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A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS<br />

OF THE IMPACT OF CAP REFORM<br />

Alternative Methods <strong>of</strong> Constructing<br />

Regional Input-Output Tables<br />

Andrea Bonfiglio<br />

<strong>associazione</strong>AlessandroBartola<br />

studi e ricerche di economia e di politica agraria<br />

PhD Studies 1


<strong>associazione</strong>AlessandroBartola<br />

A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF<br />

CAP REFORM. ALTERNATIVE METHODS OF<br />

CONSTRUCTING REGIONAL I-O TABLES<br />

Andrea Bonfiglio<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Economics<br />

Polytechnic University <strong>of</strong> Marche<br />

Ancona, Italy<br />

PhD Studies 1


Associazione “Alessandro Bartola”<br />

Studi e ricerche di economia e di politica agraria<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Economics<br />

Polytechnic University <strong>of</strong> Marche<br />

Piazzale Martelli, 8<br />

60121 Ancona, Italy<br />

PhD Studies Series: Volume 1, 2005


I give my thanks to Francesco Chelli, Pr<strong>of</strong>essor <strong>of</strong> Statistics at <strong>the</strong> Polytechnic<br />

University <strong>of</strong> Marche, for a precious contribution towards developing <strong>the</strong> statistical<br />

<strong>analysis</strong>. I also thank Roberto Esposti, Researcher at <strong>the</strong> Polytechnic University<br />

<strong>of</strong> Marche, for giving me advice when carrying out <strong>the</strong> econometrical <strong>analysis</strong>.<br />

Finally, I must thank my family, in particular my fa<strong>the</strong>r Roberto, my mo<strong>the</strong>r<br />

Liliana and my aunt Assunta, for all sacrifices <strong>the</strong>y made to give me a good education.


Contents<br />

1 INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................9<br />

2 SURVEY VS. NON-SURVEY METHODS ....................................................................... 15<br />

2.1 SURVEY METHODS ...................................................................................................... 15<br />

2.1.1 Full survey ....................................................................................................... 15<br />

2.1.2 Rows-only method............................................................................................ 16<br />

2.1.3 Columns-only method ...................................................................................... 16<br />

2.2 NON-SURVEY METHODS.............................................................................................. 17<br />

2.3 ONE-REGION NON-SURVEY METHODS ......................................................................... 19<br />

2.3.1 Regionalizing technical coefficients................................................................. 19<br />

2.3.1.1 Use <strong>of</strong> unadjusted national coefficients ...................................................................20<br />

2.3.1.2 Price modifications ..................................................................................................20<br />

2.3.1.3 Aggregation techniques ...........................................................................................21<br />

2.3.1.4 Fabrication effects....................................................................................................22<br />

2.3.2 Estimating regional input coefficients ............................................................. 23<br />

2.3.2.1 Location quotient approach......................................................................................24<br />

2.3.2.2 Regional supply percentages....................................................................................31<br />

2.3.2.3 Supply-demand pool approach.................................................................................32<br />

2.3.2.4 Regional purchase coefficients ................................................................................33<br />

2.3.3 Short-cut methods ............................................................................................ 34<br />

2.3.4 Ready-made models ......................................................................................... 35<br />

2.4 INTERREGIONAL AND MULTIREGIONAL NON-SURVEY METHODS ................................. 38<br />

3 HYBRID METHODS .......................................................................................................... 41<br />

3.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 41<br />

3.2 TOP-DOWN APPROACH ................................................................................................ 43<br />

3.2.1 Institutional approach...................................................................................... 46<br />

3.2.2 One-region institutional approach................................................................... 46<br />

3.2.2.1 Constrained matrix techniques.................................................................................47<br />

3.2.2.2 Import-survey-based method ...................................................................................49<br />

3.2.2.3 Export-survey-based method ...................................................................................49<br />

3.2.2.4 The family <strong>of</strong> GRIT-based methods.........................................................................49<br />

3.2.2.4.1 The original version .............................................................................................50<br />

3.2.2.4.2 GRIT II ................................................................................................................55<br />

3.2.2.4.3 The Aberdeen version ..........................................................................................56<br />

3.2.2.4.4 The REAPBALK version.....................................................................................57<br />

3.2.2.5 GRITSSIC................................................................................................................59<br />

3.2.2.6 TDA.........................................................................................................................60<br />

v


vi<br />

3.2.2.7 Lahr’s strategy .........................................................................................................61<br />

3.2.2.8 Distributive commodity balance method .................................................................64<br />

3.2.3 Multiregional institutional approach............................................................... 65<br />

3.2.3.1 GRIT III...................................................................................................................66<br />

3.2.3.2 DEBRIOT................................................................................................................67<br />

3.2.4 Make and Use approach .................................................................................. 72<br />

3.2.4.1 Jackson’s regionalization method ............................................................................74<br />

3.2.4.2 Lahr’s contribution ..................................................................................................77<br />

3.2.4.3 The Austrian experience ..........................................................................................79<br />

3.3 BOTTOM-UP APPROACH .............................................................................................. 80<br />

3.4 HORIZONTAL APPROACH............................................................................................. 80<br />

4 PERFORMANCES OF REGIONALIZATION METHODS .......................................... 83<br />

4.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 83<br />

4.2 MEASURES FOR COMPARING INPUT-OUTPUT MATRICES .............................................. 84<br />

4.2.1 Traditional statistics ........................................................................................ 85<br />

4.2.2 General distance statistics ............................................................................... 88<br />

4.2.3 Information-based statistics............................................................................. 93<br />

4.3 OVERVIEW OF EMPIRICAL STUDIES COMPARING INDIRECT METHODS.......................... 93<br />

4.4 TEACHING FROM EMPIRICAL STUDIES ......................................................................... 98<br />

5 AN ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF CAP REFORM USING DIFFERENT<br />

REGIONALIZATION METHODS .................................................................................... 101<br />

5.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 101<br />

5.2 THE SITUATION OF THE CEREAL SECTOR IN THE MARCHE REGION ............................ 101<br />

5.3 THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY (CAP) AND THE CEREAL MARKET: A BRIEF<br />

OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................................... 106<br />

5.3.1 From CAP’s institution to <strong>the</strong> Mac Sharry Reform ....................................... 106<br />

5.3.2 Agenda 2000 .................................................................................................. 106<br />

5.3.3 The Mid-term Review <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000........................................................... 108<br />

5.4 METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS POLICY IMPACT.............................................................. 110<br />

5.4.1 Farmers’ responsiveness to price variations ................................................. 111<br />

5.4.1.1 Theoretical economic model..................................................................................111<br />

5.4.1.2 Functional form......................................................................................................112<br />

5.4.1.3 Elasticities..............................................................................................................114<br />

5.4.1.4 Estimation..............................................................................................................115<br />

5.4.1.5 Data........................................................................................................................116<br />

5.4.1.6 Results ...................................................................................................................116<br />

5.4.2 A closed mixed-variable I-O model ............................................................... 119<br />

5.4.3 Construction <strong>of</strong> regional I-O tables by different methods.............................. 124<br />

5.4.3.1 Methods used and common data............................................................................124<br />

5.4.3.2 Hybrid methods......................................................................................................126<br />

5.4.3.3 Non-survey methods ..............................................................................................132<br />

5.5 IMPACT SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS USING ALTERNATIVE REGIONALIZATION METHODS .133<br />

5.5.1 Direct policy <strong>impact</strong> on farmers’ output........................................................ 133<br />

5.5.2 Assessing overall <strong>impact</strong> generated by European Policy .............................. 135<br />

5.5.3 Assessing overall sectoral <strong>impact</strong> produced by European Policy ................. 137<br />

5.5.4 Analysing relationships among regionalization methods .............................. 138<br />

6 CONCLUDING REMARKS............................................................................................. 147<br />

REFERENCES......................................................................................................................153


APPENDIX A – REGIONAL I-O TABLES CONSTRUCTED BY 16 DIFFERENT<br />

REGIONALIZATION METHODS .................................................................................... 171<br />

APPENDIX B – TYPE II OUTPUT-TO-OUTPUT MULTIPLIERS ACCORDING TO<br />

THE KIND OF REGIONALIZATION METHOD ........................................................... 205<br />

vii


1 Introduction<br />

Construction <strong>of</strong> input-output tables still represents an important objective for<br />

numerous types <strong>of</strong> research. The increasing need for dealing with economic problems<br />

at sub-national scale (whe<strong>the</strong>r urban or regional) is <strong>the</strong> fundamental reason<br />

for leading economists, geographers, urbanists, and in general scholars <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

science or analysts involved in regional planning, to invent, to adapt or to develop<br />

tools and techniques <strong>of</strong> “regional” <strong>analysis</strong>. Among <strong>the</strong>se techniques, success <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> input-output approach essentially depends on <strong>the</strong> possibility, which this approach<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers, to measure <strong>impact</strong> in <strong>the</strong> regional economy from local or national<br />

policy for which a differentiated <strong>impact</strong> in regions can be foreseen. But <strong>the</strong> possibility<br />

<strong>of</strong> evaluating <strong>impact</strong>s at sub-national level is not <strong>the</strong> only advantage related<br />

to <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> regional I-O models. O<strong>the</strong>r advantages are (Gerking et al.,<br />

2001): (a) <strong>the</strong> entire modelling process, including data development, may improve<br />

<strong>the</strong> knowledge <strong>of</strong> a regional economy as well as <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>oretical and practical sides<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional modelling that o<strong>the</strong>rwise would not be apparent; (b) fur<strong>the</strong>r model applications<br />

and extensions may come out. For instance, a natural extension <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

input-output models is <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> social accounting matrices,<br />

which are <strong>the</strong> basis for computable general equilibrium modelling.<br />

However, <strong>the</strong>se advantages clash with a series <strong>of</strong> restrictive hypo<strong>the</strong>ses on<br />

which regional I-O models are based: rigid production and consumption assumptions<br />

on <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong> a regional model; linearity, fixed prices and zerosubstitution<br />

elasticities in consumption and production; value-added inputs, such<br />

as land, labour and <strong>cap</strong>ital are treated as completely mobile between regions<br />

(Gerking et al., 2001). Moreover, <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> an input-output transactions<br />

table implies <strong>the</strong> knowledge <strong>of</strong> all flows <strong>of</strong> goods and services among intermediate<br />

and final sectors expressed in a disaggregated form and related to a given time<br />

period (Hewings, 1985). That means <strong>the</strong> need for collecting a considerable volume<br />

<strong>of</strong> information. In this respect, while <strong>the</strong> preparation <strong>of</strong> national tables is facilitated<br />

by <strong>the</strong> existence <strong>of</strong> detailed national accounts and commodity data, at a<br />

regional level, analysts, facing <strong>the</strong> issue <strong>of</strong> preparing regional tables, are less advantaged<br />

both with reference to data availability and access to research resources.


Introduction<br />

In fact, data collection by <strong>of</strong>ficial collection institutions is primarily projected for<br />

aims o<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> regional tables and in most cases provides only<br />

some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> basic control totals. For this reason, different approaches for <strong>the</strong><br />

preparation <strong>of</strong> regional input-output tables have been developed in an attempt to<br />

contrive methods <strong>cap</strong>able <strong>of</strong> providing satisfactory results. These approaches can<br />

be divided into three main categories: “survey”, “non-survey” and “hybrid” approaches.<br />

“Historically, <strong>the</strong> relative emphasis given to survey and non-survey techniques<br />

by regional analysts has tended to vary. In <strong>the</strong> early 1950s, when attention was<br />

first turned to applying <strong>the</strong> Leontief input-output system to sub-national areas,<br />

non-survey techniques were applied. Throughout <strong>the</strong> sixties, analysts concentrated<br />

on constructing survey-based regional input-output tables. However, in <strong>the</strong> late<br />

sixties and early seventies, attention has focused on <strong>the</strong> non-survey techniques as<br />

<strong>the</strong> demand has grown for a wider application <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> input-output approach in regional<br />

and urban planning” (Jensen et al., 1979, pp. 28-29). High costs in terms <strong>of</strong><br />

time and resources associated to survey methods and doubts inherent to <strong>the</strong> accuracy<br />

<strong>of</strong> survey-based tables due to possible undervalued sampling errors were<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r reasons why non-survey methods imposed <strong>the</strong>mselves.<br />

The seventies were dominated by non-survey methods. The <strong>the</strong>oretical apparatus<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> first methods was controversial and <strong>the</strong>ir degree <strong>of</strong> reliability in representing<br />

<strong>the</strong> regional economy was not clear. Therefore, efforts to improve <strong>the</strong><br />

reputation <strong>of</strong> non-survey methods were made both <strong>the</strong>oretically and empirically.<br />

Modifications and new methods were introduced to make methods more acceptable<br />

from a <strong>the</strong>oretical standpoint. Moreover, empirical studies were accomplished<br />

to verify how far results from non-survey methods were from surveybased<br />

results. In this regard, Morrison and Smith (1974) contributed substantially<br />

to an understanding <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> non-survey approach.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> late seventies, <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> calculating multipliers without <strong>the</strong> need<br />

for constructing regional tables was suggested, by proposing short-cut techniques<br />

(Davis, 1978; Burford and Katz, 1977). They would have made non-survey methods<br />

and all techniques aimed at reducing national coefficients unnecessary. However,<br />

this possibility raised a heated debate and, in <strong>the</strong> middle <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1980s, was<br />

definitively abandoned.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> meantime, some researchers suggested a hybrid approach as a compromise<br />

between non-survey and survey approaches, in order to gain <strong>the</strong> advantages<br />

<strong>of</strong> both and to avoid <strong>the</strong> main disadvantages. Richardson (1972) referred to <strong>the</strong><br />

possibility <strong>of</strong> using non-survey methods to estimate regional transactions and to<br />

replace some entries with survey-based estimates. However, <strong>the</strong> real change happened<br />

with <strong>the</strong> introduction <strong>of</strong> GRIT (Generating Regional I-O Tables) from Jensen<br />

and his Australian colleagues (Jensen et al., 1979). This method, which can be<br />

defined as <strong>the</strong> first real hybrid method, extended <strong>the</strong> idea <strong>of</strong> replacing some en-<br />

10


Introduction<br />

tries with exogenous information, inserting “superior data” systematically into <strong>the</strong><br />

regional table in order to improve its overall accuracy. The o<strong>the</strong>r innovative characteristic<br />

was to split <strong>the</strong> whole regionalization procedure into separated, removable<br />

and substitutable modules giving <strong>the</strong> procedure a high degree <strong>of</strong> flexibility<br />

and adaptability. Moreover, whilst non-survey methods basically focused on intersectoral<br />

transactions, GRIT shifted attention to <strong>the</strong> entire table. The general<br />

principle was not to create as an accurate cell-by-cell table as possible but to derive<br />

a faithful representation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> overall regional economy, concentrating research<br />

efforts on <strong>the</strong> larger coefficients. The validity <strong>of</strong> this principle was confirmed<br />

by empirical studies showing that multipliers were mostly affected by larger<br />

coefficients (Jensen and West, 1980). GRIT was largely successful in <strong>the</strong> Australian<br />

context. In <strong>the</strong> 1980s, fur<strong>the</strong>r versions <strong>of</strong> GRIT aimed at improving its<br />

characteristics <strong>of</strong> reliability and <strong>the</strong>oretical validity were introduced (West, 1980;<br />

Phibbs and Holsman, 1982; West et al., 1984; Johns and Leat, 1987) and <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>oretical<br />

system behind hybrid models was formulated (Greenstreet, 1989; West,<br />

1990). Moreover, fur<strong>the</strong>r attempts to improve non-survey methods were made<br />

(West, 1980; Stevens et al., 1983; Sawyer and Miller, 1983).<br />

Starting from <strong>the</strong> middle <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1980s, thanks to <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> computers,<br />

ready-made models were developed. They are pre-packaged models, fundamentally<br />

based on non-survey methods. Moreover, <strong>the</strong>y are cheap and do not require<br />

particular technical competencies. These advantages widely favoured <strong>the</strong>ir diffusion<br />

especially in <strong>the</strong> US context.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> 1990s, two main directions were followed by most analysts: hybrid<br />

methods and ready-made models. However, interest in pure non-survey methods<br />

did not disappear completely and attempts aimed at improving non-survey techniques<br />

were made (Flegg et al., 1995; Oude Wansink and Maks, 1998). At <strong>the</strong> end<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1990s, a new hybrid approach was suggested: <strong>the</strong> “make and use” approach<br />

(Jackson, 1998). Until that time, attention was focused on <strong>the</strong> institutional approach<br />

based on national industry-based accounts to derive regional tables. On <strong>the</strong><br />

contrary, <strong>the</strong> “make and use” approach shifts <strong>the</strong> attention to <strong>the</strong> industry-bycommodity<br />

framework so that three kinds <strong>of</strong> regional tables are derived (make table,<br />

use table and final use table) instead <strong>of</strong> only one symmetric table. Currently,<br />

ready-made models and hybrid methods represent <strong>the</strong> most applied methods. As<br />

for hybrid methods, <strong>the</strong> institutional approach is <strong>the</strong> most widespread: most tables<br />

are produced using this approach and new related methods have been continuing<br />

to be introduced (Johnson, 2001; Lahr, 2001a; Mattas et al., 2003). However, <strong>the</strong><br />

increasing number <strong>of</strong> studies oriented to <strong>the</strong> “make and use” approach (Madsen<br />

and Jensem-Butler, 1999; Lahr, 2001b; Fritz et al., 2002) and <strong>the</strong> more and more<br />

frequent utilization <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> make-use format at national level induce us to think that<br />

future research could move towards <strong>the</strong> industry-by-commodity framework.<br />

11


Introduction<br />

The main objective <strong>of</strong> this dissertation is to evaluate <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> using<br />

alternative approaches for deriving regional I-O tables. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>the</strong> aim is<br />

to verify how different or similar results in terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> are when <strong>the</strong> I-O<br />

model, used to estimate <strong>impact</strong>, is constructed on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> different regionalization<br />

methods. The dissertation is articulated in <strong>the</strong> following way.<br />

Chapter 2 is aimed at illustrating survey and non-survey methods <strong>of</strong> regionalization.<br />

More attention is paid to describing non-survey methods and <strong>the</strong> latest<br />

techniques are presented. Non-survey methods are classified in methods focusing<br />

on one region (one-region non-survey approach) and methods oriented to <strong>the</strong> construction<br />

<strong>of</strong> tables for more than one region (<strong>the</strong> multiregional non-survey approach).<br />

The former category comprises methods estimating regional technical<br />

coefficients, methods estimating regional input coefficients, short-cut methods<br />

and ready-made models.<br />

Chapter 3 is dedicated to <strong>the</strong> description <strong>of</strong> hybrid methods. Three approaches<br />

are identified and illustrated: top-down, horizontal and bottom-up approaches.<br />

Within <strong>the</strong> former, two sub-categories are presented: institutional and make and<br />

use methods. Each category includes both methods deriving tables for one region<br />

and methods deriving tables for more than one region.<br />

Chapter 4 is finalized to illustrate empirical studies that have been carried out<br />

to evaluate performances <strong>of</strong> indirect methods <strong>of</strong> construction comparing <strong>the</strong>se latter<br />

ones with survey-based methods. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong> main statistical measures<br />

that have been used towards this aim are described. These are classified as traditional<br />

statistics, general distance statistics and, finally, information-based statistics.<br />

Chapter 5 represents <strong>the</strong> core <strong>of</strong> this work. It attempts to evaluate how <strong>the</strong> use<br />

<strong>of</strong> different approaches for deriving regional I-O tables affects results in terms <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>impact</strong>. Impacts to be evaluated are effects in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment<br />

on <strong>the</strong> overall economy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Marche region, which come from <strong>the</strong><br />

Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) during <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006. In this regard,<br />

policy <strong>analysis</strong> is limited to <strong>the</strong> effects from intervention-price reduction on <strong>the</strong><br />

cereal market. After pointing out <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal market in <strong>the</strong><br />

Marche region, policy <strong>reform</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000 and <strong>the</strong> mid-term review are<br />

examined. Impact generated by price reduction is estimated by two different kinds<br />

<strong>of</strong> methods that are applied sequentially: an econometric model and an Input-<br />

Output model. The former is a multi-input and multi-output model <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it<br />

maximization aimed at estimating responsiveness <strong>of</strong> farmers to price changes to<br />

evaluate variation <strong>of</strong> output produced by a reduction <strong>of</strong> intervention price. The latter<br />

is a modification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> traditional I-O model aimed at estimating overall <strong>impact</strong><br />

(indirect, direct and induced effects) induced by a variation <strong>of</strong> output. This is<br />

referred to as a closed mixed-variable I-O model. Different from <strong>the</strong> Leontief<br />

model, <strong>the</strong> model developed here is able to measure <strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> from output<br />

12


Introduction<br />

changes, ra<strong>the</strong>r than final demand variations, taking into account also effects related<br />

to a variation <strong>of</strong> household expenditure (induced effects). The closed mixed<br />

I-O model is applied using 16 different regional I-O tables which are obtained<br />

from 16 different regionalization methods: eight non-survey methods based on location<br />

quotients and <strong>the</strong> supply-demand pool (SLQ, PLQ, WLQ, CILQ, RLQ,<br />

SCILQ, FLQ, SDP) and eight hybrid methods based on GRIT methodology<br />

(original GRIT, GRIT II, Aberdeen version <strong>of</strong> GRIT, REAPBALK version <strong>of</strong><br />

GRIT, GRIT incorporating SDP, GRIT incorporating SCILQ, GRIT incorporating<br />

RLQ and GRIT incorporating PLQ). In order to analyse <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> with<br />

respect to different approaches for regionalising tables, methods are compared in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> both overall <strong>impact</strong> and <strong>impact</strong> by sector in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and<br />

employment. For this objective, besides classical analyses (range, variability and<br />

ranking), two well-known statistical procedures are applied: factor <strong>analysis</strong> and<br />

<strong>the</strong> multidimensional scaling procedure 1 . Finally, results <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se analyses are illustrated<br />

and commented on.<br />

In chapter 6, some concluding notes, summarising results from <strong>the</strong> comparison<br />

<strong>of</strong> alternative regionalization methods, are provided.<br />

1 Both procedures were applied using <strong>the</strong> S<strong>of</strong>tware Package SPSS 11.5. Factor <strong>analysis</strong> was carried out using<br />

FACTOR procedure, while multidimensional scaling was carried out using PROXSCAL procedure.<br />

13


2 Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

2.1 Survey methods<br />

The 1960s can be considered <strong>the</strong> “golden age” <strong>of</strong> survey-based models<br />

(Richardson, 1985). Regional models were built for Washington State (Bourque et<br />

al., 1967), West Virginia (Miernyk et al., 1970), Philadelphia (Isard et al., 1966-<br />

68) and Kansas (Emerson, 1971). More recently, o<strong>the</strong>r examples <strong>of</strong> survey-based<br />

approaches are provided by Pullen and Proops (1983), McGregor and McNicoll<br />

(1992), Chase et al. (1993), Garhart et al. (1997). As for <strong>the</strong> Italian situation, survey-based<br />

tables were constructed, for example, for <strong>the</strong> Marche region (Santeusanio,<br />

1978) and <strong>the</strong> Toscana region (Casini Benvenuti and Grassi, 1986).<br />

The survey-based approach attempts to identify <strong>the</strong> elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> transactions<br />

table from <strong>the</strong> collection <strong>of</strong> primary data by surveys <strong>of</strong> industries and final consumers<br />

which document both sales and purchases. With reference to <strong>the</strong> kind <strong>of</strong><br />

information requested, three alternative approaches can be identified: full-survey,<br />

“rows-only” method, “columns-only” method.<br />

2.1.1 Full survey<br />

In <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> full survey methods, each sampled firm should be asked to give<br />

information about (Hewings, 1985):<br />

• its sales to regional industries and to final users (households, government<br />

and for investment purchases) inside <strong>the</strong> region and outside <strong>the</strong> region<br />

(exports);<br />

• its purchases from regional industries, from industries outside <strong>the</strong> region<br />

(imports) and <strong>the</strong>ir final payments to primary resource owners in <strong>the</strong> form<br />

<strong>of</strong> wages and salaries, pr<strong>of</strong>its, depreciation allowances, taxes, etc..


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

These purchases and final payments outline <strong>the</strong> production technology <strong>of</strong> each<br />

industry in a usable format, already separated into a regional flows matrix and imports<br />

matrix.<br />

The potential advantage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> full survey-method is to allow constructing tables<br />

with a high level <strong>of</strong> accuracy. However, this approach has three main drawbacks:<br />

firstly, it is highly expensive and time-consuming; secondly, <strong>the</strong>re is <strong>the</strong><br />

risk <strong>of</strong> producing unsatisfactory results due to possible sources <strong>of</strong> non-sampling<br />

errors such as bias in estimates owing to non-response and in case <strong>the</strong> conventions<br />

<strong>of</strong> sampling <strong>the</strong>ory in selecting samples and preparing schedules are not correctly<br />

respected (Jensen et al., 1979; Bulmer-Thomas, 1982). Thirdly, <strong>the</strong>re could be a<br />

serious problem <strong>of</strong> balancing 2 in that, when only few firms are sampled, row totals<br />

and column totals will tend to vary widely (Schaffer, 1999).<br />

2.1.2 Rows-only method<br />

An alternative to <strong>the</strong> full-survey approach is <strong>the</strong> “rows-only” method (Hansen<br />

and Tiebout, 1963). By this method, only information about sales is requested.<br />

The reason for this is that, being inputs very varied and complex and considering<br />

that firms are more concerned with <strong>the</strong> destination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir products, information<br />

about origins <strong>of</strong> inputs is more difficult to obtain. This asymmetry becomes more<br />

apparent when <strong>the</strong> final demand sector, especially consumption, is considered; it<br />

is easier to ask firms what <strong>the</strong>y sell to consumers than to trace back <strong>the</strong> industrial<br />

source <strong>of</strong> consumer purchases. This method produces only one entry per cell in<br />

<strong>the</strong> transactions tables avoiding a complex data reconciliation that is necessary in<br />

<strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> full-survey approach.<br />

2.1.3 Columns-only method<br />

Ano<strong>the</strong>r alternative is <strong>the</strong> “columns-only” method (Harmston and Lund, 1967).<br />

Different from <strong>the</strong> rows-only method, this technique only requires information<br />

about purchases, adducing that firms have a detailed knowledge <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> pattern <strong>of</strong><br />

expenditure for control and tax purposes. This approach seems to be suited for use<br />

in small regions characterized by a relatively large number <strong>of</strong> locally-owned firms<br />

(Shaffer, 1999).<br />

2 As for problems <strong>of</strong> reconciliation, refer for instance to Bourque et al. (1967), Miernyk et al. (1970), Isard<br />

and Langford (1971), Jensen and McGaurr (1976, 1977), Gerking (1976, 1979), Miernyk (1979), Bulmer-<br />

Thomas (1982).<br />

16


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

2.2 Non-survey methods<br />

Increasing need for studying regional economies, lack <strong>of</strong> information at regional<br />

level and high costs associated to <strong>the</strong> survey-based methods are <strong>the</strong> main<br />

reasons for <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> non-survey methods during <strong>the</strong> 1970s. Boster and<br />

Martin (1972) found that <strong>the</strong> ratio <strong>of</strong> total budget outlay for <strong>the</strong> survey table to <strong>the</strong><br />

non-survey table was 20:1. For this reason and in consideration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fact that <strong>the</strong><br />

alternative is no table when regional information is lacking, Boster and Martin<br />

strongly supported this approach.<br />

Non-survey techniques attempt to derive <strong>the</strong> elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> transactions table<br />

from o<strong>the</strong>r (usually national) tables by various modification techniques.<br />

All non-survey methods make certain assumptions about how <strong>the</strong> economy <strong>of</strong> a<br />

place differs from <strong>the</strong> national economy (Gerking et al., 2001). A common approach<br />

is to assume that <strong>the</strong> same technology is used <strong>the</strong>re as in <strong>the</strong> nation. The<br />

main differences between <strong>the</strong> national economy and most sub-national ones are<br />

that: (1) <strong>the</strong> nation is more self-sufficient because it produces a higher proportion<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> inputs to its production and (2) <strong>the</strong> nation has a larger set <strong>of</strong> industries.<br />

Non-survey modellers typically recognize <strong>the</strong>se two factors by using a measure <strong>of</strong><br />

self-sufficiency to scale downward <strong>the</strong> input supplied by <strong>the</strong> sub-national area to<br />

its industries and by eliminating <strong>the</strong> rows and columns for industries that exist in<br />

<strong>the</strong> nation but not in <strong>the</strong> sub-national area.<br />

Given <strong>the</strong> assumption <strong>of</strong> identical regional and national technology, almost all<br />

developed methods concentrate on <strong>the</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> input and trade coefficients<br />

ra<strong>the</strong>r than technical coefficients. Stevens and Trainer (1980) demonstrated that<br />

<strong>the</strong> regional purchase coefficients used to scale down <strong>the</strong> inputs are far more important<br />

in determining <strong>the</strong> accuracy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> model than is <strong>the</strong> assumption <strong>of</strong> identical<br />

technology. However, Harrigan and McNicoll (1981), after some experiments,<br />

found that error reduction is maximum using information on a combination<br />

<strong>of</strong> trade and technical coefficients ra<strong>the</strong>r than exclusively on ei<strong>the</strong>r on or <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r.<br />

A common characteristic <strong>of</strong> all non-survey methods suggested in <strong>the</strong> literature<br />

is that <strong>the</strong>y are unable to generate zero intraregional coefficients when <strong>the</strong>re is<br />

non-zero technical linkage, providing <strong>of</strong> course <strong>the</strong> relevant industries are represented<br />

in <strong>the</strong> region (Round, 1983).<br />

Moreover, non-survey methods tend to focus on estimation <strong>of</strong> intraregional or<br />

interregional coefficients, <strong>of</strong>ten neglecting <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r portions <strong>of</strong> a regional I-O table<br />

represented by final demand and primary inputs.<br />

The methods that have been used for construction <strong>of</strong> regional I-O tables can be<br />

regrouped into two main categories: one-region non-survey methods and interregional<br />

and multiregional non-survey methods.<br />

17


Estimating<br />

Technical coefficients<br />

- Unadjusted coefficients<br />

- Price modifications<br />

- Weighted Aggregation<br />

- Fabrication effects<br />

- Location Quotients<br />

- Regional Supply Perc.<br />

- Supply-demand Pool<br />

- Regional Purchase Coeff.<br />

Fig. 2.1 – Non-survey methods’ scheme<br />

Non-survey methods<br />

One-region methods More-regions methods<br />

Estimating<br />

Input coefficients<br />

Short-cut methods Ready-made models<br />

- RIMS<br />

- Column-sum<br />

Multipliers<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

- ADOTMAR<br />

- ISAMIS<br />

- INSIGHT<br />

- IMPLAN<br />

- REMI<br />

- RIMS II<br />

Location Quotient’s<br />

Extensions<br />

Supply-demand Pool’s<br />

Extensions<br />

Chenery-Moses model<br />

Polenske model<br />

Gravity models


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

2.3 One-region non-survey methods<br />

This category <strong>of</strong> methods includes a series <strong>of</strong> methods that have been used to<br />

construct Input-Output tables only for one region. They can be regrouped into<br />

four categories:<br />

a) Methods estimating regional technical coefficients<br />

b) Methods estimating regional input coefficients<br />

c) Short-cut methods<br />

d) Ready-made models<br />

2.3.1 Regionalizing technical coefficients<br />

These techniques are concerned with estimating regional technical coefficients<br />

3 . One simple way is to suppose that regional coefficients are perfectly identical<br />

to <strong>the</strong> national ones, <strong>the</strong>refore regional coefficients are borrowed from <strong>the</strong><br />

national matrix. In reality, <strong>the</strong> national matrix is only a weighted average <strong>of</strong> a set<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional matrices. The more a regional economic structure differs from <strong>the</strong> average<br />

characteristics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> whole economic system in terms <strong>of</strong> prices, sectoral<br />

composition and technological path, <strong>the</strong> more <strong>the</strong> relevant regional matrix differs<br />

from <strong>the</strong> national one.<br />

Richardson (1972) has identified four main reasons for explaining differences<br />

existing between regional and national coefficients. First, <strong>the</strong>re may be an industry-mix<br />

and a product-mix problem. A sector at <strong>the</strong> regional level may contain different<br />

industries from that in <strong>the</strong> nation. Moreover, even if a sector at regional<br />

level has <strong>the</strong> same industries as that at national level, regional industries are likely<br />

to produce a different and probably smaller range <strong>of</strong> products or <strong>the</strong> same range<br />

but in different proportions. Thus, regional technical coefficients will vary from<br />

national coefficients. However, <strong>the</strong>se differences will be smaller <strong>the</strong> higher <strong>the</strong><br />

degree <strong>of</strong> sector disaggregation and <strong>the</strong> bigger and <strong>the</strong> more diversified <strong>the</strong> region<br />

under study. Second, different from a nation, a region is characterized by a greater<br />

“openness” since <strong>the</strong> regional propensity to import includes imports from o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

regions besides imports from abroad. For this reason, regional technical coefficients,<br />

given by <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> input and import coefficients, cannot be equal to national<br />

technical coefficients. Third, <strong>the</strong>re are differences in regional price levels<br />

largely explained by wage differentials that affect regional coefficients. Four, regional<br />

technical production functions may differ from those observed at a national<br />

level.<br />

3<br />

Regional technical coefficients express <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> inputs (both produced locally and imported) used to<br />

produce one unit <strong>of</strong> output.<br />

19


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

Basically, procedures <strong>of</strong> regionalization are aimed at removing from <strong>the</strong> initial<br />

matrix <strong>of</strong> technical coefficients all possible causes <strong>of</strong> distortion which are attributable<br />

to <strong>the</strong> following factors: (i) territorial variability <strong>of</strong> prices; (ii) differences related<br />

to sector composition in terms <strong>of</strong> both industry mix and product mix; (iii)<br />

territorial variability <strong>of</strong> technology. These procedures may be applied separately<br />

or sequentially. However, if vectors <strong>of</strong> intermediate purchases and sales were<br />

available, adjustment, taking account <strong>of</strong> technological and sector composition differences,<br />

might be made globally, without removing separately <strong>the</strong> causes <strong>of</strong> distortion,<br />

by bi-proportional adjustment procedures (Strassoldo, 1988).<br />

2.3.1.1 Use <strong>of</strong> unadjusted national coefficients<br />

The use <strong>of</strong> unmodified national technical coefficients represents one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> earliest<br />

and simplest methods used to represent <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong> a regional economy.<br />

This method has been adopted in <strong>the</strong> early regional studies (see for example Isard<br />

and Kuenne, 1953; Miller, 1957). More recently, it has been adopted by Zaitseva<br />

(2002) to derive seven 1997 regional tables for <strong>the</strong> Russian Federation.<br />

Since regional coefficients are known to vary considerably from national coefficients,<br />

<strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> unadjusted national coefficients has been strongly questioned.<br />

Harrigan et al. (1980b) compared <strong>the</strong> Scottish economic structure to that <strong>of</strong> UK<br />

confronting <strong>the</strong> 1973 table for Scotland with <strong>the</strong> 1973 table for <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom.<br />

They found that, in spite <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> existence <strong>of</strong> a common fundamental structure<br />

<strong>of</strong> production at an aggregated level, at more disaggregated level <strong>the</strong>re were<br />

significant differences between <strong>the</strong> region and <strong>the</strong> nation, probably due to different<br />

industry mix. They concluded that <strong>the</strong> assumption <strong>of</strong> identical industry technologies<br />

at regional and national level was unjustified and that any regionalization<br />

method (both non-survey and hybrid) based on this assumption would have failed<br />

in estimating regional coefficients.<br />

2.3.1.2 Price modifications<br />

The territorial variability <strong>of</strong> prices <strong>of</strong> goods and services used for production<br />

becomes important only in regional economic systems characterized by significant<br />

wage differentials and by spatial variability <strong>of</strong> remuneration rates <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

primary inputs, or by local rigidity in raw material and intermediate goods markets<br />

due to a high incidence <strong>of</strong> transport costs.<br />

Such differentials <strong>of</strong> prices affect both <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> intermediate flows and substitution<br />

process due to substitutive relationships among goods and services.<br />

However, <strong>the</strong>re could be some compensatory mechanisms keeping regional coefficients<br />

at levels which are not very different from <strong>the</strong> national ones. To take account<br />

<strong>of</strong> price differentials, it is necessary to have a vector <strong>of</strong> regional prices <strong>of</strong><br />

20


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

each class <strong>of</strong> intermediate goods and a corresponding vector <strong>of</strong> national prices. In<br />

this case, consequences from price differentials can be eliminated in <strong>the</strong> following<br />

way (Strassoldo, 1988):<br />

p<br />

<br />

A = P A P<br />

( ) -1<br />

r r n n<br />

where P is a diagonalized vector <strong>of</strong> prices, r indicates <strong>the</strong> region, n indicates <strong>the</strong><br />

nation, p means that <strong>the</strong> national matrix is regionalized with respect to price differentials,<br />

A is a matrix <strong>of</strong> technical coefficients.<br />

Unfortunately, this procedure is not feasible since it requests <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong><br />

two vectors <strong>of</strong> prices or, at least, <strong>of</strong> sufficient data to estimate prices for all sectors.<br />

And also when <strong>the</strong> national price vector is available or may be easily estimated,<br />

<strong>the</strong>re is always <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> estimating regional prices since prices indices<br />

at regional level and at a proper level <strong>of</strong> sector disaggregation are <strong>of</strong>ten unavailable.<br />

2.3.1.3 Aggregation techniques<br />

Differences in terms <strong>of</strong> sector composition determine a high degree <strong>of</strong> divergence<br />

between regional and national technical coefficients. Problems posed by<br />

<strong>the</strong>se differences are faced by proper procedures <strong>of</strong> aggregation <strong>of</strong> national coefficients,<br />

which are weighted to reflect <strong>the</strong> sector structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional economy<br />

(Shen, 1960). This procedure is accomplished in <strong>the</strong> following way:<br />

s<br />

A =G A W<br />

r r n r<br />

r<br />

where sA is a m× m regional matrix regionalized with respect to <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

sector composition;<br />

n<br />

A is a n× n national matrix <strong>of</strong> technical coefficients<br />

r<br />

( n > m);<br />

G is a m× n matrix <strong>of</strong> aggregation, reflecting <strong>the</strong> number and <strong>the</strong><br />

r<br />

structure <strong>of</strong> regional sectors and with unitary and null elements; W is a n× m<br />

weighting matrix whose weights are regional output ratios; s means that <strong>the</strong> national<br />

matrix is regionalized with respect to <strong>the</strong> regional sector composition.<br />

Boudeville (1966) observed that this long procedure can be avoided, obtaining <strong>the</strong><br />

same results, multiplying <strong>the</strong> national transactions table by a diagonalized vector<br />

<strong>of</strong> ratios between regional and national output and, successively, aggregating <strong>the</strong><br />

weighted matrix at a desired level.<br />

This procedure requests <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> national matrix having a high level<br />

<strong>of</strong> sector disaggregation and a regional vector <strong>of</strong> output at a sufficient disaggregation<br />

level. It is evident that this procedure needs for a considerable volume <strong>of</strong> re-<br />

21


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

gional information which is <strong>of</strong>ten unavailable. For this, modellers <strong>of</strong>ten use proxies<br />

for weighting <strong>the</strong> national matrix, such as value added, wages and salaries,<br />

sales, etc.. These latter are approximations producing errors which are correlated<br />

to <strong>the</strong> intensity and to <strong>the</strong> nature <strong>of</strong> relationships between regional output and <strong>the</strong><br />

variable used as a proxy.<br />

This approach has been also used by Czamanski and Malizia (1969) to model<br />

regional economies. Walderhaug (1972) tested <strong>the</strong> differences between surveybased<br />

regional coefficients for <strong>the</strong> Washington State economy and regional coefficients<br />

obtained by aggregation using estimates <strong>of</strong> regional gross outputs from<br />

<strong>the</strong> US 1963 national table. He found that, in most cases, differences could be reasonably<br />

accepted and <strong>the</strong> largest discrepancies were essentially due to <strong>the</strong> poor<br />

quality <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> survey coefficients.<br />

2.3.1.4 Fabrication effects<br />

Technology differences are certainly those mostly affecting regional technical<br />

coefficients and explaining differences between regional and national coefficients.<br />

These differences may be faced using several ways: for instance, adjustments<br />

based on engineering evaluations or full use <strong>of</strong> several kinds <strong>of</strong> statistical information.<br />

It has been noted (Round, 1978) and empirically demonstrated (Harrigan et<br />

al., 1980b) that differences between regional and national coefficients should be<br />

attributed to different value added coefficients. Consequently, <strong>the</strong> regionalization<br />

might be effected by multiplying each technical coefficient <strong>of</strong> a given sector by a<br />

scaling factor, <strong>the</strong> so-called “fabrication effect”, modifying <strong>the</strong> entire column vector.<br />

Fabrication effects are measures suggested by Round (1972, 1978) to adjust national<br />

coefficients in order to derive regional technical coefficients.<br />

The regional fabrication effect for sector j and region R takes <strong>the</strong> following<br />

form:<br />

22<br />

R ( Wj R<br />

X j )<br />

( Wj X j )<br />

⎡1−⎤ R<br />

ρ j =<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

N N<br />

⎡1−⎤ ⎣ ⎦<br />

⎡ ⎤<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

is <strong>the</strong><br />

proportion <strong>of</strong> total output related to inputs from <strong>the</strong> processing sectors (including<br />

imports). In o<strong>the</strong>r words, it measures <strong>the</strong> dependence <strong>of</strong> sector j on inputs from<br />

<strong>the</strong> same sector and <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs. So <strong>the</strong> fabrication effect is an estimate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

dependence <strong>of</strong> a given regional sector on intermediate inputs compared to <strong>the</strong><br />

where W represents <strong>the</strong> value added and N is <strong>the</strong> nation. 1− ( Wj X j)


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

same sector at national level. Regional technical coefficients are estimated as follows:<br />

r = ρ a<br />

R N<br />

ij j ij<br />

N<br />

where a ij is <strong>the</strong> national technical coefficient. The national matrix is thus modified<br />

uniformly across columns. The idea is that if importance <strong>of</strong> intermediate inputs<br />

for a given sector at regional level is relatively less than that at national level<br />

R<br />

R<br />

( ρ j < 1),<br />

national coefficients are scaled downwards. Similarly, if ρ j > 1,<br />

national<br />

coefficients are scaled upwards. This kind <strong>of</strong> adjustment is similar in spirit<br />

to <strong>the</strong> column adjustments in <strong>the</strong> RAS updating procedure aimed at taking account<br />

<strong>of</strong> what was defined by Stone as “fabrication effect”, that is <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong><br />

changes in <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> value added in a sector’s output over time (see par.<br />

3.2.2.1).<br />

2.3.2 Estimating regional input coefficients<br />

All non-survey techniques aimed at estimating regional input coefficients assume<br />

that regional and national technologies are identical 4 . All attempt to face this<br />

problem: how to modify each matrix row, expressing <strong>the</strong> regional pattern <strong>of</strong> productive<br />

allocation, to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fact that each regional productive sector<br />

may satisfy, exactly or to a lower or upper extent, <strong>the</strong> regional demand <strong>of</strong> goods<br />

produced by <strong>the</strong> same sector. The main hypo<strong>the</strong>sis is that regional purchasers prefer<br />

to buy from regional producers and decide to import only when regional production<br />

is not sufficient to satisfy local requirements. Moreover, it is assumed that<br />

regional producers export only <strong>the</strong> quantity exceeding <strong>the</strong> regional demand. This<br />

implies that spatial differences, in terms <strong>of</strong> transport and communication, are such<br />

that regional producers do not compete with extra-regional producers. The consequence<br />

is that all techniques tend to overestimate <strong>the</strong> volume <strong>of</strong> local transactions<br />

and thus <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> regional input coefficients and to underestimate imports and<br />

exports.<br />

Methods included in this category are: location quotient approach, regional<br />

supply percentages, supply-demand pool approach and regional purchase coefficients.<br />

4 Regional input coefficients express <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> locally produced goods and services used to produce one<br />

unit <strong>of</strong> output. The regional technical coefficient is supposed to be <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional input coefficient<br />

and <strong>the</strong> regional import coefficient expressing <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> goods and services imported from o<strong>the</strong>r regions<br />

and from abroad and used to produce one unit <strong>of</strong> output. Supposing that regional technical coefficient equals<br />

<strong>the</strong> national one, regional import coefficient is estimated subtracting regional input coefficient from national<br />

(regional) technical coefficient.<br />

23


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

2.3.2.1 Location quotient approach<br />

This approach is borrowed from economic base <strong>the</strong>ory. The regional input co-<br />

R N<br />

efficient is estimated in <strong>the</strong> following way: aij = qijaij , where q ij represents <strong>the</strong><br />

location quotient and it results that 0< qij<br />

≤ 1.<br />

Regional input coefficients and regional<br />

import coefficients ( R<br />

t ij ) are estimated as follows:<br />

24<br />

a<br />

t<br />

N<br />

⎧ ⎪aij<br />

qij if qij<br />

< 1<br />

= ⎨<br />

⎪⎩ aij if qij≥1<br />

R<br />

ij N<br />

R<br />

ij<br />

( )<br />

N ⎧⎪ aij ⋅ 1− qijif qij<br />

< 1<br />

= ⎨<br />

⎪⎩ 0 if qij<br />

≥ 1<br />

There are several variants <strong>of</strong> location quotients that estimate in different ways<br />

<strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> q ij . Here, we will consider <strong>the</strong> following ones: simple location quotient,<br />

purchases-only location quotient, West’s location quotient, cross industry<br />

location quotient, symmetric cross industry location quotient, semilogarithmic<br />

quotient and Flegg’s location quotient.<br />

Simple Location Quotient. The first location quotient that has been adopted is<br />

<strong>the</strong> Simple Location Quotient (SLQ) (Shaffer and Chu, 1969a, 1969b; Morrison<br />

and Smith, 1974; Round, 1978; Sawyer and Miller, 1983; Robison and Miller,<br />

1988; Harris and Liu, 1998; Flegg and Webber, 2000; Beyers, 2000; Gerking et<br />

al., 2001; Parrè et al., 2002).<br />

It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

X X<br />

SLQ<br />

X X<br />

R R<br />

i = i<br />

N<br />

i<br />

N<br />

where i indexes a given sector, X represents <strong>the</strong> output, R and N indicate <strong>the</strong><br />

region and <strong>the</strong> nation, respectively. The SLQ compares <strong>the</strong> relative importance <strong>of</strong><br />

an industry in a region and its relative importance in <strong>the</strong> nation. It is a measure <strong>of</strong><br />

regional concentration <strong>of</strong> production.<br />

The logic is that if <strong>the</strong> relative importance at a regional level <strong>of</strong> a given sector<br />

is equal or greater than that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> same sector at a national level ( SLQi ≥ 1),<br />

<strong>the</strong><br />

sector is considered to be self-sufficient (it does not need for imports) and <strong>the</strong> national<br />

coefficient is not reduced. O<strong>the</strong>rwise ( SLQ i < 1),<br />

<strong>the</strong> sector is supposed not


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

to be self-sufficient. So, <strong>the</strong> national coefficient is reduced and <strong>the</strong> import coefficient<br />

is estimated as difference between <strong>the</strong> national coefficient and <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

input coefficient.<br />

The SLQ method is <strong>of</strong>ten followed by fur<strong>the</strong>r adjustments. This is because estimates<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional industry output that are obtained using SLQ-based coefficients<br />

may exceed actual output for some industries; <strong>the</strong>refore, coefficients produced by<br />

this method are rescaled to avoid overestimating regional output 5 (Miller and<br />

Blair, 1985).<br />

According to Round (1978), <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> regional input coefficients can be expressed<br />

in <strong>the</strong> following way:<br />

R ⎛ R R<br />

R X X i j X ⎞ R<br />

aij = f ⎜ , , , k<br />

⎜ N N N ij ⎟<br />

Xi X j X ⎟<br />

⎝ ⎠<br />

The function establishes that regional input coefficients depend on: (a) <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional selling sector i compared to that national; (b) <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional purchasing sector j compared to that national; (c) <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region compared to <strong>the</strong> nation; (d) additional unspecified factors. It is<br />

easy to note that SLQ incorporates <strong>the</strong> first and <strong>the</strong> third property.<br />

The SLQ-based approach has several drawbacks:<br />

(a) It assumes for a region <strong>the</strong> same consumption functions, production techniques<br />

and industry mixes than those at national level (Richardson, 1972).<br />

(b) It is an asymmetric method since it allows resizing national coefficients<br />

downwards but not upwards.<br />

(c) Data related to regional output vector are <strong>of</strong>ten unavailable, <strong>the</strong>refore analysts<br />

are forced to use proxies <strong>of</strong> output such as employment or value<br />

added (Strassoldo, 1988).<br />

(d) It establishes import needs in constant proportions for <strong>the</strong> appropriate rows<br />

since rows <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national table are modified uniformly. In this way, imports<br />

are redistributed within sectors in <strong>the</strong> same way as regional production<br />

is distributed (Richardson, 1972).<br />

5 Miller and Blair (1985) present a method, which, according to <strong>the</strong>m, is usually adopted to adjust coefficients.<br />

Practically, output <strong>of</strong> each sector is estimated summing intermediate sales, obtained multiplying regional<br />

coefficients by actual regional output, to final demand, obtained multiplying final demand coefficients<br />

by actual regional final demand. Final demand coefficients are ratios between national components <strong>of</strong> final<br />

demand and total national final demand, scaled down if SLQ is less than one. If ratio between estimated and<br />

actual output is greater than one (output is thus overestimated) regional coefficients are scaled down multiplying<br />

<strong>the</strong>se latter by <strong>the</strong> inverse <strong>of</strong> output ratio. O<strong>the</strong>rwise, regional coefficients remain unchanged.<br />

25


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

26<br />

(e) It tends to overestimate regional input coefficients and underestimate regional<br />

imports. The first source <strong>of</strong> error comes from neglecting <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

size <strong>of</strong> purchasing sectors (<strong>the</strong> second Round’s property). In effect, <strong>the</strong><br />

SLQ implies that a sector with a bigger relative importance than <strong>the</strong> national<br />

one can sell goods to a sector, whose relative importance is less than<br />

that at a national level, to <strong>the</strong> extent suggested by <strong>the</strong> national coefficient<br />

so overestimating <strong>the</strong> regional input coefficient and thus <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> multipliers<br />

6 (Johns and Leat, 1987). The second source <strong>of</strong> error derives from<br />

ignoring cross-hauling <strong>of</strong> commodities since imports and exports <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

same commodity are denied. Norcliffe (1983) showed that cross-hauling is<br />

particularly present when industries are characterized by product differentiation<br />

and brand preference. The tendency to overestimate multipliers<br />

and underestimating imports is generally recognized as <strong>the</strong> main limit <strong>of</strong><br />

SLQ. However, “knowing <strong>the</strong> direction <strong>of</strong> bias is <strong>of</strong>ten helpful when drawing<br />

policy and planning inferences from an input-output study” (Gerking<br />

et al., 2001, p. 382).<br />

Variants <strong>of</strong> SLQ are contained in Morrison and Smith (1974) and Sawyer and<br />

Miller (1983). Morrison and Smith apply <strong>the</strong> SLQ to a national table where intrasectoral<br />

flows for some sectors (all manufacturing sectors and construction) are<br />

set to zero to avoid overestimating regional intrasectoral flows.<br />

Sawyer and Miller adjust SLQ to account for differences in <strong>the</strong> regional “fabrication<br />

effect”. For each sector, column coefficients derived by SLQ are multiplied<br />

by <strong>the</strong> Round’s “regional fabrication effect”.<br />

Purchases-Only Location Quotient. This location quotient was suggested by<br />

Tiebout (Consad, 1967) and explored by Morrison and Smith (1974). For sector i<br />

and region R, it takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

X X<br />

PLQ<br />

X X<br />

R * R<br />

i = i<br />

N<br />

i<br />

* N<br />

6 The systematic tendency to overstate multipliers is even more marked when SLQ is applied to small economies<br />

in which transport costs are relatively low (Harris and Liu, 1998) or to economies which do not coincide<br />

with self-sufficient areas (Robison and Miller, 1987). Robison and Miller, in a study <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> timber economy<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> West-central Idaho Highlands, have shown that <strong>the</strong> location quotient (but also <strong>the</strong> supply-demand pool)<br />

approach should not be applied when <strong>the</strong> area under study does not coincide with a functional economic area,<br />

in which businesses and households purchase most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir services in <strong>the</strong> same area. This is because, in that<br />

case, interregional trade would be more intense and location quotients would fail in <strong>cap</strong>turing this volume <strong>of</strong><br />

trade, overestimating <strong>the</strong> intraregional one.


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

*<br />

where X is <strong>the</strong> output <strong>of</strong> only those industries that use i as input. The logic behind<br />

is simply that if input i is not used by a given sector, <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> this sector in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> output is uninfluential in determining if a region can or cannot satisfy all<br />

local requirements about input i.<br />

Costa (1973) notes that, rewriting <strong>the</strong> PLQ, this location quotient can be read<br />

as a ratio between <strong>the</strong> concentration <strong>of</strong> sector i’s output in <strong>the</strong> region and <strong>the</strong> concentration<br />

<strong>of</strong> commodity i’s demand (only for intermediate uses), estimated by <strong>the</strong><br />

regional concentration <strong>of</strong> output <strong>of</strong> sectors using commodity i. In fact, PLQ can be<br />

rearranged as:<br />

X X<br />

PLQ<br />

X X<br />

R N<br />

i = i<br />

* R<br />

i<br />

* N<br />

Costa argues that PLQ could be improved in approximating <strong>the</strong> regional structure,<br />

if final demand along with intermediate demand was taken into consideration.<br />

Thus, he proposes <strong>the</strong> following modification:<br />

( *<br />

+ )<br />

( *<br />

+ )<br />

X X FD<br />

cLQ<br />

X X FD<br />

R R R<br />

i =<br />

i<br />

N<br />

i<br />

N N<br />

West’s Location Quotient. West (1980), in order to overcome some deficiencies<br />

<strong>of</strong> SLQ (assumption <strong>of</strong> uniformity in production and demand/consumption<br />

patterns throughout <strong>the</strong> nation) proposed <strong>the</strong> following location quotient:<br />

( θθ)(<br />

)<br />

WLQ = SLQ C C<br />

i i i i<br />

where<br />

r ( E<br />

r n<br />

X ) ( E<br />

n<br />

X )<br />

nation ( E is employment and X refers to output); i<br />

r ( Ei r n<br />

Xi ) ( Ei n<br />

Xi<br />

)<br />

θ = is <strong>the</strong> productivity ratio <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region relative to <strong>the</strong><br />

θ = is<br />

<strong>the</strong> productivity ratio <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> industry in <strong>the</strong> region relative to <strong>the</strong> same industry at<br />

r<br />

national level; C = C<br />

n<br />

C refers to <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> regional per <strong>cap</strong>ita consumption<br />

r<br />

relative to <strong>the</strong> nation; C = C<br />

n<br />

C is <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> regional per <strong>cap</strong>ita consumption<br />

i i i<br />

<strong>of</strong> commodity i relative to <strong>the</strong> nation. The first factor ( )<br />

i<br />

θ θ is an attempt to consider<br />

labour productivity differences between corresponding regional and national<br />

industries and between <strong>the</strong> region and <strong>the</strong> nation. The productivity is approximated<br />

by labour-output ratios. If regional productivity <strong>of</strong> sector i is higher than<br />

27


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

that at national level (<strong>the</strong> ratio between employment and output is lower), <strong>the</strong><br />

WLQ will be higher and accordingly regional imports will be relatively lower. On<br />

<strong>the</strong> contrary, <strong>the</strong> second factor ( CCi) is an attempt to take account <strong>of</strong> demand<br />

and consumption pattern differences throughout <strong>the</strong> nation. If local per <strong>cap</strong>ita consumption<br />

for commodity i is higher than <strong>the</strong> corresponding national per <strong>cap</strong>ita<br />

consumption, <strong>the</strong> WLQ will be lower, resulting in relatively higher regional imports.<br />

Comparing input-output tables for <strong>the</strong> South Australian region derived using<br />

both SLQ and WLQ, West concluded that <strong>the</strong> WLQ performs much better<br />

than <strong>the</strong> SLQ in estimating regional trade coefficients especially when regions are<br />

relatively more distant from <strong>the</strong> national “average”.<br />

Cross Industry Location Quotient. To overcome drawbacks related to SLQ, <strong>the</strong><br />

Cross Industry Location Quotient (CILQ) has been introduced (Schaffer and Chu,<br />

1969a, 1969b; Morrison and Smith, 1974; Brand, 1997; Flegg and Webber, 2000;<br />

Oude Wansink, 2000).<br />

The CILQ takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

28<br />

CILQ<br />

X X<br />

R N<br />

ij = i<br />

R<br />

X j<br />

i<br />

N<br />

X j<br />

The CILQ compares <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> national output <strong>of</strong> selling industry i in <strong>the</strong><br />

region to that <strong>of</strong> purchasing industry j. Different from SLQ, <strong>the</strong> CILQ enables import<br />

proportions to vary within <strong>the</strong> rows since it allows for differing cell-by-cell<br />

adjustments ra<strong>the</strong>r than uniform adjustments along each row. The logic behind<br />

this method is that if sector i at <strong>the</strong> regional level is relatively smaller than sector j<br />

at regional level ( CILQ ij < 1 ) <strong>the</strong>n it is assumed that some inputs for sector j will<br />

be imported. O<strong>the</strong>rwise, if CILQij ≥ 1<strong>the</strong>n<br />

all sector j ’s needs in terms <strong>of</strong> inputs<br />

will be supplied from within <strong>the</strong> region. Compared to SLQ, CILQ takes account<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> both purchasing and selling sectors at regional level. However,<br />

it has three new drawbacks:<br />

(a) it does not consider <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region. This causes that regional imports<br />

coefficients <strong>of</strong> a small region will be equal to those <strong>of</strong> a great region while<br />

imports <strong>of</strong> a small region will be bigger than imports <strong>of</strong> a greater region.<br />

Therefore, imports tend to be underestimated.<br />

(b) Midmore and Harrison-Mayfield (1996) point out that, since CILQ does not<br />

consider <strong>the</strong> weighting <strong>of</strong> industries relative to <strong>the</strong> output <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region, it<br />

fails in attempting to represent <strong>the</strong> economy <strong>of</strong> a rural region. In fact, in ru-


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

ral areas, agriculture is far more important to employment and this would<br />

not be recognised using CILQ, differently from SLQ.<br />

(c) CILQ ii = 1.<br />

This brings about that <strong>the</strong> intraregional input coefficients (on <strong>the</strong><br />

principal diagonal) are overestimated for two reasons. Firstly, it implies that<br />

a sector is always able to satisfy all requirements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> same sector even<br />

when <strong>the</strong> local industry is small (Morrison and Smith, 1974). Secondly, <strong>the</strong><br />

intrasectoral trade at <strong>the</strong> national level is mostly represented by interregional<br />

trade, so <strong>the</strong> regional input coefficient, remaining equal to <strong>the</strong> national coefficient,<br />

would incorporate trade among regions (Flegg et al., 1995).<br />

Variants <strong>of</strong> CILQ are contained in Morrison and Smith (1974). They apply CILQ<br />

to all non-on-diagonal national coefficients and SLQ to on-diagonal national coefficients<br />

to avoid <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> unity along <strong>the</strong> principal diagonal associated to<br />

CILQ. They also apply CILQ after zeroing on-diagonal national coefficients for<br />

some sectors to avoid overestimating regional intrasectoral flows.<br />

Symmetric Cross Industry Location Quotient. One variant <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> traditional<br />

CILQ is <strong>the</strong> symmetric CILQ (Oude Wansink and Maks, 1998). This method has<br />

been adopted to derive 1992 I-O tables <strong>of</strong> twelve Dutch regions. The conclusion<br />

<strong>of</strong> this study is that multipliers obtained by <strong>the</strong> symmetric CILQ (SCILQ) are<br />

lower than <strong>the</strong> ones obtained by adopting <strong>the</strong> traditional CILQ. The SCILQ is designed<br />

to take into consideration <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> deriving regional coefficients<br />

that exceed <strong>the</strong> national ones, overcoming <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> asymmetric adjustments.<br />

It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

SCILQ<br />

ij<br />

2<br />

= 2 −<br />

CILQ<br />

ij<br />

+ 1<br />

The logic behind is <strong>the</strong> following one. If CILQ equals zero or one, <strong>the</strong>n SCILQ<br />

equals zero or one. If CILQ goes to infinity, SCILQ goes to two. In so doing, <strong>the</strong><br />

regional coefficients not only take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> fact that sectors may be less<br />

concentrated in a region, but also that sectors may be more concentrated. Oude<br />

Wansink and Maks, after applying <strong>the</strong> SCILQ, make two fur<strong>the</strong>r adjustments.<br />

First, <strong>the</strong> regional coefficients are successively rescaled to a fixed sum <strong>of</strong> intermediary<br />

transactions obtained by subtracting from output, <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> value added<br />

and international and interregional imports (previously estimated on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong><br />

information related to transportation <strong>of</strong> goods and movements <strong>of</strong> individuals<br />

across regions). Second, it is admitted <strong>the</strong> possibility that in some cells, because <strong>of</strong><br />

aggregation, regional transactions may be wrongly bigger than national transactions,<br />

so a fur<strong>the</strong>r adjustment is made.<br />

29


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

Semilogarithmic Quotient. A fur<strong>the</strong>r location quotient is <strong>the</strong> semilogarithmic<br />

quotient (Round, 1972, 1978; Morrison and Smith, 1974; Batey et al., 1993; Flegg<br />

et al., 1995; Brand, 1997). Variants <strong>of</strong> this method appear in Morrison and Smith<br />

(1974). The location quotient takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

30<br />

RLQ<br />

ij<br />

SLQi<br />

=<br />

log 1<br />

2<br />

( + SLQj<br />

)<br />

According to Round, this method incorporates <strong>the</strong> properties <strong>of</strong> both <strong>the</strong> SLQ and<br />

CILQ methods. He recognizes that its form is arbitrary but it maintains properties<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r methods without fur<strong>the</strong>r parametrization.<br />

However, Flegg et al. (1995) argued that this method does not really take account<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region since it fails in attributing larger input coefficients<br />

(smaller import coefficients) to larger regions.<br />

Flegg Location Quotient. This location quotient is a modification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Semilogarithmic<br />

Quotient (Flegg et al. 1995; Flegg and Webber, 1996a, 1996b,<br />

1997; Brand, 1997; McCann and Dewhurst, 1998; Flegg and Webber, 2000). The<br />

FLQ takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

E E<br />

FLQ CILQ<br />

R R<br />

ij =<br />

i<br />

N<br />

Ei j<br />

N<br />

Ej<br />

*<br />

⋅ λ =<br />

*<br />

ij ⋅ λ<br />

*<br />

R N<br />

where = log2 ( 1+<br />

E E )<br />

δ<br />

λ ⎡ ⎤<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

, 0 1 δ<br />

*<br />

≤ < ; 0≤λ≤ 1.<br />

The FLQ seems to be <strong>the</strong>oretically <strong>the</strong> most appropriate. In effect, it is designed to<br />

incorporate <strong>the</strong> properties <strong>of</strong> CILQ and to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region.<br />

The larger <strong>the</strong> regional size, <strong>the</strong> greater <strong>the</strong> regional input coefficients and <strong>the</strong><br />

smaller <strong>the</strong> regional import coefficients. The use <strong>of</strong> FLQ requires estimating <strong>the</strong><br />

δ parameter. If <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> δ is bigger, <strong>the</strong> adjustment for regional imports will<br />

be greater. So, this parameter is inversely related to <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region. On <strong>the</strong><br />

basis <strong>of</strong> studies concerning <strong>the</strong> small English town <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> Peterborough in 1968<br />

(Morrison and Smith, 1974) and Scotland in 1989 (Flegg and Webber, 1996a,<br />

1996b), Flegg and Webber (1997) find that an approximate value for δ <strong>of</strong> 0.3 allows<br />

deriving closer multipliers to those obtained by surveys than multipliers obtained<br />

by <strong>the</strong> conventional cross industry location quotients.<br />

However, <strong>the</strong> authors remind that more empirical studies are needed to confirm<br />

<strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> δ . Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, it has to be kept in mind that <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> parameter<br />

significantly affects regional coefficients when regional employment is<br />

relatively little important (Fig. 2.2).


