Second Green Revolution Structure

Second Green Revolution
Agriculture to agribusiness
H. H. H. H. S. S. S. S. Gupta
Gupta
Gupta
Gupta
Indian Indian Indian Indian Indian Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Agricultural Research Research Research Research Research Institute Institute
Institute
Institute
Institute
New New New New Delhi Delhi-110012
Delhi
Delhi
Delhi 110012
110012
110012
Structure
1. Current Status of Agricultural Production
2. Status of Food & Nutritional Security - Indian
scenario
3. The Challenges
4. Strategies for meeting them through 2 nd GR
5. Agriculture to Agribusiness : PPP need of
the day
6. New Initiatives of India in 12 th Plan

+ 6.7 bn ?
+ 2.5 bn
2.5 bn
Global Population Explosion
1985-2050
1950-1985
First 4 million years
Present Concerns:
Current: 7 billion (Oct. 2011)
By 2050: 9.2 billion
Poor: 1 billion (240 m in India)
Underweight Children:
Severely: 180 million
Chronically: 800 million
Vitamin A deficient: 200 million
Pregnant Women:
Anemia: 400 million
Unprecedented Progress during
the last 60 years
• Increased agricultural production
(from 50 MT to 252 MT)
• Higher real income and reduced prices
(from 1975 to 2007)
• Reduced poverty
(by 40%)
• Life expectancy doubled
(64 years)

Food Grains Production in India
Productivity X3
Production X5
Area X0.25
Production and Productivity of Wheat in India
Prodn.x 9
Yield x3
Area x 2.5

Production and productivity of rice in India
Source:: Evenson & Gollin (2003) CABI

Agricultural Production Scenario
Commodity Production
in 1950
(Million tonnes)
Food grains 50.00 252.0
Vegetables 58.50 (91-92) 146.5
Fruits 28.60 (91-92) 74.8
Milk 17.00 104.8
Production
in 2011
(Million tonnes)
Egg (nos.) 1.80 53.5 billion
Fish 0.75 7.3
4-27 times increase in production of various commodities
Reasons for Transformation
GREEN REVOLUTION
• Partnership with CGIAR Institutions
• Adoption of HYVs along with associated technology
• Joint efforts of
– Polity
– Bureaucrats
– Agricultural scientists
– Farmers
• Contd. R&D in partnership with US Land Grant Institutionshelped
in removing the minor deficiencies in Sonora 64 and
Lerma Roho 64A

FUTURE CHALLENGES
&
STRATEGIES TO MEET THEM
Food Requirement- Requirement
Requirement- Indian Scenario
Production 2010-11
(Million tonnes)
• Rice 103
• Wheat 90
• Coarse cer42
• Pulses 17
• Total 252
• Oilseed-31 Million Tonnes
Demand 2021
(Million tonnes)
120
100
40
25
• 285
Will India import food grains in 2023

Food & Nutritional Security
A Major Concern
Can India Maintain Self-sufficiency
Self sufficiency
• Two school of thoughts
– It’s very much possible
– Not possible after 2023 unless
• Increase investment
• Improve irrigation
• Improve factor productivity
• Accelerate technology transfer
Food Security – Paramount Importance
Price fluctuation due to low production?

Fresh Water Resources – 4.6 %
Land – 2.3 %
Population – 17 %
Rainfall – 1170 mm
Resources and Liabilities
Dr. S. Raman, New Delhi Winter
School, 20/3/09
XXXXXXXXXXXX
The Challenges
Second Generation Problems
of Green Revolution
-Nutritional Nutritional Security?
-Breaking Breaking yield barrier
-Decline Decline in Factor Productivity
- Soil Health and Water Table declining
- Increased Incidence of Diseases and Pests
- Climate change- change the biggest threat
-

The Challenges
Incidence of malnutrition among children
(< 3 years)
Percentage
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Rural
Urban
All
Severe Moderate Overall
Undernutrition
The Challenges
Diversification of Crop sub Sector

The Challenges
Raise Productivity
(Small farms holdings)
Increase Income
(Low Cost technology)
Manage Natural
Resources

Efficiency
100
Strategy
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
40%-60%
Irrigation Efficiency
Breeding for response to low water
50%-70%
70%-85%
Flood Furrow Sprinkler Center Pivot Drip
Irrigation Methods
80%-90%
90%-95%
Climate Change : Effect of Enhanced CO 2
Change in insect-pest
dynamics
?

