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THE MARKETING JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTE FOR OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND THE MANAGEMENT SCIENCES
SPECIAL ISSUE: Emergence and Impact of User-Generated Content
Introduction to the Special Issue on the Emergence and Impact of User-Generated Content
Peter S. Fader and Russell S. Winer
369
Online Product Opinions: Incidence, Evaluation, and Evolution
Wendy W. Moe and David A. Schweidel
372
Network Characteristics and the Value of Collaborative User-Generated Content
Sam Ransbotham, Gerald C. Kane, and Nicholas H. Lurie
387
Evaluating Promotional Activities in an Online Two-Sided Market of User-Generated Content
Paulo Albuquerque, Polykarpos Pavlidis, Udi Chatow, Kay-Yut Chen, and Zainab Jamal
406
Content Contributor Management and Network Effects in a UGC Environment
Kaifu Zhang, Theodoros Evgeniou, V. Padmanabhan, and Emile Richard
433
Sequential and Temporal Dynamics of Online Opinion
David Godes and José C. Silva
448
User-Generated Open Source Products: Founder’s Social Capital and Time to Product Release
Girish Mallapragada, Rajdeep Grewal, and Gary Lilien
474
Designing Ranking Systems for Hotels on Travel Search Engines by Mining User-Generated and Crowdsourced Content
Anindya Ghose, Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis, and Beibei Li
493
Mine Your Own Business: Market-Structure Surveillance Through Text Mining
Oded Netzer, Ronen Feldman, Jacob Goldenberg, and Moshe Fresko
521
Focus on Authors
544
Volume 31 • Number 3 • May–June 2012

Marketing Science, a journal sponsored
by the Institute for Operations
Research and the Management
Sciences (INFORMS), invites authors
to submit their best marketingoriented
research for peer review.
EDITORIAL STATEMENT
Although our primary focus is on articles
that answer important research questions in
marketing using mathematical modeling, we
also consider publishing many other different
types of manuscripts. These manuscripts
include empirical papers reporting
significant findings (but without any specific
contribution to modeling), papers describing
applications (emphasizing implementation
issues), behaviorally oriented papers
that contribute (theoretically or
empirically) to the understanding of
and/or lead to the development of
mathematical models, and scholarly papers
reporting developments (in fundamental
disciplines) of interest to marketing (see
http://mktsci.pubs.informs.org/ for more).
Manuscripts should report the results of
studies that make significant contributions.
Contributions can include significant
substantive findings, improvements in
modeling methods, meaningful theoretical
developments, important methodological
advances, tests of existing theories,
comparisons of methods, and empirical
investigations.
Marketing Science promises to provide
constructive, fair, and timely reviews with
the goal of identifying the best submissions
for ultimate publication in the Journal.
We encourage you to consider Marketing
Science as an outlet for your research.
SUBMISSIONS
Authors preparing manuscripts for Marketing
Science should follow the format of the
articles in this issue. Readability for
the desired audience of the manuscript
is one important criterion in the review
process. We encourage authors to write
for a broad target audience. (For more
information, see guidelines at http://mktsci
.pubs.informs.org/.)
• Reviews are double blind.
• All manuscripts (initial and revised)
must be submitted using the online
system, Manuscript Central—http://mc
.manuscriptcentral.com/mksc.
• Since Manuscript Central collects all of
the author information, all material that
identifies the author must be removed from
the manuscript in advance of submission.
• Submissions may be uploaded to
Manuscript Central in Microsoft Word
(.doc) or .pdf format.
• The title, abstract (approximately
100–200 words), and keywords should
appear on the first page of the submitted
manuscript.
• The text, which should start on page 2,
should be double-spaced with 1-inch margins
and be typed in a 12-point font. Suggested
length depends on the type of submission.
Regular manuscripts usually are less than 35
pages of text.
• Please place tables, figures, and footnotes
either in the text or at the end and make
sure the are appropriately referenced within
the manuscript.
• Provide bibliographic references in the
text by last name and year of publication.
Please use initials and last name of the
authors in the reference list.
• If a manuscript is accepted for publication,
you will be contacted by the Managing Editor
to upload the required forms to Manuscript
Central.
