Demand Trends_2010TerasenLTRP_May27 - FortisBC
Demand Trends_2010TerasenLTRP_May27 - FortisBC
Demand Trends_2010TerasenLTRP_May27 - FortisBC
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D<strong>Demand</strong> d FForecast t<br />
May 27, 2010 Resource Planning Workshop<br />
Arvind Ramakrishnan<br />
Business Development Analyst<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.
<strong>Demand</strong> Forecast Key y Messages g<br />
• <strong>Demand</strong> forecasting forms a key input into the<br />
long range planning.<br />
• CContinue ti tto fforecast t natural t l gas demand. d d<br />
– <strong>Demand</strong> expected to remain level<br />
• Need to forecast demand for a broad range of<br />
energy gy solutions.<br />
– Developing new approaches<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 2
Future of <strong>Demand</strong> Forecasting<br />
Traditional<br />
Natural Gas<br />
Bio Gas<br />
Energy<br />
efficiency ffi i &<br />
conservation<br />
Terasen energy<br />
products and<br />
services<br />
Transportation<br />
Alternative<br />
energy<br />
solutions<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 3
Natural Gas <strong>Demand</strong> Drivers<br />
Lower <strong>Demand</strong> Reference Greater <strong>Demand</strong><br />
Population growth/Economy<br />
Efficient appliances<br />
Housing Type<br />
Alternative Energy<br />
High g carbon fuel switchingg<br />
Competitiveness<br />
Policies/Perception/Building<br />
codes d and d standards<br />
t d d<br />
Transportation<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 4
Annual Gas <strong>Demand</strong> -<br />
Current Methodology gy<br />
Residential and<br />
CCommercial i l D<strong>Demand</strong> d<br />
Total number of<br />
customers average<br />
use rate<br />
Total demand<br />
Traditional approach<br />
Industrial demand<br />
Surveys, contracts,<br />
sector analysis and<br />
economic reports<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 5
Reference Case(TGI)<br />
AAnnual l D<strong>Demand</strong> d<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.
Residential Average Use Per Customer<br />
Numberr<br />
of Customeers<br />
Thousannds<br />
40<br />
35<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
TGI Residential Customers<br />
Distribution of Normalized Annual Consumption - 2003 & 2008<br />
Increased share of MFDs in the housing mix<br />
Retrofit of low & mid-efficient appliances<br />
103.1 GJ<br />
2003 2008<br />
Annual Consumption Range (GJ)<br />
92.5 GJ<br />
21% decline since 1999 (2.5% annually)<br />
Building codes and standards<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 7
Commercial Average use Per Customer<br />
of Customeers<br />
Number<br />
9,000<br />
8,000<br />
7,000<br />
6,000<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
TGI Small Commercial Customers<br />
Distribution of Annual Normalized Consumption - 2003 & 2008<br />
2003 2008<br />
Annual Consumption Range (GJ)<br />
Top 5 sectors analyzed individually<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 8
Industrial <strong>Demand</strong><br />
Annualizzed<br />
Consumptiion<br />
(TJ)<br />
9,000<br />
8,000<br />
7,000<br />
6,000<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
Wood Products Sector - Downward Trend since<br />
2006<br />
Dec Dec-06 06 Nov Nov-07 07 Nov Nov-08 08 Nov Nov-09 09<br />
Wood Products sector<br />
continues to face<br />
challenges<br />
Annualizzed<br />
Consumptiion<br />
(TJ)<br />
3,200<br />
3,100<br />
3,000<br />
22,900 900<br />
2,800<br />
2,700<br />
2,600 ,<br />
2,500<br />
2,400<br />
2,300<br />
GreenhouseSector - Trending upward from 2008<br />
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09<br />
Greenhouse sector shows more<br />
variability due to fuel<br />
switching capabilities<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 9
Demannd<br />
(TJ)<br />
Reference Forecast – All Companies p<br />
240000<br />
220000<br />
200000<br />
180000<br />
160000<br />
140000<br />
120000<br />
100000<br />
80000<br />
60000<br />
40000<br />
20000<br />
0<br />
Reference Case: TGI Normal Annual <strong>Demand</strong> 2010 - 2030<br />
Residential <strong>Demand</strong> Commercial <strong>Demand</strong><br />
Industrial <strong>Demand</strong><br />
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 10
Demmand<br />
(TJ's)<br />
Energy gy Efficiency y and Conservation<br />
180,000 ,<br />
170,000<br />
160,000<br />
150,000<br />
140,000<br />
130,000<br />
120,000<br />
Ref case <strong>Demand</strong> -Scenario A<br />
<strong>Demand</strong> with scenario B<br />
D<strong>Demand</strong> d with ith scenario i C<br />
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 11
Reference Forecast – Scenario<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 12
Peak Day <strong>Demand</strong><br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.
