Unlocking Value from the Feed-in Tariff in the Ontario Green ... - Hatch
Unlocking Value from the Feed-in Tariff in the Ontario Green ... - Hatch
Unlocking Value from the Feed-in Tariff in the Ontario Green ... - Hatch
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Feed</strong>-<strong>in</strong> <strong>Tariff</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
Executive Summary<br />
October 30 th , 2009<br />
Energy Practice
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
The presentation will outl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> key f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> report which addresses<br />
three questions<br />
3 Primary Questions <strong>the</strong> Study Will Address<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Case<br />
(Why should we do<br />
this as a utility, power<br />
generator or <strong>in</strong>vestor?)<br />
Integration Issues<br />
(What are <strong>the</strong> costs<br />
and risks <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
renewables?)<br />
Project Execution<br />
Issues<br />
(How will we execute<br />
<strong>the</strong> projects to<br />
overcome <strong>the</strong> risks?)<br />
• What is <strong>the</strong> potential total NPV-positive bus<strong>in</strong>ess case to be generated for utilities<br />
and power generators <strong>in</strong> respond<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act?<br />
• What drives this value and how can it be maximized?<br />
• What is <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestment required to create this value?<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> operational <strong>in</strong>terferences and costs associated with own<strong>in</strong>g and<br />
operat<strong>in</strong>g a renewable facility, expand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> electricity distribution assets <strong>in</strong> order<br />
to connect renewable facilities and to implement advanced connectivity (sometimes<br />
called <strong>the</strong> “Smart Grid”) and enhance and expand transmission assets?<br />
• What is <strong>the</strong> economic impact of <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegration issues?<br />
• What are <strong>the</strong> execution problems to leverage <strong>the</strong> GEA to deliver projects on-time<br />
and with<strong>in</strong> budget while meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> operational targets?<br />
• What is <strong>the</strong> economic impact of <strong>the</strong>se problems?<br />
• What execution practices can be implemented <strong>in</strong> order to enhance value?<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
2
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
The act has <strong>the</strong> potential to create significant value for LDC’s [1] , transmitters and<br />
renewable generators provided <strong>the</strong> barriers to implementation are removed<br />
Recognise Significant value: At least $4.5bn (2009 Canadian Dollars) of value is available to be captured by<br />
LDC’s, renewable generators and transmitters only. Equal, yet not necessarily additive, to approximately 1% of<br />
<strong>Ontario</strong>’s GDP.<br />
Positive Sector Impact [2] : In <strong>the</strong> base case, value is created and <strong>the</strong> returns broadly match <strong>in</strong>vestor expectations<br />
while <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g productivity. The net cash-flow-at-risk <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> generat<strong>in</strong>g sector decreases.<br />
Def<strong>in</strong>e Critical Path: A key step is develop<strong>in</strong>g an implementation plan which can highlight <strong>the</strong> critical path to<br />
remove structural barriers and coord<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g stakeholders around this plan. Forge greater alignment between <strong>the</strong><br />
supply-side, renewable generators, utilities, regulators, government agencies, manufacturers, and energy<br />
consumers. Part of unlock<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> market implies creat<strong>in</strong>g a manufactur<strong>in</strong>g supply base which can cost-effectively<br />
serve <strong>the</strong> generators<br />
Adapt & Ref<strong>in</strong>e: The stakeholders govern<strong>in</strong>g, manag<strong>in</strong>g and participat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> electricity network need to have<br />
<strong>the</strong>ir roles ref<strong>in</strong>ed, and codes and standards agreed to manage <strong>the</strong> changes.<br />
Open Market: The value h<strong>in</strong>ges on effectively address<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> structural (enabl<strong>in</strong>g) barriers which can open <strong>the</strong><br />
market for <strong>in</strong>vestment.<br />
Play to W<strong>in</strong>: There are project execution challenges, as well as opportunities to <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> value of <strong>the</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
case.<br />
Note:<br />
[1] Local Distribution Company<br />
[2] The impact is positive for value creation, returns and productivity only for <strong>the</strong> renewable generation and, LDC and Transmission asset based <strong>in</strong>creases directly a<br />
consequence of <strong>the</strong> FIT programme. The risk reduction applies to <strong>the</strong> entire generation sector beyond renewables. Socio-economic impact is excluded <strong>in</strong> this study.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
3
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
$4.5bn of value can be created for <strong>the</strong> three sectors if <strong>the</strong> OPA IPSP [1]<br />
projections of 16,084 MW renewable <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity is achieved by 2025<br />
Total Net <strong>Value</strong> under <strong>the</strong> different scenarios [1]<br />
