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Russia set to ratify Kyoto Accord
by Michael Fox, Law III
Having spent the better part of his
nearly five years in office consolidating
power in his own hands, using fear of terrorism
as a justification for trampling on
civil liberties, and emaciating the few
checks and balances that the Duma (the
Russian Parliament) placed on his actions,
Russian President Vladimir Putin exercised
his unfettered discretion in a rather benevolent
way [October 12th], by stating his support
for the Kyoto Accord, and saying that
he would support Russia’s ratification of
the treaty. [On October 22nd, the lower
house of the Duma ratified the Accord.]
Russia’s ratification means that the
requisite 55 percent of global emissions has
now been accounted for by the treaty’s signatories,
paving the way for the treat to
enter into force. But will the treaty actually
make any difference?
In Russia itself, at least, Kyoto will not
require any reduction in emissions. This is
because Kyoto requires its signatories to
reduce emissions levels to what they were
in 1990, which was just prior to the collapse
of communism in Eastern Europe
(and along with it the collapse of bloated,
centrally-controlled Soviet industry). As
Russia’s inefficient economy collapsed, so
did its emissions. In fact, Russia actually
has a “surplus” of emissions credits, which
it can sell to other participating countries
(such as Canada) who can in turn use these
credits against their own emissions.
In theory, this will allow overall global
emissions levels to be reduced to their
No difference noticed yet at UBC Law
1990 levels, even if some countries individually
emit less and other countries individually
emit more. Of course, as the old
adage goes, in theory, there is no difference
between theory and practice; in practice,
there is.
In order for global emissions to be reduced,
the entire globe must participate.
While signatories such as Canada and
France may be successful in reducing their
emissions to 1990 levels, non-signatories
such as China and the US will not. As the
Beastie Boys so eloquently note, “We got a
President we didn’t elect/the Kyoto treaty,
he decided to neglect.”
The US, citing the non-participation
of countries such as China as a major flaw
in the treaty, decided to exacerbate that flaw
by themselves withdrawing from the treaty.
Their criticism, however, misses the point.
As with many environmental problems,
global greenhouse gas emissions are due
almost entirely to the developed world, and
only now are we beginning to be confronted
with the long-term consequences of our past
actions. Why, asks China, should they have
to bear the burden of a problem that they
had little or nothing to do with?
The short answer is that whether or
not China started it, China is now unquestionably
a part of global greenhouse gas
emissions, and cannot escape the consequences
of its own actions. And so yes, in
the humble opinion of this author, the fact
that China is not a participant is clearly a
flaw.
Who is this person?
© Steve Wexler
Kyoto Protocol: Timeline of Development
1992: United Nations Member Governments meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and create
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
1997: Pursuant to the UNFCCC, UN Member Governments meet in Kyoto, Japan and
develop the Kyoto Protocol, which sets targets for reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions.
The treaty includes novel provisions, such as allowances for “emissions trading”
which will enable individual countries to buy and sell unused emissions “credits” on
international markets.
2001: Despite having pledged to ratify the Protocol, President George W. Bush announces
that the United States will withdraw from the treaty, claiming that Kyoto “would
cause serious harm to the US economy.” The US withdrawal throws the status of the
treaty into serious doubt, leaving Russia as the kingmaker in the treaty’s fate.
2004: As of October 5, 2004, 126 countries had either ratified, accepted, acceded or
approved Kyoto, responsible for 44.2% of global emissions. In order to enter into force,
signatories must account for 55% of global emissions.
Oct. 2004: Vladimir Putin announces his intention to ratify Kyoto; it is virtually certain
the Russian Parliament (the Duma) will follow Putin’s lead. Russia’s ratification
means that signatories will now account for 61.6% of global emissions, and the treaty
will come into force. Already, an international carbon exchange (based in Europe) has
sprung up, and along with it dozens of consulting firms, technology-start-ups and “carbon
accountants.” London is fast becoming the world’s “carbon finance capital,” and is
home to Climate Change Capital, the first merchant bank dedicated to carbon issues.
However, there is a method to Kyoto’s
madness. The point of binding only rich
countries is to encourage innovation and
the development of alternative energy
sources. Ideally, as rich countries begin to
develop alternative energy sources, the
technology can be transferred to developing
countries, who will then be able to reduce
their emissions, but without bearing
the cost of technological development.
But without the participation of the
US, the world’s prolific innovator, Kyoto
may be doomed to fail, and the past seven
years of negotiations may have all been for
naught. At this point, it seems that people
power is really the only way to avoid this.
To once more quote the Beastie Boys: “Hold
up wait up know we come correct/You
wanna change things up, well hey just get
set.”
This article was first published in Volume
1, Issue 2 of “Greenspace,” the newsletter
Environmental Law Group at UBC
Law. Michael Fox is the co-Chair of ELG
and the editor of “Greenspace. For more
info, email elg-law@interchange.ubc.ca.
Got an answer? Then, email us at contests@legaleye.ca. by Deborah Ling, Law II
Page 10 The Legal Eye November 2004