Climate Change
Need for Anticipatory Research
Wide Inter-Regional Inter Regional Variations in Yield
Sl. No. State Food grain yield, 2009-10
(t/ha)
1. Punjab 4.1
2 Tamil Nadu 2.5
3 West Bengal 2.5
4 Uttar Pradesh 2.2
5 Bihar 1.5
6 Orissa 1.4
7 Madhya Pradesh 1.3
Focus on high potential eastern region for
immediate yield gains and inclusive growth

Recent Successes
Bt Bt Cotton
Cotton
Recent Successes
Area reached 8.4 m ha in 2011 nearly 85% of total area.
Production doubled 2.3 mt in 2002 to 4.9 mt in 2010
Pesticide consumption reduced by 40%
12
10
Income of 5 m farmers increased substantially 8
7.67 7.63
6
Cotton export fetched US $ >1.5 billion in 2010
Soybean
Area - 30, 000 ha (1970) to 10.3 Mha in 2011
8.78 8.68
9.14 9.44 9.37 9.6
8.4
7.6
6.2
1.25
0.029 0.086 0.053
Production - 0.14 MT (1970) to 12.4 MT in 2011
Productivity - 430 kg/ha-----------to 1300 kg/ha in 2011- x3 times
40% contribution to oilseed: 25% to edible oil of the country
Million hectares
4
2
0
2002-
03
2003-
04
Adoption of Bt cotton in India
2004-
05
2005-
06
3.8
2006-
07
Year
2007-
08
2008- 2009-
09 10
total (mha)
Bt (mha)

Recent Successes- Successes contd
• Potato production:
• Area 0.54 mha in 1950 to 1.8 mha in 2011
• Prodn. 1.56mt -------------- to 40 mt in 2011
• Prody. 6t/ha-----------------to 20.5 t/ha
• Prodn. 28 times: Productivity 3.5 times
Basmati Rice :
Volume of Export – 8 times in 20 yrs
•
1990 2010
0.25 mt 2.0 mt
Export earning increased significantly

Duration (days)
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Revolution in Basmati Rice
Breeding for Earliness with higher yields
Taraori
Basmati
Pusa Basmati
1
Pusa
Sugandh 2
Pusa RH 10
(Hybrid)
Single Single Single Single Cross Cross Cross Cross Cross Maize Maize Maize Maize Hybrids Hybrids Hybrids Hybrids in in in in India
India
India
India
7
6
5
Yield (t/ha)
• Maize production doubled during the last decade,
• Productivity increased by 80%
• Fastest growth rate (~8%) during the last 5 yrs. –
highest among cereals
• Maize production can further be doubled in next decade
• Hybrid coverage to be increased (from current 35%)
• QPM will help in reducing protein malnutrition (25% food)
• QPM- feed for better conversion ratio in poultry (61%)
• Baby corn export (1 million US $ in 2008 & 2009)
4
3
2
1
0

Quality seed Production & Supply
• Country’ requirement- 321 lakh q
• Breeder seed production 100,000 q - ICAR’s Mega
seed project - 6 lakh q seed in 2013-14
• Total certified/quality seed expected 400 lakh q
• Seed chain is not maintained
• Revamp the seed production
• 20% reserve seed for natural calamity affected
areas
Recent Successes
Agriculture to Agribusiness

R&D R&D R&D R&D Investments Investments Investments Investments in in in in Asia Asia-Pacific
Asia
Asia
Asia Pacific
Pacific
Pacific
Region/
Country
Total spending
(in million $ - 2005 international)
Regional Share
(%)
1991 2002 2002
China 1,174 2, 574 26.8
South Asia
Bangladesh 81 109 1.13
Southeast Asia
India 746 1,355 14.10
Nepal NA 26 0.27
Pakistan 223 171 1.78
Sri Lanka 39 51 0.53
Indonesia 220 177 1.84
Laos NA 13 0.14
Malaysia 227 424 4.41
Philippines 80 141 1.47
Vietnam 8 56 0.58
ASTI-APAARI
Public-Private Public Private Partnership
• Storage
– >60 million tonnes capacity
– Fresh produce being added
• Irrigation
• Mechanization
• Seed production
• Processing & value chain
• Non –farm enterprise –skill development

NEW INITIATIVES FOR ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY
DEVELOPMENT
Conservation agriculture- 147M US $ with investment of 3 M $
Promotion of legumes in Rice-wheat & rice fallows - 5-10
MT additional pulses
Expansion of area under Hybrid crops – viz. rice, maize &
millets
Development of borer resistant chickpea & pigeonpea
Efficient use of rain, canal & waste water for enhancing WUE
Development of climate resilient farming technology
Solid waste management for compost production- soil fertility
Capacity building through training programs for farmers
Revamping education
Strengthening management of IPR - Global seed business-
3.5 b US $, India’s contribution ~1%
CONCLUSION
• 2/3 rd of India lives in villages and depends
on agriculture
• 9% growth in GDP can be supported on if
Ag. GDP grows @ 4%
• Investment in agriculture - PPP is the need
of the hour
• Evergreen revolution is possible provided
we support agriculture

