FTTH - Localret

Joeri Van Bogaert
President

AGENDA

FTTH Council Europe

FTTH Council Europe

FTTH Faces 2008
Joeri Van Bogaert
LEONI NBG
Fiber-Optics
FTTH Council President
Wolfgang Fischer
Cisco
Member of the board
Sophie Pautonnier
Mitsubishi
Treasurer &
Member of the board
Board Chairs Team
Kathleen de Smedt
Alcatel-Lucent
Member of the board
Karel Helsen
Draka Comteq
Member of the board
Roberto Santini
Kocsisi
Emtelle
Member of the board
Christian Emborg
DKT
Member of the Board
Christian Ollivry
Motorola
Member of the Board
Galit Wellner
ECI Tele
Member of the Board
Simon Aspinall
Cisco
Chair of Network &
Service Revenue Committee
Chris Holden
Corning
Chair of Deployement &
Operations Committee
Joannes De Wilde
Chair of Sustainable
Development Committee
Olivier Danthine
GNS
Chair of Policy &
Regulation Committee
Floyd Wagner
Motorola
Chair of Market
Intelligence Committee
Albert Grooten
Draka Comteq
Chair of Economics
adhoc Committee
Hartwig Tauber
Director General
Marie-Alix Lebrun
Secretariat
Sally Van den bemden
Communications Fellow

FTTH Council Europe Members
3M Telecommunications - Acome - ADC KRONE - AFL Europe - Agilent Technologies -
Aksh Optifibre - Alcatel-Lucent - Allied Telesyn - BAM Infratechniek - Bael Ingenieria -
Bechtel - BKtel Communications - Broadlight - Cable Telecommunications Training
Services - Catway Lan System - Channel - Cisco Systems - Citinet Espania –
Comptoir des Signaux - Corning - Dantex Plastrør - Dätwyler Cables - DKT - Draka
Comteq - DSM Desotech - Duraline - ECI Telecom - Egeplast - EMC Electronic Media
Communication - Emtelle - Enablence Technologies Inc. - Ericsson - Exfo Europe -
Fibox Oy - Fibre Fab - Fraunhofer Institut - Freescale Semiconductor - Gabo
Systemtechnik - Genexis - Gerald Glaise - GM Plast – GNS - Hellermann Tyton - Hitachi
Communication Technologies - Huber+Suhner - ICTL Optical Links - Ignis Photonyx -
IMC Fachhochschule Krems - Intel - Iskratel - JDSU - Kabel-X - Kathrein-Werke -
LEONI NBG Fiber Optics - Mitsubishi Electric - Motorola - Mulder-Hardenberg -
NetAdmin Systems - Nexans - OFS - Optral - PacketFront - Plumettaz - Preformed Line
Products - Prysmian - RDM - Senko - Nokia Siemens - Scheu Netzplanung - Silec Cable
- Sterlite Optical Technologies - Telec International - Teleste - Tilgin – Triax - TVC UK
Holding - Twentsche Kabelfabriek - Tyco Electronics - Uponor/Radius - Volex Europe -
Volker Wessels Telecom - Wavin - World Wide Packets - ZTE Corporation

FTTH Worldwide

Global ranking
• Joint project of the three FTTH-Councils worldwide
• Based on market-research of the councils, using the
FTTH-Council FTTH-Definitions Document
• Ranking: Percentage of households in a
country/economy that have a FTTH-connection
(subscribers)
• All countries with more than 1% FTTH-penetrations are
included

FTTx Definitions
Included
• FTTHome – Complete Fiber Path to Home
– in-building cables: house copper or fiber or wireless
• FTTBuilding – Fiber to Apartment / Office Building
– in-building cables: building copper or fiber regarded as a transitional
stage to FTTH
• Both defined in 2006 FTTH Council, FTTH Definitions Document
– http://www.ftthcouncil.org/?t=83&search_key=ftth+definitions
Not Included
• FTTCurb / FTTNode – Fiber to Street Cabinet
– distribution and drop cables using telco copper (DSL) or new copper
– categorised as DSL technologies.

