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4 Contents The Economist January 2nd 2010 Japan’s two lost decades The country has taught the world a great deal about coping with the nancial crisis. Now the West is on its own: leader, page 10. Twenty years on, Japan is still paying its bubble-era bills, page 52 Climate change The Copenhagen accord could yet turn into a useful document: leader, page 9. A draining diplomatic marathon, page 43. Farms and forests, page 44. The response from business, page 47. Better sewage treatment is the latest thing in clean energy, page 59 The imperial interventionist Nicolas Sarkozy is reversing the French state’s gradual withdrawal from the world of business, page 45 International 43 After Copenhagen China’s thing about numbers 44 Agriculture and climate Farms and forests Business 45 Government and business in France Dirigisme de rigueur 46 Pay-TV in emerging markets Finding El Dorado 46 Taser diversies its arsenal Proto-RoboCop 47 Clean technology after Copenhagen Waiting for a green light 47 KEPCO wins a nuclear contract Atomic dawn 48 Schumpeter Why feminists do not make good recruiters Brieng 49 Women in the workforce Female power Finance and economics 52 Deation in Japan To lose one decade may be misfortune 53 Buttonwood 2010 previewed 54 Global house prices Ratio rentals 55 Economics focus Procrastination Brieng 56 Mobile-phone culture The Apparatgeist calls Science and technology 59 Renewable energy The seat of power 60 New sources of rubber Blow out 60 Flood defences Dambusterbusters 61 Genetics Monogamouse Books and arts 62 A history of objects Creative impulses 63 The Berlin airlift Magnicent men and machines 64 Water Through the aqueous humour 64 Biography Another eld Obituary 65 Oral Roberts Preacher of prosperity 69 Economic and nancial indicators Statistics on 42 economies, plus closer looks at GDP growth forecasts for 2010 and mergers and acquisitions The history of the world A new radio series based around 100 objects at the British Museum shows how the things people made, even more than the events they saw, can be compelling witnesses to the past, page 62 Principal commercial oces: 25 St James’s Street, London sw1a 1hg Tel: 020 7830 7000 Fax: 020 7839 2968/9 6 rue Paul Baudry, 75008 Paris, France Tel: +33 153 936 600 Fax: +33 153 936 603 111 West 57th Street, New York NY10019 Tel 1 212 541 0500 Fax 1 212 541 9378 60/F Central Plaza 18 Harbour Road, Wanchai, Hong Kong Tel 852 2585 3888 Fax 852 2802 7638 Other commercial oces: Chicago, Frankfurt, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Singapore Subscription service For our latest subscription offers, visit Economist.com/offers For subscription service, please contact by telephone, fax, web or mail at the details provided below: Telephone: 1 800 456 6086 (from outside the US and Canada, 1 314 447 8091) Facsimile: 1 866 856 8075 (from outside the US and Canada, 1 314 447 8065) Web: Economistsubs.com E-mail: customerhelp@economist.com Post: The Economist Subscription Services, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978, USA Subscription for 1 year (51 issues) United States US$138 Canada CN$189 Argentina US$287 Mexico US$240 Rest of Latin America US$264 PEFC/29-31-75 PEFC certied This copy of The Economist is printed on paper sourced from sustainably managed forests certied by PEFC www.pefc.org © 2010 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 111 W.57th St., New York, NY 10019-2211. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing oces. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , MO. 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by RR Donnelley, Strasburg, VA. 22657
Turmoil in Iran increased after security forces red on antigovernment demonstrators in several cities. State television said that eight people had died, including a nephew of last June’s thwarted presidential candidate, Mir Hosein Mousavi. More than a thousand people were reportedly arrested, including a former foreign minister. Divisions in the ruling clerical establishment deepened. Barack Obama ordered an investigation into why America’s security apparatus failed to stop a man from boarding a jet in Amsterdam, which he then allegedly tried to blow up as it made its nal approach to Detroit on Christmas Day. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab was overpowered by fellow passengers after he attempted to detonate explosives on the plane, causing a re. An al- Qaeda-aliated group in Yemen claimed responsibility. At least 38 people died in clashes between the police and members of a radical Islamist sect called Kala Kato in Nigeria’s north-eastern state of Bauchi. The violence started when police tried to enforce a ban on open-air preaching. The UN imposed sanctions on Eritrea to punish it for backing Islamist militias in Somalia. Governments in the region, along with the African Union, have been demanding such measures for several months. A South Korean consortium beat French, American and Japanese rivals to win a coveted $40 billion contract to build and run four nuclear reactors in the United Arab Emirates, which will form part of the rst civilian nuclear-energy project in the Arab world. Mr Obama and his fellow Democrats were condent of passing a signicant reform of health care in early 2010 after the Senate voted, along party lines, in favour of a bill. Dierences between legislation in the Senate and the House need to be thrashed out before the president gets a bill to sign. The share prices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac soared in response to the Treasury’s recent decision to remove limits on the amount of federal aid to the companies. Fannie and Freddie, America’s biggest government-sponsored enterprises, were bailed out in 2008 amid huge mortgage losses. The amount of public money each could obtain was capped at $200 billion (neither has received that amount), but the Treasury now wants to leave no uncertainty about its commitment to the rms. In a setback for President Álvaro Uribe’s security policy, Colombia’s FARC guerrillas kidnapped and killed the governor of Caquetá department, south-east of Bogotá. Just hours after his funeral, the mother and three other grieving relatives of a soldier who died during a government raid that killed Arturo Beltrán Leyva, one of Mexico’s top drug-trackers, were murdered in a revenge attack that shocked Mexicans. At a ceremony in Ushuaia in Tierra del Fuego, two Argentine men became the rst gay people in Latin America to get married. Meanwhile, Mexico City’s legislature voted to legalise gay marriage. The candidate of the ruling party was eliminated in the rst round of Croatia’s presidential election, suggesting that voters are grumpy despite more steps towards joining the European Union. In mid- December Serbia, Croatia’s neighbour, formally applied to join the EU. In a sign of renewed tension between the Turkish army and the government, eight special-forces soldiers were briey arrested for allegedly plotting to assassinate a senior politician from the ruling Justice and Development (AK) party. The Basel committee on banking supervision, which sets capital standards for banks around the world, published a consultation document on December 17th that was more stringent than many bankers had expected. Among other things, the committee is calling for a shake-up in the way banks’ capital is measured. Liu Xiaobo, one of China’s best-known political dissidents, was sentenced to 11 years in prison for inciting subversion. Mr Liu had been instrumental in drafting a petition in December 2008 known as Charter 08, calling for radical political reform. The Economist January 2nd 2010 5 Akmal Shaikh, a Briton convicted of smuggling heroin into China, was executed by lethal injection in the northwestern region of Xinjiang, despite pleas for a review of the man’s mental health. Gordon Brown said he was appalled. More than 4,000 ethnic Hmong refugees were repatriated from Thailand to Laos, despite fears that some of them might face persecution. More than 40 people were killed in a suicide-bombing in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city, that targeted a procession of Shia Muslims. There were complaints as India tightened rules for longterm tourist visas, after the arrest of a Pakistani American who was accused of involvement in planning the November 2008 attack on Mumbai. He had travelled to India several times. The governor of the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, N.D. Tiwari, resigned after a television news channel aired pictures purporting to show him having sex in the company of three women. Mr Tiwari is 84. Other economic data and news can be found on pages 69-70
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