Consumption of Chemical Fertilizers

Way Forward
India-Africa India Africa Partnership
• India-Africa Forum Summit in 2008
– Agriculture for meeting growing demand for nutritious food
India-Africa Institute for Agriculture & Rural Development
Farm Science Centers
Seed production-cum- demonstration centers
Rural technology parks
Capacity building in food processing in Sub-Saharan Africa
- 500 scholarships in Agril Sciences
- 700 Science Fellowships
- Short term training courses
Global conference on Conservation Plant Genetic Resources
from 4th to 6 th September 2012
– Agro-climatic conditions of Africa is similar to
India- Technology can be refined and then taken to
Africa
Way Forward - Partnership
Past Successes
– Rice Biotechnology- Rockefeller Foundation
New Programs
– Network Projects in crop improvement
• Maize – MAB for biotic & abiotic stresses-
• Conservation agriculture for raising system productivity
and conserving resources
• Rice - Golden rice for β carotene
• Tuber crops for disease-free planting materials
• Grain legumes for resistance to stored grain pests

Acknowledgements
FAO for Invitation
EPSO for sponsoring consultation
Colleagues at Indian Agricultural Research
Institute, New Delhi
&
Indian Council of Agricultural Research
Mexican Wheat in India
Dwarf wheat travelled from Japan to US to Mexico and to India
• Salmon (USDA) to Vogel (WSU) to Borlaug (CIMMYT) to IARI
• Rabi 1961-62 -Observational Nursery from USDA
• Summer 1962 -Multiplication at Wellington in Southern India
• Rabi 1962-63 -Demonstration at IARI farm in New Delhi
Dr. Borlaug invited & visited in March 1963
• Rabi 1963-64 -Multilocation Trial 4 places
• Rabi 1964-65 -Large Multilocation trails-155 places
• 1965- Two Mexican Lines Sonora 64 & Lerma Roho 64 A Released
for Commercial cultivation by CVRC (CSCSNRV)
• 18,000 tonnes seeds imported despite scarce foreign exchange
• Yield increased from 8.3 q/ha in1965-66 to 13 q/ha in 1970-71
• Similar was the story in rice with introduction of IR8-dwarf rice
INDIA BECAME SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD GRAINS IN EARLY 1970s

Biotechnology at Crossroads?
• 134 m ha under transgenic crops since 1966 – 46% in
developing countries (China, India, Brazil, Argentina,
Paraguay and South Africa)
• Crops: Soybean, Maize, Cotton, Canola
• Traits: Insects, Herbicides, Viruses
• More than 50 crops and forestry trees are being
targeted currently
• Tissue culture for propagation of plating material for
horticultural crops
• Which is the path we want to take?
• Science-led or otherwise based on emotions

Bridging the Yield Gap
1. Transfer of Technology
a. Dissemination of HYVs - Seed production & SRR - very low
b. Balanced use of fertilizers – 156 kg/ha India against 396 kg/ha in China
c. Judicious use of water – Increasing WUE
d. Increasing cropping intensity – 14 mha rice fallows in Eastern India
e. Diversification with HVC & LS -Increasing Increasing prod. per unit area & profitability
f. Supply of right input- input On time and doorstep of farmers
2. Raising Productivity of RFAs- RFAs Watershed approach
3. Farming System Approach- Approach Raising system productivity rather than of component crops
3. IPM & IPNM- IPNM Biological control & site-specific site specific nutrient management
4. Sustainability to Irrigated Areas- Areas Mung bean in wheat-rice wheat rice system
5. Linking farmers to market- market For increasing profitability

Productivity of Selected crops (Kg/ha)
Yield Increase x 3.35, 0.83 , x 4.43 x1.85
668-2240, 788-655, 663-2938, 842-896
Options for Reducing Emissions
• Avoiding Deforestation
• Minimizing soil erosion risks
• Eliminating biomass burning and
incidence of wild fires
• Improving input use efficiency (e.g.,
fertilisers, energy, water, pesticides)
• Healthy rice and bovine animal
production (aerobic rice, DSR, Proper
feed management etc.)

Source: FAO
Maize Yields, 1961-2009 1961 2009
Still not enough
• India invests relatively a small amount in
agricultural R&D as measured by its intensity
ratio.
Agricultural R&D spending
as a share of AgGDP
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Preliminary data not for citation
India China SSA Brazil USA Australia