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Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

92 Corporate finance – Zone B<br />

Important note<br />

This commentary reflects the examination and assessment arrangements<br />

for this course in the academic year 2010–11. The format and structure<br />

of the examination may change in future years, and any such changes<br />

will be publicised on the virtual learning environment (VLE).<br />

Format of the examination paper<br />

Candidates should answer FOUR of the following EIGHT<br />

questions: ONE from Section A, ONE from Section B and TWO<br />

further questions from either section. All questions carry equal<br />

marks.<br />

A list of formulas, extracts from Present Value and Annuity Discount<br />

tables, are given at the end of the paper.<br />

A calculator may be used when answering questions on this paper<br />

and it must comply in all respects with the specification given with<br />

your Admission Notice. The make and type of machine must be<br />

clearly stated on the front cover of the answer book.<br />

Comments on specific questions<br />

Answer one question from this section and not more than a further<br />

two questions. (You are reminded that four questions in total are to be<br />

attempted with at least one from Section B.)<br />

Section A<br />

Question 1<br />

a. Derive the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.34–35.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

(10 marks)<br />

This question focuses on the derivation of CAPM. Students should refer to<br />

the mathematical derivation in the subject guide.<br />

Suppose an investor holds a portfolio which combines a% of an asset i and<br />

(1-a)% of the market portfolio. The expected return and variance of the<br />

portfolio p are:<br />

E ( Rpt)<br />

= aE ( Rit)<br />

+ ( 1 − a ) E ( Rmt)<br />

(1.1)<br />

and<br />

( ) [ ( ) ( ) ] 2 / 1<br />

2 2<br />

2 2<br />

σ Rpt = a σ i + 1–<br />

a σ m + 2a 1 – a σim<br />

(1.2)<br />

where is the variance of the return on a risky asset i; 2 is the variance<br />

i m<br />

of the return on the market portfolio; and is the covariance of returns<br />

im<br />

between asset i and the market portfolio. The marginal rate of substitution<br />

(MRS) between the expected return and risk of the market portfolio is<br />

Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

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92 Corporate finance<br />

2<br />

defined as the ratio of the partial differentiation of its expected return over<br />

the partial differentiation of its expected risk of the portfolio with respect to<br />

a. In equilibrium, all marketable assets are included in the market portfolio<br />

and there is no excess demand or supply for any individual asset. This<br />

implies that<br />

∂ E ( R ) / ∂a<br />

pt E(<br />

R ) – E ( R )<br />

(1.3)<br />

it<br />

mt<br />

=<br />

2<br />

∂E<br />

( σ ) / ∂a<br />

( σ – σ ) / σ<br />

pt<br />

im m m<br />

a = 0<br />

Also note that the MRS at the market portfolio is the same as the slope<br />

of the capital market line (CML) at the point of tangency to the efficient<br />

frontier. It can be shown that<br />

E ( R ) E ( R ) E ( R ) E(<br />

R )<br />

MRS =<br />

it − mt<br />

it − mt<br />

=<br />

2<br />

( σ − σ ) σ<br />

σ<br />

im<br />

m<br />

Rearranging the equation (1.4), we have<br />

E( R ) = R + β E ( R ) − R<br />

it<br />

ft<br />

i<br />

m<br />

[ ]<br />

mt<br />

ft<br />

m<br />

= Slope of the CML<br />

(1.4)<br />

(1.5)<br />

where = / . Equation (1.5) shows that there is an exact linear<br />

i im m<br />

relationship between an asset’s return and its beta.<br />

Students may approach this question differently from the suggested<br />

guide here. An alternative approach is to discuss how the portfolio<br />

theory, two fund separation theorem and other related theories may<br />

lead to the CAPM.<br />

b. ‘The CAPM is untestable.’ How far do you agree and disagree with this<br />

statement? Critically evaluate this statement. (15 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.37–39; BMA, Chapter 8, pp.223–27.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

The key points are:<br />

i. The validity of CAPM depends on whether the market portfolio is<br />

mean-variance efficient.<br />

ii. But the true market portfolio is not observable.<br />

iii. Proxies for the market portfolio are often taken from broad-based<br />

equity indices which do not contain all the tradable securities or<br />

non-financial assets such as real estates, durable goods and even<br />

human capital.<br />

iv. This renders CAPM untestable.<br />

A good answer should cover the above points with emphasis on<br />

the emboldened words or phrases. As this question specifically asks<br />

students to evaluate the statement critically, high marks would only<br />

be given if such critical analysis is provided in the answer.