Fig. 2.2 – The function<br />

*<br />

λ - Flegg Location Quotient<br />

Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

Note: TRE and TNE are total regional employment and total national employment, respectively.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

2.3.2.2 Regional supply percentages<br />

Analogous to <strong>the</strong> LQ approach, this method (Miller, 1957; Miller and Blair,<br />

1985) assumes that <strong>the</strong> technology <strong>of</strong> production <strong>of</strong> a given regional sector is <strong>the</strong><br />

same as that at national level. Regional supply percentages are defined as follows:<br />

p<br />

=<br />

R R ( Xi − Ei<br />

)<br />

( Xi − Ei + Mi<br />

)<br />

R<br />

i R R R<br />

where E are exports and M are imports. The ratio represents <strong>the</strong> share <strong>of</strong> total<br />

production available in <strong>the</strong> region that is locally produced. These percentages uniformly<br />

adjust rows <strong>of</strong> national coefficients to derive estimates <strong>of</strong> regional input<br />

coefficients. One evident empirical disadvantage related to this method is <strong>the</strong> requirement<br />

<strong>of</strong> data concerning regional output, exports and imports by sector that<br />

are <strong>of</strong>ten unavailable at regional level.<br />

31


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

2.3.2.3 Supply-demand pool approach<br />

The supply-demand pool technique was derived from <strong>the</strong> concept <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

commodity balance developed by Isard (1953). The term “supply-demand pool”<br />

was given by Schaffer and Chu (1969a). The commodity balance is <strong>the</strong> total regional<br />

output produced by a specific sector less <strong>the</strong> regional demand <strong>of</strong> that sector<br />

represented by <strong>the</strong> local production needs (as input) and local consumption needs.<br />

Regional demand is estimated as sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> product between each national coeffi-<br />

cient ( N<br />

ij<br />

portions <strong>of</strong> final demands ( N<br />

if<br />

32<br />

a ) and actual regional output ( X ) and <strong>the</strong> product between national pro-<br />

∑ ∑<br />

D = a X + c Y<br />

R N R N<br />

i ij j if f<br />

j f<br />

R<br />

j<br />

c ) and regional final demands ( Y f ). That is:<br />

The regional commodity balance for a given sector is calculated as difference be-<br />

R R<br />

tween regional output and regional demand ( bi = Xi − Di<br />

).<br />

Regional input coefficients and regional import coefficients are derived as follows:<br />

a<br />

( ) if 0<br />

N R R<br />

⎧ ⎪aij<br />

XiDi bi<<br />

= ⎨<br />

⎪⎩ aij if bi≥0<br />

R<br />

ij N<br />

R ⎧ N ⎛ X ⎞ i<br />

ij 1 if i 0<br />

R ⎪a ⎜ − b<br />

R ⎟ <<br />

tij = ⎨ ⎝ Di<br />

⎠<br />

⎪<br />

⎩ 0 if bi<br />

≥ 0<br />

The system above implies that if <strong>the</strong> balance is positive or zero, all inputs can<br />

be supplied by local producers, imports are set to zero and exports are assumed<br />

equal to <strong>the</strong> surplus. In this case, national coefficients remain unmodified. Instead,<br />

if <strong>the</strong> balance is negative, some inputs must be imported and national coefficients<br />

are scaled down by <strong>the</strong> amount necessary to make <strong>the</strong> regional balance exactly<br />

zero.<br />

The supply-demand pool approach has several analogies to location quotients.<br />

Round (1972) points out that <strong>the</strong> technique is <strong>the</strong> same as <strong>the</strong> cross-industry location<br />

quotient with <strong>the</strong> difference that <strong>the</strong> output-demand ratios are substituted for<br />

gross output proportions. Like location quotients, this approach suffers from <strong>the</strong><br />

same weaknesses. However, it does not require additional steps in terms <strong>of</strong> ad-


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

justments for correcting negative balancing and it allows determining regional exports<br />

as a residual. Moreover, its need for information is not prohibitive. Never<strong>the</strong>less,<br />

it requires much more information that is <strong>the</strong> regional vector <strong>of</strong> output and<br />

final demand net <strong>of</strong> exports in addition to a national matrix.<br />

Studies related to this technique are for instance those <strong>of</strong> Moore and Petersen<br />

(1955), Schaffer and Chu (1969a), Morrison and Smith (1974), Sawyer and Miller<br />

(1983), Mattas et al. (1984), Jin (1991), Tzouvelekas and Mattas (1995), Jackson<br />

(1998).<br />

Some variants <strong>of</strong> this method have been developed. For example Schaffer and<br />

Chu (1969a) developed an iterative procedure as a refinement to <strong>the</strong> SDP technique,<br />

referred to as Regional Input-Output Table Simulator (RIOT). O<strong>the</strong>r modifications<br />

can be found in Kokat (1966), Nevin et al. (1966), Morrison and Smith<br />

(1974), Vanwynsberghe (1976), Alward and Palmer (1981), Valma (1993), Robison<br />

et al. (1993), Robison (1997), Roy (1999).<br />

2.3.2.4 Regional purchase coefficients<br />

This approach was developed by Stevens and his colleagues at <strong>the</strong> Regional<br />

Science Research Institute (Stevens et al., 1983). Regional purchase coefficients<br />

are proportions <strong>of</strong> regional demand for sector outputs that are satisfied by regional<br />

production. Formally, for region R and good i, <strong>the</strong>y take <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

RPC<br />

z<br />

R<br />

i = R<br />

R<br />

i<br />

R<br />

( zi + mi<br />

)<br />

R<br />

where z i represent sales <strong>of</strong> good i from local producers to local buyers (exports<br />

R<br />

are not considered) while m i are imports from outside region R to local buyers. It<br />

R<br />

results that 0 < RPCi<br />

≤ 1 . As can be easily noted, regional purchase coefficients<br />

are identical to regional supply percentages and <strong>the</strong>y are applied in <strong>the</strong> same way.<br />

RPCs are estimated via regression methods. They are expressed as a function<br />

<strong>of</strong> a series <strong>of</strong> independent variables. Then, <strong>the</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> function are estimated<br />

on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> cross-section data mostly taken from censuses. For manufacturing<br />

industries, <strong>the</strong> regression function takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

( ) 1 β β2<br />

RPC = Q D P<br />

i i i i<br />

where i Q is <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> good i produced in <strong>the</strong> region, D i is total use <strong>of</strong> good<br />

i in <strong>the</strong> region and P i is <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> good i produced in <strong>the</strong> region and<br />

33


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

shipped to intraregional destinations. For <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r industries, <strong>the</strong> function is more<br />

complex:<br />

34<br />

r n r n r n β4<br />

r n<br />

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )<br />

β β β β<br />

RPC = β w w e e W V SLQ A A<br />

1 2 3 5<br />

i 0 i i i i i i i<br />

where w are wages; e is employment; W is tonnage <strong>of</strong> shipments; V is <strong>the</strong> value<br />

<strong>of</strong> shipments; A is land; r and n are superscripts for <strong>the</strong> region and <strong>the</strong> nation,<br />

respectively. This is a simplified version <strong>of</strong> ano<strong>the</strong>r equation which would include<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r relative costs, if available, relative output (ra<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> proxy <strong>of</strong> relative<br />

employment) and relative transport costs, for which <strong>the</strong> weight-value ratio, location<br />

quotient and relative regional size are a complicated proxy.<br />

Although Stevens et al. (1983) found that this technique performed quite well<br />

after comparing a survey-based table for <strong>the</strong> state <strong>of</strong> Washington to a table produced<br />

using RPCs, <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> applying this technique outside <strong>the</strong> USA context<br />

appears to be extremely limited because <strong>of</strong> insufficient availability <strong>of</strong> data<br />

(Strassoldo, 1988).<br />

2.3.3 Short-cut methods<br />

These methods have been conceived to derive regional multipliers without <strong>the</strong><br />

need for constructing a full regional I-O table. The inclusion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se techniques<br />

within non-survey methods is justified by <strong>the</strong> common objective to reduce costs<br />

deriving from <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> regional tables. Noteworthy contributions to this<br />

research field come from Davis (1976, 1978), Drake (1976), Miernyk (1976),<br />

Latham and Montgomery (1979), Burford and Katz (1977, 1981, 1985), Phibbs<br />

and Holsman (1980, 1981), Jensen and Hewings (1985a, 1985b).<br />

One short-cut technique is <strong>the</strong> RIMS (regional industrial multiplier system)<br />

method developed by Drake (1976) and subsequently extended by Cartwright et<br />

al. (1981). It involves computing <strong>the</strong> direct component <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional multiplier<br />

by applying <strong>the</strong> location quotient to adjust <strong>the</strong> national input-output coefficient,<br />

and using this along with data on <strong>the</strong> proportions <strong>of</strong> earnings derived from agriculture<br />

and manufacturing in <strong>the</strong> region to estimate <strong>the</strong> indirect component <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

multiplier. This is achieved by using coefficients derived from a regression equation<br />

fitted to indirect and direct multiplier components from survey-based regional<br />

models and <strong>the</strong> national model. Latham and Montgomery (1979) found that this<br />

method generated multipliers which were closer to survey-based multipliers than<br />

those estimated by <strong>the</strong> simple location method. Never<strong>the</strong>less, <strong>the</strong>y defined this<br />

method as a crude approximation <strong>of</strong> usual multipliers derived from tables.<br />

The alternative is given by <strong>the</strong> “column-sum multiplier”, so called by Richardson<br />

(1985), developed by Burford and Katz (1977, 1981, 1985). They suggest that


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

<strong>the</strong> gross output multiplier for a sector, that is <strong>the</strong> column sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Leontief inverse,<br />

can be approximated by:<br />

⎛ 1 ⎞<br />

K = 1+<br />

⎜ ⎟V<br />

⎝1−V⎠ j j<br />

n<br />

where V = ∑ a and V = ( 1 n) ∑ V . V is thus <strong>the</strong> mean <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> column sums <strong>of</strong><br />

j ij<br />

i<br />

n<br />

i<br />

i<br />

<strong>the</strong> A matrix. There are some questions related to this technique. First, <strong>the</strong> method<br />

implicitly assumes that <strong>the</strong> expected value <strong>of</strong> each coefficient in a column is equal<br />

to <strong>the</strong> column mean, ignoring structural features <strong>of</strong> regional matrices, that are<br />

generally characterized by many small or zero coefficients and a few large ones<br />

(Harrigan, 1982). Second, column sums <strong>of</strong> intermediate inputs are quite difficult<br />

to obtain without a full input-output table. Third, <strong>the</strong>re is a pr<strong>of</strong>ound difficulty in<br />

assessing accuracy or defining acceptable error (Round, 1983). Finally, regional<br />

input-output tables can serve for aims o<strong>the</strong>r than computing sectoral output multipliers<br />

whose knowledge does not necessarily imply anything about sectoral linkages<br />

(Conway, 1977). Although <strong>the</strong>se approaches initially seemed to be promising,<br />

<strong>the</strong>re was some agreement on feeling that <strong>the</strong>y were unreliable (Miernyk,<br />

1976; Latham and Montgomery, 1979; Phibbs and Holsman, 1981; Jensen and<br />

Hewings, 1985a, 1985b) and <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> deriving multipliers without constructing<br />

a regional I-O table was abandoned.<br />

2.3.4 Ready-made models<br />

Ready-made models are pre-packaged regionalized input-output models that<br />

implement a given non-survey technique (location quotients, supply-demand pool,<br />

regional purchase coefficient approach) for <strong>the</strong> mechanical derivation <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

tables and for <strong>the</strong> calculation <strong>of</strong> linkages, multipliers and <strong>impact</strong>s starting from<br />

national tables. Their development has been favoured by <strong>the</strong> wide diffusion <strong>of</strong><br />

personal computers. At <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 80’s, Brucker et al. (1987), when illustrating<br />

<strong>the</strong> main characteristics <strong>of</strong> some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se models, noted that <strong>the</strong> supply <strong>of</strong><br />

ready-made models was already quite broad and diversified.<br />

ADOTMAR, ISAMIS, INSIGHT, IMPLAN, REMI and RIMS II are among<br />

<strong>the</strong> growing number <strong>of</strong> computer-generated equilibrium models. However, <strong>the</strong><br />

more popular models among state and local governments are IMPLANPro (Lindall<br />

and Olson, 1998) and REMI Policy Insight (Treyz et al., 1992).<br />

IMPLANPro is <strong>the</strong> product <strong>of</strong> a joint modelling effort between <strong>the</strong> University<br />

<strong>of</strong> Minnesota and <strong>the</strong> U.S. Forest Service. The package s<strong>of</strong>tware continues to be<br />

maintained and updated by <strong>the</strong> Minnesota IMPLAN Group, a private firm based<br />

35


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

in Minnesota. IMPLANPro is a simple straightforward Input-Output model which<br />

can use alternatively location quotients, supply-demand pool and regional purchase<br />

coefficients. The results it produces are static in nature. IMPLANPro calculates<br />

<strong>impact</strong>s from a new business location or relocation on a county economy for<br />

one period in time. This model provides data, primarily, on employment, wages<br />

and output.<br />

REMI (Regional Economic Models, Inc.) is an Amherst-based consulting firm<br />

that began developing computer-generated policy decision-making models in <strong>the</strong><br />

1980s. REMI Policy Insight is an economic modelling s<strong>of</strong>tware package that forecasts<br />

<strong>the</strong> economic and demographic effects that an event such as <strong>the</strong> construction<br />

<strong>of</strong> a new facility or a policy initiative may cause on <strong>the</strong> regional economy. REMI<br />

is a unique model. It combines input-output metrics with a statistical econometric<br />

module. The econometric component allows REMI to forecast changes into <strong>the</strong><br />

future. This model also provides a great deal <strong>of</strong> detail on how a proposed change<br />

<strong>impact</strong>s <strong>the</strong> economy. It provides data on changes in employment, income, industry<br />

demand, industry output, gross regional product, household consumption,<br />

population and economic migration.<br />

These models present <strong>the</strong> following advantages:<br />

36<br />

• They are cheap and fast and, for <strong>the</strong>ir use, do not require specific competence<br />

(Brucker et al. 1987);<br />

• They produce reliable results for regional industries that do not largely differ<br />

from <strong>the</strong> national average structure (Jensen, 1987);<br />

• They can <strong>cap</strong>ture <strong>the</strong> regularities within <strong>the</strong> “Fundamental Economic<br />

Structure” (FES) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economic system under <strong>analysis</strong> (Jensen, 1987).<br />

The FES notion refers to that part <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional table that is directly<br />

(mostly linearly) related to total gross output and thus “predictable” in statistical<br />

terms. Jensen et al. (1988), analysing input-output tables for ten<br />

regions <strong>of</strong> Queensland (Australia), came to three main conclusions. First,<br />

this portion <strong>of</strong> table concerns <strong>the</strong> economic relationships between secondary<br />

and tertiary sectors. Second, as we move from smaller regions to larger<br />

regions, <strong>the</strong> FES portion increases. Third, most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> analytically significant<br />

cells <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional table are located on <strong>the</strong> FES portion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> table.<br />

This would lead to state that ready-made models produce reliable results<br />

in measuring <strong>impact</strong> especially for larger regions and when <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>analysis</strong> is concerned with non-primary sectors (agriculture, mining and<br />

some manufacturing activities).


The main disadvantages can be summarized as follows:<br />

Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

• They are based on methods whose reliability and accuracy is suspicious<br />

(Round, 1987).<br />

• They are inadequate in representing regional industries characterized by<br />

specificity and uniqueness (Jensen, 1987).<br />

• They cannot <strong>cap</strong>ture <strong>the</strong> “Non-fundamental Economic Structure” (NFES)<br />

represented by <strong>the</strong> economic relationships among primary sectors and between<br />

<strong>the</strong> latter and <strong>the</strong> FES (Jensen, 1987). If primary sectors are significant<br />

in <strong>the</strong> local economy or have significant linkages with <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

local economy, <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> ready-made models could introduce large unacceptable<br />

errors into <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong>.<br />

Studies aimed at evaluating performances <strong>of</strong> ready-made models are for example<br />

those <strong>of</strong> Brucker and Hastings (1990), Crihfield and Campbell (1991),<br />

Richman and Schwer (1993a, 1995a, 1995b), Rickman (1995).<br />

Brucker and Hastings (1990) evaluated <strong>the</strong> performances <strong>of</strong> five regional inputoutput<br />

ready-made models (RIMS II, ADOTMATR, RSRI, IMPLAN,<br />

SCHAFFER). They estimated <strong>impact</strong>s <strong>of</strong> seven hypo<strong>the</strong>tical regional development<br />

scenarios in terms <strong>of</strong> change in final demand for different regions by using<br />

<strong>the</strong> five models and compared <strong>the</strong> results with those obtained from <strong>the</strong> Texas<br />

semi-survey input-output table for 1979. They found that <strong>the</strong> models provided estimates<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> that were similar to each o<strong>the</strong>r and also to <strong>the</strong> semi-survey<br />

Texas model but only for total output and total income estimates. In fact, employment<br />

estimates were very disparate as were <strong>the</strong> estimates for <strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> on<br />

disaggregated sectors.<br />

Rickman and Schwer (1995a) compared IMPLAN, REMI and RIMS II. They<br />

found that <strong>the</strong> default versions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> models revealed that IMPLAN estimated <strong>the</strong><br />

largest multipliers. All comparisons <strong>of</strong> pairs <strong>of</strong> methods showed significant differences<br />

in terms <strong>of</strong> multipliers. However, a correlation related to employment multipliers<br />

among all methods was found as well as a correlation related to output<br />

multipliers but limited to REMI and RIMS II models. These differences were attributed<br />

to <strong>the</strong> different characteristics <strong>of</strong> models and in particular to <strong>the</strong> specific<br />

closure rules. To work on common benchmark, <strong>the</strong>se differences were smoo<strong>the</strong>d<br />

creating alternative versions <strong>of</strong> models. Then, multipliers were calculated and<br />

compared again. Results showed statistically indistinguishable differences on <strong>the</strong><br />

whole, but more marked differences at <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> single industry. The authors<br />

concluded that models, in a benchmarked version, were very similar to each o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

and differences found by previous studies were mainly due to <strong>the</strong> diverse formulation<br />

<strong>of</strong> models.<br />

37


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

These models are used extensively in regional policy <strong>analysis</strong>. For instance,<br />

IMPLAN was adopted by Bergstrom et al. (1990), Bairak and Hughes (1996),<br />

Hughes and Litz (1996), Tanjuakio et al. (1996), Sills et al. (1996), Raymond and<br />

Lichty (1997, 2002), Hughes (1999), English (2000), Lazarus et al. (2002), Brown<br />

et al. (2002).<br />

REMI was adopted for instance by Treyz et al. (1992), Cassing and Giarratani<br />

(1992), Richman and Schwer (1993b), Gazel and Schwer (1997).<br />

2.4 Interregional and multiregional non-survey methods<br />

In this category, <strong>the</strong>re are included those methods that attempt to estimate interregional<br />

as well as intersectoral flows in order to construct input-output models<br />

for two (interregional or bi-regional) or more regions (multiregional). Round<br />

(1983) notes that this kind <strong>of</strong> models <strong>of</strong>fers more scope for non-survey methods<br />

than does a single region system, in spite <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> apparent sharp increase in <strong>the</strong><br />

number <strong>of</strong> elements that require to be estimated. This is explained arguing that in<br />

a closed system one region’s exports are ano<strong>the</strong>r region’s imports so that <strong>the</strong> interregional<br />

framework contains some inherent accounting constraints which can be<br />

<strong>of</strong> special value in calibrating estimates <strong>of</strong> intraregional as well as interregional<br />

commodity flows.<br />

The full interregional model proposed by Isard (1951) and its closely related<br />

derivatives (multiregional models) have rarely been implemented empirically for<br />

<strong>the</strong> enormous requirement <strong>of</strong> data. For this, techniques reducing need for data<br />

have been introduced. They are: extensions <strong>of</strong> location quotients (Round, 1972,<br />

1978, 1983; Bonfiglio, 2002a); extensions <strong>of</strong> commodity balance methods (Nevin<br />

et al., 1966; Vanwynsberghe, 1976); Chenery-Moses model (or <strong>the</strong> column coefficient<br />

model) (Chenery, 1953; Moses, 1955); Polenske model (or <strong>the</strong> row coefficient<br />

model) (Polenske, 1970); gravity models (Leontief and Strout, 1963, Batten,<br />

1982; Nagy, 1997; Boyce, 1998; Cho et al., 1998; Domingues, 2001; Paradigm<br />

Consulting Group, 2002; Okubo T., 2003).<br />

Polenske (1970) tested <strong>the</strong> Chenery-Moses, <strong>the</strong> row coefficient and <strong>the</strong> Leontief-Strout<br />

models on Japanese data and found that <strong>the</strong> row coefficient model performed<br />

worse than <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r two.<br />

Below, we will briefly illustrate extensions suggested by Round (1972, 1978,<br />

1983) and <strong>the</strong> general principles <strong>of</strong> gravity models.<br />

Round proposed a two-stage estimation method based on SLQ for <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

requirement coefficients. The first stage involves a preliminary estimation <strong>of</strong> intraregional<br />

and interregional flows by means <strong>of</strong> location quotients. Consider two<br />

R<br />

regions R and S . The location quotient approach establishes that if qij ≥ 1,<br />

<strong>the</strong>n<br />

region R is supposed to be self-sufficient and <strong>the</strong> surplus is exported. In <strong>the</strong> case<br />

38


Survey vs. Non-survey Methods<br />

<strong>of</strong> one region, this amount is unknown. However, in a closed system with two re-<br />

R<br />

S<br />

gions, if q ≥ 1,<br />

it results that q < 1.<br />

It means that region S will import goods<br />

ij<br />

and services by an amount <strong>of</strong> ( 1 )<br />

ij<br />

S N<br />

− qij aij.<br />

This quantity is supposed to be imports<br />

from <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r region (imports from abroad are <strong>the</strong>refore excluded) and consequently<br />

exports from region R . Thus, <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> location quotients within an interregional<br />

model allows estimating exports (only interregional) and <strong>of</strong>fers a<br />

higher degree <strong>of</strong> internal consistency than single region applications.<br />

The second stage involves <strong>the</strong> adjustment <strong>of</strong> initial estimates to conform to<br />

known vectors <strong>of</strong> intermediate output. By adopting a two-region framework, any<br />

adjustment in region R must be accommodated by a compensating adjustment in<br />

region S . Therefore, <strong>the</strong> procedure ensures that total flows within <strong>the</strong> system sum<br />

to known values.<br />

A problem associated to this technique is that <strong>the</strong>re is no obvious extension <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> approach based on quotients to multiregional input-output tables involving<br />

three or more regions (Hewings and Janson, 1980).<br />

Of <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r methods that estimate multiregional models, <strong>the</strong> gravity approach<br />

has received more attention in <strong>the</strong> literature. The logic behind this approach is that<br />

interaction between any two zones is proportional to <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> activities in<br />

each zone and inversely proportional to <strong>the</strong> frictions impeding movement between<br />

<strong>the</strong>m (Jin et al., 2003). More specifically, <strong>the</strong> basic idea is that <strong>the</strong> flow <strong>of</strong> good i<br />

from a region R to a region S can be looked upon as a function <strong>of</strong> total output <strong>of</strong><br />

R<br />

S<br />

good i in region R ( X i ), total purchases <strong>of</strong> good i in region S ( P i ) and <strong>the</strong><br />

RS<br />

distance between <strong>the</strong> two regions ( D ). One simple function, taking inspiration<br />

from Newton’s observations on gravity (that gave <strong>the</strong> name to this class <strong>of</strong> models),<br />

to measure <strong>the</strong> flow <strong>of</strong> good i from regions R to region S is <strong>the</strong> following:<br />

( i i )( i i )<br />

( )<br />

z<br />

c X d P<br />

k<br />

X P<br />

D D<br />

where<br />

R R S S R S<br />

RS<br />

i =<br />

RS<br />

ei =<br />

RS<br />

i<br />

i i<br />

RS<br />

ei<br />

R<br />

c i ,<br />

S<br />

d i (alternatively,<br />

( ) ( )<br />

RS<br />

k i ) and e i are parameters to be estimated (in <strong>the</strong><br />

strictest Newtonian form, e i = 2 ) (Miller and Blair, 1985).<br />

39


3 Hybrid Methods<br />

3.1 Introduction<br />

The hybrid approach is currently considered <strong>the</strong> most feasible method to derive<br />

regional I-O tables (Lahr, 2001a; Fritz, 2002). It combines non-survey techniques<br />

for estimating regional direct requirements tables with superior data, which are<br />

obtained from experts, surveys and o<strong>the</strong>r reliable sources (primary or secondary).<br />

It is <strong>the</strong>refore a compromise between <strong>the</strong> survey and non-survey approaches in order<br />

to gain <strong>the</strong> advantages <strong>of</strong> both and to avoid <strong>the</strong> main disadvantages. Therefore,<br />

hybrid methods should be less costly than survey methods and more accurate than<br />

non-survey methods in generating regional I-O tables. Phibbs and Holsman<br />

(1982) estimated that hybrid tables can be produced at about one-tenth <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cost<br />

<strong>of</strong> survey-based tables and in three months instead <strong>of</strong> two years which is <strong>the</strong> usual<br />

time necessary to construct survey-based tables.<br />

A fur<strong>the</strong>r advantage lies in <strong>the</strong> modular separability and thus in a major possibility<br />

<strong>of</strong> revision and updating. This advantage will be enhanced if interregional<br />

trade is represented separately since technical and trade coefficients can be revised<br />

independently <strong>of</strong> one ano<strong>the</strong>r. The separability characterizing hybrid models also<br />

gives analysts <strong>the</strong> opportunity <strong>of</strong> choosing whe<strong>the</strong>r deriving a full regional table<br />

or just a coefficient matrix 7 (Greenstreet, 1989).<br />

7 According to Greenstreet (1989), albeit construction <strong>of</strong> complete accounts allows for consistency checks<br />

and reconciliations, it could be preferable to keep <strong>the</strong> coefficient matrix, if superior data were <strong>of</strong> low quality<br />

and largely differed from estimates coming from non-survey models, and also in consideration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> studies<br />

<strong>of</strong> Jensen et al. (1988) on “fundamental economic structure”, about which large portions <strong>of</strong> a regional table,<br />

involving secondary and tertiary sectors, would seem to resemble national structure.


Hybrid Methods<br />

42<br />

However, some criticisms to this approach have been raised:<br />

(a) A priori information and local knowledge <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economy are relatively<br />

subjective (Imansyah, 2000).<br />

(b) It is not well-established how much information should be inserted and<br />

which parts <strong>of</strong> a table have to be replaced (Imansyah, 2000). In this regard,<br />

Dewhurst (1992) found that probable substantial gains in terms <strong>of</strong> accuracy,<br />

measured by induced income and output multipliers, could be derived<br />

from limited amounts <strong>of</strong> superior information related to more important<br />

transactions (identified measuring effects <strong>of</strong> changes in coefficients on<br />

<strong>the</strong> output multipliers) and that <strong>the</strong>se gains were decreasing as more information<br />

was inserted. However, fewer gains were obtained when superior<br />

data were collected and incorporated for entire sectors 8 . These conclusions<br />

were partly confirmed by Lahr (2001a). Lahr, comparing a “prototype”<br />

<strong>of</strong> hybrid method (see par. 3.2.2.10) to a survey-based table, noted<br />

that as more information related to entire sectors (identified on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong>ir <strong>impact</strong> on multipliers) was inserted, <strong>the</strong>re was not a significant improvement<br />

in <strong>the</strong> table. Moreover, contrary to Dewhurts’ results, he noted<br />

that <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> decreasing marginal returns to accuracy from superior<br />

data was not strictly true. Two studies are not sufficient to give a definitive<br />

response to <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> quantity <strong>of</strong> exogenous information<br />

to be inserted in order to improve accuracy. Never<strong>the</strong>less, both agree with<br />

<strong>the</strong> conclusion that a limited amount <strong>of</strong> information focused on sectors<br />

8 Dewhurst (1992) attempted to test <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> inserting superior information in hybrid models for deriving<br />

accurate regional tables using <strong>the</strong> RAS technique as an instrument for <strong>the</strong> test. He tried to update a survey-based<br />

1973 Scotland I-O table to derive a regional table for 1979 utilizing superior data from a surveybased<br />

1979 Scotland I-O table. For this objective, he made three types <strong>of</strong> experiments: insertion <strong>of</strong> an increasing<br />

number <strong>of</strong> data for single cells, insertion <strong>of</strong> single rows and insertion <strong>of</strong> single columns. From <strong>the</strong> first<br />

experiment (replacing single cells), he found that, for induced income multipliers, <strong>the</strong> error between multipliers<br />

derived from <strong>the</strong> table created by RAS and survey-based multipliers tended to decrease monotonically.<br />

For induced output multipliers, <strong>the</strong> error decreased but in a less marked way. For example, replacing 11% <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> total number <strong>of</strong> cells, <strong>the</strong> error, measured by mean absolute relative difference, diminished by 44% for<br />

income multipliers and by 45% for output multipliers. Replacing 26% <strong>of</strong> all cells, <strong>the</strong> error decreased by 79%<br />

for income effects and by 54% for output effects. Moreover, <strong>the</strong>re appeared to be decreasing returns to additional<br />

superior information. The cells to be replaced step by step were identified by ranking <strong>the</strong> elements <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> 1973 input-output table on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative effects <strong>of</strong> changes in coefficients on <strong>the</strong> output multipliers.<br />

The disadvantage <strong>of</strong> this ranking method is that zero cells, which could become over time regionally<br />

important, are ranked last in terms <strong>of</strong> importance. The second experiment consisted <strong>of</strong> replacing an increasing<br />

number <strong>of</strong> columns instead <strong>of</strong> single cells. This was defined as a more realistic situation in which researchers<br />

usually are. The columns to be replaced were identified ranking column sums <strong>of</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> changes in coefficients<br />

on output multipliers. The replacement <strong>of</strong> entire columns eliminated <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> non-inclusion <strong>of</strong><br />

zero cells. However, <strong>the</strong> results showed that <strong>the</strong> error did not decrease at <strong>the</strong> same rate as that found in <strong>the</strong><br />

case <strong>of</strong> replacing single cells. The third experiment consisted <strong>of</strong> replacing an increasing number <strong>of</strong> rows. The<br />

rows to be replaced were identified ranking rows sums <strong>of</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> changes in coefficients on output multipliers.<br />

In this case, results were more encouraging but <strong>the</strong>y were attributed to <strong>the</strong> change in regional structure<br />

over time.


Hybrid Methods<br />

having <strong>the</strong> highest <strong>impact</strong> on multipliers is sufficient to improve considerably<br />

<strong>the</strong> general level <strong>of</strong> accuracy.<br />

(c) The role <strong>of</strong> non-survey techniques into a hybrid model is <strong>of</strong>ten undervalued<br />

(Lahr, 1993).<br />

(d) There may be a discrepancy between local experts’ opinions and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

secondary data when constructing input-output tables since process <strong>of</strong> data<br />

collection is <strong>of</strong>ten unclear (Jackson et al., 1992).<br />

(e) As Midmore (1991) also underlines, most studies following <strong>the</strong> hybrid approach,<br />

unfortunately, do not have <strong>the</strong> resources to insert any superior data<br />

at all. For this reason, many regional I-O tables that are told to be derived<br />

by a hybrid method are ultimately derived using non-survey methods, raising<br />

problems <strong>of</strong> accuracy and reliability.<br />

Hybrid methods that have been developed starting from <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1970s<br />

can be regrouped into three general categories: <strong>the</strong> “top-down”, <strong>the</strong> “horizontal”<br />

and <strong>the</strong> “bottom-up” approaches.<br />

3.2 Top-down approach<br />

The “top-down” approach is <strong>the</strong> most used and it was proven that it gives reliable<br />

results (West, 1990). The general characteristics <strong>of</strong> this approach were<br />

widely described by Greenstreet (1989) and West (1990).<br />

The construction procedure can be distinguished in a sequence <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

models: source, foundation, prototype and final hybrid models (Fig. 3.1). A source<br />

model is given by a pre-existing table, <strong>of</strong>ten national, and provides <strong>the</strong> initial<br />

broad basis for constructing regional tables. Foundation models are substantially<br />

non-survey or syn<strong>the</strong>tic methods aimed at deriving a crude matrix <strong>of</strong> coefficients.<br />

In this phase, systematic secondary data (such as sectoral employment data) are<br />

utilized. Specific secondary data and preliminary primary data are used to modify<br />

individually some cells or sectors to come to prototype models, expressing a crude<br />

representation <strong>of</strong> a full regional I-O table. Prototype models are already hybrid.<br />

They may or may not be partial-survey. Ultimately, <strong>the</strong> final hybrid model arises<br />

from combining primary survey data and experts’ opinions on local economy with<br />

<strong>the</strong> prototype model.<br />

43


Hybrid Methods<br />

44<br />

Fig. 3.1 – Conceptual framework for hybrid model construction<br />

SOURCE<br />

FOUNDATION<br />

PROTOTYPE<br />

FINAL HYBRID<br />

Source: Greenstreet (1989)<br />

Systematic Secondary Data<br />

Specific Secondary Data<br />

Preliminary Primary Data<br />

Primary Data<br />

Experts’ Comments<br />

The main aim <strong>of</strong> hybrid methods is to maximize <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> available and reliable<br />

data, concentrating resources on <strong>the</strong> most critical and significant regionspecific<br />

elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> table and neglecting <strong>the</strong> less significant ones.<br />

The top-down approach can be subdivided into two fur<strong>the</strong>r categories: institutional<br />

approach (including methods deriving regional tables from industry-based<br />

national accounts) and make and use approach (including methods producing regional<br />

tables from commodity-by-industry-based national I-O accounts).


Hybrid<br />

Top-down<br />

Horizontal<br />

Bottom-up<br />

Fig. 3.2 – Hybrid methods’ scheme<br />

Institutional<br />

Make and Use<br />

Modified RAS<br />

FES-concept-based<br />

Exchanging<br />

One region<br />

Multiregional<br />

Interregional<br />

One region<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

GRIT<br />

Constrained matrix<br />

Import-survey based<br />

Export-survey based<br />

GRITSSIC<br />

TDA<br />

DBC<br />

Lahr's Strategy<br />

GRIT III<br />

Stone-estimator-based<br />

DEBRIOT<br />

Random-utility-based<br />

Madsen et al. (1999)<br />

Eding et al. (1996)<br />

Jackson (1998)<br />

Lahr (2001b)<br />

Fritz et al. (2002)<br />

Original<br />

GRIT II<br />

Aberdeen version<br />

REAPBALK version


Hybrid Methods<br />

3.2.1 Institutional approach<br />

The institutional approach derives regional I-O tables mainly starting from <strong>the</strong><br />

national quadratic interindustry transactions matrix (plus, in some cases, <strong>the</strong> quadrants<br />

related to final demand and primary inputs). This approach is surely <strong>the</strong> most<br />

widespread for a series <strong>of</strong> factors (Jackson, 1998). First, it can be partly explained<br />

by simple inertia considering that industries have been dominant units <strong>of</strong> <strong>analysis</strong><br />

for as long as economies have been studied. Second, it depends on <strong>the</strong> industrybased<br />

statistical reporting systems still employed by many government agencies.<br />

Ano<strong>the</strong>r factor may be <strong>the</strong> relevance and intuitive appeal <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> industry as a<br />

meaningful agent in a regional economy. Moreover, <strong>impact</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> and several I-<br />

O applications (such as key-sector analyses, industrial complex and clustering<br />

<strong>analysis</strong>, analyses <strong>of</strong> regional economic structural change) can be carried out<br />

without <strong>the</strong> need for estimating values outside <strong>the</strong> interindustry quadrant <strong>of</strong> traditional<br />

accounts (final demand and primary inputs). Madsen and Jensen-Butler<br />

(1999) claim that o<strong>the</strong>r reasons explaining <strong>the</strong> wide use <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> institutional approach<br />

are <strong>the</strong> many researchers’ perception <strong>of</strong> greater requirements <strong>of</strong> data associated<br />

to <strong>the</strong> make and use approach and <strong>the</strong> analytical elegance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Leontief<br />

solution.<br />

Within <strong>the</strong> institutional approach, two main classes <strong>of</strong> methods can be identified:<br />

methods oriented to derive one-region I-O tables (one-region approach) and<br />

methods deriving regional tables for more than one region (multiregional approach).<br />

3.2.2 One-region institutional approach<br />

Regional I-O tables are constructed for only one region. Within this approach,<br />

many methods can be included. They are: constrained matrix techniques; exportsurvey<br />

based method; import-survey based method; <strong>the</strong> family <strong>of</strong> GRIT-based<br />

methods; GRITSSIC; TDA; Lahr’s strategy; Distributive Commodity Balance<br />

Method. O<strong>the</strong>r methods have been adopted. However, many <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m are mostly<br />

variants <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> methodologies above categorized (Jackson et al., 1989; Robison,<br />

1997; Harris and Liu, 1998; Hubacek and Sun, 2001; Aroca, 2001; Hughes and<br />

Zaricki, 2001; Secretario et al., 2002).<br />

46


Hybrid Methods<br />

3.2.2.1 Constrained matrix techniques<br />

Constrained matrix techniques are iterative adjustment procedures applied to<br />

reconcile input-output matrices or estimate tables, given row and column totals<br />

and an input-output table that is taken as initial information with respect to <strong>the</strong> internal<br />

structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> required matrix. Within this class <strong>of</strong> methods, we find <strong>the</strong><br />

well-know RAS or bi-proportional method (Stone and Leicester, 1966). O<strong>the</strong>r<br />

techniques are <strong>the</strong> method <strong>of</strong> Langrangian multipliers (Morrison and Thuman,<br />

1980; Van der Ploeg, 1982), linear programming techniques (Matuszewski et al.,<br />

1974; Malte et al., 1987), quadratic programming methods (Harrigan and Buchanan,<br />

1984), iterative procedures (Friedlander, 1961) and more innovative<br />

methods like <strong>the</strong> Backpropagation Neural Network (Papadas and Hutchinson,<br />

2002).<br />

Of <strong>the</strong> constrained matrix techniques, RAS has received more attention in <strong>the</strong><br />

literature. RAS is a procedure that iteratively adjusts both columns and rows <strong>of</strong> a<br />

given matrix until this matrix converges to a new matrix respecting constraints in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> row and column totals. Initially, RAS was proposed to update national<br />

tables. Successively, it was extended to updating and estimation <strong>of</strong> regional tables<br />

from national tables (Czamanski and Malizia, 1969; Morrison and Smith, 1974;<br />

Malizia and Bond, 1974; McMenamin and Haring, 1974; Hewings, 1977; Harrigan<br />

et al., 1980a, Dewhurst, 1992, Junius and Oosterhaven, 2003). Among variants<br />

<strong>of</strong> this technique, it is worth mentioning RAS with exogenous information<br />

(Allen and Lecomber, 1975), ERAS (Extended RAS) method (Israelevich, 1991)<br />

and <strong>the</strong> so-called TRAS (three-stage RAS) proposed by Gilchrist and Louis<br />

(1999).<br />

The RAS technique derives regional technical coefficients as follows:<br />

A r =R An S<br />

where R and S are diagonal matrices <strong>of</strong> multipliers r i and s j used to regionalize<br />

national technical coefficients and obtained in such a way that <strong>the</strong> following conditions<br />

are satisfied:<br />

RAn S1=x s<br />

1RA ′ ′<br />

n S=x p<br />

where s x and ′ x p are respectively <strong>the</strong> column vector <strong>of</strong> intermediate sales and <strong>the</strong><br />

row vector <strong>of</strong> intermediate purchases, while 1 represents <strong>the</strong> unit vector. The economic<br />

interpretation <strong>of</strong> multipliers is well known. Row multipliers would take ac-<br />

47


Hybrid Methods<br />

count <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> substitution effect since a proportional increase or decrease <strong>of</strong> all row<br />

coefficients represents substitution <strong>of</strong> inputs caused by price differences. Instead,<br />

column multipliers would take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> so-called fabrication effect, reported<br />

by Stone and Brown (1962), since <strong>the</strong>y reduce or increase needs for primary inputs<br />

and, <strong>the</strong>refore, value added by modifying uniformly needs for intermediate<br />

goods and services.<br />

Properties and conditions <strong>of</strong> convergence and uniqueness related to <strong>the</strong> RAS<br />

technique have been widely discussed in several studies (see for example<br />

Bacharach, 1970; Costa, 1973; Lecomber, 1975; Filippucci and Gardini, 1978). In<br />

particular, it has been noted that performances <strong>of</strong> RAS depend on <strong>the</strong> plausibility<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> following assumptions:<br />

48<br />

(a) price variations and specific sector composition affect uniformly all sectors<br />

that arrange for substituting inputs proportionally;<br />

(b) <strong>the</strong> regional specificity in terms <strong>of</strong> mix and technology affects uniformly all<br />

sectors that adjust proportionally <strong>the</strong>ir needs for intermediate and primary<br />

inputs;<br />

(c) national coefficients and data on intermediate production do not contain errors<br />

in that <strong>the</strong>se errors tend to be far larger in <strong>the</strong> final matrix owing to <strong>the</strong><br />

iterative procedure.<br />

Since <strong>the</strong>se assumptions are too stringent, RAS should not be applied mechanically<br />

without modifying <strong>the</strong> national matrix. This latter should be first regionalized<br />

by using o<strong>the</strong>r methods so as to take account <strong>of</strong> relative prices, specific sector<br />

composition and technology (Strassoldo, 1988).<br />

The application <strong>of</strong> RAS requires <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> information related to vectors<br />

<strong>of</strong> intermediate sales and purchases. Since this information is not usually provided<br />

at a regional level, <strong>the</strong>se vectors have to be estimated by procedures that<br />

construct vectors <strong>of</strong> regional production, value added and final demand (Strassoldo,<br />

1988). Intermediate purchases and intermediate sales are finally estimated<br />

by subtracting value added from total output and final demand from total output,<br />

respectively. In many cases, <strong>the</strong> difficulty <strong>of</strong> obtaining estimates <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se vectors<br />

or some components <strong>of</strong> final demand, especially inventory changes and exports,<br />

forces to carry out surveys to collect missing data. For this reason, RAS method is<br />

classified as a semi-survey method.


Hybrid Methods<br />

3.2.2.2 Import-survey-based method<br />

Su (1970) proposed a technique emphasising <strong>the</strong> direct estimation <strong>of</strong> imports.<br />

He suggested carrying out a survey <strong>of</strong> regional firms finalized to identify <strong>the</strong> proportion<br />

<strong>of</strong> required inputs which are imported into <strong>the</strong> region. Applying this matrix<br />

<strong>of</strong> import proportions to <strong>the</strong> national technical coefficient matrix, it is possible<br />

to derive <strong>the</strong> matrix <strong>of</strong> regional import coefficients and, by difference, <strong>the</strong> matrix<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional input coefficients.<br />

3.2.2.3 Export-survey-based method<br />

The export-survey method was suggested by Schaffer (1972). It firstly requires<br />

a survey aimed at collecting information from firms in <strong>the</strong> region about <strong>the</strong> value<br />

<strong>of</strong> sales for a given year and <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> sales going to out-<strong>of</strong>-region purchasers<br />

(exports).<br />

Then a supply-demand pool approach is applied by using an adjusted commodity<br />

balance:<br />

<br />

b = X −E −D<br />

( )<br />

R R R<br />

i i i i<br />

R<br />

R<br />

R<br />

where i is a sector, X is total regional production, D is local demand, E are<br />

regional exports estimated by survey and b expresses commodity balance.<br />

This approach is motivated by <strong>the</strong> consideration that regional trade represents a<br />

substantial part <strong>of</strong> a regional I-O table due to <strong>the</strong> greater openness <strong>of</strong> regions.<br />

Since estimated exports tend to vary considerably from survey-based exports, <strong>the</strong><br />

correction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se discrepancies might lead to better estimates <strong>of</strong> regional transactions<br />

(Schaffer, 1999). This technique was used, for example, to derive an I-O<br />

table for <strong>the</strong> Italian Liguria region (Amato, 1978).<br />

3.2.2.4 The family <strong>of</strong> GRIT-based methods<br />

Methods based on <strong>the</strong> GRIT methodology are: <strong>the</strong> original version <strong>of</strong> GRIT,<br />

GRIT II, <strong>the</strong> Aberdeen version and <strong>the</strong> REAPBALK version. In <strong>the</strong> following<br />

sub-paragraphs, <strong>the</strong>se methods will be described in more detail.<br />

49


Hybrid Methods<br />

3.2.2.4.1 The original version<br />

The GRIT (Generating Regional Input-Output Tables) methodology was developed<br />

by Jensen et al. (1979) to derive regional input-output tables and multipliers<br />

for <strong>the</strong> regions and State <strong>of</strong> Queensland in Australia. This methodology has<br />

been widely used in <strong>the</strong> Australian context. However, <strong>the</strong> original version has not<br />

been largely successful outside <strong>the</strong> Australian continent. Recent work based on<br />

this methodology in its standard version is that <strong>of</strong> Psaltopoulos and Efstratoglou<br />

(2000) who have built a 1988 I-O table for <strong>the</strong> Greek rural region <strong>of</strong> Evrytania<br />

and that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Centre for Agricultural Strategy (Reading University UK) (2000),<br />

commissioned by <strong>the</strong> European Commission to study employment and <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong><br />

dependency on fishing in <strong>the</strong> European Union.<br />

GRIT is a system producing variable-interference non-survey based tables. It<br />

relies on a series <strong>of</strong> mechanical steps to derive regional coefficients from a national<br />

matrix, but provides <strong>the</strong> possibility at different stages for <strong>the</strong> insertion <strong>of</strong><br />

superior data, which analysts consider to be more reliable than those obtained by<br />

mechanical processes. So, <strong>the</strong> system is defined as variable-interference in that <strong>the</strong><br />

analyst interferes with <strong>the</strong> mechanically produced tables by inserting exogenous<br />

information. Estimates that should be replaced with superior data are those related<br />

to larger coefficients in <strong>the</strong> technical coefficient matrix. These cells are considered<br />

analytically important for <strong>the</strong>ir bigger <strong>impact</strong> produced on multipliers. Instead, <strong>the</strong><br />

smaller coefficients are assumed to have a low <strong>impact</strong> on multipliers; <strong>the</strong>refore,<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir method <strong>of</strong> calculation can be considered unimportant. This would allow <strong>the</strong><br />

calculation <strong>of</strong> tables to <strong>the</strong> degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy definable as “free from significant<br />

error”. To confirm <strong>the</strong> different <strong>impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> coefficients, Jensen and West (1980)<br />

carried out some experiments to verify that which happens when smaller coefficients<br />

are removed from <strong>the</strong> technical coefficient matrix. They found that, estimating<br />

output, income and employment multipliers in 14 input-output models,<br />

when 45 percent <strong>of</strong> small coefficients were removed, multipliers only decreased<br />

on average by a one percent, while when 70 percent were removed, reduction was<br />

by 5 percent.<br />

The objective <strong>of</strong> GRIT is to derive a regional table that has to be accurate in a<br />

holistic sense and not in a partitive sense (Jensen, 1980). The partitive accuracy is<br />

reached when each cell <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> table is as close as possible to <strong>the</strong> “true” amount <strong>of</strong><br />

intersectoral transactions. In this sense, <strong>the</strong> table is viewed <strong>of</strong> a set <strong>of</strong> regional accounts.<br />

Conversely, <strong>the</strong> holistic accuracy is guaranteed when <strong>the</strong> regional table is<br />

a faithful representation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> overall regional economic structure in analytical<br />

and descriptive terms. A method to measure this level <strong>of</strong> accuracy consists <strong>of</strong> analysing<br />

<strong>the</strong> forecasting <strong>cap</strong>abilities <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional I-O model. A difference <strong>of</strong> 5-<br />

10% between forecasted and known values <strong>of</strong> output at both sectoral and overall<br />

level could be <strong>the</strong> limit over which <strong>the</strong> holistic accuracy is no more preserved.<br />

50


Hybrid Methods<br />

The system is composed <strong>of</strong> 15 steps which are arranged into 5 phases. However,<br />

it has been studied for allowing analyst <strong>the</strong> maximum flexibility. In effect,<br />

much freedom is given to analyst in choosing a different combination <strong>of</strong> procedural<br />

components or in replacing a module with one preferred by <strong>the</strong> analyst.<br />

Phase I: Adjustments to National I-O table<br />

The objective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> phase I is <strong>the</strong> derivation <strong>of</strong> an appropriate technology matrix<br />

from which regional coefficients will be estimated.<br />

Step 1: Selection <strong>of</strong> a national I-O table. The national table should be as disaggregated<br />

as practically possible. Jensen et al. (1979), when developing GRIT,<br />

chose a 109-sector table in basic values 9 with direct allocation <strong>of</strong> imports 10 and<br />

net <strong>of</strong> intrasectoral transactions. They expressed preference for a national matrix<br />

with flows evaluated in purchasers’ prices, but this solution was impracticable because<br />

it would have requested <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> a regional matrix <strong>of</strong> marketing<br />

and distribution costs to correct <strong>the</strong> national matrix. Non-competitive and competitive<br />

imports 11 were aggregated since <strong>the</strong>re would have been a problem in distinguishing<br />

<strong>the</strong>se imports at a regional level. All imports were directly allocated<br />

into <strong>the</strong> national table. Lastly, <strong>the</strong> national table was taken net <strong>of</strong> intrasectoral<br />

flows to avoid overestimating regional coefficients since intrasectoral transactions<br />

contain interregional trade. However, o<strong>the</strong>r formats could be adopted considering<br />

objectives and availability <strong>of</strong> data.<br />

Step 2: Adjustments for updating. Whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> national table is considered too<br />

old for economic events, this may be adjusted or updated to take account <strong>of</strong><br />

changes in relative prices, <strong>of</strong> changes in industry structure or also <strong>of</strong> appearance<br />

(or disappearance) <strong>of</strong> new industries.<br />

Step 3: Adjustments for international trade. This step derives a technology matrix<br />

that expresses <strong>the</strong> technical requirements for commodity i per unit <strong>of</strong> output<br />

j , regardless <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> geographical source <strong>of</strong> supply. This matrix is estimated by allocating<br />

imports over those sectors which could supply imported commodities if<br />

<strong>the</strong> latter ones were produced locally.<br />

9 Basic values are producers’ prices net <strong>of</strong> commodity taxes. Transactions presented in basic values are net <strong>of</strong><br />

commodity taxes; <strong>the</strong>se are shown in a separate row and paid by <strong>the</strong> purchaser <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> commodities on which<br />

<strong>the</strong> taxes are levied.<br />

10 Imports are allocated directly when <strong>the</strong>y are recorded in <strong>the</strong> column <strong>of</strong> purchasing sector. Imports are allocated<br />

indirectly when <strong>the</strong>y are recorded in <strong>the</strong> column <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sector which would have produced <strong>the</strong>m within<br />

<strong>the</strong> region and distributed within <strong>the</strong> row <strong>of</strong> that sector.<br />

11 Non-competitive imports are those for which no suitable substitute is produced locally. Competitive imports<br />

are those which are close substitute for locally produced commodities and are normally recorded as an<br />

addition to <strong>the</strong> local value <strong>of</strong> output.<br />

51


Hybrid Methods<br />

52<br />

Phase II: Adjustment for Regional Imports<br />

This phase derives, from national technical coefficients, both regional input coefficients<br />

and regional import coefficients.<br />

Step 4: Calculation <strong>of</strong> non-competitive imports. If national sectors do no exist<br />

at a regional level, <strong>the</strong> corresponding rows <strong>of</strong> coefficients are removed from <strong>the</strong><br />

table and allocated to <strong>the</strong> regional import row. The existence <strong>of</strong> a sector at <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

level can be verified using employment data supplemented by local knowledge.<br />

Step 5: Calculation <strong>of</strong> competitive imports. Regional input coefficients and regional<br />

(competitive) import coefficients are estimated by using SLQ, given its<br />

presumed superiority demonstrated by empirical studies in comparison with o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

non-survey methods. The import coefficients are allocated to <strong>the</strong> import row.<br />

Phase III: Definition <strong>of</strong> Regional Sectors<br />

Phase III contemplates sector aggregation and insertion <strong>of</strong> superior data at different<br />

levels <strong>of</strong> aggregation.<br />

Step 6: Insertion <strong>of</strong> disaggregated superior data. Superior data available at a<br />

disaggregated level are inserted prior to aggregation.<br />

Step 7: Aggregation <strong>of</strong> sectors. Sector aggregation is made to represent, more<br />

faithfully, <strong>the</strong> regional economy, which is usually simpler than <strong>the</strong> national one.<br />

Jensen et al. (1979) adjusted regional input and import coefficients using employment-based<br />

weights before proceeding to aggregation.<br />

Step 8: Insertion <strong>of</strong> aggregated superior data. Fur<strong>the</strong>r superior data available at<br />

a more aggregated level can be inserted at this stage.<br />

Phase IV: Derivation <strong>of</strong> Prototype Transactions Table<br />

In this phase, regional coefficients are converted into transactions and estimates<br />

<strong>of</strong> final demand and primary inputs are derived.<br />

Step 9: Derivation <strong>of</strong> initial transactions table. Coefficients in each column are<br />

multiplied by estimates <strong>of</strong> gross regional output to derive first estimates <strong>of</strong> transactions.<br />

Step 10: Adjustments to prototype table. Final demand and primary inputs<br />

quadrants are added to complete first estimated table. Three components <strong>of</strong> final<br />

demand are considered: household consumption, exports and o<strong>the</strong>r final demands.<br />

The first two components are frequently used in <strong>the</strong> regional <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>the</strong>refore<br />

<strong>the</strong>y should be kept separately while <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r components can be aggregated into<br />

one category. Two different approaches to <strong>the</strong> estimation <strong>of</strong> final demand can be<br />

adopted depending on available information. First, final demand can be estimated


Hybrid Methods<br />

as a residual if no relevant information is available. Second, reliable estimates <strong>of</strong><br />

final demand can be incorporated into <strong>the</strong> table. The latter procedure would<br />

probably produce an inconsistent table where column and row totals <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

sectors are not equal. For ensuring consistency, adjustments can be made<br />

manually or using some iterative constrained matrix techniques like RAS technique.<br />

The residual-based procedure calculates final demand by subtracting intermediate<br />

sales from regional output (Fig. 3.3). Final demand components can be<br />

estimated by using allocators taken from national or o<strong>the</strong>r regional tables and <strong>the</strong>n<br />

constrained to <strong>the</strong> previously calculated value <strong>of</strong> final demand. If no allocator is<br />

available or considered reliable for one component (for example exports), this latter<br />

can be estimated as a residual by subtracting <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r two components<br />

from total final demand. It can occur that final demand is negative for a<br />

given sector (regional output is less than intermediate sales). In this case, final<br />

demand components should be estimated by using allocators and in order to reconcile<br />

<strong>the</strong> row and column totals, <strong>the</strong> difference between regional output and <strong>the</strong><br />

sum <strong>of</strong> final demand components should be removed proportionally from <strong>the</strong> row<br />

<strong>of</strong> intermediate sales and allocated to <strong>the</strong> import row 12 .<br />

As for primary inputs, two categories are identified: imports, already estimated<br />

in previous steps, and value added. It is assumed that superior data about value<br />

added are available.<br />

Step 11: Aggregation if uniform tables are required. If more than one regional<br />

table is constructed and <strong>the</strong> objective is to produce uniform tables, regional tables<br />

are aggregated to <strong>the</strong> same level <strong>of</strong> sector detail.<br />

Step 12: Derivation <strong>of</strong> inverse and multipliers for prototype table. This step derives<br />

from <strong>the</strong> prototype table <strong>the</strong> Leontief inverse and related output, income and<br />

employment multipliers.<br />

Phase V: Derivation <strong>of</strong> Final Transactions Table<br />

In this phase, analyst has to use fur<strong>the</strong>r reliable data and expert’s advice to produce<br />

as an accurate regional table as possible in at least a holistic sense. This<br />

means that <strong>the</strong> final table should be a faithful representation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> general economic<br />

structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region so as to provide a robust basis for analytical applications.<br />

Step 13: Final superior data insertions and o<strong>the</strong>r adjustments. Reliable data related<br />

to transactions, final demand and primary inputs have to be inserted in this<br />

step.<br />

12<br />

In GRIT, <strong>the</strong> possibility that <strong>the</strong> difference between total output and final demand is negative is not mentioned.<br />

53


Hybrid Methods<br />

Step 14: Derivation <strong>of</strong> final transactions table. Lastly, <strong>the</strong> table is adjusted for<br />

ensuring consistency and <strong>the</strong> resulting table represents <strong>the</strong> final transactions table.<br />

Step 15: Calculation <strong>of</strong> inverse and multipliers for final table. This step derives,<br />

from <strong>the</strong> final table, <strong>the</strong> Leontief inverse and related output, income and<br />

employment multipliers.<br />

54<br />

Fig. 3.3 – Final demand residual-based adjustment – GRIT methodology<br />

FALSE<br />

Calculation <strong>of</strong> final demands<br />

using national allocators<br />

Constraining final demands to<br />

total FD<br />

FD=X-IS<br />

FD ≤ 0<br />

Note: FD – Final Demand; IS – Intermediate Sales; X – Total Output<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

TRUE<br />

Calculation <strong>of</strong> final demands<br />

using national allocators<br />

Re-calculation <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

sales: IS(1)=X-FD<br />

Attribution <strong>of</strong> differences<br />

IS(1)-IS(0) to import vector


Tab. 3.1 – The GRIT Methodological Sequence<br />

Phase Step Description<br />

I. Adjustments to National I-O table 1 Selection <strong>of</strong> a national I-O table<br />

2 Adjustment for updating<br />

3 Adjustment for international trade<br />

II. Adjustment for regional imports 4 Calculation <strong>of</strong> non-competitive imports<br />

5 Calculation <strong>of</strong> competitive imports<br />

III. Definition <strong>of</strong> Regional Sectors 6 Insertion <strong>of</strong> disaggregated superior data<br />

7 Aggregation <strong>of</strong> sectors<br />

8 Insertion <strong>of</strong> aggregated superior data<br />

Hybrid Methods<br />

IV. Derivation <strong>of</strong> Prototype transactions table 9 Derivation <strong>of</strong> initial transactions table<br />

10 Manual or iterative adjustments to derive prototype table<br />

11 Aggregation if uniform tables are required<br />

12 Derivation <strong>of</strong> inverse and multipliers for prototype table<br />

V. Derivation <strong>of</strong> final transactions table 13 Final superior data insertions and o<strong>the</strong>r adjustments<br />

14 Derivation <strong>of</strong> final transactions table<br />

15 Calculation <strong>of</strong> inverse and multipliers for final table<br />

Source: Jensen et al. (1979)<br />

3.2.2.4.2 GRIT II<br />

West (1980) proposes a modified version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GRIT methodology that is<br />

named GRIT II. The main differences between <strong>the</strong> old and <strong>the</strong> new methodology<br />

are related to: (a) <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> non-survey method; (b) <strong>the</strong> aggregation<br />

scheme; (c) superior data; (d) stability <strong>analysis</strong>.<br />

As for <strong>the</strong> non-survey method to be adopted in <strong>the</strong> phase II – step 5, West uses<br />

a modified version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SLQ (WLQ) (see par. 2.3.2.1) to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

consumption and demand pattern differences between nation and region. The<br />

WLQ requires <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> data related to employment, output and consumption.<br />

If data on consumption are lacking, West suggests using a simpler version<br />

<strong>of</strong> WLQ, that is: WLQi = SLQi( θ θi)<br />

. If data on output are also unavailable,<br />

<strong>the</strong> WLQ becomes <strong>the</strong> SLQ.<br />

As for <strong>the</strong> aggregation scheme, output weighting is adopted instead <strong>of</strong> that<br />

based on employment. According to West, output weighting would produce more<br />

reliable transactions figures and would eliminate <strong>the</strong> balancing problem that<br />

emerges if employment is used. However, <strong>the</strong>re would not be differences between<br />

<strong>the</strong> two aggregation schemes if <strong>the</strong> labour-output ratios were identical for all sectors.<br />

With regard to <strong>the</strong> collection and insertion <strong>of</strong> superior data (steps 6, 8 and 13),<br />

for identifying critical cells for which more data research effort is necessary, a<br />

<strong>sensitivity</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> is effected (West, 1981). This <strong>analysis</strong> attempts to rank coefficients<br />

on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir relative importance by evaluating <strong>the</strong> effects that<br />

changes in each individual coefficient produce on <strong>the</strong> multipliers values. The co-<br />

55


Hybrid Methods<br />

efficients that significantly affect multipliers are those for which superior data<br />

should be collected.<br />

In step 15, a stability <strong>analysis</strong> is also introduced. This kind <strong>of</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> is aimed<br />

at verifying <strong>the</strong> stability <strong>of</strong> multipliers to minor individual cell variations. Fixed<br />

and random shocks <strong>of</strong> various size and types are generated simultaneously in all<br />

<strong>the</strong> coefficients and <strong>the</strong> new multipliers compared to <strong>the</strong> originals. If differences<br />

are not large, <strong>the</strong> regional table can be considered acceptable.<br />

3.2.2.4.3 The Aberdeen version<br />

Johns and Leat (1987) proposed a modified version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GRIT methodology.<br />

Three main modifications can be identified:<br />

56<br />

• A new step, between steps 1 and 2 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> original GRIT, is inserted: <strong>the</strong><br />

national table is aggregated when <strong>the</strong> level <strong>of</strong> sector detail <strong>of</strong> employment<br />

data (necessary for applying <strong>the</strong> location quotient approach) is lower than<br />

that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national table.<br />

• The CILQ is used instead <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SLQ owing to stronger <strong>the</strong>oretical foundations<br />

related to <strong>the</strong> CILQ;<br />

• Components <strong>of</strong> final demand are not estimated using national or o<strong>the</strong>r allocators<br />

but using employment ratios, SLQ and residual-based techniques.<br />

More specifically, household consumption is estimated by a two stage<br />

process. First, national household consumption is multiplied by <strong>the</strong> ratio<br />

between regional and national employment. Then, if a sector has an importance<br />

that, at regional level, is lower than that at national level (SLQ is less<br />

than one), <strong>the</strong> initial estimate is reduced by multiplying it by <strong>the</strong> SLQ.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r final demands (excluding exports) are estimated applying employment<br />

ratios to <strong>the</strong> corresponding national components. Lastly, exports are<br />

obtained as a residual subtracting from regional output, <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

output, regional household consumption and o<strong>the</strong>r final demand.<br />

In GRIT, exports are estimated by difference only if no allocator is available<br />

o considered reliable.<br />

Johns and Leat applied this modified version <strong>of</strong> GRIT to derive a regional table<br />

for Grampian Region in North-East Scotland. They found that multipliers obtained<br />

using <strong>the</strong>ir version incorporating <strong>the</strong> SLQ were higher than those derived<br />

using <strong>the</strong>ir modified version incorporating <strong>the</strong> CILQ. They concluded that <strong>the</strong> use<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> CILQ was to be preferred. However, it would seem that <strong>the</strong>y did not use<br />

any superior data for <strong>the</strong> derivation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional table. Therefore, even if, in<br />

general, <strong>the</strong> SLQ tends to overstate multipliers more than CILQ, <strong>the</strong> insertion <strong>of</strong>


Hybrid Methods<br />

superior data could attenuate this tendency and reduce differences existing between<br />

<strong>the</strong> two methods 13 .<br />

Versions <strong>of</strong> GRIT incorporating CILQ have been also applied for instance by<br />

Psaltopoulos and Thomson (1993) to construct <strong>the</strong> 1989 64-sector I-O table for<br />

<strong>the</strong> whole “rural” Scotland area; by Doyle et al. (1997) to derive <strong>the</strong> 1989 inputoutput<br />

table for <strong>the</strong> Scotland region <strong>of</strong> Dumfries and Galloway; by Mattas et al.<br />

(1999) to construct input-output tables for <strong>the</strong> Greek regions <strong>of</strong> Macedonia and<br />

Thrace; by Tzouvelekas and Mattas (1999) to construct a 1988 I-O table for <strong>the</strong><br />

Greek island <strong>of</strong> Crete; by Ciobanu et al. (2002) to construct 1980 and 1997 inputoutput<br />

tables for <strong>the</strong> Greek regions <strong>of</strong> East Macedonia and Thrace.<br />

3.2.2.4.4 The REAPBALK version<br />

REAPBALK is an acronym <strong>of</strong> a European research project, entitled “Rural<br />

Employment and Agricultural Perspective in <strong>the</strong> Balkan Applicant Countries” 14 .<br />

Within this project, a procedure for deriving regional table, which is fundamentally<br />

based on GRIT, was developed (Bonfiglio, 2002b, 2002c; Mattas et al.,<br />

2003). By this procedure, 5 regional I-O tables were created: <strong>the</strong> 1998 table for<br />

Thessalia (Greece), <strong>the</strong> 2000 table for “peripheral” Slovenia, <strong>the</strong> 1997 table for<br />

<strong>the</strong> North East region (Bulgaria), <strong>the</strong> 1999 table for <strong>the</strong> North West region (Romania),<br />

<strong>the</strong> 1997 table for <strong>the</strong> county <strong>of</strong> Bielovar-Bilogora (Croatia). The system<br />

differs from GRIT for <strong>the</strong> following aspects:<br />

(1) Selection <strong>of</strong> a national I-O table. The national table to be selected should<br />

satisfy <strong>the</strong> following requisites: (a) symmetric; (b) expressed in current prices; (c)<br />

with total flows (domestic plus import flows) expressed in basic values; (d) constructed<br />

using <strong>the</strong> industry-based technology assumption. Two points deserve to<br />

be discussed. First <strong>of</strong> all, <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> a national table with total flows does not<br />

go against <strong>the</strong> principles <strong>of</strong> GRIT. On <strong>the</strong> contrary, one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GRIT’s characteristics<br />

is to calculate regional coefficients starting from a national technology matrix<br />

regardless <strong>the</strong> origin <strong>of</strong> products. Since an import matrix was not available for<br />

Australia, Jensen and his colleagues decided to insert <strong>the</strong> step related to <strong>the</strong> adjustment<br />

for international trade, allocating proportionally all national imports to<br />

sectors that could have produced those commodity locally. This step was aimed at<br />

deriving a national technology matrix. However, if an import matrix is available,<br />

<strong>the</strong>re is no reason why a national table with total flows cannot be employed.<br />

13 This hypo<strong>the</strong>sis will be verified in <strong>the</strong> fifth chapter.<br />

14 This project began in October 2001 and will last for <strong>the</strong> next three years. The project is financed by EU<br />

Fifth Framework Research Programme: “Quality <strong>of</strong> Life and Management <strong>of</strong> Living Resources”, Key Action<br />

