Disrupting Escalation Of Terror In Russia To Prevent - Belfer Center ...

V. Conclusions and Recommendations
As demonstrated in this paper, the threat of catastrophic terrorism in Russia is becoming
increasingly real and imminent. It is a direct result of the existence of violent political actors and
of the expansion of their organizational and operational capabilities, coupled with increasing
availability of the means for catastrophic terrorist attacks (ranging from WMD and nuclear,
biological, and chemical arsenals to potentially dangerous industrial facilities).
We argue that the Russian authorities have insufficient resources at their disposal to
harden all of the potential targets, such as research reactors in cities and key industrial facilities.
If the authorities do boost security at these facilities, given the creativity that terrorist groups
have displayed, the latter would still be able to identify and select targets in the sprawling urban
infrastructure that, if skillfully sabotaged, could cause massive casualties and damage.
We believe that a reorientation of security policy toward preventing investigation remains
the only proactive approach that promises to decrease the threat of a catastrophic terrorist attack.
This effort will require not only reforming the country’s security apparatus, but also establishing
effective public oversight over its work and boosting intelligence data exchange and other forms
of cooperation between Russian law enforcement agents and their foreign counterparts.
Therefore, we recommend that the president establish a non-partisan commission that
would bring together security, law enforcement and public administration officials, and
independent experts to evaluate Russia’s intelligence and law enforcement community. The
panel needs to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of these agencies’ structure, budgets, the
skills of their leaders and other personnel, their interaction with the community, and their overall
performance to determine whether these agencies are adequately financed and manned,
empowered, fine-tuned and focused on countering terrorism. The panel should also look into
other countries’ experiences in fighting terrorism and follow best practices.
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