Will Pakistan Break Up? - Carnegie Endowment for International ...

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Islamabad. More than 900 Baluch and Sindhi activists have disappeared without a trace. I
urge you to read the Amnesty International report, Denying the Undeniable: Enforced
Disappearances in Pakistan, which cites chapter and verse on this massive violation of human
rights, more than the much publicized disappearances in Pinochet’s Chile.
By themselves, the Baluch are in a weak position militarily, but they are beginning to
forge alliances with Sindhi factions that could become significant. What the Baluch and
Sindhi leaders are talking about is a sovereign Baluch-Sindhi federation stretching from the
Indian border to Iran. The most obvious impediment to this dream of course is the fact that
Karachi is right in the middle of the area concerned with a multi-ethnic population. But the
Baluch and Sindhis point out that Karachi depends on gas and water pipelines crossing
through areas of the surrounding countryside under their control.
In my report I conclude that the future of Sind and Baluchistan will depend on how
relations between India and Pakistan evolve. Until now there has been a consensus in India
that a stable Pakistan is in the Indian interest. But Pakistan’s failure to act against Lashkar-e-
Taiba since the Mumbai attacks has led to some re-thinking.
As Indian anger grows, so does the view that India should support Baluch and
Sindhi separatism, either as an alternative to full-scale military retaliation against Pakistan or
as a key part of a two-front military strategy. As an alternative, stirring up the Baluch and
Sindhis would avoid the risks of a direct military encounter with Pakistan that could escalate
to the nuclear level and lead to an exodus of foreign investment. As part of a two-front
strategy, Indian support for Baluch and Sindhi insurgents would keep substantial Pakistani
forces tied down on the long Sind frontier while others face Indian forces in Kashmir, or the
Punjab, or both.
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