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<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Feed</strong>-<strong>in</strong> <strong>Tariff</strong><br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

Executive Summary<br />

October 30 th , 2009<br />

Energy Practice


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

The presentation will outl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> key f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> report which addresses<br />

three questions<br />

3 Primary Questions <strong>the</strong> Study Will Address<br />

Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Case<br />

(Why should we do<br />

this as a utility, power<br />

generator or <strong>in</strong>vestor?)<br />

Integration Issues<br />

(What are <strong>the</strong> costs<br />

and risks <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegrat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

renewables?)<br />

Project Execution<br />

Issues<br />

(How will we execute<br />

<strong>the</strong> projects to<br />

overcome <strong>the</strong> risks?)<br />

• What is <strong>the</strong> potential total NPV-positive bus<strong>in</strong>ess case to be generated for utilities<br />

and power generators <strong>in</strong> respond<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act?<br />

• What drives this value and how can it be maximized?<br />

• What is <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestment required to create this value?<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> operational <strong>in</strong>terferences and costs associated with own<strong>in</strong>g and<br />

operat<strong>in</strong>g a renewable facility, expand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> electricity distribution assets <strong>in</strong> order<br />

to connect renewable facilities and to implement advanced connectivity (sometimes<br />

called <strong>the</strong> “Smart Grid”) and enhance and expand transmission assets?<br />

• What is <strong>the</strong> economic impact of <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegration issues?<br />

• What are <strong>the</strong> execution problems to leverage <strong>the</strong> GEA to deliver projects on-time<br />

and with<strong>in</strong> budget while meet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> operational targets?<br />

• What is <strong>the</strong> economic impact of <strong>the</strong>se problems?<br />

• What execution practices can be implemented <strong>in</strong> order to enhance value?<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

2


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

The act has <strong>the</strong> potential to create significant value for LDC’s [1] , transmitters and<br />

renewable generators provided <strong>the</strong> barriers to implementation are removed<br />

Recognise Significant value: At least $4.5bn (2009 Canadian Dollars) of value is available to be captured by<br />

LDC’s, renewable generators and transmitters only. Equal, yet not necessarily additive, to approximately 1% of<br />

<strong>Ontario</strong>’s GDP.<br />

Positive Sector Impact [2] : In <strong>the</strong> base case, value is created and <strong>the</strong> returns broadly match <strong>in</strong>vestor expectations<br />

while <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g productivity. The net cash-flow-at-risk <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> generat<strong>in</strong>g sector decreases.<br />

Def<strong>in</strong>e Critical Path: A key step is develop<strong>in</strong>g an implementation plan which can highlight <strong>the</strong> critical path to<br />

remove structural barriers and coord<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g stakeholders around this plan. Forge greater alignment between <strong>the</strong><br />

supply-side, renewable generators, utilities, regulators, government agencies, manufacturers, and energy<br />

consumers. Part of unlock<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> market implies creat<strong>in</strong>g a manufactur<strong>in</strong>g supply base which can cost-effectively<br />

serve <strong>the</strong> generators<br />

Adapt & Ref<strong>in</strong>e: The stakeholders govern<strong>in</strong>g, manag<strong>in</strong>g and participat<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> electricity network need to have<br />

<strong>the</strong>ir roles ref<strong>in</strong>ed, and codes and standards agreed to manage <strong>the</strong> changes.<br />

Open Market: The value h<strong>in</strong>ges on effectively address<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> structural (enabl<strong>in</strong>g) barriers which can open <strong>the</strong><br />

market for <strong>in</strong>vestment.<br />

Play to W<strong>in</strong>: There are project execution challenges, as well as opportunities to <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> value of <strong>the</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />

case.<br />

Note:<br />

[1] Local Distribution Company<br />

[2] The impact is positive for value creation, returns and productivity only for <strong>the</strong> renewable generation and, LDC and Transmission asset based <strong>in</strong>creases directly a<br />

consequence of <strong>the</strong> FIT programme. The risk reduction applies to <strong>the</strong> entire generation sector beyond renewables. Socio-economic impact is excluded <strong>in</strong> this study.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

3


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

$4.5bn of value can be created for <strong>the</strong> three sectors if <strong>the</strong> OPA IPSP [1]<br />

projections of 16,084 MW renewable <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity is achieved by 2025<br />