Question 2<br />

a. Explain clearly how an efficient takeover may occur. (15 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.140–41.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

It should be noted that this question asks for the second part of Grossman<br />

and Hart (1980). Some students discuss the impossibility of an efficient<br />

takeover instead. Many students regurgitate the materials from the subject<br />

guide.<br />

Some key points worth noting are:<br />

i. The free-rising problem can be solved by the dilution effect.<br />

a. The raider can extract the value from the target if the takeover is<br />

completed.<br />

b. As long as the value that can be extracted by the raider exceeds<br />

the cost of the acquisition, shareholders are willing to tender their<br />

shares for the takeover (as free-riding is no long optional to them)<br />

ii. Existence of large shareholders may facilitate a takeover.<br />

a. Shareholders will tender their shares if p > z (where p is the<br />

premium paid by the raider and z is the value improvement after<br />

the takeover)<br />

b. Large shareholders will tender their shares if z > (1-a)p + c where<br />

a is the proportion of shares held by the large shareholders and c is<br />

the cost of acquisition.<br />

c. To satisfy both conditions a and b, az > c. So large shareholders will<br />

ensure the success of a takeover if the value improvement accrued<br />

to their shareholders exceeds the cost of acquisition.<br />

b. Outline the arguments for the agency cost on equity. Explain how the use of<br />

short term bonds might mitigate the agency conflict between equity-holders<br />

and debt-holders in financially distressed firms with high debt to equity<br />

ratios. (10 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.112–15.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

This question centres on the agency cost of outside equity. It should<br />

be explained clearly including the following key points:<br />

i. Consider the rewards and costs facing a manager/equity-holder.<br />

ii. More equity held by outsiders, less effort spent by the managers/<br />

equity-holder.<br />

iii. Issuing debt to replace the outside equity will then increase the<br />

leverage and the % of outstanding equity held by manager/equityholder.<br />

As his/her share of the residual value of the firm increases,<br />

he/she will choose to supply more effort, leading to increased firm<br />

value.<br />

iv. Conflicts between shareholders and debt-holders:<br />

a. The problem of asset substitution and risk shifting may arise.<br />

b. Using short-term debt gives debt-holders an early opportunity to<br />

review the firm’s managerial effect.<br />

Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

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92 Corporate finance<br />

4<br />

c. Managers may need to supply their effort to maximise the firm’s<br />

value and look after both the equity and debt-holders at the same<br />

time. Arguably reducing the possible conflicts between the two<br />

different types of stakeholders.<br />

Many candidates regurgitated the materials from the subject guide and<br />

some provided answers on the agency cost on debt instead.<br />

Question 3<br />

a. Explain clearly the 3 main conditions for dividends to work effectively as a<br />

signal of a firm’s value. (9 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.132 and 119–120.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

This question tests students’ ability to understand how the Ross (1977)<br />

model may be used to analyse the signalling effect of dividends. We are<br />

not expecting candidates to develop a set of equations such as those<br />

included on pp.119 and 120 of the subject guide. Instead the focus<br />

should be on the necessary conditions which enable dividends to act as an<br />

efficient signal.<br />

The three key conditions are:<br />

i. The market is adhering to the semi-strong form efficiency but not<br />

strong form. A firm’s true value is therefore not observable.<br />

ii. Managers (according to Lintner’s stylised fact) would not change<br />

dividend unless it is sustainable in the future.<br />

iii. Therefore good quality firm will pay high dividend to signal its<br />

strength and commitment.<br />

b. Critically assess the empirical evidence for the weak form market efficiency.<br />

(10 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.64–68.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

Candidates should discuss how the weak form efficiency is tested in<br />

empirical studies and in particular, focus on the implications of the<br />

findings from the random walk tests, return autocorrelation tests, calendar<br />

effects and trading rules.<br />

c. Explain why Net Present Value is a better investment appraisal technique<br />

than Internal Rate of Return. (6 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.18 and 19; BMA, Chapter 5, pp.137–43.<br />

This part was generally quite well answered. The key points that should<br />

be discussed are:<br />

i. IRR does not account for the size and magnitude of the project. It is<br />

not a good tool to rank projects.<br />

ii. Costs of capital may vary over time but the IRR assumes that any spare<br />

cash can be re-invested at the same rate.<br />

iii. IRR is not additive and therefore the total IRR of all projects needs<br />

to be re-computed. NPV has an additive property and therefore the<br />

combined effect can be determined easily.


