Forward and Spot Prices: Testing the Expectations Hypothesis in the ...

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prices. Coordination of prices per se is consistent with standard collusion motives, given in particular that these well-known châteaux have a monopoly on famous names of Bordeaux wines. Whether avoiding competition between these famous names in order to protect reputation is truly sufficiently valuable to induce the setting of a common low forward price remains somewhat of a puzzle, which should be of interest for future research. 20
References Anderson, R.W. (ed.) (1984). The Industrial Organization of Futures Markets. Lexing- ton, Massachusetts: D.C. Health and Company. Chang, E. C. (1985). “Returns to speculators and the theory of normal backwardation.” Journal of Finance, Vol. 40 (1985), pp. 193-208. Combris, P., Lecoq, S. and Visser, M. (1997). “Estimation of a hedonic price equa- tion for Bordeaux wine: Does quality matter?” Economic Journal , Vol. 107, pp. 390- 402. Duffie, D. (1989). Futures Markets. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall. Hadj Ali, H. and Nauges, C. (2003). “Vente en primeur et investissement: Une etude sur les grands crus de Bordeaux.” Economie et Prevision, No. 159, pp. 93-103. (2006). “The pricing of experience goods: The case of en primeur wine.” Amer- ican Journal of Agricultural Economics, forthcoming. Houthakker, H. S. (1957). “Can speculators forecast prices?” Review of Economics and Statistics , Vol. 39, pp. 143-151. Keynes, J. M. (1930). A Treatise on Money. London: Macmillan. Mahenc, P. and Meunier, V. (2006). “Early sales of Bordeaux grands crus.” Journal of Wine Economics, forthcoming. 21
Page 1 and 2: Forward and Spot Prices: Testing th
Page 3 and 4: the introduction of the Winefex con
Page 5 and 6: 2 The relation between forward and
Page 7 and 8: where ft denotes the en primeur pri
Page 9 and 10: in one of 6 categories, from First
Page 11 and 12: 4 Empirical results In our empirica
Page 13 and 14: showing a positive effect on health
Page 15 and 16: Aik = 1 if wine i is produced in ar
Page 17 and 18: time, such as rank and appellation,
Page 19: slope from the previous table. Poin
Page 23 and 24: Forward price First spot price Spot
Page 25 and 26: Price (FFR/bottle) 300 250 200 150
Page 27 and 28: Table 4: Regression of first (log)
Page 29 and 30: Table 5: Regression of First (log)
Page 31: Table 7: Analysis of predicted fixe

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