1.1.1.-5.5: “New tools and models for <strong>the</strong> integrated development <strong>of</strong> rural and o<strong>the</strong>r relevant areas”. It is coordinated<br />

by <strong>the</strong> University <strong>of</strong> Ancona (Italy) and involves a fur<strong>the</strong>r six countries: Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece,<br />

Romania, Slovenia and <strong>the</strong> United Kingdom. The project focuses on <strong>the</strong> development perspectives <strong>of</strong> rural<br />

regions <strong>of</strong> five countries <strong>of</strong> Balkan area: Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania and Slovenia. Four <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> case<br />

study countries are applying for accession to <strong>the</strong> EU, while Greece is already a Member-State.<br />

57


Hybrid Methods<br />

Secondly, <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> industry-based technology assumption was conditioned<br />

by <strong>the</strong> core <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> project in which this regionalization procedure was developed.<br />

Since <strong>the</strong> objective was that to study rural regions and considering that<br />

studies oriented to agriculture tend to use <strong>the</strong> industry technology assumption as it<br />

is more applicable to farm systems (Midmore and Harrison-Mayfield, 1996), this<br />

choice was judged plausible.<br />

(2) National sector aggregation. The national sector aggregation step is inserted<br />

between <strong>the</strong> steps 1 and 2 <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> original GRIT.<br />

(3) Treatment <strong>of</strong> non-existing sectors at regional level. The step 4 <strong>of</strong> GRIT<br />

(calculation <strong>of</strong> non-competitive imports) establishes that if national sectors do no<br />

exist at regional level, <strong>the</strong> corresponding rows <strong>of</strong> coefficients have to be removed<br />

from <strong>the</strong> table and allocated to <strong>the</strong> regional import row. In <strong>the</strong> REAPBALK’s version,<br />

following suggestions from Mattas et al. (1984), also <strong>the</strong> corresponding columns<br />

<strong>of</strong> coefficients are removed and, in this case, allocated to <strong>the</strong> regional export<br />

column. The step 4 can be thus renamed as: calculation <strong>of</strong> non-competitive imports<br />

and exports.<br />

(4) Derivation <strong>of</strong> regional coefficients. Regional input and import coefficients<br />

are estimated using <strong>the</strong> FLQ-based method. The parameter δ , without which FLQ<br />

cannot be applied, should be estimated on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative importance <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> economic activity in <strong>the</strong> region. Practically, <strong>the</strong> parameter is fixed at a value<br />

that makes final demand positive.<br />

(5) Estimation <strong>of</strong> regional output and final demands components. Regional<br />

output is estimated using employment ratios and SLQ. Like in GRIT, final demand<br />

is first estimated as a residual. The use <strong>of</strong> FLQ, choosing accurately <strong>the</strong><br />

value <strong>of</strong> its parameter, guarantees that final demand, obtained by difference, is<br />

always positive. Regional household consumption and exports are estimated like<br />

output while o<strong>the</strong>r final demands are calculated as a residual by subtracting <strong>the</strong><br />

sum <strong>of</strong> exports and consumption from regional final demand.<br />

(6) Disaggregation and estimation <strong>of</strong> primary inputs. Three components <strong>of</strong><br />

primary inputs are considered: household income, imports and o<strong>the</strong>r final payments.<br />

Elements <strong>of</strong> value added different from household income are thus included<br />

into <strong>the</strong> “o<strong>the</strong>r final payments” category. If superior data for household income<br />

are not available, <strong>the</strong>se are estimated by employment ratios and SLQ. O<strong>the</strong>r<br />

final payments are estimated as a residual subtracting <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

purchases, imports and household income from total output.<br />

Unfortunately, nei<strong>the</strong>r superior data nor expert’s opinions were available for all<br />

regions under study. Accordingly, all regional tables were derived mechanically<br />

and this hybrid method was reduced to being a non-survey method.<br />

58


Hybrid Methods<br />

3.2.2.5 GRITSSIC<br />

Phibbs and Holsman (1982) proposed a hybrid input-output technique named<br />

GRITSSIC (Generalized Regional Input-Output Tables with Survey-based Sums<br />

<strong>of</strong> Intermediate Coefficients). This method derives regional Input-Output tables<br />

by adjusting a rough approximation <strong>of</strong> regionalized tables on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> survey<br />

data just related to <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate inputs for each sector. This technique<br />

was developed starting from <strong>the</strong> ascertainment that in many cases reliable I-O<br />

multipliers can be generated with <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> intermediate coefficients alone.<br />

To validate <strong>the</strong> goodness <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> methodology, first, a survey-based table was<br />

compared with several randomly-generated-coefficient matrices imposing that <strong>the</strong><br />

column sums <strong>of</strong> intermediate coefficients had to equal those <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> survey-based<br />

table. It was found that, when <strong>the</strong> maximum deviation allowed between <strong>the</strong> “true”<br />

direct coefficients and simulated coefficients was 100%, <strong>the</strong> maximum error for<br />

output multipliers was about 16%, while for type I income multipliers, <strong>the</strong> maximum<br />

error was unacceptable (91%). However, acceptable errors for most sectors<br />

were obtained when deviations were set to 50%. Phibbs and Holsman concluded<br />

that <strong>the</strong> GRITSSIC could be a valid alternative to both survey and non-survey<br />

methods.<br />

Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong>y tested <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis that multipliers for any one sector are<br />

largely independent <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> direct coefficient entries for <strong>the</strong> remaining sectors. Towards<br />

this aim, <strong>the</strong>y again compared several randomly-generated-coefficient matrices<br />

with <strong>the</strong> survey-based table imposing that <strong>the</strong> column sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

coefficients related to a given sector had to equal that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> survey-based table.<br />

They found that <strong>the</strong> lower level <strong>of</strong> accuracy for <strong>the</strong> non-interest sectors had only a<br />

minimal <strong>impact</strong> on <strong>the</strong> accuracy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> multiplier estimates. According to <strong>the</strong> authors,<br />

this experiment showed that it is not necessary to obtain survey-based sums<br />

<strong>of</strong> intermediate coefficients for all sectors but only for <strong>the</strong> sectors <strong>of</strong> special interest<br />

to <strong>the</strong> analyst.<br />

Lastly, <strong>the</strong> performances <strong>of</strong> this method were compared with those <strong>of</strong> GRIT.<br />

First <strong>of</strong> all, a regional table was derived by using GRIT. Then, GRITSSIC was<br />

applied collecting and inserting superior data related to <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate<br />

coefficients into <strong>the</strong> regional table obtained by GRIT. The results were clearly in<br />

favour <strong>of</strong> GRITSSIC. In fact, multipliers obtained by this procedure were much<br />

closer to those derived from a survey-based table than multipliers obtained by<br />

GRIT. They concluded that GRITSSIC outperformed GRIT. However, <strong>the</strong> comparison<br />

between <strong>the</strong> two methodologies cannot be considered valid. This is because,<br />

although Jensen’s methodology is strongly based on <strong>the</strong> use and insertion<br />

<strong>of</strong> superior data, <strong>the</strong>y considered GRIT as a non-survey method, simply based on<br />

<strong>the</strong> application <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simple location quotient. Therefore, <strong>the</strong> comparison was, in<br />

substance, between GRITSSIC and <strong>the</strong> simple location quotient, ra<strong>the</strong>r than between<br />

GRITSSIC and GRIT.<br />

59


Hybrid Methods<br />

Never<strong>the</strong>less, <strong>the</strong> results obtained by using GRITSSIC were encouraging in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> both accuracy and costs. As for accuracy, for output multipliers, <strong>the</strong><br />

maximum difference was under 11%, for income multipliers, it was under 10%,<br />

whereas for employment multipliers it was under 13%. In <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> “GRIT” or<br />

ra<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> simple location quotient, <strong>the</strong> differences were 69%, 171% and 192%,<br />

respectively.<br />

3.2.2.6 TDA<br />

TDA is <strong>the</strong> acronym for <strong>the</strong> “Table Disaggregation and Adjustment” technique<br />

proposed by Jackson and Comer (1993) and explored successively by Comer and<br />

Jackson (1997). It is composed <strong>of</strong> two main steps:<br />

60<br />

1. Derivation <strong>of</strong> a regional aggregated table from a national aggregated table<br />

using <strong>the</strong> regionalization method proposed by Jackson et al. (1989);<br />

2. Disaggregation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional aggregated table using an old national (or,<br />

preferably, regional) highly disaggregated table. Formally, considering<br />

that each cell in an aggregated table corresponds to a block <strong>of</strong> cells in <strong>the</strong><br />

disaggregated table, <strong>the</strong> ij − th cell <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> aggregated table is disaggregated<br />

in <strong>the</strong> following way:<br />

ij<br />

1Zrs ij<br />

1Z ij<br />

0Zrs k z<br />

ij<br />

0Zrs<br />

r= 1 s=<br />

1<br />

= ⋅ ∑∑ r = 1, …, k; s = 1, … , z<br />

where <strong>the</strong> subscripts 0 and 1 refer to <strong>the</strong> old disaggregated table and <strong>the</strong><br />

recent aggregated table, respectively; k is <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> sub-sectors<br />

within <strong>the</strong> aggregated sector i while z is <strong>the</strong> number <strong>of</strong> sub-sectors within<br />

<strong>the</strong> aggregated sector j , which are present in old disaggregated table;<br />

ij<br />

<strong>the</strong>refore, 1Z<br />

represents <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cell ij in <strong>the</strong> aggregated table,<br />

ij<br />

0 Zrs is <strong>the</strong> cell rs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> old disaggregated table within <strong>the</strong> block <strong>of</strong> cells<br />

k× z,<br />

which corresponds to <strong>the</strong> cell ij <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> aggregated table and, lastly,<br />

Z is <strong>the</strong> cell rs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> disaggregated version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> recent table.<br />

1<br />

ij<br />

rs<br />

This method is based on <strong>the</strong> consideration that high levels <strong>of</strong> bias and error can<br />

result from using an aggregated table for regionalization and that greater levels <strong>of</strong><br />

disaggregation in <strong>the</strong> regionalization process improve table accuracy. Comer and<br />

Jackson (1997) attempted to test <strong>the</strong> performances <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> TDA method. Three<br />

types <strong>of</strong> tables were developed for five U.S. regions. First, <strong>the</strong>y derived a regional<br />

disaggregated table from a 1982 disaggregated U.S. table using <strong>the</strong> regionalization


Hybrid Methods<br />

method mentioned above. They calculated output vector using a 1977 national<br />

vector <strong>of</strong> final demand and <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong>y aggregated <strong>the</strong> output vector. The regional<br />

table was considered <strong>the</strong> “true” table and <strong>the</strong> relevant output vector was considered<br />

a comparison base. Second, <strong>the</strong>y derived a regional aggregated table from a<br />

1982 aggregated U.S. table. The relevant output vector was calculated using an<br />

aggregated vector <strong>of</strong> final demand. Third, <strong>the</strong>y derived a regional disaggregated<br />

table by TDA, disaggregating <strong>the</strong> regional aggregated table on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

structure <strong>of</strong> a 1977 disaggregated U.S. table. They calculated <strong>the</strong> output vector<br />

that was after aggregated. Using several statistics, output vectors <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> latter two<br />

tables were compared to <strong>the</strong> output vector <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> first table that was considered<br />

“true”. Results showed that <strong>the</strong> TDA method reduced <strong>the</strong> error in terms <strong>of</strong> predicted<br />

output deriving from using aggregated data. However, it has to be noted<br />

that <strong>the</strong> test was based on a regionalized table and not on a survey-based regional<br />

table. Therefore, results cannot be considered conclusive.<br />

3.2.2.7 Lahr’s strategy<br />

Lahr (1993, 2001a) has proposed a procedure to derive hybrid regional I-O tables<br />

which is partially based on <strong>the</strong> GRIT II methodology. The differences are<br />

substantial and can be summarized as follows:<br />

• <strong>the</strong> location quotient approach is rejected in favour <strong>of</strong> a regionalization<br />

scheme that allows for cross-hauling;<br />

• sector aggregation is avoided;<br />

• a different and a more specified approach to recognize critical portions <strong>of</strong><br />

input-output tables ripe for superior data is adopted;<br />

• <strong>the</strong> procedure only focuses on <strong>the</strong> regional transactions matrix.<br />

Below, single steps <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> procedure will be illustrated in more detail.<br />

Step 1: Preparation <strong>of</strong> Initial Nonsurvey Regional Direct Requirements. This<br />

step comprises <strong>the</strong> first two phases <strong>of</strong> GRIT II: selection <strong>of</strong> a national I-O table,<br />

adjustments for updating and international trade, adjustment for regional imports.<br />

The main difference lies in <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regionalization method. The modified<br />

location quotient approach suggested by West (1980) is rejected in favour <strong>of</strong><br />

a regionalization scheme that allows for cross-hauling, although it is not very<br />

clear what method should be applied. Moreover, to avoid aggregation bias, regional<br />

sector aggregation is skipped and a regional prototype table is thus produced.<br />

61


Hybrid Methods<br />

Step 2: Identifying Sectors for Superior-data Collection. Sectors to which top<br />

consideration should be given automatically for superior data collection are:<br />

household-labour sector, resource production sectors (i.e. agriculture, forestry,<br />

fishing and mining) and any aggregate sectors such as those denoted as “miscellaneous”<br />

or “not elsewhere classified” or o<strong>the</strong>rs which are severely aggregated.<br />

These sectors are considered critical in representing correctly a regional economy<br />

for a series <strong>of</strong> reasons. As for household-labour sector, some studies (such as:<br />

Stevens and Trainer, 1976; Garhart and Giarratani, 1987) have ascertained <strong>the</strong><br />

importance <strong>of</strong> this sector especially in models closed with respect to households 15 .<br />

As far as resource production sectors are concerned, because <strong>of</strong> particular soil,<br />

climate and geologic conditions that characterize a given region, <strong>the</strong>se sectors<br />

have technology that is likely to be very different from <strong>the</strong> national average technology.<br />

Lastly, <strong>the</strong> sectors that are highly aggregated have wide variance in <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

technology not because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir specific location but because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> wide mix <strong>of</strong><br />

establishments that <strong>the</strong>y embrace.<br />

Moreover, fur<strong>the</strong>r superior data are collected for sectors that make <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

table more sensitive to changes in trade. Different from GRIT II, <strong>the</strong> aim is not to<br />

identify single cells to be replaced with exogenous information, but entire sectors.<br />

For this objective, a combined-coefficient <strong>sensitivity</strong> concept <strong>of</strong> West (1982) is<br />

adopted.<br />

First, a more practical variant <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Evan’s (1954) formula is calculated:<br />

62<br />

( )<br />

-1<br />

E= ⎡ I-BP -I⎤B ⎣ ⎦<br />

where B is <strong>the</strong> Leontief inverse, I is an identity matrix and P is <strong>the</strong> matrix <strong>of</strong><br />

perturbations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> direct-requirements matrix. Therefore, E represents <strong>the</strong> matrix<br />

<strong>of</strong> errors produced in a Leontief inverse by a perturbation in a directrequirements<br />

matrix (change in regional trade). To calculate <strong>the</strong> effect that a percentage<br />

change in a sector’s information has on <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> economy, all cells<br />

<strong>of</strong> P should be zeroed except for <strong>the</strong> column and row <strong>of</strong> sectors for which <strong>sensitivity</strong><br />

to imports has to be tested. By letting P = ⎡<br />

⎣ pijaij ⎤<br />

⎦ (where a ij are <strong>the</strong> elements<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> direct-requirements matrix), <strong>the</strong> values <strong>of</strong> nonzero p ij are set to proportions<br />

that represent likely deviations <strong>of</strong> each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sector’s direct-requirement<br />

coefficient from its true value. Since <strong>the</strong> comparison <strong>of</strong> E matrices for each sec-<br />

15 First, <strong>the</strong> local labour income coefficient generally is <strong>the</strong> largest coefficient for any given column. Second, labour<br />

income is largely used to buy goods from non-manufacturing sectors, which tend to purchase large proportions<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir demands (including labour services) locally. This means that household sector produces a nonnegligible<br />

multiplier effect in any given model.


Hybrid Methods<br />

tor would be complicated, each sector’s error matrix is <strong>the</strong>n translated into a scalar<br />

by this formula:<br />

E ′ i =1EX i<br />

where i represents <strong>the</strong> sector, E is <strong>the</strong> scalar, E is <strong>the</strong> error matrix, ′<br />

1 is a transposed<br />

unit vector, X is <strong>the</strong> vector <strong>of</strong> regional sector output (or o<strong>the</strong>r economic<br />

weights such as final demand, earnings, employment, value added).<br />

By this scalar, sectors are ranked and those with higher <strong>sensitivity</strong> are chosen<br />

as targets for inserting superior data. Since rankings <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se sectors are altered<br />

with any coefficient correction, <strong>the</strong> process <strong>of</strong> identifying sectors is performed recursively<br />

after <strong>the</strong> model has been enhanced by each sector’s survey data. The<br />

criticism that could be raised to this approach is that critical sectors, for which fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />

data should be collected, are identified by using a prototype table derived by<br />

non-survey methods. However, Lahr demonstrated that non-survey tables can be a<br />

good basis from which to identify critical sectors. Towards this aim, he used <strong>the</strong><br />

survey-based 1972 Washington State Input-Output table to compare sector rankings<br />

obtained using <strong>the</strong> error measure with those obtained using <strong>the</strong> total linkage<br />

difference (Meller and Marfan, 1981) between <strong>the</strong> non-survey and survey-based<br />

models. He found that rankings were very similar and <strong>the</strong>refore he concluded that<br />

non-survey models might be used to identify critical sectors.<br />

Step 3: Identifying Individual Cells for Data Collection. In order to keep datacollection<br />

costs relatively low, for all sector defined as being critical, information<br />

should be collected only about proportions <strong>of</strong> intermediate inputs and outputs,<br />

proportions <strong>of</strong> intrasectoral flows (since <strong>the</strong>y would tend to be <strong>the</strong> largest cells in<br />

indirect requirements matrices <strong>of</strong> high order) and total regional outputs. Moreover,<br />

apart from intrasectoral cells, not all cells <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> selected sectors should be<br />

surveyed. For targeting cells for superior data, West’s (1981) single-coefficient<br />

change estimates, weighted using value added, are applied.<br />

Step 4: Insertion <strong>of</strong> Superior Data. The data for cells identified in step 3 are inserted<br />

into <strong>the</strong> region’s technology table.<br />

Step 5: Biproportional Regionalization. The RAS technique is employed to<br />

reconcile flows. It is known that convergence is achieved when estimated margin<br />

totals are within a “reasonable” measure <strong>of</strong> tolerance. In <strong>the</strong> Lahr’s procedure,<br />

<strong>the</strong>se tolerances are set to measures <strong>of</strong> relative reliabilities <strong>of</strong> data. If data are survey-based,<br />

tolerance is set to 1 unit (i.e. 1 million dollars <strong>of</strong> shipments) for intermediate<br />

inputs and outputs; if data are non-survey-based and sectors are manufacturing,<br />

tolerance is set to 100% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> initial estimate for intermediate inputs and<br />

to 30% for intermediate outputs (this is because <strong>the</strong> used regional purchase coefficients<br />

were supposed to be more accurate in <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> manufacturing sectors);<br />

lastly, if data are non-survey-based and sectors are not manufacturing, <strong>the</strong> toler-<br />

63


Hybrid Methods<br />

ance is set to 100% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> initial estimate for both intermediate inputs and intermediate<br />

outputs.<br />

The steps from 2 to 5 are iteratively applied until funds for superior data collection<br />

are depleted or <strong>the</strong> difference between <strong>the</strong> survey and non-survey results appears<br />

to be very small.<br />

As already mentioned in <strong>the</strong> paragraph 3.1, Lahr tested this procedure comparing<br />

<strong>the</strong> survey-based 1972 Washington State Input-Output table with <strong>the</strong> table<br />

produced using this hybrid method. He repeated <strong>the</strong> procedure recursively through<br />

13 “surveyed” sectors <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 52 sectors. He found that hypo<strong>the</strong>ses that each additional<br />

sector “surveyed” reduces error and <strong>the</strong>re are decreasing marginal returns to<br />

accuracy from superior data were not strictly true. However, he noted that error<br />

did not tend to increase as more sectors were “surveyed” and <strong>the</strong>re were general<br />

improvements in <strong>the</strong> various components <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> tables as <strong>the</strong> process proceeded.<br />

3.2.2.8 Distributive commodity balance method<br />

The “distributive commodity balance” method (DCB) was introduced by Johnson<br />

(2001) who employed it to derive a 1994-95 table for <strong>the</strong> Kimberley region <strong>of</strong><br />

Western Australia. The DCB method is an iterative approach to <strong>the</strong> development<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional input-output tables. It is an eight-step process which allows <strong>the</strong> incorporation<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional data. Its main peculiarities are:<br />

64<br />

• <strong>the</strong> derivation <strong>of</strong> three kinds <strong>of</strong> tables prior to <strong>the</strong> calculation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> final<br />

table: supply table, demand table, minimum table;<br />

• <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> a regionalization method that allows for cross-hauling;<br />

• a significant interference in <strong>the</strong> mechanical process from <strong>the</strong> analyst in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> local knowledge and judgement.<br />

Below, single stages <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> procedure will be illustrated in more detail.<br />

Stage 1: Select and adjust <strong>the</strong> base table. In this step, a highly disaggregated<br />

national table is first selected and <strong>the</strong>n adjusted. Adjustments are mainly related to<br />

sector disaggregation.<br />

Stage 2: Derive <strong>the</strong> preliminary regional supply and demand tables. The aim<br />

<strong>of</strong> this stage is to derive a preliminary estimate <strong>of</strong> regional demand and supply.<br />

CILQs are applied to scale <strong>the</strong> rows and columns <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national table obtaining<br />

<strong>the</strong> first estimate <strong>of</strong> regional supply (regional supply table) and demand (regional<br />

demand table) respectively. The values in <strong>the</strong>se separate tables represent what <strong>the</strong><br />

industries would like to supply and demand if <strong>the</strong>y were able to follow <strong>the</strong> national<br />

sales and consumption patterns. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, elements <strong>of</strong> each row in <strong>the</strong><br />

supply table represent hypo<strong>the</strong>tical supply to sectors, while those in <strong>the</strong> demand<br />

table represent hypo<strong>the</strong>tical demand.


Hybrid Methods<br />

Stage 3: Add regional specific data. Regional data are added to <strong>the</strong> estimates<br />

obtained in <strong>the</strong> previous step to derive <strong>the</strong> “augmented” regional supply and demand<br />

tables.<br />

Stage 4: Determine excess supply and demand. The two tables are compared<br />

element by element to determine excess supply and demand. For all sectors, all<br />

instances <strong>of</strong> excess supply in a given row (industry) have to be summed to give<br />

total excess supply, as well as all values <strong>of</strong> excess demand in a given row have to<br />

be summed to derive total excess demand. Moreover, a “minimum” table is created.<br />

This table is based on <strong>the</strong> assumption that trade can only occur at <strong>the</strong> minimum<br />

values for each element <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> supply and demand tables. These two tables<br />

are compared element by element and <strong>the</strong> lower value is put into <strong>the</strong> “minimum”<br />

table.<br />

Stage 5: Redistribute excess supply. The analyst has to decide how much <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

total excess supply is made available to satisfy <strong>the</strong> total excess demand. In this<br />

step, local knowledge and judgement are crucial. The “available” excess supply is<br />

distributed to those industries with excess demand for that industry’s output. Any<br />

remaining excess supply forms additional exports and unsatisfied demand represents<br />

additional imports. In so doing, cross-hauling is taken into consideration,<br />

since both exports and imports can be generated for a given industry.<br />

Stage 6: Derive <strong>the</strong> preliminary regional input-output table. The redistributed<br />

amounts are added to <strong>the</strong> minimum table to determine a preliminary table.<br />

Stage 7: Adjust industry shares. If some sectors are known to be “local” industries<br />

but significant trade is predicted in <strong>the</strong> stage 5 calculations, CILQs have to be<br />

adjusted until trade is eliminated.<br />

Stage 8: Apply <strong>the</strong> RAS method to determine <strong>the</strong> final table. The addition <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

data in stage 3 could have produced inconsistencies or imbalances. Therefore,<br />

<strong>the</strong> RAS technique is applied to balance <strong>the</strong> table and to obtain <strong>the</strong> final regional<br />

table.<br />

3.2.3 Multiregional institutional approach<br />

Within <strong>the</strong> multiregional approach, methods attempting to estimate regional tables<br />

for two or more regions are included. In next sub-paragraphs, we will describe<br />

<strong>the</strong> following procedures: GRIT III and DEBRIOT. Fur<strong>the</strong>r methods are,<br />

for instance, techniques based on <strong>the</strong> estimator proposed by Stone et al. (1942)<br />

and random-utility-based models. The Stone-estimator-based technique, which is<br />

a constrained matrix technique for balancing, requires information on reliability <strong>of</strong><br />

first estimates <strong>of</strong> flows in terms <strong>of</strong> origin and quality <strong>of</strong> data. It was applied to derive<br />

a 1998 multiregional I-O model for Italy (Paniccià and Casini Benvenuti,<br />

2002). Random-utility-based models are models <strong>of</strong> new generation joining spatial<br />

I-O <strong>the</strong>ories with principles <strong>of</strong> random utility. They estimate internal trade flows<br />

65


Hybrid Methods<br />

and external trade flows by a function <strong>of</strong> disutility <strong>of</strong> acquiring some commodity<br />

from a given origin zone and consuming it in <strong>the</strong> destination (or export) zone. Parameters<br />

<strong>of</strong> this function are estimated by nested logit models <strong>of</strong> input origin and<br />

shipping-mode choice by zone and sector using commodity flow survey data (Jin<br />

et al., 2003).<br />

3.2.3.1 GRIT III<br />

GRIT III is an extension <strong>of</strong> GRIT II methodology, finalized to derive interregional<br />

input-output tables (West et al., 1984). This system is based on a set <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

input-output tables constructed by GRIT or GRIT II. The export vector <strong>of</strong><br />

each regional table is decomposed to derive <strong>the</strong> matrix <strong>of</strong> interregional exports.<br />

The matrix <strong>of</strong> interregional imports is just derived indirectly. This is justified with<br />

<strong>the</strong> major availability <strong>of</strong> superior data related to exports. GRIT III has been used<br />

to derive an interregional input-output model for <strong>the</strong> State <strong>of</strong> Queensland (Australia)<br />

including ten regions. The system is made up <strong>of</strong> four phases and twelve steps.<br />

In <strong>the</strong> Phase I, <strong>the</strong> regional tables are selected and, in case, adjusted to ensure<br />

accounting conformity.<br />

Phase II is concerned with <strong>the</strong> identification <strong>of</strong> those cells that are expected to<br />

contribute significantly to <strong>the</strong> interregional multipliers. For <strong>the</strong>se cells, superior<br />

data should be collected and inserted.<br />

Phase III is aimed at estimating those cells for which superior data are not<br />

available and which are <strong>the</strong> less significant cells <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> table. First, cells that<br />

should be set to zero are identified. The first source <strong>of</strong> zeros is related to sectors<br />

for which exports are null in <strong>the</strong> regional table. The second source results from<br />

those flows that are presumed to be exports to households in o<strong>the</strong>r regions (i.e.<br />

community services sector). These flows are entered as zeros in <strong>the</strong> interregional<br />

matrices and entered as household consumption for <strong>the</strong> exporting sector and region.<br />

A third source <strong>of</strong> zeros are exports whose amount is <strong>of</strong> no possible consequence<br />

in an analytical sense (less than about 1% <strong>of</strong> regional exports). The relevant<br />

row cells are set to zero and <strong>the</strong> amount <strong>of</strong> exports is allocated to those cells<br />

which are considered to be <strong>the</strong> most appropriate (i.e. household consumption column<br />

or exports outside <strong>the</strong> interregional economy). In <strong>the</strong> successive step, nonzero<br />

cells are estimated allocating regional trade estimates by using <strong>the</strong> Leontief-<br />

Strout model.<br />

The last phase concerns <strong>the</strong> preparation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> final version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> interregional<br />

table. Towards this aim, <strong>the</strong> regional trade balance and general consistency <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

table are ensured. A <strong>sensitivity</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> is carried out to verify if high levels <strong>of</strong><br />

accuracy have been observed for critical coefficients in multiplier formation. Finally,<br />

inverses and multipliers for <strong>the</strong> interregional table are calculated.<br />

66


Tab. 3.2 – The GRIT III Methodological Sequence<br />

Hybrid Methods<br />

Phase Step Description<br />

I. Selection and adjustment <strong>of</strong> regional tables 1 Determination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> interregional set<br />

2 Adjustment for accounting uniformity<br />

II. Identification <strong>of</strong> significant trade flows 3 Identification <strong>of</strong> significant regional trade components<br />

4 Identification <strong>of</strong> significant interregional trade components<br />

5 Insertion <strong>of</strong> superior data<br />

III. Estimation <strong>of</strong> remaining trade flows 6 Identification <strong>of</strong> zero cells<br />

7 Allocation methods<br />

8 Preparation <strong>of</strong> preliminary interregional table<br />

IV. Derivation <strong>of</strong> final tables and multipliers 9 Ensuring <strong>the</strong> regional trade balance<br />

10 Consistency checks<br />

11 Analysis <strong>of</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> and coefficient significance<br />

12 Derivation <strong>of</strong> inverses and multipliers for final transactions<br />

table<br />

Source: West et al. (1984)<br />

3.2.3.2 DEBRIOT<br />

DEBRIOT is an acronym identifying a double-entry method for <strong>the</strong> construction<br />

<strong>of</strong> bi-regional input-output tables (Boomsma and Oosterhaven, 1992; Oosterhaven<br />

et al., 2003) where <strong>the</strong> two regions are, on one hand, <strong>the</strong> region under study<br />

and, on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country. This method has been widely used<br />

during <strong>the</strong> 1980s in <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands for <strong>the</strong> derivation <strong>of</strong> interregional and regional<br />

input-output tables. One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> main features is that it is based on a survey<br />

for collecting interregional export data and some interregional import data. The<br />

second main feature is that, by means <strong>of</strong> two different non-survey methods, it derives<br />

two separate tables (domestic sales and domestic use tables) as a basis for<br />

deriving <strong>the</strong> final transactions matrix. The method to derive <strong>the</strong> domestic sales table<br />

is labelled as RSC (intra-Regional Sales Coefficients).<br />

DEBRIOT is made up <strong>of</strong> six phases and twenty steps which will be below illustrated<br />

in more detail.<br />

Phase I. Adaptation <strong>of</strong> Given Data.<br />

In this phase, a national highly disaggregated table (both for domestic and for<br />

competitive foreign inputs) is selected. Moreover, total data for each sector <strong>of</strong> region<br />

r have to be collected (value added, total intermediate use, foreign imports,<br />

foreign exports, total production and household consumption). Since data for <strong>the</strong><br />

region r and data for <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country (region s ) do not always add to <strong>the</strong><br />

corresponding national total, a confrontation <strong>of</strong> any regional and national data is<br />

made to reach consistency (step 1). Missing regional data are estimated by secondary<br />

data (step 2).<br />

67


Hybrid Methods<br />

68<br />

Phase II. Limited Regional Trade Survey.<br />

In this phase, a survey is carried out to collect interregional export data as well<br />

as some interregional import data. Regional sectoral totals and <strong>the</strong> Leontief inverse<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national input-output table are used to identify sectors and <strong>the</strong> potentially<br />

inverse-important cells for which data should be collected. Wholesale sector<br />

is automatically considered a sector to be surveyed (step 3). Per each interest sector,<br />

firms are selected. They are all dominant companies and a random selection<br />

from <strong>the</strong> smaller companies (step 4). In step 5, sampled firms are requested to<br />

give information at least about: (a) total production; (b) total exports to <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> country and total foreign exports; (c) exports to specific sectors in <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> country (major cells); (d) imports from specific sectors in <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country<br />

(major cells) and from foreign countries. If <strong>the</strong> ultimate destination <strong>of</strong> sales is<br />

unknown: (e) sales through <strong>the</strong> wholesale sector in <strong>the</strong> region and (f) sales<br />

through wholesale in <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country (in this case sales are distributed spatially<br />

according to <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> demand).<br />

The survey also involves <strong>the</strong> wholesale sector so as to cover all output that is<br />

sold through this sector. In this case, collected information serves to allocate <strong>the</strong><br />

gross trade margin <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional wholesale sector, <strong>the</strong> sales <strong>of</strong> firms that sold<br />

through wholesale sector and <strong>the</strong> sales <strong>of</strong> non-surveyed firms (mainly smaller) to<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir region <strong>of</strong> destination.<br />

If firms are unwilling to give information, to supplement <strong>the</strong> information from<br />

<strong>the</strong> survey, expert opinions are called upon.<br />

Finally, individual firms’ coefficients are weighted on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> total production.<br />

As for experts’ coefficients, weights are guesstimated reflecting <strong>the</strong> analysts’<br />

own judgements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative importance and reliability <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> information concerned.<br />

Phase III. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Regional Domestic Use Table.<br />

This phase is finalised to derive a regional domestic use table and regional foreign<br />

imports by means <strong>of</strong> adjustments <strong>of</strong> national table. The total use <strong>of</strong> products<br />

(both domestically produced and imported from abroad) from sector i by sector<br />

j in region r is estimated as follows:<br />

r r ( x j v j)<br />

( x j −<br />

v j)<br />

−<br />

⋅r ⋅n ij = ij ⋅ n n<br />

z z


where n and r indicate <strong>the</strong> nation and <strong>the</strong> region, respectively. ( x j v j)<br />

Hybrid Methods<br />

− are total<br />

intermediate uses <strong>of</strong> sector j in region r calculated as difference between total<br />

n n<br />

production and value added; ( x j − v j)<br />

are total intermediate uses <strong>of</strong> national sector<br />

j . Therefore regional intermediate costs are estimated adjusting proportionally<br />

national columns by means <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> ratio <strong>of</strong> total intermediate uses (step 6).<br />

The estimates <strong>of</strong> intermediate uses are <strong>the</strong>n compared to regional data related<br />

to <strong>the</strong> most specific sector to identify eventual discrepancies (step 7). However, in<br />

<strong>the</strong> event that remarkable differences are found, how to proceed is not mentioned.<br />

In step 8, missing data about regional household consumption and data related<br />

to o<strong>the</strong>r categories <strong>of</strong> final demand (i.e. investments) per sector are estimated by<br />

using information from budget surveys.<br />

In step 9, regional foreign imports are estimated using <strong>the</strong> share <strong>of</strong> national imports<br />

on total intermediate uses. Foreign imports from sector i by sector j are defined<br />

as:<br />

m<br />

m z<br />

r<br />

ij<br />

n<br />

ij<br />

= ⋅n<br />

zij<br />

⋅r<br />

ij<br />

The availability <strong>of</strong> estimates related to foreign imports and total uses allows deriving<br />

a preliminary version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> domestic use or purchase table. Domestic uses<br />

<strong>of</strong> products from sector i by sector j are calculated by difference, i.e.:<br />

z = z − m<br />

nr ⋅r<br />

r<br />

ij ij ij<br />

If <strong>the</strong> share <strong>of</strong> national imports on total intermediate uses differs from <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

share estimated on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> data emerging from <strong>the</strong> trade survey, reconciliation<br />

is needed (step 10).<br />

Phase IV. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Regional Domestic Sales Table.<br />

This phase is aimed at constructing a regional domestic sales table. First, <strong>of</strong>ficial<br />

regional domestic export coefficients are compared to those emerging from<br />

<strong>the</strong> trade survey. If survey-based coefficients are considered to be sufficiently<br />

“hard”, <strong>the</strong> <strong>of</strong>ficial ones are preferred; o<strong>the</strong>rwise if no significant differences exist,<br />

survey-based coefficients are used (step 11).<br />

69


Hybrid Methods<br />

The regional domestic export coefficient for region r and sector i , expressing<br />

<strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> total domestic output <strong>of</strong> sector i that is sold to <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

country s , is calculated as:<br />

70<br />

( ⋅ ⋅ ) ( )<br />

t = z + y x − e<br />

where<br />

rs rs rs r r<br />

i i i i i<br />

rs<br />

zi⋅ are total intermediate sales <strong>of</strong> sector i sold by region r to region s ,<br />

rs<br />

yi⋅ are total sales from region r to final demand sectors <strong>of</strong> region s ,<br />

r<br />

xi is total<br />

r<br />

production <strong>of</strong> sector i in region r and ei are exports <strong>of</strong> sector i in region r outside<br />

<strong>the</strong> country.<br />

In step 12, regional domestic sales coefficients are estimated (RSC’s method).<br />

These are calculated as <strong>the</strong> weighted average <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> demand structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> country and <strong>the</strong> demand structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region. The regional domestic sales<br />

coefficient for sector i related to sales to sector j is defined as follows:<br />

z z<br />

s t t<br />

ns nr<br />

rn<br />

ij =<br />

rs<br />

i ⋅<br />

ij<br />

ns ns<br />

zi⋅ + yi⋅ + −<br />

rs<br />

i ⋅<br />

ij<br />

nr nr<br />

zi⋅ + yi⋅<br />

( )<br />

( 1 )<br />

( )<br />

nr<br />

ns<br />

where zij are domestic purchases <strong>of</strong> commodity i from sector j in region r , z ij<br />

are domestic purchases <strong>of</strong> commodity i from sector j in region s (<strong>the</strong>y are esti-<br />

nr<br />

mated subtracting domestic uses <strong>of</strong> region r , z ij , from national domestic uses,<br />

nn ns<br />

nr<br />

z ij ), yi⋅ are final uses <strong>of</strong> domestically produced commodity i in region s , yi⋅ are final uses <strong>of</strong> domestically produced commodity i in region r .<br />

In step 13, <strong>the</strong> RSC’s method is adopted. By multiplying domestic output by<br />

domestic sales coefficients, a preliminary domestic sales table is created. Formally,<br />

regional domestic sales <strong>of</strong> sector i to sector j in region r is derived as<br />

follows:<br />

( )<br />

z = s x − e<br />

rn rn r r<br />

ij ij i i<br />

Phase V. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Intra-Regional Transactions Table.<br />

This phase is aimed at deriving <strong>the</strong> intraregional transactions table. After constructing<br />

two separate tables, one for domestic sales, <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r one for domestic<br />

uses, two different estimates <strong>of</strong> each cell are available. In step 14, intraregional


Hybrid Methods<br />

transactions are estimated choosing <strong>the</strong> minimum between domestic sales and<br />

domestic purchases, i.e.:<br />

( )<br />

z = min z , z<br />

rr nr rn<br />

ij ij ij<br />

whereas domestic exports and imports are estimated respectively as:<br />

z = z − z ; z = z − z<br />

rs rn rr sr nr rr<br />

ij ij ij ij ij ij<br />

These estimated trade flows are compared to data from <strong>the</strong> survey and eventual<br />

inconsistencies have to be resolved.<br />

In step 15, corrections to previous estimates are made. If cell-specific export<br />

rs<br />

coefficients are available from <strong>the</strong> trade survey ( t ij ), <strong>the</strong>se coefficients are applied<br />

to <strong>the</strong> domestic sales table and domestic exports are recalculated as follows:<br />

rs rs rn<br />

z (spec) = t z .<br />

ij ij ij<br />

This allows obtaining cell-specific intra-regional transactions:<br />

z = z − z<br />

rr rn rs<br />

ij ij ij<br />

(spec)<br />

The remaining intraregional cells, for which cell-specific export coefficients are<br />

unavailable, are reduced proportionally by a factor r<br />

hi until <strong>the</strong> interregional exports<br />

reach a level consistent with <strong>the</strong> trade survey’s overall domestic export coefficient<br />

( t ), i.e.:<br />

rs<br />

i<br />

r +<br />

rn rr rs rs r r<br />

= ( − ) ∀{ hi ∈Ζ } / ∑ ( zij − zij ) + yij = ti ( xi −ei<br />

)<br />

z (non-s) 1 h z<br />

rr r rr<br />

ij i ij<br />

The interregional exports are obtained endogenously by adding <strong>the</strong> subtracted part<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> equation above to interregional exports previously estimated:<br />

( non-s)<br />

z = z + h z<br />

rs rs r rr<br />

ij ij i ij<br />

In step 16, domestic imports are first derived as follows:<br />

z = z −<br />

z<br />

sr nr rr<br />

ij ij ij<br />

j<br />

71


Hybrid Methods<br />

Afterwards, domestic imports coefficients are calculated by dividing domestic<br />

imports by domestic purchases:<br />

72<br />

c<br />

z<br />

sr<br />

sr ij<br />

ij = nr<br />

zij<br />

These coefficients are <strong>the</strong>n compared to survey data and analysts’ judgment to<br />

reconcile eventual differences.<br />

In step 17, this final reconciliation toge<strong>the</strong>r with <strong>the</strong> earlier ones in steps 10 and<br />

14 may require <strong>the</strong> collection <strong>of</strong> additional data before <strong>the</strong> preliminary intraregional<br />

transactions table can be made final.<br />

Phase VI. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Bi-Regional Input-Output Table.<br />

In this phase, <strong>the</strong> bi-regional table is completed by estimating intraregional<br />

transactions for <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country (steps from 18 to 20). Domestic uses <strong>of</strong><br />

product from sector i by sector j in region s are obtained by difference as follows:<br />

z = z −z −z − z<br />

ss nn rr rs sr<br />

ij ij ij ij ij<br />

3.2.4 Make and Use approach<br />

In this approach, <strong>the</strong> derivation <strong>of</strong> regional input-output tables does not focus<br />

on <strong>the</strong> quadratic national input-output table but on <strong>the</strong> three matrices underlying<br />

that table: <strong>the</strong> make table (industry-by-product), providing information on what<br />

type <strong>of</strong> commodities are produced by <strong>the</strong> different sectors in <strong>the</strong> economy; <strong>the</strong> intermediate<br />

use table (product-by-industry), accounting for <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> (domestically<br />

produced or imported) commodities in <strong>the</strong> production process <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se sectors;<br />

and <strong>the</strong> final use table, containing <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> all commodities delivered to different<br />

final demand categories (Fritz et al., 2002). An exhaustive explanation <strong>of</strong> this<br />

approach and related models can be found in Oosterhaven (1984), Mattas et al.<br />

(1984), Miller and Blair (1985).<br />

The Make and Use approach has received less attention in <strong>the</strong> literature for <strong>the</strong><br />

reasons that explain <strong>the</strong> major diffusion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> institutional approach. However, in<br />

<strong>the</strong> recent years, this tendency has been changing (Madsen and Jensen-Butler,<br />

1999). Jackson (1998) argues that commodity-by-industry accounts systems<br />

should be preferred.


Tab. 3.3 – The DEBRIOT Methodological Sequence<br />

Hybrid Methods<br />

Phase Step Description<br />

I. Adaptation <strong>of</strong> Given Data 1 Confrontation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national input-output table with regional<br />

(sectoral) totals<br />

2 Estimation <strong>of</strong> lacking regional (household consumption)<br />

totals<br />

II. Limited Regional Trade Survey 3 Identification <strong>of</strong> relatively and absolutely large regional<br />

sectors and sectoral peculiarities<br />

4 Selection <strong>of</strong> firms per sector and determination <strong>of</strong> questions<br />

to be asked per sector<br />

5 Survey <strong>of</strong> firms and sector specialists and weighing <strong>of</strong><br />

III. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Regional Domestic<br />

Use Table<br />

IV. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Regional Domestic<br />

Sales Table<br />

V. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Intra-Regional Transactions<br />

Table<br />

VI. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Bi-Regional Input-<br />

Output Table<br />

<strong>the</strong> regional trade data<br />

6 Application <strong>of</strong> national technology coefficients to regional<br />

total use<br />

7 Confrontation with available regional technology data<br />

8 Estimation <strong>of</strong> missing (household consumption and private<br />

and public investments) “technology” data<br />

9 Application <strong>of</strong> national foreign import coefficients per<br />

cell<br />

10 Confrontation with regional foreign import data from <strong>the</strong><br />

trade survey<br />

11 Confrontation <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>ficial regional foreign export data with<br />

foreign export coefficients from <strong>the</strong> trade survey<br />

12 Determination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional domestic sales coefficients<br />

13 Application <strong>of</strong> regional domestic sales coefficients to<br />

regional total domestic sales<br />

14 Determination per cell <strong>of</strong> maxima for intra-regional<br />

transactions and minima for regional domestic imports<br />

and regional domestic exports, and confrontation <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong>se minima with data from <strong>the</strong> trade survey (consistency<br />

checks)<br />

15 Application <strong>of</strong> cell-specific domestic export coefficients<br />

to <strong>the</strong> domestic sales table and reduction <strong>of</strong> remaining<br />

cells from <strong>the</strong> maximum intra-regional transactions table<br />

to reach <strong>the</strong> trade survey’s overall regional domestic<br />

export coefficients per sector<br />

16 Plausibility verification <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> preliminary regional domestic<br />

import coefficients and confrontation with <strong>the</strong><br />

import coefficients available from <strong>the</strong> trade survey<br />

17 Determination <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> final intra-regional transactions<br />

table through selective collection <strong>of</strong> additional data and<br />

revision <strong>of</strong> earlier estimates<br />

18 Calculation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional domestic exports table<br />

19 Calculation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional domestic imports table<br />

20 Calculation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> intra-regional transactions table for<br />

<strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> country<br />

Source: Boomsma and Oosterhaven (1992)<br />

73


Hybrid Methods<br />

This is because <strong>the</strong> traditional focus on processing sectors neglects some important<br />

attributes that distinguish regional economies. In effect, final demand activities<br />

tend to vary widely from region to region, for reasons that include <strong>the</strong><br />

presence or absence <strong>of</strong> universities, state <strong>cap</strong>itals, prisons, etc.. If <strong>the</strong>se peculiarities<br />

are not taken into consideration, <strong>the</strong>re is a serious risk <strong>of</strong> overestimating or<br />

underestimating <strong>the</strong> regional industry’s ability to supply goods and services for<br />

local demand. Accordingly, focusing only on <strong>the</strong> interindustry transactions may<br />

lead to biased coefficient estimates.<br />

Madsen and Jensen-Butler (1999) argue that “make and use approaches relate<br />

more directly to <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>oretical framework that underlies data collection for national<br />

and regional accounts and, as a consequence, to <strong>the</strong> data <strong>the</strong>mselves.”<br />

(Madsen and Jensen-Butler, 1999, p. 278). This is defined as an advantage since it<br />

is preferable to use directly <strong>the</strong> data which were collected in deriving regional<br />

data using non-survey methods, instead <strong>of</strong> using data that have been transformed<br />

as is <strong>the</strong> case with institutionally based accounts. O<strong>the</strong>r advantages are: <strong>the</strong> closeness<br />

to reality, <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> adopting this approach in a broader field <strong>of</strong> application<br />

such as environmental modelling and, finally, <strong>the</strong> same requirement <strong>of</strong> data<br />

as in <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> institutional approach.<br />

Recent contributions to this approach are provided by Jackson (1998), Lahr<br />

(2001b) and Fritz et al. (2002). These studies focus on one-single-region models.<br />

Regarding attempts to extend <strong>the</strong> make and use approach to interregional models,<br />

we refer to Eding and Oosterhaven (1996) and Madsen and Jensen-Butler (1999).<br />

3.2.4.1 Jackson’s regionalization method<br />

Jackson (1998) suggests a general method to regionalize commodity-byindustry<br />

accounts, in <strong>the</strong> context <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> US reporting system. This method contemplates<br />

<strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> inserting any superior data to replace mechanically obtained<br />

estimates. The national accounts on which Jackson bases his regionalization<br />

method are regrouped as in Tab. 3.4. He notes that this accounting system<br />

differs from <strong>the</strong> SNA for two reasons: first, use table entries are expressed in producers’<br />

prices; second, imports are differently treated. The first deviation is<br />

judged advantageous since it facilitates <strong>the</strong> regionalization procedure considering<br />

that data on margins are generally non-existent or scarce at sub-national level. On<br />

<strong>the</strong> contrary, <strong>the</strong> second deviation is felt to complicate <strong>the</strong> transition from accounting<br />

to modelling frameworks. For this reason, national accounts are modified<br />

prior to regionalization so as to emphasize imports accounting which at subnational<br />

level holds a crucial importance. Specifically, national imports are removed<br />

from <strong>the</strong> final demand column and inserted in an import row vector (Tab.<br />

3.5). Below, regionalization procedure for main aggregates will be described in<br />

more detail.<br />

74


Hybrid Methods<br />

Regional output. Regional output is estimated multiplying national output by<br />

coefficients expressing relationships between regional and national industry outputs.<br />

These indices are employment ratios multiplied (if <strong>the</strong>y are available) by reliable<br />

estimates <strong>of</strong> regional-to-national productivity ratios.<br />

Make and use tables. The Make and Use tables are estimated multiplying <strong>the</strong><br />

corresponding national tables by a diagonal matrix <strong>of</strong> coefficients used to estimate<br />

output. This implies that regional and national industry technologies are identical.<br />

Tab. 3.4 – Schematic layout <strong>of</strong> commodity-by-industry accounts with a negative entry for<br />

competitive imports in final demand<br />

Commodities Industries Final Demand Total Output<br />

Commodities U Fx( -m )<br />

Industries V g<br />

Value Added W<br />

Total Inputs q ′<br />

g ′<br />

Note: F is <strong>the</strong> matrix <strong>of</strong> domestic final demand, x is a vector <strong>of</strong> exports, m is a vector <strong>of</strong> imports, U is <strong>the</strong> Use<br />

matrix and V is <strong>the</strong> Make matrix<br />

Source: Jackson (1998)<br />

Tab. 3.5 – Schematic layout <strong>of</strong> commodity-by-industry accounts with imports shown as a<br />

commodities source<br />

Commodities Industries Final Demand Total Output<br />

Commodities U Fx q+m=s<br />

Industries V g<br />

Imports m ′<br />

mi ′<br />

Value Added W<br />

Total Inputs s ′<br />

′<br />

g<br />

Note: F is <strong>the</strong> matrix <strong>of</strong> domestic final demand, x is a vector <strong>of</strong> exports, m is a vector <strong>of</strong> imports, U is <strong>the</strong> Use<br />

matrix and V is <strong>the</strong> Make matrix, s is <strong>the</strong> vector <strong>of</strong> total output including imports<br />

Source: Jackson (1998)<br />

q<br />

75


Hybrid Methods<br />

76<br />

Formally, it results that:<br />

R<br />

R<br />

V = τV ˆ U = Uτ ˆ<br />

where V represents <strong>the</strong> make matrix, U is <strong>the</strong> use matrix, R indicates <strong>the</strong> region<br />

and ˆτ is <strong>the</strong> diagonal matrix <strong>of</strong> coefficients expressing relationship between national<br />

and regional output. More precisely, τ j = ερ j j where ε j is <strong>the</strong> ratio between<br />

regional and national employment <strong>of</strong> sector j , while ρ j is a measure <strong>of</strong><br />

productivity ratio for sector j . However, it is not specified how to measure productivity<br />

ratios.<br />

Final demand. Components <strong>of</strong> final demand are distinguished into local supply-dependent<br />

activities and local demand-dependent activities. The former are<br />

those for which commodity final demand is determined primarily by <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> local production sector. They are rest-<strong>of</strong>-<strong>the</strong>-world exports, gross private<br />

fixed investments (GPFI) and changes in business inventory (CBI). These<br />

components are estimated for all processing sectors multiplying national components<br />

by output ratios. A different treatment is reserved to sectors defined as special<br />

such as government industry (GI), rest-<strong>of</strong>-world industry (ROW), household<br />

industry (HI), inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) and non-comparable imports<br />

(NCI). As for IVA, ROW and NCI, values <strong>of</strong> exports, GPFI and CBI are estimated<br />

multiplying national ratio between <strong>the</strong> component considered and total final<br />

demand for processing sectors by total regional final demand for processing sectors.<br />

As for GI and HI, values for local supply-dependent activities retain <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

zero value as in <strong>the</strong> national accounts. The local demand-dependent activities are<br />

instead more directly functions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> final demand activity sector<br />

within <strong>the</strong> region. They are personal consumption expenditure and public expenditure.<br />

These components are derived multiplying <strong>the</strong> corresponding national<br />

component by variable control total ratios. These ratios can concern different aggregates<br />

according to <strong>the</strong> sector considered. For instance, as for food consumption,<br />

<strong>the</strong> ratio is represented by total regional personal income divided by total national<br />

personal income. As for public expenditure, a total could be total government<br />

education expenditure and so on. This scaling procedure can be extended to<br />

special sectors.<br />

Imports. Regional imports are treated as a vector aggregating national and rest<strong>of</strong>-nation<br />

imports. They are estimated using a supply-demand pool approach. This<br />

choice is justified arguing that location quotients, that have demonstrated to be<br />

superior to supply-demand techniques, have been used to estimate regional coefficients<br />

from national interindustry coefficient tables and not from entire tables.<br />

According to Jackson, this is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> reasons for which location quotients tend<br />

to overestimate sectoral multipliers. O<strong>the</strong>r methods like regional purchase coeffi-


Hybrid Methods<br />

cient are rejected because <strong>the</strong>y are less simple and conceptually less clear than<br />

supply-demand pool approach. Definitively, regional imports are calculated as<br />

difference between <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> purchases (from use table), final demand and exports<br />

and <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> sales (from make matrix). In o<strong>the</strong>r words, imports are derived<br />

as difference between demand and supply. Negative values <strong>of</strong> imports are<br />

accommodated introducing a new final demand activity to represent regional exports<br />

to <strong>the</strong> rest <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> nation. These values are transferred to this new column, reversed<br />

in sign, while values <strong>of</strong> imports are replaced by zeros. The analyst is made<br />

free to consider an aggregated vector <strong>of</strong> exports instead <strong>of</strong> two vectors. This can<br />

be made removing <strong>the</strong> exports from <strong>the</strong> calculation <strong>of</strong> regional imports. Imports as<br />

well as interregional exports are net because <strong>the</strong>y do not take account <strong>of</strong> crosshauling.<br />

To consider this latter, <strong>the</strong> estimated quantity <strong>of</strong> regional output that is<br />

cross-hauled (obtained as proportion <strong>of</strong> regional output) has to be added to exports<br />

to o<strong>the</strong>r regions and subtracted from imports. A different treatment is reserved to<br />

three special sectors: NCI, scrap and ROW. The NCI value for imports is defined<br />

to be equal to <strong>the</strong> negative sum <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r NCI. The scrap value is computed as <strong>the</strong><br />

difference between total scrap production, derived as <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> scrap column <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> regionalized make matrix, and <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regionalized scrap row <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

Use table (excluding <strong>the</strong> imports column). Imports for ROW are estimated by national<br />

share on imports.<br />

Value Added. As for value added, it is supposed that value added is proportionate<br />

to industry size and that value added per dollar <strong>of</strong> output is invariant across<br />

sub-national regions. Accordingly, value added is estimated multiplying national<br />

value added by coefficients used for deriving estimates <strong>of</strong> output.<br />

3.2.4.2 Lahr’s contribution<br />

Lahr (2001b) analyzes Jackson’s regionalization method (Jackson, 1998) and<br />

proposes some extensions to <strong>the</strong> regional accounting approach formulated by<br />

Jackson. Moreover, he <strong>of</strong>fers some guidelines to be followed in producing regional<br />

accounts from national accounts when a limited amount <strong>of</strong> secondary regional<br />

data is available.<br />

As for regional output, he suggests estimating it using <strong>the</strong> region’s shares <strong>of</strong><br />

labour income by industry, being measures <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative regional productivity.<br />

This is because, according to economic <strong>the</strong>ory, gross wages paid to a worker<br />

should equal <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> worker’s marginal product. Thus, dividing national<br />

gross wages by regional gross wages is like dividing marginal products. Resuming<br />

<strong>the</strong> notation used by Jackson, <strong>the</strong> labour income share coincides with <strong>the</strong> productivity-enhanced<br />

value <strong>of</strong> τ .<br />

With reference to <strong>the</strong> regional make table, Lahr notes that Jackson estimates<br />

<strong>the</strong> make table (as well as <strong>the</strong> use table) substantially using output ratios. This im-<br />

77


Hybrid Methods<br />

plies that <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> spatially invariant mix <strong>of</strong> commodities is assumed.<br />

Moreover, he presumes that Jackson refers to data on output by industry because<br />

those by commodities are not generally available. If output data by commodities<br />

were available, <strong>the</strong> same adjustment proposed by Jackson on <strong>the</strong> national make<br />

matrix would be made. If both industry and commodity output are available, he<br />

suggests a bi-proportional adjustment or ma<strong>the</strong>matical programming procedure to<br />

balance <strong>the</strong> regional make matrix. This latter approach would permit some variation<br />

in <strong>the</strong> mix <strong>of</strong> commodities produced by an industry but would constrain it to<br />

being as close as possible to that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> nation.<br />

With regard to value added, Lahr notes that statistical <strong>of</strong>fices also publish regional<br />

data on value added albeit at a more aggregated level. Therefore, it would<br />

need to take account <strong>of</strong> available data in deriving estimates <strong>of</strong> value added. For<br />

this, he suggests calculating regional value added multiplying initially national<br />

value added by output shares and <strong>the</strong>n proportionally adjusting groups <strong>of</strong> estimates<br />

on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> available corresponding totals.<br />

As for labour income, since this component is considered crucial, being <strong>the</strong><br />

biggest one within value added and for its <strong>impact</strong> on multipliers, detailed data at<br />

local level regarding wage and salaries disbursement by industry should be collected<br />

or estimated accurately. Then, <strong>the</strong>se data should be proportionally adjusted<br />

on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>ficial data on regional labour income which are available at a<br />

more aggregated level.<br />

The regional use matrix is derived scaling columns <strong>of</strong> national use matrix in<br />

order to assure that <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> columns equals <strong>the</strong> difference between regional<br />

output and value added. This adjustment is <strong>the</strong> so-called fabrication adjustment.<br />

As for final demand (excluding exports), he mentions <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> estimating<br />

final demand activities econometrically. However, he notices that most<br />

analysts generally follow an approach that is not far from <strong>the</strong> one used by Jackson.<br />

Moreover, he reminds that much more attention should be paid to <strong>the</strong> region’s<br />

household consumption pattern. In this regard, regional data on personal<br />

consumption expenditure, that are available in most OECD countries, should be<br />

collected and implemented.<br />

Once an estimate <strong>of</strong> net final demand has been produced, one can proceed to<br />

estimate exports. If data on interregional trade are missing, Lahr reminds that developers<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional accounts generally regionalize exports applying output ratios<br />

to exports. However, if data on interregional trade are available on a commodity<br />

basis, <strong>the</strong>se data can be used to distinguish interregional exports from international<br />

exports.<br />

With estimates by commodity <strong>of</strong> regional output, final demand, exports and<br />

imports (<strong>the</strong>se latter obtained as Jackson suggested) and by industry <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

output and value added, regional use accounts could be re-estimated using biproportional<br />

adjustment like RAS where total rows are differences between sums<br />

78


Hybrid Methods<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional output by commodity and imports and sums <strong>of</strong> net final demand and<br />

exports, whilst total columns are differences between total output by industry and<br />

value added.<br />

3.2.4.3 The Austrian experience<br />

Fritz et al. (2002) illustrate <strong>the</strong> procedure <strong>the</strong>y adopted to derive 1995 Austrian<br />

regional tables starting from a 1995 national table in make and use format.<br />

Regional output, make and use tables. Data on regional outputs were available<br />

from Austrian statistics. As for <strong>the</strong> regional make matrix, data by sector on produced<br />

commodity shares were taken from survey or o<strong>the</strong>r sources. For sectors for<br />

which survey data were not available, <strong>the</strong>y applied national shares. Then <strong>the</strong>y reconcile<br />

commodity shares in order to assure <strong>the</strong> sum over all shares for each activity<br />

was one. The regional intermediate use matrix was derived using <strong>the</strong> same<br />

procedure used for producing <strong>the</strong> regional make table.<br />

Regional Final Use Table. With regard to <strong>the</strong> regional final use, components <strong>of</strong><br />

final demand were derived using value added, sectoral output and population data.<br />

In particular, private consumption for each commodity was estimated by per<strong>cap</strong>ita<br />

value added ratio. Investments were calculated multiplying total regional<br />

investment demand by national shares in total investment. Total regional investment<br />

demand was estimated as a sum <strong>of</strong> regional output multiplied by national ratios<br />

<strong>of</strong> investment to output. Changes in regional inventories were approximated<br />

for each activity multiplying regional output by national ratios <strong>of</strong> change in inventories<br />

to output. Public consumption for each commodity was derived multiplying<br />

total regional public consumption by national shares <strong>of</strong> public consumption to<br />

output. Total regional public consumption was estimated multiplying total regional<br />

value added by national ratio <strong>of</strong> government consumption and total value<br />

added. Data on exports were collected conducting surveys among regional firms.<br />

Firms were requested to give information on <strong>the</strong> ratio <strong>of</strong> regional exports on total<br />

revenues.<br />

Imports. Intermediate and final uses were gross <strong>of</strong> commodities imported from<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r regions or from abroad. To separate uses <strong>of</strong> locally produced commodity<br />

from uses <strong>of</strong> imported goods, an import ratio was applied uniformly along rows to<br />

<strong>the</strong> intermediate and final uses tables. Import ratio for each commodity was calculated<br />

dividing total imports by total uses (both intermediate and final). These ratios<br />

were estimated using qualitative information and, in case, were adjusted using<br />

national commodity import ratios.<br />

After completing both <strong>the</strong> regional make table and regional use table, <strong>the</strong>y derived<br />

a sector-by-sector input-output table using <strong>the</strong> industry-technology assumption.<br />

79


Hybrid Methods<br />

3.3 Bottom-up approach<br />

The “bottom-up” approach attempts to build <strong>the</strong> table from local data. Studies<br />

based on this approach are not many because <strong>of</strong> unavailability <strong>of</strong> regional data.<br />

Examples are provided by: Smith (1983) who applied <strong>the</strong> so-called ASSET system<br />

(A System for Small Economy Table) to derive a regional table for <strong>the</strong> town<br />

<strong>of</strong> Cooroy (Queensland, Australia); Martins (1993) who constructed a regional table<br />

for Illinois in 1982 using establishment-level data and Piispala (2000) who derived<br />

all 1995 regional tables for Finland using information from a survey over<br />

9600 establishments. The drawback <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> bottom-up approach is in <strong>the</strong> estimation<br />

<strong>of</strong> regional imports because a small region does not usually record export and import<br />

flows (Imansyah, 2000).<br />

3.4 Horizontal approach<br />

In this approach, methods that use existing regional tables to derive fur<strong>the</strong>r regional<br />

tables are included. They are: <strong>the</strong> “modified” RAS (based on insertion <strong>of</strong><br />

fur<strong>the</strong>r information in addition to column and row totals) applied to an existing<br />

regional table; <strong>the</strong> FES-concept-based method (Imansyah, 2000) and <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong><br />

representative regional coefficients.<br />

The FES-concept-based method is a technique developed from intuitions <strong>of</strong><br />

Van der Westhuizen (1992). It is based on <strong>the</strong> concept <strong>of</strong> “fundamental economic<br />

structure” (Jensen et al., 1988) and it uses regression techniques requiring <strong>the</strong><br />

availability <strong>of</strong> set <strong>of</strong> regional input-output tables for similar regions. The onerosity<br />

<strong>of</strong> data requirements significantly reduces application possibilities <strong>of</strong> this method.<br />

The method based on exchanging regional coefficient consists <strong>of</strong> “borrowing”<br />

survey-based input-output coefficients <strong>of</strong> a given region to construct a table for<br />

ano<strong>the</strong>r region (Tiebout, 1969; Czamanski and Malizia, 1969; Hewings, 1977;<br />

Thumann, 1978; Hewings and Janson, 1980; Antille, 1990). It is clear that a necessary<br />

condition for applicability <strong>of</strong> this method is that economic structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

two regions has to be as similar as possible. Tiebout (1969) used this idea for his<br />

forecasting model <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> state <strong>of</strong> Washington. Czamanski and Malizia (1969) argued<br />

that <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> unadjusted national coefficients is <strong>the</strong> less appropriate for<br />

primary industries and industries in which <strong>the</strong> region specializes. Thus, <strong>the</strong>y suggested<br />

using coefficients <strong>of</strong> a different region for <strong>the</strong>se sensitive and important<br />

sectors. Hewings (1977) carried out an experiment aimed at verifying <strong>the</strong> effectiveness<br />

<strong>of</strong> using representative coefficients. He used a survey-based table for<br />

Washington State for 1963 to estimate Kansas interindustry structure in 1965 and<br />

used a survey-based table for Kansas in 1965 to estimate <strong>the</strong> table for Washington<br />

Sate in 1963. He found, multiplying actual final demand by <strong>the</strong> borrowed coefficients<br />

matrix, that, for some sectors, outputs were predicted ra<strong>the</strong>r accurately<br />

whereas, for o<strong>the</strong>rs, <strong>the</strong> estimated outputs were far from <strong>the</strong> known values. On <strong>the</strong><br />

80


Hybrid Methods<br />

contrary, applying <strong>the</strong> RAS procedure to <strong>the</strong> Washington survey-based table in<br />

conjunction with Kansas survey-based information on total intermediate inputs<br />

and outputs, he achieved far superior results in terms <strong>of</strong> predicted sectoral output<br />

for Kansas. However, from <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> single coefficients, he noted that RAS<br />

did not produce more improvements in terms <strong>of</strong> accuracy than those achieved<br />

with <strong>the</strong> simple coefficients matrix exchange.<br />

81


4 Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

4.1 Introduction<br />

Considering <strong>the</strong> existence <strong>of</strong> numerous indirect techniques finalized to avoid<br />

constructing regional tables through survey methods, it becomes important to verify<br />

not only <strong>the</strong>oretical foundations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> various indirect methods, but also <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

real performances in representing accurately a given productive structure. In <strong>the</strong><br />

literature, evaluation <strong>of</strong> performances <strong>of</strong> indirect methods has been carried out by<br />

measuring deviations between indirectly constructed tables and survey-based tables.<br />