STATEMENT OF EDITORIAL
POLICIES
We first evaluate each manuscript on
readability and whether it provides a
significant original contribution on an
important topic. The contribution may differ
according to the type of manuscript (see
http://mktsci.pubs.informs.org/.) When a
manuscript passes this initial evaluation,
the Editor-in-Chief assigns reviewers, who
evaluate the quality of the logic, methods,
and evidence found in the manuscript. The
reviewers also determine whether the
manuscript is missing critical information
necessary for them to complete their
reviews. Finally, the Editor-in-Chief, with the
help of the area editor, makes a decision on
the manuscript. All reviews are double
blind, and anonymous participants only play
advisory roles. We encourage reviewers to
be constructive, fair, and timely, with the goal
of identifying the best of these submissions
for ultimate publication.
The primary focus of the journal is on
articles that answer important research
questions in marketing using mathematical
modeling. However, the journal is
receptive to a diverse set of scientific
approaches, including surveys, experiments,
aggregate data analyses, deductive analyses,
comprehensive reviews, well-documented
applications, and novel implications of
developments in other literatures.
Ultimately, we seek to reach a diverse
audience well beyond academics in
quantitative marketing. It is unnecessary,
however, for every article to reach a
diverse audience. However, in evaluating
individual manuscripts, we will consider
the ultimate audience for the article (e.g.,
marketing managers, general managers,
public policy makers, regulators, consumers,
consultants, market research professionals,
other disciplines, etc.) and require evidence
that the research can impact at least that
audience.
The best manuscripts provide significant new
knowledge or fundamental understanding
that has the potential to allow their target
audience to make superior decisions or take
superior actions. For example, a theoretical
manuscript might provide conditions in
which apparently inferior alternatives are
shown to be optimal. A methodological
manuscript might provide a new method
that leads to better actions than existing
methods. A substantive manuscript might
provide empirical regularities that suggest
new, previously unknown actions. An
empirical investigation might explain why
some firms perform better than others.
A behaviorally oriented manuscript may
discover a finding that questions the results
of, or leads to, new mathematical models.
Such studies should contain sufficient detail
to allow the reader to evaluate the method
and replicate the results.
ORIGINALITY
By submitting any manuscript, the author
certifies that the manuscript is not
copyrighted and is not currently under
review for any journal or conference
proceedings. If the manuscript (or any part
of it) has appeared, or will appear, in another
publication of any kind, all details must be
provided to the editor in chief at the time of
submission.
As a condition of final acceptance of a paper
for publication in Marketing Science, the
author(s) must indicate if their paper is
posted on a working paper website, other
than their own. They are responsible for
assuring that, if any part of the paper has
been copyrighted for prepublication as a
working paper, the copyright can and will be
transferred to INFORMS when the paper
has been accepted. This includes both print
and electronic forms of the paper. Authors
may post their working papers on websites
after acceptance and prior to publication, as
long as the sites are not copyrighted or do
not serve as formal repositories.
We require that at least one of the authors
of each accepted manuscript sign a copyright
transfer form.
ARTICLES IN ADVANCE
For timely distribution of research, Marketing
Science provides Articles in Advance, the early
release of articles before they are assigned
to an issue. The articles have been approved
by the editors, copyedited, typeset, and the
final proofs have been reviewed by authors.
The content of the Articles in Advance version
is the version of record. Articles will remain
on Articles in Advance until selected for an
issue by the journal’s editor-in-chief. At that
time, minor mechanical and typesetting
corrections to the article text may be made
to accommodate the printed issue.
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SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES
Marketing Science (ISSN 0732-2399)
is a bimonthly journal published by the
Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences at 7240 Parkway
Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076.
2012 subscription prices for U.S.
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Copyright 2012
Printed in the United States of America

THE MARKETING JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTE FOR OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND THE MANAGEMENT SCIENCES
MARKETING
SCIENCE
Contents • Volume 31 • Number 3 • May–June 2012
http://mktsci.journal.informs.org
SPECIAL ISSUE: Emergence and Impact of User-Generated Content
Introduction to the Special Issue on the Emergence and Impact of User-Generated Content
Peter S. Fader and Russell S. Winer
369
Online Product Opinions: Incidence, Evaluation, and Evolution
Wendy W. Moe and David A. Schweidel
The authors model the individual decision to post an online product opinion and show how
online opinions evolve as a function of social dynamics.