FTTH Worldwide June 2008
~3.2M
~1.3M ~24M
...and FTTH continues to grow

Global FTTH/FTTB Ranking
>> Economies with the Highest Penetration of Fiber-to-the-Home / Building+LAN
Mid-Year 2008 Ranking
Source: Fiber-to-the-Home Council – Jul 08

FTTH in Japan
• FTTH-subscribers exceed 10 million households
• Nearly 300,000 new subscribers per month
• DSL migrates to FTTH: number of DSL-subscribers
decrease since Q02/06
• Nearly 60,000 subscribers per month switch from
DSL to FTTH
>> Broadband-Subscribers in Japan
Source: www.soumu.go.jp

FTTH in USA
• FTTH-subscribers exceed 3 million households
• More than 10 million households passed
• FTTH-growth-rate more than 100%
>> North America: FTTH Homes Connected
Source: www.soumu.go.jp

FTTH in Europe

deployment
Early adopters
2000
Communities &
Utility comp.
2002
Major European
cities
2006
2007-20xx
>> FTTH WW development Europe
Incumbent
operators
time

FTTH in Europe
Status December 2007
• Over 1 Mio. Subscribers,
5 Mio. Homes passed
• 80% of subscribers
in just 4 countries
• Majority of projects are
driven by municipalities
and utility-companies
Source: FTTH-Council Europe/IDATE 2008

FTTH in Europe
Source: FTTH-Council Europe/IDATE 2008

FTTH in Europe
2008: Europe moves forward
• France: major deployments in the big cities
• Netherlands: continue to deploy fibre
• Denmark: power-utility-companies deploy fibre
• Switzerland: Zurich starts FTTH-project
• Germany: municipalities and power-utility-companies start to
deploy FTTH
• Slovenia: incumbent deploys FTTH in whole country –
“newcomer” in global ranking
• Europe: in the majority of the EU-countries FTTH is still not
happening!

FTTH Market Forecast

European FTTH Forecast
Source: FTTH-Council Europe/Heavy Reading, 2008
20

Conected Households, 0s
APAC FTTH Forecast
1170
1901
3346
Source: FTTH-Council Europe/Heavy Reading, January, 2008
5538
9234
15056
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
21

FTTH Broadband Bandwidth Usage

Basic Questions
• Is FTTH-bandwidth needed?
• Is FTTH-bandwidth used?
• Is FTTH-bandwidth demanded?
Study to examine theses questions from a
technological point of view

Hypothesis and Results
Nielson’s law:
“The end-user connections-speeds will grow by 50% per
year”
The law was first tested from the supply-side:
• The growth rate of 50% per annum held true for most
European countries
Then the law was tested from the usage-perspective:
• The growth rate of high speed bandwidth usage is
growing at an annual rate of 20%

Broadband Usage - Ventura
Poland is doing well but illustrates a simplification in Nielsen’s
Law
• Poland is a perfect example for Nielsen’s Law
• Other countries have even faster (Sweden) or slightly slower
increase (Spain)
• Logarithmic extrapolation works neraly in all countries
Source: Ventura
*

Broadband Usage - Ventura
Fibred homes already generate 3x the traffic per home of ADSL
>> Inbound traffic Mbits/sec/Sub – 24hr average
• While most of the world is on ADSL, fibre traffic is limited.
• As fibre speed applications become more common, expect 50% pa traffic growth.
Source: Ventura - Remark: ADSL average was devised from operators with predominantly ADSL, with limited / no fibre.

Summary
• European broadband speeds are rising at 50%+
per annum.
• High end broadband usage per home is growing at
20% per annum.
• FTTH broadband homes drive 3x more traffic than
ADSL in Europe.
• End users use higher bandwidth as soon as it is
provided!