Total Net <strong>Value</strong> ($ Million)<br />
7,000<br />
6,000<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
3.3%<br />
744<br />
566<br />
3,186<br />
3,304<br />
3,185<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d On Shore<br />
rema<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong><br />
primary supply<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d Off Shore<br />
and Solar PV take<br />
off at <strong>the</strong> expense<br />
of W<strong>in</strong>d On<br />
Shore<br />
1,022<br />
534<br />
5,020<br />
615<br />
356<br />
Transmission Utilities<br />
LDCs<br />
Renewable Generators<br />
Base Case High Case Low Case<br />
Scenarios<br />
CAGR Renewable Installed Capacity<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
[1] The new transmission directive has been analysed seperately. The IPSP was selected as <strong>the</strong>re was more data available at <strong>the</strong> time of <strong>the</strong> study. The<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> differences <strong>Value</strong> between <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> <strong>the</strong> Energy IPSP and Act Tx Directive are not significant for <strong>the</strong> purposes of <strong>the</strong> study.<br />
© [2] 2009 To <strong>Hatch</strong> connect - All rights eligible reserved renewable facilities <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> grid.<br />
[3] All scenarios assumed Mix 1: “W<strong>in</strong>d Off-Shore takes off <strong>in</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong>” and <strong>in</strong>crementally <strong>in</strong>creases to 65% of <strong>the</strong> renewables <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity by<br />
4<br />
2027.<br />
5.8%<br />
1.5%
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
If scale is reached and <strong>the</strong> FIT is ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>ed, productive value can be created <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> LDC, transmission and renewable generation sectors<br />
Growth <strong>in</strong> Net <strong>Value</strong> vs Growth <strong>in</strong> Installed Capacity<br />
Temporary Renewables<br />
Growth:<br />
• Slow ris<strong>in</strong>g<br />
capacity <strong>in</strong><br />
unsusta<strong>in</strong>able and<br />
shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g sector<br />
Decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g Productivity<br />
<strong>in</strong> Shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Market:<br />
• Shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong><br />
value greater<br />
than shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong><br />
renewables<br />
capacity<br />
Unsusta<strong>in</strong>able Renewables Growth:<br />
• Fast ris<strong>in</strong>g capacity <strong>in</strong><br />
shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g sector<br />
Growth (CAGR) <strong>in</strong> Renewable<br />
Installed Capacity (%)<br />
+<br />
-<br />
Ris<strong>in</strong>g Productivity <strong>in</strong> Shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Market:<br />
• Shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong> value less than shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong><br />
renewables capacity<br />
0<br />
-<br />
5<br />
8<br />
6<br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum Case<br />
7<br />
0<br />
2<br />
4<br />
Growth <strong>in</strong> Net <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong><br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum Case Scenario (%)<br />
Renewables Shortage:<br />
• <strong>Value</strong> expand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> this<br />
quadrant, but at a slower rate<br />
than renewables capacity<br />
Base Case<br />
High Case<br />
1<br />
3<br />
Susta<strong>in</strong>able Growth<br />
“Sweet Spot”:<br />
• Expand<strong>in</strong>g<br />
productive sectors<br />
Increas<strong>in</strong>g Productivity<br />
and Growth:<br />
• Growth <strong>in</strong> value per<br />
sector is occurr<strong>in</strong>g,<br />
but <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity<br />
is decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
+<br />
Incentivisation Excess:<br />
• <strong>Value</strong> per sector is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g rapidly despite<br />
stagnant growth <strong>in</strong> renewable capacity<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
Key:<br />
Most attractive<br />
Least Attractive<br />
1<br />
8<br />
5
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
In addition to creat<strong>in</strong>g productive value, renewables will also reduce <strong>the</strong> total<br />
f<strong>in</strong>ancial risk of <strong>the</strong> total generation sector (renewables and non- renewables)<br />
Risk Profile Changes as Renewables are Increased<br />
Return (After-Tax Unlevered IRR/ Energy<br />
Produced)<br />
10<br />
9<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
1<br />
Mix with Base Case (2027)<br />
% Nuclear 58.1%<br />
% Hydro 32.0%<br />
% Gas 6.8%<br />
% W<strong>in</strong>d 1.7%<br />
% O<strong>the</strong>r 1.4%<br />
Current Mix (Energy Produced)<br />
% Nuclear 50.0%<br />
% Hydro 25.7%<br />
% Coal 16.8%<br />
% Gas 6.8%<br />
% W<strong>in</strong>d 0.5%<br />
% O<strong>the</strong>r 0.2%<br />
0<br />
5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00<br />
% Cash-flow-at-risk (Risk a.k.a Standard Deviation of Cash Flows)<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
[1] The analyses assumes IRR is a function of <strong>the</strong> operat<strong>in</strong>g constra<strong>in</strong>ts.<br />
[2] It is assumed <strong>in</strong>creased nuclear output will replace some of <strong>the</strong> coal capacity losses. The rest will be replaced by <strong>the</strong> FIT eligible technologies and <strong>the</strong><br />
difference by large Hydro. An assumption is made that Large Hydro receives <strong>the</strong> same returns as FIT eligible hydro facilities