However, <strong>the</strong>re are four major obstacles to a sound evaluation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se techniques.<br />

Firstly, it is assumed that <strong>the</strong> survey models generate true values, an assumption<br />

which may be wrong considering <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> sampling errors as well as<br />

reconciliation adjustments, indirect estimation <strong>of</strong> some quantities and various arbitrary<br />

procedures used in constructing survey-based tables. Accordingly, comparisons<br />

are aimed at evaluating <strong>the</strong> extent to which indirect methods are able to<br />

reproduce <strong>the</strong> survey-based matrix which, in some cells, can suffer from errors<br />

that might be bigger than those <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> indirectly derived matrix.<br />

Secondly, <strong>the</strong> distance between two matrices may be measured using a multiplicity<br />

<strong>of</strong> indices having different properties and characteristics. Therefore, <strong>the</strong><br />

choice among methods becomes ra<strong>the</strong>r difficult (Richardson, 1985).<br />

Thirdly, it needs to clear what purpose <strong>the</strong> input-output matrix must serve.<br />

There is in fact a choice between partitive accuracy (precision <strong>of</strong> estimates) and<br />

holistic accuracy (faithful representation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> overall economy in spite <strong>of</strong> possible<br />

errors) (Jensen, 1980; Hewings and Syversen, 1982; Hewings, 1984). In <strong>the</strong><br />

first case, a direct comparison between indirectly and directly constructed matrices<br />

might be sensible, assuming that <strong>the</strong> survey-based matrix is a “true” table. On<br />

<strong>the</strong> contrary, in <strong>the</strong> second case, a more satisfactory test might be an ex post<br />

<strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> predictive power <strong>of</strong> indirect models with regard to real <strong>impact</strong>s.<br />

Never<strong>the</strong>less, <strong>the</strong>re may be serious problems in separating out <strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> from


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

everything else and which happened during <strong>the</strong> period <strong>of</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> (Isserman and<br />

Merrifield, 1982).<br />

Finally, only indirect methods using same statistical information should be<br />

compared, since more satisfactory results coming from some methods may not<br />

depend on <strong>the</strong>ir characteristics but on major volume <strong>of</strong> information used for <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

application (Strassoldo, 1988).<br />

In next paragraphs, <strong>the</strong> main measures that have been employed so far to test<br />

accuracy <strong>of</strong> indirect methods will be discussed. Then, empirical studies that were<br />

carried out in <strong>the</strong> literature to verify <strong>the</strong> validity <strong>of</strong> indirect methods will be illustrated.<br />

Finally, some concluding notes, summarising results from empirical studies,<br />

will be given.<br />

4.2 Measures for comparing input-output matrices<br />

In <strong>the</strong> literature, measures that have been used to estimate deviations between<br />

survey-based and indirect-method-based tables can be divided into two main categories:<br />

those comparing direct coefficients and those comparing actual and surrogate<br />

vectors <strong>of</strong> exports, imports, gross outputs and sectoral multipliers. Thumann<br />

(1978), in commenting on <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> gross output comparisons, notes that <strong>the</strong>re<br />

are infinite alternative matrices that are consistent with <strong>the</strong> inherent accounting<br />

constraints. This conclusion has been later confirmed by Hewings and Janson<br />

(1980). Moreover, gross outputs include components exogenous to <strong>the</strong> system,<br />

<strong>the</strong>refore <strong>the</strong>y make gross output comparisons look better than <strong>the</strong>y really are<br />

(Round, 1983).<br />

Overall, many measures have been employed to test accuracy <strong>of</strong> indirect methods.<br />

Lahr (2001a) states to have found 14 different measures to determine <strong>the</strong> accuracy<br />

<strong>of</strong> I-O models (on <strong>the</strong> contrary, we counted 23 different measures). Lahr<br />

claims that this can be explained by <strong>the</strong> fact that “regional tables are unlike many<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r matrix-based models. The structure <strong>of</strong> I-O tables and <strong>the</strong> possible uses toward<br />

which <strong>the</strong>y can be applied require a very stringent set <strong>of</strong> properties for a<br />

general-use comparison measure.” (Lahr, 2001a, p. 236).<br />

Butterfield and Mules (1980) argue that only one measure is not sufficient to<br />

reach a satisfactory judgement when comparing more techniques because <strong>of</strong> limits<br />

associated to each measure. For this reason, <strong>the</strong>y propose a interesting multipletesting<br />

procedure involving non-parametric tests, regression <strong>analysis</strong>, chi-square<br />

contingency table <strong>of</strong> size distribution <strong>of</strong> coefficients and mean and mode <strong>of</strong> absolute<br />

and standardized absolute difference.<br />

In spite <strong>of</strong> a wide use <strong>of</strong> distance and similarity measures, studies discussing<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir properties or justifying <strong>the</strong>ir use are not many. This lack <strong>of</strong> investigation is<br />

even more worrying if one considers that <strong>the</strong> relationship between error and <strong>the</strong><br />

value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> measure adopted must be known in order to draw conclusions regard-<br />

84


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

ing model performances. Instead, this relationship is <strong>of</strong>ten unknown and is assumed<br />

to be linear, whereby if <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> a given distance measure for one<br />

model is twice that measured for ano<strong>the</strong>r model, it is assumed that <strong>the</strong> first model<br />

is twice less accurate than <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r (Knudsen and Fo<strong>the</strong>ringham, 1986).<br />

Studies, discussing characteristics <strong>of</strong> distance and similarity measures, are for<br />

example Morrison and Smith (1974), Butterfield and Mules (1980), Knudsen and<br />

Fo<strong>the</strong>ringham (1986), Asami and Smith (1995), Flegg and Webber (2000), Lahr<br />

(2001a). Unfortunately, apart from <strong>the</strong> research <strong>of</strong> Knudsen and Fo<strong>the</strong>ringam, <strong>the</strong><br />

existing studies do not seem to face <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> errors in an extensive and scientific<br />

way (Lahr, 2001a).<br />

Measures used to compare survey with indirectly constructed tables can be regrouped<br />

into three main classes: traditional statistics, general distance statistics<br />

and information-based statistics.<br />

4.2.1 Traditional statistics<br />

Within this category, <strong>the</strong>re can be included chi-square statistic, contingency table,<br />

regression and correlation <strong>analysis</strong>, non-parametric tests.<br />

Chi- Square Statistic. This statistic takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

n n<br />

2<br />

χ = ∑∑<br />

( ) 2<br />

aij − bij<br />

b<br />

i= 1 j= 1 ij<br />

where ij a are estimated coefficients whilst b ij are survey-based coefficients.<br />

Clearly, <strong>the</strong> lower <strong>the</strong> chi-square <strong>the</strong> better <strong>the</strong> estimate is. A merit <strong>of</strong> this statistic<br />

is that it is based on proportionate error which also allows for comparisons among<br />

different studies. However, <strong>the</strong>re are some related problems. First, a problem happens<br />

when aij ≠ 0 and b ij = 0 , which makes <strong>the</strong> standardization meaningless. In<br />

this case, <strong>the</strong> approach <strong>of</strong>ten used is to omit such pairs <strong>of</strong> coefficients in <strong>the</strong> calculation<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> statistic or to assign some arbitrarily chosen very low value to each<br />

zero b ij (Butterfield and Mules, 1980). Second, results could be distorted in cases<br />

where coefficients are close to zero. Third, <strong>the</strong> squaring <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simulation error<br />

may take <strong>the</strong> statistic oversensitive to outliers (Flegg and Webber, 2000).<br />

To overcome <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> meaningless standardization, Butterfield and<br />

Mules proposed to calculate <strong>the</strong> statistic in terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> frequency distribution <strong>of</strong><br />

size <strong>of</strong> coefficients, arranging coefficients in class intervals and calculating for<br />

each class <strong>the</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrence.<br />

85


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

86<br />

Thus, <strong>the</strong> statistic becomes:<br />

n<br />

2<br />

χ = ∑<br />

( ) 2<br />

fi − fi<br />

f<br />

i= 1 i<br />

where i is a given interval <strong>of</strong> coefficients, n is <strong>the</strong> total number <strong>of</strong> intervals, f i is<br />

<strong>the</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrences related to estimated coefficients within <strong>the</strong> class i<br />

and f i is <strong>the</strong> frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrences related to “true” coefficients within <strong>the</strong><br />

class i . Regrouping coefficients into intervals makes it unlikely that f i = 0 and<br />

fi ≠ 0 .<br />

Flegg and Webber introduced a modified version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> statistic that was<br />

called: weighted chi square. It takes <strong>the</strong> form:<br />

( ) 2<br />

n n aij − bij<br />

= ∑ j∑<br />

WCS w<br />

b<br />

j= 1 i= 1 ij<br />

It is weighted on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> proportions <strong>of</strong> employment <strong>of</strong> purchasing sector j<br />

( w j ) in order to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> differing relative importance <strong>of</strong> sectors when<br />

aggregating <strong>the</strong> results across sectors.<br />

To overcome <strong>the</strong> drawback associated to coefficients close to zero, Flegg and<br />

Webber excluded from calculation cases for which coefficients were smaller than<br />

0.001.<br />

Contingency table. Butterfield and Mules (1980) proposed to construct a chisquare<br />

contingency table for frequency distribution <strong>of</strong> coefficients, i.e.: F = ⎡<br />

⎣fij ⎤<br />

⎦<br />

where i are class intervals for <strong>the</strong> estimated matrix while j are class intervals for<br />

<strong>the</strong> survey matrix. Therefore f ij expresses how many estimated coefficients are in<br />

<strong>the</strong> interval i and how many true coefficients are in <strong>the</strong> interval j . If estimated<br />

coefficient matrix is a good estimate, <strong>the</strong> cells on <strong>the</strong> principal diagonal, f ii , will<br />

contain high frequencies while <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r cells will have low frequencies.


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Regression and correlation <strong>analysis</strong>. The regression approach was suggested<br />

by Butterfield and Mules (1980). It may be applied if <strong>the</strong>re are sufficient elements<br />

in a row or column to give a satisfactory number <strong>of</strong> observations. The regression<br />

equation is:<br />

a = α + βb<br />

ij ij<br />

From this equation, three test coefficients can be calculated: (i) <strong>the</strong> squared corre-<br />

2<br />

lation coefficient ( R ) which would be close to unity for a good fit; (ii) an intercept<br />

or constant term (α ) which would be close to zero for a good fit and (iii) <strong>the</strong><br />

slope coefficient or regression coefficient ( β ) which would be close to unity for a<br />

good fit. The advantages related to <strong>the</strong> application <strong>of</strong> this technique are: (a) zero<br />

values do not pose any problem; (b) regression <strong>analysis</strong> is readily usable thanks to<br />

computer packages; (c) <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> can be limited to some coefficients (for instance<br />

larger coefficients having major <strong>impact</strong> on multipliers). The main disadvantage<br />

is possible ambiguity which can arise when intercept is significantly different<br />

from zero and a slope coefficient significantly differs from unity. In this<br />

case, it becomes hard to express a judgement particularly when comparing two or<br />

2<br />

more indirect techniques. Moreover, R could have a high value also in <strong>the</strong> cases<br />

<strong>of</strong> underestimation or overestimation, if <strong>the</strong> errors followed some consistent pattern.<br />

Therefore, Butterfield and Mules advise calculating fur<strong>the</strong>r measures.<br />

Non-parametric tests. Non-parametric tests can be used to test if an estimated<br />

matrix consistently underestimates or overestimates a survey-based matrix. In this<br />

context, <strong>the</strong>ir use is aimed at examining <strong>the</strong> size rankings <strong>of</strong> pairs <strong>of</strong> coefficients.<br />

Acceptance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> null hypo<strong>the</strong>sis <strong>of</strong> no significant difference between <strong>the</strong> two<br />

rankings means that one is not consistently above or below <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r. However,<br />

one would come to <strong>the</strong> same conclusion even in <strong>the</strong> case in which <strong>the</strong>re were large<br />

errors and positive errors compensated negative errors (Butterfield and Mules,<br />

1980).<br />

87


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

4.2.2 General distance statistics<br />

General distance statistics are: Euclidean metric distance, index <strong>of</strong> inequality,<br />

index <strong>of</strong> relative change, similarity index, mean absolute difference, mean absolute<br />

relative difference, mean weighted absolute error, mean weighted error, mean<br />

weighted relative error, standardised total error, weighted absolute difference.<br />

Euclidean Metric Distance (EMD). The Euclidean Metric Distance or root<br />

mean squared error was introduced by Harrigan et al. (1980b) in <strong>the</strong> input-output<br />

literature. It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

88<br />

1 n n<br />

2<br />

n i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

( ) 2<br />

∑∑ ij ij<br />

EMD = a −b<br />

This measure does not yield any idea <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative difference between two<br />

matrices, but ra<strong>the</strong>r only <strong>the</strong> average total difference. Hence, one cannot really determine<br />

how bad or good an estimated matrix is when compared to <strong>the</strong> actual<br />

(Lahr, 2001a).<br />

Index <strong>of</strong> Inequality (Theil’s U). This measure was originally developed in Theil<br />

et al. (1966). It was used in <strong>the</strong> input-output literature by Stevens and Trainer<br />

(1976). This measure, commonly called Theil’s index <strong>of</strong> inequality, can be<br />

broadly interpreted as a standardized root mean squared error. It takes <strong>the</strong> following<br />

form:<br />

U =<br />

( ) 2<br />

n n<br />

∑∑ aij − bij<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

b<br />

2<br />

ij<br />

It has <strong>the</strong> advantage <strong>of</strong> yielding an overall distance proportion as well as three<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r proportions: bias, variance and covariance. These extra error proportions are<br />

valuable in showing <strong>the</strong> researcher <strong>the</strong> patterns <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> differences between two<br />

matrices.


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Index <strong>of</strong> relative change. The index <strong>of</strong> relative change was introduced by Isard<br />

and Roman<strong>of</strong>f (1968). It holds an unconventional feature since it ranges in value<br />

from zero to two. It has <strong>the</strong> following structure:<br />

RC<br />

ij<br />

=<br />

1 2<br />

a − b<br />

ij ij<br />

( aij + bij<br />

)<br />

Similarity index (SI). In order to remove <strong>the</strong> potentially confusing property <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> index <strong>of</strong> relative change, Isard and Roman<strong>of</strong>f modified this index to range<br />

from zero to unity, calling <strong>the</strong> next index a similarity index whose form is:<br />

SI<br />

ij<br />

= 1−<br />

a − b<br />

ij ij<br />

( aij + bij<br />

)<br />

It is a standardized measure that takes one value when aij = bij<br />

and zero for ei<strong>the</strong>r<br />

a ij or b ij being zero when <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r is non-zero. There are problems <strong>of</strong> skewness<br />

and extreme values associated to this measure. Therefore Butterfield and Mules<br />

(1980) suggest comparing a modal value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> SI ij with <strong>the</strong>ir mean to assess this.<br />

Ano<strong>the</strong>r problem is that over-unity and under-unity values <strong>of</strong> SI ij will cancel out<br />

in <strong>the</strong> averaging process, giving <strong>the</strong> impression <strong>of</strong> a mean close to unity. If <strong>the</strong><br />

distribution <strong>of</strong> SI ij is uni-modal, <strong>the</strong> mode may help to overcome this problem.<br />

Mean Absolute Difference (MAD). It was introduced by Morrison and Smith<br />

(1974). It has <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

n n 1<br />

MAD = a −b<br />

∑∑<br />

2<br />

n i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

ij ij<br />

This measure gives an idea about average error. However, it suffers from some<br />

weaknesses. First, it is affected by any skewness in <strong>the</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> errors. For<br />

instance, one large error in a set <strong>of</strong> very small errors will pull <strong>the</strong> mean upwards<br />

and give an impression <strong>of</strong> greater error than exists on <strong>the</strong> whole. According to<br />

Butterfield and Mules (1980), this can be considered ei<strong>the</strong>r a disadvantage or an<br />

advantage according to <strong>the</strong> use to which <strong>the</strong> matrix is bound. In fact, if pursued<br />

accuracy is holistic, this will be an advantage since larger coefficients affect multipliers.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>rwise, if <strong>the</strong> objective is to construct an accurate system <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

89


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

accounts, this will be a disadvantage. In this case, Butterfield and Mules propose<br />

to calculate <strong>the</strong> modal value <strong>of</strong> each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> absolute differences and to compare<br />

<strong>the</strong>se latter with <strong>the</strong> respective means. Second, given <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> larger coefficients,<br />

this measure is not sufficiently sensitive to errors related to large coefficients<br />

(Lahr, 2001). Third, its magnitude changes with <strong>the</strong> order (size) <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> I-O<br />

tables being evaluated. Forth, it does not consider <strong>the</strong> relative importance <strong>of</strong> coefficients.<br />

Mean Absolute Relative Difference (MARD). This index is a variant <strong>of</strong> MAD<br />

that considers <strong>the</strong> relative dimension <strong>of</strong> coefficients. It is sometimes called as<br />

standardised mean absolute difference (SMAD). It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

90<br />

1<br />

a − b<br />

n n<br />

ij ij<br />

MARD = 2 ∑∑ n i= 1 j= 1 bij<br />

Most considerations made for MAD are worth for this measure as well.<br />

Mean Weighted Absolute Error. The mean weighted absolute error was employed<br />

by Flegg and Webber (2000). It takes this form:<br />

n n 1<br />

MWAE = w a −b<br />

∑ ∑<br />

j ij ij<br />

n j= 1 i=<br />

1<br />

It is very similar to MAD with <strong>the</strong> difference that employment ratios are used as<br />

weights and it is less sensitive to <strong>the</strong> size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> input-output matrices under study.<br />

Mean Weighted Error (MWE). The mean weighted error was used by Flegg<br />

and Webber (2000). It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

1<br />

MWE = w a −b<br />

n n<br />

∑ j∑ ( ij ij)<br />

n j= 1 i=<br />

1<br />

This index is <strong>the</strong> mean <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> weighted column sums <strong>of</strong> differences between <strong>the</strong><br />

simulated and survey-based coefficients. The main disadvantage is that large positive<br />

and negative weighted column sums can <strong>of</strong>fset each o<strong>the</strong>r giving a misleading<br />

impression <strong>of</strong> a good overall simulation.<br />

Flegg and Webber argued that this index is able to <strong>cap</strong>ture in someway any<br />

systematic tendency towards overestimation or underestimation. However, it dis-


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

regards <strong>the</strong> intersectoral variation in simulation errors. To take account <strong>of</strong> this factor,<br />

<strong>the</strong>y developed <strong>the</strong> following statistic:<br />

( ) 2 2<br />

MWE 0<br />

ω = − + σ<br />

MWE MWE<br />

n<br />

σ is <strong>the</strong> standard deviation <strong>of</strong> wj ( aij − bij)<br />

where MWE<br />

∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

. By minimizing ω MWE<br />

ra<strong>the</strong>r than MWE , both bias and variance are considered when selecting a method<br />

<strong>of</strong> estimation.<br />

Mean Weighted Relative Error. The mean weighted relative error was used by<br />

Flegg and Webber (2000). It is:<br />

n 1<br />

MWRE = ∑ w<br />

n<br />

j=<br />

1<br />

n<br />

∑(<br />

aij − bij<br />

)<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

j n<br />

∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

b<br />

ij<br />

It was conceived to overcome limits <strong>of</strong> MWE taking account <strong>of</strong> two factors:<br />

(a) <strong>the</strong> relative size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> simulation error for each coefficient; (b) <strong>the</strong> relative<br />

a − b b .<br />

size <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> coefficient in question. The first factor is represented by ( )<br />

n<br />

ij ij ij<br />

The second factor is measured by <strong>the</strong> ratio bij ∑ bij<br />

expressing each survey-<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

based coefficient as a proportion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate inputs for a given<br />

purchasing sector j . This second adjustment is intended to be an attempt to take<br />

account <strong>of</strong> West’s (1981) considerations, according to which it needs to focus on<br />

<strong>the</strong> largest coefficients because errors related to <strong>the</strong>se coefficients have <strong>the</strong> greatest<br />

<strong>impact</strong> in <strong>the</strong> estimated sectoral multipliers. Analogous to MWE, Flegg and<br />

Webber, in order to take account <strong>of</strong> both bias and variance, developed <strong>the</strong> following<br />

statistic:<br />

( ) 2 2<br />

MWRE 0<br />

ω = − + σ<br />

MWRE MWRE<br />

n n<br />

σ is <strong>the</strong> standard deviation <strong>of</strong> wj∑( aij − bij) ∑ bij<br />

.<br />

where MWRE<br />

i= 1 i=<br />

1<br />

91


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Standardized Total Error (STE). The name <strong>of</strong> this measure was given by Miller<br />

and Blair (1982, 1983). However, it was first used by Leontief (1966) with a different<br />

name. It has <strong>the</strong> following structure:<br />

92<br />

STE =<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

ij ij<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

a − b<br />

b<br />

ij<br />

The major drawback is that it may not be exceptionally sensitive to high-valued<br />

cells.<br />

Weighted Absolute Difference (WAD). Lahr (2001a) was <strong>the</strong> first one to introduce<br />

it. It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

WAD =<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

( )<br />

a − b a + b<br />

n n<br />

∑∑(<br />

aij + bij)<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

ij ij ij ij<br />

It is designed to make up for problems <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r measures: low <strong>sensitivity</strong> to errors<br />

in large cells and indefinite values. As for <strong>the</strong> first problem, <strong>the</strong> term ( aij + bij<br />

)<br />

weights <strong>the</strong> absolute difference term so that <strong>the</strong> errors <strong>of</strong> large cells are emphasized.<br />

In this way, <strong>the</strong> measure is extremely sensitive to error in large cells. With<br />

regard to <strong>the</strong> second problem, if ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> matrices is nonzero for a cell, <strong>the</strong><br />

measure’s value is never undefined. However, <strong>the</strong>re is one evident problem with<br />

this measure: it does not necessarily express proportional error.


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

4.2.3 Information-based statistics<br />

Of information-based statistics, information content index was used in <strong>the</strong> input-output<br />

context. This index was borrowed by Czamanski and Malizia (1969)<br />

from <strong>the</strong> field <strong>of</strong> information <strong>the</strong>ory. The survey-based matrix is considered as a<br />

forecast <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> non-survey estimate and <strong>the</strong> additional information contained in<br />

<strong>the</strong> latter is quantified by <strong>the</strong> following index:<br />

n n<br />

ij<br />

: = ∑∑ ij log<br />

i= 1 j= 1 bij<br />

( ) 2<br />

I A B a<br />

a<br />

The lower <strong>the</strong> information content thus measured, <strong>the</strong> closer <strong>the</strong> estimate. The<br />

information content has <strong>the</strong> disadvantage that it cannot handle a situation in which<br />

<strong>the</strong> survey estimate is zero and <strong>the</strong> estimated value is nonzero. Moreover, it is difficult<br />

to judge if a particular value <strong>of</strong> this measure is high or low, and so <strong>the</strong><br />

measure would appear only to be useful in ranking different methods.<br />

4.3 Overview <strong>of</strong> empirical studies comparing indirect methods<br />

The lack <strong>of</strong> sufficient and reliable survey data have limited <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong><br />

comparing performances <strong>of</strong> indirect methods (Miernyk, 1976). In effect, studies<br />

oriented towards this aim are relatively few. Here, we will examine <strong>the</strong> following<br />

ones: Shaffer and Chu (1969a, 1969b), Morrison and Smith (1974), Butterfield<br />

and Mules (1980), Eskelinen and Suorsa (1980), Sawyer and Miller (1983), Mogorovich<br />

(1987), Willis (1987), Harris and Liu (1998), Gilchrist and Louis (1999)<br />

and Flegg and Webber (2000).<br />

Schaffer and Chu (1969a) compare simulated I-O tables with <strong>the</strong> Washington<br />

survey-based matrix by using chi-square statistics for each column <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> tables.<br />

They find that <strong>the</strong> best method able to estimate closer coefficients to those <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

survey-based matrix is SLQ, followed by CILQ, RIOT simulation and Supply-<br />

Demand Pool. They also find that income multipliers obtained by using SLQ are<br />

<strong>the</strong> closest to survey-based income multipliers. In every case, <strong>the</strong> non-surveybased<br />

multipliers overestimate those derived from <strong>the</strong> survey table.<br />

In a later paper, Shaffer and Chu (1969b) include in <strong>the</strong>ir study three states<br />

(Washington, Utah and New Mexico) and <strong>the</strong>y use <strong>the</strong> index <strong>of</strong> relative change,<br />

<strong>the</strong> regression and information contents procedure as methods <strong>of</strong> comparison. The<br />

best simulation results are obtained by SLQ, followed by Supply-Demand Pool,<br />

iterative RIOT procedure and CILQ.<br />

93


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Tab. 4.1 – Some measures used to compare survey-based tables with indirect-methodbased<br />

tables<br />

94<br />

TRADITIONAL STATISTICS<br />

( ) Chi-square statistic 2<br />

n n a 2<br />

ij − bij<br />

χ j = ∑∑<br />

b<br />

i= 1 j= 1 ij<br />

( ) Weighted chi-square 2<br />

n n aij − bij<br />

WCS = ∑wj∑ Contingency Table<br />

Regression<br />

Correlation coefficient<br />

R =<br />

b<br />

j= 1 i= 1 ij<br />

F<br />

⎡ f ⎤<br />

= ⎣ ij ⎦<br />

a = α + βb<br />

ij ij<br />

n n<br />

∑∑(<br />

aij −a)( bij −b)<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

GENERAL DISTANCE STATISTICS<br />

n n n n<br />

∑∑( aij −a) ∑∑(<br />

bij −b)<br />

i= 1 j= 1 i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

1 n n<br />

n i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

2 2<br />

Euclidean metric distance ( ) 2<br />

EMD = 2 ∑∑ aij −bij<br />

Index <strong>of</strong> inequality<br />

Index <strong>of</strong> relative change<br />

Similarity index<br />

Mean Absolute difference<br />

U =<br />

( ) 2<br />

n n<br />

∑∑ aij − bij<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

b<br />

2<br />

ij<br />

aij − bij<br />

RCij<br />

=<br />

1<br />

2<br />

SIij<br />

= 1−<br />

aij − bij<br />

a + b<br />

( aij + bij<br />

)<br />

( ij ij )<br />

n n 1<br />

MAD = a − b<br />

Note: ij a are estimated coefficients whilst b ij are survey-based coefficients<br />

∑∑<br />

2<br />

n i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

ij ij


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Tab. 4.1 – Some measures used to compare survey-based tables with indirect-methodbased<br />

tables (continued)<br />

Mean Absolute relative difference<br />

Mean weighted absolute error<br />

Mean weighted error<br />

Mean weighted relative error<br />

Standardized total error<br />

Weighted absolute difference<br />

GENERAL DISTANCE STATISTICS<br />

1<br />

a − b<br />

n n<br />

ij ij<br />

MARD = 2 ∑∑ n i= 1 j= 1 bij<br />

n n 1<br />

MWAE = w a − b<br />

∑ ∑<br />

j ij ij<br />

n j= 1 i=<br />

1<br />

1<br />

MWE = w a −b<br />

n n<br />

∑ j∑ ( ij ij)<br />

n j= 1 i=<br />

1<br />

( ) 2 2<br />

MWE 0<br />

ω = − + σ<br />

MWE MWE<br />

n 1<br />

MWRE = ∑ w<br />

n<br />

j=<br />

1<br />

n<br />

∑(<br />

aij − bij<br />

)<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

j n<br />

∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

b<br />

( ) 2 2<br />

MWRE 0<br />

ω = − + σ<br />

MWRE MWRE<br />

WAD =<br />

STE =<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

INFORMATION-BASED STATISTICS<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

ij ij<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

n n<br />

∑∑<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

a − b<br />

b<br />

ij<br />

ij<br />

( )<br />

a − b a + b<br />

n n<br />

∑∑(<br />

aij + bij)<br />

i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

ij ij ij ij<br />

n n<br />

ij<br />

: = ∑∑ log<br />

i= 1 j= 1 bij<br />

I A B a<br />

Information content index ( ) ij 2<br />

Note: ij a are estimated coefficients; ij b are survey-based coefficients; w j are proportions <strong>of</strong> employment <strong>of</strong><br />

sector j .<br />

a<br />

95


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Morrison and Smith (1974), on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> I-O table constructed by survey<br />

for <strong>the</strong> City <strong>of</strong> Peterborough (UK), compare <strong>the</strong> effectiveness <strong>of</strong> several mechanical<br />

methods to derive regional coefficients (RAS, SLQ, CILQ, Supply-Demand<br />

Pool, PLQ, RLQ). By calculating several statistical tests (mean absolute difference,<br />

correlation coefficient, mean similarity index, chi-square test, information<br />

content) measuring differences between matrices, <strong>the</strong>y demonstrate, that <strong>the</strong> RAS<br />

technique produces a superior simulation. Among <strong>the</strong> purely nonsurvey methods,<br />

<strong>the</strong>y note that SLQ is <strong>the</strong> best <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> methods, followed by PLQ, Supply-demand<br />

pool, RLQ and, lastly, CILQ, producing <strong>the</strong> poorest simulations. They also find<br />

that RAS allows deriving income multipliers <strong>of</strong> type I and II which are much<br />

closer to <strong>the</strong> survey-based multipliers, followed by SLQ, CILQ and Supplydemand<br />

pool. In every case, all methods tend to overestimate <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> multipliers.<br />

Therefore, <strong>the</strong>y conclude that <strong>the</strong> RAS technique, being based on survey<br />

data, provides superior results both in terms <strong>of</strong> coefficients and multipliers. However,<br />

in <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> survey material, <strong>the</strong>y note that SLQ is <strong>the</strong> best way to derive<br />

a regional I-O table.<br />

Butterfield and Mules (1980) test performances <strong>of</strong> three methods: RAS, RAS<br />

applied to <strong>the</strong> entire table and a naïve method consisting <strong>of</strong> adjusting national<br />

flows so that <strong>the</strong>ir totals agree with sectoral outputs. They compare a Western<br />

Australia survey table with three tables estimated from Australian table using <strong>the</strong><br />

previously mentioned methods on a column by column basis. For this objective,<br />

<strong>the</strong>y adopt a specific testing procedure. First, <strong>the</strong>y make a non-parametric test to<br />

see if <strong>the</strong>re is consistent over- or under-estimation. Then, <strong>the</strong>y perform a test<br />

based on regression <strong>analysis</strong>. Finally, <strong>the</strong>y use both <strong>the</strong> chi-square contingency table<br />

test <strong>of</strong> size distribution <strong>of</strong> coefficients and mean and mode <strong>of</strong> absolute distance<br />

measure (including standardised absolute difference). They find that all<br />

methods produce acceptable estimates for larger coefficients ra<strong>the</strong>r than smaller<br />

coefficients. However, RAS performs better than <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs. They also compare<br />

output multipliers using <strong>the</strong> mean absolute difference (MAD) and Pearson’s correlation<br />

coefficient. They find that RAS is superior to “full” RAS and <strong>the</strong> naïve<br />

method, again.<br />

Eskelinen and Suorsa (1980) evaluate performances <strong>of</strong> SLQ, CILQ and an iterative<br />

procedure based on <strong>the</strong> knowledge <strong>of</strong> regional aggregate data, comparing<br />

<strong>the</strong>se methods with a 1970 survey input-output table <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> North Karelian in<br />

Finland. Measuring distances among matrices by <strong>the</strong> ratio between <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

absolute values <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> deviations <strong>of</strong> individual flows and survey-based total flows,<br />

<strong>the</strong>y find that SLQ performs better, followed by <strong>the</strong> iterative procedure and CILQ.<br />

Comparing matrices also on a row and a column basis, <strong>the</strong>y conclude that: (a)<br />

non-survey methods do not systematically overestimate <strong>the</strong> local input use; (b) <strong>the</strong><br />

SLQ deviates from <strong>the</strong> survey-based table less than <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r non-survey methods;<br />

96


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

(c) distances among methods are smaller than those existing between non-surveybased<br />

and survey-based tables.<br />

Sawyer and Miller (1983) compare <strong>the</strong> 1972 Washington survey-based table<br />

with regional tables derived from <strong>the</strong> 1967 US table using SLQ, SDP and RAS.<br />

They employ <strong>the</strong> mean absolute difference (MAD), <strong>the</strong> mean absolute difference<br />

as a percentage <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> mean coefficient and <strong>the</strong> mean absolute relative difference<br />

(MARD) as comparison measures. First, <strong>the</strong>y find that RAS provides <strong>the</strong> best estimates<br />

<strong>of</strong> direct coefficients, inverse coefficients and type I and II value-added<br />

multipliers. Second, both SDP and SLQ tend to overestimate multipliers. Third,<br />

SDP provides less accurate estimates than SLQ. Fourth, estimates that are much<br />

nearer <strong>the</strong> survey-based ones are achieved applying, prior to <strong>the</strong> aggregation, a<br />

version <strong>of</strong> SLQ adjusted by <strong>the</strong> “fabrication effect” and balanced by using survey<br />

export data. In addition, using survey-based coefficients <strong>of</strong> value added, more improvements<br />

in terms <strong>of</strong> multipliers are gained. They conclude that, in order to derive<br />

as reliable estimates as those obtained by hybrid methods like RAS, <strong>the</strong> SLQ<br />

approach has to be applied at an high level <strong>of</strong> sectoral disaggregation, using reliable<br />

estimates <strong>of</strong> value added for calculating multipliers and a version <strong>of</strong> SLQ adjusted<br />

to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional fabrication effect and balanced by reliable<br />

export and import data.<br />

Willis (1987) compares two survey-based input-output tables <strong>of</strong> Wales (dated<br />

from 1968) and Staffordshire (dated from 1977) with non-survey tables obtained<br />

by using three methods: <strong>the</strong> original version <strong>of</strong> GRIT without superior data, GRIT<br />

with superior data related to imports and GRIT with superior data related to final<br />

demand (in this case adjustment is made by RAS). From comparisons, it emerges<br />

that <strong>the</strong> versions <strong>of</strong> GRIT incorporating superior data produce average multipliers<br />

which are closer to survey-based multipliers than those obtained by GRIT without<br />

exogenous information. However, at a sector level, <strong>the</strong> insertion <strong>of</strong> superior data<br />

does not improve <strong>the</strong> closeness to survey-based multipliers. In all cases, <strong>the</strong>re is a<br />

general tendency to overestimate <strong>impact</strong>s, which is attributed to <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> SLQ<br />

within GRIT.<br />

Strassoldo (1988) mentions a study <strong>of</strong> Mogorovich (1987) who compares a<br />

1978 direct matrix constructed for <strong>the</strong> Italian Toscana region with various matrices<br />

constructed by indirect methods: RAS, SDP, PLQ, SLQ, RND, CILQ. From<br />

this study, it emerges that RAS is superior, but this superiority is not very evident.<br />

SDP outperforms location quotients, ranking on <strong>the</strong> second position. Among location<br />

quotients, PLQ is <strong>the</strong> best whilst CILQ ranks on <strong>the</strong> last position. Indices that<br />

are used as comparison tools are mean absolute difference, chi-square statistic, information<br />

content, correlation coefficient.<br />

Harris and Liu (1998) compare <strong>the</strong> survey-based 1989 Scottish table with tables<br />

obtained by using SLQ and a hybrid method that substantially coincides with<br />

<strong>the</strong> RAS technique. Survey data are borrowed from <strong>the</strong> survey-based table and are<br />

97


Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

concerned with total intermediate inputs, total sales, imports, exports and income<br />

from employment. They show that <strong>the</strong> hybrid approach produces estimates <strong>of</strong> exports<br />

which are 0.9% smaller and estimates <strong>of</strong> imports which are 2.4% larger than<br />

<strong>the</strong> survey-based figures. The LQ approach produces estimates that are 38% and<br />

49% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> survey-based figures, respectively. They deduce that <strong>the</strong> LQ approach<br />

considerably overestimates interindustry transactions and subsequently any estimates<br />

<strong>of</strong> multipliers. By using regression techniques to compare <strong>the</strong> different tables,<br />

<strong>the</strong>y find that <strong>the</strong> hybrid method reproduces <strong>the</strong> survey-based table much<br />

better than <strong>the</strong> LQ approach. Ultimately, <strong>the</strong>y conclude that <strong>the</strong> hybrid approach<br />

has to be preferred.<br />

Gilchrist and Louis (1999) compare coefficients, obtained applying RAS and<br />

an extended version <strong>of</strong> RAS (TRAS) to a national table, with 1984 Canadian provincial<br />

I-O tables. Using regression test, <strong>the</strong>y find that TRAS, incorporating more<br />

information than that used by RAS, demonstrates to be superior.<br />

Flegg and Webber (2000), testing <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis on <strong>the</strong> importance <strong>of</strong> regional<br />

specialization in deriving regional coefficients, compare coefficients derived by<br />

adjusted (taking account <strong>of</strong> regional specialization) and unadjusted (original) versions<br />

<strong>of</strong> FLQ, CILQ and SLQ to survey-based regional coefficients calculated<br />

from <strong>the</strong> input-output table for Scotland in 1989. For this purpose, <strong>the</strong>y apply<br />

some statistical tests to measure differences between matrices (mean weighted error,<br />

mean weighted absolute error, mean weighted relative error, weighted chisquare<br />

statistic, bias and variance <strong>of</strong> both mean weighted error and mean weighted<br />

relative error). They show that FLQ outperforms both SLQ and CILQ but it also<br />

emerges that <strong>the</strong> standard version <strong>of</strong> SLQ almost always outperforms <strong>the</strong> standard<br />

version <strong>of</strong> CILQ.<br />

4.4 Teaching from empirical studies<br />

Results from empirical evidence cannot be considered conclusive since empirical<br />

studies are still very few and <strong>the</strong> existing ones take only account <strong>of</strong> different<br />

batteries <strong>of</strong> indirect methods and different measures <strong>of</strong> comparison. However, a<br />

common result from most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se studies is that <strong>the</strong> RAS technique is <strong>the</strong> best<br />

method to simulate a regional I-O table derived from survey, albeit it is not certain<br />

that RAS is <strong>the</strong> best one among hybrid methods. Instead, <strong>of</strong> purely non-survey<br />

methods, SLQ seems to be <strong>the</strong> most effective method, despite <strong>the</strong>re is not full<br />

judgement unanimity among studies. FLQ is a promising variant since it demonstrated<br />

to outperform <strong>the</strong> traditional location quotients. Never<strong>the</strong>less, little work<br />

has been done to validate <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> parameter on which FLQ is based and<br />

<strong>the</strong>refore <strong>the</strong> value suggested by <strong>the</strong> authors could not be appropriate for all regions.<br />

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Performances <strong>of</strong> Regionalization Methods<br />

Anyway, <strong>the</strong> fact that empirical evidence has shown that <strong>the</strong> simplest version<br />

<strong>of</strong> location quotients performs better than o<strong>the</strong>r methods requiring more information,<br />

like Supply-demand pool, is an advantage. This is because data requested by<br />

traditional location quotients (employment data) are <strong>of</strong>ten <strong>the</strong> only data that are<br />

available at <strong>the</strong> highest level <strong>of</strong> sector disaggregation and at both regional and national<br />

level.<br />

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5 An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using<br />

Different Regionalization Methods<br />

5.1 Introduction<br />

The main objective <strong>of</strong> this chapter is to evaluate <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> to <strong>the</strong> approach<br />

used for deriving regional tables. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>the</strong> aim is to verify how<br />

different or similar results in terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> are when <strong>the</strong> I-O model, used to estimate<br />

<strong>impact</strong>, is constructed on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> different regionalization methods.<br />

Impact to be evaluated will be <strong>impact</strong> in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment<br />

on <strong>the</strong> overall economy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Marche region coming from <strong>the</strong> Common Agricultural<br />

Policy (CAP) during <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006. In this regard, policy <strong>analysis</strong><br />

will be limited to <strong>the</strong> effects from intervention-price reduction on <strong>the</strong> cereal market.<br />

The <strong>analysis</strong> will be articulated in <strong>the</strong> following way. In <strong>the</strong> second paragraph,<br />

importance <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal market in <strong>the</strong> Marche region will be pointed out. The<br />

third paragraph will be dedicated to illustrate briefly <strong>the</strong> history <strong>of</strong> CAP focusing<br />

on policy <strong>reform</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000 and <strong>the</strong> mid-term review on <strong>the</strong> cereal<br />

market. In <strong>the</strong> forth paragraph, methodology to assess policy <strong>impact</strong> will be described.<br />

Lastly, in <strong>the</strong> sixth paragraph, an <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> will be<br />

carried out.<br />

5.2 The situation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal sector in <strong>the</strong> Marche region<br />

From <strong>the</strong> agricultural standpoint, <strong>the</strong> Marche region has been defined as a region<br />

based on cereals (Solustri, 2000). In effect, on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> 1999 data, it<br />

emerges that cereals absorb <strong>the</strong> highest share <strong>of</strong> land used for agricultural purposes<br />

and show a high index <strong>of</strong> specialization compared to <strong>the</strong> national situation.<br />

Within cereals, durum wheat represents <strong>the</strong> most important crop (Tab. 5.1).


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

102<br />

Tab. 5.1 – Land distribution among different crops, 1999<br />

Marche Italy<br />

Hectares (000) % Hectares (000) %<br />

Marche SI*<br />

Cereals 236 40.7 3,959 23.3 1.8<br />

S<strong>of</strong>t wheat 40 6.9 699 4.1 1.7<br />

Durum wheat 137 23.7 1,691 10.0 2.4<br />

Maize 15 2.6 1,028 6.1 0.4<br />

Forage 201 34.8 6,716 39.5 0.9<br />

Industrial crops 77 13.4 791 4.7 2.9<br />

Sugar beet 42 7.2 283 1.7 4.4<br />

Soya 0 0.1 247 1.5 0.0<br />

Sunflower 35 6.1 210 1.2 4.9<br />

Rapeseed 0 0.0 51 0.3 0.0<br />

Potatoes and vegetables 20 3.5 1,043 6.1 0.6<br />

Permanent crops 39 6.8 3,368 19.8 0.3<br />

TOTAL 574 100.0 16,984 100.0 1.0<br />

* SI = index <strong>of</strong> specialization obtained as ( S<br />

R<br />

i<br />

tares <strong>of</strong> land used and i is <strong>the</strong> type <strong>of</strong> crop<br />

S<br />

R) N ( S<br />

i<br />

S<br />

N)<br />

where R is <strong>the</strong> Marche region N is Italy, S expresses hec-<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from ISTAT<br />

Factors that have contributed to <strong>the</strong> development <strong>of</strong> cereals in <strong>the</strong> Marche region<br />

can be identified in <strong>the</strong> following ones: (a) climatic and morphological conditions;<br />

(b) <strong>the</strong> European agricultural policy by means <strong>of</strong> compensations and price<br />

support; (c) wide presence <strong>of</strong> structures for trading and processing cereals<br />

throughout <strong>the</strong> regional territory; (d) production <strong>of</strong> quality durum wheat giving<br />

regional farmers a strong competitive advantage in satisfying requirements from<br />

processing industry in comparison with o<strong>the</strong>r regions (Regione Marche, 2000).<br />

However, in spite <strong>of</strong> emphasis given to cereals by regional studies, cereals are<br />

not <strong>the</strong> only prevailing crop. In fact, in terms <strong>of</strong> specialization related to both used<br />

land and production, industrial crops are <strong>the</strong> most important ones. Among industrial<br />

crops, sugar beet and sunflower are <strong>the</strong> predominant ones (Tab. 5.1, Tab.<br />

5.2). Moreover, in terms <strong>of</strong> weight <strong>of</strong> production, livestock has <strong>the</strong> highest share<br />

on total output. In any case, both in terms <strong>of</strong> specialization and weight <strong>of</strong> production,<br />

cereals represent <strong>the</strong> second more important crops.


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Tab. 5.2 – Production at basic prices*, 1999 (billion <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Marche Italy<br />

Output % Output %<br />

Marche SI**<br />

Cereals 439 29.0 8,820 14.9 1.9<br />

S<strong>of</strong>t wheat 71 4.7 1,448 2.4 1.9<br />

Durum wheat 262 17.3 2,173 3.7 4.7<br />

Barley 63 4.1 599 1.0 4.1<br />

Rice 0 0 906 1.5 0.0<br />

Local maize 0 0 2 0.0 0.0<br />

Hybrid maize 43 2.8 3,693 6.2 0.5<br />

Potatoes and vegetables 193 12.7 8,431 14.2 0.9<br />

Industrial crops 226 14.9 2,753 4.6 3.2<br />

Sugar beet 156 10.3 1,129 1.9 5.4<br />

Tobacco 1 0.1 632 1.1 0.1<br />

Sunflower 68 4.5 377 0.6 7.1<br />

Soya 1 0.1 614 1.0 0.1<br />

Permanent crops 186 12.3 15,563 26.3 0.5<br />

Livestock 470 31.1 23,659 39.9 0.8<br />

TOTAL*** 1,513 100.0 59,226 100.0 1.0<br />

* Production at basic prices includes subsidies and excludes taxes<br />

** SI = index <strong>of</strong> specialization obtained as ( P<br />

R R N N<br />

i<br />

P ) ( P<br />

i<br />

P ) where R is <strong>the</strong> Marche region N is Italy, P is production<br />

and i is <strong>the</strong> type <strong>of</strong> crop<br />

*** Forage is not considered<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from ISTAT<br />

From 1990 to 1999, hectares destined to cereals kept ra<strong>the</strong>r constant, although<br />

a slight decrease can be noticed (Fig. 5.1). The biggest decrease occurred in <strong>the</strong><br />

period 1994-1996, after that a slight recovery happened. This latter was probably<br />

due to <strong>the</strong> increasing diminution <strong>of</strong> aids to oilseeds, which led farmers to move to<br />

cereals. The trend noticed for cereals did not regard all crops within cereals uniformly.<br />

The land used for durum wheat increased whilst that destined to s<strong>of</strong>t<br />

wheat considerably decreased. This opposed tendency may be explained by advantages<br />

related to farming durum wheat which benefited from both bigger compensations<br />

than o<strong>the</strong>r cereals and a favourable price trend. As for <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r cereals,<br />

a small increase <strong>of</strong> barley-used land occurred, whilst <strong>the</strong> land used for <strong>the</strong> remaining<br />

cereals kept nearly constant.<br />

In terms <strong>of</strong> production, during <strong>the</strong> 90s, <strong>the</strong> trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal output was about<br />

constant until 1994 (Fig. 5.2). From 1994 to 1997, output decreased, after that a<br />

sudden rise occurred. This increase depended on <strong>the</strong> growth <strong>of</strong> durum wheat and,<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

to a less extent, <strong>of</strong> maize and barley, which was partly balanced by a decrease in<br />

s<strong>of</strong>t wheat.<br />

As far as yield is concerned, <strong>the</strong> yield <strong>of</strong> all cereals, in spite <strong>of</strong> fluctuation<br />

mostly regarding sorghum and maize, kept constant (Fig. 5.3). Maize and sorghum<br />

showed <strong>the</strong> highest yields, whilst oat registered <strong>the</strong> lowest one. Durum<br />

wheat, barley, s<strong>of</strong>t wheat were instead characterized by similar and constant yield<br />

values. This stagnation <strong>of</strong> yields can be related to policy orientation to supply restraint.<br />

Definitively, from <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> weight on local production, land used for agricultural<br />

purposes and specialization indices, it emerges that <strong>the</strong> cereal production<br />

holds a non-neglectable importance in <strong>the</strong> Marche region. Accordingly, any<br />

policy or policy change aimed at influencing or regulating this market can produce<br />

significant effects.<br />

Hectares (000)<br />

104<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

Fig. 5.1 – Trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> land used for cereals, Marche, 1990-1999<br />

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from ISTAT<br />

Cereals<br />

Durum wheat<br />

S<strong>of</strong>t wheat<br />

Barley<br />

Oat<br />

Maize<br />

Sorghum


Billion <strong>of</strong> Lire<br />

quintals per hectare<br />

An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Fig. 5.2 – Trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal output, Marche, 1990-99 (1990 constant prices)<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

0<br />

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from ISTAT<br />

Fig. 5.3 – Trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal yield, Marche, 1990-99<br />

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from ISTAT<br />

Cereals<br />

S<strong>of</strong>t wheat<br />

Durum wheat<br />

Barley<br />

Maize<br />

Durum wheat<br />

S<strong>of</strong>t wheat<br />

Barley<br />

Maize<br />

Oat<br />

Sorghum<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

5.3 The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and <strong>the</strong> cereal market: a<br />

brief overview<br />

5.3.1 From CAP’s institution to <strong>the</strong> Mac Sharry Reform<br />

The Common Agricultural Policy was instituted in <strong>the</strong> 1960s for different reasons:<br />

reducing disparities among European countries, increasing agricultural productivity,<br />

improving farmers’ incomes, stabilising markets, guaranteeing autosupplying<br />

in order to reduce dependence from outside and assuring reasonable<br />

prices to consumers (Vieri, 1994). These objectives were substantially pursued by<br />

protectionist mechanisms and aids incorporated in prices and proportional to production.<br />

Coupling <strong>of</strong> support with production led to accumulation <strong>of</strong> surplus, distortion<br />

effects on internal and international markets and increasing disparities<br />

among farmers since proportional support mainly favoured bigger farmers in addition<br />

to landowners. Moreover, support was concentrated on high-<strong>cap</strong>ital-intensity<br />

production (such as cereals and industrial crops) leading farmers to increase production<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se commodities. Even regions which were not naturally suited to<br />

this kind <strong>of</strong> production (<strong>the</strong> Italian Marche region is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m) were pushed to<br />

specialize in <strong>cap</strong>ital-intensive production systems, raising environmental problems<br />

and increasing regional disparities (Bonfiglio, 2000).<br />

The problems related to expenses due to surplus, market distortion and a manifest<br />

incoherence with objectives <strong>of</strong> Rome Treaty were <strong>the</strong> main reasons for <strong>the</strong> introduction<br />

<strong>of</strong> Mac Sharry <strong>reform</strong> in 1992. This <strong>reform</strong> significantly reduced price<br />

support but, to compensate consequent income losses, compensations per hectare<br />

were introduced, distinguishing a regime for small producers, who could directly<br />

accede to aids, from a regime for big producers, for whom accessibility to aids<br />

was subordinated to retirement <strong>of</strong> part <strong>of</strong> used land from production (set-aside).<br />

Unfortunately, <strong>the</strong> <strong>reform</strong> did not produce <strong>the</strong> desired effects. Compensations and<br />

growth <strong>of</strong> international prices induced farmers to increase production <strong>of</strong> supported<br />

commodities and expenditure related to surplus continued to rise.<br />

5.3.2 Agenda 2000<br />

In 1999, a fur<strong>the</strong>r agricultural <strong>reform</strong>, contained within Agenda 2000, was introduced.<br />

Agenda 2000 is an action programme whose objectives are to streng<strong>the</strong>n<br />

Community policies and to give <strong>the</strong> European Union a new financial framework<br />

for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-06 with a view to enlargement (European Commission, 1999).<br />

It covers four main, closely related areas: <strong>the</strong> <strong>reform</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> common agricultural<br />

policy, structural policy <strong>reform</strong>, <strong>the</strong> pre-accession instruments and <strong>the</strong> new financial<br />

framework.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

The main objective <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> agricultural <strong>reform</strong> is to continue <strong>the</strong> <strong>reform</strong> process<br />

along <strong>the</strong> lines <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> changes made in 1992, improving <strong>the</strong> European competitiveness<br />

on markets, taking great account <strong>of</strong> environmental considerations, ensuring<br />

fair income for farmers, simplifying legislation and decentralising <strong>the</strong> application<br />

<strong>of</strong> legislation, improving food safety, streng<strong>the</strong>ning <strong>the</strong> Union’s position in<br />

<strong>the</strong> new round <strong>of</strong> WTO negotiations and stabilising agricultural spending.<br />

These objectives are pursued by two measures: modifications <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> common<br />

organisations <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> markets in wine, arable crops, beef and veal and milk and,<br />

secondly, measures <strong>of</strong> a more horizontal nature (cross-compliance by which direct<br />

aids are bounded to <strong>the</strong> respect <strong>of</strong> environmental requirements and decentralized<br />

finance administration in favour <strong>of</strong> Member States).<br />

As for cereals 16 , modifications are related to a reduction <strong>of</strong> intervention price<br />

(guaranteed minimum price at which commodities are sold if market price goes<br />

under a given level) by 15% in two equal steps <strong>of</strong> 7.5%, starting in <strong>the</strong> 2000/2001<br />

marketing year, bringing it down from 119.19€ to 110.25€ per tonne in <strong>the</strong><br />

2000/01 marketing year and to 101.31€ per tonne from <strong>the</strong> 2001/02 marketing<br />

year.<br />

To compensate <strong>the</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> income caused by <strong>the</strong> reduction in <strong>the</strong> market support<br />

prices, regionally differentiated compensatory payments are introduced. Their<br />

amount is fixed at 58.67 € per tonne (multiplied by <strong>the</strong> historical regional reference<br />

yield for cereals expressed in tonnes per hectare) in <strong>the</strong> 2000/01 marketing<br />

year and at 63 € per tonne from <strong>the</strong> successive year marketing onwards. For Italy,<br />

<strong>the</strong> historical reference yield for cereals has been increased and fixed at 3.9 tonne<br />

per hectare. All Italian regions are divided in homogenous zones with different<br />

yields for maize and o<strong>the</strong>r cereals. With reference to <strong>the</strong> Marche region 17 , <strong>the</strong> average<br />

yield for maize is 6.5 tonne per hectare, while for o<strong>the</strong>r cereals is 3.7.<br />

A special treatment is reserved to durum wheat in particular zones. It is established<br />

that <strong>the</strong>se crops benefit from a supplementary aid <strong>of</strong> 344.5 € per hectare in<br />

traditional zones (<strong>the</strong> Marche region is included in this category) and from a specific<br />

aid <strong>of</strong> 138.9 € per hectare in zones where <strong>the</strong> production is “wellestablished”<br />

within <strong>the</strong> limit <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Maximum Guaranteed Areas (MGA). MGA<br />

has been fixed at 1,646,000 hectares for Italy. Supplements are conditioned on <strong>the</strong><br />

use <strong>of</strong> certified seeds and on <strong>the</strong> respect <strong>of</strong> MGA. Overcoming <strong>of</strong> MGA leads to a<br />

decrease <strong>of</strong> premium proportional to <strong>the</strong> entity <strong>of</strong> overcoming itself. The possibility<br />

<strong>of</strong> dividing national MGA into regional areas is given to member states. Italy<br />

has taken this possibility and a limit <strong>of</strong> 125,172 hectares has been established for<br />

<strong>the</strong> Marche region. So, in <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> overcoming <strong>of</strong> national MGA, penalties are<br />

16 Regulation (EC) no. 1253/1999.<br />

17 Ministerial Act 4 th April 2000.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

attributed to regions overcoming <strong>the</strong>ir limits after distributing surfaces, which do<br />

not reach regional limits, among regions that do not respect <strong>the</strong>se limits.<br />

For all arable crops 18 , <strong>the</strong> <strong>reform</strong> establishes a rate <strong>of</strong> compulsory set-aside<br />

fixed at 10% for all period <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000. The percentage <strong>of</strong> land to be set aside<br />

by producers is to be calculated as a proportion <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir areas under arable crops.<br />

The payment <strong>of</strong> direct aids is subject to <strong>the</strong> obligation <strong>of</strong> set-aside and is also<br />

granted to area set aside. The average reference yield for calculating direct payments<br />

related to set-aside in favour <strong>of</strong> farms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Marche region is fixed at 3.9<br />

tonne per hectare. No set-aside requirements are imposed on small producers<br />

whose claim for area payments is below a certain level (equivalent to production<br />

<strong>of</strong> 92 tonnes <strong>of</strong> cereals).<br />

5.3.3 The Mid-term Review <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000<br />

In 2003, <strong>the</strong> Council <strong>of</strong> Agriculture Ministers <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> European Union approved<br />

a <strong>reform</strong> <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000, known as Mid-term Review and based on <strong>the</strong> Commission<br />

proposals. In line with <strong>the</strong> overall objectives <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000, this <strong>reform</strong><br />

will be introduced from 2004 and 2005, completing <strong>the</strong> <strong>reform</strong> process started<br />

with Agenda 2000 (European Commission, 2003). The key elements <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>reform</strong><br />

are:<br />

• Helping EU farmers to become more market-oriented and competitive on<br />

markets, while receiving reasonable income support. This is done by<br />

i. <strong>the</strong> introduction <strong>of</strong> a single payment scheme for EU farmers, independent<br />

(“decoupled”) from production. This payment will replace<br />

most <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> direct aid payments to farmers currently <strong>of</strong>fered. The<br />

relevant amount will be calculated dividing direct aids which a<br />

farmer received in a reference period (from 2000 to 2002) by <strong>the</strong><br />

number <strong>of</strong> hectares which gave rise to this amount (including forage<br />

area) in <strong>the</strong> reference years. The single payments scheme will come<br />

into operation in 2005, but Member States may delay implementation<br />

up to 2007. But, by 2007 at <strong>the</strong> latest, all Member States should<br />

introduce <strong>the</strong> single payment scheme. Member States may decide to<br />

maintain a proportion <strong>of</strong> direct aids to farmers (partial decoupling),<br />

in <strong>the</strong> case in which <strong>the</strong>re might be disturbance to agricultural markets<br />

or abandonment <strong>of</strong> production as a result <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> move to <strong>the</strong> single<br />

payment scheme.<br />

ii. linking <strong>the</strong> single payment scheme to environmental and quality<br />

conditions (“cross-compliance”).<br />

18 Regulation (EC) no. 1251/99.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

• Streng<strong>the</strong>ning rural development policy by shifting more money to this<br />

policy; by introducing new measures to promote environment and quality;<br />

by helping farmers to meet new EU standards; by a reduction in direct<br />

payments (“modulation”) for bigger farms to finance <strong>the</strong> new rural development<br />

policy.<br />

• Revising <strong>the</strong> market support parts <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> CAP by modifications in <strong>the</strong> intervention<br />

mechanism <strong>of</strong> sectors <strong>of</strong> structural imbalance (butter, rye and<br />

rice); by adjusting support mechanisms in o<strong>the</strong>r sectors (durum wheat,<br />

drying aids, starch potatoes, dired fodder, nuts); by a mechanism for financial<br />

discipline ensuring that <strong>the</strong> farm budget fixed until 2013 is not overshot.<br />

As for <strong>the</strong> cereal sector, <strong>the</strong> Mid-term Review establishes that intervention<br />

price and direct payment <strong>of</strong> 63€ per ton will be retained, but monthly increments<br />

will be reduced by 50%. Rye has been excluded from <strong>the</strong> intervention system but<br />

Member States whose rye production is very significant can receive an additional<br />

10% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> modulation money raised in <strong>the</strong> Member State concerned in order to<br />

assist, within <strong>the</strong> framework <strong>of</strong> rural development measures, rye producing regions.<br />

From 2005, or at <strong>the</strong> latest from 2007, a single payment scheme will be applied.<br />

However, Member States may retain 25% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> single payment scheme or,<br />

alternatively, up to 40% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> supplementary durum wheat aid in order to continue<br />

<strong>the</strong> existing coupled per hectare payments up to <strong>the</strong> above-mentioned percentage<br />

levels.<br />

With reference to durum wheat, <strong>the</strong> supplement in traditional production zones<br />

will be paid independently from production from 2005. As mentioned before,<br />

<strong>the</strong>re is <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> linking 40% <strong>of</strong> this premium to production. It will be<br />

fixed at 313€/ha in 2004, 291€/ha in 2005 and 285€/ha from 2006 onwards and<br />

included in <strong>the</strong> single payment scheme. The specific aid for o<strong>the</strong>r regions where<br />

durum wheat is supported, currently set at 138.9 €/ha, will be phased out. The cuts<br />

will be implemented over three years, starting in 2004 (93€/ha in 2004, 46€/ha in<br />

2005 and zero <strong>the</strong>reafter). From 2004/05, in order to improve quality <strong>of</strong> durum<br />

wheat, it has been decided to introduce a special premium <strong>of</strong> 40€/ton to be given<br />

to farmers in traditional zones. The premium will be conditioned on <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong><br />

certified seeds.<br />

As for set-aside, farmers will receive set-aside entitlements calculated on <strong>the</strong><br />

basis <strong>of</strong> historic references. Set-aside entitlements will be activated only if accompanied<br />

by an eligible hectare put into set-aside. Set-aside areas must cover at<br />

least 0.1 hectares in size and be at least 10 metres wide. For justified environmental<br />

reasons a width <strong>of</strong> 5 metres may be accepted.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Definitively, <strong>the</strong> mid-term review does not modify decisions taken with<br />

Agenda 2000 with regard to intervention price on <strong>the</strong> cereal market. A value <strong>of</strong><br />

101.31 € per tonne is maintained from 2003 to 2006.<br />

110<br />

Tab. 5.3 – Summary <strong>of</strong> Agenda 2000 and <strong>the</strong> Mid-term Review – <strong>the</strong> cereal market<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006<br />

Intervention price (Euro per tonne) 110.25 101.31 101.31 101.31 101.31 101.31 101.31<br />

Direct Payments (Euro per tonne) 58.67 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00<br />

DURUM WHEAT<br />

Aid for traditional zones (Euro per ha) 344.50 344.50 344.50 344.50 313 291 285<br />

Specific Aid for o<strong>the</strong>r zones (Euro per ha) 138.90 138.90 138.90 138.9 93 46 0<br />

Special quality premium (Euro per tonne) - - - - 40 40 40<br />

Set Aside (Euro per tonne) 58.67 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00 63.00<br />

* In 2005 or at <strong>the</strong> latest in 2007, direct payments will be decoupled and included in a single payment scheme.<br />

Alternatively, a Member State may decide ei<strong>the</strong>r keeping 25% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se payments coupled or keeping 40% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

supplement granted to durum wheat in traditional zones linked to production.<br />

Source: European Commission, 1999, 2003<br />

5.4 Methodology to assess policy <strong>impact</strong><br />

To estimate policy <strong>impact</strong> produced by a reduction <strong>of</strong> intervention price in <strong>the</strong><br />

cereal market for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006 in <strong>the</strong> Italian Marche region, we will adopt<br />

two models to be applied sequentially: an econometric model and an I-O model.<br />

The econometric model based on a pr<strong>of</strong>it function will be developed to evaluate<br />

<strong>the</strong> farmers’ responsiveness in terms <strong>of</strong> production levels to price changes. By<br />

means <strong>of</strong> price elasticities calculated by econometric model, it will be possible to<br />

assess for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006, direct <strong>impact</strong> on farmers’ output, through price<br />

reduction.<br />

Estimation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong> on <strong>the</strong> regional economy induced by policy<br />

will be made by a modified version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> traditional I-O model (<strong>the</strong> closed mixedvariable<br />

I-O model) in order to evaluate total effects (indirect, direct and induced)<br />

from variation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal output 19 .<br />

19 It would have been also possible to estimate <strong>impact</strong> generated by total payments to farmers in terms <strong>of</strong> direct<br />

payments and supplementary aids. One way to model by I-O <strong>analysis</strong> effects produced by total payments<br />

is to translate payments into corresponding consumption. This could be made multiplying total payments (income)<br />

by ratio between consumption and income (deduced from regional I-O tables) and distributing proportionally<br />

<strong>the</strong> resulting consumption among sectors. Consumption is a component <strong>of</strong> final demand in I-O<br />

framework. Therefore, <strong>impact</strong> from payments can be assessed as <strong>impact</strong> from final demand variation using a<br />

traditional I-O model. This <strong>impact</strong> in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment would have been positive and


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Overall <strong>impact</strong> will be determined starting from 16 different regional I-O tables<br />

constructed by various regionalization methods, both non-survey and hybrid<br />

methods. Then, in order to analyse <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> using different approaches<br />

for regionalising tables, methods will be compared in terms <strong>of</strong> both overall <strong>impact</strong><br />

and <strong>impact</strong> by sector in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment. Towards this<br />

aim, besides classical analyses (range, variability and ranking), two well-known<br />

statistical procedures will be applied: factor <strong>analysis</strong> and <strong>the</strong> multidimensional<br />

scaling procedure.<br />

5.4.1 Farmers’ responsiveness to price variations<br />

The objective is to evaluate <strong>the</strong> responsiveness <strong>of</strong> farmers towards variation <strong>of</strong><br />

intervention price related to cereals. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, we intend to verify how<br />

farmers react in terms <strong>of</strong> productive choices following to a reduction <strong>of</strong> institutional<br />

prices. For this objective, following <strong>the</strong> example <strong>of</strong> Doyle et al. (1997), we<br />

will develop a multi-input and multi-output model <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it maximization aimed<br />

at deriving price elasticities <strong>of</strong> demand for inputs and supply <strong>of</strong> outputs for farms<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Marche region.<br />

5.4.1.1 Theoretical economic model<br />

The basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> methodology used is <strong>the</strong> duality existing between <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it<br />

function, <strong>the</strong> transformation function and <strong>the</strong> production possibility set. This duality<br />

is widely discussed in <strong>the</strong> literature (see for instance Diewert, 1974 and Lau,<br />

1978) and will only be briefly described here. The pr<strong>of</strong>it function Π is defined in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> variable input and output prices and levels <strong>of</strong> fixed input, i.e.:<br />

( , )<br />

Π= f PZ<br />

(5.1)<br />

Where P and Z are vectors <strong>of</strong> prices and fixed inputs, respectively. The basic<br />

behavioural assumption required for using <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function to model production<br />

possibilities is that farmers are pr<strong>of</strong>it maximisers. In addition, it is required that<br />

output and variable input markets are competitive (i.e. prices are exogenous). If<br />

<strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function satisfies certain regularity conditions, it is dual <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> transformation<br />

function and its parameters contain sufficient information to describe <strong>the</strong><br />

farm’s production technology at pr<strong>of</strong>it maximising points in <strong>the</strong> production possi-<br />

would have compensated negative <strong>impact</strong> produced by a decrease in output <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal sector. Since our<br />

objective was not to model <strong>the</strong> whole policy but to evaluate <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> using different approaches for<br />

regionalizing I-O tables and considering that <strong>the</strong> implementation <strong>of</strong> a fur<strong>the</strong>r and different model could have<br />

complicated <strong>the</strong> reading <strong>of</strong> results, we decided to omit <strong>impact</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> related to payments. In any case, this<br />

part will be object <strong>of</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r research.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

bility set. The regularity conditions are that <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function be non-negative,<br />

continuous, twice differentiable, linear homogenous in prices and fixed inputs,<br />

convex in prices, concave in fixed inputs, increasing in output prices, decreasing<br />

in input prices and non-decreasing in fixed inputs (Diewert, 1974).<br />

Output supply and input demand functions, commonly referred to as netput functions<br />

(Varian, 1984), can be obtained by differentiating <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function with respect<br />

to netput prices (Hotelling’s Lemma):<br />

112<br />

∂Π<br />

Qi= ( P, Z)<br />

∂P<br />

i<br />

(5.2)<br />

where Q i are positive for outputs and negative for variable inputs. After choosing<br />

a functional form for <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function, which satisfies <strong>the</strong> regularity conditions<br />

for duality between <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it and transformation functions, <strong>the</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong><br />

equations (5.1) and (5.2) can be empirically estimated. These estimated parameters<br />

can be used to derive <strong>the</strong> elasticities describing production relationships <strong>of</strong><br />

multiple-input, multiple-output farms.<br />

5.4.1.2 Functional form<br />

The functional form used should not impose arbitrary restrictions on <strong>the</strong> parameters<br />

which describe production technology. The so-called flexible functional<br />

forms meet this requirement. A function, that is a second-order Taylor series approximation<br />

to an arbitrary function, is flexible. In this study, <strong>the</strong> transcendental<br />

logarithmic functional form (Christensen et al., 1973) is used. This is one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

most commonly used flexible functional forms for <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function.<br />

It takes <strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

1<br />

ln Π ( PZ , ) = + ln P+ (ln P)(ln P)<br />

+<br />

α0 v1 ∑αi i= 1<br />

i<br />

v1 v1<br />

∑∑αij<br />

2 i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

i j<br />

v2 ∑βkln v1 v2<br />

Zk + ∑∑βik(ln<br />

Pi)(ln Zk)<br />

+<br />

k= 1 i= 1 k=<br />

1<br />

v2 v2<br />

1<br />

+ ∑∑γ<br />

hk (ln<br />

2 h= 1 k=<br />

1<br />

Zh)(ln Zk)<br />

where 1 v denotes <strong>the</strong> total number <strong>of</strong> inputs and outputs, while 2<br />

number <strong>of</strong> quasi-fixed inputs.<br />

(5.3)<br />

v is <strong>the</strong> total


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

In order that <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function is dual <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> production function, equation (5.3)<br />

must satisfy <strong>the</strong> following conditions:<br />

v<br />

1<br />

∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

v<br />

1<br />

∑<br />

j=<br />

1<br />

v<br />

1<br />

∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

α = 1<br />

i<br />

α = 0,<br />

β<br />

ij<br />

ik<br />

=<br />

0,<br />

∀i<br />

∀k<br />

These conditions impose linear homogeneity in netput prices. This implies that<br />

pr<strong>of</strong>it will remain unchanged if all variable inputs and output prices increase by<br />

<strong>the</strong> same proportion.<br />

For <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function to be twice differentiable in netput prices <strong>the</strong> following<br />

symmetry restrictions must apply:<br />

α = α<br />

ij<br />

ji<br />

∀i,<br />

j<br />

Differentiating <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function with respect to netput prices, we obtain a set <strong>of</strong><br />

output supply and input demand equations:<br />

∂ln Π ∂Π<br />

=<br />

∂ln Pi ∂Pi i = 1, …,<br />

v<br />

Pi QP i i = = Si Π Π<br />

v1 v2<br />

= αi + ∑αij(ln Pj) + ∑βik(ln<br />

Zk)<br />

j= 1 k=<br />

1<br />

1<br />

(5.4)<br />

Where S i is share <strong>of</strong> netput i in total pr<strong>of</strong>it; it is positive for outputs and negative<br />

for inputs and it results that<br />

v1<br />

∑<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

S = 1.<br />

i<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

5.4.1.3 Elasticities<br />

The own-price and cross-price elasticities <strong>of</strong> demand for inputs and supply <strong>of</strong><br />

outputs can be derived from equation (5.4) (Sidhu and Baanante, 1981). Equation<br />

(5.4) can be rewritten as:<br />

114<br />

Π⎛∂ln Π⎞<br />

Qi = ⎜ ⎟<br />

Pi ⎝∂ln Pi<br />

⎠<br />

Thus,<br />

⎛∂ln Π⎞<br />

lnQi = ln Π− ln Pi<br />

+ ln ⎜ ⎟<br />

⎝∂ln Pi<br />

⎠<br />

The price elasticities <strong>of</strong> demand for inputs or supply <strong>of</strong> outputs are <strong>the</strong>refore:<br />

∂lnQi ∂ln Π ∂ln ⎛∂ln Π⎞<br />

ηii<br />

= = − 1+<br />

⎜ ⎟<br />

∂ln Pi ∂ln Pi ∂ln Pi ⎝∂ln Pi<br />

⎠<br />

αii<br />

= Si<br />

− 1+<br />

S<br />

The cross-price elasticities are:<br />

i<br />

∂lnQi ∂ln Π ∂ln ⎛∂ln Π⎞<br />

ηij<br />

= = + ⎜ ⎟<br />

∂ln Pj ∂ln Pj ∂ln Pj ⎝∂ln Pi<br />

⎠<br />

αij<br />

= S j +<br />

S<br />

i<br />

(5.5)<br />

(5.6)<br />

Where j<br />

i ≠ . The estimated elasticities are short-run in nature, because <strong>the</strong>y are<br />

derived assuming that some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> factor inputs are fixed. Thus, <strong>the</strong> predicted<br />

price responses do not take into account <strong>the</strong> ability <strong>of</strong> farms to adjust <strong>the</strong> fixed inputs<br />

in <strong>the</strong> long run.


