Automatic Transfer Vehicle ATV Reentry Safety Trajectory ... - Congrex
Automatic Transfer Vehicle ATV Reentry Safety Trajectory ... - Congrex
Automatic Transfer Vehicle ATV Reentry Safety Trajectory ... - Congrex
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Risk Assessment Comparison: ESA/TEC - ACTA<br />
Initial ESA/TEC Risk<br />
Assessment<br />
ACTA Risk Assessment Updated ESA/TEC Risk<br />
Assessment<br />
November 2007 August 2008 September 2008<br />
- Descending re-entry track (expected<br />
trajectory)<br />
- initial mass of 20.1 t (expected mass)<br />
- 131 surviving fragments (60% of initial<br />
mass)<br />
- Explosion occurs at 75km altitude<br />
+/-2km at 1σ<br />
- Does not consider population sheltering<br />
- Fatality Kinetic Energy Threshold = 32J<br />
- Casualty Area ~ 108 m 2<br />
- Descending re-entry track (expected<br />
trajectory)<br />
- initial mass of 12.4 t (expected mass)<br />
- 214 surviving fragments (25% of initial<br />
mass)<br />
- Explosion at 78km altitude (nominal<br />
case, otherwise between [68 ; 84km])<br />
- Considers population sheltering<br />
- Fatality Kinetic Energy Threshold = 79J<br />
- Casualty Area ~ 205 m 2<br />
- Descending re-entry track (actual<br />
trajectory)<br />
- initial mass of 13.4 t (actual mass)<br />
- 214 surviving fragments from ACTA<br />
(25% of initial mass)<br />
- Explosion at 78km altitude (nominal<br />
case, otherwise between [68 ; 84km])<br />
- Does not consider population sheltering<br />
- Fatality Kinetic Energy Threshold = 32J<br />
- Casualty Area ~ 205 m 2<br />
P F = 2.0×10 -5 P F = 2.4×10 -5 P F = 4.1×10 -5<br />
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