Total Net <strong>Value</strong> under <strong>the</strong> different scenarios [1]<br />

Total Net <strong>Value</strong> ($ Million)<br />

7,000<br />

6,000<br />

5,000<br />

4,000<br />

3,000<br />

2,000<br />

1,000<br />

0<br />

3.3%<br />

744<br />

566<br />

3,186<br />

3,304<br />

3,185<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d On Shore<br />

rema<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong><br />

primary supply<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d Off Shore<br />

and Solar PV take<br />

off at <strong>the</strong> expense<br />

of W<strong>in</strong>d On<br />

Shore<br />

1,022<br />

534<br />

5,020<br />

615<br />

356<br />

Transmission Utilities<br />

LDCs<br />

Renewable Generators<br />

Base Case High Case Low Case<br />

Scenarios<br />

CAGR Renewable Installed Capacity<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

[1] The new transmission directive has been analysed seperately. The IPSP was selected as <strong>the</strong>re was more data available at <strong>the</strong> time of <strong>the</strong> study. The<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> differences <strong>Value</strong> between <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> <strong>the</strong> Energy IPSP and Act Tx Directive are not significant for <strong>the</strong> purposes of <strong>the</strong> study.<br />

© [2] 2009 To <strong>Hatch</strong> connect - All rights eligible reserved renewable facilities <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> grid.<br />

[3] All scenarios assumed Mix 1: “W<strong>in</strong>d Off-Shore takes off <strong>in</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong>” and <strong>in</strong>crementally <strong>in</strong>creases to 65% of <strong>the</strong> renewables <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity by<br />

4<br />

2027.<br />

5.8%<br />

1.5%


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

If scale is reached and <strong>the</strong> FIT is ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong>ed, productive value can be created <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> LDC, transmission and renewable generation sectors<br />

Growth <strong>in</strong> Net <strong>Value</strong> vs Growth <strong>in</strong> Installed Capacity<br />

Temporary Renewables<br />

Growth:<br />

• Slow ris<strong>in</strong>g<br />

capacity <strong>in</strong><br />

unsusta<strong>in</strong>able and<br />

shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g sector<br />

Decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g Productivity<br />

<strong>in</strong> Shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Market:<br />

• Shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong><br />

value greater<br />

than shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong><br />

renewables<br />

capacity<br />

Unsusta<strong>in</strong>able Renewables Growth:<br />

• Fast ris<strong>in</strong>g capacity <strong>in</strong><br />

shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g sector<br />

Growth (CAGR) <strong>in</strong> Renewable<br />

Installed Capacity (%)<br />

+<br />

-<br />

Ris<strong>in</strong>g Productivity <strong>in</strong> Shr<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g Market:<br />

• Shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong> value less than shr<strong>in</strong>kage <strong>in</strong><br />

renewables capacity<br />

0<br />

-<br />

5<br />

8<br />

6<br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum Case<br />

7<br />

0<br />

2<br />

4<br />

Growth <strong>in</strong> Net <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong><br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum Case Scenario (%)<br />

Renewables Shortage:<br />

• <strong>Value</strong> expand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> this<br />

quadrant, but at a slower rate<br />

than renewables capacity<br />

Base Case<br />

High Case<br />

1<br />

3<br />

Susta<strong>in</strong>able Growth<br />

“Sweet Spot”:<br />

• Expand<strong>in</strong>g<br />

productive sectors<br />

Increas<strong>in</strong>g Productivity<br />

and Growth:<br />

• Growth <strong>in</strong> value per<br />

sector is occurr<strong>in</strong>g,<br />

but <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity<br />

is decl<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />

+<br />

Incentivisation Excess:<br />

• <strong>Value</strong> per sector is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g rapidly despite<br />

stagnant growth <strong>in</strong> renewable capacity<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

Key:<br />

Most attractive<br />

Least Attractive<br />

1<br />

8<br />

5


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

In addition to creat<strong>in</strong>g productive value, renewables will also reduce <strong>the</strong> total<br />

f<strong>in</strong>ancial risk of <strong>the</strong> total generation sector (renewables and non- renewables)<br />