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

5.4.1.4 Estimation<br />

Since <strong>the</strong> sample <strong>of</strong> firms used for estimation is made up <strong>of</strong> cross-section and<br />

time-series data 20 , to take account <strong>of</strong> possible structural shifts, a time trend (T ) is<br />

incorporated in <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function. Ultimately, for a situation involving n outputs<br />

and inputs and m quasi-fixed factors, <strong>the</strong> translog pr<strong>of</strong>it function estimated takes<br />

<strong>the</strong> following form:<br />

1<br />

ln Π = + ln + (ln )(ln ) +<br />

n n n<br />

t α0 ∑αiPit , ∑∑αijPit<br />

, Pjt<br />

,<br />

i= 1 2 i= 1 j=<br />

1<br />

m n m<br />

∑βkln Zk, t + ∑∑βik(ln<br />

Pi, t)(ln Zk,<br />

t)<br />

+<br />

k= 1 i= 1 k=<br />

1<br />

m m 1<br />

+ ∑∑γ<br />

hk (ln Zh, t )(ln Zk,<br />

t ) +<br />

2 h= 1 k=<br />

1<br />

n<br />

1 2<br />

+ δtT + δttT + ∑εi,<br />

t(ln Pi, t)<br />

T +<br />

2<br />

i=<br />

1<br />

m<br />

1<br />

+<br />

2<br />

∑<br />

k=<br />

1<br />

ε (ln Z ) T<br />

kt , kt ,<br />

The corresponding share equations are:<br />

n m<br />

it , = αi+ αij(ln jt , ) + βik(ln kt , ) + εit<br />

,<br />

j= 1 k=<br />

1<br />

S P Z T<br />

(5.7)<br />

∑ ∑ (5.8)<br />

We estimate required parameters from <strong>the</strong> system <strong>of</strong> share equations. Since <strong>the</strong><br />

pr<strong>of</strong>it shares sum to one, <strong>the</strong> variance covariance matrix <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> system <strong>of</strong> share<br />

equations will be singular. One <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> share equations must be dropped in order to<br />

make estimation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> parameters <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> system <strong>of</strong> equations possible. The parameters<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> excluded equation can be obtained from <strong>the</strong> symmetry and homogeneity<br />

restrictions which are imposed on <strong>the</strong> system, while <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>rs can be derived<br />

by maximum likelihood estimation (Berndt, 1991). The cross-equation<br />

symmetry restrictions and <strong>the</strong> possibility that <strong>the</strong> error terms <strong>of</strong> different share<br />

equations may be correlated make <strong>the</strong> Zellner SURE estimator <strong>the</strong> most appropriate.<br />

In order to make <strong>the</strong> estimates invariant to <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> equation excluded, an<br />

20 The model here adopted is a pooled model which does not take account <strong>of</strong> differences among firms. Fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />

models able to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se differences could be employed. However, our objective was not to study<br />

problems <strong>of</strong> efficiency. Therefore we decided to apply <strong>the</strong> TOTAL regression model.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

iterative Zellner SURE procedure (known as IZEF) is used (Maietta, 2000).<br />

Kmenta and Gilbert (1968) have shown that <strong>the</strong> parameter estimates from <strong>the</strong> iterative<br />

Zellner SURE procedure converge to maximum likelihood estimates.<br />

5.4.1.5 Data<br />

The data used are taken from <strong>the</strong> Farm Accounting Data Network (FADN) 21 .<br />

Data refer to a constant sample made up <strong>of</strong> 573 regional farms oriented to production<br />

<strong>of</strong> cereals and industrial crops; <strong>the</strong> period covered is 1990-1998. The total<br />

number <strong>of</strong> observations is thus 5,157. For each farm, two only outputs are considered:<br />

cereals and industrial crops, being <strong>the</strong> prevailing crops in <strong>the</strong> region (see par.<br />

5.2). The variable inputs are: fertilizers, pesticides and seeds. We only considered<br />

inputs used for producing <strong>the</strong> two outputs considered. The quasi-fixed factors are:<br />

land, <strong>cap</strong>ital and labour. Land was expressed in terms <strong>of</strong> quantity <strong>of</strong> hectares<br />

farmed, while labour was expressed in terms <strong>of</strong> hours worked. For <strong>the</strong> <strong>cap</strong>ital inputs,<br />

it was assumed that <strong>the</strong> service flow from <strong>the</strong> stock <strong>of</strong> <strong>cap</strong>ital was proportional<br />

to <strong>the</strong> stock, so <strong>the</strong> stock values (net <strong>of</strong> depreciation) were used as proxies<br />

for <strong>the</strong> service flow (Higgins, 1986). All fixed costs were expressed in terms <strong>of</strong><br />

indices having <strong>the</strong> 1990 values as bases.<br />

Pr<strong>of</strong>it was defined as <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> output minus <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> variable inputs.<br />

The shares <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it were <strong>the</strong> values <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> outputs and inputs divided by pr<strong>of</strong>it.<br />

Regional variable input prices are not available in <strong>the</strong> FADN. So, <strong>the</strong>y were<br />

taken as national indices <strong>of</strong> prices having 1990 as a base. Instead, regional output<br />

prices were calculated as Paasche indices using data from INEA 22 .<br />

5.4.1.6 Results<br />

Parameter estimates <strong>of</strong> share equations are shown in Tab. 5.4. The excluded<br />

share equation was that <strong>of</strong> seeds. Therefore, <strong>the</strong> relevant parameters were estimated<br />

from <strong>the</strong> symmetry and homogeneity conditions.<br />

Elasticities <strong>of</strong> output supply and input demand were calculated from parameters<br />

estimated using <strong>the</strong> sample mean 23 (Tab. 5.5). Results obtained are consistent<br />

21 It needs to remind that <strong>the</strong> sample <strong>of</strong> farms contained into FADN is nei<strong>the</strong>r random nor statistically representative.<br />

Accordingly, any estimate obtained using FADN as data source may be affected by this distortion<br />

(Sckokai, 2001).<br />

22 Used output prices may reflect both intervention price (when market prices are below intervention price)<br />

and market prices (when <strong>the</strong> latter are above intervention price). For this reason, calculated own price elasticities<br />

with respect to <strong>the</strong> cereal output do not exactly represent farmers’ responsiveness to price intervention<br />

and <strong>the</strong>y could overestimate <strong>impact</strong> from intervention-price reduction (De Muro and Salvatici, 2001).<br />

23 From this model, fur<strong>the</strong>r and interesting information can be derived (i.e. elasticities with respect to quasifixed<br />

factors). However, we were not interested in extracting all possible information. Therefore, we decided<br />

to present only information related to output and variable inputs.<br />

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An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

with <strong>the</strong> assumption <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it maximising behaviour since own price elasticities <strong>of</strong><br />

output supply are positive and own price elasticities <strong>of</strong> input demand are negative<br />

24 .<br />

Demand for inputs is particularly elastic, especially for pesticides, while supply<br />

<strong>of</strong> products is not very elastic. Among products, <strong>the</strong> cereal output would seem to<br />

react more than industrial crops. Expected results are related to consequences on<br />

inputs deriving from price variations <strong>of</strong> outputs. In fact, it can be noted that an increase<br />

in prices <strong>of</strong> outputs will generate an increase in quantities <strong>of</strong> inputs used.<br />

This should be due to a rise in <strong>the</strong> demand <strong>of</strong> inputs necessary to fulfil <strong>the</strong> higher<br />

level <strong>of</strong> production. A fur<strong>the</strong>r interesting outcome concerns <strong>the</strong> relationship between<br />

cereals and industrial crops. It emerges that a variation <strong>of</strong> cereal (industrial<br />

crop) prices leads to a variation <strong>of</strong> opposite sign <strong>of</strong> output <strong>of</strong> industrial crops (cereals).<br />

This points out an high <strong>cap</strong>ability <strong>of</strong> farmers in adjusting production<br />

choices according to market conveniences. This flexibility is partly explained by<br />

<strong>the</strong> characteristics <strong>of</strong> outputs considered since cereals and industrial crops mostly<br />

require <strong>the</strong> same technology.<br />

Towards our aims, <strong>the</strong> figure in which we are interested is concerned with cereals.<br />

The table shows that elasticity <strong>of</strong> quantity <strong>of</strong> cereals with respect to <strong>the</strong>ir<br />

prices is 0.25. Assuming invariance throughout period 2000-2006, we will use this<br />

elasticity to estimate <strong>the</strong> cereal output variation due to price reduction established<br />

by CAP.<br />

24 The reliability and <strong>the</strong> meaningfulness <strong>of</strong> results can also be assessed by checking if <strong>the</strong> estimated parameters<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> share equations satisfy <strong>the</strong> symmetry, convexity, monotonicity and homogeneity conditions (Higgins,<br />

1986). If it is true <strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> assumption that farmers are pr<strong>of</strong>it maximisers and <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function is continuous<br />

and twice differentiable will be true. Monotonicity will be satisfied if <strong>the</strong> predicted output shares are<br />

positive and input shares are negative. This condition was checked at <strong>the</strong> average levels <strong>of</strong> prices and fixed<br />

inputs and was satisfied. Symmetry and linear homogeneity were tested using F statistic. At 1% level <strong>of</strong> significance,<br />

both assumptions were not rejected. Convexity is satisfied if <strong>the</strong> bordered Hessian matrix <strong>of</strong> second<br />

order derivatives <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it function with respect to netput prices is positive semi-definite. This was<br />

checked at <strong>the</strong> average levels <strong>of</strong> prices and fixed inputs and was found to be true.<br />

117


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

118<br />

Tab. 5.4 – Parameter estimates <strong>of</strong> share equations<br />

Cereals Industrial crops Fertilizers Pesticides Seeds*<br />

Intercept -0.4645 -1.2946 1.3480 0.6787 0.7323<br />

(18.2) (3.5) (63.0) (30.4) -<br />

Output prices<br />

Cereals 0.0128 0.3678 -0.2067 0.0538 -0.2277<br />

(2.2) (2.5) (3.7) (4.4) -<br />

Industrial crops 0.3678 0.0535 -0.1926 -0.1184 -0.0033<br />

(2.5) (3.4) (5.5) (8.0) -<br />

Input prices<br />

Fertilizers -0.2067 -0.1926 -0.3030 0.1713 0.5310<br />

(3.7) (5.5) (2.3) (4.1) -<br />

Pesticides 0.0538 -0.1184 0.1713 -0.1354 -0.2419<br />

(4.4) (8.0) (4.1) (5.8) -<br />

Seeds* -0.2277 -0.0033 0.5310 -0.2419 -0.0581<br />

- - - - -<br />

Fixed inputs<br />

Land -0.3215 0.0655 0.2174 -0.0028 0.0415<br />

(2.2) (3.6) (1.9) (2.4) -<br />

Labour -0.2722 0.0061 0.2183 0.0201 0.0277<br />

(2.0) (3.5) (2.1) (1.8) -<br />

Capital 0.0752 -0.0517 -0.0283 0.0060 -0.0011<br />

(0.7) (4.0) (0.4) (0.7) -<br />

Trend 0.0277 0.0041 0.0231 0.0034 -<br />

(5.8) (4.5) (0.7) (2.4) -<br />

2<br />

R<br />

Absolute t values are in paren<strong>the</strong>ses<br />

0.27 0.28 0.88 0.45 -<br />

* Seeds coefficients are obtained from <strong>the</strong> symmetry homogeneity restrictions<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on FADN data, 1990-98<br />

Tab. 5.5 – Elasticities <strong>of</strong> outputs and variable inputs with respect to prices changes, calculated<br />

on a sample <strong>of</strong> farms <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region Marche, Italy<br />

Quantity<br />

Prices<br />

Cereals Industrial crops Fertilizer Pesticides Seeds<br />

Cereals 0.25 -0.08 0.57 0.07 0.44<br />

Industrial crops -0.04 0.17 0.77 0.34 0.26<br />

Fertilizer -1.76 -1.01 -0.64 -0.54 -0.59<br />

Pesticides -0.77 -1.56 -0.90 -1.30 0.87<br />

Seeds -1.14 -0.54 -0.48 0.83 -1.03<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on FADN data, 1990-98


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

5.4.2 A closed mixed-variable I-O model<br />

In spite <strong>of</strong> some restrictive assumptions (Gerking et al., 2001), I-O <strong>analysis</strong><br />

still represents an effective analytical tool to quantify <strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> on output and, by<br />

a little extension, on income and employment, resulting from a change in <strong>the</strong> final<br />

demand relative to a given sector. I-O methodology permits, in fact, to <strong>cap</strong>ture not<br />

only <strong>the</strong> effects produced in <strong>the</strong> sector involved by final demand variation but also<br />

those induced by backward linkages among sectors (Leontief, 1966).<br />

However, our aim is to evaluate <strong>the</strong> effects generated by a change in output<br />

whilst <strong>the</strong> traditional Leontief model is not able to analyse this kind <strong>of</strong> effects<br />

unless a change in output is converted into a corresponding change in final demand<br />

using sectoral multiplier (Bonfiglio, 2002a). Models that were conceived to<br />

study <strong>impact</strong> from output variation are <strong>the</strong> mixed-variable I-O model (Miller and<br />

Blair, 1985) and <strong>the</strong> mixed-variable SAM-based model (Roberts, 1994) which is<br />

an extension <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> former. Both allow analysing <strong>the</strong> effects induced by a variation<br />

<strong>of</strong> output, treating <strong>the</strong> latter as a final demand component, i.e. exogenous to<br />

<strong>the</strong> system. Compared to <strong>the</strong> mixed-variable I-O model, <strong>the</strong> mixed-variable SAMbased<br />

model is able to measure also induced effects since household sector is endogenous<br />

to <strong>the</strong> system. However, as this model was defined using a SAM as a<br />

reference base, it could not be directly used.<br />

Since our <strong>analysis</strong> is oriented to <strong>the</strong> mid-long term and in consideration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

importance <strong>of</strong> household sector in regional I-O models (Costa, 1973), we decided<br />

to modify <strong>the</strong> mixed-variable I-O model closing it with respect to household sector.<br />

The resulting model, which can be called closed mixed-variable I-O model, is<br />

conceptually very similar to <strong>the</strong> approach suggested by Roberts but it slightly differs<br />

from this latter in terms <strong>of</strong> construction.<br />

To illustrate <strong>the</strong> model, consider an economy with n + 1 sectors: n productive<br />

sectors and one endogenous household sector. The basic balance equations <strong>of</strong> this<br />

system can be written as:<br />

⎧(1 − a11) X1+ …( − ) a1jX j + …+<br />

( −) a1nXn − k1y = Y1<br />

⎪<br />

⎪…<br />

⎪<br />

⎪−<br />

aj1X1 + …+ (1 − ajj) X j + …+<br />

( −) ajnXn − kjy = Yj<br />

⎨<br />

⎪…<br />

⎪− an1X1 + …+ ( − ) anjX j + …+<br />

(1 −ann) Xn − kny = Yn<br />

⎪<br />

⎪− ⎩ hX + …+ ( − ) hX + …+<br />

( − ) hX + (1 − h ) y = y<br />

1 1 j j n n n+ 1<br />

x<br />

(5.9)<br />

119


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

where a ij is <strong>the</strong> regional input coefficient (local products <strong>of</strong> sector i purchased as<br />

inputs from sector j per unit <strong>of</strong> output <strong>of</strong> sector j ); k i is a consumption coefficient,<br />

expressing <strong>the</strong> share <strong>of</strong> income expended by households for purchasing<br />

commodity i ; h i is a labour income coefficient, expressing <strong>the</strong> share <strong>of</strong> labour<br />

income on sector i ’s output; y is total labour income; h n+<br />

1 is <strong>the</strong> share <strong>of</strong> labour<br />

income paid by households for services <strong>of</strong>fered by households <strong>the</strong>mselves (i.e.<br />

domestic services); y x is labour income paid by o<strong>the</strong>r institutions for services <strong>of</strong>fered<br />

by households; i X is sector i ’s output and Y i is final demand <strong>of</strong> sector i .<br />

The last equation states that total income <strong>of</strong> households less <strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> returns<br />

from factor earnings equals <strong>the</strong> exogenous income <strong>of</strong> households paid by o<strong>the</strong>r institutions.<br />

The o<strong>the</strong>rs simply present <strong>the</strong> accounting identity that gross output less<br />

intermediate sales equals final demand for a commodity. In matrix notation, <strong>the</strong><br />

system (5.9) can be <strong>reform</strong>ulated as follows:<br />

120<br />

⎡(1 −a11) −a1j −a1n −k1⎤<br />

⎡X1⎤ ⎡Y1 ⎤<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ −aj1(1 −ajj) −ajn −kj<br />

⎥ ⎢X⎥ ⎢Y j j ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ = ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎢ −a −a (1 −a ) −k<br />

⎥ ⎢X⎥ ⎢Y ⎥<br />

n1nj nn n n n<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ −h1 −hj −hn (1 −hn+ 1)<br />

⎥ ⎢ y ⎥ ⎢⎣ yx<br />

⎥⎦<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

Now suppose that sector j is exogenous. The system (5.9) becomes:<br />

(5.10)<br />

⎧(1<br />

− a11) X1+ …+ ( −) a1, j−1X j− 1 − a1, j+ 1X j+ 1 + …+<br />

( −) a1nXn − k1y = Y1+ a1jX j<br />

⎪<br />

⎪…<br />

⎪<br />

⎪−<br />

a X + …+ ( −) a X −Y − a X + …+<br />

( −) a X − k y = −(1 −a<br />

) X<br />

⎨<br />

⎪…<br />

⎪−<br />

an1X1 + …+ ( −) an, j−1X j− 1 − an, j+ 1X j+ 1+<br />

…+<br />

(1 −ann) Xn − kny = Yn + anjX j<br />

⎪<br />

⎪<br />

⎩−<br />

hX 1 1 + …+ ( −)<br />

hj−1X j−1−<br />

hj+ 1X j+ 1+ …+<br />

( − ) hnXn + (1 − hn+ 1 ) y = yx + hjX j<br />

j1 1 j, j−1 j− 1 j j, j+ 1 j+ 1<br />

jn n j jj j<br />

(5.11)


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

The solution <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> system, in matrix notation, is thus:<br />

⎡X1⎤ ⎡(1 −a11) 0 −a1n−k1⎤ ⎡ Y1+ a1jX j ⎤<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

<br />

<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢Y⎥ ⎢ −a (1 )<br />

j1−1−a a j<br />

jn −kj<br />

⎥ ⎢− − jj X j ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ = ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎥<br />

⎢X⎥ ⎢ −an1 0 (1 −ann) −k<br />

⎥ ⎢ Y n<br />

n<br />

n + anjX ⎥ j<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎣⎢ y ⎦⎥ ⎣⎢ −h1 0 −hn (1 −hn<br />

1)<br />

yx + hjX + ⎦⎥<br />

⎢⎣ j ⎥⎦<br />

−1<br />

(5.12)<br />

The system (5.12) represents <strong>the</strong> modified Leontief model, <strong>cap</strong>able <strong>of</strong> investigating<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> an exogenous change in output <strong>of</strong> sector j . Three points deserve<br />

to be illustrated. First, <strong>the</strong> inverse matrix <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> modified model differs from<br />

that <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> traditional model. Second, <strong>the</strong> system suggests that in order to measure<br />

<strong>the</strong> effects <strong>of</strong> a change in gross output <strong>of</strong> sector j , it is necessary to translate <strong>the</strong><br />

output effect into derived demand effects on <strong>the</strong> input and factor suppliers using<br />

<strong>the</strong> vector <strong>of</strong> direct inputs coefficients. Third, final demand <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sector whose<br />

output is exogenous is solved endogenously. Following <strong>the</strong> example <strong>of</strong> Miller and<br />

Blair (1985), to make <strong>the</strong> relationships between exogenously determined variables<br />

and endogenous variables more evident, <strong>the</strong> system can be rewritten as:<br />

⎡X1⎤ ⎡Y1⎤ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢Y⎥ ⎢X j<br />

j ⎥<br />

-1<br />

⎢ ⎥ = M N ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎢X⎥ ⎢Y⎥ n<br />

n<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ y ⎥ ⎢⎣ yx<br />

⎥⎦<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

Where:<br />

M<br />

⎡(1 −a11) ⎢<br />

<br />

⎢<br />

⎢ −a <br />

<br />

0<br />

<br />

−1 <br />

<br />

−a1n <br />

−a −k1<br />

<br />

−k<br />

⎤<br />

⎥<br />

⎥<br />

⎥<br />

⎢<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

−a <br />

<br />

<br />

0<br />

<br />

<br />

<br />

(1 −a )<br />

<br />

−k<br />

⎥<br />

⎥<br />

j1jn j<br />

= ⎢ ⎥<br />

n1nn n<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢⎣ −h1 0 <br />

−hn (1 −h<br />

n+<br />

1)<br />

⎥⎦<br />

(5.13)<br />

121


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

122<br />

⎡1 a1<br />

j 0 0⎤<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢0 −(1 −ajj)<br />

0 0⎥<br />

N = ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎢0 anj<br />

1 0⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢⎣0 h j 0 1⎥⎦<br />

The model also allows determining <strong>impact</strong> in terms <strong>of</strong> income. y registers <strong>the</strong><br />

overall variation <strong>of</strong> income generated by a change in exogenous variables. However,<br />

<strong>the</strong> sectoral <strong>impact</strong> in terms <strong>of</strong> income is not known. To determine how income<br />

<strong>impact</strong> is distributed among sectors, we first modify <strong>the</strong> system <strong>of</strong> equations<br />

(5.9) converting it into income relationships.<br />

The system (5.9) can be rewritten as follows:<br />

⎧(1 − a11) a1<br />

j a1nk1 ⎪ y1 + …− yj + …−<br />

yn − yn+ 1 = Y1<br />

⎪<br />

h1 hj hn hn+<br />

1<br />

⎪…<br />

⎪<br />

⎪ a (1 − a ) a k<br />

⎪−<br />

y + …+ y + …−<br />

y − y = Y<br />

⎪ h h h h<br />

⎨<br />

⎪…<br />

⎪ a a (1 − a ) k<br />

⎪− y + …− y + …+<br />

y − y = Y<br />

⎪ h h h h<br />

⎪<br />

⎪ h h h (1 − h )<br />

− y + …− y + …−<br />

y + y = y<br />

⎪<br />

⎩ h h h h<br />

j1jj jn j<br />

1 j n n+ 1 j<br />

1 j n n+<br />

1<br />

n1nj nn n<br />

1 j n n+ 1 n<br />

1 j n n+<br />

1<br />

1 j n n+<br />

1<br />

1 j n n+ 1 x<br />

1 j n n+<br />

1<br />

(5.14)<br />

where hi = yi Xi<br />

is <strong>the</strong> previously illustrated income input coefficient. In particular,<br />

it results that hn+ 1 = yn+ 1 y , where y n+<br />

1 equals income received by<br />

households for services <strong>of</strong>fered to households <strong>the</strong>mselves. The existence <strong>of</strong> a linear<br />

relationship between wages and salaries and production is assumed.


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Then, we proceed as above, making output <strong>of</strong> sector j exogenous to <strong>the</strong> system.<br />

Considering that yi hi = Xi<br />

, we obtain:<br />

⎡ y ⎤ 1<br />

⎡Y1⎤ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ Y ⎥ -1 X<br />

j ( ˆ<br />

⎢ j ⎥<br />

-1<br />

⎢ ⎥ = Mh ) N ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎢ y ⎥ ⎢Y⎥ n<br />

n<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢y y<br />

n+<br />

1 ⎥ ⎢⎣ x ⎥⎦<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

(5.15)<br />

where N and M have been previously defined. ˆ h is diagonalized income coefficient<br />

vector and it results that h = ⎡<br />

⎣h1, …, hj− 1,1, hj+ 1, … , hn, hn+<br />

1⎤<br />

⎦ .<br />

Note that <strong>the</strong> model does not give information on variation <strong>of</strong> income in sector<br />

whose output is exogenous. To find <strong>the</strong> corresponding change in income, it is sufficient<br />

to apply <strong>the</strong> following formula: ∆ yj = ∆ X j hj<br />

.<br />

To determine <strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> in terms <strong>of</strong> employment, <strong>the</strong> procedure to be followed<br />

is analogous to that applied to income. The substantial difference lies in <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> labour input coefficient instead <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> income input coefficient. The labour in-<br />

e = E X and represents <strong>the</strong> quantity <strong>of</strong> labour<br />

put coefficient is defined as i i i<br />

needed to produce one output unit in sector i . It expresses <strong>the</strong> relationship existing<br />

between employment and output <strong>of</strong> a given sector, which is, also in this case,<br />

hypo<strong>the</strong>sized to be linear 25 . Finally, employment model results to be:<br />

⎡ E ⎤ 1<br />

⎡Y1⎤ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

<br />

⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ Y ⎥ ⎢X j<br />

j ⎥<br />

-1<br />

-1<br />

⎢ ⎥ = ( Meˆ ) N ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢<br />

<br />

⎥<br />

⎢ E ⎥ ⎢Y⎥ n<br />

n<br />

⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥<br />

⎢E y<br />

n+<br />

1 ⎥ ⎢⎣ x ⎥⎦<br />

⎣ ⎦<br />

(5.16)<br />

25 Ideally, this relationship could be expressed by a function that can be approximated by techniques <strong>of</strong> simple<br />

linear regression. However, since data for estimating this function are not readily available, a point approximation<br />

based on a single pair <strong>of</strong> observations is normally used. This might lead to an overestimation <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> employment effects <strong>of</strong> any change in output (Harrison-Mayfield, 1996).<br />

123


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Where ê is a diagonalized employment coefficient vector and it results that<br />

e = ⎡<br />

⎣e1, …, ej− 1,1, ej+ 1, … , en, en+<br />

1⎤<br />

⎦.<br />

Like income model, even employment model<br />

does not give information about sector whose output is exogenous. To find <strong>the</strong><br />

corresponding change in employment, <strong>the</strong> following formula is applied:<br />

∆ E j =∆ X j ej<br />

.<br />

It is undoubted that this sort <strong>of</strong> model requires much more calculations than <strong>the</strong><br />

traditional model. However, <strong>the</strong>re is <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> reducing considerably <strong>the</strong><br />

quantity <strong>of</strong> operations, by constructing an output-to-output multiplier matrix. This<br />

kind <strong>of</strong> matrix is obtained by dividing all elements <strong>of</strong> a traditional inverse matrix<br />

( b ij ) by on-diagonal elements. i.e: *<br />

bij = bij bjj<br />

. It has been demonstrated that this<br />

alternative approach may be valid only for evaluating <strong>impact</strong> from output variation<br />

<strong>of</strong> one sector at once (Miller and Blair, 1985; Roberts, 1994).<br />

5.4.3 Construction <strong>of</strong> regional I-O tables by different methods<br />

5.4.3.1 Methods used and common data<br />

Different regional I-O tables are derived using 16 methods: eight non-survey<br />

methods and eight hybrid methods. Non-survey methods are SLQ, PLQ, WLQ,<br />

CILQ, RLQ, SCILQ, FLQ, SDP, while hybrid methods are versions <strong>of</strong> GRIT incorporating<br />

th e mentioned non-survey methods. Three <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se versions are wellknown:<br />

<strong>the</strong>y are <strong>the</strong> original GRIT (with SLQ), GRIT II (with WLQ) and <strong>the</strong> Aberdeen<br />

version <strong>of</strong> GRIT (with CILQ). One has been recently used: it is <strong>the</strong> RE-<br />

APBALK version (with FLQ). The o<strong>the</strong>r four coincide with <strong>the</strong> original version<br />

incorporating SDP, SCILQ, RLQ and PLQ, respectively 26 .<br />

First requirement <strong>of</strong> all used methods is a national I-O table as a starting point.<br />

We took a national I-O table dated from 1997 and constructed by Rampa (2001).<br />

It is symmetric, containing 42 sectors, valued at basic prices, expressed in total<br />

flows (domestic plus import flows), in current values and with imputed banking<br />

services allocated among intermediate costs. The table is consistent with <strong>the</strong><br />

ESA1979 European accounting methodology 27 . The final demand quadrant is<br />

composed <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> following entries: household consumption, public expenditure<br />

(distinguished into expenditure <strong>of</strong> public administration and <strong>of</strong> social and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

institutions), gross fixed <strong>cap</strong>ital formation, change in inventories and exports. The<br />

primary inputs’ quadrant is composed <strong>of</strong>: gross wages and salaries, social contri-<br />

26 For an illustration <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> methods adopted, see chapters two and three.<br />

27 As known, <strong>the</strong> accounting system has been <strong>reform</strong>ed introducing <strong>the</strong> so-called ESA1995 (ISTAT, 1996).<br />

For Italy, <strong>the</strong> only table constructed by this new system is dated from 1992. For this, it was preferred to employ<br />

a more recent table even if constructed by <strong>the</strong> previous methodology.<br />

124


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

bution, gross operating surplus, V.A.T. (Value Added Tax) on products, o<strong>the</strong>r indirect<br />

taxes on production, subsidies on products, product transfers, imports CIF,<br />

VAT on imports and o<strong>the</strong>r indirect taxes on imports.<br />

We decided not to update <strong>the</strong> national table for two main reasons. First, employment<br />

data at disaggregated sectoral level, necessary to regionalize <strong>the</strong> national<br />

table, were available only for 1996. Second, empirical evidence has shown<br />

that an input-output table can remain valid for a certain number <strong>of</strong> years 28 (Tilanus<br />

and Rey, 1964; Carter, 1970; Conway, 1980).<br />

Second requirement is <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> employment data if o<strong>the</strong>r data (such<br />

as output or value added data) are not available. Employment data at both regional<br />

and national level were available for 24 sectors from 1996 middle Census <strong>of</strong> industry<br />

and services and ISTAT regional accounting (as for agriculture). At national<br />

level, employment data were also available for 42 sectors corresponding to<br />

those <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national I-O table (Rampa, 2001). One possibility was to aggregate<br />

national sectors up to 24 sectors for which regional data were available and <strong>the</strong>n<br />

to regionalize. However, this could have caused significant error due to aggregation<br />

in terms <strong>of</strong> multipliers (Lahr and Stevens, 2002). To minimize error, practice<br />

suggests aggregating after regionalizing. If detailed regional data are lacking, regional<br />

data could be disaggregated using national ratios. So, we decided to estimate<br />

regional employment <strong>of</strong> missing sectors by national weights represented by<br />

employment ratios 29 . In so doing, it was possible to obtain employment data at<br />

regional level for all sectors represented in <strong>the</strong> national I-O table. In order to ensure<br />

consistency, national employment was derived using census data and disaggregating<br />

<strong>the</strong>se latter on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> national shares calculated from employment<br />

data available for 42 sectors.<br />

For all methods, a full 1997 regional I-O table was derived, where primary inputs<br />

were value added, imports and o<strong>the</strong>r final payments (including all <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

categories such as taxes, subsidies and transfers) 30 and, following <strong>the</strong> example <strong>of</strong><br />

GRIT, final demand was disaggregated into household consumption, exports and<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r final demands (including public expenditure, investments and changes in inventory).<br />

Afterwards, all regional tables were first aggregated into 24 sectors to fit <strong>the</strong> I-<br />

O table to <strong>the</strong> simpler regional economic structure (Tab. 5.6). Then, regional ta-<br />

28<br />

Notwithstanding, one can object that updating could take place after regionalization directly to <strong>the</strong> regional<br />

table using regional relative prices. Unfortunately, information on prices at regional level was missing and <strong>the</strong> use<br />

<strong>of</strong> national price indices was considered improper.<br />

29<br />

For real estate, renting and business services, output ratios were used for lacking <strong>of</strong> employment data even<br />

at national level.<br />

30<br />

In GRIT, only two categories <strong>of</strong> final payments are considered: value added and imports. However, <strong>the</strong>re<br />

exist o<strong>the</strong>r components that do not fall into <strong>the</strong> mentioned categories. We classified <strong>the</strong>m as “o<strong>the</strong>r final payments”.<br />

125


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

bles were disaggregated to represent <strong>the</strong> cereal sub-sector within agricultural sector<br />

31 .<br />

5.4.3.2 Hybrid methods<br />

In all versions <strong>of</strong> GRIT, <strong>the</strong> national intrasectoral flows were not zeroed since<br />

level <strong>of</strong> sectoral detail was not high. First estimates <strong>of</strong> regional coefficients for 42<br />

sectors were obtained using non-survey methods incorporated into each version.<br />

As for <strong>the</strong> REAPBALK version, <strong>the</strong> parameter δ was fixed at <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> 0.9<br />

since lower values generated a negative difference between total output and intermediate<br />

sales. For all versions, regional output was estimated by labour income<br />

ratio (Lahr, 2001b).<br />

Superior data at regional level were collected from two information sources:<br />

ISTAT (regional accounting and COEWEB database 32 ) and INEA (Tab. 5.7).<br />

From ISTAT, <strong>the</strong> following data were taken: value added, labour income, exports<br />

outside Italy 33 , household consumption and o<strong>the</strong>r final demands. Data on value<br />

added and labour income were available for 24 sectors. The former were used directly<br />

within GRIT while <strong>the</strong> latter were used successively (after aggregation) to<br />

calculate income input coefficients.<br />

Information on exports was available for 18 sectors (16 producing goods and 2<br />

producing services). Since regional exports include interregional flows, exports<br />

outside <strong>the</strong> nation were used as inferior limits <strong>of</strong> total exports. Data on household<br />

consumption were overall available for 12 expenditure categories and <strong>the</strong>y were<br />

also distinguished into durable goods, non-durable goods and services. As for<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r final demands, only investments presented a high level <strong>of</strong> sectoral detail (24<br />

sectors). In fact, changes in inventory were available as a total, while data on public<br />

consumption were available for 10 expenditure categories. Therefore, it was<br />

decided to consider an aggregated value <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r final demands.<br />

From INEA, <strong>the</strong> following data were taken: total intermediate costs related to<br />

agricultural sector (including hunting, forestry and fishing) and seed, fertilizer and<br />

pesticide consumption in agricultural sector.<br />

31<br />

1997 25-sector Marche Regional I-O tables constructed by several methods are shown in appendix A.<br />

32<br />

COEWEB is an Italian on-line database managed by ISTAT and providing information on international<br />

trade.<br />

33<br />

Also data on imports were available but <strong>the</strong>y were not taken into consideration because <strong>the</strong>y are not significantly<br />

tied to <strong>the</strong> regional demand but <strong>the</strong>y are located amongst regions according to <strong>the</strong> role <strong>of</strong> trader and <strong>the</strong><br />

degree <strong>of</strong> multi-location <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region (Paniccià and Benvenuti, 2002).<br />

126


Tab. 5.6 – Connection table between 42-sector regional I-O table and 24-sector regional I-O table<br />

Aggregated sectors<br />

Disaggregated sectors<br />

01 - Agriculture<br />

02 - Mining<br />

03 - Food and tobacco<br />

04 - Textile products and apparel<br />

05 - Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes<br />

06 - Timber and furniture<br />

07 - Paper, printing, publishing<br />

08 - Coke and nuclear fuel<br />

09 - Chemicals<br />

10 - Rubber and plastic products<br />

11- Non-metal mineral products<br />

12 - Metal products<br />

13 - Machinery (except electricity)<br />

14 - Electrical and electronic equipment<br />

15 - Transportation equipment<br />

16 - O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing<br />

17 - Energy and water<br />

18 - Construction<br />

19 - Trade<br />

20 - Hotels and businesses<br />

21 - Transport and communication<br />

22 - Credit and insurance<br />

23 - Real estate, renting, research, business services<br />

24 - O<strong>the</strong>r services<br />

01-Agriculture, forestry, hunting, fishery<br />

03-Coal mining<br />

13-Ferrous minerals and metals<br />

31-Fresh and canned meat<br />

33-Milk products<br />

35-O<strong>the</strong>r foodstuffs<br />

37-Alcohol and s<strong>of</strong>t drinks<br />

39-Tobacco manufactures<br />

41-Textile products and apparel<br />

43-Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes<br />

45-Timber and furniture<br />

47-Paper, printing, publishing<br />

05-Coke<br />

11-Nuclear fuel<br />

07-Petroleum and natural gas<br />

17-Chemicals<br />

49-Rubber and plastic products<br />

15-Non-metal minerals<br />

19-Metal products<br />

21-Machinery (except electricity)<br />

23-Office machinery and optical equipment<br />

25-Electrical equipment<br />

27-Motor-vehicles and motors<br />

29-O<strong>the</strong>r means <strong>of</strong> transportation<br />

51-O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing<br />

09-Electricity, gas and water<br />

53-Construction<br />

55-Goods recovered<br />

57-Trade<br />

59-Hotels and businesses<br />

61-Internal transportation<br />

63-Water and air transportation<br />

65-O<strong>the</strong>r transportation activities<br />

67-Communications<br />

69-Credit and insurance<br />

71-Business services<br />

73-Real estate and rental<br />

75-Private research and educational services<br />

77-Private health services<br />

79-Entertainment and cultural services<br />

81-Public administration services<br />

93-Domestic services<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from Rampa (2001)


Tab. 5.7 – Regional superior data (flows) utilized in <strong>the</strong> 42-sector regional I-O table, Marche, 1997<br />

Data Sectoral Detail Correspondence with <strong>the</strong> 42-sector regional table<br />

Total intermediate costs <strong>of</strong> Agriculture<br />

Total intermediate costs <strong>of</strong> Forestry<br />

Total intermediate costs <strong>of</strong> Fishing<br />

} ∑ Z<br />

i,01<br />

i<br />

Intermediate costs<br />

Value added<br />

Labour income<br />

Seed consumption from agriculture ≤ Z<br />

35,01<br />

Fertilizer consumption from agriculture<br />

Pesticide consumption from agriculture } ≤ Z<br />

17,01<br />

Agriculture, hunting, forestry<br />

Fishing and related services<br />

} 01<br />

Mining 03+13<br />

Food and tobacco 31+33+35+37+39<br />

Textile products and apparel 41<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 43<br />

Timber, rubber, plastic products and o<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 45+49+51<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 47<br />

Coke, nuclear fuel and chemicals 05+07+11<br />

Non-metal mineral products 15<br />

Metal products 19<br />

Machinery, electronic and transportation equipment 21+23+25+27+29<br />

Energy and water 09<br />

Construction 53<br />

Trade 55+57<br />

Hotels and businesses 59<br />

Transport and communication 61+63+65+67<br />

Credit and insurance 69<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services<br />

Public Administration and defence; social security<br />

Education<br />

71+73+75<br />

} 81<br />

Health and social work 77<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r community, social and personal services 79<br />

Domestic services 93<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r final demands (Public consumption,<br />

investments, changes in<br />

inventories)<br />

TOTAL All sectors<br />

Note: Z<br />

ij<br />

represents intermediate flows from sector i to sector j .


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Tab. 5.7 – Regional superior data (flows) utilized in <strong>the</strong> 42-sector regional I-O table, Marche, 1997 (continued)<br />

Data Sectoral Detail Correspondence with <strong>the</strong> 42-sector regional table<br />

Agriculture, hunting, forestry<br />

Fishing and related services<br />

} 01<br />

Mining 03+13<br />

Food and tobacco 31+33+35+37+39<br />

Textile products and apparel 41<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 43<br />

Timber and furniture 45<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 47<br />

Exports outside nation<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel<br />

Chemicals<br />

05+11+07<br />

17<br />

Rubber and plastic products 49<br />

Non-metal mineral products 15<br />

Metal products 19<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 21<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 23+25<br />

Transportation equipment 27+29<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 51<br />

Informatics’, pr<strong>of</strong>essional and business activities 71+73+75<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r community, social and personal services 77+79+81+93<br />

Household consumption<br />

Foodstuffs and non-alcoholic beverages<br />

Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics<br />

} 01+31+33+35+37+39<br />

Clo<strong>the</strong>s and footwear 41+43<br />

Housing expenses, electricity, gas, o<strong>the</strong>r fuels unused<br />

Furniture, household appliances, housewares and house services unused<br />

Health expenses unused<br />

Transport 61+63+65<br />

Communication 67<br />

Recreational and cultural services 79<br />

Education unused<br />

Hotels and businesses 59<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r goods and services unused<br />

Durable goods unused<br />

Non-durable goods unused<br />

Services 55+…+93<br />

TOTAL All sectors<br />

Source: ISTAT and INEA<br />

129


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Total intermediate costs were used as a control total for agricultural sector (in<br />

<strong>the</strong> wider definition) ( ∑ Zi,01<br />

) while purchases <strong>of</strong> seeds and purchases <strong>of</strong> fertiliz-<br />

i<br />

ers and pesticides were used as inferior limits related to purchases by agriculture<br />

from <strong>the</strong> sub-sector <strong>of</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r foodstuffs (within food and tobacco industry) ( Z 35,01 )<br />

and chemical industry ( Z 17,01),<br />

respectively.<br />

Since exports, consumption, o<strong>the</strong>r final demands, intermediate costs were expressed<br />

in market prices, <strong>the</strong>y were converted into basic prices using information<br />

from <strong>the</strong> national matrices.<br />

After inserting superior data, <strong>the</strong> full table was balanced using a non-linear<br />

programming technique 34 . In all versions <strong>of</strong> GRIT, <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r adjustments<br />

based on expert’s opinions is contemplated in order to derive a table<br />

that is as reliable as possible. However, this was not our objective and, <strong>the</strong>refore,<br />

this phase was skipped.<br />

The final table was successively aggregated into 24 sectors. Then, agricultural<br />

sector, including agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing, was disaggregated<br />

into sub-sector <strong>of</strong> cereals and o<strong>the</strong>r sectors (o<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors, livestock,<br />

forestry and fishing).<br />

Unfortunately, disaggregation problem is not faced by GRIT and, in general,<br />

studies which face <strong>the</strong> practical problem <strong>of</strong> disaggregation, proposing techniques<br />

finalized to disaggregate a regional table, are relatively few. They are for example<br />

that <strong>of</strong> Fanfani (1978) and <strong>of</strong> Aislabie and Gordon (1990).<br />

The former study <strong>of</strong>fers some suggestions to disaggregate among more regions<br />

<strong>the</strong> national intermediate costs related to agriculture, livestock and hunting, processing<br />

<strong>of</strong> grape and olives and storage <strong>of</strong> fruits for drying, forestry and, finally,<br />

fishing. Apart from some entries, <strong>the</strong> general adopted criterion is based on production<br />

ratios. Instead, <strong>the</strong> latter study presupposes a survey to reconstruct <strong>the</strong> entire<br />

input structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> sub-sector incorporated in <strong>the</strong> aggregated sector.<br />

Considering our aim and <strong>the</strong> availability <strong>of</strong> data, both studies could not be directly<br />

applied in this research. However, it was decided to use <strong>the</strong> Fanfani’s general<br />

principle based on production ratios.<br />

34 The balancing was made by minimizing a function measuring <strong>the</strong> distance between <strong>the</strong> non-balanced matrix<br />

and <strong>the</strong> objective matrix under some constraints. As a measure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> distance, <strong>the</strong> Friedlander’s minimand,<br />

adjusted for negative values, was used (Friedlander, 1961; Bulmer-Thomas, 1982). Constraints were<br />

related to: (a) <strong>the</strong> imposition <strong>of</strong> non-negative values for intermediate flows, imports, consumption, exports.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r final demands and o<strong>the</strong>r final payments were made free to take negative values. Actually, <strong>the</strong> former<br />

may be negative because <strong>of</strong> subsidies on products and product transfers while <strong>the</strong> latter may take negative<br />

values because <strong>of</strong> de-structuring (negative investments) and changes in inventory; (b) row and column balance;<br />

(c) superior data, expressed as totals, punctual estimates and inferior limits; (d) keeping <strong>of</strong> zeros for initial<br />

zero-cells. It was supposed that superior data were free from error. The minimization problem was solved<br />

using <strong>the</strong> MINOS solver <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> GAMS package.<br />

130


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Output was disaggregated by regional marketable gross production (MGP) 35 .<br />

Data on MGP were taken from INEA. Intermediate costs <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal sector were<br />

initially obtained multiplying costs by ratio between <strong>the</strong> cereal and agricultural<br />

output (including livestock, forestry and fishing). Superior data for bigger and<br />

more important entries were taken from Farm Accounting Data Network<br />

(FADN) 36 . We used <strong>the</strong> proportion <strong>of</strong> seed re-uses on gross output to estimate<br />

purchases <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal sector from itself ( a cc , ). The proportion <strong>of</strong> expenses for<br />

mechanical services on output was used for estimating purchases from o<strong>the</strong>r agri-<br />

a ). The share related to consumption <strong>of</strong> seeds was utilized to<br />

cultural sectors ( nc, c<br />

calculate purchases from food and tobacco sector ( a 3,c ). Finally, <strong>the</strong> share relative<br />

to consumption <strong>of</strong> pesticides and fertilizer was employed to derive purchases from<br />

chemical sector ( a 9,c )(Tab. 5.8). Intermediate costs <strong>of</strong> remaining sectors were estimated<br />

by difference. We supposed that remaining sectors did not purchase from<br />

<strong>the</strong> cereal sector (<strong>the</strong> relevant flow was given equal to zero).<br />

Intermediate sales <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal sector and remaining sectors were simply estimated<br />

by MGP ratios.<br />

Primary inputs and final demand were disaggregated by production ratios, as<br />

well. We assumed that <strong>the</strong> cereal sector did not directly sell to households. Therefore,<br />

household consumption <strong>of</strong> cereals was given equal to zero. This hypo<strong>the</strong>sis<br />

was considered plausible and is coherent with <strong>the</strong> consumption matrix attached to<br />

<strong>the</strong> 1992 national table, in which consumption <strong>of</strong> cereals from agriculture is zero.<br />

Disaggregation raised a problem <strong>of</strong> balancing for sub-sectors within agriculture,<br />

since total input was not equal to total output. Flows were reconciled by attributing<br />

discrepancies to o<strong>the</strong>r final demands.<br />

Data on labour income and employment were estimated from FADN. Labour<br />

income for <strong>the</strong> cereal sector was obtained using proportion <strong>of</strong> total labour income<br />

<strong>of</strong> farms oriented to cereals on gross output. As for employment relevant to <strong>the</strong><br />

cereal sector, <strong>the</strong> first intention was to multiply <strong>the</strong> cereal output by <strong>the</strong> proportion<br />

<strong>of</strong> labour units on gross output pertinent to farms oriented to cereals. However,<br />

this proportion was judged non-significant. Therefore, it was decided to estimate<br />

employment by multiplying regional employment in agriculture in 1996 by ratio<br />

between employment in farms oriented to cereals and total employment <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

FADN sample in 1996. Datum on regional employment in agriculture was taken<br />

from ISTAT regional accounting.<br />

35 Regional marketable gross production does not take account <strong>of</strong> re-uses <strong>of</strong> products.<br />

36 In 1997, 1274 regional farms, producing arable crops, vegetables, fruit, floriculture and permanent crops<br />

were surveyed within FADN. 402 out <strong>of</strong> 1274 were farms oriented to cereals.<br />

131


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Tab. 5.8 – Regional superior data (coefficients) utilized in <strong>the</strong> 25-sector regional I-O table,<br />

Marche (Italy), 1997<br />

Superior data<br />

Share <strong>of</strong> re-uses on gross output<br />

Share <strong>of</strong> expenses for mechanical services on<br />

gross output<br />

Share <strong>of</strong> seed consumption on gross output 3,c<br />

Share <strong>of</strong> pesticides and fertilizer on gross output<br />

132<br />

Coefficient<br />

replaced<br />

Description<br />

a cc ,<br />

Purchases by <strong>the</strong> cereal sector from itself<br />

a nc, c<br />

Purchases by <strong>the</strong> cereal sector from o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

agricultural sectors<br />

a Purchases by <strong>the</strong> cereal sector from food and<br />

tobacco industry<br />

a 9,c<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration on data from FADN<br />

Purchases by <strong>the</strong> cereal sector from chemical<br />

industry<br />

5.4.3.3 Non-survey methods<br />

With reference to SLQ, PLQ, CILQ, RLQ, SCILQ and FLQ, regional coefficients<br />

derived by <strong>the</strong>se methods were adjusted using a modified version <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

method mentioned by Miller and Blair (1985) and described in chapter two. The<br />

main modification is related to <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> scaling coefficients upwards if<br />

<strong>the</strong> sum <strong>of</strong> intermediate sales and final demand is less than estimated output and<br />

not only downwards. Outputs were estimated by employment ratios adjusted<br />

downwards if SLQ was less than one (Mattas et al., 2003). Components <strong>of</strong> final<br />

demand, value added and labour income were estimated multiplying regional outputs<br />

by ratios between national components and outputs (henceforth national allocators).<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs were simply derived by difference. Specific considerations<br />

have to be made with reference to FLQ and SCILQ. As far as FLQ is<br />

concerned, <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> parameter that was used was 0.3 which is <strong>the</strong> value<br />

suggested by FLQ’s authors. As for SCILQ, because <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong> this location<br />

quotient, import coefficients for some sectors (obtained by difference between<br />

national input coefficients and regional input coefficients) were negative. In<br />

<strong>the</strong>se cases, since we were not interested in estimating imports precisely and considering<br />

that imports did not affect <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong> regional input coefficients, we<br />

estimated imports using <strong>the</strong> absolute value <strong>of</strong> import coefficients.<br />

With regard to WLQ, data requirements were major. In fact, besides employment<br />

data, reliable estimates for output and consumption were requested. Therefore,<br />

outputs were estimated by income ratios while superior data were used to<br />

balance consumption vector initially obtained by national allocators. As for final<br />

demand, apart from consumption, which was separately estimated, exports and<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r final demands were estimated by national allocators. Fur<strong>the</strong>r coefficient adjustment<br />

was made using <strong>the</strong> method adopted for <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r location quotients.<br />

As for SDP, components <strong>of</strong> final demand different from exports were initially<br />

estimated by national allocators. If commodity balance was negative, final de-


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

mands as well as intermediate sales were adjusted downwards. Output, value<br />

added, labour income and o<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs were estimated as already specified<br />

for location quotients.<br />

Again, once a full table was obtained, this was aggregated into 24 sectors and<br />

agriculture sector was successively disaggregated into <strong>the</strong> cereal sector and remaining<br />

sectors. All components were disaggregated using MGP ratios. Moreover,<br />

it was assumed that flows <strong>of</strong> goods and services from <strong>the</strong> cereal sector to itself<br />

and to o<strong>the</strong>r sub-sectors were null. Household consumption <strong>of</strong> cereals was<br />

given equal to zero.<br />

As already noted for hybrid methods, disaggregation raised a balancing problem<br />

related to sub-sectors within agriculture that was analogously solved by attributing<br />

discrepancies to o<strong>the</strong>r final demands.<br />

5.5 Impact <strong>sensitivity</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> using alternative regionalization methods<br />

5.5.1 Direct policy <strong>impact</strong> on farmers’ output<br />

In order to assess <strong>the</strong> overall policy <strong>impact</strong>, <strong>the</strong> first step is to estimate direct<br />

effects produced by policy <strong>reform</strong> on <strong>the</strong> cereal sector output, through price reduction.<br />

We assume that if <strong>the</strong>re had not been any policy <strong>reform</strong>, <strong>the</strong> cereal output, during<br />

<strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006, would have followed <strong>the</strong> trend (derived by linear regression)<br />

noticed in <strong>the</strong> period going from 1993 to 1999 which substantially coincides<br />

with <strong>the</strong> period in which “Mac Sharry” <strong>reform</strong> policy was operating. Output<br />

is expressed in constant 1997 prices since <strong>the</strong> regional I-O table is expressed in<br />

<strong>the</strong> same prices (Fig. 5.4).<br />

The total variation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal production generated by policy <strong>reform</strong> through<br />

price reduction (7.5% in 2000 and 15% in <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r years) is estimated multiplying<br />

percentage output variation induced by a decrease in intervention prices by<br />

forecasted output in <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> <strong>reform</strong>. Output percentage variation is obtained<br />

multiplying price elasticity with respect to output (0.25) by percentage<br />

price reduction.<br />

In Tab. 5.9, results from <strong>analysis</strong> are shown. As clearly emerges from <strong>the</strong> table,<br />

overall output for all <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006 is expected to be lower by 3.5% than<br />

forecasted output in <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> <strong>reform</strong>. The negative variation <strong>of</strong> output in <strong>the</strong><br />

cereal sector due to policy <strong>reform</strong> is minus 124 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire.<br />

133


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Fig. 5.4 – Past and forecasted trend <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal output, Marche (Italy), 1993-2006 (1997<br />

constant prices)<br />

Billion <strong>of</strong> Lire<br />

134<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

Past<br />

Forecasted<br />

(no <strong>reform</strong>)<br />

Forecasted<br />

(with <strong>reform</strong>)<br />

Tab. 5.9 – Direct effects <strong>of</strong> policy <strong>reform</strong> on <strong>the</strong> cereal sector output, Marche (Italy), 2000-<br />

2006 (1997 constant prices – billion <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TOT<br />

Output without <strong>reform</strong> 443 465 486 507 528 550 571 3,550<br />

∆Output due to price reduction -8 -17 -18 -19 -20 -21 -21 -124<br />

Output with <strong>reform</strong> 435 447 468 488 509 529 550 3,426<br />

% Variation -1.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.5<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

5.5.2 Assessing overall <strong>impact</strong> generated by European Policy<br />

Different versions <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> closed mixed-variable I-O model were developed using<br />

<strong>the</strong> 16 different regionalization methods previously illustrated 37 . These models<br />

were applied to estimate overall <strong>impact</strong> generated by negative output variation in<br />

<strong>the</strong> cereal sector induced by <strong>the</strong> European policy with reference to <strong>the</strong> Marche region<br />

and for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006. Results <strong>of</strong> this application are shown in Tab.<br />

5.10.<br />

On average, output variation estimated by various methods is minus 333 billion<br />

<strong>of</strong> Lire, income variation is minus 49 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire and employment variation is<br />

minus 6,141 units <strong>of</strong> labour. These results show that <strong>the</strong> European policy will<br />

generate in <strong>the</strong> Marche region for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006 a decrease in overall output<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region around by 3 times <strong>the</strong> initial variation <strong>of</strong> output in <strong>the</strong> cereal sector<br />

(10% <strong>of</strong> forecasted output without <strong>reform</strong>) and a decrease in overall employment<br />

by 1% <strong>of</strong> employment surveyed in 1999.<br />

Substantially, regionalization methods do not produce particularly different results.<br />

As for output, <strong>the</strong> predicted overall <strong>impact</strong> goes from a minimum value <strong>of</strong><br />

minus 225 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire to a maximum value <strong>of</strong> minus 399 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire. As for<br />

income, <strong>the</strong> minimum value is minus 30 billion <strong>of</strong> lire whilst <strong>the</strong> maximum one is<br />

minus 63 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire. Finally, with regard to employment, <strong>the</strong> interval is from<br />

minus 2,460 to minus 8,628 units <strong>of</strong> labour. The biggest discrepancy can be noted<br />

for employment (<strong>the</strong> maximum value is by 3.5 times <strong>the</strong> minimum), followed by<br />

income (2.1 times) and output (1.7 times).<br />

Similarity among methods is also confirmed by <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> variation coefficient.<br />

Results show that variability among methods in terms <strong>of</strong> results is contained.<br />

Higher values are measured with reference to employment (about 42%),<br />

followed by income (about 22%), and, finally, output (about 16%).<br />

Variability is different if one considers hybrid and non-survey methods separately.<br />

In fact, it results that variability within hybrid methods is quite low, while<br />

<strong>the</strong> degree <strong>of</strong> diversity within <strong>the</strong> group <strong>of</strong> non-survey methods appears to be<br />

higher. This would induce us to think that <strong>the</strong> considered hybrid methods represent<br />

a homogenous group while <strong>the</strong> non-survey methods taken into consideration<br />

are characterized by a bigger degree <strong>of</strong> heterogeneity.<br />

In terms <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> extent, it emerges that, on average, hybrid methods produce<br />

<strong>impact</strong>s which are higher than those derived by non-survey methods. This may be<br />

due to <strong>the</strong> fact that superior data used were generally bigger than mechanically<br />

obtained estimates.<br />

More information can be obtained ranking methods on <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>ir related<br />

<strong>impact</strong>s (Tab. 5.11).<br />

37 Type II output-to-output multipliers are provided in <strong>the</strong> appendix B.<br />

135


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Tab. 5.10 – Policy <strong>impact</strong> measured using 16 different regionalization methods, Marche<br />

(Italy), 2000-2006<br />

IMPACT<br />

136<br />

Negative<br />

output variation<br />

(billion <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Negative income variation<br />

(billion <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Negative employment<br />

variation (units)<br />

ALL METHODS<br />

Minimum 225 30 2,460<br />

Maximum 399 63 8,628<br />

Average 333 49 6,141<br />

VC* (%) 15.7 21.5 41.7<br />

NON-SURVEY METHODS<br />

Minimum 225 30 2,460<br />

Maximum 371 50 4,431<br />

Average 307 41 3,703<br />

VC (%) 20.0 20.9 18.5<br />

HYBRID METHODS<br />

Minimum 325 51 8,547<br />

Maximum 399 63 8,628<br />

Average 359 57 8,579<br />

VC (%) 6.6 8.5 0.3<br />

*VC=Variation Coefficient calculated as percentage ratio between standard deviation and average.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

Tab. 5.11 – Regionalization methods sorted by <strong>impact</strong> (negative variation)<br />

Output Income Employment<br />

Methods Bill. Lire Methods Bill. Lire Methods Units<br />

GRIT-SCILQ (H) 399 GRIT-SLQ (H) 63 GRIT-SCILQ (H) 8,628<br />

GRIT-SDP (H) 384 GRIT-SCILQ (H) 63 GRIT-FLQ (H) 8,602<br />

PLQ (NS) 371 GRIT-SDP (H) 61 GRIT-RLQ (H) 8,599<br />

SLQ (NS) 371 GRIT-RLQ (H) 57 GRIT-SLQ (H) 8,573<br />

GRIT-RLQ (H) 362 GRIT-WLQ (H) 56 GRIT-SDP (H) 8,565<br />

GRIT-SLQ (H) 359 GRIT-PLQ (H) 54 GRIT-CILQ (H) 8,563<br />

GRIT-WLQ (H) 354 GRIT-CILQ (H) 51 GRIT-PLQ (H) 8,558<br />

RLQ (NS) 350 GRIT-FLQ (H) 51 GRIT-WLQ (H) 8,547<br />

GRIT-CILQ (H) 350 PLQ (NS) 50 WLQ (NS) 4,431<br />

GRIT-PLQ (H) 339 SLQ (NS) 50 PLQ (NS) 4,223<br />

CILQ (NS) 339 RLQ (NS) 47 SLQ (NS) 4,223<br />

GRIT-FLQ (H) 325 CILQ (NS) 45 RLQ (NS) 3,961<br />

SCILQ (NS) 309 SCILQ (NS) 41 CILQ (NS) 3,854<br />

FLQ (NS) 257 FLQ (NS) 34 SCILQ (NS) 3,512<br />

WLQ (NS) 231 SDP (NS) 30 FLQ (NS) 2,958<br />

SDP (NS) 225 WLQ (NS) 30 SDP (NS) 2,460<br />

Note: NS – Non-survey method; H – Hybrid methods<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