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Generators could capture 71% ($3.2bn) of <strong>the</strong> total value and present <strong>the</strong><br />
largest opportunity to maximise value<br />
Renewable Generators – <strong>Value</strong> Breakdown (Base Case)<br />
Total <strong>Value</strong> and Costs ($ Million)<br />
20,000<br />
18,000<br />
16,000<br />
14,000<br />
12,000<br />
10,000<br />
8,000<br />
6,000<br />
4,000<br />
2,000<br />
11,385<br />
5,789<br />
17,174<br />
1,432<br />
10,770<br />
1,570<br />
3,402<br />
216<br />
3,186<br />
0<br />
Revenues<br />
Net<br />
Term<strong>in</strong>al<br />
<strong>Value</strong><br />
Total <strong>Value</strong><br />
Creation<br />
OpEx CapEx Taxes Net <strong>Value</strong> LDC<br />
Generation<br />
Net <strong>Value</strong><br />
(excl. LDC<br />
Generation)<br />
<strong>Value</strong> Breakdown<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note: The term<strong>in</strong>al value represents <strong>the</strong> total value of <strong>the</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>uous operation beyond 2027 assum<strong>in</strong>g no additional growth and capital <strong>in</strong>vestment beyond<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g exist<strong>in</strong>g capacity <strong>in</strong> 2027.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
7
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Generators could earn <strong>the</strong> targeted 11% After-Tax Unlevered IRR under <strong>the</strong><br />
conservative assumptions used<br />
After-Tax Unlevered IRR <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Base Case<br />
Renewable Generators<br />
Bio Energy (Weighted Average)<br />
11.0<br />
13.7<br />
Transmitters<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d (Weighted Average)<br />
10.4<br />
11.1<br />
LDC – Dx and Gx [1]<br />
Hydro<br />
10.3<br />
10.8<br />
LDC – Distribution Only<br />
Solar PV (Weighted Average)<br />
9.9<br />
10.4<br />
After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />
After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note: [1] Assumes half of <strong>Ontario</strong>’s 91 LDC’s embark on renewable generation (
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
The risks <strong>in</strong> captur<strong>in</strong>g this return, however, could lead to 40% ($1.4bn) of <strong>the</strong><br />
potential value unrealised<br />
Generators Distribution Measur<strong>in</strong>g – Net <strong>Value</strong> of <strong>the</strong> Simulated Created Cash-Flow-at-Risk IRR for Renewable [1] for Generators Renewable Generators – After-Tax Generators (Base Unlevered Case) IRR<br />
Expected <strong>Value</strong><br />
Expected After-Tax Unlevered IRR<br />
3.2<br />
11<br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />
1.7<br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential After-Tax Unlevered IRR<br />
9.2<br />
Cash Flow at Risk<br />
1.5<br />
IRR at Risk<br />
1.8<br />
Potential Upside<br />
1.6<br />
Potential Upside<br />
1.9<br />
Net <strong>Value</strong> Created ($bn) After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
[1] Based on a simulation analyses of total value and return consider<strong>in</strong>g a best, most likely and worst case parameter for each model variable.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
9
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
For LDCs, <strong>the</strong> worst case value with generation is better than <strong>the</strong> expected<br />
value without generation, yet at <strong>the</strong> risk of obta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g a lower IRR<br />
LDC – Net <strong>Value</strong> Created<br />
$bn<br />
LDC – After-Tax Unlevered IRR<br />
%<br />
Expected<br />
<strong>Value</strong><br />
0.35<br />
0.56<br />
Expected IRR<br />
10.30<br />
9.87<br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum<br />
Potential<br />
<strong>Value</strong><br />
0.34<br />
0.42<br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum<br />
Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />
9.74<br />
9.85<br />
Cash-flow-atrisk<br />
0.01<br />
0.14<br />
Potential Upside:<br />
Dx & Gx: 0.24<br />
Dx Only: 0.01<br />
Dx & Gx<br />
Dx Only<br />
IRR-at-risk<br />
0.56<br />
0.02<br />
Potential Upside:<br />
Dx & Gx: 0.63%<br />
Dx Only: 0.03%<br />
Dx & Gx<br />
Dx Only<br />
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50<br />
0 4 8 12<br />
Billion<br />
%<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
[1] Based on a simulation analyses of total value and return consider<strong>in</strong>g a best, most likely and worst case parameter for each model variable.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
10
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Transmission utilities have <strong>the</strong> least to lose given <strong>the</strong>ir regulated return<br />
Transmitters Distribution – Net <strong>Value</strong> of Simulated Created IRR for Renewable Transmitters Generators – After-Tax (Base Unlevered Case) IRR<br />
Expected <strong>Value</strong><br />
Expected Tax Unlevered IRR<br />
0.74<br />
10.4<br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />
M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential Tax Unlevered IRR<br />
0.68<br />
10.34<br />
Cash Flow at Risk<br />
0.07<br />
Potential Upside<br />
0.09<br />
IRR at Risk<br />
0.06<br />
Potential Upside<br />
0.07<br />
Net <strong>Value</strong> Created ($bn) After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
[1] Based on a simulation analyses of total value and return consider<strong>in</strong>g a best, most likely and worst case parameter for each model variable.\<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
11
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Despite <strong>the</strong> potential value and <strong>in</strong>terest expressed <strong>the</strong>re had been few <strong>Ontario</strong><br />