Risk Profile Changes as Renewables are Increased<br />

Return (After-Tax Unlevered IRR/ Energy<br />

Produced)<br />

10<br />

9<br />

8<br />

7<br />

6<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

1<br />

Mix with Base Case (2027)<br />

% Nuclear 58.1%<br />

% Hydro 32.0%<br />

% Gas 6.8%<br />

% W<strong>in</strong>d 1.7%<br />

% O<strong>the</strong>r 1.4%<br />

Current Mix (Energy Produced)<br />

% Nuclear 50.0%<br />

% Hydro 25.7%<br />

% Coal 16.8%<br />

% Gas 6.8%<br />

% W<strong>in</strong>d 0.5%<br />

% O<strong>the</strong>r 0.2%<br />

0<br />

5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00<br />

% Cash-flow-at-risk (Risk a.k.a Standard Deviation of Cash Flows)<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

[1] The analyses assumes IRR is a function of <strong>the</strong> operat<strong>in</strong>g constra<strong>in</strong>ts.<br />

[2] It is assumed <strong>in</strong>creased nuclear output will replace some of <strong>the</strong> coal capacity losses. The rest will be replaced by <strong>the</strong> FIT eligible technologies and <strong>the</strong><br />

difference by large Hydro. An assumption is made that Large Hydro receives <strong>the</strong> same returns as FIT eligible hydro facilities


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Generators could capture 71% ($3.2bn) of <strong>the</strong> total value and present <strong>the</strong><br />

largest opportunity to maximise value<br />

Renewable Generators – <strong>Value</strong> Breakdown (Base Case)<br />

Total <strong>Value</strong> and Costs ($ Million)<br />

20,000<br />

18,000<br />

16,000<br />

14,000<br />

12,000<br />

10,000<br />

8,000<br />

6,000<br />

4,000<br />

2,000<br />

11,385<br />

5,789<br />

17,174<br />

1,432<br />

10,770<br />

1,570<br />

3,402<br />

216<br />

3,186<br />

0<br />

Revenues<br />

Net<br />

Term<strong>in</strong>al<br />

<strong>Value</strong><br />

Total <strong>Value</strong><br />

Creation<br />

OpEx CapEx Taxes Net <strong>Value</strong> LDC<br />

Generation<br />

Net <strong>Value</strong><br />

(excl. LDC<br />

Generation)<br />

<strong>Value</strong> Breakdown<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note: The term<strong>in</strong>al value represents <strong>the</strong> total value of <strong>the</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>uous operation beyond 2027 assum<strong>in</strong>g no additional growth and capital <strong>in</strong>vestment beyond<br />

ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g exist<strong>in</strong>g capacity <strong>in</strong> 2027.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

7


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Generators could earn <strong>the</strong> targeted 11% After-Tax Unlevered IRR under <strong>the</strong><br />

conservative assumptions used<br />

After-Tax Unlevered IRR <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Base Case<br />

Renewable Generators<br />

Bio Energy (Weighted Average)<br />

11.0<br />

13.7<br />

Transmitters<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d (Weighted Average)<br />

10.4<br />

11.1<br />

LDC – Dx and Gx [1]<br />

Hydro<br />

10.3<br />

10.8<br />

LDC – Distribution Only<br />

Solar PV (Weighted Average)<br />

9.9<br />

10.4<br />

After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />

After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note: [1] Assumes half of <strong>Ontario</strong>’s 91 LDC’s embark on renewable generation (


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

The risks <strong>in</strong> captur<strong>in</strong>g this return, however, could lead to 40% ($1.4bn) of <strong>the</strong><br />

potential value unrealised<br />

Generators Distribution Measur<strong>in</strong>g – Net <strong>Value</strong> of <strong>the</strong> Simulated Created Cash-Flow-at-Risk IRR for Renewable [1] for Generators Renewable Generators – After-Tax Generators (Base Unlevered Case) IRR<br />

Expected <strong>Value</strong><br />

Expected After-Tax Unlevered IRR<br />

3.2<br />

11<br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />

1.7<br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential After-Tax Unlevered IRR<br />

9.2<br />

Cash Flow at Risk<br />

1.5<br />

IRR at Risk<br />

1.8<br />

Potential Upside<br />

1.6<br />

Potential Upside<br />

1.9<br />

Net <strong>Value</strong> Created ($bn) After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

[1] Based on a simulation analyses of total value and return consider<strong>in</strong>g a best, most likely and worst case parameter for each model variable.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