The following considerations can be made:<br />

• As for output, SLQ, PLQ, RLQ and CILQ produce results included in <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>impact</strong> interval <strong>of</strong> hybrid methods, while FLQ, SDP and WLQ produce<br />

much lower results. With regard to income, two different groups can be<br />

identified: hybrid methods and non-survey methods. These latter produce<br />

lower <strong>impact</strong>s. This clear distinction is due to used income coefficients<br />

which take bigger values in <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> hybrid methods. Therefore, differences<br />

among non-survey and hybrid methods are emphasised. As for employment,<br />

a clear distinction between non-survey and hybrid methods can<br />

be noted, again. Also in this case, non-survey methods produce lower <strong>impact</strong>.<br />

The reason for this can be found in <strong>the</strong> bigger value <strong>of</strong> employment<br />

coefficients used by hybrid methods. In <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> both employment and<br />

income, SLQ and PLQ confirm to yield results similar to hybrid methods,<br />

while SCILQ, FLQ, SDP tend to produce much lower <strong>impact</strong>s. In terms <strong>of</strong><br />

employment, also WLQ produces results closer to those <strong>of</strong> hybrid method,<br />

but this depends on <strong>the</strong> bigger value <strong>of</strong> employment coefficients used in<br />

<strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> WLQ.<br />

• The ranking among methods confirms that which emerges from literature<br />

with reference to <strong>the</strong> general tendency <strong>of</strong> SLQ to overestimate multipliers<br />

if compared to o<strong>the</strong>r non-survey methods. However, this conclusion has<br />

<strong>of</strong>ten been interpreted as a declaration <strong>of</strong> failure <strong>of</strong> SLQ in estimating reliable<br />

multipliers (Johns and Leat, 1987). But if it is true that hybrid methods<br />

are <strong>the</strong> best ones to produce reliable results, results show that SLQ and<br />

its variants (PLQ and WLQ, this latter in <strong>the</strong> case <strong>of</strong> employment), are <strong>the</strong><br />

best ones among non-survey methods, followed by RLQ, CILQ, SCILQ,<br />

FLQ and, finally, SDP. Therefore, SDP and all location quotients based on<br />

cell-by-cell adjustment would perform worse. Notwithstanding, this outcome<br />

may be affected by relationship between superior data and mechanical<br />

estimates. If superior data had been smaller than mechanical estimates,<br />

results could have been different. In any case, that which emerges is that<br />

<strong>the</strong> general tendency <strong>of</strong> SLQ (and its variants) to overestimate multipliers<br />

may be, in some cases, an advantage and not a defect.<br />

5.5.3 Assessing overall sectoral <strong>impact</strong> produced by European Policy<br />

A great advantage <strong>of</strong> I-O <strong>analysis</strong> is <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> analysing <strong>impact</strong> sector<br />

by sector. As emerges from Tab. 5.12, on average, <strong>the</strong> cereal sector registers <strong>the</strong><br />

highest negative variation <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment. As for output and<br />

income, o<strong>the</strong>r sectors that suffer from <strong>the</strong> negative variation <strong>of</strong> output in <strong>the</strong> cereal<br />

sector are household sector (but only in terms <strong>of</strong> output), o<strong>the</strong>r services, o<strong>the</strong>r ag-<br />

137


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

ricultural sub-sectors and trade. In terms <strong>of</strong> employment, o<strong>the</strong>r agricultural subsectors<br />

along with food and tobacco, transport and communication and trade are<br />

those that, after <strong>the</strong> cereal sector, undergo major losses.<br />

While variability among methods in terms <strong>of</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong> is not particularly<br />

high, variability in terms <strong>of</strong> sectoral <strong>impact</strong> is instead quite high. Methods demonstrate<br />

to yield very disparate estimates at sectoral level. Sectors registering <strong>the</strong><br />

highest variability (over 200%) are mining and household sector.<br />

As results from <strong>the</strong> comparison <strong>of</strong> Tab. 5.13 and Tab. 5.14, <strong>the</strong> high sector<br />

variability among all methods depends, above all, on a higher degree <strong>of</strong> sector<br />

dispersion among non-survey methods. On <strong>the</strong> contrary, hybrid methods show a<br />

relatively low level <strong>of</strong> sector variability albeit <strong>the</strong>re is a considerable divergence<br />

for some sectors such as mining and household sector, explaining high variability<br />

among all methods about <strong>the</strong>se sectors.<br />

5.5.4 Analysing relationships among regionalization methods<br />

The target <strong>of</strong> this section is to attempt to identify relationships existing among<br />

regionalization methods. Towards this aim, two statistical procedures are applied:<br />

factor <strong>analysis</strong> and <strong>the</strong> multidimensional scaling procedure. These are analyses<br />

aimed at reducing original dimensions <strong>of</strong> a problem, using variance an covariance<br />

matrix (factor <strong>analysis</strong>) and matrix <strong>of</strong> distances (<strong>the</strong> multidimensional scaling procedure).<br />

Both are useful to identify clusters <strong>of</strong> methods.<br />

Factor <strong>analysis</strong> 38 is used to analyse correlation among methods examining results<br />

in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment separately and trying to extract<br />

<strong>the</strong> underlying components for facilitating clustering. Matrices <strong>of</strong> correlation<br />

among methods are calculated using <strong>impact</strong>s by sector as input data.<br />

For all kinds <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>, it emerges that two factors are sufficient to explain relationships<br />

among methods. This demonstrates that methods are highly correlated<br />

to each o<strong>the</strong>r and is consistent with <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> variability among methods. Extracted<br />

factors are transformed by rotation to make <strong>the</strong>m more interpretable. Results<br />

from factor <strong>analysis</strong> are shown in Fig. 5.5, Fig. 5.6, Fig. 5.7.<br />

38 Factor <strong>analysis</strong> is a statistical technique used to identify (or extract) a relatively small number <strong>of</strong> factors<br />

that can be used to represent relationships among sets <strong>of</strong> many interrelated variables. The basic assumption is<br />

that underlying dimensions, or factors, can be used to explain complex phenomena. Observed correlations<br />

between variables result from <strong>the</strong>ir sharing <strong>the</strong>se factors. The procedure was applied using <strong>the</strong> S<strong>of</strong>tware<br />

Package SPSS 11.5 (FACTOR procedure).<br />

138


Tab. 5.12 – Negative average variation due to policy <strong>impact</strong> by sector and degree <strong>of</strong> dispersion among regionalization methods,<br />

Marche (Italy), 2000-2006<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

Bill. Lire VC* (%)<br />

Income<br />

Bill. Lire VC (%)<br />

Employment<br />

Units VC (%)<br />

Cereals 124.8 0.0 23.8 26.9 5,040.5 59.9<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 39.8 87.1 5.5 91.0 710.5 63.1<br />

Agriculture 164.6 21.1 29.3 15.4 5,751.0 47.6<br />

Mining 1.7 290.5 0.1 290.5 8.0 126.6<br />

Food and tobacco 13.1 64.1 1.1 64.1 115.5 124.7<br />

Textile products and apparel 1.7 67.1 0.3 67.1 1.4 146.6<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 2.9 43.9 0.4 43.9 3.0 51.4<br />

Timber and furniture 0.8 84.2 0.1 87.0 3.2 118.1<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 1.5 91.9 0.2 91.9 8.0 113.2<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 5.5 148.4 0.1 154.3 3.0 130.2<br />

Chemicals 13.9 100.8 1.5 100.3 4.6 101.5<br />

Rubber and plastic products 1.3 110.0 0.2 114.2 0.3 131.7<br />

Non-metal mineral products 0.5 120.7 0.1 116.6 0.4 93.4<br />

Metal products 1.0 100.5 0.2 105.4 1.2 103.2<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 0.1 88.5 0.0 89.5 0.5 195.2<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 1.5 98.4 0.2 96.1 2.2 73.8<br />

Transportation equipment 2.0 121.3 0.3 118.9 1.2 105.3<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0.9 82.0 0.1 81.7 3.7 54.1<br />

Energy and water 2.4 126.8 0.4 123.2 0.7 111.4<br />

Construction 1.2 48.3 0.2 48.3 3.0 65.8<br />

Trade 30.0 32.2 4.9 32.2 61.7 94.6<br />

Hotels and businesses 5.2 21.9 0.5 21.9 27.8 103.3<br />

Transport and communication 7.2 64.6 1.7 64.6 71.5 114.1<br />

Credit and insurance 5.5 97.5 1.3 97.5 17.1 111.1<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 12.0 51.6 1.7 43.2 23.3 31.9<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 7.1 35.7 2.9 36.6 2.0 47.7<br />

Household sector 48.9 21.5 0.9 200.5 26.9 21.5<br />

* Variation coefficient obtained as percentage ratio between standard deviation and average<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. 5.13 – Negative average variation due to policy <strong>impact</strong> by sector and degree <strong>of</strong> dispersion among regionalization hybrid<br />

methods, Marche (Italy), 2000-2006<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

Bill. Lire VC* (%)<br />

Income<br />

Bill. Lire VC (%)<br />

Employment<br />

Units VC (%)<br />

Cereals 124.8 0.0 30.0 0.0 7,921.6 0.0<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 16.4 2.5 2.0 2.5 449.0 2.5<br />

Agriculture 141.2 0.3 32.0 0.2 8,370.6 0.1<br />

Mining 3.3 212.9 0.2 212.9 0.8 212.9<br />

Food and tobacco 20.3 20.2 1.7 20.2 6.9 20.2<br />

Textile products and apparel 2.5 43.3 0.4 43.3 1.4 43.3<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 3.9 26.9 0.5 26.9 2.1 26.9<br />

Timber and furniture 0.3 167.1 0.0 167.1 0.1 167.1<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 2.6 46.2 0.4 46.2 1.2 46.2<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 10.7 84.7 0.3 84.7 0.1 84.7<br />

Chemicals 27.4 8.7 3.0 8.7 1.6 8.7<br />

Rubber and plastic products 2.4 55.1 0.4 55.1 0.4 55.1<br />

Non-metal mineral products 1.0 65.1 0.2 65.1 0.5 65.1<br />

Metal products 1.7 60.0 0.3 60.0 0.9 60.0<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 0.1 106.1 0.0 106.1 0.0 106.1<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 2.6 58.9 0.4 58.9 1.0 58.9<br />

Transportation equipment 3.6 64.7 0.5 64.7 0.2 64.7<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1.1 81.8 0.1 81.8 2.6 81.8<br />

Energy and water 4.5 65.2 0.7 65.2 0.1 65.2<br />

Construction 1.2 55.5 0.2 55.5 4.0 55.5<br />

Trade 30.0 22.2 4.9 22.2 109.0 22.2<br />

Hotels and businesses 5.9 13.6 0.6 13.6 5.3 13.6<br />

Transport and communication 11.3 23.8 2.7 23.8 10.5 23.8<br />

Credit and insurance 8.9 61.4 2.1 61.4 2.9 61.4<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 8.0 18.7 1.3 18.7 24.3 18.7<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 7.6 43.1 2.5 43.1 1.6 43.1<br />

Household sector 56.8 8.5 1.1 230.0 31.2 8.5<br />

* Variation coefficient obtained as percentage ratio between standard deviation and average<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. 5.14 – Negative average variation due to policy <strong>impact</strong> by sector and degree <strong>of</strong> dispersion among regionalization nonsurvey<br />

methods, Marche (Italy), 2000-2006<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

Bill. Lire VC* (%)<br />

Income<br />

Bill. Lire VC (%)<br />

Employment<br />

Units VC (%)<br />

Cereals 124.8 0.0 17.6 0.0 2,159.3 35.5<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 63.3 57.5 8.9 57.5 972.1 53.9<br />

Agriculture 188.1 19.3 26.5 19.3 3,131.4 20.2<br />

Mining 0.2 27.7 0.0 27.7 15.2 64.8<br />

Food and tobacco 5.8 63.7 0.5 63.7 224.1 59.0<br />

Textile products and apparel 0.9 36.3 0.1 36.3 1.3 217.8<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1.9 19.8 0.3 19.8 4.0 43.7<br />

Timber and furniture 1.4 25.4 0.2 32.6 6.2 47.8<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 0.4 64.4 0.1 64.4 14.8 55.8<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 0.3 253.9 0.0 121.7 5.8 62.4<br />

Chemicals 0.5 248.4 0.1 253.1 7.6 68.0<br />

Rubber and plastic products 0.2 126.7 0.0 62.7 0.2 236.0<br />

Non-metal mineral products 0.1 84.1 0.0 138.3 0.2 108.8<br />

Metal products 0.3 55.5 0.0 26.6 1.6 105.0<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 0.1 71.0 0.0 77.2 1.0 128.2<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 0.5 78.1 0.1 108.8 3.3 40.7<br />

Transportation equipment 0.4 271.1 0.1 274.9 2.3 45.6<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0.6 66.4 0.1 42.9 4.7 24.4<br />

Energy and water 0.2 277.7 0.1 279.6 1.2 59.5<br />

Construction 1.1 42.0 0.2 42.0 2.0 58.3<br />

Trade 30.1 41.4 5.0 41.4 14.3 278.1<br />

Hotels and businesses 4.5 22.9 0.5 22.9 50.4 49.3<br />

Transport and communication 3.1 32.7 0.7 32.7 132.5 57.3<br />

Credit and insurance 2.1 111.2 0.5 111.2 31.2 56.4<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 15.9 41.1 2.2 39.4 22.3 43.7<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 6.6 23.0 3.2 29.5 2.4 42.6<br />

Household sector 41.1 20.9 0.7 39.4 22.6 20.9<br />

* Variation coefficient obtained as percentage ratio between standard deviation and average<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

142<br />

Factor 2 - Impact<br />

1<br />

0.9<br />

0.8<br />

0.7<br />

0.6<br />

0.5<br />

0.4<br />

0.3<br />

0.2<br />

0.1<br />

Fig. 5.5 – Plot <strong>of</strong> rotated factor matrix – output <strong>impact</strong><br />

TRADITIONAL LQ<br />

HYBRID & WLQ<br />

0<br />

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5<br />

Factor 1 - Accuracy<br />

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1<br />

(1) Explained variance by Factor 1 and Factor 2 is 91.9% and 6.4%, respectively.<br />

(2) Hybrid cluster contains GRIT-SLQ, GRIT-PLQ, GRIT-CILQ, GRIT-RLQ, GRIT-SCILQ, GRIT-FLQ, GRIT-WLQ, GRIT-SDP.<br />

(3) Traditional-LQ cluster contains : SLQ, PLQ, CILQ, RLQ.<br />

Factor 2 - Impact<br />

1<br />

0.9<br />

0.8<br />

0.7<br />

0.6<br />

0.5<br />

0.4<br />

0.3<br />

0.2<br />

0.1<br />

SCILQ<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

Fig. 5.6 – Plot <strong>of</strong> rotated factor matrix – income <strong>impact</strong><br />

TRADITIONAL LQ<br />

0<br />

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5<br />

Factor 1 - Accuracy<br />

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1<br />

SDP<br />

SCILQ<br />

SDP<br />

FLQ<br />

FLQ<br />

HYBRID & WLQ<br />

(1) Explained variance by Factor 1 and Factor 2 is 91.9% and 7.3%, respectively.<br />

(2) Hybrid cluster contains GRIT-SLQ, GRIT-PLQ, GRIT-CILQ, GRIT-RLQ, GRIT-SCILQ, GRIT-FLQ, GRIT-WLQ, GRIT-SDP.<br />

(3) Traditional-LQ cluster contains : SLQ, PLQ, CILQ, RLQ.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Factor 2 - Impact<br />

An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

1<br />

0.9<br />

0.8<br />

0.7<br />

0.6<br />

0.5<br />

0.4<br />

0.3<br />

0.2<br />

0.1<br />

Fig. 5.7 – Plot <strong>of</strong> rotated factor matrix – employment <strong>impact</strong><br />

TRADITIONAL LQ<br />

HYBRID & WLQ<br />

0<br />

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5<br />

Factor 1 - Accuracy<br />

0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1<br />

(1) Explained variance by Factor 1 and Factor 2 is 93.2% and 6.8%, respectively.<br />

(2) Hybrid cluster contains GRIT-SLQ, GRIT-PLQ, GRIT-CILQ, GRIT-RLQ, GRIT-SCILQ, GRIT-FLQ, GRIT-WLQ, GRIT-SDP.<br />

(3) Traditional-LQ cluster contains : SLQ, PLQ, CILQ, RLQ.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

Five clusters <strong>of</strong> methods can be identified: traditional location quotients (SLQ,<br />

PLQ, CILQ, RLQ); SCILQ; FLQ; SDP and hybrid methods along with WLQ. For<br />

all kinds <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>, results show that hybrid methods and WLQ are more correlated<br />

to factor 1, while traditional location quotients (SLQ, PLQ, CILQ, RLQ) are<br />

more correlated to factor 2. SCILQ, FLQ and SDP are located between traditional<br />

LQ and hybrid methods.<br />

Assuming that hybrid methods tend to produce reliable I-O tables, factor 1<br />

could be interpreted as degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy. Therefore, WLQ would perform better<br />

than o<strong>the</strong>r non-survey methods, followed by SDP and FLQ. While SCILQ and<br />

traditional location quotients would perform worse.<br />

On <strong>the</strong> contrary, factor 2 could be interpreted as extent <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>. This would<br />

confirm that which emerges from <strong>the</strong> literature about <strong>the</strong> general tendency <strong>of</strong> location<br />

quotients (in particular SLQ) to overestimate multipliers.<br />

SCILQ<br />

SDP<br />

FLQ<br />

143


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

The multidimensional scaling procedure 39 is employed to identify <strong>the</strong> overall<br />

degree <strong>of</strong> dissimilarity existing among regionalization methods, taking into consideration<br />

all <strong>the</strong> three kinds <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> (output, income and employment) and all<br />

sectors simultaneously. First, matrices <strong>of</strong> distances among regionalization methods<br />

in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment are calculated. Distances among<br />

methods are derived as Euclidean distances 40 . Afterwards, <strong>the</strong> multidimensional<br />

scaling procedure is applied on <strong>the</strong> three distance matrices jointly. Graphical results<br />

are shown in Fig. 5.8.<br />

Dimension 2 - Impact<br />

144<br />

Fig. 5.8 – Plot <strong>of</strong> two-dimensional solution – output, income and employment <strong>impact</strong>s<br />

(Multidimensional Scaling Procedure)<br />

0<br />

-1 -0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8<br />

FLQ<br />

TRADITIONAL LQ<br />

SDP<br />

SCILQ<br />

WLQ<br />

0,4<br />

0,3<br />

0,2<br />

0,1<br />

-0,1<br />

-0,2<br />

-0,3<br />

-0,4<br />

-0,5<br />

-0,6<br />

-0,7<br />

Dimension 1 - Accuracy<br />

HYBRID<br />

(1) Measures <strong>of</strong> Fit – S-Stress: 0.06; Explained dispersion: 0.96.<br />

(2) Hybrid cluster contains GRIT-SLQ, GRIT-PLQ, GRIT-CILQ, GRIT-RLQ, GRIT-SCILQ, GRIT-FLQ, GRIT-WLQ, GRIT-SDP.<br />

(3) Traditional-LQ cluster contains : SLQ, PLQ, CILQ, RLQ.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration<br />

39 This procedure attempts to find a structure from a set <strong>of</strong> distance measures among objects. This operation is<br />

carried out assigning observations to specific positions within a reduced conceptual space, in order to make<br />

distances among points on <strong>the</strong> space correspond to specified dissimilarities as much as possible. In this way,<br />

it is possible to obtain a representation <strong>of</strong> least-squares <strong>of</strong> objects within <strong>the</strong> space, which mostly helps to understand<br />

data in a better way. The procedure was applied using <strong>the</strong> S<strong>of</strong>tware Package SPSS 11.5 (PROX-<br />

SCAL procedure).<br />

40 Several distance measures could be adopted (see chapter four). However, in order to avoid complicating <strong>the</strong><br />

reading <strong>of</strong> results, we decided to adopt only one measure, choosing one <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> most used.


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

Explained dispersion is very high, being near 100%. This means that <strong>the</strong> syn<strong>the</strong>sized<br />

structure <strong>of</strong> distances among methods well reproduces structures associated<br />

to each kind <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>.<br />

On <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> results from applying <strong>the</strong> multidimensional scaling procedure,<br />

six categories <strong>of</strong> methods can be identified: hybrid methods; WLQ; SDP; FLQ;<br />

SCILQ and, finally, traditional LQs. Differently from factor <strong>analysis</strong>, <strong>the</strong> multidimensional<br />

scaling procedure allows highlighting differences existing between<br />

WLQ and hybrid methods.<br />

It results that, with respect to dimension 1, traditional LQs and hybrid methods<br />

are very distant to each o<strong>the</strong>r, while, with respect to dimension 2, WLQ is <strong>the</strong><br />

most distant non-survey method from hybrid methods. Again, assuming that hybrid<br />

methods are <strong>the</strong> most reliable methods among indirect regionalization methods,<br />

dimension 1 can be interpreted as degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy. Therefore, traditional<br />

LQs would be less accurate, while WLQ would reproduce better <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong><br />

regional tables incorporating superior data. On <strong>the</strong> contrary, dimension 2 can be<br />

interpreted as extent <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>. Accordingly, WLQ, followed by SDP and FLQ,<br />

would tend to understate <strong>impact</strong>s. This is substantially consistent with <strong>the</strong> ranking<br />

<strong>of</strong> methods based on <strong>the</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>.<br />

Conclusions from factor <strong>analysis</strong> and <strong>the</strong> multidimensional scaling procedure<br />

are basically coherent with each o<strong>the</strong>r and can be summarised as follows:<br />

• The used methods <strong>of</strong> regionalization can be regrouped into a smaller number<br />

<strong>of</strong> classes <strong>of</strong> methods. Accordingly, some methods can be neglected<br />

since <strong>the</strong>y are very similar to each o<strong>the</strong>r. Six categories can be identified:<br />

hybrid methods; WLQ; SDP; FLQ; SCILQ and traditional location quotients<br />

(SLQ, PLQ, RLQ, CILQ).<br />

• Hybrid methods (here represented by GRIT versions) are substantially invariant<br />

with respect to <strong>the</strong> non-survey method used within <strong>the</strong> procedure.<br />

In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>the</strong> kind <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> employed non-survey method does not affect<br />

significantly results. This depends on insertion <strong>of</strong> superior data and<br />

successive balancing which tend to level considerably <strong>the</strong> initial differences<br />

characterizing different methods in order to make <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> regional table consistent with <strong>the</strong> system <strong>of</strong> superior data.<br />

• If it is true that hybrid methods better replicate <strong>the</strong> survey-based ones and<br />

<strong>the</strong>refore produce more reliable results, <strong>the</strong>n, performances <strong>of</strong> non-survey<br />

methods can be evaluated by comparing <strong>the</strong>se latter with hybrid methods.<br />

Once accepted this, it results that WLQ is <strong>the</strong> most accurate among nonsurvey-methods.<br />

That can be partially explained by <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> some superior<br />

data (consumption and output) associated to WLQ and by an attempt<br />

implicit to this LQ to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> different pattern <strong>of</strong> consumption<br />

and production existing between nation and region. However, a relevant<br />

145


An Analysis <strong>of</strong> Impact <strong>of</strong> CAP Reform Using Different Regionalization Methods<br />

146<br />

disadvantage is that it tends to underestimate sectoral <strong>impact</strong>s. Instead,<br />

traditional location quotients (in particular SLQ) are those which perform<br />

worse: <strong>the</strong>y are <strong>the</strong> less accurate and, at <strong>the</strong> same time, tend to overestimate<br />

<strong>impact</strong>s. However, as <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong><br />

shows, this tendency cannot always be considered as a disadvantage. In<br />

fact, if <strong>the</strong> objective is to estimate <strong>the</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong> and superior data are<br />

generally bigger than mechanical estimates, <strong>the</strong>n SLQ or o<strong>the</strong>r traditional<br />

LQs can produce estimates which are closer to “real” <strong>impact</strong>s when compared<br />

to o<strong>the</strong>r non-survey methods. As for <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r methods analysed, between<br />

WLQ and traditional location quotients, we find SDP, FLQ and<br />

SCILQ. Therefore, both SCILQ and, above all, FLQ may be considered<br />

improved versions <strong>of</strong> traditional LQs. Moreover, SDP would seem to perform<br />

better than all location quotients (except for WLQ).


6 Concluding Remarks<br />

Construction <strong>of</strong> regional I-O tables implies <strong>the</strong> collection <strong>of</strong> a considerable<br />

volume <strong>of</strong> information that, at a local level, is <strong>of</strong>ten unavailable. For this reason,<br />

different approaches for deriving regional tables have been introduced during <strong>the</strong><br />

course <strong>of</strong> time. Historically, in <strong>the</strong> early 1950s, when <strong>the</strong> main interest was in applying<br />

regionally <strong>the</strong> Leontief input-output system, <strong>the</strong> first applied approach was<br />

that based on non-survey techniques. The 1960s can be considered <strong>the</strong> “golden<br />

age” <strong>of</strong> survey-based models: many tables were derived by carrying out surveys.<br />

However, in <strong>the</strong> late sixties and in <strong>the</strong> seventies, because <strong>of</strong> high costs and doubts<br />

in terms <strong>of</strong> accuracy related to survey-based tables and considering <strong>the</strong> increasing<br />

interest in studying regional economies, non-survey methods were widely used.<br />

They allowed deriving tables easily and at a low cost. Never<strong>the</strong>less, <strong>the</strong>y posed<br />

problems in terms <strong>of</strong> reliability and <strong>the</strong>oretical validity. In <strong>the</strong> late seventies, <strong>the</strong>re<br />

emerged <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> measuring multipliers without constructing regional tables<br />

by <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> short-cut techniques. That would have made all techniques<br />

aimed at deriving regional tables useless. However, this possibility was so widely<br />

contested that, in <strong>the</strong> middle <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1980s, it was definitively abandoned.<br />

Meanwhile, <strong>the</strong> idea <strong>of</strong> a hybrid approach <strong>cap</strong>able <strong>of</strong> joining advantages associated<br />

to survey and non-survey methods, eliminating related disadvantages, was<br />

emerging. At <strong>the</strong> end <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> seventies, <strong>the</strong> first real hybrid method, based on systematic<br />

insertion <strong>of</strong> exogenous information, appeared with <strong>the</strong> introduction <strong>of</strong><br />

GRIT methodology (Jensen et al., 1979). In <strong>the</strong> 1980s, fur<strong>the</strong>r GRIT versions<br />

were introduced and <strong>the</strong> <strong>the</strong>oretical system behind hybrid models was formulated.<br />

Moreover, improvements <strong>of</strong> non-survey methods were suggested by introducing,<br />

for instance, <strong>the</strong> West’s SLQ and regional purchase coefficients. Starting from <strong>the</strong><br />

middle <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> 1980s, pre-packaged models based on non-survey models were developed<br />

and increasingly used. They were referred to as ready-made models. The<br />

1990s were dominated by two different approaches: <strong>the</strong> hybrid approach and<br />

ready-made models. However, efforts to improve <strong>the</strong> attractiveness <strong>of</strong> non-survey<br />

methods did not cease and variants <strong>of</strong> location quotients were introduced (i.e.<br />

symmetric cross industry location quotient and <strong>the</strong> Flegg location quotient). In <strong>the</strong>


Concluding Remarks<br />

late nineties, <strong>the</strong> “make and use” approach, opposed to <strong>the</strong> institutional approach,<br />

was suggested. At present, ready-made models and hybrid techniques are <strong>the</strong> most<br />

supported. The institutional hybrid approach is preferred to <strong>the</strong> make and use format,<br />

but <strong>the</strong> increasing attention to this latter makes us think that <strong>the</strong>re could be a<br />

movement <strong>of</strong> interest towards this approach.<br />

Along with <strong>the</strong> construction <strong>of</strong> regional tables, a fur<strong>the</strong>r problem about which<br />

researchers worried during <strong>the</strong> course <strong>of</strong> time was to evaluate <strong>the</strong> performances <strong>of</strong><br />

methods <strong>of</strong> regionalization. This problem raises several questions. Firstly, a comparison<br />

base is absolutely necessary. Analysts generally used survey-based tables<br />

for this objective. However, <strong>the</strong>se tables could be even less accurate than nonsurvey<br />

models in estimating some cells, given <strong>the</strong> possibility <strong>of</strong> sampling errors,<br />

reconciliation adjustments, indirect estimation <strong>of</strong> some aggregates and various arbitrary<br />

procedures adopted to construct survey-based tables. Secondly, appropriate<br />

statistics are needed to measure distances between matrices. Unfortunately, <strong>the</strong>re<br />

are a lot <strong>of</strong> statistics than can be used, each <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m with different properties and<br />

characteristics. Therefore, any comparison is affected by used statistics. Thirdly,<br />

evaluation <strong>of</strong> performances is conditioned by <strong>the</strong> purpose that an input-output table<br />

must serve. Whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> aim was to produce accurate regional accounts, <strong>the</strong><br />

comparison could be made with a survey-based table. But if <strong>the</strong> aim was only to<br />

represent <strong>the</strong> structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> overall regional economy, a better comparison would<br />

be between estimated <strong>impact</strong>s and real <strong>impact</strong>s, although it has to be considered<br />

that unpredictable changes affecting real <strong>impact</strong>s could alter <strong>the</strong> validity <strong>of</strong> this<br />

comparison.<br />

Empirical studies carried out to evaluate performances <strong>of</strong> regionalization<br />

methods are relatively few, mainly because <strong>of</strong> lack <strong>of</strong> sufficient and reliable survey<br />

data. Some <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>m are aimed at establishing <strong>the</strong> effectiveness <strong>of</strong> only one<br />

method which <strong>of</strong>ten coincides with <strong>the</strong> method suggested within <strong>the</strong>se studies.<br />

O<strong>the</strong>rs are more general since <strong>the</strong>y try to evaluate characteristics <strong>of</strong> more methods<br />

simultaneously. In any case, results from empirical evidence cannot be considered<br />

conclusive since <strong>the</strong>y take account <strong>of</strong> different batteries <strong>of</strong> methods and different<br />

measures <strong>of</strong> comparison. However, a common result would seem to be <strong>the</strong> superiority<br />

<strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> RAS technique in comparison with o<strong>the</strong>r methods, although we are<br />

not sure that <strong>the</strong> RAS technique is <strong>the</strong> best one among hybrid methods. Of purely<br />

non-survey methods, SLQ appears to be <strong>the</strong> most effective method. FLQ is a<br />

promising technique since it demonstrated to outperform traditional location quotients.<br />

Never<strong>the</strong>less, <strong>the</strong> value <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> parameter in which FLQ is based could be<br />

inadequate for regions o<strong>the</strong>r than those for which <strong>the</strong> value was estimated. Accordingly,<br />

fur<strong>the</strong>r work is necessary. Anyway, <strong>the</strong> fact that empirical evidence has<br />

shown that <strong>the</strong> simplest version <strong>of</strong> location quotients performs better than o<strong>the</strong>r<br />

methods requiring more information, like <strong>the</strong> Supply-Demand Pool, can be an advantage.<br />

This is because data requested by traditional location quotients (em-<br />

148


Concluding Remarks<br />

ployment data) are <strong>of</strong>ten <strong>the</strong> only data that are available at <strong>the</strong> highest level <strong>of</strong> sector<br />

disaggregation and at both regional and national levels.<br />

This research has attempted to compare a large battery <strong>of</strong> methods <strong>of</strong> regionalization<br />

both hybrid methods and non-survey methods in terms <strong>of</strong> prediction <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>,<br />

without having a survey-based table as a comparison base. More specifically,<br />

<strong>the</strong> purpose was to verify <strong>the</strong> <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> using alternative approaches<br />

for regionalizing tables. For this objective, a concrete case was considered. Impacts<br />

to be evaluated were effects in terms <strong>of</strong> output, income and employment<br />

produced by CAP’s decisions related to a reduction <strong>of</strong> intervention price in <strong>the</strong> cereal<br />

market, during <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006, on <strong>the</strong> overall economy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Italian<br />

Marche region.<br />

To estimate <strong>the</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong> generated by <strong>the</strong> variation <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> cereal output<br />

induced by policy, first, a multi-output and multi-input model <strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it maximization<br />

was estimated. Through this model, it was possible to derive own price elasticity<br />

with respect to <strong>the</strong> cereal output as a measure <strong>of</strong> degree <strong>of</strong> farmers’ responsiveness<br />

towards price changes. Using price elasticity, we found that negative<br />

variation <strong>of</strong> output induced by policy for all <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006 will be minus<br />

124 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire (3.5% <strong>of</strong> forecasted output in <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> policy <strong>reform</strong>).<br />

Then, a closed mixed-variable I-O model was applied using 16 different regionalization<br />

methods. Related results can be analysed from two different standpoints:<br />

policy information and methodological information.<br />

In terms <strong>of</strong> policy information, results show that, on average, output variation<br />

estimated by various methods is minus 333 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire, income variation is<br />

minus 49 billion <strong>of</strong> Lire and employment variation is minus 6,141 units <strong>of</strong> labour.<br />

These results show that <strong>the</strong> European policy will generate in <strong>the</strong> Marche region<br />

for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006 a decrease in overall output <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> region around by 3<br />

times <strong>the</strong> initial variation <strong>of</strong> output in <strong>the</strong> cereal sector (10% <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> forecasted output<br />

in <strong>the</strong> absence <strong>of</strong> policy <strong>reform</strong>) and a decrease in overall employment by 1%<br />

<strong>of</strong> employment surveyed in 1999. As is logical to expect, <strong>the</strong> cereal sector will<br />

register <strong>the</strong> highest negative variation <strong>of</strong> output, employment and income. As for<br />

output and income, o<strong>the</strong>r sectors that will suffer from <strong>the</strong> negative variation <strong>of</strong><br />

output in <strong>the</strong> cereal sector will be <strong>the</strong> household sector (but only in terms <strong>of</strong> output),<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r services, o<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors and trade. In terms <strong>of</strong> employment,<br />

o<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors along with food and tobacco, transport and<br />

communication and trade will be those that, after <strong>the</strong> cereal sector, will undergo<br />

major losses.<br />

From <strong>the</strong> methodological point <strong>of</strong> view, methods were compared in terms <strong>of</strong><br />

both overall <strong>impact</strong> and <strong>impact</strong> sector by sector.<br />

149


Concluding Remarks<br />

150<br />

As for overall <strong>impact</strong>, two main considerations can be made:<br />

(a) Substantially, regionalization methods do not produce particularly different<br />

results. This is confirmed by <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong> range and variability<br />

among methods (measured by a variation coefficient). Hybrid methods are<br />

more similar to each o<strong>the</strong>r while non-survey methods present a higher degree<br />

<strong>of</strong> heterogeneity.<br />

(b) The ranking among methods based on <strong>the</strong> extent <strong>of</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong> confirms<br />

that which emerges from literature with reference to a general tendency <strong>of</strong><br />

SLQ to overestimate multipliers if compared to o<strong>the</strong>r non-survey methods.<br />

However, this conclusion has <strong>of</strong>ten been interpreted as a declaration <strong>of</strong> failure<br />

<strong>of</strong> SLQ in estimating reliable multipliers (Johns and Leat, 1989). But if it<br />

is true that hybrid methods are <strong>the</strong> best ones to produce reliable results, results<br />

show that SLQ and its variants, producing results similar to those related<br />

to hybrid methods, are <strong>the</strong> best ones among non-survey methods, followed<br />

by RLQ, CILQ, SCILQ, FLQ and, finally, SDP. Therefore, SDP and<br />

all location quotients based on cell-by-cell adjustments would perform<br />

worse. Notwithstanding, this outcome may be affected by a relationship between<br />

superior data and mechanical estimates. In effect, superior data were<br />

generally bigger than mechanically obtained estimates. If superior data had<br />

been smaller than mechanical estimates, results could have been different. In<br />

any case, that which emerges is that <strong>the</strong> general tendency <strong>of</strong> SLQ (and its<br />

variants) to overestimate multipliers may be, in some cases, an advantage<br />

and not a defect.<br />

In terms <strong>of</strong> sectoral <strong>impact</strong>s, it emerged that variability is much higher than that<br />

observed in terms <strong>of</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong>. Non-survey methods show a much higher<br />

level <strong>of</strong> sector dispersion than hybrid methods, confirming <strong>the</strong> characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />

bigger homogeneity existing among hybrid methods. The relationships exiting<br />

among methods were studied by applying factor <strong>analysis</strong> and <strong>the</strong> multidimensional<br />

scaling procedure. These analyses allowed identifying two only dimensions<br />

or factors <strong>cap</strong>able <strong>of</strong> explaining relationships between methods: extent <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong><br />

and degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy. On <strong>the</strong> basis <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se factors, it was possible to visualize<br />

methods on a two-dimensional plot.


Results showed that:<br />

Concluding Remarks<br />

(a) The used methods <strong>of</strong> regionalization can be regrouped into a smaller number<br />

<strong>of</strong> classes <strong>of</strong> methods. Accordingly, some methods can be neglected since<br />

<strong>the</strong>y are very similar to each o<strong>the</strong>r. Six categories can be identified: hybrid<br />

methods (here represented by GRIT versions), WLQ, SDP, FLQ, SCILQ<br />

and traditional location quotients (SLQ, PLQ, RLQ, CILQ).<br />

(b) Hybrid methods, being very close to each o<strong>the</strong>r, demonstrate to be substantially<br />

invariant with respect to <strong>the</strong> non-survey method used within <strong>the</strong> procedure.<br />

In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>the</strong> kind <strong>of</strong> non-survey method employed would seem<br />

not to affect results significantly. This can be attributed to <strong>the</strong> insertion <strong>of</strong><br />

superior data and successive balancing which tend to level considerably <strong>the</strong><br />

initial differences characterizing different methods in order to make <strong>the</strong><br />

structure <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> regional table consistent with <strong>the</strong> system <strong>of</strong> superior data.<br />

This result contrasts with <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis put forward by some researchers<br />

(Johns and Leat, 1987; Lahr, 1993) about which <strong>the</strong> non-survey method employed<br />

within <strong>the</strong> hybrid procedure affects results considerably.<br />

(c) As for non-survey methods, WLQ, being closer to hybrid methods, would be<br />

<strong>the</strong> most accurate among non-survey-methods. That can be partially related<br />

to <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> some superior data associated to WLQ and to <strong>the</strong> attempt implicit<br />

to this LQ to take account <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> different pattern <strong>of</strong> consumption and<br />

production existing between nation and region. However, a relevant disadvantage<br />

is that it tends to underestimate sectoral <strong>impact</strong>s. Instead, traditional<br />

location quotients (in particular SLQ) are those which perform worse: <strong>the</strong>y<br />

are <strong>the</strong> less accurate and, at <strong>the</strong> same time, tend to overestimate <strong>impact</strong>s.<br />

However, this tendency cannot always be considered as a disadvantage. In<br />

fact, if <strong>the</strong> objective is to estimate <strong>the</strong> overall <strong>impact</strong> and <strong>the</strong> superior data<br />

are generally bigger than mechanical estimates, <strong>the</strong>n SLQ or o<strong>the</strong>r traditional<br />

LQs can produce estimates which are closer to “real” <strong>impact</strong>s when<br />

compared to o<strong>the</strong>r non-survey methods, even if <strong>the</strong> latter ones are considered<br />

more accurate. As far as <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r methods are concerned, SDP, FLQ<br />

and SCILQ are located between WLQ and traditional location quotients.<br />

This means that SDP performs better than location quotients (except for<br />

WLQ). Moreover, both SCILQ and, above all, FLQ may be considered improved<br />

versions <strong>of</strong> traditional LQs.<br />

All <strong>the</strong>se considerations have to be taken with caution. Firstly, results could be<br />

affected by <strong>the</strong> national matrix taken as an initial base, so that a different starting<br />

matrix could produce different results. This requires fur<strong>the</strong>r experiments to verify<br />

<strong>the</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> <strong>of</strong> results with respect to <strong>the</strong> choice <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> starting matrix. Secondly,<br />

results could be also influenced by regional data. Accordingly, <strong>the</strong> same<br />

151


Concluding Remarks<br />

experiment should be extended to fur<strong>the</strong>r regions to validate <strong>the</strong> results obtained.<br />

Thirdly, we limited <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> <strong>of</strong> some methods. Inclusion <strong>of</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r methods (in<br />

particular fur<strong>the</strong>r hybrid methods like RAS) could change some considerations for<br />

example those related to <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>tical <strong>cap</strong>ability <strong>of</strong> non-survey methods, but<br />

also <strong>of</strong> hybrid methods <strong>the</strong>mselves, to replicate survey-based models. Fourthly,<br />

we used sectoral <strong>impact</strong>s generated by a variation in <strong>the</strong> cereal sector to identify<br />

relationships between different methods <strong>of</strong> regionalization. Therefore, more definitive<br />

results could be obtained if <strong>the</strong> <strong>analysis</strong> was extended to all sectors and<br />

not only to <strong>the</strong> cereal sector. Finally, we focused on a full regional I-O table. This<br />

requested adjusting coefficients once <strong>the</strong>se latter ones were derived from nonsurvey<br />

model. However, non-adjustment, which means focusing only on <strong>the</strong><br />

transactions matrix, could stress differences among non-survey methods and alter<br />

some conclusions.<br />

Never<strong>the</strong>less, in spite <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> limitations described above, we feel that results <strong>of</strong><br />

this <strong>analysis</strong> contain some original elements and are encouraging for development<br />

<strong>of</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r research in this direction.<br />

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170


APPENDIX A – Regional I-O tables constructed by<br />

16 different regionalization methods


Tab. A.1 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by SLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 9 50,931 2,636 6,227 4,652 344 0 6 274 52 1 1 16 1<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 131,606 797,107 53 308,480 15,968 37,712 28,174 2,080 0 39 1,657 314 4 4 98 8<br />

3 Mining 78 473 8,774 609 53 388 703 139 252 7 200 710 8,788 2,034 3,633 102<br />

4 Food and tobacco 6,524 39,512 0 12,573 34 13,743 107 31 0 14 2 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 259 1,570 52 157 41,718 11,154 3,933 172 0 2 361 60 126 29 116 11<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 56 341 13 0 1,467 246,299 3,702 93 0 1 70 1 50 13 81 2<br />

7 Timber and furniture 62 379 70 631 738 3,215 180,267 165 0 5 130 389 710 137 371 18<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 33 198 91 1,566 208 1,065 893 7,278 0 19 164 239 189 123 481 6<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 46 277 19 41 13 46 48 7 8 1 3 15 8 2 5 0<br />

10 Chemicals 105 636 14 25 117 180 124 31 0 9 92 15 15 4 21 0<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 64 387 33 513 269 7,084 2,314 107 0 9 756 78 163 240 772 37<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 21 124 155 410 9 96 781 34 0 12 23 1,011 135 14 231 4<br />

13 Metal products 72 435 271 641 177 1,499 2,832 77 2 5 180 140 1,990 2,038 1,331 104<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 79 480 76 121 82 225 99 64 1 2 23 76 201 1,313 498 29<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 21 130 110 107 45 95 128 67 1 4 71 47 276 709 12,434 61<br />

16 Transportation equipment 3 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 3 17 158 137 344 490 68 148 0 5 72 204 67 87 1,638 5<br />

18 Energy and water 6 35 5 10 7 11 14 3 0 0 2 3 3 1 2 0<br />

19 Construction 154 935 709 712 454 2,131 793 343 5 13 168 439 410 215 732 14<br />

20 Trade 27,489 166,496 17,825 46,425 32,963 154,056 58,153 14,103 13 436 7,011 10,171 18,373 8,685 22,681 662<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 20 124 377 709 710 1,936 1,739 199 11 18 119 341 499 367 1,204 21<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,977 11,977 2,814 6,715 2,659 13,325 7,382 1,474 32 92 745 1,671 2,835 1,399 3,366 84<br />

23 Credit and insurance 1,676 10,150 199 1,213 968 3,678 3,715 306 7 8 129 212 613 261 604 10<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 2,956 17,901 6,758 18,328 18,115 48,087 31,293 7,640 45 459 3,325 4,540 10,661 5,622 21,727 502<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 180 1,092 314 2,924 784 1,127 602 803 1 30 194 155 399 230 976 50<br />

Total intermediate costs 173,491 1,050,791 38,899 453,978 120,538 553,869 332,516 35,708 378 1,196 15,771 20,883 46,516 23,529 73,018 1,735<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 43,850 265,590 26,971 60,285 65,258 147,183 84,110 27,523 961 1,497 17,712 15,931 33,664 20,492 50,545 1,533<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -76,594 -463,910 12,302 -179,975 -14,452 91,726 -10,636 2,345 5,816 1,050 -1,265 -2,216 -7,782 4,829 57,586 1,609<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 165,643 1,003,258 56,692 -53,120 125,067 482,494 233,470 58,785 7,274 3,447 28,870 31,079 64,048 41,401 148,988 4,219<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,050 95,591 400,858 245,605 1,036,363 565,986 94,493 7,652 4,643 44,641 51,962 110,564 64,930 222,006 5,954<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.1 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by SLQ (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 592 0 295 36 25,350 166 5 49 3,985 95,626 0 28,756 214,751 243,507 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 3,585 0 1,789 215 153,538 1,007 28 299 24,133 1,507,900 677,397 174,165 -305,412 546,150 2,054,050<br />

3 Mining 14,494 103 26,086 7,010 16 99 2 25 1,858 76,636 2 12,697 6,256 18,955 95,591<br />

4 Food and tobacco 24 0 0 94 59,102 174 0 0 6,852 138,786 217,638 32,968 11,465 262,071 400,858<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 258 0 1,749 2,725 1,772 813 24 885 4,688 72,634 99,131 71,089 2,757 172,977 245,605<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 250 0 0 8,957 1 57 31 9 2,330 263,824 305,066 431,019 36,453 772,538 1,036,363<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,222 0 36,764 13,212 3,542 537 88 5,276 6,190 254,118 181,159 120,654 10,055 311,868 565,986<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 263 0 1,895 21,707 2,916 1,305 303 10,031 16,782 67,755 14,561 10,037 2,138 26,736 94,493<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 14 1 189 796 153 424 3 244 572 2,935 1,452 564 2,704 4,720 7,652<br />

10 Chemicals 19 0 225 113 65 9 1 81 744 2,645 1,007 895 91 1,993 4,643<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 367 0 4,873 5,594 163 1,316 2 1,711 2,079 28,931 3,885 10,798 1,029 15,712 44,641<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 297 0 31,457 389 819 20 0 139 590 36,771 1,548 10,528 3,116 15,192 51,962<br />

13 Metal products 1,215 1 19,380 23,641 677 540 56 2,981 3,136 63,421 3,913 24,205 19,024 47,142 110,564<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 53 1 3,091 3,372 0 413 22 763 2,989 14,073 207 33,143 17,511 50,861 64,930<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 424 3 20,414 28,863 492 915 70 3,069 8,972 77,528 25,010 64,437 55,034 144,481 222,006<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 746 0 47 0 13 213 1,043 1,681 1,621 1,605 4,907 5,954<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1,757 0 600 907 180 420 22 2,598 9,517 19,444 97,253 67,806 -15,646 149,413 168,856<br />

18 Energy and water 2 0 11 91 43 8 2 47 79 385 162 1 0 163 549<br />

19 Construction 144 19 59,979 19,855 9,339 10,362 1,377 161,625 103,126 374,053 24,830 55,624 1,466,736 1,547,190 1,921,242<br />

20 Trade 12,916 10 132,642 613,819 194,255 59,462 2,748 141,999 153,348 1,896,741 3,261,853 326,677 280,650 3,869,180 5,765,921<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 372 1 7,790 44,440 0 7,195 1,021 31,601 25,889 126,703 923,963 220 0 924,183 1,050,886<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,030 3 35,940 110,701 13,391 51,228 1,703 26,776 43,460 343,779 156,056 101,233 15,196 272,485 616,260<br />

23 Credit and insurance 545 1 18,804 59,092 2,205 3,425 1,968 11,127 67,054 187,970 8,674 10,685 0 19,359 207,332<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 10,423 34 193,989 511,564 85,854 53,349 94,339 467,445 450,179 2,065,135 2,051,401 135,007 71,490 2,257,898 4,323,036<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 273 1 2,996 105,174 21,674 7,084 1,948 43,081 126,708 318,800 1,223,541 10,576 3,436,044 4,670,161 4,988,962<br />

Total intermediate costs 51,539 178 600,958 1,583,113 575,547 200,375 105,763 911,874 1,065,473 8,037,636 9,281,390 1,735,405 5,333,047 16,349,842 24,387,475<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 42,726 162 534,118 861,633 199,821 129,982 15,004 196,726 723,851 3,567,128<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 42,578 -33 -27,351 -9,658 -194,212 -55,758 -21,041 57,590 -136,737 -924,189<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 117,317 371 1,320,284 4,182,808 475,339 415,885 101,569 3,411,162 3,923,489 16,349,839<br />

INPUT 168,856 549 1,921,242 5,765,921 1,050,886 616,260 207,332 4,323,036 4,988,962 24,387,475<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.2 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by PLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 9 50,931 2,636 6,227 4,652 344 0 6 274 52 1 1 16 1<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 131,606 797,107 53 308,480 15,968 37,712 28,174 2,080 0 39 1,657 314 4 4 98 8<br />

3 Mining 78 473 8,774 609 53 388 703 139 252 7 200 710 8,788 2,034 3,633 102<br />

4 Food and tobacco 6,524 39,512 0 12,573 34 13,743 107 31 0 14 2 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 259 1,570 52 157 41,718 11,154 3,933 172 0 2 361 60 126 29 116 11<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 56 341 13 0 1,467 246,299 3,702 93 0 1 70 1 50 13 81 2<br />

7 Timber and furniture 62 379 70 631 738 3,215 180,267 165 0 5 130 389 710 137 371 18<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 33 198 91 1,566 208 1,065 893 7,278 0 19 164 239 189 123 481 6<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 46 277 19 41 13 46 48 7 8 1 3 15 8 2 5 0<br />

10 Chemicals 105 636 14 25 117 180 124 31 0 9 92 15 15 4 21 0<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 64 387 33 513 269 7,084 2,314 107 0 9 756 78 163 240 772 37<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 21 124 155 410 9 96 781 34 0 12 23 1,011 135 14 231 4<br />

13 Metal products 72 435 271 641 177 1,499 2,832 77 2 5 180 140 1,990 2,038 1,331 104<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 79 480 76 121 82 225 99 64 1 2 23 76 201 1,313 498 29<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 21 130 110 107 45 95 128 67 1 4 71 47 276 709 12,434 61<br />

16 Transportation equipment 3 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 3 17 158 137 344 490 68 148 0 5 72 204 67 87 1,638 5<br />

18 Energy and water 6 35 5 10 7 11 14 3 0 0 2 3 3 1 2 0<br />

19 Construction 154 935 709 712 454 2,131 793 343 5 13 168 439 410 215 732 14<br />

20 Trade 27,489 166,496 17,825 46,425 32,963 154,056 58,153 14,103 13 436 7,011 10,171 18,373 8,685 22,681 662<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 20 124 377 709 710 1,936 1,739 199 11 18 119 341 499 367 1,204 21<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,977 11,977 2,814 6,715 2,659 13,325 7,382 1,474 32 92 745 1,671 2,835 1,399 3,366 84<br />

23 Credit and insurance 1,676 10,150 199 1,213 968 3,678 3,715 306 7 8 129 212 613 261 604 10<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 2,956 17,901 6,758 18,328 18,115 48,087 31,293 7,640 45 459 3,325 4,540 10,661 5,622 21,727 502<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 180 1,092 314 2,924 784 1,127 602 803 1 30 194 155 399 230 976 50<br />

Total intermediate costs 173,491 1,050,791 38,899 453,978 120,538 553,869 332,516 35,708 378 1,196 15,771 20,883 46,516 23,529 73,018 1,735<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 46,685 282,763 26,872 64,613 65,368 137,932 86,059 27,516 959 1,501 17,708 15,995 33,564 20,358 49,883 1,520<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -79,429 -481,083 12,401 -184,303 -14,562 100,977 -12,584 2,351 5,819 1,046 -1,261 -2,280 -7,683 4,963 58,247 1,622<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 165,643 1,003,258 56,692 -53,120 125,067 482,494 233,471 58,784 7,275 3,447 28,870 31,079 64,047 41,401 148,987 4,219<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,050 95,591 400,858 245,605 1,036,363 565,987 94,492 7,653 4,643 44,641 51,962 110,563 64,930 222,005 5,954<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.2 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by PLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 592 0 295 36 25,350 166 5 49 3,985 95,626 0 28,756 214,751 243,507 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 3,585 0 1,789 215 153,538 1,007 28 299 24,133 1,507,900 677,397 174,165 -305,412 546,150 2,054,050<br />

3 Mining 14,494 103 26,086 7,010 16 99 2 25 1,858 76,636 2 12,697 6,256 18,955 95,591<br />

4 Food and tobacco 24 0 0 94 59,102 174 0 0 6,852 138,786 217,638 32,968 11,465 262,071 400,858<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 258 0 1,749 2,725 1,772 813 24 885 4,688 72,634 99,131 71,089 2,757 172,977 245,605<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 250 0 0 8,957 1 57 31 9 2,330 263,824 305,066 431,019 36,453 772,538 1,036,363<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,222 0 36,764 13,212 3,542 537 88 5,276 6,190 254,118 181,159 120,654 10,055 311,868 565,987<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 263 0 1,895 21,707 2,916 1,305 303 10,031 16,782 67,755 14,561 10,037 2,138 26,736 94,492<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 14 1 189 796 153 424 3 244 572 2,935 1,452 564 2,704 4,720 7,653<br />

10 Chemicals 19 0 225 113 65 9 1 81 744 2,645 1,007 895 91 1,993 4,643<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 367 0 4,873 5,594 163 1,316 2 1,711 2,079 28,931 3,885 10,798 1,029 15,712 44,641<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 297 0 31,457 389 819 20 0 139 590 36,771 1,548 10,528 3,116 15,192 51,962<br />

13 Metal products 1,215 1 19,380 23,641 677 540 56 2,981 3,136 63,421 3,913 24,205 19,024 47,142 110,563<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 53 1 3,091 3,372 0 413 22 763 2,989 14,073 207 33,143 17,511 50,861 64,930<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 424 3 20,414 28,863 492 915 70 3,069 8,972 77,528 25,010 64,437 55,034 144,481 222,005<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 746 0 47 0 13 213 1,043 1,681 1,621 1,605 4,907 5,954<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1,757 0 600 907 180 420 22 2,598 9,517 19,444 97,253 67,806 -15,646 149,413 168,856<br />

18 Energy and water 2 0 11 91 43 8 2 47 79 385 162 1 0 163 548<br />

19 Construction 144 19 59,979 19,855 9,339 10,362 1,377 161,625 103,126 374,053 24,830 55,624 1,466,736 1,547,190 1,921,242<br />

20 Trade 12,916 10 132,642 613,819 194,255 59,462 2,748 141,999 153,348 1,896,741 3,261,853 326,677 280,650 3,869,180 5,765,921<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 372 1 7,790 44,440 0 7,195 1,021 31,601 25,889 126,703 923,963 220 0 924,183 1,050,886<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,030 3 35,940 110,701 13,391 51,228 1,703 26,776 43,460 343,779 156,056 101,233 15,196 272,485 616,261<br />

23 Credit and insurance 545 1 18,804 59,092 2,205 3,425 1,968 11,127 67,054 187,970 8,674 10,685 0 19,359 207,332<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 10,423 34 193,989 511,564 85,854 53,349 94,339 467,445 450,179 2,065,135 2,051,401 135,007 71,490 2,257,898 4,323,036<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 273 1 2,996 105,174 21,674 7,084 1,948 43,081 126,708 318,800 1,223,541 10,576 3,436,044 4,670,161 4,988,961<br />

Total intermediate costs 51,539 178 600,958 1,583,113 575,547 200,375 105,763 911,874 1,065,473 8,037,636 9,281,390 1,735,405 5,333,047 16,349,842 24,387,473<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 42,588 161 535,696 857,374 221,184 129,395 14,978 195,916 722,268 3,598,856<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 42,716 -33 -28,929 -5,399 -215,575 -55,170 -21,015 58,400 -135,155 -955,919<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 117,317 370 1,320,284 4,182,808 475,339 415,886 101,569 3,411,162 3,923,488 16,349,837<br />

INPUT 168,856 548 1,921,242 5,765,921 1,050,886 616,261 207,332 4,323,036 4,988,961 24,387,473<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.3 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by CILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 9 50,931 2,636 6,227 4,652 344 0 6 274 52 1 1 16 1<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 131,606 797,107 53 308,480 15,968 37,712 28,174 2,080 0 39 1,657 314 4 4 98 8<br />

3 Mining 19 113 17,391 776 77 104 427 236 335 14 399 1,279 16,012 4,067 5,856 204<br />

4 Food and tobacco 2,885 17,475 0 29,544 86 8,537 114 71 0 32 6 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 59 359 72 191 57,885 2,847 2,297 239 0 3 501 83 175 40 160 15<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 50 305 13 0 1,467 246,338 3,703 93 0 1 70 1 50 13 81 2<br />

7 Timber and furniture 25 152 72 651 759 1,446 185,474 169 0 5 134 401 731 141 382 18<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 11 65 214 2,746 416 392 752 17,044 1 44 385 560 443 287 1,067 13<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 16 97 44 78 29 18 43 18 130 17 9 47 21 10 11 4<br />

10 Chemicals 38 231 43 47 258 73 115 80 2 152 296 51 40 19 54 6<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 24 147 105 1,036 618 2,994 2,238 288 1 29 2,540 262 470 807 1,967 124<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 8 45 471 795 20 39 727 87 0 38 74 3,348 374 46 565 14<br />

13 Metal products 26 155 739 1,222 386 599 2,589 196 6 14 491 381 5,415 5,547 3,204 283<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 22 133 178 178 139 70 70 127 2 5 58 191 425 4,204 932 92<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 7 42 239 180 87 34 106 147 1 7 154 104 603 1,545 27,096 134<br />

16 Transportation equipment 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 1 70<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1 7 172 149 373 220 70 160 0 5 78 221 73 95 1,776 5<br />

18 Energy and water 2 13 16 20 16 5 13 7 0 2 6 9 9 4 4 1<br />

19 Construction 66 400 743 746 476 1,021 832 360 5 14 176 461 429 226 767 14<br />

20 Trade 15,251 92,370 18,917 51,374 36,337 95,298 63,700 15,383 15 477 7,700 11,159 20,015 9,594 25,056 733<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 9 54 473 890 892 944 1,940 250 14 23 150 428 626 461 1,510 27<br />

22 Transport and communication 751 4,551 5,245 12,544 5,004 5,531 6,910 2,770 61 170 1,397 3,148 5,237 2,572 6,241 156<br />

23 Credit and insurance 690 4,178 642 2,661 2,422 1,692 3,910 896 23 27 414 682 1,920 839 1,676 33<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 1,363 8,253 7,049 19,171 18,966 24,812 32,744 7,998 46 475 3,443 4,751 11,153 5,861 22,450 519<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 180 1,092 345 3,210 861 541 661 882 1 33 213 170 438 253 1,072 55<br />

Total intermediate costs 153,110 927,351 53,245 487,620 146,178 437,494 342,261 49,925 643 1,632 20,626 28,104 64,666 36,640 102,042 2,531<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 62,461 378,313 5,527 20,453 19,549 237,390 80,887 5,660 12 34 9,888 4,240 6,688 1,116 9,360 32<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -74,824 -453,193 19,402 -173,786 5,621 117,897 -17,157 9,992 6,501 2,074 1,705 2,256 1,044 11,098 69,745 2,317<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 186,023 1,126,699 42,348 -86,763 99,431 598,872 223,726 44,569 7,010 3,008 24,016 23,860 45,898 28,294 119,962 3,426<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,050 95,593 400,857 245,609 1,036,366 565,987 94,494 7,653 4,640 44,642 51,964 110,564 64,934 222,004 5,957<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.3 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by CILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 592 0 295 36 25,350 166 5 49 3,985 95,626 0 28,756 214,751 243,507 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 3,585 0 1,789 215 153,538 1,007 28 299 24,133 1,507,900 677,397 174,165 -305,412 546,150 2,054,050<br />

3 Mining 9,359 137 15,271 3,361 7 116 2 11 1,060 76,633 2 12,697 6,256 18,955 95,593<br />

4 Food and tobacco 36 0 0 85 71,453 381 0 0 8,082 138,787 217,638 32,968 11,465 262,071 400,857<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 159 0 977 1,248 1,165 932 33 458 2,735 72,633 99,131 71,089 2,757 172,977 245,609<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 250 0 0 8,958 1 57 31 9 2,331 263,824 305,066 431,019 36,453 772,538 1,036,366<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,257 0 36,180 10,657 3,644 553 91 4,812 6,366 254,120 181,159 120,654 10,055 311,868 565,987<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 234 1 1,526 14,326 2,762 2,157 710 7,484 14,119 67,759 14,561 10,037 2,138 26,736 94,494<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 13 11 162 560 153 729 8 200 512 2,940 1,452 564 2,704 4,720 7,653<br />

10 Chemicals 18 1 199 82 68 15 3 67 690 2,648 1,007 895 91 1,993 4,640<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 375 1 4,507 4,242 177 2,501 5 1,467 2,009 28,934 3,885 10,798 1,029 15,712 44,642<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 292 0 27,986 284 858 36 0 115 550 36,772 1,548 10,528 3,116 15,192 51,964<br />

13 Metal products 1,172 3 16,948 16,946 697 969 151 2,416 2,866 63,421 3,913 24,205 19,024 47,142 110,564<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 40 3 2,100 1,878 0 575 47 481 2,122 14,072 207 33,143 17,511 50,861 64,934<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 372 7 16,177 18,748 460 1,491 152 2,246 7,385 77,524 25,010 64,437 55,034 144,481 222,004<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 635 0 97 0 13 213 1,045 1,681 1,621 1,605 4,907 5,957<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1,905 0 590 730 195 456 24 2,367 9,773 19,445 97,253 67,806 -15,646 149,413 168,856<br />

18 Energy and water 2 3 10 66 45 14 5 39 74 385 162 1 0 163 549<br />

19 Construction 151 20 62,878 17,062 9,790 10,862 1,443 157,002 108,110 374,054 24,830 55,624 1,466,736 1,547,190 1,921,243<br />

20 Trade 14,263 10 146,019 677,294 215,472 63,519 2,886 148,382 165,515 1,896,739 3,261,853 326,677 280,650 3,869,180 5,765,919<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 438 2 8,310 38,859 0 9,031 1,281 31,238 28,856 126,706 923,963 220 0 924,183 1,050,886<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,058 7 32,983 78,611 14,243 84,360 3,380 23,129 42,720 343,779 156,056 101,233 15,196 272,485 616,257<br />

23 Credit and insurance 606 3 18,934 48,770 2,612 7,084 6,332 10,382 70,545 187,973 8,674 10,685 0 19,359 207,327<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 10,909 34 203,105 476,332 90,158 55,923 98,767 488,407 472,446 2,065,135 2,051,401 135,007 71,490 2,257,898 4,323,045<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 300 1 3,148 90,582 23,795 7,777 2,138 41,946 139,108 318,802 1,223,541 10,576 3,436,044 4,670,161 4,988,965<br />

Total intermediate costs 48,386 244 600,094 1,510,567 616,643 250,808 117,522 923,019 1,116,305 8,037,656 9,281,390 1,735,405 5,333,047 16,349,842 24,387,494<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 41,307 0 541,688 1,001,721 180,879 65,036 1,283 220,478 717,211 3,611,213<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 47,150 63 -34,056 -77,202 -216,366 -41,248 -19,084 22,702 -180,926 -968,275<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 120,470 305 1,321,149 4,255,352 434,243 365,449 89,805 3,400,026 3,872,660 16,349,838<br />

INPUT 168,856 549 1,921,243 5,765,919 1,050,886 616,257 207,327 4,323,045 4,988,965 24,387,494<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.4 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by RLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 9 50,931 2,636 6,227 4,652 344 0 6 274 52 1 1 16 1<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 131,606 797,107 53 308,480 15,968 37,712 28,174 2,080 0 39 1,657 314 4 4 98 8<br />

3 Mining 29 175 15,405 734 71 153 476 214 366 16 373 1,217 14,355 4,545 5,339 228<br />

4 Food and tobacco 3,913 23,700 0 24,436 78 10,266 112 69 0 31 6 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 94 567 82 185 54,735 4,300 2,610 258 0 4 572 95 200 45 165 17<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 56 341 13 0 1,467 246,299 3,702 93 0 1 70 1 50 13 81 2<br />

7 Timber and furniture 35 210 72 648 756 1,907 184,022 169 0 5 134 399 729 141 380 18<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 16 95 209 2,439 361 544 785 14,480 1 46 397 588 399 301 913 13<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 23 140 38 68 25 25 45 15 96 14 7 38 17 8 10 3<br />

10 Chemicals 55 331 35 41 221 100 119 67 2 112 241 41 33 15 45 5<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 34 206 84 888 519 4,015 2,257 236 1 29 2,026 214 382 813 1,626 125<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 11 64 383 690 17 53 742 73 0 39 60 2,696 308 46 473 14<br />

13 Metal products 36 218 650 1,046 323 802 2,606 161 6 14 456 362 4,393 5,609 2,643 286<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 33 203 155 165 127 101 77 113 2 6 50 165 374 3,539 835 101<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 10 62 246 160 76 48 110 132 1 7 162 109 575 1,625 23,266 140<br />