372
Network Characteristics and the Value of Collaborative User-Generated Content
Sam Ransbotham, Gerald C. Kane, and Nicholas H. Lurie
The value of collaborative user-generated content is a function of both the direct effects of its contributors
and its embeddedness in the content–contributor network that creates it.
387
Evaluating Promotional Activities in an Online Two-Sided Market of User-Generated Content
Paulo Albuquerque, Polykarpos Pavlidis, Udi Chatow, Kay-Yut Chen, and Zainab Jamal
The authors measure the value of promotional activities and referrals by content creators to an online platform of user-generated content.
406
Content Contributor Management and Network Effects in a UGC Environment
Kaifu Zhang, Theodoros Evgeniou, V. Padmanabhan, and Emile Richard
This paper measures the financial values of the acquisition/retention of content contributors in addition to content consumers.
433
Sequential and Temporal Dynamics of Online Opinion
David Godes and José C. Silva
The authors investigate the existing, and underlying, causes of dynamic patterns in online reviews along both time and sequence.
448
Vol. 31, No. 3, May–June 2012, pp. i–ii
ISSN 0732-2399 (print) ISSN 1526-548X (online)
User-Generated Open Source Products: Founder’s Social Capital and Time to Product Release
Girish Mallapragada, Rajdeep Grewal, and Gary Lilien
How project founder’s social capital impacts open source project success.
474
(Continues on page ii)
Marketing Science
© 2012 INFORMS

MARKETING
SCIENCE
Designing Ranking Systems for Hotels on Travel Search Engines by Mining User-Generated and Crowdsourced Content
Anindya Ghose, Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis, and Beibei Li
This paper provides a new ranking system for product search engines by mining user-generated and crowdsourced content.
493
Mine Your Own Business: Market-Structure Surveillance Through Text Mining
Oded Netzer, Ronen Feldman, Jacob Goldenberg, and Moshe Fresko
The authors propose a method for creating market structure maps by “listening” to consumer-generated content.
521
Focus on Authors
544

Office of the Editor
EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
Professor Preyas S. Desai
Spencer R. Hassell Professor of Business Administration
The Fuqua School of Business
Duke University
100 Fuqua Drive
Durham, NC 27708
E-mail: desai@duke.edu
ASSOCIATE EDITORS
Bart J. Bronnenberg, Tilburg University
Yuxin Chen, Northwestern University
Anne T. Coughlan, Northwestern University
Jean-Pierre Dubé, University of Chicago
Peter S. Fader, University of Pennsylvania
Fred Feinberg, University of Michigan
Teck-Hua Ho, University of California, Berkeley
Ganesh Iyer, University of California, Berkeley
Barbara Kahn, University of Pennsylvania
Dmitri Kuksov, Washington University in St. Louis
EDITORIAL BOARD
Kusum L. Ailawadi, Dartmouth College
Wilfred Amaldoss, Duke University
Eric T. Anderson, Northwestern University
Rick L. Andrews, University of Delaware
Asim Ansari, Columbia University
Neeraj Arora, University of Wisconsin
Subramanian Balachander, Purdue University
Barry L. Bayus, University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill
David R. Bell, University of Pennsylvania
Eyal Biyalogorsky, IDC Herzliya
Peter Boatwright, Carnegie Mellon University
Anand Bodapati, University of California,
Los Angeles
Douglas Bowman, Emory University
Michael Braun, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Randolph E. Bucklin, University of California,
Los Angeles
Tony Haitao Cui, University of Minnesota
Peter Danaher, Monash University
Marnik G. Dekimpe, Tilburg University, Catholic
University Leuven
Min Ding, Pennsylvania State University
Michaela Draganska, Stanford University
Anthony Dukes, University of Southern California
Shantanu Dutta, University of Southern California
Sri Devi Duvvuri, SUNY at Buffalo
Anita Elberse, Harvard University
Scott Fay, Syracuse University
Hubert Gatignon, INSEAD
David Godes, University of Maryland
Jacob Goldenberg, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
SCIENCE-TO-PRACTICE COMMITTEE
Gary L. Lilien, Pennsylvania State University
Puneet Manchanda, University of Michigan
Leigh McAlister, University of Texas at Austin