Question 4<br />

a. Explain Modigliani and Miller’s argument on the irrelevancy of debt and<br />

dividend policies. (10 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.91–93 and 128.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

Candidates should place equal importance to the two parts of this question.<br />

Many candidates simply focus on the irrelevance of capital structure and<br />

ignore dividend policy.<br />

First, we should note that the combined cash return to all stakeholders<br />

is the same regardless of the firm’s capital structure. This can be easily<br />

illustrated in a simple example such as Table 6.1 on p.92 of the subject<br />

guide.<br />

Second, regarding the irrelevancy of dividend policies, candidates should<br />

point out that in the world with no tax, shareholders are indifferent<br />

between capital gain and dividend income. They can replicate any dividend<br />

policy through appropriate purchases and sales of shares.<br />

b. Using the arguments for the signalling and tax effects of debts, to what extent<br />

would you conclude that debt policy is relevant to corporate value?<br />

(15 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.94–97 and 119–120.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

There are two parts in this question. To deal with the tax effect of debt,<br />

candidates should discuss the following key points:<br />

• Interest on debt is tax deductible and therefore creates a tax shield<br />

effect.<br />

• The higher the debt, the more interest is paid and hence the higher the<br />

tax shield benefits.<br />

• The firm’s value increases as a result of the higher level of debt.<br />

• However, more debt will increase the potential cost of financial distress.<br />

The value of the firm may not increase as much as the absolute tax<br />

shield.<br />

The second part requires candidates to discuss the main conditions<br />

for debt to work as an effective signal. You should explain why the<br />

following three conditions need to be met and what implications they<br />

have in terms of debt policy:<br />

• Market – must be adhering to the semi-strong (but not strong form<br />

otherwise the firm’s value can be observed).<br />

• Good firms with optimistic future cash flows can afford to issue more<br />

debt and pay more interest. Therefore those firms with high levels of<br />

debt signal their strength and their value will be improved.<br />

• The penalty of using incorrect signals is more costly than the short<br />

term gain.<br />

Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

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92 Corporate finance<br />

6<br />

Section B<br />

Answer one question from this section and not more than a further<br />

two questions. (You are reminded that four questions in total are to be<br />

attempted with at least one from Section A.)<br />

Question 5<br />

a. Leopard plc is considering purchasing a new machine in its manufacturing<br />

plant. The machine is required on a going concern basis. The company has the<br />

following two options:<br />

Machines Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4<br />

A –100,000 90,000 80,000 50,000<br />

B –150,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000<br />

All figures are quoted in $. The cost of capital for Leopard plc is 10% per<br />

annum. In which machine should Leopard plc invest?<br />

Reading for the question<br />

BMA, Chapter 6, pp.169–73.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

(6 marks)<br />

Machine A<br />

Year CF’s DF PV AEV<br />

0 –100 1 –100<br />

1 90 0.909 81.81<br />

2 80 0.826 66.08<br />

3 50 0.751 37.55<br />

2.486 85.44 34.368<br />

Machine B<br />

Year CF’s DF PV AEV<br />

0 –150 1 –150<br />

1 35 0.909 31.815<br />

2 45 0.826 37.17<br />

3 55 0.751 41.305<br />

4 65 0.683 44.395<br />

3.169 4.685 1.478<br />

Given that Machine A has the higher NPV and AEV (annual equivalent<br />

value), we should invest in it.<br />

b. GQ Ltd has been presented with the following project:<br />

A new machine for $250,000 is required at the beginning of the first year. The<br />

machine will last for 4 years and thereafter can be disposed of for $25,000.<br />

The company’s policy is to depreciate this type of machine over its economic<br />

life on a straight-line basis.<br />

The demand for the product MH depends on the future states of the<br />

economy. In the good state, GQ Ltd expects to sell 15,000 units per year for<br />

the next 4 years. If the economy is bad, sales will fall to 5,000 units per year.<br />

Each state of the economy has an equal probability to materialise. Each unit<br />

of product MH will be priced at $40. Total variable costs are expected to be<br />

$30 per unit in the first year and thereafter rise at 10% per year.<br />

[For the full question, please refer to the Examination paper.]


