VP Bank Verwaltungs- und Privat-Bank AG

Research Update:
Outlook On Liechtenstein-Based VP
Bank Revised To Negative On
Substandard Performance; Affirmed At
'A-/A-2'
Primary Credit Analyst:
Dirk Heise, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-163; dirk_heise@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Contact:
Salla Von_Steinaecker, Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-164; salla_vonsteinaecker@standardandpoors.com
Table Of Contents
Overview
Rating Action
Rationale
Outlook
Ratings Score Snapshot
Related Criteria And Research
Ratings List
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Research Update:
Outlook On Liechtenstein-Based VP Bank Revised
To Negative On Substandard Performance;
Affirmed At 'A-/A-2'
Overview
• Liechtenstein-based VP Bank's operating performance and net new money
generation are suffering from a greater-than-expected impact from the
bank's refocused international onshore markets strategy.
• We have therefore revised our outlook on VP Bank to negative from stable
and have affirmed the long- and short-term issuer credit ratings at
'A-/A-2'.
• We have lowered our assessment of the bank's capital and earnings to
strong from very strong and raised our assessment of VP Bank's risk
position to adequate from moderate.
• We consider VP BANK to be of moderate systemic importance to
Liechtenstein, and therefore incorporate one notch of sovereign support
into our ratings on VP BANK.
Rating Action
On Aug 22, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on
Liechtenstein-based VP Bank Verwaltungs- und Privat-Bank AG (VP BANK) to
negative from stable and affirmed the long- and short-term issuer credit
ratings (ICRs) at 'A-/A-2'.
Rationale
The outlook revision follows the greater-than-expected impact of the bank's
refocused international onshore markets strategy on its operating performance
and net new money generation, both of which we expect to remain below our
forecasts. We see at least a one-in-three likelihood that VP Bank will remain
a poor performer in its peer group, which might lead us to revise our
assessment of its business position downward or lower the long-term ICR by one
notch. Moreover, in our opinion, VP Bank has not yet achieved the strong brand
awareness of its mainly Switzerland-based peers, and is currently suffering
from the exit of two members of its senior management, which might impede the
transformation process.
While our assessment of VP Bank's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) remains at
'bbb+', we have revised two SACP factor scores:
• We have revised our assessment of VP Bank's capital and earnings to
"strong" from "very strong"; and
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Research Update: Outlook On Liechtenstein-Based VP Bank Revised To Negative On Substandard Performance;
Affirmed At 'A-/A-2'
• We have revised our assessment of VP Bank's risk position to "adequate"
from "moderate".
Regarding the capital and earnings assessment, we think it highly unlikely
that VP Bank will manage to keep its risk-adjusted assets (RAC) ratio in the
"very strong" category over the medium term. Although VP BANK enjoys a high
quality of capital, the still high amount of nonservicing intangibles and
unrecognized deficits under its postretirement benefits weigh negatively on
our ratio of total adjusted capital.
Clients' continued risk awareness has lowered revenues and net new money
generation. VP BANK's investments to expand its international onshore
private-banking business in target markets such as Switzerland, Luxembourg,
and Asia continue to significantly weigh on its profitability, in our view.
These two factors limit potential for retaining earnings. Because of this
limited potential and a forecast increase in the bank's customer lending, we
do no see VP Bank's net income over the next 12-24 months lifting its RAC
ratio above our 15% threshold as our criteria define. We calculated a RAC
ratio of 14.2% as of year-end 2011, and project a RAC ratio of about 14%
before concentration and diversification effects within our 18-month horizon.
Regarding the risk position assessment, we positively view VP Bank's increased
risk awareness since 2009, which has led to its achievement of a very high
quality securities portfolio. This has helped the bank to get through the
European bank and sovereign crisis. We also view positively its conservatively
implemented hedging approach of market and foreign exchange risks, which
contributed to the losses experienced in 2008. Despite an 18% increase in
customer loans in 2011, we perceive the credit risk from VP BANK's small and
mainly domestic lending activities as low. In our view, the loan book is
highly collateralized and relatively less sensitive to the economic cycle. In
addition, exposures to Southern-European sovereigns remain nonexistent or
negligible.
The ICR is one notch higher than the SACP, reflecting our view of VP BANK's
"moderate" systemic importance to Liechtenstein and that the government is
"supportive" toward its banking sector.
Outlook
The negative outlook reflects our view that VP Bank's operating performance
and net new money generation will remain below our forecasts.
We might lower our assessment of VP Bank's business position or lower the ICRs
if VP BANK fails in its ongoing transformational process and does not
strengthen its business profile by broadening its international onshore
customer base and franchise, thus achieving positive new asset generation over
the medium term.
We might revise the outlook to stable or raise the ICRs if VP BANK were able
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Research Update: Outlook On Liechtenstein-Based VP Bank Revised To Negative On Substandard Performance;
Affirmed At 'A-/A-2'
to achieve significant net new money generation, leading to higher earnings
retention and a stronger capital and earnings assessment above our 15%
threshold. This might be facilitated by a more diverse and
less-confidence-sensitive business profile resulting from improvements in its
market position.
Ratings Score Snapshot
To From
Issuer Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
SACP bbb+ bbb+
Anchor a- a-
Business Position Weak (-2) Weak (-2)
Capital and Earnings Strong (+1) Very Strong (+2)
Risk Position Adequate (0) Moderate (-1)
Funding Average (0) Average (0)
Liquidity Adequate (0) Adequate (0)
Support 1 1
GRE Support 0 0
Group Support 0 0
Sovereign Support 1 1
Additional Factors 0 0
Related Criteria And Research
• Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And
Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
• Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk
Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011
• Criteria | Financial Institutions | Banks: Bank Capital Methodology And
Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010
Ratings List
CreditWatch/Outlook Action; Ratings Affirmed
To From
VP Bank Verwaltungs- und Privat-Bank AG
Counterparty Credit Rating A-/Negative/A-2 A-/Stable/A-2
Ratings Affirmed
VP Bank Verwaltungs- und Privat-Bank AG
Certificate Of Deposit A-/A-2
Senior Unsecured A-
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Research Update: Outlook On Liechtenstein-Based VP Bank Revised To Negative On Substandard Performance;
Affirmed At 'A-/A-2'
Additional Contact:
Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; FIG_Europe@standardandpoors.com
Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on
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20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm
(46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow 7 (495) 783-4009.
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