orders placed for equipment with solar manufacturers <strong>in</strong> 2009<br />
2008 Order Book 2009 Order Book (2 Quarters)<br />
Modules Ordered and Delivered <strong>in</strong> 2008 (%) Modules Ordered and Planned for delivery <strong>in</strong> 2009 (%)<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Middle East<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
USA<br />
Germany<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Source: Interviews with <strong>the</strong> 11 largest solar module manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a, 4 w<strong>in</strong>d manufacturers <strong>in</strong> India, 3 solar manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Germany and 1 US supplier.<br />
HMC Analysis.<br />
Note: Manufacturers <strong>in</strong>terviewed only manufacture-to-order and have based <strong>the</strong>se estimates on actual orders as of 2 September 2009.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
12
BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
However, s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> announcements <strong>in</strong> late September, <strong>the</strong>re has been an<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> committed capital<br />
2009 Order Book (2 Quarters) 2009 Order Book (2 Quarters)<br />
Modules Ordered and Planned for delivery <strong>in</strong> 2009 (%)<br />
As of 2 September 2009<br />
Middle East<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
Modules Ordered and Planned for delivery <strong>in</strong> 2009 (%)<br />
As of 10 October 2009<br />
<strong>Ontario</strong><br />
Middle East<br />
Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />
USA<br />
Germany<br />
USA<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Source: Interviews with <strong>the</strong> 11 largest solar module manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a, 4 w<strong>in</strong>d manufacturers <strong>in</strong> India, 3 solar manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Germany and 1 US supplier.<br />
HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
Manufacturers <strong>in</strong>terviewed only manufacture-to-order and have based <strong>the</strong>se estimates on actual orders as of 2 September 2009.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
13
BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Structural Barriers: Comprise <strong>in</strong>itiatives, currently underway, which must be<br />
completed to open <strong>the</strong> “market” for <strong>in</strong>vestment<br />
Structural Barriers<br />
• The critical path to successfully<br />
unlock value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> act is<br />
fragmented amongst numerous<br />
stakeholders.<br />
• No one group, technology,<br />
region or sector by itself can<br />
capture <strong>the</strong> opportunity prov<strong>in</strong>ce<br />
wide.<br />
Summary of Structural Barriers<br />
Barrier Primary Secondary<br />
System Wide • Fragmentation of critical path<br />
X<br />
• Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> regulation, codes and standards X<br />
• Length of permitt<strong>in</strong>g process<br />
X<br />
• Lack of a suitable precedent<br />
X<br />
• System-wide implementation plan<br />
X<br />
• Several critical steps reside <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
doma<strong>in</strong> of entities who do not<br />
directly benefit <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> act.<br />
• It is not clear if complet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se<br />
critical steps is a priority for<br />
everyone.<br />
LDC’s /<br />
Transmitters /<br />
Generators<br />
• Enabl<strong>in</strong>g facilities/structures <strong>in</strong> transition<br />
• Will a <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity renewables cap be<br />
imposed?<br />
• Prioritis<strong>in</strong>g CDM<br />
X<br />
X<br />
X<br />
Industrial<br />
Supply Side<br />
• Cost <strong>in</strong>creases<br />
• How will <strong>the</strong> supply side be <strong>in</strong>centivized<br />
X<br />
X<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
14
BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Barrier: Mov<strong>in</strong>g local production to <strong>Ontario</strong> would create employment, yet will<br />
have an uncerta<strong>in</strong> impact on <strong>the</strong> costs and returns of generators<br />
Base Case Sensitivity to Changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Material & Equipment Costs [1]<br />
15%<br />
477<br />
382<br />
Decrease <strong>in</strong> value<br />
10%<br />
5%<br />
191<br />
286<br />
95<br />
0%<br />
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%<br />
Increase <strong>in</strong> Material & Equipment Costs<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note: [1] The local content sourc<strong>in</strong>g encourages only specific equipment to be sourced <strong>from</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong>.<br />
The figure above shows a general <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> equipment costs<br />
NPV ($Million) <strong>Value</strong> destroyed<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
15
BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Project Barriers: Potential developers have <strong>in</strong>complete <strong>in</strong>formation to compare<br />
<strong>the</strong> risk and return on <strong>in</strong>vestments and need to ensure effective delivery<br />
Project Barriers<br />
• Most <strong>in</strong>vestors are apprehensive<br />
about lock<strong>in</strong>g-<strong>in</strong> value dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />
actual project development<br />
stage.<br />
• Most potential <strong>in</strong>vestors are<br />
concerned that a cap will be<br />
imposed on renewables, if<br />
demand is high.<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
Plann<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Summary of Project Barriers<br />