Reading for the question<br />

BMA Chapter 6, pp.156–69.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

0 1<br />

Year<br />

2 3 4<br />

Machine (250,000) 25,000<br />

Revenue 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000<br />

Costs (300,000) (330,000) (363,000) (399,300)<br />

NCF before tax (250,000) 100,000 70,000 37,000 25,700<br />

Tax (11,250) (6,938) (553) 23,931<br />

NCF after tax (250,000) 88,750 63,063 36,447 49,631<br />

DF 1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683<br />

PV (250,000) 80,674 52,090 27,372 33,898<br />

NPV (55,967)<br />

NCF = Taxable profit 100,000 70,000 37,000 25,700<br />

Capital allowances (62,500) (46,875) (35,156) (105,469)<br />

Taxable profit after CA 37,500 23,125 1,844 (79,769)<br />

Tax 11,250 6,938 553 (23,931)<br />

i. Given that the NPV of the project is negative, it is not advisable to<br />

invest in it.<br />

Would we accept this project if the cost of capital is reduced? To<br />

answer this question, we recomputed the NPV using a lower discount<br />

rate. For illustration purposes, we use 5% as a new reduced cost of<br />

capital. The NPV of the project can be recomputed as follows:<br />

NCF after tax (250,000) 88,750 63,063 36,447 49,631<br />

DF (5%) 1 0.952 0.907 0.864 0.823<br />

PV (250,000) 84,490 57,198 31,490 40,846<br />

NPV (35,976)<br />

IRR = 5% – 35,976/(–35976 + 55967) × 5% = –4%<br />

ii. The cost of capital needs to drop by 14% to wipe out the NPV entirely.<br />

This implies that this project will never break even.<br />

Question 6<br />

a. The last 5 years returns on Fly-away plc and Stay-at-home plc are as follows:<br />

Year Fly-away, % Stay-at-home, %<br />

2010 0 14<br />

2009 –4 –2<br />

2008 8 0<br />

2007 10 –5<br />

2006 6 18<br />

Calculate the return and risk of a portfolio which consists of 50% Fly-away<br />

and 50% Stay-at-home.<br />

Reading for the question<br />

(10 marks)<br />

BMA, Chapter 7, pp.202–05 (especially Table 7.7).<br />

7


92 Corporate finance<br />

8<br />

Approaching the question<br />

I II III IV IV VI VII<br />

Year Fly-away, % Stay-athome,<br />

%<br />

I - mean II - mean III x III IV x IV III x IV<br />

2010 0 14 –4 9 16 81 –36<br />

2009 –4 –2 –8 –7 64 49 56<br />

2008 8 0 4 –5 16 25 –20<br />

2007 10 –5 6 –10 36 100 –60<br />

2006 6 18 2 13 4 169 26<br />

Sum 20 25 136 424 –34<br />

Mean 4 5<br />

Variance 34 106<br />

Covariance –8.5<br />

Stdev 5.83 10.30<br />

Portfolio variance = 0.5 0.5 34 + 0.5 0.5 106 0.5 0.5 –8.5 = 30.75<br />

Portfolio risk = square root of the variance = 5.55<br />

Note that the above figures are adjusted for the small sample error.<br />

b. Suppose the returns on Stock x, y and z are determined by the following twofactor<br />

model:<br />

r<br />

r<br />

r<br />

x<br />

y<br />

z<br />

=<br />

=<br />

=<br />

0.<br />

2<br />

0.<br />

16<br />

0.<br />

5<br />

+ 2 F − F<br />

1<br />

1<br />

+ 1.<br />

2 F<br />

1<br />

+ F + F<br />

2<br />

2<br />

+<br />

=<br />

= 10%<br />

0.<br />

5<br />

F<br />

6%<br />

2<br />

=<br />

8%<br />

i. Determine the portfolio weights you need to place on x, y and z in order<br />

to replicate the portfolio returns on F and F respectively. 1 2 (10 marks)<br />

ii. The return on Stock M is known to follow the following factor model<br />

r = 0.2 + 1.6F + 1.8F m 1 2<br />

It is currently traded with a return of 10%. Explain if any arbitrage<br />

opportunity arises in this case.<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.46–50.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