Sanjog Misra, University of Rochester
Eitan Muller, Tel Aviv University and
New York University
Chakravarthi Narasimhan, Washington University
Scott A. Neslin, Dartmouth College
Gary Russell, University of Iowa
Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto
Rajdeep Grewal, Pennsylvania State University
Liang Guo, Hong Kong University of Science and
Technology
Sachin Gupta, Cornell University
Sunil Gupta, Harvard Business School
Wesley Hartmann, Stanford University
Ernan Haruvy, University of Texas at Dallas
Chuan He, University of Colorado at Boulder
Charles Ingene, University of Mississippi
J. Jeffrey Inman, University of Pittsburgh
Sanjay Jain, Texas A&M University
Wolfgang Jank, University of Maryland
Ajay Kalra, Rice University
Pallassana (P. K.) Kannan, University of Maryland
Oded Koenigsberg, Columbia University
Praveen K. Kopalle, Dartmouth College
Laura Kornish, University of Colorado at Boulder
Aradhna Krishna, University of Michigan
Lakshman Krishnamurthi, Northwestern
University
Nanda Kumar, University of Texas at Dallas
V. Kumar, Georgia State University
Donald R. Lehmann, Columbia University
Yong Liu, University of Arizona
Dina Mayzlin, Yale University
Nitin Mehta, University of Toronto
Carl Mela, Duke University
Paul R. Messinger, University of Alberta
Natalie Mizik, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Prasad A. Naik, University of California, Davis
Harikesh Nair, Stanford University
Duncan I. Simester, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
K. Sudhir, Yale University
Gerard Tellis, University of Southern California
Christophe Van den Bulte, University of
Pennsylvania
J. Miguel Villas-Boas, University of California,
Berkeley
Michel Wedel, University of Maryland
Z. John Zhang, University of Pennsylvania
Sridhar Narayanan, Stanford University
Elie Ofek, Harvard University
Amit Pazgal, Rice University
Devavrat Purohit, Duke University
Ram C. Rao, University of Texas at Dallas
Vithala R. Rao, Cornell University
Werner J. Reinartz, University of Cologne
John H. Roberts, University of New South Wales,
London Business School
Miklos Sarvary, INSEAD
Seethu Seetharaman, Washington University
Raj Sethuraman, Southern Methodist University
Ron Shachar, IDC Israel
Venky Shankar, Texas A&M University
Jeff Shulman, University of Washington, Seattle
Vishal Singh, New York University
David Soberman, University of Toronto
Shuba Srinivasan, Boston University
Jan-Benedict Steenkamp, University of
North Carolina
Stefan Stremersch, Erasmus University
Baohong Sun, Cheung Kong Graduate School of
Business (New York)
Rajiv Surendra, National University of Singapore
Olivier Toubia, Columbia University
Harald van Heerde, University of Waikato
Naufel J. Vilcassim, London Business School
Russell S. Winer, New York University
Sha Yang, University of Southern California
Robert Zeithammer, University of California,
Los Angeles
Florian Zettelmeyer, Northwestern University
David Bell, University of Pennsylvania Gary Lilien, Pennsylvania State University David Soberman, University of Toronto
ADVISORY BOARD
Pradeep Chintagunta, University of Chicago
Dominique Hanssens, University of California,
Los Angeles
John R. Hauser, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Jagmohan Raju, University of Pennsylvania
EMERITUS EDITORIAL BOARD (including some very active past editors and area editors)
William Boulding, Duke University
Eric T. Bradlow, University of Pennsylvania
John R. Hauser, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Abel P. Jeuland, University of Chicago
Barbara E. Kahn, University of Pennsylvania
Wagner A. Kamakura, Duke University
MANAGING EDITOR
Frances Moskwa
E-mail: frances.moskwa@informs.org
Vol. 31, No. 3, May–June 2012, p. iii
ISSN 0732-2399 (print) ISSN 1526-548X (online)
Rajiv Lal, Harvard University
Donald G. Morrison, University of California,
Los Angeles
Brian T. Ratchford, University of Texas at Dallas
Peter E. Rossi, University of Chicago
Subrata K. Sen, Yale University
Steven M. Shugan, University of Florida
PRODUCTION EDITOR
Stephanie Myers
INFORMS
7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300
Hanover, Maryland 21076
Phone: (443) 757-3575
E-mail: stephanie.myers@informs.org
Kannan Srinivasan, Carnegie Mellon University
