Disrupting Escalation Of Terror In Russia To Prevent - Belfer Center ...

This report also identifies other actors who can either assist the ideologically driven
extremists in terrorist attacks of catastrophic proportions in Russia, or can be used unknowingly
in preparation and execution of such attacks. These actors include apocalyptic and messianic
sects and extremist secular parties. The latter have displayed preparedness for political violence,
and the former have demonstrated their ability to disperse into decentralized networks of cells,
often remaining below the radar of law enforcement and security agencies. We argue that not
only can members of religious sects and fringe political parties be recruited or used unknowingly
to assist in acts of terror, but also that increasing pressure on these sects can prompt their
messianic leaders to order their subservient followers to try to stage an apocalypse through
catastrophic terror acts. Likewise, we contend that the corruption and ideological conversion of
law enforcement and security personnel multiply capabilities of extremist groups as they prepare
and carry out terrorist attacks. The unrestricted expansion of the anti-terrorist powers of the law
enforcement and security agencies is fraught with abuses in the absence of oversight, and this
expansion will backfire as indiscriminate repressions generate popular resentment. Such
resentment considerably eases the work of terrorist organizations’ recruiters.
Finally, this paper concludes with the recommendation that Russian authorities identify
potential terrorists and terrorist networks, analyze their capabilities and motivations, and then
proceed to dismantle those which pose the gravest threat, while keeping remaining agents of
terror on the run. Efforts to keep agents of terror on the run should be focused and thoroughly
regulated to prevent indiscriminate abuses that are not only illegitimate, but also
counterproductive.
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