FTTH and Regulation

Regulatory Framework
• Regulation vs. Public policy
• A stable and predictable regulatory and public policy
environment is key to enabling FTTH investment
• The current Regulatory Framework is being reviewed;
to conclude in Summer 2008?
• We are pleased to see that Next Generation Access is
a major component of the Review
• The Council has developed a strong pro-investment
position

Regulatory Framework
FTTH Council Europe calls on the Commission
to provide a regulatory framework with:
I. A coordinated and coherent industrial policy.
– A clear incentive for the large-scale investment
required for deploying end-to-end FTTH solutions at
mass-market levels.
– “Technology neutrality" rationale is already taking a bias

Regulatory Framework
II. Clear and precise rules, in order to support a
rapidly evolving sector:
– Prioritization between the different rationales
– Hierarchy of remedies
– A well-defined ladder of investment for the operators
(both incumbents and competitors) who are willing to
invest in NGA.

Regulatory Framework
I. Encourage investment in infrastructure at the lowest
sustainable level starting from the passive infrastructure.
– Prefer infrastructure-based competition over service-based
competition
– Duct sharing
– Redefinition of the local loop; a new market for physical
passive infrastructure
– In “Policy driven” areas state aid and public intervention
will be necessary...
– ... while "market driven" areas should be left to competition
rules.
– In the “grey areas”, the regulatory intervention should be
gradated starting from the lowest physical element

Geographical segmentation

FTTH and Bandwidth

The story of bandwith
• Average Speed of Broadband-Customers (Verizon, US):
2.5 Mbit/s DSL-Customers
5.2 Mbit/s FIOS (FTTH) – Customers
>> Is FTTH necessary for 5.2 Mbit/s?

The story of bandwith
• Average Speed of a car:
39.11 km/h in US (University of California)
24.5 km/h in UK (Oxford University)
>> Are modern cars necessary for 24.5 km/h?

The story of bandwith
• Download of a 6.5 Gbyte DVD-film:
10 Mbit/s DSL: 1.44 hours
100 Mbit/s FTTH: 8.6 min

The story of bandwith
• Download of a 25 Gbyte HD-film:
10 Mbit/s DSL: 5.5 hours
100 Mbit/s FTTH: 33 min

The story of bandwith

Symmetrical bandwith
• Too much focus on downstream
• Upstream is needed for
a growing number of applications
• FTTH offers symmetrical
bandwidth/high upstream-rates
Upload of 300 holiday-photos (700 Mbyte):
• 1 Mbit/s Upstream: 92 minutes
• 10 Mbit/s Upstream: 9 minutes
• 100 Mbit/s Upstream: 56 seconds
Videoconferencing
Interactive Content
Online-Gaming
Web 2.0
Blog
Teleworking
Multimedia-Upload

FTTH Market-Drivers

FTTH impacts our life
eLeisure
eBusiness
Web 2.0
eGovernment
eHealth
eHome
eEducation
Environmental
Teleworking
Societal

FTTH and leisure
• Standard-Package:
• Unlimited, symmetrical high-speed-internet
• VoIP
• IPTV with multiple (HD)-Channels
• Video on Demand
• Local content
• Interactive TV
• The connected home:
more than just “Triple Play”

FTTH and leisure
• The “Triple-Play-Family” on Friday evening - TODAY:
Service Mbit/s
HD-Stream for Living-Room-TV: 9,0
HD-Stream recorded in parallel 9,0
Standard-TV-Stream in daughters room 2,5
VoD-Music-Clips streamed to PC of son 2,5
Download of MP3-files to PC of son 2,0
Mother having a video-chat with Grandma 1,3
Total 26,3
+20% puffer for permanent video 31,6
source: IMC 2007
• Short peaks for internet-surfing, download of software-updates etc. are not taken into
account
• Bandwidth has to be available stable and with sufficient QoS
• Picture in Picture or other interactive features would increase bandwidth
Source: IMC 2007

The future of IPTV
Source: Keyser Söze
• HDTV is just the
start
• Why re-encode
2K and 4K digital
movies?
• Japan already
works on
UHD-Video
• Which BBtechnology
other than FTTH
will be able
to stream
150-200 Mbit/s?