Richard Staelin, Duke University
V. (Seenu) Srinivasan, Stanford University
Richard Staelin, Duke University
Charles B. Weinberg, University of British Columbia
Marketing Science
© 2012 INFORMS

Call for Papers
Special Issue of Management Science:
Business Analytics
Coeditors
Dimitris Bertsimas Eric Bradlow Noah Gans Alok Gupta
Massachusetts Institute of Technology University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania University of Minnesota
Submission deadline: September 16, 2012
Expected publication date: First Quarter 2014
Organizations today have access to enormous data sets, and sophisticated business analytical tools
are needed to harness the tremendous potential of these data to improve day-to-day decision making.
To encourage further developments in this rapidly growing area of interdisciplinary research,
Management Science will publish a special issue dedicated to business analytics.
Applications of business analytics extend to nearly all managerial functions in an organization.
Using microlevel data, mathematical models can become more realistic, be validated more easily,
and match more closely true behavioral phenomena. Through business analytics, historical data
can be used to discover relationships among important elements in an organization’s environment,
make more formal statistical inferences regarding the structure or strength of these relationships, and
improve actions taken by the organization. Because these relationships are often not static, the entire
cycle of identification, estimation, prediction, and decision making is repeated frequently and on an
ongoing basis, leading to real-time and highly targeted data-driven decisions.
We envision business analytics applied to many domains, including, but surely not limited to:
digital market design and operation; network and social-graph analysis; pricing and revenue management;
targeted marketing and customer relationship management; fraud and security; sports and
entertainment; retailing to healthcare to financial services to many other industries. We seek novel
modeling and empirical work which includes, among others, probability modeling, structural empirical
models, and/or optimization methods.
Submission: Please submit your manuscript online via http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/ms. You
must select “Special Issue” as the Manuscript Type in Step 1 and select one of the issue’s four
coeditors in Step 5. Manuscripts will generally be assigned to one of the Associate Editors for this
issue (see below; please recommend three in Step 4), but you may also recommend guest Associate
Editors.
Associate Editors
Alessandro Acquisti, CMU Chris Forman, Georgia Tech Paat Rusmevichientong, USC
Gedas Adomavicius, Minnesota Anindya Ghose, NYU Gary Russell, Iowa
Asim Ansari, Columbia Kartik Hosanagar, Penn Haipeng Shen, UNC
Sinan Aral, NYU Garud Iyengar, Columbia Melvyn Sim, NUS
Ravi Bapna, Minnesota Anton Kleywegt, Georgia Tech Peng Sun, Duke
Omar Besbes, Columbia Retsef Levi, MIT Yong Tan, Washington
J.-P. Dubé, Chicago Carl Mela, Duke Chung Piaw Teo, NUS
Laurent El Ghaoui, UC Berkeley Ciamac Moallemi, Columbia Huseyin Topaloglu, Cornell
Theos Evgeniou, INSEAD Harikesh Nair, Stanford Olivier Toubia, Columbia
Vivek Farias, MIT Georgia Perakis, MIT Yong-Pin Zhou, Washington
Fred Feinberg, Michigan

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Board of Directors and Editors for 2012
President
Terry P. Harrison
Pennsylvania State University
Smeal College of Business
President-Elect
Anne G. Robinson
Verizon Wireless
Basking Ridge, New Jersey
Past-President
Rina R. Schneur
Verizon Laboratories
Waltham, Massachusetts
Secretary
Brian Denton
North Carolina State University
Department of Industrial and Systems
Engineering
Treasurer
Nicholas G. Hall
Ohio State University
Department of Management Sciences
Vice President–Chapters/Student
Chapters/Fora
Olga Raskina
Con-way Freight
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Vice President–Education
Joel Sokol
Georgia Institute of Technology
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial
and Systems Engineering
Vice President–Information Technology
Bjarni Kristjansson
Maximal Software Inc.
