PCE Deflator, (Personal Consumption Expenditure ... - Morningbull
PCE Deflator, (Personal Consumption Expenditure ... - Morningbull
PCE Deflator, (Personal Consumption Expenditure ... - Morningbull
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Advance Retail Sales - United States<br />
Monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant<br />
market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer<br />
confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds<br />
of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the<br />
Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.<br />
The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of<br />
volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out<br />
positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile<br />
due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales<br />
and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on<br />
release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.<br />
The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based<br />
on a sample of stores throughout the month - returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It<br />
appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.<br />
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos<br />
The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto<br />
sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result,<br />
changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle<br />
sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a<br />
more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely.<br />
Relevance: Tends to move markets on release<br />
Release schedule : 8:30 AM (EST); monthly, midmonth and approximately two weeks following<br />
the reporting month's end<br />
Revisions schedule : Significant month to month revisions to adjust for data that was<br />
unavailable at the time of the original release. No adjustments are made for inflation.<br />
Source of report : Census Bureau, Department of Commerce<br />
Web Address : http://www.census.gov/<br />
Address of release : http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html<br />
AKA : Monthly Advanced Retail Trade Survey, MARTS, Retail Sales Less Autos