FTTH enables Knowledge Economy

FTTH Communities & Web 2.0
• User-Centric Content demands
Symmetrical Bandwidth
• Unlimited bandwidth gives
unlimited possibilities to the
communities
• Give the bandwidth to the users
and they will use it
“Second Life”
Virtual
media

FTTH and Sustainable Development

Process SUDEFIB

Project Background
Sustainable Development is defined as development that:
“meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs”.*
The goal was to assess the sustainability aspects of European FTTH
deployments in urban, suburban, and rural scenarios using Life Cycle
Analysis (LCA) methodology
The FTTH Council Europe’s key objectives for this study were:
– Evaluate and understand the environmental impacts from the
implementation of FTTH technology
– Qualify the resulting quality of life enhancements from the point
of view of sustainable development
– Educate stakeholders by providing a new approach for enabling
the promotion and acceleration of FTTH solutions
*United Nations. 1987."Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."

Project Background
Sustainability Business Services (SBS)
of PwC/Ecobilan is a global leader in
providing sustainable business
solutions with:
– Over 500 governance, social,
environmental specialists,
throughout 45 countries;
– a network of over 700
social/ethical compliance
monitors (PwC staff)
conducting supply chain audits
in over 70 countries; and,
– And a large number of
specialists in human resources,
value measurement and
management, and climate
change

Modeling and Life Cycle Tool
The LCA practice, according to ISO 14040/44 consists of:
•Defining a goal and scope for the project: which question is addressed?
What will be the reference for calculations?
•Defining the studied system along the life cycle of the product: braking it into
units for which environment data will be gathered, modelling and processing
the data using software, generating a output – Life Cycle Inventory (“LCI”)
•Making an impact assessment (LCIA)
•Analysing the inventory and impact
assessment results:
contribution analyses
•Drawing interpretations of the results,
through sensitivity analyses,
scenario analyses

Modeling and Life Cycle Tool
• This study is “a cradle to
grave” screening LCA study: it
covers the production steps,
from the raw materials
“in earth” (the cradle)
to the FTTH network end
of life (the grave).
• Ecobilan has modelled the
FTTH network impacts and
associated services savings
using a life-cycle approach with
its proprietary Life Cycle
Assessment (“LCA”) software
tool TEAM.
Cable and passive
equipment production
Transport
Passive fiber network
deployment
Use: Network power
consumption
End of life
Active equipment
production

Modeling and Life Cycle Tool
The study incorporates an analysis of key
variables that influence the amount of resources
consumed by FTTH deployments
Parameters for Scenarios:
•Area type
(urban/suburban/rural)
•Dwelling type
(single home/MDU)
•Installation type
(digging/sewers/etc.)
•Deployment type
(P2P, PON, etc.)

Selected Services
Teleworking, telemedicine and home assistance
have been assessed.
Three cases have been envisioned for
telemedicine: teledialysis, telemedical meetings
and medical imaging transfer.
From the current trends (2010-2011 and beyond)
in FTTH networks use, we have chosen the
following ratios:
•10% of the working population can telework 3
days per week.
•20% of the senior population (75 years old and
over) can benefit from home assistance.

Main Outcomes
>> Phases to climate change potential impacts
4. Passive fiber network
Deployment
78 %
3. Transport
0%
2. Active equipements
production
8%
1. Cable and
Passive equipment
production
7%
5. Network Power
consumption
6. End of life
1%
6%

Main Outcomes
• The environmental impact of the deployment of a typical FTTH network will be
positive in less than 15 years considering only the three selected services
• Beyond its environmental-friendly aspects, FTTH solutions offer serious additional
social and economical benefits
• Regarding the potential greenhouse gas impact, the deployment phase is
predominant and represents approximately 80% of the total impact of FTTH
network
• If we admit the fact that we are in the middle of a new industrial era, FTTH
solutions are a key sustainable utility driver in this context.
• “FTTH networks enable society changes for a sustainable future”…
Just imagine!