16 Transportation equipment 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 1 49<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 2 9 171 148 371 289 69 159 0 5 78 220 72 94 1,765 5<br />

18 Energy and water 3 18 13 18 13 6 14 6 0 2 5 8 8 3 4 0<br />

19 Construction 90 546 730 734 468 1,328 818 354 5 14 173 453 422 222 754 14<br />

20 Trade 20,253 122,670 18,463 49,293 34,920 120,872 61,372 14,846 15 459 7,411 10,745 19,327 9,212 24,058 704<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 12 72 459 864 865 1,212 1,873 243 13 22 145 415 607 447 1,465 25<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,034 6,260 5,244 11,247 4,995 7,315 6,909 2,765 60 169 1,394 3,137 5,252 2,586 6,254 154<br />

23 Credit and insurance 948 5,744 539 2,232 1,988 2,220 3,858 719 22 26 367 618 1,526 831 1,355 32<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 1,855 11,232 6,922 18,801 18,589 32,200 32,109 7,840 46 468 3,392 4,658 10,936 5,756 22,136 513<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 180 1,092 337 3,141 842 701 644 863 1 32 209 166 428 247 1,048 54<br />

Total intermediate costs 160,329 971,072 50,312 477,389 140,431 478,695 338,155 46,299 637 1,566 19,660 26,712 60,400 36,106 94,730 2,511<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 56,847 344,308 10,842 31,483 32,134 208,795 81,786 11,615 273 370 11,566 6,676 13,716 2,788 20,469 189<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -76,429 -462,909 17,018 -174,583 -1,218 105,290 -13,950 7,663 6,245 1,802 995 1,212 -1,719 9,957 65,950 2,174<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 178,805 1,082,977 45,279 -76,530 105,177 557,670 227,832 48,195 7,015 3,072 24,984 25,252 50,163 28,825 127,276 3,440<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,050 95,591 400,859 245,608 1,036,365 565,987 94,494 7,652 4,638 44,644 51,964 110,563 64,931 222,006 5,951<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.4 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by RLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 592 0 295 36 25,350 166 5 49 3,985 95,626 0 28,756 214,751 243,507 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 3,585 0 1,789 215 153,538 1,007 28 299 24,133 1,507,900 677,397 174,165 -305,412 546,150 2,054,050<br />

3 Mining 10,261 150 17,201 4,018 8 110 2 12 1,175 76,633 2 12,697 6,256 18,955 95,591<br />

4 Food and tobacco 32 0 0 89 68,002 315 0 0 7,739 138,788 217,638 32,968 11,465 262,071 400,859<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 178 0 1,124 1,524 1,282 910 38 538 3,110 72,633 99,131 71,089 2,757 172,977 245,608<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 250 0 0 8,957 1 57 31 9 2,330 263,824 305,066 431,019 36,453 772,538 1,036,365<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,253 0 36,346 11,363 3,632 550 90 4,941 6,317 254,117 181,159 120,654 10,055 311,868 565,987<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 241 1 1,614 16,082 2,796 1,936 654 8,092 14,752 67,755 14,561 10,037 2,138 26,736 94,494<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 13 12 170 621 153 650 6 212 528 2,937 1,452 564 2,704 4,720 7,652<br />

10 Chemicals 18 1 208 91 68 14 3 72 711 2,649 1,007 895 91 1,993 4,638<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 373 1 4,603 4,597 173 2,166 4 1,531 2,028 28,931 3,885 10,798 1,029 15,712 44,644<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 293 0 28,935 311 849 32 0 121 560 36,770 1,548 10,528 3,116 15,192 51,964<br />

13 Metal products 1,163 3 17,272 18,329 679 837 126 2,517 2,885 63,422 3,913 24,205 19,024 47,142 110,563<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 43 3 2,325 2,207 0 540 41 544 2,321 14,070 207 33,143 17,511 50,861 64,931<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 383 7 17,156 21,100 467 1,341 149 2,436 7,750 77,518 25,010 64,437 55,034 144,481 222,006<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 670 0 83 0 13 213 1,047 1,681 1,621 1,605 4,907 5,951<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1,857 0 591 777 194 453 24 2,423 9,669 19,445 97,253 67,806 -15,646 149,413 168,855<br />

18 Energy and water 2 2 10 73 45 12 4 41 77 387 162 1 0 163 550<br />

19 Construction 148 20 61,809 17,940 9,624 10,678 1,419 159,020 106,272 374,055 24,830 55,624 1,466,736 1,547,190 1,921,242<br />

20 Trade 13,697 10 140,401 650,629 206,553 61,828 2,830 145,749 160,424 1,896,741 3,261,853 326,677 280,650 3,869,180 5,765,923<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 417 2 8,125 40,324 0 8,761 1,243 31,224 27,870 126,705 923,963 220 0 924,183 1,050,886<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,011 7 33,120 85,618 13,789 75,183 3,343 23,706 42,221 343,773 156,056 101,233 15,196 272,485 616,260<br />

23 Credit and insurance 589 3 18,914 51,707 2,497 6,003 5,018 10,602 69,612 187,970 8,674 10,685 0 19,359 207,332<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 10,696 34 199,068 497,143 88,142 54,752 96,808 478,917 462,129 2,065,142 2,051,401 135,007 71,490 2,257,898 4,323,034<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 293 1 3,103 94,755 23,269 7,605 2,091 42,264 135,437 318,803 1,223,541 10,576 3,436,044 4,670,161 4988957<br />

Total intermediate costs 48,388 257 594,179 1,529,176 601,111 235,989 113,957 915,332 1,094,248 8,037,641 9,281,390 1,735,405 5,333,047 16,349,842 24,387,475<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 41,699 17 539,583 954,379 186,113 83,646 4,561 212,922 719,062 3,575,839<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 46,755 34 -26,037 -48,465 -206,068 -45,036 -18,792 37,934 -160,728 -932,905<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 120,467 293 1,327,063 4,236,747 449,775 380,271 93,375 3,407,702 3,894,709 16,349,834<br />

INPUT 168,855 550 1,921,242 5,765,923 1,050,886 616,260 207,332 4,323,034 4,988,957 24,387,475<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.5 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by FLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 17 96,705 5,006 3,651 6,241 652 0 12 520 98 1 1 31 3<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 69,041 418,163 102 585,718 30,318 22,114 37,800 3,950 0 73 3,147 597 8 8 187 15<br />

3 Mining 18 110 16,746 755 75 101 413 229 602 51 412 1,211 15,551 5,448 5,687 718<br />

4 Food and tobacco 2,882 17,457 0 29,513 98 8,529 114 94 0 116 11 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 59 356 98 189 57,493 2,827 2,281 277 1 12 728 124 218 75 176 54<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 47 283 44 0 4,934 228,846 7,870 313 0 3 237 3 169 43 271 5<br />

7 Timber and furniture 24 148 229 1,316 1,753 1,405 180,283 458 0 18 452 1,386 2,115 497 978 64<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 11 64 248 2,717 411 388 744 16,865 3 158 475 710 470 460 1,055 45<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 16 97 44 77 29 18 43 17 129 18 9 47 21 10 11 4<br />

10 Chemicals 38 231 43 47 258 73 115 80 2 151 296 51 40 19 54 6<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 24 143 102 1,013 605 2,928 2,188 281 4 102 2,484 263 459 1,024 1,923 437<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 7 45 469 792 20 39 724 87 1 138 74 3,335 373 58 563 51<br />

13 Metal products 24 147 764 1,152 363 565 2,440 185 21 47 540 429 5,103 7,912 3,020 965<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 22 131 175 174 137 69 69 125 9 18 57 188 418 4,134 916 300<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 7 41 289 176 86 34 104 151 6 26 199 137 667 2,584 26,501 471<br />

16 Transportation equipment 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 1 70<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1 5 415 229 657 172 54 330 0 15 201 583 160 267 3,462 14<br />

18 Energy and water 2 13 16 20 16 5 13 7 0 2 6 9 9 4 4 1<br />

19 Construction 61 371 2,350 1,507 1,095 945 805 969 18 47 590 1,544 1,237 757 1,956 48<br />

20 Trade 11,062 66,999 47,739 98,634 79,296 68,983 58,196 38,960 38 1,236 20,008 28,970 51,650 25,044 60,708 1,920<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 8 47 1,205 1,446 1,653 829 1,703 543 43 72 406 1,188 1,453 1,464 3,103 83<br />

22 Transport and communication 689 4,172 8,069 12,285 5,619 5,116 6,426 3,640 203 568 2,282 5,266 7,365 5,497 7,768 522<br />

23 Credit and insurance 687 4,159 683 2,650 2,411 1,685 3,893 892 82 96 468 791 1,911 1,231 1,669 116<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 1,018 6,167 19,016 33,848 38,393 18,579 27,682 18,943 124 1,261 9,181 12,971 28,164 15,853 48,961 1,375<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 180 1,092 1,040 6,179 1,889 500 611 2,267 5 110 684 559 1,204 844 2,607 182<br />

Total intermediate costs 85,928 520,449 99,903 877,142 232,615 368,401 340,812 90,315 1,291 4,350 43,468 60,461 118,768 73,238 171,612 7,469<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 97,388 589,857 27,952 85,513 81,632 462,644 254,483 31,157 668 889 17,815 15,930 36,697 18,101 60,293 445<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -42,570 -257,834 -49,684 -628,374 -142,897 -38,266 -189,302 -55,898 5,196 -1,498 -29,060 -41,790 -83,066 -42,487 -50,757 -3,036<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 253,205 1,533,601 -4,313 -476,291 12,996 667,963 225,177 4,176 6,361 291 1,178 -8,496 -8,203 -8,306 50,393 -1,514<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,050 95,590 400,851 245,611 1,036,364 565,989 94,491 7,652 4,641 44,646 51,965 110,565 64,932 222,005 5,955<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.5 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by FLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 838 0 379 37 38,274 316 9 59 5,343 158,192 0 28,756 152,185 180,941 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 5,075 0 2,296 227 231,819 1,911 53 355 32,359 1,445,337 677,397 174,165 -242,849 608,713 2,054,050<br />

3 Mining 9,090 246 14,832 3,263 4 109 1 9 957 76,638 2 12,697 6,256 18,955 95,590<br />

4 Food and tobacco 36 0 0 85 71,397 381 0 0 8,072 138,785 217,638 32,968 11,465 262,071 400,851<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 158 0 970 1,239 1,157 926 42 455 2,717 72,632 99,131 71,089 2,757 172,977 245,611<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 561 0 0 14,928 1 193 105 17 4,950 263,823 305,066 431,019 36,453 772,538 1,036,364<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,289 0 35,168 10,359 3,986 1,055 270 4,677 6,187 254,117 181,159 120,654 10,055 311,868 565,989<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 231 2 1,510 14,175 2,733 2,134 771 7,405 13,970 67,755 14,561 10,037 2,138 26,736 94,491<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 13 23 162 557 152 724 8 199 509 2,937 1,452 564 2,704 4,720 7,652<br />

10 Chemicals 18 1 199 82 68 15 3 67 690 2,647 1,007 895 91 1,993 4,641<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 367 2 4,408 4,148 173 2,446 5 1,435 1,965 28,929 3,885 10,798 1,029 15,712 44,646<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 290 1 27,871 282 854 36 0 115 548 36,773 1,548 10,528 3,116 15,192 51,965<br />

13 Metal products 1,104 11 15,970 15,969 656 913 146 2,277 2,700 63,423 3,913 24,205 19,024 47,142 110,565<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 39 9 2,065 1,847 0 566 46 473 2,087 14,074 207 33,143 17,511 50,861 64,932<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 364 24 15,821 18,335 450 1,457 173 2,198 7,226 77,527 25,010 64,437 55,034 144,481 222,005<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 635 0 97 0 13 213 1,045 1,681 1,621 1,605 4,907 5,955<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1,488 1 461 571 162 663 54 1,847 7,632 19,444 97,253 67,806 -15,646 149,413 168,858<br />

18 Energy and water 2 3 10 66 45 14 5 39 74 385 162 1 0 163 546<br />

19 Construction 154 68 58,213 15,796 10,665 20,658 4,269 145,354 104,579 374,056 24,830 55,624 1,466,736 1,547,190 1,921,244<br />

20 Trade 13,840 27 128,122 488,047 223,822 111,619 7,218 115,347 149,262 1,896,747 3,261,853 326,677 280,650 3,869,180 5,765,923<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 385 5 7,296 34,116 0 13,843 3,054 27,425 25,335 126,705 923,963 220 0 924,183 1,050,885<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,900 22 30,417 74,884 13,368 81,096 4,996 21,618 39,985 343,773 156,056 101,233 15,196 272,485 616,257<br />

23 Credit and insurance 603 12 18,850 48,554 2,600 7,052 6,304 10,336 70,232 187,967 8,674 10,685 0 19,359 207,328<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 9,755 89 165,399 382,347 89,476 95,084 256,807 371,333 413,310 2,065,136 2,051,401 135,007 71,490 2,257,898 4,323,039<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 292 2 2,906 83,621 24,735 14,116 6,036 38,722 128,417 318,800 1,223,541 10,576 3,436,044 4,670,161 4,988,961<br />

Total intermediate costs 47,892 548 533,325 1,214,170 716,597 357,424 290,375 751,775 1,029,319 8,037,647 9,281,390 1,735,405 5,333,044 16,349,839 24,387,481<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 64,533 78 872,226 1,697,861 399,616 185,483 18,655 599,127 1,285,945 6,904,988<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 24,420 -322 -297,824 -476,941 -535,058 -268,311 -209,308 -184,709 -662,678 -4,262,054<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 120,966 -2 1,387,919 4,551,753 334,288 258,833 -83,047 3,571,264 3,959,642 16,349,834<br />

INPUT 168,858 546 1,921,244 5,765,923 1,050,885 616,257 207,328 4,323,039 4,988,961 24,387,481<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.6 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by SDP (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 2 13,050 676 1,595 1,192 88 0 2 70 13 0 0 4 0<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 33,722 204,248 14 79,043 4,091 9,664 7,219 533 0 9 425 81 1 1 26 3<br />

3 Mining 95 572 10,361 736 64 469 836 168 17 9 242 620 10,638 2,462 4,398 124<br />

4 Food and tobacco 11,875 71,922 0 23,434 67 35,655 194 58 0 26 5 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 389 2,353 78 235 62,563 16,727 5,899 258 0 3 542 90 190 43 173 16<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 48 294 11 0 1,263 212,057 3,187 80 0 1 61 1 43 11 69 2<br />

7 Timber and furniture 57 345 64 577 672 2,930 164,304 150 0 4 119 355 648 125 339 16<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 43 259 119 2,046 272 1,392 1,167 9,511 0 25 215 313 247 160 629 7<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 71 429 25 62 21 72 75 11 13 2 4 23 12 3 7 0<br />

10 Chemicals 184 1,111 25 43 205 314 217 54 0 15 160 27 25 8 39 1<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 96 580 50 769 403 10,611 3,466 160 1 13 1,133 117 244 360 1,157 55<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 28 173 216 570 13 133 1,087 47 0 16 32 1,406 188 19 321 6<br />

13 Metal products 114 688 429 1,015 281 2,374 4,484 122 3 8 286 222 3,150 3,226 2,107 164<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 294 1,781 284 446 306 834 366 240 3 6 87 281 746 4,878 1,849 107<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 44 263 224 222 99 211 272 146 1 7 145 99 567 1,489 26,152 128<br />

16 Transportation equipment 11 68 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 3 25<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1 9 80 69 174 248 34 75 0 2 37 103 34 44 827 2<br />

18 Energy and water 8 51 7 13 10 16 21 4 0 0 3 4 5 1 3 0<br />

19 Construction 120 728 552 555 354 1,660 618 268 4 10 131 342 319 168 570 10<br />

20 Trade 12,624 76,461 7,414 21,094 14,858 70,386 25,868 6,218 6 194 3,136 4,540 8,079 3,932 10,268 302<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 17 105 319 600 601 1,639 1,472 169 9 15 101 289 422 311 1,018 18<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,790 16,895 3,937 9,247 3,707 18,287 10,017 2,060 45 131 1,050 2,338 3,954 1,910 4,692 117<br />

23 Credit and insurance 1,837 11,129 219 1,330 1,061 4,033 4,073 336 8 9 141 232 672 286 663 11<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 1,332 8,066 2,961 8,444 8,550 22,052 14,384 3,594 16 173 1,290 2,125 4,933 2,466 8,135 184<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 466 2,823 255 2,373 636 915 489 652 1 24 158 126 324 187 792 40<br />

Total intermediate costs 66,265 401,354 27,646 165,973 100,947 414,274 250,941 25,002 127 704 9,574 13,749 35,444 22,095 64,241 1,338<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 44,457 269,266 21,816 56,157 29,070 134,872 79,820 26,947 977 1,500 17,449 15,839 27,668 14,414 33,879 1,289<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 30,025 181,852 28,712 112,150 41,331 243,633 75,231 13,628 6,053 1,535 5,199 5,013 9,286 12,340 83,029 2,250<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 272,868 1,652,697 67,947 234,877 144,662 622,090 315,047 69,492 7,527 3,935 35,071 38,216 75,120 42,834 157,765 4,616<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,051 95,593 400,850 245,609 1,036,364 565,988 94,494 7,654 4,639 44,645 51,965 110,564 64,929 222,006 5,954<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.6 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by SDP (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 152 0 76 9 6,496 43 1 13 1,021 24,503 0 197,763 116,867 314,630 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 918 0 458 55 39,342 257 7 76 6,184 386,377 677,397 1,197,805 -207,529 1,667,673 2,054,051<br />

3 Mining 17,546 7 31,579 8,468 1 109 0 15 1,823 91,359 2 1,159 3,069 4,230 95,593<br />

4 Food and tobacco 62 0 0 170 104,934 344 0 0 13,914 262,660 131,690 95 6,407 138,192 400,850<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 387 0 2,623 4,086 2,658 1,219 36 1,328 7,029 108,925 99,131 34,798 2,757 136,686 245,609<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 215 0 0 7,712 1 49 27 8 2,007 227,147 305,066 467,698 36,453 809,217 1,036,364<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,114 0 33,508 12,042 3,228 490 80 4,808 5,642 231,617 181,159 143,157 10,055 334,371 565,988<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 344 0 2,477 28,364 3,810 1,704 396 13,108 21,930 88,538 5,194 0 763 5,957 94,494<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 21 1 293 1,231 234 619 4 337 883 4,453 21 413 2,765 3,199 7,654<br />

10 Chemicals 32 0 393 197 113 15 2 143 1,301 4,624 15 0 1 16 4,639<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 550 0 7,299 8,378 244 1,970 3 2,563 3,116 43,338 1,032 0 273 1,305 44,645<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 413 0 43,764 542 1,140 28 0 193 822 51,157 267 0 538 805 51,965<br />

13 Metal products 1,924 2 30,683 37,429 1,072 854 88 4,721 4,965 100,411 1,732 0 8,421 10,153 110,564<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 196 3 11,479 12,526 0 1,531 81 2,835 11,102 52,261 148 0 12,524 12,672 64,929<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 862 6 42,507 60,117 998 1,917 141 6,558 19,546 162,721 18,360 0 40,923 59,283 222,006<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 4,416 1 233 0 78 933 5,779 91 0 82 173 5,954<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 888 0 303 458 91 213 11 1,313 4,808 9,824 97,253 77,426 -15,646 159,033 168,856<br />

18 Energy and water 3 0 16 128 61 12 2 67 113 548 0 0 0 0 548<br />

19 Construction 112 15 46,728 15,469 7,276 8,072 1,073 125,916 80,342 291,412 24,830 138,264 1,466,736 1,629,830 1,921,243<br />

20 Trade 5,843 5 59,617 277,218 88,687 25,082 1,118 57,099 66,130 846,179 3,261,853 1,377,240 280,650 4,919,743 5,765,920<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 315 1 6,595 37,624 0 6,092 864 26,755 21,918 107,269 923,963 19,653 0 943,616 1,050,887<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,828 5 50,048 141,235 17,919 60,314 2,367 38,588 61,529 456,010 108,072 40,673 11,508 160,253 616,258<br />

23 Credit and insurance 598 1 20,617 64,790 2,417 3,755 2,158 12,200 73,519 206,095 1,233 0 0 1,233 207,329<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 4,834 11 91,428 295,393 45,568 26,552 44,365 220,120 233,210 1,050,186 2,051,401 1,149,957 71,490 3,272,848 4,323,034<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 222 0 2,432 85,370 17,593 5,749 1,581 34,969 102,849 261,026 1,221,524 70,365 3,436,044 4,727,933 4,988,960<br />

Total intermediate costs 40,379 57 484,923 1,103,427 343,884 147,223 54,405 553,811 746,636 5,074,419 9,111,434 4,916,466 5,285,151 19,313,051 24,387,473<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 34,984 156 521,558 862,559 193,035 118,707 17,238 192,763 781,367 3,497,787<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 61,480 93 101,245 469,101 44,238 8,667 28,080 419,614 124,582 2,108,367<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 128,477 491 1,436,320 4,662,493 707,003 469,035 152,924 3,769,223 4,242,324 19,313,054<br />

INPUT 168,856 548 1,921,243 5,765,920 1,050,887 616,258 207,329 4,323,034 4,988,960 24,387,473<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.7 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by SCILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 13 69,247 3,655 5,307 5,400 486 0 10 397 76 1 1 23 2<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 106,253 643,550 77 419,410 22,141 32,140 32,705 2,945 0 61 2,406 457 6 6 138 13<br />

3 Mining 27 162 13,938 761 72 147 525 205 414 19 330 1,051 13,448 3,784 5,204 269<br />

4 Food and tobacco 3,734 22,618 0 22,660 68 9,959 116 62 0 44 6 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 93 566 77 187 53,236 4,423 2,973 237 0 5 548 92 179 48 155 24<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 52 314 23 0 2,421 240,551 5,032 157 0 2 122 2 86 23 135 3<br />

7 Timber and furniture 35 215 108 861 1,047 1,972 181,821 244 0 9 204 613 1,073 227 543 33<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 14 86 173 2,361 337 509 831 12,812 1 58 321 473 345 267 824 16<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 17 105 41 77 28 20 45 17 72 10 8 43 20 9 11 2<br />

10 Chemicals 42 252 41 48 255 79 122 77 1 85 278 47 39 17 52 4<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 30 182 75 896 509 3,685 2,408 221 1 34 1,760 184 351 631 1,550 139<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 9 54 329 671 16 46 759 66 0 43 50 2,240 273 35 434 15<br />

13 Metal products 32 195 547 1,018 304 740 2,744 144 7 17 374 294 3,833 4,729 2,408 334<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 29 177 149 176 131 92 83 114 3 6 47 154 369 3,033 848 103<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 9 57 202 156 71 45 118 116 1 10 135 91 491 1,496 20,803 174<br />

16 Transportation equipment 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 3 1 39<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 2 9 233 177 464 279 64 208 0 9 108 306 96 138 2,274 8<br />

18 Energy and water 2 14 15 20 15 5 14 7 0 1 6 9 9 4 4 0<br />

19 Construction 90 542 1,096 976 647 1,336 811 511 10 25 263 693 620 355 1,073 26<br />

20 Trade 17,645 106,873 26,458 64,733 47,379 106,102 61,917 20,811 26 793 10,894 15,860 27,473 14,171 33,481 1,208<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 11 70 611 1,004 1,052 1,181 1,785 310 22 37 197 565 789 641 1,838 42<br />

22 Transport and communication 973 5,890 5,129 10,115 4,272 7,092 7,221 2,533 84 240 1,392 3,163 4,957 2,822 5,607 216<br />

23 Credit and insurance 822 4,981 446 2,127 1,832 1,991 3,961 631 26 31 296 494 1,307 672 1,210 36<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 1,699 10,291 9,965 24,188 24,863 29,858 31,194 10,917 80 814 4,932 6,847 15,458 8,810 30,201 882<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 180 1,092 493 4,059 1,133 704 618 1,214 3 58 310 248 613 387 1,453 95<br />

Total intermediate costs 131,803 798,300 60,239 625,928 165,948 448,263 343,267 55,045 751 2,421 25,385 34,003 71,838 42,309 110,270 3,683<br />

Value Added 198,386 1,201,579 17,419 66,570 74,261 243,585 159,996 28,917 497 900 12,423 17,364 38,166 16,080 40,857 1,077<br />

Imports 54,712 331,375 3,630 61,701 470 196,296 56,828 2,206 136 788 4,174 2,590 4,471 8,594 5,625 1,457<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -45,768 -277,204 14,303 -353,341 4,931 148,220 5,895 8,328 6,269 531 2,663 -1,993 -3,911 -2,052 65,249 -263<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 207,330 1,255,750 35,352 -225,070 79,662 588,101 222,719 39,451 6,902 2,219 19,260 17,961 38,726 22,622 111,731 2,271<br />

INPUT 339,133 2,054,050 95,591 400,858 245,610 1,036,364 565,986 94,496 7,653 4,640 44,645 51,964 110,564 64,931 222,001 5,954<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.7 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by SCILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 697 0 339 38 30,378 224 7 55 4,625 120,980 0 28,756 189,398 218,153 339,133<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 4,224 0 2,050 232 183,992 1,356 40 335 28,011 1,482,549 677,397 174,165 -280,062 571,501 2,054,050<br />

3 Mining 11,356 184 18,962 4,351 8 115 2 13 1,288 76,635 2 12,697 6,256 18,955 95,591<br />

4 Food and tobacco 33 0 0 95 70,875 296 0 0 8,220 138,786 217,638 32,968 11,465 262,071 400,858<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 203 0 1,281 1,725 1,454 938 34 613 3,542 72,633 99,131 71,089 2,757 172,977 245,610<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 345 0 0 11,233 1 91 53 12 3,167 263,825 305,066 431,019 36,453 772,538 1,036,364<br />

7 Timber and furniture 1,265 0 36,257 11,712 3,783 718 134 5,001 6,242 254,117 181,159 120,654 10,055 311,868 565,986<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 255 1 1,707 16,802 2,956 1,900 558 8,532 15,615 67,754 14,561 10,037 2,138 26,736 94,496<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 14 8 170 591 158 722 7 209 534 2,938 1,452 564 2,704 4,720 7,653<br />

10 Chemicals 19 0 211 87 71 15 3 72 729 2,646 1,007 895 91 1,993 4,640<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 398 1 4,897 4,795 186 2,214 4 1,620 2,163 28,934 3,885 10,798 1,029 15,712 44,645<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 301 0 29,518 311 872 32 0 123 574 36,771 1,548 10,528 3,116 15,192 51,964<br />

13 Metal products 1,225 4 18,160 18,991 716 826 109 2,636 3,037 63,424 3,913 24,205 19,024 47,142 110,564<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 46 3 2,499 2,308 0 578 41 579 2,506 14,074 207 33,143 17,511 50,861 64,931<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 408 9 18,216 22,176 494 1,310 126 2,581 8,233 77,528 25,010 64,437 55,034 144,481 222,001<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 667 0 94 0 13 217 1,046 1,681 1,621 1,605 4,907 5,954<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1,709 0 555 752 181 533 32 2,307 9,003 19,447 97,253 67,806 -15,646 149,413 168,857<br />

18 Energy and water 2 2 10 67 46 14 5 40 77 388 162 1 0 163 546<br />

19 Construction 151 37 59,969 17,884 10,095 13,935 2,097 155,440 105,369 374,051 24,830 55,624 1,466,736 1,547,190 1,921,245<br />

20 Trade 14,189 17 139,150 587,238 220,220 78,736 3,984 136,542 160,844 1,896,744 3,261,853 326,677 280,650 3,869,180 5,765,921<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 393 3 7,807 39,805 0 9,980 1,627 30,371 26,563 126,704 923,963 220 0 924,183 1,050,887<br />

22 Transport and communication 2,089 9 34,613 89,826 14,209 70,071 3,124 24,579 43,546 343,772 156,056 101,233 15,196 272,485 616,259<br />

23 Credit and insurance 606 4 19,389 52,187 2,567 5,797 4,257 10,821 71,478 187,969 8,674 10,685 0 19,359 207,331<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 10,659 61 189,722 460,920 91,448 69,599 137,768 440,692 453,267 2,065,135 2,051,401 135,007 71,490 2,257,898 4,323,037<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 288 1 3,009 94,943 23,572 9,642 3,014 41,580 130,092 318,801 1,223,541 10,576 3,436,044 4,670,161 4,988,967<br />

Total intermediate costs 50,875 344 588,491 1,439,736 658,282 269,736 157,026 864,766 1,088,942 8,037,651 9,281,390 1,735,405 5,333,044 16,349,839 24,387,490<br />

Value Added 32,013 242 813,517 3,330,833 469,730 341,661 107,606 3,156,846 3,336,375 13,706,900<br />

Imports 29,916 93 414,064 802,231 88,124 32,813 26,768 170,613 548,643 2,848,318<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 56,053 -133 105,173 193,121 -165,249 -27,951 -84,069 130,812 15,007 -205,379<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 117,982 202 1,332,754 4,326,185 392,605 346,523 50,305 3,458,271 3,900,025 16,349,839<br />

INPUT 168,857 546 1,921,245 5,765,921 1,050,887 616,259 207,331 4,323,037 4,988,967 24,387,490<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.8 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by West’s SLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 5 83,541 5,539 5,972 3,089 778 0 273 2,192 130 3 4 34 88<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 6,635 40,187 29 505,985 33,545 36,171 18,707 4,713 0 1,652 13,275 786 20 26 207 534<br />

3 Mining 14 88 17,198 3,671 410 1,367 1,684 1,155 1,511 1,119 5,873 4,688 150,287 46,122 28,144 25,342<br />

4 Food and tobacco 10,688 64,737 0 644,658 2,096 236,009 1,931 2,164 52 17,439 672 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 181 1,095 393 3,554 1,212,954 148,061 36,147 5,391 64 1,380 40,054 2,074 8,142 2,451 3,368 10,001<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 23 136 57 0 24,490 1,877,044 19,532 1,678 32 289 4,482 20 1,862 625 1,351 893<br />

7 Timber and furniture 26 161 322 8,718 13,033 25,934 1,006,819 3,138 2 1,773 8,773 8,194 27,810 7,126 6,580 10,018<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 20 121 602 30,968 5,266 12,324 7,151 198,867 166 9,742 15,870 7,221 10,627 9,130 12,230 4,314<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 801 4,853 2,753 23,311 9,809 15,460 11,121 5,528 110,000 16,937 7,916 12,652 12,481 5,165 3,457 7,322<br />

10 Chemicals 2,016 12,209 2,948 15,386 93,718 65,558 31,425 26,709 1,998 144,918 280,018 14,585 25,752 10,414 17,502 11,134<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 60 362 336 15,651 10,496 126,175 28,531 4,501 265 6,848 112,451 3,625 14,102 27,526 30,231 46,134<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 27 166 2,251 17,844 508 2,440 13,763 2,028 106 13,183 4,857 67,120 16,684 2,285 12,899 7,676<br />

13 Metal products 43 258 1,748 12,388 4,390 16,936 22,145 2,058 1,018 2,537 17,011 4,124 109,036 148,105 33,037 82,683<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 68 413 715 3,366 2,960 3,684 1,119 2,498 479 1,188 3,207 3,232 15,979 138,586 17,943 33,253<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 10 64 575 1,647 903 874 815 1,463 253 1,380 5,441 1,142 12,359 42,013 251,814 39,693<br />

16 Transportation equipment 72 437 23 0 0 0 0 61 0 25 667 332 1,128 1,812 426 104,539<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 2 144 374 1,204 782 75 557 7 342 962 849 520 896 5,745 530<br />

18 Energy and water 566 3,426 5,382 31,713 28,717 20,848 18,449 11,367 2,587 10,323 28,635 13,572 30,397 11,159 8,057 6,953<br />

19 Construction 20 121 994 2,997 2,447 5,243 1,351 1,996 508 1,473 3,448 2,821 4,890 3,410 3,957 2,381<br />

20 Trade 5,874 35,575 37,429 319,298 288,058 623,033 158,516 130,013 2,095 76,724 231,782 104,844 346,983 223,905 199,764 188,048<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 8 49 1,610 9,081 11,661 14,509 9,022 3,529 3,236 6,026 7,473 6,663 18,130 17,704 19,817 10,996<br />

22 Transport and communication 586 3,549 9,079 64,702 34,519 75,687 29,033 20,527 7,153 23,104 35,504 24,911 77,821 51,771 42,365 33,677<br />

23 Credit and insurance 6,013 36,419 7,767 141,596 144,731 251,049 175,523 49,337 19,101 25,241 73,315 37,759 202,869 114,488 90,675 48,346<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 417 2,525 10,263 87,355 114,980 130,547 59,124 52,080 4,595 50,591 70,298 34,197 145,390 98,810 118,346 85,023<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 218 1,319 1,286 35,935 12,335 8,100 2,995 13,635 386 9,617 11,651 2,901 13,903 10,640 15,413 25,149<br />

Total intermediate costs 34,387 208,271 103,909 2,063,739 2,058,769 3,703,807 1,658,067 545,771 155,614 424,124 985,827 358,442 1,247,175 974,173 923,362 784,727<br />

Value Added 92,306 559,076 87,934 1,007,733 1,439,762 2,156,121 980,418 604,594 173,357 356,380 918,146 401,008 1,639,171 915,799 794,842 671,591<br />

Imports 7,873 47,682 141,031 453,824 357,849 1,034,850 309,997 509,789 229,236 428,805 965,006 308,693 1,396,913 1,063,552 945,258 822,544<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 23,228 140,687 149,678 2,542,713 905,442 2,278,707 519,762 315,500 1,007,612 628,814 430,384 131,918 465,331 744,524 1,655,528 1,433,187<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 123,407 747,445 378,643 4,004,270 2,703,053 5,469,678 1,810,177 1,429,883 1,410,205 1,413,999 2,313,536 841,619 3,501,415 2,723,875 3,395,628 2,927,322<br />

INPUT 157,793 955,717 482,552 6,068,009 4,761,822 9,173,485 3,468,244 1,975,654 1,565,819 1,838,123 3,299,363 1,200,061 4,748,590 3,698,048 4,318,990 3,712,049<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.8 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by West’s SLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 437 1 67 7 17,502 164 13 8 1,357 121,203 0 13,380 23,211 36,591 157,793<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,650 7 405 39 106,006 995 77 50 8,216 780,918 159,158 81,036 -65,396 174,798 955,717<br />

3 Mining 39,369 4,937 21,727 4,753 2 329 1 8 1,345 361,144 21 64,099 57,285 121,405 482,552<br />

4 Food and tobacco 311 0 0 580 1,244,958 4,130 0 0 52,372 2,282,797 3,422,898 499,047 -136,731 3,785,214 6,068,009<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 2,641 0 5,487 6,974 16,936 11,105 910 2,033 29,608 1,551,004 970,514 1,378,256 862,047 3,210,817 4,761,822<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,469 0 0 13,161 3 449 684 12 4,922 1,953,214 1,222,451 3,815,215 2,182,611 7,220,277 9,173,485<br />

7 Timber and furniture 7,596 0 70,087 20,551 20,568 4,461 2,044 6,799 22,531 1,283,064 502,549 739,343 943,289 2,185,181 3,468,244<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 2,347 1,073 5,181 48,412 24,278 15,536 10,064 19,647 69,485 520,642 786,656 209,852 458,503 1,455,011 1,975,654<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 3,543 75,413 14,868 51,014 36,108 136,692 2,663 12,452 92,588 674,907 1,310,482 70,322 -489,888 890,916 1,565,819<br />

10 Chemicals 5,216 4,378 19,391 7,930 17,055 3,150 1,128 4,942 190,654 1,010,134 1,030,849 354,408 -557,267 827,990 1,838,123<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 5,044 1,035 20,508 19,210 2,089 24,135 93 5,222 13,947 518,577 741,863 797,984 1,240,933 2,780,780 3,299,363<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 5,828 593 189,160 1,910 15,008 521 0 569 4,557 381,983 92,384 243,139 482,555 818,078 1,200,061<br />

13 Metal products 10,575 4,370 51,725 51,483 5,504 6,275 1,804 4,650 11,708 605,611 434,220 1,039,570 2,669,186 4,142,976 4,748,590<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 666 4,138 11,976 10,663 0 6,960 1,022 2,167 11,300 277,582 30,398 1,887,604 1,502,464 3,420,466 3,698,048<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 3,019 8,969 44,484 51,318 3,274 8,695 1,847 4,805 24,825 511,682 1,257,214 1,253,572 1,296,524 3,807,310 4,318,990<br />

16 Transportation equipment 15 0 0 50,743 34 21,576 0 765 22,241 204,896 2,708,267 1,010,597 -211,710 3,507,154 3,712,049<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 2,161 99 226 279 207 690 100 715 4,921 22,387 1,714,160 462,524 -1,047,247 1,129,437 1,151,822<br />

18 Energy and water 2,869 57,944 4,932 32,158 56,771 14,285 8,944 12,234 76,092 498,380 1,157,021 2,145 -140,098 1,019,068 1,517,448<br />

19 Construction 273 14,785 34,869 9,419 16,539 26,249 9,725 47,152 64,796 261,864 134,195 116,344 3,506,094 3,756,633 4,018,494<br />

20 Trade 39,855 11,796 124,696 473,104 565,091 228,611 28,406 75,783 246,463 4,765,746 1,985,769 557,511 2,531,168 5,074,448 9,840,197<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 2,151 2,959 13,795 64,210 0 55,525 21,959 40,990 153,568 494,671 2,845,000 1,401 3,354,924 6,201,325 6,695,999<br />

22 Transport and communication 8,981 6,768 48,352 131,139 59,418 287,239 37,211 29,575 103,614 1,246,285 3,815,000 922,688 -367,076 4,370,612 5,616,891<br />

23 Credit and insurance 28,692 22,807 303,289 777,661 108,321 240,709 385,737 112,250 1,289,347 4,693,042 78,635 271,542 225,762 575,939 5,268,981<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 22,359 24,126 132,163 422,808 226,783 178,209 777,219 220,970 779,777 3,848,955 772,049 205,534 601,055 1,578,638 5,427,597<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,513 1,308 5,086 145,694 112,097 52,408 40,178 40,664 562,954 1,127,385 3,738,548 89,711 15,360,633 19,188,892 20,316,279<br />

Total intermediate costs 199,580 247,506 1,122,474 2,395,220 2,654,552 1,329,098 1,331,829 644,462 3,843,188 29,998,073 30,910,301 16,086,824 34,282,831 81,279,956 111,278,027<br />

Value Added 218,372 668,987 1,701,561 5,684,439 2,993,008 3,114,066 2,734,659 3,856,790 13,802,821 47,572,941<br />

Imports 299,678 337,391 922,982 878,588 534,438 1,029,351 138,473 264,435 1,276,705 14,704,943<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 434,192 263,564 271,477 881,950 514,001 144,376 1,064,020 661,910 1,393,565 19,002,070<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 952,242 1,269,942 2,896,020 7,444,977 4,041,447 4,287,793 3,937,152 4,783,135 16,473,091 81,279,954<br />

INPUT 1,151,822 1,517,448 4,018,494 9,840,197 6,695,999 5,616,891 5,268,981 5,427,597 20,316,279 111,278,027<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.9 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-SLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 5 81,307 5,398 5,415 4,204 692 0 260 1,902 124 3 4 33 86<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 74,158 30 492,454 32,692 32,795 25,465 4,191 0 1,573 11,517 751 20 26 201 523<br />

3 Mining 0 0 21 0 0 0 1 0 1,431 1 0 78 0 0 0 0<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 169,521 0 572,098 1,738 124,653 2,089 1,917 40 14,915 558 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 332 2,012 291 2,496 856,046 99,463 32,507 3,575 44 958 26,123 1,444 5,792 1,742 2,367 6,988<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 56 340 74 0 29,819 2,131,392 32,914 1,870 39 344 4,877 24 2,293 768 1,639 1,082<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 228,046 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 6 35 445 20,513 3,487 7,156 8,048 111,333 108 6,191 8,471 4,610 7,183 6,147 8,002 2,817<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 67 468 200 112 1,055 22 2,013 268 0 206 269 107 66 134<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 274 1,255 7,620 4,525 4,754 1,760 158 11,202 17,345 1,134 2,148 864 1,402 883<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 47 286 246 10,560 7,029 76,268 29,696 2,646 174 4,440 63,750 2,359 9,599 18,681 20,053 30,338<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 30 185 1,797 13,718 374 1,645 15,136 1,335 77 9,452 3,097 48,275 12,489 1,707 9,437 5,589<br />

13 Metal products 58 348 1,679 11,117 3,899 13,754 29,257 1,631 892 2,190 13,070 3,572 98,251 133,103 29,104 72,704<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 15 7 0 0 290 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 13 80 585 1,540 849 746 1,164 1,216 233 1,257 4,364 1,043 11,767 39,911 234,231 36,802<br />

16 Transportation equipment 13 81 4 0 0 0 0 7 0 3 71 42 165 240 58 13,551<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

18 Energy and water 77 466 470 2,568 2,326 1,553 2,177 828 207 814 2,027 1,074 2,496 914 648 557<br />

19 Construction 83 501 2,905 8,091 6,613 12,963 5,423 4,817 1,355 3,870 8,067 7,434 13,406 9,324 10,615 6,354<br />

20 Trade 19,113 115,763 52,559 447,869 401,381 823,755 293,294 165,427 2,834 104,012 291,569 142,753 481,335 315,307 277,515 261,185<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 12 72 1,552 8,156 10,444 11,953 11,767 2,843 2,860 5,256 5,848 5,828 16,459 16,031 17,620 9,766<br />

22 Transport and communication 264 1,601 11,085 68,480 39,978 72,561 52,772 20,666 7,595 26,360 32,632 25,840 91,234 61,876 48,608 37,812<br />

23 Credit and insurance 3,327 20,153 2,757 46,761 47,735 76,165 84,305 14,635 6,219 8,108 21,127 12,163 67,822 38,180 29,686 15,815<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 641 3,882 10,621 84,372 110,579 114,274 82,976 44,903 4,476 47,974 59,633 32,134 141,459 96,398 114,716 82,203<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 369 2,232 1,396 36,465 12,440 7,515 4,399 12,368 384 9,446 10,266 2,858 14,212 10,850 15,434 25,006<br />

Total intermediate costs 86,462 497,311 88,878 1,910,295 1,580,647 3,618,663 951,739 398,682 31,139 258,894 586,314 293,746 978,402 752,180 821,435 610,195<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 39,733 526,084 562,583 2,332,200 1,020,555 723,907 273,851 555,452 1,181,054 398,000 1,285,100 1,058,012 901,106 761,982<br />

Imports 191,944 1,162,556 469,113 934,995 1,296,358 1,227,930 769,065 530,283 339,529 591,885 1,171,843 368,188 1,501,627 1,209,118 999,961 968,305<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -357,722 -2,166,641 -115,177 2,696,628 1,322,235 1,994,695 726,886 322,785 921,298 431,887 360,150 140,129 983,458 678,734 1,596,490 1,371,573<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,669 393,669 4,157,707 3,181,176 5,554,825 2,516,506 1,576,975 1,534,678 1,579,224 2,713,047 906,317 3,770,185 2,945,864 3,497,557 3,101,860<br />

INPUT 161,530 951,980 482,547 6,068,002 4,761,823 9,173,488 3,468,245 1,975,657 1,565,817 1,838,118 3,299,361 1,200,063 4,748,587 3,698,044 4,318,992 3,712,055<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.9 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-SLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 408 1 67 6 14,910 209 12 13 1,299 116,489 0 15,437 29,604 45,041 161,530<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,469 6 404 37 90,303 1,267 74 78 7,871 795,009 129,117 93,498 -65,644 156,971 951,980<br />

3 Mining 0 4,671 0 0 2 2 1 3 12 6,223 497,582 27 -21,284 476,325 482,547<br />

4 Food and tobacco 174 0 0 487 969,125 4,440 0 0 45,033 1,919,638 2,586,071 1,119,648 442,646 4,148,365 6,068,002<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 1,807 0 3,929 4,779 10,912 10,797 636 2,009 20,635 1,097,684 707,953 2,844,802 111,381 3,664,136 4,761,823<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,713 0 0 15,650 3 735 821 22 5,909 2,232,384 1,725,000 4,805,771 410,332 6,941,103 9,173,488<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 1,619 0 3,160 0 232,825 0 3,254,227 -18,806 3,235,421 3,468,245<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 1,434 705 3,561 29,519 12,502 19,121 6,497 26,322 44,725 338,938 1,208,394 352,517 75,809 1,636,720 1,975,657<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 43 1,468 363 619 0 15,170 47 1,606 1,577 61,600 1,547,654 244,003 -287,438 1,504,219 1,565,817<br />

10 Chemicals 384 352 1,651 604 1,008 495 89 907 14,832 178,457 1,226,454 392,813 40,396 1,659,663 1,838,118<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 3,172 689 14,147 12,195 1,153 27,972 61 6,216 9,135 350,912 1,167,175 1,624,884 156,391 2,948,450 3,299,361<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 4,068 435 143,275 1,356 9,348 550 0 750 3,300 287,425 157,224 581,640 173,775 912,639 1,200,063<br />

13 Metal products 8,889 3,858 47,157 44,265 4,132 8,821 1,575 7,580 10,206 551,112 594,420 2,008,970 1,594,084 4,197,474 4,748,587<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 0 0 0 2,397 0 802 0 3,511 15,122 3,762,952 -83,539 3,694,535 3,698,044<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 2,666 8,353 42,904 46,558 2,560 14,047 1,699 7,830 22,864 485,282 1,095,759 1,476,012 1,261,938 3,833,709 4,318,992<br />

16 Transportation equipment 2 0 0 6,532 3 5,003 0 192 3,359 29,325 1,942,067 876,696 863,963 3,682,726 3,712,055<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 140 0 140 406,170 1,070,293 -324,779 1,151,684 1,151,822<br />

18 Energy and water 221 4,668 410 2,473 3,933 1,870 713 1,764 6,037 41,291 2,578,813 7,048 -1,109,706 1,476,155 1,517,447<br />

19 Construction 698 39,718 96,720 24,130 37,819 117,453 25,829 247,450 172,212 863,850 90,324 110,943 2,953,375 3,154,642 4,018,492<br />

20 Trade 53,605 16,300 176,640 636,049 709,350 441,612 36,634 155,357 330,531 6,751,749 1,975,347 591,550 521,550 3,088,447 9,840,199<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 1,830 2,635 12,662 54,502 0 79,056 19,348 59,951 134,799 491,250 2,845,000 1,491 3,358,258 6,204,749 6,695,997<br />

22 Transport and communication 8,847 8,481 52,637 170,878 61,304 602,724 52,410 66,801 124,491 1,747,937 3,815,000 1,039,830 -985,882 3,868,948 5,616,895<br />

23 Credit and insurance 8,989 7,480 102,513 243,507 30,553 124,146 125,162 64,499 418,222 1,620,029 500,805 2,074,363 1,073,787 3,648,955 5,268,984<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 20,295 23,932 130,244 399,852 190,439 276,770 734,052 380,548 760,112 3,947,485 406,013 9,165,794 -8,091,692 1,480,115 5,427,596<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,449 1,311 5,257 139,242 96,678 82,064 39,863 74,289 556,658 1,162,451 3,692,833 308,947 15,152,051 19,153,831 20,316,284<br />

Total intermediate costs 123,163 125,063 834,541 1,833,240 2,246,037 1,838,340 1,045,523 1,108,289 2,693,819 25,312,996 30,910,297 37,824,156 17,230,570 85,965,023 111,278,024<br />

Value Added 298,639 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,700 2,373,700 2,203,600 8,858,200 39,170,058<br />

Imports 283,654 455,153 1,173,092 1,439,242 1,115,639 1,852,960 384,367 2,875,255 2,394,586 25,706,648<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 446,366 288,831 -289,341 359,817 1,410,821 888,895 1,465,394 -759,548 6,369,679 21,088,322<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 1,028,659 1,392,384 3,183,951 8,006,959 4,449,960 3,778,555 4,223,461 4,319,307 17,622,465 85,965,028<br />

INPUT 1,151,822 1,517,447 4,018,492 9,840,199 6,695,997 5,616,895 5,268,984 5,427,596 20,316,284 111,278,024<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.10 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-CILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 0 6,879 502 94 772 10 0 11 11 11 0 0 2 5<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 44,723 0 41,663 3,041 570 4,678 61 0 68 66 68 2 2 10 28<br />

3 Mining 13 76 5,432 1,713 206 71 688 372 1,685 552 2,033 3,182 83,856 26,814 11,700 12,762<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 133,714 0 739,853 2,815 112,812 1,873 1,846 70 18,329 561 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 329 1,990 349 3,632 1,392,880 25,592 24,223 5,023 59 1,395 36,435 2,353 8,904 2,628 3,454 9,870<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 216 1,310 49 0 27,316 1,702,060 30,459 1,508 28 283 3,930 22 1,975 650 1,312 880<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 135,242 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 87 526 1,517 75,871 14,621 5,162 11,554 525,630 437 27,904 40,965 23,189 32,910 27,725 33,625 12,344<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 1,038 9,694 4,625 1,109 3,010 2,509 302,983 50,827 4,394 8,697 6,736 4,064 1,622 19,010<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 1,356 5,886 40,176 4,260 7,792 10,956 4,976 425,782 140,133 9,261 13,193 7,922 7,467 26,130<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 225 1,364 876 33,524 25,112 46,238 38,950 10,417 746 21,301 317,954 12,536 40,410 90,366 72,301 141,214<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 94 566 5,116 34,574 1,085 784 17,198 4,117 270 37,163 12,013 212,526 42,564 6,837 27,311 21,422<br />

13 Metal products 179 1,082 4,523 29,663 11,619 6,790 33,920 5,210 2,708 7,432 45,020 13,514 344,767 459,417 86,778 241,746<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 173 1,045 1,189 4,780 4,723 872 1,060 3,729 1,150 3,135 5,823 7,628 30,313 389,630 28,131 88,867<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 46 276 1,314 3,949 2,425 346 1,313 3,478 612 3,603 12,734 3,381 35,319 117,039 667,123 103,141<br />

16 Transportation equipment 63 384 14 0 0 0 0 33 0 78 445 277 761 1,821 241 323,371<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 1 0 28 0 0 87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

18 Energy and water 87 528 308 2,634 2,620 197 1,367 664 1,192 5,197 1,910 1,802 3,076 1,623 596 2,778<br />

19 Construction 55 332 0 1,836 1,389 0 2,449 0 4 268 0 1,492 2,024 1,207 843 374<br />

20 Trade 24,997 151,403 24,289 279,919 253,430 231,480 210,574 87,226 1,392 57,300 149,205 91,154 289,282 179,596 150,747 136,790<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 14 84 351 4,475 5,570 1,516 7,389 921 765 2,049 1,786 3,091 7,667 7,108 6,982 3,747<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,223 7,409 4,076 69,781 41,766 7,902 36,276 12,233 3,757 23,574 18,341 26,735 87,863 53,096 38,580 27,544<br />

23 Credit and insurance 3,785 22,923 1,691 45,178 53,757 9,660 52,939 11,724 4,520 8,581 17,521 17,515 83,573 45,963 27,583 16,501<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 1,683 10,196 6,674 83,308 109,538 46,749 83,664 37,718 2,702 35,756 43,270 31,943 129,211 83,142 84,881 59,244<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 419 2,538 280 17,728 5,892 953 2,760 3,559 90 3,270 2,784 1,346 5,879 4,272 5,416 8,163<br />

Total intermediate costs 95,708 488,066 60,441 1,496,568 2,005,108 2,205,217 710,237 728,944 330,146 733,858 857,334 471,723 1,250,285 1,510,922 1,256,705 1,255,931<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 28,899 548,466 551,035 2,332,200 1,020,555 730,554 252,319 576,984 1,196,170 398,000 1,285,100 1,079,504 892,720 748,876<br />

Imports 253,759 1,536,956 1,494,126 411,942 497,881 2,321,946 871,197 129,811 4,633 16,049 785,575 127,265 361,577 78,624 216,847 23,272<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -419,538 -2,541,041 -1,100,917 3,611,032 1,707,800 2,314,125 866,258 386,346 978,723 511,228 460,283 203,069 1,851,629 1,028,998 1,952,718 1,683,967<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,668 422,108 4,571,440 2,756,716 6,968,271 2,758,010 1,246,711 1,235,675 1,104,261 2,442,028 728,334 3,498,306 2,187,126 3,062,285 2,456,115<br />

INPUT 170,776 942,734 482,549 6,068,008 4,761,824 9,173,488 3,468,247 1,975,655 1,565,821 1,838,119 3,299,362 1,200,057 4,748,591 3,698,048 4,318,990 3,712,046<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.10 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-CILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 0 0 4 0 734 45 1 2 63 9,279 0 10,501 150,996 161,496 170,776<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 0 0 23 3 4,446 272 6 15 384 116,230 1,302,214 63,599 -539,309 826,504 942,734<br />

3 Mining 3,783 3,720 3,546 546 1 307 1 4 260 163,323 239,245 6,929 73,053 319,227 482,549<br />

4 Food and tobacco 343 0 0 220 695,824 8,566 0 0 31,204 1,760,880 943,810 3,213,947 149,372 4,307,129 6,068,008<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 1,028 0 2,332 2,463 8,123 17,129 1,027 1,270 12,335 1,564,823 414,501 2,743,603 38,898 3,197,002 4,761,824<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,239 0 0 12,747 3 738 750 19 5,171 1,792,665 1,656,957 5,515,158 208,710 7,380,825 9,173,488<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 1,706 0 1,429 0 138,377 68,043 3,254,227 7,599 3,329,869 3,468,247<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 2,214 2,545 5,327 41,781 28,188 55,718 32,163 29,569 73,725 1,105,297 81,561 753,242 35,555 870,358 1,975,655<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 578 192,962 2,612 7,478 7,064 81,720 1,578 3,133 16,074 769,237 12,539,726 964,732 -12,707,874 796,584 1,565,821<br />

10 Chemicals 765 10,703 3,085 1,002 3,067 1,670 611 1,139 28,591 858,734 5,729 963,461 10,194 979,384 1,838,119<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 4,188 2,710 18,283 13,989 2,110 74,026 282 6,534 12,803 988,459 22,898 2,265,519 22,483 2,310,900 3,299,362<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 4,217 1,378 149,655 1,205 13,398 1,352 0 684 3,829 599,358 8,588 526,430 65,682 600,700 1,200,057<br />

13 Metal products 9,566 10,648 50,784 39,635 6,107 21,043 5,882 7,006 12,036 1,457,075 22,221 2,926,062 343,230 3,291,513 4,748,591<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 353 8,880 7,030 4,848 0 14,958 2,059 1,881 7,478 619,735 689 3,762,952 -685,328 3,078,313 3,698,048<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 2,726 19,150 44,340 39,698 3,690 32,572 5,476 7,125 26,228 1,137,104 132,330 2,232,384 817,174 3,181,888 4,318,990<br />

16 Transportation equipment 3 0 0 8,339 8 14,581 0 223 5,251 355,893 9,988 3,194,451 151,718 3,356,157 3,712,046<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 1,302 0 997 0 2,415 166,324 1,070,293 -87,210 1,149,407 1,151,823<br />

18 Energy and water 50 26,640 146 827 1,756 2,667 1,007 958 1,947 62,577 540 207,724 1,246,609 1,454,873 1,517,448<br />

19 Construction 0 0 10,736 2,741 3,098 66,251 4,989 111,908 29,928 241,924 59,938 0 3,716,635 3,776,573 4,018,494<br />

20 Trade 24,164 6,708 98,276 380,809 417,985 359,356 25,508 113,676 187,375 3,932,641 3,479,156 1,029,699 1,398,706 5,907,561 9,840,197<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 414 485 4,514 18,484 0 64,302 10,062 31,408 41,176 224,360 2,845,000 875,034 2,751,601 6,471,635 6,695,996<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,310 2,757 18,639 60,679 27,742 880,507 48,523 38,998 50,094 1,589,405 3,814,999 506,023 -293,534 4,027,488 5,616,896<br />

23 Credit and insurance 2,035 3,741 36,550 81,330 13,642 174,827 176,749 34,732 175,048 1,122,068 3,866 482,872 3,660,175 4,146,913 5,268,980<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 14,808 10,433 113,048 342,695 189,288 294,949 724,143 344,676 652,789 3,536,508 2,505,717 83,170 -697,804 1,891,083 5,427,590<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 311 215 1,874 47,263 38,336 58,125 18,410 40,583 179,046 449,512 586,261 1,887,265 17,393,244 19,866,770 20,316,286<br />

Total intermediate costs 74,095 303,675 570,804 1,108,782 1,464,610 2,228,689 1,059,227 777,969 1,552,835 24,597,878 30,910,301 38,539,277 17,230,574 86,680,152 111,278,024<br />

Value Added 276,876 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,700 2,373,700 2,203,600 8,858,200 39,170,058<br />

Imports 293,444 269,050 1,383,391 2,095,323 1,357,629 1,163,527 42,203 2,629,969 2,825,587 21,191,583<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 507,408 296,323 -235,901 428,192 1,950,257 1,187,980 1,793,850 -183,948 7,079,664 26,318,505<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 1,077,728 1,213,773 3,447,690 8,731,415 5,231,386 3,388,207 4,209,753 4,649,621 18,763,451 86,680,146<br />

INPUT 1,151,823 1,517,448 4,018,494 9,840,197 6,695,996 5,616,896 5,268,980 5,427,590 20,316,286 111,278,024<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.11 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-PLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 5 81,273 5,348 5,386 4,160 688 0 258 1,888 123 3 4 33 86<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 80,266 30 492,254 32,395 32,620 25,194 4,165 0 1,564 11,436 746 20 26 199 518<br />

3 Mining 0 0 21 0 0 0 1 0 1,432 1 0 78 0 0 0 0<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 151,761 0 472,719 1,559 188,786 1,762 1,538 40 12,617 458 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 368 2,227 294 2,554 869,079 101,374 32,761 3,642 44 975 26,617 1,469 5,892 1,773 2,408 7,111<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 61 367 74 0 29,750 2,135,237 32,727 1,872 39 344 4,879 24 2,294 769 1,641 1,083<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 224,988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 6 37 438 20,493 3,425 7,071 7,916 109,810 107 6,112 8,336 4,548 7,091 6,083 7,903 2,784<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 58 413 159 59 1,002 2 1,606 208 0 160 226 91 54 108<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 269 1,252 7,439 4,446 4,662 1,724 155 11,003 16,942 1,113 2,110 851 1,377 867<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 51 310 244 10,611 6,970 76,056 29,385 2,636 174 4,423 63,419 2,348 9,556 18,632 19,974 30,227<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 32 193 1,728 13,300 359 1,588 14,496 1,287 75 9,117 2,985 46,542 12,039 1,648 9,102 5,392<br />

13 Metal products 62 378 1,672 11,191 3,881 13,759 29,023 1,631 890 2,189 13,051 3,567 98,108 133,128 29,079 72,661<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 15 8 0 0 298 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 14 86 590 1,637 926 827 1,217 1,307 243 1,318 4,443 1,081 11,929 41,591 244,229 38,452<br />

16 Transportation equipment 13 78 4 0 0 0 0 9 0 4 90 53 174 305 65 16,636<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

18 Energy and water 84 507 469 2,589 2,320 1,557 2,164 830 208 815 2,029 1,075 2,497 916 649 559<br />

19 Construction 90 545 2,897 8,158 6,589 12,983 5,384 4,820 1,355 3,871 8,065 7,432 13,401 9,336 10,618 6,357<br />

20 Trade 20,522 124,299 52,387 449,268 399,662 822,979 291,305 165,222 2,829 103,853 290,967 142,485 480,449 315,022 277,054 260,792<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 13 79 1,550 8,227 10,420 11,986 11,697 2,848 2,862 5,263 5,854 5,835 16,472 16,070 17,646 9,782<br />

22 Transport and communication 302 1,829 11,060 69,235 39,853 72,781 52,479 20,711 7,596 26,435 32,643 25,838 91,411 62,152 48,730 37,906<br />

23 Credit and insurance 3,620 21,923 2,752 47,116 47,618 76,357 83,783 14,661 6,222 8,118 21,145 12,173 67,864 38,263 29,723 15,839<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 696 4,215 10,589 84,937 110,174 114,408 82,380 44,926 4,475 47,989 59,624 32,124 141,381 96,506 114,760 82,249<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 159 965 1,416 37,348 12,608 7,654 4,441 12,587 391 9,608 10,440 2,905 14,448 11,047 15,700 25,445<br />

Total intermediate costs 88,114 495,660 88,562 1,814,583 1,590,534 3,687,914 943,225 396,916 30,743 256,085 585,311 291,719 977,365 754,213 830,944 614,854<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 39,521 531,972 556,907 2,332,200 1,020,555 724,261 273,723 555,580 1,180,835 398,000 1,285,100 1,058,580 900,698 761,821<br />

Imports 192,638 1,166,760 480,060 1,010,134 1,295,365 1,153,640 782,012 531,095 338,999 593,998 1,172,614 369,952 1,498,093 1,203,838 987,996 961,126<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -358,417 -2,170,846 -125,595 2,711,317 1,319,014 1,999,735 722,455 323,384 922,354 432,456 360,599 140,389 988,034 681,417 1,599,351 1,374,247<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,667 393,986 4,253,423 3,171,286 5,485,575 2,525,022 1,578,740 1,535,076 1,582,034 2,714,048 908,341 3,771,227 2,943,835 3,488,045 3,097,194<br />

INPUT 163,182 950,327 482,548 6,068,006 4,761,820 9,173,489 3,468,247 1,975,656 1,565,819 1,838,119 3,299,359 1,200,060 4,748,592 3,698,048 4,318,989 3,712,048<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.11 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-PLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 405 1 66 6 15,003 208 12 13 1,292 116,393 0 15,327 31,462 46,789 163,182<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,452 6 402 36 90,867 1,260 73 78 7,823 800,533 124,836 92,830 -67,872 149,794 950,327<br />

3 Mining 0 4,671 0 0 2 2 1 3 12 6,224 498,610 27 -22,312 476,325 482,548<br />

4 Food and tobacco 264 0 0 403 789,376 4,277 0 0 39,457 1,677,867 2,580,398 1,299,957 509,785 4,390,140 6,068,006<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 1,839 0 3,996 4,865 11,219 10,918 647 2,031 20,995 1,115,098 623,774 2,908,984 113,963 3,646,721 4,761,820<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,713 0 0 15,669 3 735 822 22 5,914 2,236,039 1,722,488 4,804,491 410,467 6,937,446 9,173,489<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 1,642 0 3,182 0 229,812 2,512 3,254,227 -18,304 3,238,435 3,468,247<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 1,413 695 3,515 29,116 12,630 18,988 6,408 26,142 44,156 335,223 1,218,293 347,389 74,751 1,640,433 1,975,656<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 30 1,192 309 432 0 14,745 37 1,567 1,237 59,415 1,551,325 244,003 -288,922 1,506,406 1,565,819<br />

10 Chemicals 376 346 1,621 593 1,019 488 87 898 14,548 176,997 1,236,589 384,921 39,608 1,661,118 1,838,119<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 3,155 686 14,081 12,147 1,170 27,900 61 6,199 9,095 349,510 1,178,214 1,616,008 155,630 2,949,852 3,299,359<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 3,920 419 138,085 1,308 9,166 528 0 723 3,182 277,214 160,570 586,842 175,433 922,845 1,200,060<br />

13 Metal products 8,873 3,853 47,079 44,250 4,197 8,814 1,571 7,569 10,194 550,670 600,403 2,005,355 1,592,163 4,197,921 4,748,592<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 0 0 0 2,519 0 842 0 3,682 15,356 3,762,952 -83,943 3,694,365 3,698,048<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 2,669 8,416 44,166 48,015 2,601 14,543 1,693 8,322 24,632 504,947 1,100,466 1,463,392 1,250,187 3,814,045 4,318,989<br />

16 Transportation equipment 3 0 0 7,880 4 5,026 0 240 3,089 33,673 1,955,459 867,705 855,209 3,678,373 3,712,048<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 124 0 124 409,182 1,070,293 -327,776 1,151,699 1,151,820<br />

18 Energy and water 221 4,671 410 2,476 3,999 1,871 713 1,764 6,042 41,435 2,605,573 7,048 -1,136,607 1,476,014 1,517,448<br />

19 Construction 698 39,709 96,663 24,132 38,453 117,431 25,813 247,332 172,264 864,396 91,252 110,825 2,952,019 3,154,096 4,018,493<br />

20 Trade 53,482 16,269 176,263 634,897 715,608 441,178 36,580 155,201 329,986 6,758,559 1,971,281 589,957 520,392 3,081,630 9,840,195<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 1,831 2,638 12,669 54,566 0 79,109 19,359 59,968 134,871 491,615 2,845,000 1,491 3,357,890 6,204,381 6,695,994<br />

22 Transport and communication 8,837 8,484 52,597 171,901 62,670 608,531 52,443 66,857 124,539 1,757,820 3,815,000 1,036,336 -992,270 3,859,066 5,616,888<br />

23 Credit and insurance 8,993 7,485 102,553 243,759 31,064 124,204 125,209 64,502 418,710 1,623,656 501,795 2,074,363 1,069,168 3,645,326 5,268,980<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 20,278 23,938 130,148 400,059 193,530 276,735 733,458 380,395 760,162 3,950,136 406,720 9,140,897 -8,070,160 1,477,457 5,427,591<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,473 1,334 5,343 141,605 99,869 83,409 40,515 75,480 565,806 1,181,996 3,695,204 308,473 15,130,607 19,134,284 20,316,281<br />

