Managing Project Risk

Managing 

Project Risk 

DHY01 0807

© Copyright ESI International 

August 2007 

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ESI International 

Arlington, VA USA

Notes 

Managing Project Risk 


© ESI August 2007 dhy01-01.ppt 

1-1

Notes 


Course Objectives 

By the end of this course, you will be able to— 

Identify risks using various methods 

Assess the potential impact of risk factors 

Prioritize risks to determine the most important 

Develop effective risk response strategies 

Control risk during project execution using proven 

tools and techniques 

Use a practical 8-step process to manage project 

risk 

Integrate risk management into the overall project 

management process 


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Notes 


What Is a Project? 

“[A] temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique 

product, service, or result”* 

—PMBOK® Guide, p. 5 

Project 

A 

*Source: Project Management Institute. A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge. 3d ed. 

Newtown Square, Pa.: Project Management Institute, 2004. 

“PMBOK” is a trademark of the Project Management Institute, Inc., which is registered in the United States 

and other nations. 


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C 

Ongoing Business Operation 


D 

Program X 


B 

Program Y 


E 

Cancelled

Notes 


Project Management 

[T]he application of knowledge, skills, tools and 

techniques to project activities to meet project 

requirements 

[A]ccomplished through the application and 

integration of the project management processes of 

initiating, planning, executing, monitoring and 

controlling, and closing 


Sound project management helps ensure success. 


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Notes 


Project Life Cycle 

Projects are usually divided into phases 

Collectively, these phases make up the project life 

cycle 

I 

Initiation 

P 

Planning 

I 

Implementation 

C 

Closeout 


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Notes 


Project Management Process Groups 

The PMBOK® Guide’s five project process groups: Initiating, 

Planning, Executing, Monitoring and Controlling, and Closing 

Initiating 

Processes 

Monitoring and 

Controlling Processes 

Planning Process 

Executing Processes 

Initiating 

Processes Closing 

Processes 





Source: PMBOK® Guide, p. 69 


Process 

Groups 

Life Cycle 

Phase Phase Phase Phase 

Initiating 


Processes 





Initiating 


Processes 



Initiating 

Processes 






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Closing 

Processes 


1-7 



Closing 

Processes

Notes 


Needs 

The Right Start 

Goals and 

Outcomes 

Becoming 

more 

specific 

Specific 

Objectives 

Functional 

Requirements 

Technical Requirements 


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Notes 


Formulating Good Objectives 

Objective 

An understanding between someone who needs 

something and someone who can provide it 

Exists at all levels (corporate, project, work team, 

specific task) 

Uses the SMART model 

S = Specific 

M = Measurable 

A = Agreed-upon 

R = Realistic 

T = Time-based 


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Notes 


Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) 

The WBS— 

[Is a] deliverable-oriented hierarchical 

decomposition of the work to be executed by the 

project team to accomplish the project objectives 

and create the required deliverables 

[O]rganizes and defines the total scope of the 

project 

[Subdivides the project work into smaller, more 

manageable pieces of work, with] each descending 

level [of the WBS] represent[ing] an increasingly 

detailed definition of the project work 



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Notes 


Organizing the WBS 

Define the project— 

Scope 

Tasks 

Work packages 

Technical baseline 

Organize the WBS to allow— 

For realistic estimating 

Assignment to a single organizational unit or 

for exclusive responsibility 

Use tools consistent with your comfort level and 

project needs 


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Notes 


WBS Review 

The WBS should— 

Be consistent 

Be task oriented and start with a verb, or be 

deliverable oriented and start with a noun 

Be decomposed to your level of control 

Ensure that each work package accomplishes a 

discrete work element 

Make work packages SMART 


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Notes 


Key Definitions 

Project risk 

“An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, 

has a positive or a negative effect on at least one 

project objective…” 

Risk management 

“…includes the processes concerned with 

conducting risk management planning, 

identification, analysis, responses, and monitoring 

and control on a project…” 

Includes “increas[ing] the probability and impact of 

positive events, and decreas[ing] the probability 

and impact of events adverse to the project” 