(5 marks)<br />

Let x, y and z as the weight in X, Y and Z.<br />

For<br />

( 1)<br />

( 2)<br />

( 3)<br />

( 2)<br />

( 2)<br />

F<br />

1<br />

x + y + z = 1<br />

2 x +<br />

− x +<br />

−<br />

−<br />

( 1)<br />

( 3)<br />

1.<br />

2<br />

⇒ y = 10<br />

⇒ z = −7<br />

0.<br />

5<br />

⇒ x = −2<br />

y + z = 1<br />

y + z = 0<br />

⇒ x + 0.<br />

2 y = 0<br />

⇒ 3 x +<br />

0.<br />

7<br />

y = 1


For F2<br />

( 1)<br />

( 2)<br />

( 3)<br />

( 2)<br />

( 2)<br />

x + y + z = 1<br />

2 x +<br />

− x +<br />

−<br />

−<br />

( 1)<br />

( 3)<br />

1.<br />

2<br />

⇒ y = 20<br />

0.<br />

5<br />

⇒ x = −5<br />

⇒ z = −14<br />

y + z = 0<br />

y + z = 1<br />

⇒ x + 0.<br />

2 y = −1<br />

⇒ 3 x + 0.<br />

7y<br />

= −1<br />

The expected returns on x, y and z are given in the question as 10%, 8%<br />

and 6% respectively. Therefore the expected return on:<br />

F1 = –2 10% + 10 8% – 7 6% = 18<br />

F2 = -5 20% + 20 16% – 14 5% = 26<br />

Expected return on M = 0.2 + 1.6 F1 1.8 F2 = 75.8.<br />

The expected return is higher than the observed return. It seems to<br />

suggest that M is overpriced and an arbitrage opportunity exists.<br />

Consequently, we can sell M and buy the replicated portfolio using F1 and<br />

F2.<br />

However, the return figures are grossly inconsistent with the factor model,<br />

it might suggest that the multi-factor model is not a correct pricing<br />

equation. Therefore the expected return cannot be estimated correctly. It<br />

is therefore hard to determine if arbitrage exists.<br />

Question 7<br />

Red Apple plc, a quoted company in Hong Kong, is considering to takeover<br />

Green Papaya Ltd. Both companies are 100% equity financed. The following<br />

information is available for these two companies:<br />

Red Apple Green Papaya<br />

Number of shares 100,000,000 2,000,000<br />

Share price £10 Not available<br />

Dividend per share (latest) $1 $0.8<br />

You discover the following additional information:<br />

i. Green Papaya Ltd. has been paying dividends at a constant growth rate of<br />

5% per annum for the last 5 years to its shareholders.<br />

ii. The Directors of Green Papaya have been using a discount rate of 10% per<br />

annum to appraise its projects.<br />

iii. It is believed that the cost of capital for Green Papaya will reduce to<br />