Barrier Primary Secondary<br />
• Ambiguity about a cap on renewables<br />
X<br />
• Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty about metrics for <strong>the</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess case X<br />
• Identify<strong>in</strong>g entry po<strong>in</strong>ts <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> market<br />
X<br />
• Permitt<strong>in</strong>g delays<br />
X<br />
• Contrast<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> risk/return trade-off<br />
X<br />
• There are widely differ<strong>in</strong>g<br />
estimates and assumptions used<br />
to calculate <strong>the</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess cases.<br />
• Fund<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• CDM versus Generation<br />
X<br />
X<br />
Project<br />
Execution<br />
• M<strong>in</strong>imis<strong>in</strong>g risk of execution X<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
16
BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Barrier: There is still uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty as to whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>re will be a cap on<br />
renewables or if <strong>the</strong> planned transmission l<strong>in</strong>es will be completed as announced<br />
“Specifically show us<br />
where it says <strong>the</strong>re will not<br />
be a cap imposed on<br />
renewables <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future.<br />
We have not seen this [as]<br />
it is a major consideration<br />
before mak<strong>in</strong>g any large<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestments”<br />
“What happens if <strong>the</strong><br />
transmission l<strong>in</strong>es are<br />
delayed (or) not built <strong>in</strong><br />
time? There is angst that<br />
this major piece will be<br />
delayed”<br />
“We only <strong>in</strong>tend mak<strong>in</strong>g 4<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestments so <strong>the</strong> cap is<br />
not a concern to us <strong>in</strong> any<br />
way”<br />
“We th<strong>in</strong>k demand will be<br />
so high that <strong>the</strong><br />
government [will] have to<br />
step <strong>in</strong> [and] impose a cap<br />
on renewables”<br />
“The most important<br />
concern for our board<br />
would be <strong>the</strong> cap on<br />
renewables”<br />
“Who will pay for <strong>the</strong><br />
transmission l<strong>in</strong>es?”<br />
Source: Interviews with LDC’s and <strong>in</strong>vestor groups<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
17
BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Individual Barriers: Embedded generation on <strong>the</strong> scale recommended is new and<br />
only moderately appeal<strong>in</strong>g due to long payback periods<br />
Individual Barriers<br />
Summary of Individual Barriers<br />
• Applies primarily to Rooftop Solar<br />
Barrier Primary Secondary<br />
PV and Ground mounted Solar PV<br />
ga<strong>in</strong> must significantly outweigh<br />
[3] William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser, “Status Quo Bias <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>the</strong> loss – loss aversion [2]. Decision Mak<strong>in</strong>g”, Journal of Risk and Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty, 1988<br />
Facilities of a smaller size. Individual Bias • Communication and explanation of <strong>the</strong> benefits X<br />
• The payback period may extend<br />
• Status Quo Bias [3] (recession driven)<br />
X<br />
beyond <strong>the</strong> period of actual<br />
home/site ownership <strong>the</strong>reby<br />
• Hyperbolic discount<strong>in</strong>g<br />
X<br />
reduc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> benefits/value<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestors receive.<br />
• Consumers tend to apply higher<br />
discount rates to <strong>in</strong>vestments<br />
which have longer payback<br />
• Loss aversion<br />
X<br />
periods – hyperbolic discount<strong>in</strong>g [1].<br />
Source: [1] George A<strong>in</strong>slie. “Specious Reward: A Behavioural Theory of<br />
Impulsiveness and Impulse Control,” Psychological Bullet<strong>in</strong>, 1975<br />
• When consumers need to <strong>in</strong>cur a<br />
[2] Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of<br />
cost to receive a potential ga<strong>in</strong>, <strong>the</strong><br />
Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 1979<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
18
BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Barrier: Long payback periods discourage <strong>the</strong> use of technologies where <strong>the</strong><br />
owner cannot capture <strong>the</strong> full duration of benefits before ownership transfer<br />
Benefit Capture for Rooftop Mounted Solar PV<br />
Implications<br />
7.2<br />
11.4<br />
Average payback period for Rooftop<br />
Mounted Solar PV<br />
Average length of time before <strong>Ontario</strong><br />
residents sell <strong>the</strong>ir homes [1]<br />
<strong>Ontario</strong> residents may be<br />
unwill<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>in</strong>cur a large<br />
upfront capital <strong>in</strong>vestment with a<br />
long payback period. Recent<br />
surveys <strong>in</strong> London (UK) [2] ,<br />
however, <strong>in</strong>dicate that<br />
homeowners may pay more for<br />
homes with solar facilities.<br />
With <strong>the</strong> market uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties,<br />
<strong>Ontario</strong> residents may not<br />
change <strong>the</strong>ir homes as rapidly as<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> last 4 years.<br />
$ Million<br />
Source:<br />
[1] Fil<strong>in</strong>gs with <strong>the</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong> Canadian Hous<strong>in</strong>g and Renewal Association<br />
[2] Energy Sav<strong>in</strong>g Trust (http://www.est.org.uk/hous<strong>in</strong>gbuild<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