Peaak<br />
<strong>Demand</strong>d<br />
(TJ's)<br />
Peak Day y <strong>Demand</strong><br />
1,600.0<br />
1,500.0<br />
1,400.0<br />
1,300.0<br />
1,200.0<br />
1,100.0<br />
1,000.0<br />
900.0<br />
TGI Peak <strong>Demand</strong> Forecast 2010 2010-2030 2030<br />
Reference Case<br />
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
`<br />
2009 peak use<br />
per customer<br />
to be held<br />
constant<br />
Integrated<br />
energy<br />
solutions<br />
impact on peak<br />
/annual<br />
demand – not<br />
shown<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 14
Future of demand forecasting<br />
Traditional<br />
Natural<br />
Gas<br />
Bio Gas<br />
Energy<br />
efficiency &<br />
conservation<br />
Terasen<br />
energy<br />
products and<br />
services<br />
Alternative<br />
energy<br />
solutions<br />
Transportation<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 15
New Approach pp On Gas <strong>Demand</strong><br />
New Customers<br />
NNew HHome<br />
Construction<br />
Housing Type<br />
Choice of<br />
Appliances<br />
AAppliance li EEnergy<br />
Choice<br />
Appliance Efficiency<br />
Building<br />
codes and<br />
standards<br />
Changing<br />
customer<br />
demand<br />
Legislative<br />
policies p<br />
Existing Customers<br />
Ch Choice i of f<br />
Appliances<br />
Appliance Energy<br />
Choice<br />
Appliance Efficiency<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 16
Lower Mainland Example p<br />
Annual <strong>Demand</strong><br />
Integrated<br />
energy<br />
solutions<br />
Energy<br />
efficiency &<br />
conservation<br />
Changing<br />
customer<br />
options<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 17
Example p – Integrated g Energy gy Solutions<br />
100 unit condo – thermal energy demand<br />
1<br />
0.9<br />
0.8<br />
0.7<br />
0.6<br />
Alternative energy<br />
05 0.5 Electricity<br />
0.4<br />
0.3<br />
0.2<br />
0.1<br />
0<br />
Current Future<br />
Gas<br />
Electricity<br />
savings<br />
GGas Savings S i<br />
GHG<br />
Reduction<br />
Peak /Annual<br />
ddemand d<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 18
TJ<br />
Example Continued<br />
Alternative Energy gy Forecast<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
-<br />
Multi family Residential standlone systems<br />
assumes 185 buildings by 2020<br />
Alternative Energy<br />
Natural Gas<br />
Electricity<br />
Electricity y<br />
savings<br />
134 GWh<br />
NG<br />
savings<br />
372,517<br />
GJ’s<br />
GHG<br />
reduction<br />
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 72%<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 19
BC Transportation p sector- GHG<br />
Rail<br />
2%<br />
Transit<br />
1%<br />
Off-Road<br />
3%<br />
Marine<br />
16%<br />
Passenger Air<br />
16%<br />
Heavy Trucks<br />
18%<br />
Small Cars<br />
11%<br />
Source: NRCan – September 2008<br />
Passenger<br />
Light Trucks<br />
15%<br />
Large Cars<br />
6%<br />
Freight Light<br />
Trucks<br />
6%<br />
Medium Trucks<br />
6%<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 20
Transportation p <strong>Demand</strong><br />
Heavy duty, medium duty, light duty, marine, transit bus applications<br />
P<br />
J<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
-<br />
5<br />
Transportation demand<br />
16% of total demand<br />
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030<br />
current<br />
future<br />
9%<br />
91%<br />
Conventional<br />
Fuel<br />
20% GHG<br />
Reduction<br />
Conventional<br />
Fuel<br />
Natural Gas<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 21
GHG Profile in BC<br />
Opportunities to Reduce<br />
Source: LiveSmart BC website (2006)<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 22<br />
22
<strong>Demand</strong> (TJ's) (<br />