FTTH life Cycle Analysis USA

FTTH LCA in USA
• FTTH Council North America did
similar study
• Differences to Europe
• Only telecommuting was
selected as service (no
telemedicine)
• Based on the current trends
(2010-2011and beyond) in NA
FTTH network usage,
assumption that 10% of the
working population can
telecommute 3 days per week
• FTTH-networks are partly
deployed areal on poles

Results in USA
• As a main quantitative finding, the environmental impact of a typical
deployed FTTH network will be positive within an average of less
than 6 years, considering only the savings from telecommuting.
• Existing and/or developing applications will only enhance this result.
• Beyond their environmental-friendly aspects, FTTH solutions can
offer considerable additional social and economical benefits.
• With the assumption of a future low-carbon economy and increased
environmental regulation, FTTH solutions are a key sustainable
utility driver.
• FTTH represents an environmentally positive investment for
telecommunication service providers

FTTH European Success Stories

Case – Free (France)
• What
– Replacement of ADSL2+ by FTTH
• Where & how
– Planned in Paris and everywhere in France where Free/ADSL2+ has
a high market-share
– Free-customers will be upgraded for free, no change in monthly fees
– Free also announced to
open network to other
operators
• FTTH
– Investment planned:
1 billion Euros until 2012

Case – Malarenergi/Vasteras
• What
– One of the first Open-Networks in Sweden
– Combined with a portal of the municipality which provides networkingopportunities,
E-Government and user-support
• Where & how
– City of Vasteras, Sweden
– Built by the local utility company which only operates network and
provides no services
– More than 100 services form
more than 20 serviceproviders
are available
• FTTH
– 35.000 households &
2.000 businesses connected

Case – Reykjavik Energy
• What
– Open Access Network in Iceland, owned by municipalities
– Long-term project with ROI of 14 years – focus on macroeconomic
benefits
• Where & how
– Deployment in and around Reykjavik/Iceland
– Low connections-fee of EUR 25,-- including TV and 100 MBit
– Iceland is in the Global
Ranking
• FTTH
– Plan: 5.300 subscribers/
26.000 homes passed in 2008
– Investment of $100 millions

Case – City of Graz
• What
– FTTH-Network built by Grazer Stadtwerke (utility company)
– Services provided by one selected service-provider
– Full triple-play-offering
• Where & how
– Located in Graz, Austria
– Primary focus on greenfield but also existing households
– 100 Mbit flatrate for each
customer
• FTTH
– 2008: 15.000 homes passed, 1.000 subscribers

Case – Citynet Amsterdam
• What
– FTTH-network initiated by City of Amsterdam
– Built by private companies as an Open Network
• Where & how
– Deployed in Amsterdam, The Netherlands
– Strict Open Access network design, passive network / network-operator /
service provider has to be different companies
– Amsterdam-project was
accepted by European
Commission
• FTTH
– First phase with 40.000
homes passed in progress
– Plan: 420.000 households
and businesses by 2013

Case – Reggefiber
• What
– Private investor built several FTTH-networks in Dutch Cities
– Strong involvement of local people
– Also involved in Citynet Amsterdam
• Where & how
– FTTH in several Cities in The Netherlands
– Dutch Incumbent, KPN bought 41% of
Reggefiber in 2008, option to buy majority
– High quality triple-playofferings
• FTTH
– More than 100.000 customers connected

FTTH Closing

FTTH conclusion

Next conference: Denmark ‘09
More at our next conference:
Denmark >> Copenhagen >> Bella center
11-12 February ’09

FTTH COUNCIL EUROPE
Thank you for your attention!