Language of Risk - FLOODsite

FLOODsite Language of Risk 2 nd Ed.
Contract No:GOCE-CT-2004-505420
Recommendation: An action that is taken to reduce either the probability of flooding or the
consequences of flooding or some combination of the two.
Rationale: Discussion at the FLOODsite Management team meeting (18.01.2005) on the Dresden
paper (Schanze et al, 2005) identified the term ‘Risk Management Measure’ to be used within the
context of flood risk management as opposed to “mitigation” in the Dresden paper. Mitigation in its
common usage often has too narrow an interpretation of the actions involved whereas “management”
without qualification was considered to have too broad an interpretation.
4.11 Scenario
A plausible description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent
set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (e.g., rate of technology changes,
prices). Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. The results of scenarios (unlike forecasts)
depend on the boundary conditions of the scenario.
Green et al (2004)
Recommendation: A plausible description of a situation, based on a coherent and internally
consistent set of assumptions. Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts. The results of
scenarios (unlike forecasts) depend on the boundary conditions of the scenario.
Rationale: The definition of Green et al (2004) has an underlying implication of climate change.
Within flood system defence reliability analysis, the term ‘scenario’ is used to define potential
combinations of defence failures under specified loading conditions. The definition of Green et al
(2005) has therefore been broadened to encompass the defence reliability aspects.
4.12 Strategy
A strategy is defined as combination of long-term goals, aims, specific targets, technical measures,
policy instruments, and process patterns (e.g. participation, intense horizontal communication) which
are continuously aligned with the societal context. The societal context comprises economic, social,
and political conditions, formal and informal institutions, resources and capabilities.
Pettigrew & Whipp (1991), Volberda (1998)
A strategy is defined as combination of measures and instruments as well as the necessary resources
for actions to implement the basic long-term goals of a business organisation
Whipp (2001)
A strategy is a consistent set of measures, aiming to influence developments in a specific way
Hooijer et al. 2004
Recommendation: A strategy is a combination of long-term goals, aims, specific targets, technical
measures, policy instruments, and process which are continuously aligned with the societal context.
Rationale: Changing from the paradigm of flood protection to flood risk management raises
challenging questions of formulating and implementing strategic alternatives within society. In
particular strategies to reduce vulnerability and to increase preparedness require a comprehensive
understanding of flood risk management.
T32_04_01_ FLOODsite_Language_of_Risk_D32_2_v5_2_P1 30 April 2009
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