security concern; its purpose was to prevent invasion from the stronger North
and protect the South’s capitalistic society.
Half a century later, the Cold War has ended and the technology revolution
has been followed by a strong tide of globalization. In this context, traditional
security concepts have gradually become irrelevant—or perhaps outdated is the
better word. First, North Korea, the once-strong enemy, has become isolated
and weaker in all respects. China, the closest friend of the North, has shifted its
interest primarily to economic development, and the likelihood of China helping
the North invade the South is essentially zero. The need for a U.S. military
presence in South Korea to counter an invasion from the North has become very
slim. Second, especially after the 9/11 attacks in the U.S., global terrorism has
become one of the major security concerns in the world. Terrorists have a wide
range of targets, and they do not have to limit their attacks to one country. For
example, Al Qaeda targets not only American soldiers and military facilities but
also American allies. The ROK has had the third largest number of troops in
Iraq, and Al Qaeda terrorists have been kidnapping Korean citizens to blackmail
the ROK government. Third, new issues have emerged that need the attention
of global friends and competitors. Among these are global warming and other
environmental issues; energy scarcity and alternative energies; peacekeeping
and human rights protection. Fourth, the kind of national power that reflects
U.s.-roK allIanCe: looKInG ToWard THe fUTUre
a country’s status in the world and its ability to protect its security has been
shifting from primarily hard power to a combination of hard power and soft
power. Finally, new kinds of challenges from countries other than the Soviet
Union and North Korea emerged in the 21st century. For example, whether it
is opportunity or challenge that a rising China brings to the region, it definitely
has changed the dynamics of regional politics and created a whole new set of
policy concerns for countries in the region. Given these important changes in
the concept and dynamics of security, it is essential for the U.S. and the ROK to
adjust to the new situation. Both sides are taking steps to address the changes.
III. deVeloPMenTS In 2007
North Korean Nuclear Issues
In 2007, the U.S. and the ROK further coordinated their efforts to address North
Korean nuclear issues. On February 17, the Six-Party Talks moved into a new
stage, after years of difficult negotiations and frustrations. The U.S. and the ROK
have been learning how to deal with each other’s different security concerns in
the region. There have been doubts on both sides concerning motive and strategic
approach to the North Korean nuclear issue. In 2005 and 2006, gaps between
the U.S. and the ROK were apparent. The U.S. was mostly concerned about
the proliferation of North Korean nuclear materials, which would be especially
detrimental to the U.S. if terrorist groups got their hands on them. In addition,
Japan—a very important U.S. ally in the region—has been stymied in its dealings
with North Korea over the abduction issue. The Japanese are more afraid of a
direct attack by North Korea than any other country in the region, so they keep
pushing for a tough approach toward the North, which has contributed to the
Bush administration’s hard-line diplomacy toward North Korea.
The hard-line approach began at the same time Kim Dae-jung was trying to
approach the North with his Sunshine Policy. For the ROK, it is much more
troublesome if the North becomes unstable. If economic sanctions are too harsh
and the society collapses, millions of refugees could enter South Korea and cause
all kinds of social and economic problems. If the hard-line policy goes too far,
Seoul would be the first front in a war. And now that the South has advanced so
far economically, South Koreans have started to feel sympathetic to citizens in
the North, who share their roots but are faced with a much harder life.
For a while, the participants in the six-party talks were divided: Japan and the
U.S. pushed for punitive measures, while China and South Korea were ultra
cautious. Friction among the countries was apparent by the end of 2006, which
caused more complaints and doubts about the alliance. The situation changed,
however, in 2007.
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