8% per annum once it is taken over by Red Apple.<br />

[For the full question, please refer to the Examination paper.]<br />

Reading for the question<br />

BMA, Chapter 31, pp.829–33.<br />

Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

9


92 Corporate finance<br />

10<br />

Approaching the question<br />

Part A<br />

Suppose Green Papaya’s dividend grows at 5% p.a. in the foreseeable<br />

future before the takeover.<br />

Share price, S = $0.8(1.05)/0.1 – 0.05 = $16.80<br />

Value, V = $16.80 2,000,000 = $33,600,000<br />

Part B<br />

New share price after the merger, S = 0.8 1.05 /(0.08 – 0.1) = $28.00<br />

New value after the merger, V = $28 2,000,000 = $56,000,000<br />

Part C<br />

Equity issue, raising cash<br />

Cost of acquisition = $8 5m = $40,000,000<br />

Net cost = 40,000,000 – 33,600,000 = $6,400,000<br />

Gain = $56,000,000 – $33,600,000 = $22,400,000<br />

Net gain = $22,400,000 – $6,400,000 = $16,000,000<br />

Share exchange<br />

Value of the combined company = $1,000,000,000 + $56,000,000 =<br />

$1,056,000,000<br />

New share price = $1,056m/104m = $10.15<br />

Cost of acquisition = $10.15 4m = $40,615,385<br />

Net cost = $40,615,385 – $33,600,000 = $7,015,385<br />

Gain =$56,000,000 – $33,600,000 = $22,400,000 (same as in the cash<br />

offer)<br />

Net gain = $22,400,000 – $7,015,385 = $15,384,615<br />

The advantages and disadvantages of cash and share exchange in M&A<br />

can be summarised as follows:<br />

Cash Acquired Acquiring<br />

Advantages Shareholders will receive a Acquiring firm’s shareholders<br />

certain cash flow when they sell will have full control over the<br />

their shares to the acquiring combined operation.<br />

firm. It implies that they will<br />

obtain a certain return on their<br />

investment.<br />

Disadvantages The receipt of cash is deemed<br />

to a disposal of shares which<br />

will attract capital gains tax<br />

and shareholders will lose<br />

ownership.<br />

Share exchange<br />

Advantages The acquired firm’s shareholders<br />

will maintain some form of<br />

ownership in the combined<br />

operation.<br />

Disadvantages The return on investment from<br />

the combined operation might<br />

be uncertain.<br />

There is a liquidity implication.<br />

Acquiring firm needs to raise<br />

sufficient cash flows for the<br />

acquisition.<br />

There is no cash outflow in this<br />

type of acquisition.<br />

Acquired firm’s shareholders<br />

need to share ownership with<br />

the shareholders from the<br />

acquiring firm.


Question 8<br />

a. Orchard plc’s share price, S, can either go up to S or down to S in the next<br />

H L<br />

period. Derive the price of a put option written on S in terms of a position in<br />

the stock and a risk free asset. (7 marks)<br />

b. Orchard plc’s shares are currently traded at $20 each. Its share price will<br />

go up to $22 or down to $17 in three months’ time. The effective interest<br />

rate for the next three months is 3%. What is the price of a put option on<br />

Orchard’s share with an exercise price of $20.5? (5 marks)<br />

c. Explain clearly why the price of a put option does not depend on the<br />

investor’s risk preference and the probabilities of the future states of the<br />

economy. Determine the risk neutral probabilities of the two states of the<br />

economy in (b). (13 marks)<br />

Reading for the question<br />

Subject guide, pp.60–63.<br />

Approaching the question<br />

a. Derive the option price<br />

Form a portfolio with a% in S and b in risk-free asset. This portfolio<br />

mimicks the payoff of a put option:<br />

P = aP + b(1 + r )<br />

H H f<br />

P = aP + b(1 + r )<br />

L L f<br />

Solving the two equations we have:<br />

a = P – P / S – S H L H L<br />

b = S P – S P / (1 + r )(S – S )<br />

L H H L f L H<br />

The value of a put, P = aS + b<br />

b. Given the information in the question, we can determine that:<br />

P = 0 H<br />

P = 3.5 L<br />

S = 22 H<br />

S = 17 L<br />

Substituting into the two equations in (a) we have:<br />

a = (0 – 3.5)/(22 – 17) = –3.5/5 = –0.7<br />

b = (17 0 – 22 3.5) / (1.03 –5) = 14.951<br />

The value of the put, P = –0.6 20 + 14.951 = 0.9515<br />

c. If S = uS (u percentage of S) and S = dS (d percentage of S), then<br />

H L<br />

a = (P – P )/(u – d)S<br />

H L<br />

b = (uP – dP )/(u – d)R<br />

L H<br />

and<br />

P = aS + b<br />

= (P – P )/(u – d)+ (uP – dP )/(u – d)R<br />

H L L H<br />

= [qP + (1 – q)P ]/R where q=(R – d)/(u – d), the risk neutral probability<br />

H L<br />

Using the information in (b), R = 1.03; d = 0.85; u = 1.1<br />

q = 1.03 – 0.85 / 1.1 – 0.85 = 0.72<br />

Information about the probability and risk are already priced in the<br />

underlying asset. Therefore the option prices which derived their values<br />

from the underlying asset will reflect these two pieces of information.<br />

Examiners’ <strong>commentaries</strong> <strong>2011</strong><br />

11


92 Corporate finance<br />

12<br />

To see this, we can express the current stock price as the probability<br />

weighted average of future prices of the two states:<br />

S = qSH – (1 – q)SL / 1 + rf<br />

q = R – d / u – d

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