Examples of economic analysis - the Generation ?uro Students' Award

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Careful consideration is needed • Central banks, and the GC in particular, look at a very large amount of data information and analysis very carefully • The discussion and deliberation plays an important role. • Everything is considered very carefully: in fact, in the presence of doubts modern central bankers prefer to be cautious and move little steps at a time. • They also need to be forward-looking • Unfortunately, there is no easy procedure that generates a correct monetary policy decision: in fact it may take some time – months or even years – to gauge the correctness of a MP decision today • Thus, do your best and remember that you have to upload your essay to the competition website by 8 p.m. CET
The latest data releases • Eurostat: Latest news releases http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/eurostat/home/ • ECB • Statistics, latest data http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/html/index.en.html • Monthly Bulletin http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/mb/html/index.en.html • Monetary developments http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/stats/md/html/index.en.html • Bank lending survey http://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/surveys/lend/html/index.en.html • Newspaper and analysts’ reports: it’s important to get a feeling for the “news component” in the releases
Page 1 and 2: Explaining Your Monetary Policy Dec
Page 3 and 4: What you have to do… - These are
Page 6 and 7: What you have to do… 7 th , now y
Page 8 and 9: …and why is it difficult? 3 rd ,
Page 10 and 11: … but the IS is also a highly pol
Page 13 and 14: 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 Example
Page 15: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (I) • The Econo
Page 18 and 19: Examples of economic analysis • C
Page 20 and 21: Examples of economic analysis • C
Page 22 and 23: A remark: what type of data should
Page 24 and 25: Monetary Analysis • Beyond assess
Page 26 and 27: MONEY GROWTH AND INFLATION IN THE E
Page 28 and 29: Example of monetary analysis • Lo
Page 30: The importance of expectations for
Page 33: Example: Distribution of Euro Area

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