Inclusion and Resilience

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shows that poor young men are more likely to be out of school and out of work than nonpoor young men. Even when they are employed, the poor are more likely to work in informal, low-paying jobs, while those in higher-income households are more likely to be in formal jobs, as shown in figure 8. Escaping this situation is difficult: figure 9 shows that workers in the bottom quintile in Egypt are less likely to move from a “bad Figure 7 Share of Young Urban Males out of School and out of Work, by Family Wealth, in Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt, Arab Rep., c. 2009–10 Urban males (ages 15–24) out of school and out of work, % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jordan Morocco Egypt, Arab Rep. Q1&2 Q4&5 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the following household surveys: JLMPS, Jordan 2010; SYPE, Egypt 2009; and MHYS, Morocco 2010. For full descriptions, see annex A.1. Note: Q = wealth quintile (1 = lowest, 5 = highest). Figure 8 Work Status of Urban Wage-Employed Men, by Wealth Quintile, in Jordan, Morocco, and Egypt, Arab Rep., 2009–10 Urban males (ages 35–64) who are wage-employed, % 100 80 60 40 20 0 Q1&2 Q4&5 Q1&2 Q4&5 Q1&2 Q4&5 Jordan Morocco Egypt, Arab Rep. Public Private formal Private informal Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the following household surveys: MHYS, Morocco 2010; JLMPS, Jordan 2009; and SYPE, Egypt 2009. For full descriptions, see annex A.1. Note: Q = wealth quintile (1 = lowest, 5 = highest). Key Challenges that Call for Renewed SSNs 13
14 Figure 9 Probability of Transition to a Good or Bad Job in 2009, by Consumption Quintile and Employment Condition of Young Egyptian Males in 2008 Males (ages 15–34) who were employed in 2008, % 100 80 60 40 20 0 22 76 job” (a job that is neither protected nor well paid) to a good job, and they are more likely than wealthier workers to fall out of good-quality jobs into low-quality ones. High Vulnerability to Poverty, without Effective Coping Strategies A large share of the population hovers around the poverty line and exhibits low resilience to shocks. Even those who rode the trajectory of economic growth into the middle class remain vulnerable to the risk of falling back into poverty if an economic contraction takes place. In fact, as many as 15–17 percent of Egyptians, Iraqis, Syrians, and Yemenis and 10 percent of Moroccans have consumption levels that are no more than US$0.50 per day above the US$2 per day poverty line, as shown in figure 10. Vulnerable households have little disposable income and spend a high share of total expenditures on essentials. This implies that these households cannot easily scale down their expenditures during shocks, and thus they can easily move into poverty, as figure 11 illustrates. For instance, between 2005 and 2008, 55 percent of Egyptians experienced at least one episode of poverty or near-poverty (Marotta et al. 2011). There is a high probability of irreversible loss of human capital during shocks and crises if SSNs that help households navigate the effects of such events are The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa 12 84 73 65 Q1&2 Q4&5 Q1&2 Q4&5 Good job 2008 Bad job 2008 Good job 2009 Bad job 2009 Other status 2009 Source: Authors’ calculations based on HIECS, Egypt 2008 and 2009. For full description, see annex A.1. Note: “Good job” is defined as offering social security or with earnings above two-thirds of the median. “Bad job” is defined as informal and with earnings below two-thirds of the median. “Other status” is defined as being unemployed or out of the labor force. Q = consumption quintile (1 = lowest, 5 = highest). 11 14
Page 1 and 2: Public Disclosure Authorized Public
Page 3 and 4: This booklet contains the overview
Page 6 and 7: Acknowledgments This report is the
Page 8 and 9: Abbreviations CCT conditional cash
Page 10 and 11: Executive Summary Transitions are d
Page 12 and 13: not only about the technical aspect
Page 14 and 15: Prioritizing interventions that pro
Page 16 and 17: alances and free up resources for o
Page 18 and 19: Overview There is currently an unpa
Page 20: livelihood, and resilience) and ill
Page 23 and 24: 6 Livelihood, by protecting agains
Page 26 and 27: Key Challenges that Call for Renewe
Page 28 and 29: Figure 4 Prevalence of Wasting Rela
Page 32 and 33: Figure 10 Share of Population Livin
Page 34: and Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, sh
Page 37 and 38: 20 Figure 13 SSN Spending with and
Page 39 and 40: 22 Figure 17 Coverage by Nonsubsidy
Page 41 and 42: 24 Figure 19 Beneficiary Incidence
Page 43 and 44: 26 Figure 21 Poverty and Inequality
Page 45 and 46: Egypt and Iraq, food ration cards r
Page 47 and 48: 30 Figure 23 Self-Reported Poverty
Page 49 and 50: 32 Figure 25 Opinions about Respons
Page 51 and 52: 34 GDP). Raising awareness of the c
Page 53 and 54: 36 Figure 29 Support for Conditiona
Page 55 and 56: upper-middle income, or rich were l
Page 58 and 59: The Way Forward Making Safety Nets
Page 60 and 61: Improve the Impact of SSN Programs
Page 62 and 63: tive, eligibility criteria, and ben
Page 64 and 65: Annex A.1 Description of the Data S
Page 66: Country Survey Year Description Mul
Page 69 and 70: 52 Pro-Poor? From Static to Dynamic

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