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crushing the crescent
did: from foreign elements that
introduced radical ideas into the
liberal Islam practiced by most
Uzbeks. After the initial terrorist
incident, repressive government
responses have likely exacerbated
this new threat. Although
the Soviets pursued the same
types of policies, Islam had not
globalized and produced radical
sects that advocate violence
to the extent that it has today;
therefore, past repression did
not produce the same increased
security problems that the Uzbek
repression likely does now.
Despite the limiting factors of
analyzing cause and effect, in total
it could be said that Karimov’s
policies decreased domestic stability
in the immediate short run,
increased stability in the medium
term, and likely will have the effect
of decreasing stability in the
long run. Looking at specific acts
of repression and the terrorist incidents
that followed, the shortterm
effects are the most easily
measured. As the public grew accustomed
to increased affronts
on their freedoms in the medium
term, there was a lull in violence
from 2001 to 2003, which is also
true of the period directly following
Andijan from 2005 to 2009.
In the future, more analysis
needs to be conducted to determine
the long-term effects
of the government response
at Andijan, the biggest test of
whether repression will yield
further violence. Since then no
major terrorist attacks have been
reported, but the domestic security
situation in Uzbekistan
should be closely monitored. It is
likely that violence will rise again
after dissenters have had time to
regroup. Further analysis is also
necessary to examine the actions
of Uzbek nationals in other
countries, who may be increasing
transnational operations as
an indirect result of the government
restrictions in their own
country. Terrorism did not begin
with government repression in
Uzbekistan but it continues with
it, and the cycle of violence will
not cease until the government
either adopts a wholly draconian
mindset that prohibits independent
thought or ceases entirely
to restrict independent belief.
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The author retains the copyright for this article and should be contacted directly for permission to reproduce. The author can be reached at katebwilkinson@gmail.com
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