19
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
The structural barriers can be overcome by focus<strong>in</strong>g on six <strong>the</strong>mes of solutions<br />
Complete a sector wide implementation plan for <strong>the</strong> critical path and secondary items.<br />
Better communication, <strong>in</strong>formation and education.<br />
Reduce uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> act and regulation.<br />
F<strong>in</strong>alise <strong>the</strong> codes and standards.<br />
Develop a supply-side <strong>in</strong>dustrial plan to <strong>in</strong>cite production.<br />
Adapt and ref<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> roles of <strong>the</strong> players <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> electricity sector.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
20
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
When <strong>the</strong> barriers to discourage projects are removed, execution challenges<br />
should be addressed to ensure that value is unlocked<br />
Proper site and technology selection which impacts capacity factors, efficiencies and delays due to permitt<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Effectively design<strong>in</strong>g and build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> facilities.<br />
Develop<strong>in</strong>g a strategic sourc<strong>in</strong>g strategy to lock-<strong>in</strong> supply and lower costs.<br />
Maximis<strong>in</strong>g value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> Aborig<strong>in</strong>al adder.<br />
Manag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegration risks.<br />
Improv<strong>in</strong>g operat<strong>in</strong>g performance of <strong>the</strong> facilities to capture more value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
21
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Prevent<strong>in</strong>g project delivery problems is a process that starts before<br />
<strong>the</strong> actual project commences<br />
Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />
for Generators:<br />
$444m<br />
Project Execution – Effect of Typical Schedule Overruns (Base Case)<br />
Total Net <strong>Value</strong> ($ Million)<br />
5,000<br />
4,500<br />
4,000<br />
3,500<br />
3,000<br />
2,500<br />
2,000<br />
1,500<br />
1,000<br />
4,496<br />
444<br />
111<br />
159<br />
3,782<br />
500<br />
0<br />
Base Case Net <strong>Value</strong><br />
Renewable Generation<br />
Projects Overruns<br />
Distribution Projects<br />
Overruns<br />
Transmission Projects<br />
Overruns<br />
Result<strong>in</strong>g Net <strong>Value</strong><br />
Net <strong>Value</strong> / <strong>Value</strong> Destruction<br />
Source: HMC analysis based on <strong>in</strong>terviews with <strong>in</strong>vestors<br />
Note: The cost is calculated as <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> project schedules and not as price <strong>in</strong>creases. This sav<strong>in</strong>g is already added to <strong>the</strong> base case and it is assumed<br />
developers will not experience <strong>the</strong>se sav<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
22
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Aborig<strong>in</strong>al projects could <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong>ir IRR by 0.3% by reduc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>the</strong> expected project delays<br />
Potential <strong>Value</strong>:<br />
0.3% <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
<strong>in</strong> IRR<br />
Aborig<strong>in</strong>al IRR Sensitivity (at 30% equity) to Capital Costs [2]<br />
Assum<strong>in</strong>g no Capex <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
Assum<strong>in</strong>g a 2.5% Capex <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
11.35%<br />
10.95%<br />
11.30%<br />
11.25%<br />
11.20%<br />
11.15%<br />
1,510<br />
1,481<br />
10.90%<br />
10.85%<br />
10.80%<br />
1,389<br />
1,368<br />
IRR<br />
11.10%<br />
11.05%<br />
11.00%<br />
10.95%<br />
10.90%<br />
Target Return<br />
1,433<br />
IRR<br />
10.75%<br />
10.70%<br />
10.65%<br />
10.60%<br />
1,320<br />
10.85%<br />
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Delay (yrs)<br />
Note:<br />
[1] The value potential <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> aborig<strong>in</strong>al adder is not cumulative and should not be added to <strong>the</strong> base case.<br />
[2] Assum<strong>in</strong>g a 30% mean aborig<strong>in</strong>al equity stake modelled around a distribution.<br />
[3] It is assumed only 25% of FIT eligible projects have an aborig<strong>in</strong>al equity participation.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
10.55%<br />
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5<br />
Delays (yrs)<br />
NPV ($Million)<br />
23
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Potential procurement sav<strong>in</strong>gs will occur if <strong>the</strong> risk mitigation<br />
measures can be undertaken and lock-<strong>in</strong> life cycle sav<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />
for all sectors:<br />
Up to $1bn<br />
Project Execution – Effect of Strategic Sourc<strong>in</strong>g (Base Case)<br />
Total Net <strong>Value</strong> ($ Million)<br />
7,000<br />
6,000<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
4,496<br />
1,521<br />
6,017<br />
102<br />
100<br />
200<br />
Widely differ<strong>in</strong>g<br />
estimates exist<br />
600<br />
5,000<br />
0<br />
Base Case Net<br />
<strong>Value</strong><br />
Strategic<br />
Sourc<strong>in</strong>g Effect<br />
Base Case +<br />
Capital Sav<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Inspection<br />
Costs<br />
Expedit<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Costs<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Mitigation<br />
Costs<br />