Reduced Carbon Intensity y Future<br />
190 190,000 000<br />
175,000<br />
160,000<br />
145,000<br />
130,000<br />
115 115,000 000<br />
100,000<br />
Ref case <strong>Demand</strong> -Scenario A<br />
<strong>Demand</strong> with scenario B<br />
Alternative Energy(Conceptual)<br />
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 23
<strong>Demand</strong> (TTJ's)<br />
Reduced Carbon Intensity y Future<br />
190 190,000 000<br />
175,000<br />
160,000<br />
145,000<br />
130,000<br />
115 115,000 000<br />
100,000<br />
Ref case <strong>Demand</strong> -Scenario A<br />
<strong>Demand</strong> with scenario B<br />
Transportation sector(Conceptual)<br />
Alternative Energy(Conceptual)<br />
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 24
Conclusion<br />
• Traditional Natural Gas <strong>Demand</strong><br />
– <strong>Demand</strong> to remain relatively stable<br />
– EEC will ill continue ti tto hhelp l customers t use energy<br />
efficiently<br />
– IIncreased d iimpact t ffrom building b ildi codes d and d standards t d d<br />
• Exploring methodologies to meet forecasting<br />
needs for broad range of energy products and<br />
services<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 25
Questions / Discussion?<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 26
Natural GGas SSupply<br />
2010 Long Term Resource Planning Workshop<br />
May 27, 2010<br />
Contact Information<br />
Rohit Pala<br />
Commodity Manager<br />
Tel: (604) 592-7856<br />
Fax: (604) 592-7420<br />
EE-mail: il rohit.pala@terasengas.com<br />
hit l @t<br />
www.terasengas.com<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.
Key y Messages g for Gas Supply ppy<br />
• North America - unconventional gas supply has<br />
changed h d ffuture t supply l outlook tl k<br />
• BC unconventional supply – large part of the<br />
solution for Western Canadian declining gas<br />
reserves<br />
• Pacific Northwest - expansion required now in<br />
the region to meet growth<br />
• Terasen - opportunities to increase supply from<br />
BC to markets<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
2
North American Supply pp y Basins<br />
North American gas<br />
supply l projected j t d tto<br />
meet demand for 70+<br />
years!<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
3
$UUS/MMBtu<br />
Competing p g Fuel Prices<br />
$30.00<br />
$26.00<br />
$24.00<br />
$22.00<br />
NYMEX PROMPT MONTH LIGHT CRUDE<br />
NYMEX PROMPT MONTH NAT GAS<br />
$28.00 HEATING OIL#2 - EIA<br />
$20.00<br />
$18.00<br />
$16.00<br />
$14.00 $<br />
$12.00<br />
$10.00<br />
$8.00<br />
$6 $6.00 00<br />
$4.00<br />
$2.00<br />
$0.00<br />
FUEL OIL 1% - EIA<br />
Coal - Central Appalachian EIA<br />
Actual Prices<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
Settled prices to May 18, 2010<br />
Forward Prices<br />
4
Gas Price Forecasts - 2010 vs. 2008<br />
Source:<br />
NAVIGANT Consulting NGMarket<br />
Notes: How Shale Gas Affects Strategy in the Northwest, May 2010, page 2.<br />
NYMEX in<br />
$US/MMBtu<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
New<br />
unconventional<br />
supply l reserves<br />
in North America<br />
greatly softening<br />
pricing forecasts<br />
ffor natural t l gas<br />
5
Terasen’s Regional Market<br />
Storage<br />
British<br />
PNG<br />
Columbia<br />
Aitken<br />
Creek<br />
Station 2<br />
Mist<br />
Fort<br />
Nelson<br />
NWP<br />
Pine<br />
River<br />
McMahon<br />
Sumas<br />
Jackson<br />
Prairie<br />
WA<br />
OR<br />
Western Canada<br />
Sedimentary Basin<br />
AECO<br />
Stanfield<br />
Alberta<br />
Kingsgate<br />
Northwest<br />
Pipeline<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
Carbon<br />
Trading Hubs<br />
Clay<br />
Basin<br />
TCPL<br />
Rocky<br />
Mountain<br />
