Dr. Rodrigo Caballero

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How will extremes change in future? • There is evidence that extremes may become more frequent in a warmer climate • But extremes are by definition rare • To assess changes in once-a-century storms, need to simulate several centuries • Also need high resolution • Very computationally demanding!
The 1000 year run • We are currently conducting a 1000-year highresolution run to assess changes in extreme windstorms over Europe • First of its kind • Working with partners in the insurance industry to assess how these changes may impact property exposure
Page 1 and 2: Pushing the envelope: Extreme weath
Page 3 and 4: The world is getting richer, faster
Page 5 and 6: 9 World Population (billion) The
Page 7 and 8: The Challenge, part I • Target fu
Page 9 and 10: Avoiding dangerous climate change
Page 11 and 12: What is a climate model? Need to so
Page 13 and 14: Models reproduce recent climate cha
Page 15 and 16: The Eocene The Eocene (50 million y
Page 17 and 18: Northern Canada 50 million years ag
Page 19 and 20: The ‘low-gradient paradox’ A ma
Page 21 and 22: What is wrong? No-one really knows,
Page 23: Extreme storms
Page 30 and 31: Extreme computing
Page 32 and 33: The computational challenge • By
Page 34: What role for Ireland? • Seizing

Dr. Rodrigo Caballero

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