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Risk and Foreign Direct Investment - Index of

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<strong>Risk</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Risk</strong>-generating Events 35<br />

across-situation consistency, <strong>and</strong> the degree to which there are group<br />

norms, for example how far investors from one country share a common<br />

risk appetite. Groups <strong>of</strong> decision makers in different countries<br />

can see the same environment in a different way H<strong>of</strong>stede 1991.<br />

Uncertainty acceptance <strong>and</strong> uncertainty avoidance are one <strong>of</strong> the five<br />

scales by which H<strong>of</strong>stede identified cultural differences between societies,<br />

indicating the significant degree to which risk tolerance differs<br />

from country to country.<br />

All decision makers are <strong>of</strong>ten assumed to be risk or loss averse,<br />

having a limited appetite for risk. The proposition <strong>of</strong> diminishing<br />

marginal utility <strong>of</strong> income provides the underpinning for the general<br />

existence <strong>of</strong> such a risk aversion. The rate <strong>of</strong> diminution may differ<br />

from individual to individual, <strong>and</strong> for decision makers from enterprise<br />

to enterprise. There may also be stretches <strong>of</strong> income where<br />

marginal utility does not decline, in particular there may be very<br />

different attitudes to a loss <strong>and</strong> to a gain.<br />

It is common to conceptualise this risk aversion as one reason for the<br />

existence <strong>of</strong> a risk premium, to be added to the target return which is<br />

expected <strong>of</strong> a particular project. The more risk averse the enterprise,<br />

the greater the risk premium dem<strong>and</strong>ed. Such a sensitivity to risk can<br />

vary over time <strong>and</strong> therefore imply a changing risk premium. For<br />

example, there is evidence that decision makers became more risk<br />

averse after the terror attacks <strong>of</strong> September 2001 (Fan 2004; White <strong>and</strong><br />

Fan 2004). Another source <strong>of</strong> a risk premium is the riskiness <strong>of</strong> the risk<br />

environment, tempered by the degree <strong>of</strong> exposure <strong>of</strong> the relevant<br />

enterprise. It is usually assumed that the more risky the environment,<br />

the greater the risk premium dem<strong>and</strong>ed <strong>of</strong> a relevant project. The riskiness<br />

<strong>of</strong> the environment <strong>and</strong> risk tolerance are implicitly linked. It is<br />

not always possible to distinguish the influence <strong>of</strong> the two. Effective<br />

risk management requires the taking <strong>of</strong> an explicit attitude to risk <strong>and</strong><br />

the careful consideration <strong>of</strong> the actual riskiness <strong>of</strong> possible outcomes.<br />

The risk appetite reflects six main elements which differentiate the<br />

attitude <strong>of</strong> key decision makers to risk.<br />

• the personality <strong>and</strong> motivation <strong>of</strong> the strategists interacting in the<br />

decision-making process. Some individuals are more risk averse than<br />

others. By definition entrepreneurs have a greater appetite for risk<br />

than the average. In reality, few decision makers can afford to be<br />

deliberate risk takers. Even the most adventurous seek to control<br />

risk. Some are stimulated by the challenge <strong>of</strong> overcoming risk but<br />

always seek to control the level <strong>of</strong> risk to which they are exposed.

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