internationalisation in science in the prism of bibliometric indicators

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There is a slight and regular drive toward reduction of concentration, both on publications (fig.3) and citations. The slow contraction of mainstream, especially North-America, is mostly captured by a class of emerging countries, especially in Asia, with the spectacular case of China for example, rather than by periphery. SHARE % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DISTRIBUTION OF PUBLICATIONS BY AREA 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR 1997 1998 1999 2000 Periph E-Afr E-LatAm E-Eur E-AsiaO M-AsiaO M-Eur M-NorAm Fig.3. Distribution of publications by geopolitical area, reflected in ISI database Source: ISI data, processing OST and INRA M-prefix stands for mainstream, E- for emerging. AsiaO mainstream comprises Japan, Australia, New-Zealand. E-LatAm : Argentina, Brasil, Chile and Mexico. M-Eur: EU and north-western Europe.E-Afr: South Africa. E-AsiaO is the great winner of the rearrangements. M-Eur is also expanding, US and Canada are on a down-trend. Figures may be sensitive to artefacts in the coverage of the ISI database. 2. Convergence in per capita publications (OECD countries) Per capita output data yield a complementary view. Using demographic series available for OECD, we observed changes in per capita output, which can be held as a convenient basis for assessing convergences. Publication output growth rate (2000-1998 vs. 1991-1993) decreases with level of output, as shown in Fig.4 that suggests catch-up processes for smaller science producers. This is also true for the EU subgroup. Korea, Turkey, Portugal, Mexico, Greece, Poland have enjoyed important relative growth. In medium-size countries, Spain and Italy are on remarkable up-trend.
log growth (92--99) smoothed 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 y = -0,0009x + 1,972 R 2 = 0,6027 GROWTH vs OUTPUT - OECD not represented: USA , Canada, Tchek R & Slovaquia 0,00 0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 1000,00 1200,00 publication output 92 smoothed trend on unweighted data Fig.4. Growth vs. Output Source: ISI data, processing OST and INRA World growth rate of publications cannot be interpreted as such, since it reflects the ISI database coverage policy. Only the country comparative trend should be considered, with respects to biases studied in literature. But the pace of catch-up is slow. If the coefficient of variation is decreasing, standard deviation among countries remains practically stable. Given the skew distributions, weighting by country size (output) does not allow to record a clear move. The hierarchy of per capita scientific output in OECD, with Nordic countries, Switzerland, and the US ahead, is not likely to be deeply altered in a midterm future. Interchanges in ranks of p.c. output are rare (Kendall tau>0.87 for OECD, >0.88 for EU15). Evolution is similar in the EU15 sub-group: same relation between growth rates and output, evidence of decreasing non-weighted CV but imperceptible down-trend of weighted indicators. These results tend to confirm our earlier observations (1999b). These data on p.c. output tend to support the hypothesis of a slow move towards evenness. Again results on citation data confirm the slight progress in the reduction of inequalities. 3. Convergence in thematic specialization The third aspect of homogeneity trend we consider here is the convergence of scientific specialisation. If internationalisation of output is assimilated to homogenisation at the world level, its empirical measure is by and large a reduction of discrepancies among countries, including in their specialisation patterns. Scientific specialisation is a complex phenomenon, linked to internal dynamic factors and public policy choices combined with agglomeration and learning processes. In some cases, comparative advantages in terms of
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