Basin<br />
6
BC Take Away y Capacity p y By y 2015<br />
BCF/d =<br />
Billion cubic<br />
Horn River<br />
Horn River<br />
feet per day<br />
BBasin i<br />
Pipeline<br />
Montney<br />
Basin<br />
0.7 BCF/d<br />
Westcoast<br />
0.3 BCF/d<br />
•BC – will move<br />
over 6.5 BCF/d by<br />
2015 (Terasen<br />
peak day<br />
forecasted @ 1.2<br />
BCF/d)<br />
• Alberta – steep<br />
declines in<br />
production<br />
Kitimat<br />
LNG<br />
0.9 BCF/d Groundbirch<br />
Pipeline<br />
• Oil sands -<br />
Westcoast<br />
2.1 BCF/d<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
Alliance<br />
0.5 + BCF/d<br />
1.7 BCF/d<br />
Westcoast Enhanced<br />
0.3 BCF/d<br />
demand to<br />
increase<br />
substantially<br />
•Producers want<br />
access to liquid<br />
markets<br />
7
Westcoast’s T-South Enhanced Service<br />
Spectra<br />
Energy<br />
Station 2<br />
• Westcoast Energy utilizing part<br />
of Terasen Terasen’s s system<br />
• Allows BC supply to move<br />
within the province to markets<br />
BC Alberta<br />
• 2 year pilot May 1, 2010 - April<br />
Westcoast<br />
SSouthern Spectra<br />
Southern<br />
30 30, 2012<br />
Mainline<br />
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and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.<br />
Huntingdon<br />
Seattle<br />
Kingsvale<br />
NWP<br />
WA<br />
Terasen<br />
Gas TCPL<br />
BC<br />
GTN<br />
TCPL<br />
Nova<br />
Kingsgate Kingsgate<br />
• 87 MMCF/d available in total<br />
• Minimum $8.6 MM net benefit<br />
to Terasen’s customers over 2<br />
years<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
8
Terasen’s Regional g Expansion p Proposal p<br />
Station 2<br />
Savona<br />
System constraint -<br />
current flow limited<br />
to 105 MMCF/d<br />
Vancouver<br />
Kingsvale<br />
Huntingdon<br />
Seattle<br />
BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTHERN CROSSING<br />
TERASEN GAS<br />
WESTCOAST<br />
NW PIPELINE<br />
TRANSCANADA (BC)<br />
TRANSCANADA GTN<br />
Kamloops<br />
Oliver<br />
Kelowna<br />
Penticton<br />
Southern<br />
Crossing line<br />
can flow 250<br />
MMCF/d<br />
Trail<br />
WASHINGTON IDAHO<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
Yahk<br />
Kingsgate<br />
9
Regional g Peak Day y <strong>Demand</strong> vs. Capacity p y<br />
Million M MMBBTu/d<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
0<br />
Mt. Hayes LNG<br />
PEAK<br />
LNG<br />
UNDERGROUND<br />
STORAGE<br />
PIPELINE<br />
NW Total Firm Peak Day <strong>Demand</strong>/Capacity Balance<br />
(ID, ( , OR, , WA, , BC) )<br />
2010-11 2011-12 2013-14 2015-16 2017-18<br />
Year (Nov-Oct)<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
Peak day<br />
capacity is<br />
constrained<br />
in the I-5<br />
region<br />
10
Proposed p Regional g Infrastructure<br />
Source: NWGA 2010 Outlook<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
II-5 5 region<br />
peak day<br />
constraint<br />
zone<br />
11
Summary<br />
• North American Supply – abundance of gas supply for at<br />
least next 70 years<br />
• Gas Prices – softening largely due to availability of long<br />
term gas supply across North America<br />
• BC Supply - to play a larger role in Western Canadian<br />
basin<br />
• Infrastructure Expansion - required now in the Pacific<br />
Northwest region to meet peak demand<br />
• BC Market – well positioned to benefit from<br />
developments<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
12
Long Term System Planning<br />
2010 Long Term Resource Planning Workshop<br />
May 27, 2010<br />
Contact Information<br />
Edmond Leung<br />
Manager, Transmission Assets & Improvements<br />
E-mail: edmond.leung@terasengas.com<br />
www www.terasengas.com<br />
terasengas com<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.