Source: PMBOK ® Guide, pp. 237–238 


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Notes 


Probability 

of 

occurrence 

Dual Nature of Risk 

Threat Opportunity 

Consequence 

of 

failure 

Probability 

of 

success 

Benefit 

of 

success 


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Notes 


Uncertainty 

Unknown–Unknowns 

Known–Unknowns 

Known–Knowns 

Known risks: Risks that were identified by the 

project team 

Unknown risks: Risks that were not identified 


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Notes 


Elements of Risk 

A definable event 

Probability of occurrence 

Impact (consequence) of occurrence 


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Notes 


Risk Is a Function of Its Elements 

Expected value = (probability of occurrence) × (impact of occurrence) 

Probability 

of 

Occurrence 

Low 

High 

Low 

Risk from snow in Maine 

Impact of Occurrence 

Risk from snow in Georgia 


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High

Notes 


Benefits of Risk Management 

Minimize management by crisis 

Encourage proactive management 

Minimize surprises and problems 

Gain competitive advantage 

Decrease overall probability of project variances 

Increase probability of project success 

Increase profitability 

Focus on building the right product the first time 

Prevent problems from occurring, or if they occur, 

from escalating 


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Notes 


Responsibilities in Risk Management 

Project manager 

Initiate and lead the risk 


Provide direction to the 

project team on the risk 


and tools 

Project team 

Understand and follow 

the risk management 

process 

Execute risk 

management 

strategies 

Report status on the risk 



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Notes 


Risk Management—A Full Project Life- 

Cycle Responsibility 

Initiate Plan 

Preliminary 

project plan 

Project Life Cycle 

Risk Planning Processes 

Final 

project plan 

Implement 

Execute Control 

Project Project 

replanning replanning 

Risk assessment and response processes are performed— 

At regular intervals throughout the project life cycle 

Every time a new baseline or plan is established 

At major milestones or decision check points 

Risk Monitoring and Control Processes 

Risk monitoring and control processes are performed— 

Continuously throughout the project life cycle 

During project status and reporting updates 

Closeout 


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Notes 


Risk Management Process 

Inputs 

Requirements 

People 

Development process 

Management 

Schedule 

Budget 

Quality 

Assumptions 

Constraints 

Testing 

Expectations 

Deployment 

Security 

Training 

Tools 

and 

Techniques Outputs 

Risk 

Management 

Prioritized risks 

(Risk Listing) 

Risk response plan 

Project plan updates 


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Notes 


Risk Monitoring 

and Control* 

ESI’s Risk Management Model 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 

*PMI ® Project Risk Management Processes 

Source: PMBOK ® Guide, p. 239 


Management 

Planning 

Document and 

Communicate 

Plan 

Identify 

Analyze 

Prioritize 

Risk Management Planning* 

Risk Identification* 

Qualitative Risk Analysis* and 

Quantitative Risk Analysis* 

Risk Response Planning* 


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Notes 


Step 1: Risk Management Planning 

Risk management 

planning is the— 

Preliminary planning 

for addressing risk 

Initial development of 

a framework to be 

carried out during the 

project 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


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Plan

Notes 


Risk Management Planning Outputs 

Outputs include the following: 

Methodology 

Roles and responsibilities 

Budgeting 

Timing 

Risk categories 

Definitions of risk probability and impact 

Revised stakeholders’ tolerances 

Reporting formats 

Tracking 



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Notes 


Step 2: Identify Risks 

Risk identification is— 

A structured and 

consistent approach to 

the identification of 

potential risk events 

A clear and specific 

description of the risk 

event 

A comprehensive list of 

risk events 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


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Plan

Notes 


Risk Identification 

Inputs Tools 

Work breakdown structure (WBS) 

Contractual requirements (statement of 

work) 

Cost and schedule estimates 

Staffing plan 

Lessons learned files 

Scope statement 

Product or deliverables description 

Assumptions and constraints 

*Source: PMBOK ® Guide, pp. 247–248 

Documentation reviews* 

Risk identification techniques 

Checklist, questionnaires, and templates 

Assumption analysis* 

Diagramming techniques* 


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Notes 


Risk Identification Guidelines 

Ensure that risk events are specific and fully 

defined 

Use the WBS as a basis for risk identification 

Develop as comprehensive a list of risks as possible 

Perform risk identification tasks as a team or as 

groups of team members 

Focus on identifying all the risks; don’t try to 

analyze at this point 


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Notes 


Outputs of Risk Identification 

A list of categorized risk events 

A documented source for each risk 

Potential risk indicators (triggers) 


