ij - Fapesp

Sugarcane, fires, and respiratory health in
São Paulo, Brazil: A case study on the
social
implications of agro-energy production
María Uriarte
Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology
Columbia University

1000 55000
800 50000
600 45000
400 40000
200 35000
30000
USD Hectograms
(inf. adj.) per Hectare
Figure 2: Global Trends over Time in Yield, Cultivated Area, and Prices for Ten
Major Crops
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Yield Cultivated Area Prices
750000
690000
640000
590000
540000
Hectares
(thousands)
Rudel et al. In review

Figure 3: The Geographic Distribution of Land Sparing Nations
Rudel et al. In review

VARIABLE COEFFICIENT
Intercept .151 (.025) ***
Annual urban growth rate 2000-05 .125 (.036) **
Total annual growth rate (2000-05) -.065 (.035) #
% of agric. produc exported (2001-03) .111 (.027) ***
R 2 .40
Adjusted R 2 .35***
***p

Raw sugarpaste ($/ton).
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Yom Kippur war
Oil Embargo Iran-Iraq war
Gulf war
Sugarcane
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Oil
9/11
$50
$45
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
$/barrel

Social and environmental effects of
sugarcane production in São Paulo
1. Air pollution and respiratory morbidity (Arbex et al.
2000, Lara et al. 2005, Martinelli et al. 2002,
Cançado et al. 2006, Almeida 2006).
2. Degradation of aquatic ecosystems (Martinelli et
al. 2002).
3. Exploitation of cane-cutters (Rodrigues 2006,
Alves 2006).
4. Increased vulnerability to weather and market
fluctuations?

Sugarcane, fires & respiratory health
1. What are the spatial links between
sugarcane cultivation, occurrence of
fires, and respiratory health at the state
scale?
2. How can we ameliorate the effects of
recent expansion in cane cultivation on
respiratory health?

Sugarcane production by state (2005)
Pernambuco
Alagoas
Minas
Others
Parana
Sao Paulo

1990 2006
Area in sugarcane
São Paulo

Planted area (ha)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Planted Area (ha)
Cotton
Rice
Beans
Wheat
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
2003
2004
2005
2006
0
1990
1991
Sugarcane
Corn
Soy
Total
1992
1993
Expansion of sugarcane in
the state of Sao Paulo
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Percent (sugarcane)
Value of sugarcane production in SP
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
25
20
15
10
5
0
Percent (others)
Sugarcane
Corn
Soy

Standardized monthly salaries (R$2001)
800
600
400
200
2002
MONTHLY
WORKER
ADMINISTRATOR
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2002
2003
2004
TRACTOR
DRIVER
CREW LEADER
2005
2006
2007
2002
MIGRANT
WORKER
JOURNEYMAN
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
800
600
400
200

R 2 = 0.42
Data: INPE (NOAA-12)

Legal objectives to eliminate pre-harvest
burning in Sao Paulo

April December

6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Fires/month (1999-2005)
Sugarcane burning season
JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Data: INPE, NOAA-12

Where there’s fire….
Smoke PM 2.5
TSP SO2 SO2 Data: CETESB, Brasil

14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Respiratory disease counts
Sugarcane burning season
JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
Data: DATASUS, Brasilia

Mean Temperature (deg C)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
J F M A M J J A S O N D
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
Total precipitation (mm)
MaxTemp
MinTemp
Precip
Data: CIIAGRO, SP, Brasil

w ij
p
Statistical Model: Respiratory
~
w s
logit
Binomial (s
ij
s
M
12
i 1 i
ij
p
1
)
Binomial
X
ij
disease
w
ij
|
s
ij
X
ij
Fires/
ha
PPT
MaxTemp
% Rural
Sugarcanein
1995
Muni ( Random)