Key y Messages g<br />
Terasen Gas needs a long term comprehensive Asset<br />
Management strategy to both expand and sustain its<br />
gas assets. t<br />
This long term strategy will support safe safe, reliable reliable,<br />
environmentally responsible and economical gas<br />
delivery services to its customers now and in future.<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 2
Long g Term System y Expansion p Plan<br />
3 Major Transmission Systems<br />
(Vancouver Island, Coastal, Interior)<br />
– Drivers for infrastructure resource additions<br />
– Anticipated constraints and timing for<br />
reinforcement<br />
– Resource options<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 3
Terasen Gas System y Overview<br />
TGVI:<br />
Customers – 102,000<br />
Peak Day – 105 TJ/d<br />
Lower Mainland:<br />
Customers – 583,000<br />
Peak Day – 970 TJ/d<br />
Terasen<br />
Transmission<br />
Lines<br />
Interior:<br />
Customers – 258 258,000 000<br />
Peak Day – 376 TJ/d<br />
Terasen<br />
Distribution<br />
Service Area<br />
Other Natural<br />
Gas Lines<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 4
Vancouver Island and Coastal Systems y<br />
ICP<br />
Mt. Hayes<br />
LNG<br />
PPotential t ti l Tilb Tilbury<br />
Expansion<br />
• add gas supply<br />
benefits<br />
• LNG as<br />
transport fuel<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 5
103 TJ/d<br />
110 TJ/d<br />
Interior Transmission System y<br />
Savona<br />
Kingsvale<br />
Pipeline loop<br />
12”<br />
Hedley<br />
KAMLOOPS<br />
141 TJ/d<br />
Potential<br />
Reinforcement for<br />
transportation service<br />
VERNON<br />
KELOWNA<br />
10” 10 16” 16<br />
12”<br />
• Additional system resource<br />
required in 2017+ to meet<br />
ddemand dgrowthh High<br />
demand<br />
growth area<br />
• System addition schedule<br />
could be advanced due to:<br />
Peakshaving LNG<br />
PENTICTON<br />
OLIVER “Y”<br />
SCP<br />
Pipeline loop<br />
Midway<br />
10”<br />
24”<br />
Trail<br />
– new industrial demand in<br />
Okanagan<br />
NELSON<br />
251 TJ/d<br />
Compressor<br />
Addition<br />
12”<br />
Kit-B<br />
50 TJ/d<br />
Kit-A<br />
YAHK<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 6
System Expansion to meet Growth<br />
• Terasen Gas (Vancouver Island)<br />
– Mt. Hayes LNG facility under construction, in service for 2011 winter<br />
– No further major expansion before 2021<br />
• TTerasen Gas G Inc I – LLower MMainland i l d<br />
– No expansion requirement due to customer growth<br />
– Potential expansion p of Tilbury y LNG for additional supply ppy benefit or LNG as<br />
transportation fuel<br />
• Terasen Gas Inc – Interior<br />
– Expansion required by 2017 due to customer growth in the Okanagan<br />
– Expansion schedule could be accelerated due to:<br />
• New industrial demand in Okanagan<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 7
Long Term Sustainment Plan<br />
Sustaining existing assets<br />
– Challenge<br />
– Response<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 8
Factors Affecting g Service Life of Assets<br />
Service Level Change to Physical Mortality<br />
CCustomers t Act of Nature<br />
Economic<br />
Efficiency<br />
Obsolescence<br />
Service Life<br />
Safe Safe, reliable, reliable<br />
environmentally<br />
responsible,<br />
economical i l<br />
Installation<br />
Material<br />
Third Parties<br />
Standards & Codes<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 9
Service Life Considerations<br />
Material<br />
Standards & Codes<br />
Installation Third Parties Service Level Change to<br />
Customers<br />
Average<br />
SERVICE LIFE<br />
Act of Nature<br />
Obsolescence<br />
Ph Physical i l MMortality t lit<br />
Economic<br />
Efficiency<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 10
LEGEND<br />
Interior Transmission System<br />
Duke Savona 20” TP<br />
(12272) 1997<br />
SAVONA (13028)<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
1973<br />
1973<br />
KAMLOOPS<br />