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Notes 


Exercise 1 

Identify 20 Threats Associated 

with Your Project 


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Notes 


Step 3: Analyze Risks 

Risk analysis is— 

The systematic 

process of estimating 

probability of 

occurrence and 

magnitude of impact 

for each risk event 

from Step 2 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


1-30 

Plan

Notes 


Risk Analysis 

Inputs Tools 

Categorized list of identified risks 

WBS 

Contractual requirements (statement of work) 

Cost and schedule estimates 

Lessons learned files 

Staffing plan 

Other project-related plans 

Rating system guidelines 

Source: PMBOK® Guide, p. 239 

Data-gathering and Representation 

Techniques 

Interviewing 

Probability distributions 

Expert judgment 

Quantitative Risk Analysis and 

Modeling Techniques 

Sensitivity analysis 

Expected monetary value 

analysis 

Decision tree analysis 

Modeling and simulation 

PERT 


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Notes 


Presenting Risk 

Risk information is typically expressed in 1 of 3 forms: 

Qualitative: Categorizes the risk using a rating 

system of adjectives or colors to rank probability 

and/or impact 

Quantitative: Quantifies risk using a percentage to 

indicate probability of occurrence and a dollar 

value to indicate impact 

Descriptive: Uses text to explain the risk in some 

depth, including what might happen, why, and 

ideas for controlling it; used when neither 

qualitative or quantitative are available 


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Notes 


Comparison of Approaches 

Qualitative Quantitative Descriptive 

Fast and easy to 

administer and 

understand 

Difficult to enforce 

uniformly across 

organization and 

projects 

Requires definitions, 

rules, standards, and 

processes 

Preferred methodology, often 

mandated by management 

More time-consuming; 

requires estimation 

Misleading in that numbers 

may give appearance of 

precision and specificity, 

unless the precision of the 

estimate is given 

Difficult if team resists 

deriving the numbers 

Easier to forecast 

Able to use trends 

Substantially more valuable in 

developing risk response 

strategies and reserves 

Difficult to quantify 

Usually based on 

experience 

Used when 

quantitative and/or 

qualitative are not 

readily apparent or 

available 


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Notes 


Probability Analysis 

Purpose 

To understand the likelihood of the occurrence 

of a risk event 

Sources of probability data 

Theoretical distributions 

Subjective judgment 

Simulations 

Historical data 


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Notes 


Impact Analysis 

Purpose: Understand how the project is affected if 

a risk event occurs 

Project cost 

Project schedule 

Sources of impact data 

Historical data 

Estimates 


Simulations 

Impact assessment is basically an estimation 

process 


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Notes 


Project Cost Impacts 

Each risk event must be analyzed to assess 

potential impacts to project costs resulting from 

such factors as— 

Level of effort 

Labor rates 

Task duration 

Direct materials 

Equipment and tools 


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Notes 


Project Schedule Impacts 

Each risk event must be analyzed to assess 

potential impacts to the project schedule resulting 

from such factors as— 

Resource shortages 

Duration expansions 

Other delays 

The network diagram must be analyzed to assess 

the impacts due to— 

Path convergence (parallel activities) 

Dependent activities 


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1-37

Notes 


Start 

Analyzing Schedule Risks 

A 

B 

G 

C D 

E F End 


1-38 


1-38

Notes 


Tools and Techniques for Risk Analysis 


Expected value 

Decision trees 

Statistical sums 

Program Evaluation and Review Technique 

(PERT) 

Computer simulation 

Monte Carlo 


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Notes 


Exercise 2 

Analyze the 20 Risks You 

Identified in Exercise 1 


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Notes 


Step 4: Prioritize Risks 

Risk prioritization is the 

process of ranking 

identified risks 

The project team must 

decide which risks will 

be addressed, based on 

the premise that there 

never will be enough 

time and resources to 

respond to all risks 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


1-41 

Plan

Notes 


Risk Prioritization 

Inputs Tools 

List of analyzed risks 

Prioritization structure 

Qualitative assessment 

Quantitative assessment 

Comparative risk ranking 


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Notes 


Risk Prioritization Guidelines 

Rank analyzed risks highest to lowest, based on 

Step 3, “Analyze” 