Arlington, Virginia
Vice President–International Activities
Jionghua (Judy) Jin
University of Michigan
Department of Industrial and
Operations Engineering
Vice President–Marketing,
Communications, & Outreach
E. Andrew (Andy) Boyd
University of Houston
Department of Industrial Engineering
Vice President–Meetings
William (Bill) Klimack
Kromite LLC
The Woodlands, Texas
Vice President–Membership &
Professional Recognition
Özlem Ergun
Georgia Institute of Technology
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial
and Systems Engineering
Vice President–Practice Activities
Jack Levis
United Parcel Service
Timonium, Maryland
Vice President–Publications
Linda Argote
Carnegie Mellon University
Tepper School of Business
Vice President–Sections/Societies
Barrett W. Thomas
University of Iowa
Tippie College of Business
Executive Director
Melissa Moore
INFORMS
Hanover, Maryland
Editors
Decision Analysis
L. Robin Keller
University of California, Irvine
The Paul Merage School of Business
Information Systems Research
Ritu Agarwal
University of Maryland
Robert H. Smith School of Business
INFORMS Journal on Computing
John W. Chinneck
Carleton University
Department of Systems and Computer
Engineering
INFORMS Online
Kevin Geraghty
360i
Atlanta, Georgia
INFORMS Transactions on Education
James J. Cochran
Louisiana Tech University
Department of Marketing and Analysis
Interfaces
Srinivas Bollapragada
General Electric Global Research Center
Niskayuna, New York
Management Science
Gérard P. Cachon
University of Pennsylvania
The Wharton School
Manufacturing & Service Operations
Management
Stephen C. Graves
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Marketing Science
Preyas S. Desai
Duke University
The Fuqua School of Business
Mathematics of Operations Research
Jiangang (Jim) Dai (Interim Editor)
Georgia Institute of Technology
School of Industrial and Systems
Engineering
Operations Research
Stefanos Zenios
Stanford University
Graduate School of Business
Organization Science
Daniel A. Levinthal
University of Pennsylvania
The Wharton School
Service Science
Robin Qiu
Pennsylvania State University
Division of Engineering and
Information Science
Transportation Science
Michel Gendreau
Université de Montréal
Centre for Research on Transportation
Tutorials in Operations Research
J. Cole Smith
University of Florida
Department of Industrial and Systems
Engineering
IAOR Editor-in-Chief
K. Preston White Jr.
University of Virginia
Department of Systems and
Information Engineering
IAOR Associate Editor
N. Peter Whitehead
University of Virginia
Department of Systems and
Information Engineering
IAOR Associate Contributing Editors
for INFORMS Journals
Bradford D. Allen
Lasell College
Mahyar Amouzegar
RAND Corporation
John Charnes
University of Kansas
T. Eugene Day
Washington University
Thomas Fletcher
Alion Corporation
James K. Higginson
University of Windsor
Benjamin Lev
Drexel University
Douglas J. Morrice
The University of Texas at Austin
Frederic Murphy
Temple University
Susan Palocsay
James Madison University
William T. Scherer
University of Virginia

Marketing Science focuses on articles that
answer important research questions in
marketing. We often employ a rigorous mathematical
modeling approach aimed at improving the actions
of marketing decision makers. We also seek a deeper
understanding of marketing phenomena. Our articles
report significant findings and methodological
advances related to many marketing topics including
pricing, new products, channels, promotions,
salesforce management, buyer behavior, product
lines, forecasting, advertising, competitive strategy,
services marketing, targetability, and segmentation.
For more information, please visit our website:
http://mktsci.pubs.informs.org.