Savona Penticton 12” TP - 12056 40% of 1440 km over 50<br />
years of service. service<br />
12”<br />
1957<br />
ARMSTRONG<br />
(13141)<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
2003<br />
VERNON<br />
12”<br />
1957<br />
KINGSVALE (13027)<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
1973<br />
KELOWNA<br />
HEDLEY<br />
(13125)<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
2000<br />
PENTICTON<br />
Castlegar-Nelson<br />
6” TP<br />
(12059)<br />
1957<br />
Kingsvale –<br />
Oliver 12” TP<br />
(12060)<br />
1972<br />
MIDWAY (13064)<br />
Oliver Y – Penticton<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
16” TP (12264)<br />
STATION Trail – Castlegar<br />
1994<br />
1994 8” TP (12058)<br />
1957<br />
OLIVER “Y”<br />
EXISTING COMPRESSOR UNIT<br />
Southern Crossing 24”<br />
TP (12275) - 2000<br />
Savona Penticton 12” TP - 12056<br />
Penticton – Trail 10” TP (12057)<br />
1957<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
CASTLEGAR<br />
WARFIELD<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
(13037) 1975 and 1977<br />
NELSON<br />
Columbia River<br />
Suspension Bridge<br />
(12063)<br />
12”<br />
1975<br />
Kootenay River<br />
Suspension Bridge<br />
(12064)<br />
Southern Crossing 24”<br />
TP (12275) - 2000<br />
KITCHENER A (13065)<br />
COMPRESSOR STATIONS 1994<br />
YAHK<br />
KITCHENER B<br />
(13124)<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATIONS 2000<br />
11
Coastal Transmission System<br />
Cape Horn-Burrard Thermal<br />
20” (42008) ( ) 1960<br />
BURRARD<br />
THERMAL<br />
PLANT<br />
1<br />
C<br />
Coquitlam compressor for<br />
gas going to Vancouver Island<br />
Noons Creek-Eagle Mtn<br />
24” (42020)<br />
1989<br />
Cape Horn-Burrard Thermal<br />
20” (42008) 1960<br />
COQUITLAM<br />
Cape Horn-Burrard Thermal<br />
20” (42008) 1960<br />
Livingston – Coquitlam 12 12”<br />
(42005) 1958<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
50% of 257 km over<br />
50 years of service<br />
FRASER<br />
Major Crossing Fraser River<br />
Tilbury-Fraser<br />
20” (42012)<br />
Nichol-Port Mann<br />
Nichol-Fraser24”<br />
(42007) 1958<br />
24” (42013) PATTULLO<br />
1959 (42006)<br />
1956<br />
Roebuck-Tilbury<br />
2<br />
24”<br />
1958<br />
NICHOL<br />
36” - 914 mm (42037) ( )<br />
Huntingdon-Nichol<br />
30” (42004) 1964<br />
Livingston g – Coquitlam q 12”<br />
(42005) 1958<br />
FORT<br />
LANGLEY<br />
1959<br />
Tilbury LNG<br />
12” (42014)<br />
1971<br />
LNG<br />
PLANT Tilbury<br />
LNG 6”<br />
(42015)<br />
36” (42010) 1981<br />
ROEBUCK<br />
Roebuck-Tilbury<br />
24” (42009) 1959<br />
TILBURY<br />
Balfour-Nichol 42”<br />
(42016) 1992<br />
Livingston-Patullo 18”<br />
(42006) 1956<br />
12” 12<br />
1958<br />
LIVINGSTON<br />
LANGLEY(43075)<br />
Huntingdon-Balfour 42” (42003)<br />
COMPRESSOR STATION 2000<br />
1977<br />
Tilbury-Benson<br />
12” (42011) 1959<br />
BENSON<br />
Huntingdon-Nichol<br />
30” (42004)<br />
1964<br />
Huntingdon-Nichol<br />
30”(42004) 1964<br />
HUNTINGDON<br />
3<br />
12
Vancouver Island Transmission System<br />
LEGEND<br />
ELK FALLS<br />
CAMPBELL RIVER<br />
COURTENAY<br />
CUMBERLAND<br />
EXISTING COMPRESSOR UNIT<br />
Major j Crossing g<br />
Straight of Georgia<br />
Dual (62000)<br />
PORT ALBERNI<br />
Major Crossing<br />
Algerine Passage Dual<br />
(62001)<br />
QUALICUM<br />
POWELL RIVER<br />
TEXADA ISLAND<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
(63004)<br />
MT HAYES LNG PLANT<br />
-under construction<br />
-in-service in service in 2011<br />
(63042)<br />
Major j Crossing g<br />
Malaspina Strait Dual<br />
(62005)<br />
SECHELT<br />
NANAIMO<br />
HARMAC<br />
DUNCAN<br />
SHAWNIGAN LAKE<br />
CROFTON<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.<br />
664 km<br />
21 years years in service<br />
PORT MELLON<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATION<br />
(63003)<br />
GREATER VICTORIA<br />
1989<br />
COQUITLAM<br />
COMPRESSOR<br />
STATIONS<br />
