Environmental Variability and Climate Change
Environmental Variability and Climate Change
Environmental Variability and Climate Change
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3 Foreword<br />
4 Tools of the Trade<br />
- Paleo-environmental archives <strong>and</strong> proxies<br />
- A hierarchy of models<br />
- Chronologies<br />
6 Earth System Dynamics<br />
- How does the past record improve our underst<strong>and</strong>ing of how the climate system works?<br />
- The bipolar seesaw<br />
- Will the thermohaline circulation change in the future?<br />
- Rapid events<br />
- Why should societies be concerned about abrupt climate change?<br />
- Have rates of climate change predicted for the future occurred in the past?<br />
13 <strong>Climate</strong> Forcing<br />
- Orbital forcing<br />
- Solar forcing<br />
- Volcanic forcing<br />
15 Natural <strong>Environmental</strong> <strong>Variability</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong><br />
- How have the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere varied in the past?<br />
- Is climate sensitive to greenhouse gas forcing?<br />
- To what extent was the warming of the last century the result of natural processes?<br />
- Was there a Medieval Warm Period?<br />
17 Improving <strong>Climate</strong> Predictions<br />
- Can models used to predict future climate reproduce conditions we know occurred in<br />
the past?<br />
- How has El Niño activity changed over time?<br />
20 Hydrological <strong>Variability</strong><br />
- How have the frequency <strong>and</strong> persistence of droughts varied<br />
in the past?<br />
- How have rainfall patterns changed in the past?<br />
- Have there been persistent failures of the Indian monsoon?<br />
23 Ecosystem Processes<br />
- How fast have ecosystems responded to past climate change?<br />
- Can biota adjust to ongoing <strong>and</strong> projected rates of climate change?<br />
- To what extent have past ecosystem changes affected climate?<br />
25 Human Impacts<br />
- How have past climate changes affected human societies?<br />
- Will society be more vulnerable to environmental changes in the future?<br />
- Will there be technologial solutions to the consequences of future climate change?<br />
- How can ecosystem responses to past climate variations help us to anticipate<br />
responses to future changes?<br />
28 About PAGES<br />
- Integrating international paleoclimate research<br />
- Fostering development of paleoclimate data archives<br />
- Encouraging North-South research partnerships<br />
30 PAGES Products<br />
- Access to paleo data <strong>and</strong> information<br />
31 Further Reading<br />
IGBP SCIENCE No. 3 Contents<br />
PAGES IGBP SCIENCE No. 3 1
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