(A)CHILDREN (|z|)
Intercept -8.97 0.05 -185.6 < 2e-16
Fires/km 2 0.19 0.03 7.65 2.0e-14
Max. Temp -0.02 0.03 -0.69 0.49
Precipitation (PPT) -0.07 0.02 -3.03 0.0025
Per. Rural -0.72 0.11 -5.80 6.6e-09
PPT x Max Temp -0.56 0.05 -10.49 < 2e-16
Max. Temp x PPT x Fires/km 2 -0.83 0.14 -5.86 4.7e-09
Sugarcane in 1995 (km 2 ) 0.23 0.08 2.76 0.0057
(B) ELDERLY (>60 YEARS OF AGE
Parameter Estimate Std. Err. z value Pr(>|z|)
Intercept -10.15 0.07 -131.6 < 2e-16
Fires/km 2 0.29 0.05 5.4 6.2e-08
Max. Temp -0.19 0.06 -3.1 0.0017
Precipitation -0.31 0.05 -6.6 4.7e-11
Per. Rural -0.88 0.18 -5.0 5.4e-07
PPT x Max Temp -1.09 0.11 -9.5 < 2e-16
Max. Temp x PPT x Fires/km 2 -0.99 0.32 -3.1 0.0020

ELDERLY PREDICTED /YR
CASES/1,000 INDIVIDUALS
ELDERLY OBSERVED
CHILDREN PREDICTED CHILDREN OBSERVED

Cases per 1,000 individuals/yr
associated with sugarcane burning
ELDERLY
CURRENT FIRE
CHILDREN
CURRENT FIRE
CHILDREN
CHRONIC FIRE

Current:
12%
Current & chronic:
38%
(State 5.4%)
Current:
16%
(State 1.8%)

w ij
p
Statistical Model: Lung cancer
deaths and hospital admissions
~
w s
logit
Binomial (s
ij
s
M
12
i 1 i
ij
p
1
)
Binomial
X
ij
w
ij
|
s
X
ij
ij
% sugarcanein1993
% Urban
Muni ( Random)

Respiratory cancer deaths and admissions
(1996-2007)
NUMBER OF DEATHS > 40 YRS OLD/10,000 IND./YR
Parameter Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
Intercept -9.9645 0.0787 -126.7 < 2e-16 ***
% sugar 1993 0.2419 0.0641 3.8 0.00016 ***
% urban 2000 0.3069 0.0817 3.8 0.00017 ***
NUMBER OF ADMISSIONS > 40 YRS OLD/10,000 IND./YR
Parameter Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)
Intercept -8.1909 0.0991 -82.7 < 2e-16 ***
% sugar 1993 0.1880 0.0489 3.8 0.00012 ***
% urban 2000 0.3338 0.0552 6.0 1.5e-09 ***

% land surface in sugarcane (1993)
Number of deaths per 10,0000/yr
from respiratory cancer
(1997-2007)
% population urban (2000)

Number of deaths > 40 yrs old/yr from
respiratory cancer
per 10,0000 indiv
associated with sugarcane burning
(1997-2007)
35 deaths/yr
153 admissions/yr
Number of deaths > 40 yrs old/yr from
respiratory cancer
per 10,0000 indiv
associated with urban centers
(1997-2007)
448 deaths/yr
2389 admissions/yr

Socio-environmental effects of sugarcane
production
1. What are the spatial links between
sugarcane cultivation, occurrence of
fires, and respiratory health?
2. How can we ameliorate the effects of
sugarcane cultivation on respiratory
health?
• Identify most vulnerable areas
• Identity non-suitable areas

INCREASE IN SUGAR 2003-2007 (KM 2 ) PREDICTED % INCREASE IN FIRES/KM 2
PRED. % INCREASE IN ELDERLY ATTRIB. TO FIRE
PRED. % INCREASE YOUNG CASES ATTRIB. FIRE

Effect of increase in sugarcane from 2003-2007
550 more fires
140-180 more
elderly cases
200-250 more
children cases

Identify areas non-suitable for cultivation
• Identify areas that are not mechanizable (fields
are >12% slope or < 150 ha).
• Exclude areas within 50-500 meter buffer of
rivers & streams.

Hectares of sugarcane to abandon
0 - 700
700.1 - 1,800
1,800.1 - 3,500
3,500.1 - 7,000
7,000.1 - 16,500
0 37.5 75 150 225
Kilometers
300

Summary
• Link between sugarcane, fire, and
respiratory health of children & elderly.
• Identified municipalities that have the
highest incidence of cases attributable to
fire.
• Identified areas that are not suitable for
sugarcane cultivation.
• Overlap & tradeoffs

Other considerations
• Effects on biodiversity.
• Mechanization may reduce the number of
fires but at the expense of jobs.
• Effects of sugarcane processing on water
resources.
• Effects of increased demand for sugar.