Operat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Output Decl<strong>in</strong>e<br />
Net <strong>Value</strong><br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
<strong>Value</strong> Breakdown<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
24
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Manag<strong>in</strong>g efficiency is critical as a cost creep of 2.3 cents/kWh (16.7% of <strong>the</strong><br />
FIT) <strong>in</strong> w<strong>in</strong>d will make <strong>the</strong> technology unviable<br />
% to lower <strong>Feed</strong>-<strong>in</strong> <strong>Tariff</strong> before <strong>Value</strong> is Destroyed<br />
22.5<br />
Hydro<br />
Option 1 – Secure<br />
Capacity Factor to<br />
guarantee “marg<strong>in</strong>”<br />
16.7<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d<br />
15.9<br />
Solar PV<br />
Option 2 – Lower Opex<br />
to <strong>in</strong>crease “marg<strong>in</strong>”<br />
14.8<br />
Bio Energy<br />
% Before <strong>Value</strong> is Destroyed<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note: [1] FIT sensitivity values care calculated us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Hatch</strong>’s most likely estimates for all o<strong>the</strong>r variables.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
25
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Investors need to be more focused on captur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> correct<br />
sites/technology comb<strong>in</strong>ations for Bio-Energy facilities<br />
Potential <strong>Value</strong>:<br />
3.44% <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
<strong>in</strong> IRR<br />
Develop<strong>in</strong>g a Site Selection Strategy<br />
Outside Developer’s Control<br />
With<strong>in</strong> Developer’s Control<br />
Expected Capacity Factor<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
Solar Ground<br />
0%<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
All W<strong>in</strong>ners - Most Site/technology<br />
comb<strong>in</strong>ations will create value<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d Offshore<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d Onshore<br />
Most Site/technology<br />
comb<strong>in</strong>ations will create<br />
relatively less value<br />
Solar PV<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%<br />
Range <strong>in</strong> Capacity Factors (Difference between m<strong>in</strong>imum and maximum)<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
Note:<br />
Size of <strong>the</strong> bubble is <strong>the</strong> Estimated Range <strong>in</strong> Permitt<strong>in</strong>g Delays (Difference between m<strong>in</strong>imum and maximum)<br />
This may not apply to LDCs who may have less options for site selection.<br />
Hydro<br />
Bio Energy (Av.)<br />
Pioneers W<strong>in</strong> – early entrants could<br />
capture <strong>the</strong> best comb<strong>in</strong>ations <strong>the</strong>reby<br />
leav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>efficient comb<strong>in</strong>ations to<br />
late entry participants<br />
Battleground – very few site/technology<br />
comb<strong>in</strong>ations which create value.<br />
26
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
There is some value to be created by squeez<strong>in</strong>g out operational<br />
efficiency <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> generat<strong>in</strong>g facilities<br />
Potential <strong>Value</strong>:<br />
$130m<br />
Sensitivity to <strong>the</strong> Base Case as Operat<strong>in</strong>g Costs Decrease<br />
4%<br />
126<br />
100<br />
3%<br />
Increase <strong>in</strong> value<br />
2%<br />
1%<br />
26<br />
49<br />
75<br />
0%<br />
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%<br />
Decrease <strong>in</strong> Opex<br />
Source: HMC Analysis<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
NPV ($Million) <strong>Value</strong> Created<br />
27
UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />
Solutions to <strong>the</strong> structural, project and <strong>in</strong>dividual barriers should be rolled-out<br />
by leverag<strong>in</strong>g two pr<strong>in</strong>ciples<br />
Enable Target: Recognize that renewables technology under <strong>the</strong> proposed regulation can generate significant<br />
value creation for LDC’s, renewables generators and transmitters. It is important for this “target” ($4.4bn) of value<br />
creation to be enhanced and secured with pend<strong>in</strong>g changes to regulations.<br />
Fur<strong>the</strong>r catalyse <strong>in</strong>dustry: The prov<strong>in</strong>cial government can catalyse <strong>the</strong> formation of a green sector by encourag<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> and research of an <strong>in</strong>tegrated portfolio of proven and emerg<strong>in</strong>g renewable technologies and<br />
plann<strong>in</strong>g tools.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
28
CONCLUSION<br />
We conclude by emphasiz<strong>in</strong>g that effectively manag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> structural and<br />
project barriers is possible and could unlock significant value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT<br />
Overview of Base Case Scenario for Renewable Generators<br />
3 Supply Comb<strong>in</strong>ations [2]<br />
$3.20bn – W<strong>in</strong>d Offshore/Solar PV<br />
$3.32bn – W<strong>in</strong>d Onshore<br />
Generation Opportunity to Create <strong>Value</strong><br />
3.44% IRR Increase – Select<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> right site and technology<br />
$444m <strong>Value</strong> [1] – Prevent<strong>in</strong>g Schedule Overruns<br />
Base Case – NPV Range<br />
Lower – Mean - High<br />
$1.7bn $3.2bn $4.8bn<br />
Base Case – IRR Range<br />
Lower – Mean - High<br />
9.2% 11% 12.9%<br />
$3.19bn – W<strong>in</strong>d Offshore<br />
IRR per Technology<br />
11.10% - W<strong>in</strong>d<br />
10.80% - Hydro<br />
