Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
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Predicted Value<br />
We estimate the value of born baby´s <strong>in</strong> the year<br />
2008 by extrapolation trend function for t = 19 :<br />
)<br />
Y = 860988,43 − 10405, 27*19 = 663288,34<br />
The real number of born baby´s <strong>in</strong> Germany <strong>in</strong> the year 2008 is<br />
674728 .<br />
The ex post error of estimation is equal to :<br />
674728 – 663288,34 = 11439,7<br />
This error is less than estimated from the regression model .<br />
( S u = 24085,5 )
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