(63005)<br />
13
What problem are we facing?<br />
- a wave of asset retirements is coming<br />
27% of DP,<br />
35% of TP<br />
Average SERVICE LIFE<br />
Large portion of pipeline asset<br />
reaching Avg SERVICE LIFE<br />
within 10-15 years !<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 14
Major increase in capital required<br />
$3,826 million [2010 CDN]<br />
$ 340 million [2010 CDN]<br />
$2 $2,452 452 million [2010 CDN]<br />
Need a plan to manage capital<br />
reinvestments against available<br />
resources<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 1515
Our Business Challenge<br />
• Need to manage g factors that impact p the service life of assets<br />
• Need to manage increased risks as service life ends<br />
– Safety, y reliability, y environment, & economics in service deliveries<br />
• A large portion of aging assets amplifies our business<br />
challenge – looming major capital reinvestments are required<br />
Need to plan for regulatory approval & to ensure<br />
resource availability<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 16
Develop a long term sustainment plan<br />
-applying pp y g asset management g ppractices<br />
Continuous Improvement Process<br />
Asset Business<br />
Registry Values<br />
System<br />
Sustainment Plan<br />
programs<br />
Asset<br />
Health<br />
Review<br />
Long Term Asset Management Plan<br />
System<br />
Expansion Plan<br />
programs<br />
Projects projects<br />
Business Capital<br />
Cases Planning<br />
O&M Plan<br />
programs p g<br />
tactics<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 17
Progress on long term sustainment plan<br />
ACTION PLAN 2010 2011 2012<br />
1st 1 System Sustainment Planning Cycle (underway)<br />
Asset registry / Business<br />
Values / Asset Health Review<br />
Identify Higher Risk Projects<br />
2nd 2 System Sustainment Planning Cycle (proposed)<br />
Continuous Improvement on<br />
Continuous improvement<br />
AM Steps<br />
Submit Long Term<br />
Sustainment Plan<br />
Today<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 18
Summary<br />
Terasen Gas needs a long term comprehensive Asset<br />
Management strategy to both expand and sustain its<br />
gas assets. t<br />
This long term strategy will support safe safe, reliable reliable,<br />
environmentally responsible and economical gas<br />
delivery services to its customers now and in future.<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 19
Terasen. A Fortis company. 20
2010 LTRP Action Plan<br />
2010 Long Term Resource Planning Workshop<br />
May 27, 2010<br />
Ken Ross<br />
Integrated g Resource Planning g Manager g<br />
Contact: 604-576-7343<br />
ken.ross@terasengas.com<br />
www.terasengas.com<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company.
Proposed p 2010 LTRP Action Plan<br />
• Continue developing new energy forecast approaches<br />
– Provincial thermal energy demand baseline forecast<br />
• Establish an external Resource Plan Advisory Group<br />
• CContinue ti tto collaborate ll b t on energy policy li and d planning l i<br />
• Pursue carbon reduction strategies:<br />
– Integrated energy solutions, solutions NGV services, services renewable biomethane supply<br />
• Develop / implement asset management program enhancements<br />
• Plan and implement near-term near term system improvements improvements, monitor<br />
long term system expansion needs<br />
• Develop regional natural gas supply and infrastructure solutions<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 2
Feedback from this Workshop<br />
Please provide any written feedback you have<br />
electronically by June 15th electronically by June 15 , 2010 to:<br />
IRP@terasengas.com<br />
For more information about Terasen’s LTRP as<br />
this process proceeds proceeds, please visit:<br />
www.terasengas.com/IRP<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 3
Thank You<br />
Terasen. A Fortis company. 4
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