10.40% - Solar<br />
13.70% - Bio Energy<br />
0.3% IRR Increase – Reduc<strong>in</strong>g Aborig<strong>in</strong>al Project Delays<br />
$1bn <strong>Value</strong> Increase<br />
– Strategic Sourc<strong>in</strong>g of equipment<br />
$130m <strong>Value</strong> Increase – Reduc<strong>in</strong>g Opex by 5%<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d Sensitivities<br />
Offshore Cap. Factor lowered <strong>from</strong> 32%-28% destroys $1.3bn<br />
Onshore Cap. Factor lowered <strong>from</strong> 29%-25% destroys $1.2bn<br />
W<strong>in</strong>d Opex<br />
Opex <strong>in</strong>crease of 16.7% of <strong>the</strong> FIT results <strong>in</strong> no value creation<br />
Note:<br />
[1] The Base Case of $3,2bn assumes no schedule overruns. Therefore this value is already captured <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Base Case.<br />
[2] Three portfolio mixes have been modelled. Mix 1 assumes that over time, w<strong>in</strong>d offshore and solar PV become <strong>the</strong> dom<strong>in</strong>ant source, Mix 2 assumes w<strong>in</strong>d<br />
onshore rema<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> dom<strong>in</strong>ant source and Mix 3 assumes only w<strong>in</strong>d offshore displaces w<strong>in</strong>d onshore.<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
29
About Us<br />
<strong>Hatch</strong> Management Consult<strong>in</strong>g is <strong>the</strong> management consult<strong>in</strong>g practice<br />
of <strong>Hatch</strong>, a leader <strong>in</strong> technical and consult<strong>in</strong>g services to <strong>the</strong> global<br />
m<strong>in</strong>erals, energy and <strong>in</strong>frastructure sectors with more than 9,000<br />
professionals <strong>in</strong> more than 65 offices worldwide. <strong>Hatch</strong> Management<br />
Consult<strong>in</strong>g advises leaders with<strong>in</strong> or allied to <strong>the</strong> m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and metals,<br />
energy and <strong>in</strong>frastructure sectors. We are well positioned to deploy<br />
our global knowledge at a local level.<br />
We are unique <strong>in</strong> blend<strong>in</strong>g management expertise with deep sector<br />
and technical knowledge to help our clients develop an holistic<br />
solution to <strong>the</strong>ir issues.<br />
Sectors:<br />
Practices:<br />
Offices:<br />
M<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g & Metals, Infrastructure and Energy.<br />
Investment & Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Plann<strong>in</strong>g, Implementation,<br />
Innovation, Operations, Risk & F<strong>in</strong>ance, and Strategy.<br />
Beij<strong>in</strong>g, Brisbane, Johannesburg, London, Mississauga,<br />
Moscow, New Delhi, Oakville, Pittsburgh, Santiago,<br />
Sao Paulo.<br />
Copyright © 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> Management Consult<strong>in</strong>g. All rights reserved.<br />
30
<strong>Hatch</strong> Energy Group Contact Information<br />
Mergen Reddy<br />
Bob Griesbach<br />
Global Leader & Director: HMC<br />
Oakville, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 403 4413<br />
mreddy@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Director, Energy Consult<strong>in</strong>g: HMC<br />
Oakville, Canada<br />
Tel: + 1 905-403-4102<br />
bgriesbach@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
George Davies<br />
Dick Carryer<br />
Director & Senior Advisor: HMC<br />
Oakville, Canada<br />
Tel: +905 403 4154<br />
gdavies@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Manag<strong>in</strong>g Director: Transmission & Distribution<br />
Oakville, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 469 4903<br />
dcarryer@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
31
<strong>Hatch</strong> Energy Group Contact Information…(cont.)<br />
Richard Donnelly<br />
Alan O’Brien<br />
Director: Renewable Power<br />
Niagara Falls, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 357 6970<br />
rdonnelly@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Global Manag<strong>in</strong>g Director: Renewable Power<br />
Niagara Falls, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 357 6993<br />
aobrien@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Alex Stickler<br />
Ivor Shaw<br />
Director: Solar Power<br />
Oakville, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 403 3388<br />
astickler@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Manager: Renewable Power<br />
Niagara Falls, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 374 5226<br />
ishaw@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
32
<strong>Hatch</strong> Energy Group Contact Information…(cont.)<br />
Rory Hynes<br />
Glen Holden<br />
Director: Thermal Power<br />
Oakville, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 469 3402 ext. 3198<br />
rhynes@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Electrical Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Lead: Renewable Power<br />
Niagara Falls, Canada<br />
Tel: + 1 357 6976<br />
gholden@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Kimberley Arnold<br />
Manager - Environmental Services, Renewable<br />
Power<br />
Niagara Falls, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 374 0701 ext. 5318<br />
karnold@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
33
Contact Information for <strong>the</strong> Project Team<br />
Karl Pearce<br />
Megan MacLeod<br />
Case Leader<br />
Toronto, Canada<br />
Tel: +1 905 403 3712<br />
kpearce@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Consult<strong>in</strong>g Analyst: HMC<br />
Toronto, Canada<br />
Tel: +905 403 4200 ext 2816<br />
mmacleod@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
Montana Chen<br />
Consultant, HMC<br />
Toronto, Canada<br />
Tel: +905 403 3841<br />
mchen@hatch.ca<br />
www.hatch.ca<br />
<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />
© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />
34