Prioritize threats and opportunities separately 

Prioritize risks as a team 

Use quantitative rankings when possible, and use 

qualitative ranking if necessary 

Do not plan risk response strategies at this time 


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1-43

Notes 


Exercise 3 

Prioritize Your Top-5 Risks from 

Highest to Lowest 


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Notes 


Step 5: Risk Response Planning 

Risk response planning 

involves— 

Creating risk response 

strategies separately for 

both threats and 

opportunities 

Evaluating and selecting 

a primary response 

Incorporating responses 

into the risk and project 

plans 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


1-45 

Plan

Notes 


Risk Response Planning Process 

Inputs Tools 

Prioritized risk listing 

Opportunities to pursue, threats to respond to 

Opportunities to accept, threats to accept 

Project plan 

Specific tools 

Risk response development worksheet 

Comparative risk ranking (CRR) 

Risk Response Analysis Matrix 

Idea-generation tools 

Group techniques 

Analogy comparisons 

Decision-making tools 

Decision trees 

Life-cycle cost analysis 

Financial measures 

Probability functions 


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Notes 


Response Strategies for Threats 

Accept (accepting the consequences) 

Mitigate (reducing the expected value of a threat) 

Minimizing the probability of the threat event 

Minimizing the impact of the threat event 

Transfer (shifting some or all of the threat to 

another) 

Avoid (eliminating a specific threat, usually by 

eliminating the cause) 



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Notes 


Response Strategies for Opportunities 

Accept: Active or passive 

Enhance 

Maximize the probability of the opportunity 

event 

Maximize the impact of the opportunity event 

Exploit (ensure opportunity is realized) 

Share (allocate all or part of the ownership to third 

party) 



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Notes 


Risk Response Escalation 

If appropriate risk response strategies for severe 

threats or significant opportunities cannot be 

developed— 

The project manager is responsible for 

escalating to senior management 


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Notes 


Exercise 4 

Conduct a Threat Response for 

Your Top-5 Risks You Identified 

in Exercise 3 


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Notes 


Definition of Reserves 

Reserves: “A provision in the project management 

plan to mitigate cost and/or schedule risk” 

Management reserves: A separately planned 

quantity used to allow for future situations that are 

impossible to predict, “unknown unknowns” 

Contingency reserves: “The amount of funds, 

budget, or time needed above the estimate to 

reduce the risk of overruns of project objectives to 

a level acceptable to the organization,” “known 

unknowns” 

Reserves are intended only for “in scope” risks 

Source: PMBOK ® Guide, pp. 372, 169, 355 


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Notes 


Update Risk Management Plan 

Represents the final output of all the risk response 

work 

Contains results of the preceding steps of risk 

identification, analysis, and prioritization 

Includes how contingency plans will be 

implemented and executed 

Includes how reserves will be allocated 

Provides structure for future risk management 

updates 

Provides a good basis for lessons learned 


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Notes 


Risk Monitoring and Control 

“[T]he process of identifying, analyzing, and planning for 

newly arising risks, keeping track of the identified risks and 

those on the watchlist, reanalyzing existing risks…and 

reviewing the execution of risk responses while evaluating 

their effectiveness”* 

Integrated with project plan, execution, and control 

processes 

Related to the accomplishment of project objectives 

Performed continuously during the project 

Composed of 3 steps 

Execute the risk management plan (RMP) 