Total intermediate costs 122,925 124,813 829,966 1,838,115 2,082,450 1,845,061 1,045,502 1,109,454 2,698,006 25,143,033 30,910,300 37,994,093 17,230,568 86,134,961 111,277,998<br />

Value Added 298,503 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,700 2,373,700 2,203,600 8,858,200 39,170,056<br />

Imports 282,860 453,362 1,177,018 1,433,843 1,255,594 1,845,659 383,831 2,873,578 2,388,423 25,832,488<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 447,532 290,873 -288,691 360,337 1,434,450 889,468 1,465,947 -759,041 6,371,652 21,132,421<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 1,028,895 1,392,635 3,188,527 8,002,080 4,613,544 3,771,827 4,223,478 4,318,137 17,618,275 86,134,965<br />

INPUT 1,151,820 1,517,448 4,018,493 9,840,195 6,695,994 5,616,888 5,268,980 5,427,591 20,316,281 111,277,998<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.12 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-RLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 4 76,639 4,941 5,111 4,070 693 0 278 1,868 123 3 4 33 89<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 117,850 27 464,184 29,923 30,958 24,653 4,196 0 1,681 11,314 746 19 27 198 540<br />

3 Mining 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 1,328 1 0 59 0 0 0 0<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 116,789 0 895,541 2,801 16,653 1,872 3,713 73 30,016 1,076 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 239 1,449 603 3,989 1,502,079 52,303 30,434 7,628 105 2,273 57,953 3,240 12,810 4,082 4,778 15,968<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 91 553 70 0 28,985 2,139,481 33,172 1,983 43 386 5,089 25 2,350 846 1,691 1,168<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 230,630 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 11 64 1,060 36,441 6,644 4,255 8,256 286,172 366 21,524 25,707 14,238 18,272 20,637 18,800 9,129<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 176 1,267 525 179 1,225 334 70,428 11,326 420 1,326 1,137 916 290 3,523<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 610 2,117 13,635 2,551 4,762 4,428 2,390 184,385 50,984 3,431 5,279 3,590 3,206 10,759<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 44 269 564 17,705 12,726 42,379 29,295 6,228 680 17,569 177,442 6,794 22,876 71,618 43,907 112,424<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 28 173 4,286 23,885 703 945 15,197 3,209 310 38,665 8,845 142,019 30,507 6,613 21,131 21,650<br />

13 Metal products 52 313 3,936 18,887 7,193 7,750 29,032 3,850 2,953 7,368 36,603 10,327 235,959 437,689 64,020 232,245<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 0 3 0 0 287 0 67 174 0 0 0 20,921 0 2,861<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 12 71 1,351 2,587 1,541 414 1,148 2,849 682 3,737 11,677 2,820 28,025 115,899 511,020 103,468<br />

16 Transportation equipment 11 69 8 0 0 0 0 15 0 44 178 111 373 871 120 144,141<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

18 Energy and water 74 449 1,160 4,593 4,529 924 2,231 2,048 2,919 12,498 5,970 3,245 6,274 3,615 1,489 6,630<br />

19 Construction 77 467 2,603 7,723 6,138 7,563 5,340 4,995 1,492 4,322 8,183 7,607 13,339 10,181 10,737 6,726<br />

20 Trade 20,705 125,404 49,574 444,678 390,055 607,372 294,523 173,423 3,094 114,704 301,271 148,180 489,899 342,099 285,993 277,147<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 11 70 1,668 9,325 11,625 7,108 12,065 3,511 3,719 6,924 7,091 7,091 19,495 20,665 21,211 12,285<br />

22 Transport and communication 129 783 17,631 103,540 68,071 36,338 50,205 40,264 15,697 56,781 59,967 48,164 169,321 130,563 92,356 75,804<br />

23 Credit and insurance 3,205 19,413 6,821 83,895 92,935 45,292 86,435 36,176 21,949 29,003 62,234 36,759 170,485 133,633 68,247 54,031<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 677 4,099 9,928 84,120 107,072 75,009 84,426 48,388 5,091 55,354 63,027 34,142 146,225 108,833 120,620 90,489<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 355 2,150 1,332 37,028 12,297 4,469 4,509 13,567 444 11,050 11,055 3,087 14,950 12,419 16,492 27,787<br />

Total intermediate costs 87,743 496,029 103,425 2,318,147 2,304,418 3,087,054 953,767 647,670 133,830 610,063 907,954 473,534 1,387,598 1,445,721 1,286,339 1,208,864<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 34,635 542,766 550,998 2,332,200 1,020,555 735,933 271,439 557,864 1,182,102 398,000 1,285,100 1,093,482 861,230 766,388<br />

Imports 195,140 1,181,920 1,290,216 488,160 621,088 1,761,674 757,629 241,634 109,292 168,641 811,019 164,079 633,445 185,354 426,458 129,978<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -360,919 -2,186,004 -945,733 2,718,928 1,285,323 1,992,561 736,297 350,422 1,051,260 501,552 398,285 164,446 1,442,447 973,488 1,744,960 1,606,818<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,669 379,118 3,749,854 2,457,409 6,086,435 2,514,481 1,327,989 1,431,991 1,228,057 2,391,406 726,525 3,360,992 2,252,324 3,032,648 2,503,184<br />

INPUT 162,811 950,698 482,543 6,068,001 4,761,827 9,173,489 3,468,248 1,975,659 1,565,821 1,838,120 3,299,360 1,200,059 4,748,590 3,698,045 4,318,987 3,712,048<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.12 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-RLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 380 1 63 6 14,271 201 11 13 1,226 110,160 0 14,472 38,179 52,651 162,811<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,300 7 381 34 86,436 1,219 70 76 7,428 800,370 141,828 87,655 -79,155 150,328 950,698<br />

3 Mining 0 4,862 0 0 1 0 1 0 3 6,268 508,640 22 -32,383 476,279 482,543<br />

4 Food and tobacco 37 0 0 370 943,714 6,324 0 0 37,732 2,069,561 2,740,976 894,330 363,139 3,998,445 6,068,001<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 1,686 0 3,457 3,630 10,849 17,208 1,380 1,740 18,679 1,758,562 699,335 2,213,140 90,787 3,003,262 4,761,827<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,696 0 0 15,576 3 741 824 23 5,920 2,240,716 1,725,000 4,780,142 427,629 6,932,771 9,173,489<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 1,660 0 2,931 0 235,221 0 3,254,227 -21,200 3,233,027 3,468,248<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 1,486 2,646 3,493 25,074 14,430 33,187 16,293 24,736 45,411 638,332 1,030,151 250,688 56,484 1,337,323 1,975,659<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 83 86,992 525 1,010 471 29,284 198 1,653 2,675 251,683 1,323,942 244,003 -253,807 1,314,138 1,565,821<br />

10 Chemicals 375 8,949 1,547 485 1,108 839 213 837 14,236 423,527 1,103,533 280,803 30,256 1,414,592 1,838,120<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 3,095 2,921 13,106 9,733 1,227 46,850 144 5,653 8,716 653,965 1,183,543 1,327,938 133,913 2,645,394 3,299,360<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 4,111 1,890 136,706 1,118 10,279 926 0 692 3,253 477,141 143,741 441,098 138,077 722,916 1,200,059<br />

13 Metal products 8,815 13,811 44,231 35,855 4,451 14,849 3,757 6,909 9,876 1,240,731 577,713 1,599,975 1,330,165 3,507,853 4,748,590<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 1,664 0 0 0 4,060 0 737 0 30,774 16,868 3,762,952 -112,546 3,667,274 3,698,045<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 2,611 26,577 39,796 37,246 2,728 23,535 4,012 7,117 21,870 952,793 1,096,694 1,194,955 1,074,549 3,366,198 4,318,987<br />

16 Transportation equipment 2 0 0 4,736 3 8,066 0 168 3,090 162,006 2,098,194 716,338 735,512 3,550,044 3,712,048<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 451,952 1,070,293 -370,424 1,151,821 1,151,820<br />

18 Energy and water 231 141,601 403 2,113 4,479 3,240 1,788 1,652 6,133 220,288 2,727,866 6,347 -1,437,057 1,297,156 1,517,445<br />

19 Construction 663 47,171 93,135 20,234 37,187 116,300 24,978 232,346 166,174 835,681 105,325 106,518 2,970,973 3,182,816 4,018,493<br />

20 Trade 52,944 18,773 175,802 631,403 718,719 444,244 36,551 155,679 328,805 6,631,041 2,039,706 607,934 561,513 3,209,153 9,840,195<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 1,915 3,670 12,467 46,557 0 91,794 22,364 56,391 136,733 515,755 2,845,000 1,488 3,333,755 6,180,243 6,695,999<br />

22 Transport and communication 7,683 20,056 43,962 140,882 64,200 1,024,520 104,071 60,593 116,027 2,547,608 3,814,999 747,550 -1,493,261 3,069,288 5,616,899<br />

23 Credit and insurance 9,409 28,289 100,942 207,998 34,793 215,257 314,090 60,458 426,256 2,348,005 418,811 1,730,375 771,791 2,920,977 5,268,980<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 20,084 29,197 130,500 378,350 195,860 282,175 739,117 386,085 762,129 3,960,997 409,867 7,225,655 -6,168,918 1,466,604 5,427,595<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,465 1,622 5,177 118,947 101,362 84,765 40,918 69,490 565,056 1,161,793 3,706,618 305,274 15,142,601 19,154,493 20,316,286<br />

Total intermediate costs 121,071 440,699 805,693 1,681,357 2,246,571 2,451,244 1,310,780 1,075,979 2,687,428 30,272,977 30,910,302 32,864,172 17,230,572 81,005,046 111,278,017<br />

Value Added 285,566 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,700 2,373,700 2,203,600 8,858,200 39,170,058<br />

Imports 275,405 59,858 1,190,677 1,596,153 1,072,302 1,220,841 118,038 2,812,576 2,390,977 19,902,554<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 469,778 368,488 -278,077 354,785 1,453,626 908,114 1,466,462 -664,560 6,379,681 21,932,428<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 1,030,749 1,076,746 3,212,800 8,158,838 4,449,428 3,165,655 3,958,200 4,351,616 17,628,858 81,005,040<br />

INPUT 1,151,820 1,517,445 4,018,493 9,840,195 6,695,999 5,616,899 5,268,980 5,427,595 20,316,286 111,278,017<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.13 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-FLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 2 22,206 1,679 333 394 276 0 641 971 59 1 2 11 168<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 44,723 12 134,499 10,167 2,016 2,386 1,672 0 3,883 5,880 357 8 15 70 1,015<br />

3 Mining 49 300 2,268 309 39 24 68 130 676 833 824 670 18,079 8,398 2,995 15,268<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 41,174 0 14,236 63 2,794 25 61 15 3,655 24 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 99 600 664 65 1,497,312 574 321 133 10 226 1,235 66 215 98 78 1,323<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 74 450 9 0 2,808 39,589 943 225 27 257 751 4 268 136 171 642<br />

7 Timber and furniture 49 300 22 383 653 239 21,235 184 1 689 643 615 1,746 677 365 3,151<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 25 150 42 20,309 266 114 152 11,757 61 3,814 1,171 546 672 874 685 1,367<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 31 167 80 23 38 52 6,503 1,067 94 154 127 80 31 373<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 31 102 715 92 101 238 111 8,567 3,120 167 246 151 148 533<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 74 450 19 555 425 939 486 213 78 2,148 6,648 220 715 2,112 1,356 11,709<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 25 150 122 617 20 18 229 94 30 4,032 280 3,968 825 171 564 1,900<br />

13 Metal products 49 300 113 512 207 147 440 114 349 928 1,173 292 6,446 13,253 1,728 24,480<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 49 300 31 92 92 21 15 91 109 287 146 151 624 8,193 620 6,505<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 25 150 2,496 444 48 9 18 92 99 571 424 91 826 4,250 14,887 13,285<br />

16 Transportation equipment 25 150 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 9 4 13 32 4 6,180<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 26 43 160 19 4 87 7 353 187 169 87 226 848 443<br />

18 Energy and water 74 450 1,862 112 116 15 31 54 76 322 169 82 153 85 36 175<br />

19 Construction 74 450 201 386 359 142 84 343 544 1,677 740 621 900 950 644 2,194<br />

20 Trade 40,710 246,568 3,289 214,838 18,414 7,325 4,264 9,729 976 38,028 21,654 10,044 27,789 27,142 14,154 75,422<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 0 0 99 355 519 119 169 184 1,049 2,081 486 445 1,012 1,495 978 3,072<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,238 7,498 926 4,212 2,562 1,032 907 1,783 3,865 13,295 3,852 2,770 7,235 7,286 3,485 15,680<br />

23 Credit and insurance 2,847 17,247 175 72,605 2,374 757 1,211 947 2,281 3,210 1,757 928 4,168 3,561 1,648 4,975<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 990 5,999 1,162 75,162 9,373 2,030 2,097 4,975 2,395 30,027 7,878 4,158 15,010 15,065 9,918 40,797<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 322 1,949 89 1,580 619 75 63 801 141 3,739 854 218 874 1,012 857 7,912<br />

Total intermediate costs 108,821 474,951 13,691 563,789 1,549,070 58,446 35,681 34,236 19,403 124,332 60,970 26,799 88,039 95,264 56,281 238,569<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 0 91,700 1,036,700 2,332,200 1,020,555 1,020,555 274,219 555,084 955,733 398,000 1,285,100 1,046,069 907,907 767,124<br />

Imports 51,044 309,160 240,922 3,154,426 2,443,409 4,802,374 1,991,151 1,051,896 367,320 749,120 1,936,009 656,491 2,622,564 1,984,170 1,852,585 1,399,518<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -216,823 -1,313,245 227,938 2,258,088 -267,355 1,980,464 420,861 -131,034 904,881 409,585 346,648 118,772 752,888 572,544 1,502,218 1,306,838<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,668 468,860 5,504,214 3,212,754 9,115,038 3,432,567 1,941,417 1,546,420 1,713,789 3,238,390 1,173,263 4,660,552 3,602,783 4,262,710 3,473,480<br />

INPUT 183,889 929,619 482,551 6,068,003 4,761,824 9,173,484 3,468,248 1,975,653 1,565,823 1,838,121 3,299,360 1,200,062 4,748,591 3,698,047 4,318,991 3,712,049<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.13 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-FLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 59 3 8 1 2,512 41 5 1 173 29,678 0 28,756 125,456 154,211 183,889<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 356 15 50 4 15,217 249 30 5 1,047 239,779 1,708,176 174,165 -1,192,502 689,840 929,619<br />

3 Mining 1,678 4,489 840 151 0 27 0 0 54 58,169 12,593,773 12,697 -12,182,088 424,382 482,551<br />

4 Food and tobacco 9 0 0 5 15,343 2,727 0 0 662 93,643 594,018 764,786 4,615,557 5,974,361 6,068,003<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 25 0 47 48 169 1,159 25 961 262 1,505,715 249,976 71,089 2,935,044 3,256,109 4,761,824<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 75 0 0 498 0 42 101 1 237 47,308 1,082,295 3,031,805 5,012,076 9,126,176 9,173,484<br />

7 Timber and furniture 169 0 1,414 340 488 184 132 127 475 34,281 642,705 3,254,227 -462,966 3,433,966 3,468,248<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 53 795 105 807 581 648 654 21,764 1,475 68,887 48,493 64,069 1,794,203 1,906,765 1,975,653<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 13 8,987 49 137 139 9,574 28 2,245 316 66,028 4,835 244,003 1,250,956 1,499,794 1,565,823<br />

10 Chemicals 18 490 60 20 62 19 11 781 611 119,205 3,354 214,358 1,501,204 1,718,916 1,838,121<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 91 615 334 257 40 807 5 5,026 236 35,558 12,938 438,226 2,812,638 3,263,802 3,299,360<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 102 343 3,004 25 280 17 0 395 75 17,286 5,155 119,245 1,058,376 1,182,776 1,200,062<br />

13 Metal products 222 3,026 982 801 123 245 109 2,638 232 58,909 13,032 914,265 3,762,384 4,689,681 4,748,591<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 9 1,893 150 110 0 179 41 25 148 19,881 689 3,762,952 -85,476 3,678,165 3,698,047<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 71 7,021 955 903 82 5,218 127 4,507 557 57,156 83,292 480,267 3,698,277 4,261,836 4,318,991<br />

16 Transportation equipment 0 0 0 157 0 168 0 0 88 6,833 130,818 292,403 3,281,996 3,705,217 3,712,049<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 128 193 12 13 13 75 17 36 275 3,421 323,887 1,070,293 -245,777 1,148,403 1,151,824<br />

18 Energy and water 5 3,426 8 43 108 48 46 9 129 7,634 95,170 1 1,414,643 1,509,814 1,517,448<br />

19 Construction 18 31,867 2,061 457 1,150 3,187 1,837 139,712 4,003 194,601 82,693 55,624 3,685,577 3,823,894 4,018,495<br />

20 Trade 1,131 11,066 3,208 9,978 17,107 318,469 2,335 29,733 6,625 1,159,998 1,489,295 326,677 6,864,227 8,680,199 9,840,196<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 43 1,934 247 943 0 2,045 1,258 681 2,877 22,091 2,845,000 220 3,828,681 6,673,901 6,695,992<br />

22 Transport and communication 296 7,372 1,445 3,211 2,088 17,627 3,552 13,530 3,234 129,981 3,815,000 101,233 1,570,678 5,486,911 5,616,892<br />

23 Credit and insurance 209 5,489 2,002 4,208 841 3,265 8,136 28,847 8,893 182,581 13,434 10,685 5,062,284 5,086,403 5,268,984<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 828 23,824 4,353 9,405 7,775 11,317 81,992 6,174 22,488 395,192 3,177,235 135,007 1,720,164 5,032,406 5,427,597<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 34 962 103 2,411 2,662 64,309 2,591 19,729 11,873 125,779 1,895,036 42,890,497 -24,595,042 20,190,491 20,316,272<br />

Total intermediate costs 5,642 113,810 21,437 34,933 66,780 441,646 103,032 276,927 67,045 4,679,594 30,910,299 58,457,550 17,230,570 106,598,419 111,278,015<br />

Value Added 227,312 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,700 2,373,700 2,203,600 8,858,200 39,170,058<br />

Imports 508,442 477,768 2,083,733 3,320,250 3,354,331 2,367,747 1,717,673 966,282 5,231,715 45,640,100<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 410,428 277,470 -386,875 277,113 1,351,381 1,770,799 1,074,579 1,980,788 6,159,312 21,788,263<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 1,146,182 1,403,638 3,997,058 9,805,263 6,629,212 5,175,246 5,165,952 5,150,670 20,249,227 106,598,421<br />

INPUT 1,151,824 1,517,448 4,018,495 9,840,196 6,695,992 5,616,892 5,268,984 5,427,597 20,316,272 111,278,015<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.14 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-SDP (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 6 93,271 5,970 6,355 5,180 917 0 321 2,439 163 4 6 40 110<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 63,735 37 564,919 36,160 38,491 31,373 5,552 0 1,946 14,770 987 22 33 245 667<br />

3 Mining 0 0 10 0 0 0 1 0 514 1 0 40 0 0 0 0<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 171,603 0 913,571 2,471 22,504 2,512 3,361 48 24,047 969 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 443 2,680 618 5,132 1,698,378 205,448 70,404 8,041 92 2,058 57,352 3,239 11,993 3,893 5,021 15,223<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 47 283 80 0 30,027 2,277,777 34,642 2,211 41 381 5,637 28 2,418 884 1,724 1,220<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 234,813 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 26 155 1,083 44,738 6,923 15,766 20,375 312,376 239 15,285 22,270 12,757 16,137 16,811 19,129 7,306<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 1,292 9,509 3,112 4,532 14,737 2,678 44,770 8,073 2,973 7,640 5,382 3,211 1,649 4,055<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 2,813 11,795 63,809 43,332 48,534 22,036 1,512 119,421 204,639 13,642 20,488 10,177 14,495 9,827<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 178 1,081 873 35,658 22,126 261,524 103,929 10,641 595 16,178 247,032 9,282 32,602 72,526 71,466 113,477<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 73 439 5,493 39,909 991 4,679 48,003 4,481 221 29,100 9,917 161,443 35,987 5,667 28,506 17,786<br />

13 Metal products 163 990 5,232 33,449 11,006 41,860 89,503 5,688 2,686 7,006 44,156 12,204 295,584 449,319 91,056 238,477<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 217 79 0 0 1,514 186 0 87 0 875 356 47,834 1,464 7,265<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 26 160 1,369 3,328 1,704 1,616 2,793 3,137 509 2,960 10,781 2,675 25,916 101,567 537,365 89,837<br />

16 Transportation equipment 86 524 29 0 0 0 0 22 0 9 134 201 1,057 1,211 323 60,258<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

18 Energy and water 2,350 14,234 15,761 83,998 72,691 52,167 69,988 31,169 6,759 28,292 74,574 39,402 82,042 33,083 21,900 19,715<br />

19 Construction 76 462 2,970 7,908 6,121 12,929 5,454 5,503 1,340 4,058 8,930 8,331 13,228 10,326 10,822 6,827<br />

20 Trade 9,868 59,771 44,331 339,167 293,579 627,195 240,785 143,559 2,229 84,621 243,044 122,342 377,311 266,412 219,667 213,625<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 15 88 2,047 10,456 12,802 15,746 14,844 4,197 3,709 7,163 8,441 8,390 21,222 22,763 23,451 13,570<br />

22 Transport and communication 427 2,587 18,665 97,770 61,220 107,665 94,244 41,609 11,353 48,375 58,706 47,057 151,193 123,525 85,033 69,542<br />

23 Credit and insurance 10,833 65,614 9,873 161,324 158,891 272,445 288,795 58,674 21,890 30,002 82,809 47,545 237,472 147,205 107,407 59,679<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 620 3,754 11,718 88,562 109,031 124,061 91,020 54,300 4,536 53,119 69,378 38,046 149,666 113,150 123,289 93,558<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 392 2,377 1,635 41,505 13,542 8,790 4,928 16,215 443 11,431 13,160 3,653 16,274 13,681 18,210 30,799<br />

Total intermediate costs 87,645 496,131 126,152 2,586,048 2,610,554 4,144,882 1,518,371 736,553 103,486 493,934 1,182,111 539,942 1,496,354 1,443,284 1,382,262 1,072,823<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 44,508 546,749 537,142 2,332,200 1,020,555 746,475 263,787 565,516 1,186,673 398,000 1,285,100 1,095,911 858,941 766,248<br />

Imports 8,967 54,309 131,032 1,052,828 298,336 503,746 227,635 109,991 135,519 282,852 531,441 109,959 1,069,325 410,144 277,557 249,650<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -174,745 -1,058,391 180,858 1,882,383 1,315,790 2,192,659 701,683 382,633 1,063,030 495,819 399,137 152,158 897,810 748,708 1,800,228 1,623,326<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,672 356,398 3,481,960 2,151,268 5,028,605 1,949,873 1,239,099 1,462,336 1,344,187 2,117,251 660,117 3,252,235 2,254,763 2,936,726 2,639,224<br />

INPUT 162,713 950,803 482,550 6,068,008 4,761,822 9,173,487 3,468,244 1,975,652 1,565,822 1,838,121 3,299,362 1,200,059 4,748,589 3,698,047 4,318,988 3,712,047<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.14 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-SDP (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 462 1 84 7 17,331 250 13 20 1,460 134,543 0 10,501 17,670 28,171 162,713<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,797 8 509 45 104,969 1,515 80 124 8,846 893,932 35,961 63,599 -42,690 56,870 950,803<br />

3 Mining 0 2,116 0 0 1 1 0 0 4 2,688 496,676 3,843 -20,657 479,862 482,550<br />

4 Food and tobacco 11 0 0 812 1,414,560 5,554 0 0 64,858 2,639,731 2,707,642 499,741 220,894 3,428,277 6,068,008<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 3,645 0 8,568 10,135 22,356 23,459 1,234 5,577 40,774 2,205,763 893,956 1,581,925 80,181 2,556,062 4,761,822<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,771 0 0 18,635 3 764 808 31 6,108 2,385,520 1,725,000 4,643,645 419,322 6,787,967 9,173,487<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 1,631 0 6,822 0 243,266 0 3,254,227 -29,248 3,224,979 3,468,244<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 2,952 1,723 9,153 67,836 26,460 48,256 11,971 99,555 89,484 868,766 1,023,709 64,069 19,109 1,106,887 1,975,652<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 994 38,363 9,137 19,730 6,046 207,409 622 34,724 24,328 490,686 1,049,335 244,003 -218,199 1,075,139 1,565,822<br />

10 Chemicals 3,385 3,697 18,137 7,250 9,455 4,957 689 13,773 117,280 867,954 747,997 214,358 7,811 970,166 1,838,121<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 10,347 2,484 52,505 45,322 3,935 98,785 185 30,818 28,762 1,272,311 1,032,270 937,453 57,327 2,027,050 3,299,362<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 11,053 1,330 454,970 4,473 25,938 1,697 0 3,177 8,922 904,255 126,922 119,245 49,636 295,803 1,200,059<br />

13 Metal products 25,913 12,228 153,062 154,470 12,562 26,686 4,296 27,956 29,164 1,774,716 623,873 1,600,357 749,645 2,973,875 4,748,589<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 452 3,240 3,738 0 12,353 0 7,856 0 87,516 34,393 3,762,952 -186,815 3,610,530 3,698,047<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 5,548 19,593 104,266 123,725 5,466 33,791 3,269 27,262 46,930 1,155,593 1,718,042 735,655 709,698 3,163,395 4,318,988<br />

16 Transportation equipment 1 0 0 41,680 0 51,348 0 3,059 27,819 187,761 3,197,639 292,403 34,241 3,524,283 3,712,047<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 640,100 1,070,293 -558,570 1,151,823 1,151,821<br />

18 Energy and water 7,129 160,541 14,320 84,055 133,210 59,288 21,719 66,415 186,896 1,381,698 1,429,065 0 -1,293,313 135,752 1,517,451<br />

19 Construction 667 41,282 102,984 24,834 37,654 117,301 23,109 272,494 165,394 891,004 192,720 127,266 2,807,504 3,127,490 4,018,495<br />

20 Trade 39,877 13,143 145,426 501,514 534,185 375,361 28,022 167,537 247,309 5,339,880 1,957,818 2,029,848 512,648 4,500,314 9,840,192<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 2,318 3,556 17,370 72,145 0 98,658 23,128 100,681 159,614 646,374 2,845,000 307,171 2,897,452 6,049,623 6,695,995<br />

22 Transport and communication 11,927 16,855 87,533 362,184 113,821 1,224,283 103,108 183,399 209,450 3,331,531 3,815,000 342,554 -1,872,194 2,285,360 5,616,896<br />

23 Credit and insurance 30,920 27,406 381,887 882,413 110,235 421,188 406,264 267,020 1,427,260 5,715,051 82,694 347,709 -876,471 -446,068 5,268,985<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 20,941 25,236 147,385 382,590 187,567 279,130 703,188 474,081 666,488 4,014,414 600,633 127 812,422 1,413,182 5,427,594<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,630 1,572 6,404 163,613 114,078 90,149 42,316 94,503 591,284 1,302,584 3,933,855 2,146,670 12,933,171 19,013,696 20,316,275<br />

Total intermediate costs 184,288 371,586 1,716,940 2,971,206 2,879,832 3,183,814 1,374,021 1,886,884 4,148,434 38,737,536 30,910,300 24,399,614 17,230,574 72,540,488 111,278,017<br />

Value Added 270,452 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,700 2,373,700 2,203,599 8,858,200 39,170,056<br />

Imports 245,788 157,968 279,492 335,705 487,779 449,389 365,950 271,165 731,136 8,777,663<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 451,293 339,497 -278,137 325,381 1,404,884 946,993 1,155,314 1,065,946 6,578,505 24,592,762<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 967,533 1,145,865 2,301,555 6,868,986 3,816,163 2,433,082 3,894,964 3,540,710 16,167,841 72,540,481<br />

INPUT 1,151,821 1,517,451 4,018,495 9,840,192 6,695,995 5,616,896 5,268,985 5,427,594 20,316,275 111,278,017<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.15 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-SCILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 5 86,684 5,737 3,633 3,874 843 0 370 2,354 155 4 6 39 116<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 94,262 32 525,023 34,751 22,002 23,465 5,109 0 2,242 14,261 942 22 34 235 703<br />

3 Mining 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 1,204 1 0 44 0 0 0 0<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 140,713 0 949,739 2,766 7,979 2,288 3,885 113 49,008 1,235 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 309 1,869 636 4,739 1,704,725 62,280 41,156 8,340 177 3,854 66,336 3,788 13,570 5,197 5,296 26,813<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 103 622 121 0 49,941 2,168,892 46,857 3,584 86 779 9,525 48 4,222 1,619 2,970 2,341<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 234,894 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 20 122 1,176 50,617 8,885 5,644 12,401 380,192 653 39,139 31,742 17,508 22,984 27,429 24,757 16,262<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 410 3,660 1,558 390 2,560 1,129 125,570 19,572 1,661 4,188 3,217 2,514 826 7,231<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 1,284 4,868 31,427 4,019 9,434 10,849 3,764 282,387 127,693 8,485 12,383 8,455 7,541 18,716<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 67 408 667 25,487 17,634 54,242 44,852 8,602 1,126 29,369 229,138 8,795 30,310 82,889 60,504 185,706<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 44 265 5,310 35,615 1,010 1,249 23,744 4,566 520 65,551 11,780 188,891 41,733 7,875 30,041 35,885<br />

13 Metal products 78 469 4,426 26,118 9,516 9,959 43,315 5,015 5,056 12,764 44,174 12,444 294,633 542,201 83,476 392,465<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 0 16 0 0 483 0 158 423 0 196 13 46,933 0 7,094<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 17 106 1,402 3,343 1,904 517 1,649 3,463 1,169 6,531 13,573 3,349 32,579 149,610 622,143 177,433<br />

16 Transportation equipment 18 107 14 0 0 0 0 27 0 50 333 217 725 1,651 230 190,670<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

18 Energy and water 134 810 2,662 10,697 10,663 1,428 4,483 5,023 5,609 24,203 14,938 8,144 15,162 8,961 3,566 13,818<br />

19 Construction 94 570 3,801 10,561 8,699 7,722 5,444 7,644 2,864 8,327 13,315 12,546 20,382 17,390 15,893 12,984<br />

20 Trade 18,382 111,332 63,881 559,313 504,347 503,295 295,929 236,703 5,170 194,255 432,900 218,215 674,434 527,416 387,483 472,643<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 16 94 2,468 12,629 16,432 8,008 13,201 5,362 7,350 13,740 11,598 11,700 29,766 35,462 31,272 24,179<br />

22 Transport and communication 105 639 18,884 108,603 70,634 40,370 64,758 46,781 26,779 99,994 75,127 61,828 196,758 184,151 102,346 131,791<br />

23 Credit and insurance 5,190 31,436 8,270 122,448 131,464 61,982 134,574 50,171 39,267 52,383 80,142 46,955 226,493 170,786 94,574 94,876<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 633 3,834 11,746 92,720 124,434 57,702 68,431 60,347 8,808 90,838 88,650 45,868 179,904 152,225 156,710 147,557<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 466 2,825 2,029 52,188 18,030 4,863 4,658 21,407 883 22,073 18,592 5,235 23,550 21,802 25,151 55,878<br />

Total intermediate costs 87,696 496,079 129,233 2,685,068 2,754,557 3,026,176 1,082,450 869,042 236,326 1,017,853 1,289,067 659,541 1,822,844 1,994,606 1,655,053 2,015,161<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 33,423 546,326 548,650 2,332,200 1,020,555 736,748 271,530 557,773 1,189,852 398,000 1,285,100 1,110,448 850,112 760,540<br />

Imports 368,675 2,232,979 1,799,958 993,036 9,471 1,714,163 541,438 49,206 57,094 377,679 316,952 69,094 217,233 612,671 123,083 1,075,026<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -534,454 -3,237,062 -1,480,063 1,843,569 1,449,147 2,100,952 823,808 320,660 1,000,872 -115,184 503,483 73,426 1,423,420 -19,677 1,690,745 -138,687<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,670 353,318 3,382,931 2,007,268 6,147,315 2,385,801 1,106,614 1,329,496 820,268 2,010,287 540,520 2,925,753 1,703,442 2,663,940 1,696,879<br />

INPUT 162,764 950,749 482,551 6,067,999 4,761,825 9,173,491 3,468,251 1,975,656 1,565,822 1,838,121 3,299,354 1,200,061 4,748,597 3,698,048 4,318,993 3,712,040<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.15 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-SCILQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 373 2 61 5 14,484 222 14 10 1,172 120,295 0 14,975 27,494 42,469 162,764<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,258 9 366 31 87,726 1,347 82 61 7,099 838,165 90,682 90,699 -68,797 112,584 950,749<br />

3 Mining 0 4,988 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6,249 517,114 25 -40,837 476,302 482,551<br />

4 Food and tobacco 9 0 0 451 1,131,759 6,672 0 0 44,180 2,353,647 2,733,736 685,952 294,668 3,714,356 6,067,999<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 2,222 0 4,638 4,804 14,346 21,365 1,435 2,078 24,429 2,024,402 781,599 1,874,984 80,840 2,737,423 4,761,825<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 2,430 0 0 20,506 6 1,233 1,439 26 8,294 2,325,644 1,725,000 4,682,567 440,277 6,847,844 9,173,491<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 2,359 0 1,489 0 238,742 0 3,254,227 -24,720 3,229,507 3,468,251<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 2,229 4,764 5,352 37,745 22,176 46,847 19,180 30,107 66,794 874,725 883,552 175,757 41,622 1,100,931 1,975,656<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 226 123,373 1,318 2,666 1,792 69,286 513 2,409 6,261 418,050 1,138,756 244,003 -234,989 1,147,770 1,565,822<br />

10 Chemicals 771 11,647 3,168 949 2,400 1,863 467 1,273 27,654 684,308 917,411 214,358 22,040 1,153,809 1,838,121<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 4,616 4,958 19,977 14,417 1,863 70,709 179 6,997 12,765 916,277 1,204,024 1,066,061 112,991 2,383,076 3,299,354<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 6,346 3,281 214,164 1,708 16,148 1,398 0 931 4,963 703,018 115,023 287,451 94,573 497,047 1,200,061<br />

13 Metal products 12,936 24,213 66,137 52,635 6,631 21,021 4,441 9,101 14,314 1,697,538 586,492 1,315,282 1,149,281 3,051,055 4,748,597<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 2,240 0 0 0 7,171 0 668 0 65,395 18,909 3,762,952 -149,206 3,632,655 3,698,048<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 3,660 46,513 57,143 52,700 3,878 31,531 4,392 8,392 30,342 1,257,339 1,136,848 987,958 936,852 3,061,658 4,318,993<br />

16 Transportation equipment 3 0 0 7,387 5 16,088 0 222 5,363 223,110 2,314,304 567,176 607,456 3,488,936 3,712,040<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 489,172 1,070,293 -407,643 1,151,822 1,151,822<br />

18 Energy and water 473 201,384 816 4,037 9,458 7,464 4,179 2,867 12,162 373,141 2,905,417 5,742 -1,766,849 1,144,310 1,517,450<br />

19 Construction 684 88,016 93,471 20,730 40,187 158,393 36,768 215,913 166,164 968,562 117,260 96,740 2,835,931 3,049,931 4,018,495<br />

20 Trade 51,741 31,317 168,286 543,253 727,168 575,580 46,710 128,978 305,778 7,784,509 1,326,176 369,318 360,190 2,055,684 9,840,196<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 2,084 7,108 14,009 53,608 0 121,569 33,200 52,930 146,968 654,753 2,845,000 1,463 3,194,779 6,041,242 6,695,996<br />

22 Transport and communication 9,070 35,888 54,426 191,802 83,743 1,225,247 126,955 66,163 146,245 3,169,087 3,815,001 521,591 -1,888,783 2,447,809 5,616,890<br />

23 Credit and insurance 14,745 52,000 159,811 323,439 55,431 319,364 398,989 82,237 661,128 3,418,155 371,286 1,258,959 220,579 1,850,824 5,268,982<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 16,849 51,410 108,452 353,818 196,987 331,266 884,458 287,556 729,792 4,250,995 411,257 3,588,336 -2,822,988 1,176,605 5,427,604<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,556 3,153 5,498 130,216 112,883 116,291 62,633 66,294 574,667 1,352,821 4,466,282 281,370 14,215,811 18,963,463 20,316,283<br />

Total intermediate costs 135,281 696,264 977,093 1,816,907 2,529,071 3,154,286 1,626,034 966,702 2,996,537 36,718,927 30,910,301 26,418,239 17,230,572 74,559,112 111,278,040<br />

Value Added 277,000 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,699 2,373,700 2,203,601 8,858,200 39,170,057<br />

Imports 204,296 319,247 957,164 1,403,196 533,793 499,876 703,654 4,291,476 1,910,381 21,380,841<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 535,245 -146,461 -215,962 412,193 1,709,632 926,029 565,594 -2,034,175 6,551,165 14,008,215<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 1,016,541 821,186 3,041,402 8,023,289 4,166,925 2,462,604 3,642,948 4,460,902 17,319,746 74,559,113<br />

INPUT 1,151,822 1,517,450 4,018,495 9,840,196 6,695,996 5,616,890 5,268,982 5,427,604 20,316,283 111,278,040<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.16 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-WLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire)<br />

Sectors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16<br />

1 Cereals 132 0 5 82,140 5,600 5,113 4,872 590 0 232 1,670 115 3 4 29 78<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 16,103 75,469 29 497,506 33,918 30,969 29,512 3,570 0 1,403 10,116 696 17 23 179 470<br />

3 Mining 32 195 18,875 4,142 460 1,323 2,845 1,004 1,456 1,075 5,132 4,677 147,969 46,840 27,354 24,874<br />

4 Food and tobacco 12,850 142,870 0 682,111 2,233 221,205 3,219 1,706 46 15,635 540 0 0 0 0 0<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 402 2,433 430 3,975 1,358,985 142,948 60,973 4,673 60 1,323 34,900 2,063 7,996 2,483 3,263 9,644<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 53 320 65 0 28,710 1,909,716 33,961 1,542 32 292 4,138 21 1,925 666 1,365 920<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 45 272 665 34,745 5,955 12,026 12,137 174,453 157 9,438 13,993 7,259 10,546 9,344 11,972 4,250<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 5,062 30,658 2,005 23,346 9,928 13,213 17,572 4,190 91,229 14,184 6,045 11,041 10,432 4,386 2,971 6,307<br />

10 Chemicals 27,874 74,937 3,128 16,732 101,830 61,076 51,944 22,249 1,803 133,990 234,508 14,017 24,418 10,197 16,377 10,412<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 138 838 381 18,184 12,155 126,566 49,200 4,071 258 6,821 102,212 3,743 14,379 28,920 30,431 46,352<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 60 365 2,446 20,081 565 2,335 23,101 1,741 99 12,525 4,192 66,221 16,245 2,296 12,393 7,386<br />

13 Metal products 88 536 1,806 13,264 4,649 15,310 35,993 1,657 891 2,276 13,776 3,850 100,374 140,928 29,963 75,483<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 0 0 0 0 525 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 22 133 597 1,738 953 786 1,325 1,176 222 1,240 4,430 1,069 11,436 40,063 228,738 36,252<br />

16 Transportation equipment 147 888 23 0 0 0 0 49 0 22 535 307 1,024 1,709 383 93,611<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 0 2 78 211 685 324 85 176 3 139 308 376 224 414 2,345 226<br />

18 Energy and water 1,171 7,095 5,552 33,510 30,373 18,821 29,963 9,141 2,264 9,247 23,154 12,652 27,944 10,604 7,282 6,324<br />

19 Construction 33 201 857 2,650 2,172 3,842 1,965 1,266 357 1,069 2,202 2,150 3,665 2,661 2,907 1,759<br />

20 Trade 12,067 73,090 36,846 330,160 300,598 557,013 254,355 101,544 1,773 67,217 183,436 95,836 310,574 209,990 178,452 168,770<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 15 92 1,535 8,858 11,413 11,953 13,941 2,559 2,572 4,922 5,453 5,686 15,237 15,427 16,370 9,172<br />

22 Transport and communication 1,257 7,612 9,602 69,127 37,237 69,659 47,507 16,970 6,473 21,439 29,708 23,861 73,354 49,907 39,284 31,399<br />

23 Credit and insurance 11,309 68,496 7,404 135,931 141,659 206,826 271,216 35,780 15,179 20,617 53,498 32,220 170,492 99,764 74,924 40,338<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 836 5,062 10,286 89,157 117,910 114,383 94,425 40,211 3,797 43,361 54,120 30,757 129,231 90,592 102,346 74,425<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 356 2,158 1,226 35,067 12,073 6,673 4,628 9,888 307 7,855 8,502 2,475 11,684 9,272 12,725 20,788<br />

Total intermediate costs 90,054 493,720 103,841 2,102,635 2,220,061 3,532,080 1,045,264 440,206 128,978 376,322 796,568 321,092 1,089,169 776,490 802,053 669,240<br />

Value Added 240,847 1,458,753 39,951 526,970 561,479 2,332,200 1,020,555 716,747 267,387 561,916 1,198,516 398,000 1,285,100 1,072,153 889,525 759,421<br />

Imports 164,059 993,666 169,851 546,441 432,876 1,091,491 550,577 487,415 235,111 449,260 926,967 334,682 1,496,502 1,172,328 999,623 873,262<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs -329,838 -1,997,751 168,908 2,891,958 1,547,406 2,217,712 851,849 331,287 934,347 450,627 377,313 146,285 877,819 677,076 1,627,794 1,410,124<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 75,068 454,668 378,710 3,965,369 2,541,761 5,641,403 2,422,981 1,535,449 1,436,845 1,461,803 2,502,796 878,967 3,659,421 2,921,557 3,516,942 3,042,807<br />

INPUT 165,121 948,389 482,551 6,068,004 4,761,822 9,173,483 3,468,245 1,975,655 1,565,823 1,838,125 3,299,364 1,200,059 4,748,590 3,698,047 4,318,995 3,712,047<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. A.16 – 1997 25-sector Marche I-O table constructed by GRIT-WLQ (million <strong>of</strong> Lire) (continued)<br />

Sectors 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 TIS HC EXP OFD TFD OUTPUT<br />

1 Cereals 340 1 61 6 15,647 208 11 13 1,221 118,091 0 10,723 36,307 47,030 165,121<br />

2 O<strong>the</strong>r agriculture 2,057 6 371 38 94,768 1,260 69 82 7,394 806,025 159,158 64,946 -81,740 142,364 948,389<br />

3 Mining 34,972 4,889 22,328 4,884 2 500 1 16 1,411 357,256 21 74,318 50,957 125,296 482,551<br />

4 Food and tobacco 267 0 0 577 1,191,941 5,233 0 0 50,540 2,330,973 3,422,898 1,992,599 -1,678,460 3,737,037 6,068,004<br />

5 Textile products and apparel 2,339 0 5,625 7,324 16,992 18,486 913 3,381 29,289 1,720,900 970,514 1,964,140 106,272 3,040,926 4,761,822<br />

6 Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1,377 0 0 14,173 3 666 722 20 5,350 2,006,037 1,222,451 5,323,690 621,304 7,167,445 9,173,483<br />

7 Timber and furniture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 502,549 3,254,227 -288,532 3,468,244 3,468,245<br />

8 Paper, printing, publishing 2,103 1,050 5,365 51,541 24,610 24,894 10,199 32,906 71,060 530,985 786,656 507,528 150,484 1,444,668 1,975,655<br />

9 Coke and nuclear fuel 2,760 64,959 13,654 48,185 31,843 203,774 2,365 19,368 81,598 721,075 1,310,482 244,003 -709,739 844,746 1,565,823<br />

10 Chemicals 4,444 4,090 19,221 7,920 16,534 4,679 1,093 8,054 178,345 1,049,872 1,030,849 310,778 -553,376 788,251 1,838,125<br />

11 Rubber and plastic products 4,658 1,041 21,794 20,766 2,174 40,702 97 8,750 14,606 559,237 741,863 1,765,341 232,917 2,740,121 3,299,364<br />

12 Non-metal mineral products 5,114 569 192,332 1,960 14,932 739 0 979 4,648 393,324 92,384 505,328 209,025 806,737 1,200,059<br />

13 Metal products 8,717 3,962 49,843 49,733 5,184 9,495 1,699 7,955 11,225 588,657 434,220 1,763,582 1,962,132 4,159,934 4,748,590<br />

14 Machinery (except electricity) 0 0 0 0 0 2,931 0 895 0 4,351 30,398 3,762,952 -99,653 3,693,697 3,698,047<br />

15 Electrical and electronic equipment 2,507 8,181 43,006 49,647 3,105 13,974 1,751 7,594 23,987 483,932 1,257,214 1,175,563 1,402,283 3,835,060 4,318,995<br />

16 Transportation equipment 12 0 0 48,415 32 30,093 0 1,194 21,965 200,409 2,708,267 347,073 456,300 3,511,640 3,712,047<br />

17 O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 722 41 107 138 94 723 45 854 2,311 10,631 1,714,160 1,070,293 -1,643,262 1,141,191 1,151,822<br />

18 Energy and water 2,361 52,462 4,746 31,857 53,397 22,717 8,410 20,910 70,273 502,230 1,157,021 1,819 -143,622 1,015,218 1,517,448<br />

19 Construction 178 10,874 27,633 7,709 12,746 37,261 7,492 77,287 52,735 263,671 134,195 89,753 3,530,875 3,754,823 4,018,492<br />

20 Trade 32,297 10,478 118,098 461,547 526,409 346,590 25,071 121,394 223,456 4,747,061 1,985,769 1,345,128 1,762,238 5,093,135 9,840,194<br />

21 Hotels and businesses 1,601 2,446 12,188 58,661 0 82,539 18,916 61,055 127,347 489,958 2,845,000 2,581,394 779,650 6,206,044 6,696,000<br />

22 Transport and communication 7,604 6,297 47,687 127,888 56,075 400,861 35,274 47,528 100,695 1,364,305 3,815,000 1,168,180 -730,596 4,252,584 5,616,894<br />

23 Credit and insurance 21,351 18,850 267,948 708,867 93,336 351,084 332,276 178,892 1,152,294 4,510,551 78,635 382,483 297,311 758,429 5,268,983<br />

24 Real estate, renting, research, business services 17,759 20,565 123,006 394,255 202,129 269,549 706,523 361,145 679,930 3,775,760 772,049 489,577 390,212 1,651,838 5,427,596<br />

25 O<strong>the</strong>r services 1,126 1,081 4,493 133,120 96,590 75,202 34,610 67,469 472,299 1,031,667 3,738,548 4,374,784 11,171,283 19,284,615 20,316,284<br />

Total intermediate costs 156,666 211,842 979,506 2,229,211 2,458,543 1,944,160 1,187,537 1,027,741 3,383,979 28,566,958 30,910,301 34,570,202 17,230,570 82,711,073 111,278,033<br />

Value Added 288,337 648,400 2,300,200 6,207,900 1,923,500 1,036,701 2,373,700 2,203,601 8,858,200 39,170,059<br />

Imports 292,191 356,750 1,028,534 994,436 583,899 1,686,113 151,253 2,757,059 1,393,257 20,167,603<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r primary inputs 414,628 300,456 -289,748 408,647 1,730,058 949,920 1,556,493 -560,805 6,680,848 23,373,413<br />

PRIMARY INPUTS 995,156 1,305,606 3,038,986 7,610,983 4,237,457 3,672,734 4,081,446 4,399,855 16,932,305 82,711,075<br />

INPUT 1,151,822 1,517,448 4,018,492 9,840,194 6,696,000 5,616,894 5,268,983 5,427,596 20,316,284 111,278,033<br />

Note: TIS – Total intermediate sales; HC – Household consumption; EXP – Exports; OFD – O<strong>the</strong>r final demands; TFD – Total final demand.<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


APPENDIX B – Type II output-to-output<br />

multipliers according to <strong>the</strong> kind <strong>of</strong> regionalization<br />

method


Tab. B.1 – Type II output-to-output multipliers calculated for non-survey methods<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

SLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

WLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

PLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

CILQ<br />

Income Employment<br />

Cereals 2.97 2.85 2.24 1.85 1.69 1.09 2.97 2.85 2.24 2.71 2.58 2.04<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 1.70 1.63 1.28 1.76 1.61 1.04 1.70 1.63 1.28 1.58 1.50 1.19<br />

Mining 1.97 2.86 1.05 1.58 2.04 1.04 1.97 2.86 1.05 2.13 3.22 1.08<br />

Food and tobacco 4.25 6.20 1.46 1.66 2.00 1.91 4.25 6.20 1.46 4.19 6.12 1.47<br />

Textile products and apparel 2.33 2.11 18.78 1.81 1.60 61.29 2.33 2.11 18.78 2.41 2.19 21.25<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 2.21 2.15 4.97 1.81 1.67 7.30 2.21 2.15 4.97 1.94 1.86 3.93<br />

Timber and furniture 2.15 2.07 2.49 1.63 1.97 2.33 2.15 2.07 2.49 2.15 2.07 2.45<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 2.28 2.05 1.13 1.83 1.60 1.49 2.28 2.05 1.13 2.39 2.16 1.16<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 1.16 2.29 1.02 1.06 7.74 1.13 1.16 2.29 1.02 1.23 2.88 1.03<br />

Chemicals 1.98 2.21 1.03 1.68 1.62 3.29 1.98 2.21 1.03 2.16 2.45 1.05<br />

Rubber and plastic products 2.40 2.10 27.42 1.73 2.30 243.52 2.40 2.10 27.42 2.58 2.25 39.13<br />

Non-metal mineral products 2.62 2.03 6.12 2.74 1.46 30.17 2.62 2.03 6.12 2.88 2.22 8.80<br />

Metal products 2.54 2.12 4.49 1.63 2.60 14.12 2.54 2.12 4.49 2.92 2.41 7.19<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 2.38 2.08 2.10 2.13 1.56 11.46 2.38 2.08 2.10 2.86 2.48 3.08<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 2.11 2.03 1.71 1.93 1.48 3.69 2.11 2.03 1.71 2.30 2.22 2.07<br />

Transportation equipment 2.13 2.17 1.04 1.90 1.51 5.55 2.13 2.17 1.04 2.49 2.58 1.07<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 2.04 2.32 2.60 1.53 1.94 2.06 2.04 2.32 2.60 2.02 2.31 2.33<br />

Energy and water 2.28 1.99 1.08 1.94 1.37 12.93 2.28 1.99 1.08 2.64 2.27 1.13<br />

Construction 2.33 1.87 7.02 2.18 1.78 3.49 2.33 1.87 7.02 2.34 1.88 6.76<br />

Trade 1.72 1.56 706.77 1.83 1.62 293.11 1.72 1.56 706.77 1.68 1.52 634.67<br />

Hotels and businesses 2.75 3.41 2.23 2.03 2.24 2.61 2.75 3.41 2.23 2.82 3.50 2.32<br />

Transport and communication 2.35 1.74 1.09 1.97 1.44 1.18 2.35 1.74 1.09 2.42 1.78 1.10<br />

Credit and insurance 2.83 2.02 1.25 1.98 1.47 2.27 2.83 2.02 1.25 2.91 2.07 1.29<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 1.59 1.59 3.95 1.63 1.42 2.01 1.59 1.59 3.95 1.59 1.58 3.86<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 2.90 1.38 30.66 2.18 1.36 23.25 2.90 1.38 30.66 2.91 1.38 30.67<br />

Household sector 2.53 17.18 21.35 2.35 72.66 6.58 2.53 17.18 21.35 2.53 17.09 21.10<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. B.1 – Type II output-to-output multipliers calculated for non-survey methods (continued)<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

RLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

FLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

SCILQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

SDP<br />

Income Employment<br />

Cereals 2.80 2.68 2.10 2.06 1.95 1.57 2.47 2.36 1.86 1.80 1.71 1.30<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 1.62 1.55 1.21 1.55 1.48 1.18 1.60 1.53 1.21 1.58 1.50 1.14<br />

Mining 2.11 3.16 1.08 3.23 5.45 1.13 2.36 3.67 1.08 1.58 2.10 3.45<br />

Food and tobacco 4.22 6.16 1.47 5.53 8.29 1.66 4.79 7.08 1.55 1.89 2.43 2.29<br />

Textile products and apparel 2.39 2.17 20.92 3.10 2.82 28.23 2.61 2.36 22.96 1.78 1.62 1.31<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 2.03 1.96 4.25 1.82 1.74 3.52 1.97 1.90 4.03 1.80 1.73 1.80<br />

Timber and furniture 2.14 2.06 2.46 2.14 2.06 2.45 2.16 2.08 2.49 1.72 1.65 2.23<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 2.37 2.14 1.16 3.30 2.99 1.23 2.60 2.34 1.17 1.82 1.65 1.38<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 1.23 2.90 1.04 1.59 6.30 1.07 1.29 3.47 1.04 1.08 1.66 1.17<br />

Chemicals 2.14 2.43 1.05 3.83 4.75 1.14 2.59 3.04 1.07 1.63 1.76 1.12<br />

Rubber and plastic products 2.56 2.23 37.53 3.73 3.25 56.58 2.84 2.48 40.55 1.89 1.68 1.35<br />

Non-metal mineral products 2.84 2.19 8.52 4.34 3.25 12.56 3.17 2.42 8.77 2.11 1.68 1.38<br />

Metal products 2.83 2.35 6.60 4.19 3.45 8.22 3.10 2.56 6.44 2.10 1.77 1.20<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 2.84 2.47 3.12 4.51 3.93 4.38 3.09 2.69 3.01 2.04 1.79 1.29<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 2.25 2.18 1.99 3.04 2.98 2.34 2.43 2.36 2.01 1.76 1.69 1.47<br />

Transportation equipment 2.48 2.56 1.08 5.27 5.73 1.24 2.98 3.13 1.09 1.84 1.86 1.14<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 2.02 2.30 2.38 2.09 2.41 2.34 2.07 2.37 2.47 1.75 1.90 1.19<br />

Energy and water 2.67 2.29 1.14 4.76 4.13 1.26 3.16 2.71 1.16 1.68 1.54 1.04<br />

Construction 2.33 1.87 6.79 2.33 1.87 6.70 2.34 1.88 6.92 2.04 1.68 1.70<br />

Trade 1.69 1.54 653.33 1.67 1.51 621.85 1.69 1.53 659.13 1.61 1.47 1.38<br />

Hotels and businesses 2.79 3.47 2.29 2.98 3.72 2.45 2.90 3.62 2.38 1.91 2.21 1.83<br />

Transport and communication 2.39 1.77 1.10 2.79 2.02 1.12 2.53 1.85 1.11 1.96 1.50 1.45<br />

Credit and insurance 2.89 2.05 1.28 4.46 3.00 1.46 3.29 2.29 1.32 2.14 1.61 1.52<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 1.59 1.58 3.87 1.57 1.55 3.76 1.59 1.58 3.88 1.48 1.46 1.53<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 2.91 1.38 30.58 2.89 1.38 30.35 2.91 1.38 30.77 2.53 1.28 8.35<br />

Household sector 2.53 17.12 21.14 2.51 16.94 20.98 2.52 17.08 21.15 2.27 14.61 14.62<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. B.2 – Type II output-to-output multipliers calculated for hybrid methods<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

GRIT-SLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

GRIT-WLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

GRIT-PLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

GRIT-CILQ<br />

Income Employment<br />

Cereals 2.87 2.09 1.08 2.83 1.86 1.08 2.71 1.79 1.08 2.80 1.72 1.08<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 2.21 2.34 1.05 2.17 2.08 1.04 2.09 1.98 1.05 2.13 1.89 1.05<br />

Mining 1.63 2.36 5.50 1.57 1.99 4.69 1.57 2.00 5.21 1.41 1.57 3.83<br />

Food and tobacco 1.72 2.31 13.17 1.69 2.04 12.95 1.66 1.98 13.08 1.46 1.55 3.83<br />

Textile products and apparel 1.85 1.81 3.49 1.82 1.59 3.34 1.75 1.54 3.31 1.66 1.37 2.76<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1.78 1.84 3.34 1.77 1.63 3.21 1.71 1.58 3.24 1.46 1.25 2.22<br />

Timber and furniture 1.93 2.01 4.35 2.04 1.93 4.58 1.83 1.71 4.11 1.69 1.47 3.37<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 1.84 1.78 3.79 1.75 1.51 3.34 1.74 1.52 3.55 1.63 1.33 3.09<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 1.13 1.77 16.51 1.13 1.58 15.85 1.11 1.50 14.71 1.09 1.33 14.23<br />

Chemicals 1.64 1.91 16.99 1.58 1.61 14.68 1.57 1.62 15.58 1.61 1.53 14.34<br />

Rubber and plastic products 1.89 1.79 9.33 1.91 1.60 8.46 1.79 1.52 8.64 1.78 1.41 7.38<br />

Non-metal mineral products 2.14 1.83 3.94 2.05 1.57 3.53 2.00 1.56 3.67 1.97 1.44 3.58<br />

Metal products 1.98 1.84 3.75 1.94 1.60 3.40 1.87 1.57 3.50 1.83 1.44 3.42<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 2.00 1.91 5.26 1.93 1.64 4.73 1.89 1.63 4.88 2.04 1.64 5.27<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 1.75 1.81 3.73 1.68 1.54 3.35 1.66 1.54 3.48 1.64 1.43 3.39<br />

Transportation equipment 1.75 1.89 21.40 1.67 1.60 18.28 1.67 1.62 19.63 1.84 1.68 21.37<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1.57 1.86 1.34 1.55 1.63 1.29 1.50 1.58 1.31 1.39 1.33 1.23<br />

Energy and water 1.67 1.64 29.74 1.63 1.40 25.24 1.58 1.40 26.51 1.71 1.30 25.17<br />

Construction 2.05 1.82 1.38 2.07 1.66 1.37 1.92 1.55 1.34 1.81 1.37 1.33<br />

Trade 1.75 1.71 1.20 1.80 1.58 1.22 1.66 1.46 1.18 1.53 1.25 1.18<br />

Hotels and businesses 1.98 2.42 3.60 2.00 2.16 3.66 1.85 2.02 3.37 1.62 1.58 2.07<br />

Transport and communication 2.11 1.71 2.63 2.11 1.52 2.53 1.99 1.46 2.50 1.96 1.35 2.56<br />

Credit and insurance 2.12 1.73 5.65 1.96 1.45 5.18 1.99 1.47 5.20 1.92 1.34 5.49<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 1.81 1.77 1.32 1.71 1.49 1.26 1.71 1.51 1.29 1.55 1.27 1.24<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 2.20 1.51 8.08 2.15 1.33 7.78 2.04 1.29 7.24 2.00 1.21 7.77<br />

Household sector 2.29 2.81 4.26 2.35 70.95 4.66 2.29 83.27 4.21 2.30 39.68 5.50<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


Tab. B.2 – Type II output-to-output multipliers calculated for hybrid methods (continued)<br />

Sectors<br />

Output<br />

GRIT-RLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

GRIT-FLQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

GRIT-SCILQ<br />

Income Employment Output<br />

GRIT-SDP<br />

Income Employment<br />

Cereals 2.90 1.89 1.09 2.60 1.69 1.09 3.20 2.09 1.09 3.08 2.03 1.08<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r agricultural sub-sectors 2.13 2.04 1.05 1.90 1.78 1.05 2.35 2.30 1.06 2.38 2.34 1.05<br />

Mining 1.68 2.25 5.66 1.17 1.20 2.36 1.89 2.68 7.01 1.91 2.72 6.31<br />

Food and tobacco 1.73 2.11 13.03 1.35 1.42 5.30 1.92 2.45 14.67 1.90 2.43 14.62<br />

Textile products and apparel 1.83 1.62 3.44 1.40 1.19 2.23 2.03 1.82 3.98 1.99 1.78 3.61<br />

Lea<strong>the</strong>r and shoes 1.63 1.51 2.85 1.34 1.18 1.98 1.68 1.57 2.80 1.96 1.88 3.50<br />

Timber and furniture 1.89 1.77 4.28 1.35 1.18 2.23 2.09 2.00 4.67 2.43 2.36 5.34<br />

Paper, printing, publishing 1.88 1.65 3.93 1.42 1.20 2.53 2.12 1.88 4.76 2.07 1.83 4.25<br />

Coke and nuclear fuel 1.17 1.87 21.18 1.08 1.26 13.12 1.27 2.50 33.95 1.18 1.95 21.67<br />

Chemicals 1.83 1.97 20.95 1.36 1.30 12.52 2.34 2.68 33.75 1.88 2.05 20.64<br />

Rubber and plastic products 1.98 1.70 9.99 1.44 1.20 5.66 2.33 2.00 13.20 2.24 1.91 11.03<br />

Non-metal mineral products 2.24 1.73 4.16 1.54 1.20 2.56 2.64 2.02 5.29 2.50 1.91 4.42<br />

Metal products 2.06 1.74 3.93 1.46 1.20 2.43 2.36 1.99 4.79 2.23 1.88 4.04<br />

Machinery (except electricity) 2.36 2.05 6.47 1.45 1.21 3.23 2.87 2.52 8.81 2.53 2.21 6.68<br />

Electrical and electronic equipment 1.81 1.70 3.92 1.36 1.19 2.49 2.03 1.94 4.78 1.95 1.86 4.12<br />

Transportation equipment 1.98 1.98 26.13 1.41 1.28 14.13 2.58 2.68 42.16 2.07 2.09 26.46<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r manufacturing 1.54 1.63 1.33 1.25 1.19 1.16 1.63 1.78 1.36 1.75 1.96 1.39<br />

Energy and water 1.82 1.58 33.87 1.49 1.27 28.37 2.19 1.92 50.57 1.84 1.63 34.23<br />

Construction 1.99 1.60 1.36 1.49 1.18 1.23 2.23 1.80 1.43 2.69 2.16 1.55<br />

Trade 1.68 1.47 1.19 1.39 1.17 1.15 1.81 1.60 1.21 2.10 1.88 1.28<br />

Hotels and businesses 1.97 2.16 3.59 1.25 1.19 1.53 2.17 2.45 4.01 2.33 2.65 4.31<br />

Transport and communication 2.10 1.53 2.63 1.62 1.21 2.16 2.37 1.70 3.01 2.39 1.71 2.82<br />

Credit and insurance 2.08 1.53 5.57 1.59 1.20 3.85 2.26 1.66 6.35 2.19 1.60 5.81<br />

Real estate, renting, research, business services 1.75 1.54 1.30 1.45 1.23 1.23 1.83 1.62 1.32 2.15 1.92 1.41<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r services 2.13 1.33 7.75 1.77 1.15 6.91 2.26 1.39 8.42 2.40 1.46 8.87<br />

Household sector 2.41 91.08 4.53 2.07 18.99 5.76 2.57 85.50 4.82 2.56 78.87 4.74<br />

Source: Author’s elaboration


This research faces <strong>the</strong> problem <strong>of</strong> constructing regional I-O tables which still<br />

represents an important objective for numerous types <strong>of</strong> research. The main interest<br />

in <strong>the</strong> I-O approach lies in <strong>the</strong> possibility, which this approach <strong>of</strong>fers, <strong>of</strong> evaluating<br />

<strong>impact</strong>s generated by local or extra-local policy, at sub-national and disaggregated<br />

sectoral levels. Construction <strong>of</strong> regional I-O tables implies <strong>the</strong> need to collect a<br />

considerable volume <strong>of</strong> information, which, at local level, is very difficult to obtain. For<br />

this reason, starting from <strong>the</strong> 1950s, different approaches have been developed,<br />

namely: survey, non-survey and hybrid approaches. In front <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> existence <strong>of</strong><br />

numerous regionalization techniques, researchers have also worried to evaluate<br />

performances <strong>of</strong> methods, comparing survey-based tables with indirectly constructed<br />

tables. Towards this aim, many statistical measures have been employed.<br />

This research is articulated into two parts.<br />

The first one proposes a survey, from <strong>the</strong> 1960s, <strong>of</strong> regionalization methods and<br />

empirical studies carried out to analyse <strong>the</strong> validity <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong>se methods. Moreover, a<br />

review <strong>of</strong> statistical measures used to compare methods is provided.<br />

The second part is centred on an empirical <strong>analysis</strong> whose objectives are tw<strong>of</strong>old.<br />

The main objective is to evaluate policy <strong>impact</strong> <strong>sensitivity</strong> to <strong>the</strong> use <strong>of</strong> alternative<br />

approaches for deriving regional I-O tables. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>the</strong> aim is to estimate <strong>the</strong><br />

degree <strong>of</strong> similarity or difformity characterizing several regionalization methods in<br />

terms <strong>of</strong> prediction <strong>of</strong> <strong>impact</strong>. In this connection, 16 alternative methods <strong>of</strong><br />

constructing regional I-O tables are investigated. A fur<strong>the</strong>r objective is to assess <strong>the</strong><br />

<strong>impact</strong> generated by <strong>the</strong> CAP <strong>reform</strong> for <strong>the</strong> period 2000-2006 on <strong>the</strong> overall<br />

economy <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Marche region in terms <strong>of</strong> output, employment and income. Towards<br />

this aim, two models are developed and sequentially applied: an econometric model<br />

<strong>of</strong> pr<strong>of</strong>it maximization and a closed mixed-variable I-O model. Finally, <strong>impact</strong> results<br />

related to <strong>the</strong> explored regionalization methods are compared using univariate and<br />

multivariate statistical techniques.<br />

Andrea Bonfiglio is a Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics and Politics at <strong>the</strong> Department <strong>of</strong><br />

Economics <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> Marche Polytechnic University.

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