Evaluate the RMP 

Update documentation in the RMP 

*Source: PMBOK® Guide, p. 264 


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Notes 



management 

plan 

Risk Monitoring and Control Overview 

Risk monitoring and 

control 

Execute 

Evaluate 

Document 

Updated 

risk 

response 

development 

Updated 

risk 

management 

plan 

Planned 

responses, 

evaluations, 

additional 

responses 

Project execution 

and 

control processes 

Updated 

prioritized 

risk list Risk 

reassessment 

Progress, 

deviations, 

variances 


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Notes 


Step 6: Execute Risk Strategy 

Risk executing involves— 

Implementing risk 

response strategies in 

the project plan 

Monitoring and reacting 

to risk triggers, 

symptoms, indicators, 

and residual risks 

Communicating plan 

status to project 

stakeholders 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


1-55 

Plan

Notes 


Execute Risk Strategies 

Inputs Tools 

Project plan 

Risk management plan 

Risk list 

Approved change 

requests 

Work performance 

information 

Performance requests 

Technical performance measurement 

Status reports and meetings 

Early warning system 


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Notes 


Risk Execution Terms 

Problem—A negative risk event, either known or 

unknown, that materializes 

Windfall—A positive risk event, either known or 

unknown, that materializes 

Workaround—A response, not defined in advance, to a 

negative risk event that has materialized 

Corrective action—Performing the response to a 

negative risk event, either planned or unplanned, 

when the threat materializes 


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Notes 


Establish an Early Warning System 

Establish an early warning system to detect deviations 

from plan that may be or may cause risk triggers. 

Exposure increases as cost and schedule variances 

increase 

Examples of early warning include— 

Cost variance 

Schedule variance 

Changes in forecasted project end date 

Changes in float 

Changes in stakeholder attitude 

Emergence of additional critical paths 


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Notes 


Step 7: Evaluate Results 

Evaluating risk response results 

involves— 

Monitoring the 

effectiveness of risk 

response strategies 

Evaluating corrective 

actions taken 

Reanalyzing existing risks 

Reassessing the risk 

environment 

Evaluating project 

assumption validity 

Identifying new risks 

Adjusting the plan 

accordingly 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


1-59 

Analyze 

Prioritize 


1-59 

Plan

Notes 


Risk Evaluation 

Inputs Tools 

Risk management plan 

and project plan 

Cost and schedule 

performance 

All relevant event 

information 

Corrective actions 

Change requests 

Risk reassessment 

Risk audits 

Variance and trend analysis 

Assumptions analysis 

Technical performance measurement 

Reserve and contingency analysis 

Status meetings 


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Notes 


Evaluation Guidelines 

Identify opportunities to refine the risk 

management plan 

Identify any additional action required 

Reassess risks and response strategies 

Determine whether the consequences of the 

strategy were the same as envisioned 


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Notes 


Step 8: Risk Management Plan 

Documentation 

Risk updating involves— 

Recording outcomes of 

risk reassessments 

Closing out risks no 

longer applicable 

Documenting changes 

to probability and 

impact matrixes and the 

risk breakdown 

structure (RBS) 

Creating lessons learned 

Revising and reissuing 

the project management 

plan 

Document 

Evaluate 

Execute 


Management 

Planning 

Document 

and 

Communicate 

Identify 


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Analyze 

Prioritize 


1-62 

Plan

Notes 


Update Risk Documentation 

Inputs Tools 

Risk identification and analysis data 

Risk management results 

Project results 

Assumptions and impressions 

Interpretations and analysis 

Documentation tools 

Simple reporting format 

Routine project reports 

ESI risk tools 


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Notes 


Benefits of Updating the Risk Management 

Plan 

Provides a valuable historical reference for future 

projects (lessons learned) 

Provides a project chronology of events for audit 

and other reasons 

Provides a communications mechanism 

The Risk Management Plan should be updated by the 

project team members. 


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Notes 


Risk—The Final Steps During Project 

Closeout 

Risk response control and risk management conclude 

with— 

Final risk assessment 

Cost, schedule, and performance 

Goal achievement assessment 

Determine whether the customer is satisfied 

Evaluation for lessons learned 

Identify implications for the future 


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Notes 


Workshop Review 

By now you should be able to— 

Define risk and risk management 

Identify risks using various methods 

Assess the potential impact of risk factors 

Prioritize risks to determine the most important 

Develop effective risk response strategies 

Control risk during project execution using proven 

tools and techniques 

Use a practical 8-step process to manage project 

risk 

Integrate Risk Management into the overall Project 

Management process 


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Notes 


Bibliography and Suggested Reading 

Project Management Institute. A Guide to the 

Project Management Body of Knowledge. 

Newtown Square, Pa.: Project Management 

Institute, 2004. 

Ward, LeRoy, ed. Project Management Terms: A 

Working Glossary. Arlington, Va.: ESI International, 

2000. 


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Notes 


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