9


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

For LDCs, <strong>the</strong> worst case value with generation is better than <strong>the</strong> expected<br />

value without generation, yet at <strong>the</strong> risk of obta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g a lower IRR<br />

LDC – Net <strong>Value</strong> Created<br />

$bn<br />

LDC – After-Tax Unlevered IRR<br />

%<br />

Expected<br />

<strong>Value</strong><br />

0.35<br />

0.56<br />

Expected IRR<br />

10.30<br />

9.87<br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum<br />

Potential<br />

<strong>Value</strong><br />

0.34<br />

0.42<br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum<br />

Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />

9.74<br />

9.85<br />

Cash-flow-atrisk<br />

0.01<br />

0.14<br />

Potential Upside:<br />

Dx & Gx: 0.24<br />

Dx Only: 0.01<br />

Dx & Gx<br />

Dx Only<br />

IRR-at-risk<br />

0.56<br />

0.02<br />

Potential Upside:<br />

Dx & Gx: 0.63%<br />

Dx Only: 0.03%<br />

Dx & Gx<br />

Dx Only<br />

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50<br />

0 4 8 12<br />

Billion<br />

%<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

[1] Based on a simulation analyses of total value and return consider<strong>in</strong>g a best, most likely and worst case parameter for each model variable.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

10


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Transmission utilities have <strong>the</strong> least to lose given <strong>the</strong>ir regulated return<br />

Transmitters Distribution – Net <strong>Value</strong> of Simulated Created IRR for Renewable Transmitters Generators – After-Tax (Base Unlevered Case) IRR<br />

Expected <strong>Value</strong><br />

Expected Tax Unlevered IRR<br />

0.74<br />

10.4<br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />

M<strong>in</strong>imum Potential Tax Unlevered IRR<br />

0.68<br />

10.34<br />

Cash Flow at Risk<br />

0.07<br />

Potential Upside<br />

0.09<br />

IRR at Risk<br />

0.06<br />

Potential Upside<br />

0.07<br />

Net <strong>Value</strong> Created ($bn) After-Tax Unlevered IRR (%)<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

[1] Based on a simulation analyses of total value and return consider<strong>in</strong>g a best, most likely and worst case parameter for each model variable.\<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

11


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Despite <strong>the</strong> potential value and <strong>in</strong>terest expressed <strong>the</strong>re had been few <strong>Ontario</strong><br />

orders placed for equipment with solar manufacturers <strong>in</strong> 2009<br />

2008 Order Book 2009 Order Book (2 Quarters)<br />

Modules Ordered and Delivered <strong>in</strong> 2008 (%) Modules Ordered and Planned for delivery <strong>in</strong> 2009 (%)<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

Middle East<br />

Spa<strong>in</strong><br />

USA<br />

Germany<br />

Germany<br />

Spa<strong>in</strong><br />

Source: Interviews with <strong>the</strong> 11 largest solar module manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a, 4 w<strong>in</strong>d manufacturers <strong>in</strong> India, 3 solar manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Germany and 1 US supplier.<br />

HMC Analysis.<br />

Note: Manufacturers <strong>in</strong>terviewed only manufacture-to-order and have based <strong>the</strong>se estimates on actual orders as of 2 September 2009.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

12


BUSINESS CASE: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

However, s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> announcements <strong>in</strong> late September, <strong>the</strong>re has been an<br />

<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> committed capital<br />

2009 Order Book (2 Quarters) 2009 Order Book (2 Quarters)<br />

Modules Ordered and Planned for delivery <strong>in</strong> 2009 (%)<br />

As of 2 September 2009<br />

Middle East<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

Modules Ordered and Planned for delivery <strong>in</strong> 2009 (%)<br />

As of 10 October 2009<br />

<strong>Ontario</strong><br />

Middle East<br />

Ch<strong>in</strong>a<br />

USA<br />

Germany<br />

USA<br />

Germany<br />

Spa<strong>in</strong><br />

Spa<strong>in</strong><br />

Source: Interviews with <strong>the</strong> 11 largest solar module manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Ch<strong>in</strong>a, 4 w<strong>in</strong>d manufacturers <strong>in</strong> India, 3 solar manufacturers <strong>in</strong> Germany and 1 US supplier.<br />

HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

Manufacturers <strong>in</strong>terviewed only manufacture-to-order and have based <strong>the</strong>se estimates on actual orders as of 2 September 2009.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

13


BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Structural Barriers: Comprise <strong>in</strong>itiatives, currently underway, which must be<br />

completed to open <strong>the</strong> “market” for <strong>in</strong>vestment<br />

Structural Barriers<br />

• The critical path to successfully<br />

unlock value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> act is<br />

fragmented amongst numerous<br />

stakeholders.<br />

• No one group, technology,<br />

region or sector by itself can<br />

capture <strong>the</strong> opportunity prov<strong>in</strong>ce<br />

wide.<br />

Summary of Structural Barriers<br />

Barrier Primary Secondary<br />

System Wide • Fragmentation of critical path<br />

X<br />

• Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> regulation, codes and standards X<br />

• Length of permitt<strong>in</strong>g process<br />

X<br />

• Lack of a suitable precedent<br />

X<br />

• System-wide implementation plan<br />

X<br />

• Several critical steps reside <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

doma<strong>in</strong> of entities who do not<br />

directly benefit <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> act.<br />

• It is not clear if complet<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>se<br />

critical steps is a priority for<br />

everyone.<br />

LDC’s /<br />

Transmitters /<br />

Generators<br />

• Enabl<strong>in</strong>g facilities/structures <strong>in</strong> transition<br />

• Will a <strong>in</strong>stalled capacity renewables cap be<br />

imposed?<br />

• Prioritis<strong>in</strong>g CDM<br />

X<br />

X<br />

X<br />

Industrial<br />

Supply Side<br />

• Cost <strong>in</strong>creases<br />

• How will <strong>the</strong> supply side be <strong>in</strong>centivized<br />

X<br />

X<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

14


BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Barrier: Mov<strong>in</strong>g local production to <strong>Ontario</strong> would create employment, yet will<br />

have an uncerta<strong>in</strong> impact on <strong>the</strong> costs and returns of generators<br />

Base Case Sensitivity to Changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Material & Equipment Costs [1]<br />

15%<br />

477<br />

382<br />

Decrease <strong>in</strong> value<br />

10%<br />

5%<br />

191<br />

286<br />

95<br />

0%<br />

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%<br />

Increase <strong>in</strong> Material & Equipment Costs<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note: [1] The local content sourc<strong>in</strong>g encourages only specific equipment to be sourced <strong>from</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong>.<br />

The figure above shows a general <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> equipment costs<br />

NPV ($Million) <strong>Value</strong> destroyed<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

15


BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Project Barriers: Potential developers have <strong>in</strong>complete <strong>in</strong>formation to compare<br />

<strong>the</strong> risk and return on <strong>in</strong>vestments and need to ensure effective delivery<br />

Project Barriers<br />

• Most <strong>in</strong>vestors are apprehensive<br />

about lock<strong>in</strong>g-<strong>in</strong> value dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong><br />

actual project development<br />

stage.<br />

• Most potential <strong>in</strong>vestors are<br />

concerned that a cap will be<br />

imposed on renewables, if<br />

demand is high.<br />

Bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />

Plann<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Summary of Project Barriers<br />

Barrier Primary Secondary<br />

• Ambiguity about a cap on renewables<br />

X<br />

• Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty about metrics for <strong>the</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess case X<br />

• Identify<strong>in</strong>g entry po<strong>in</strong>ts <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> market<br />

X<br />

• Permitt<strong>in</strong>g delays<br />

X<br />

• Contrast<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> risk/return trade-off<br />

X<br />

• There are widely differ<strong>in</strong>g<br />

estimates and assumptions used<br />

to calculate <strong>the</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess cases.<br />

• Fund<strong>in</strong>g<br />

• CDM versus Generation<br />

X<br />

X<br />

Project<br />

Execution<br />

• M<strong>in</strong>imis<strong>in</strong>g risk of execution X<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

16


BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Barrier: There is still uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty as to whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong>re will be a cap on<br />

renewables or if <strong>the</strong> planned transmission l<strong>in</strong>es will be completed as announced<br />

“Specifically show us<br />

where it says <strong>the</strong>re will not<br />

be a cap imposed on<br />

renewables <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> future.<br />

We have not seen this [as]<br />

it is a major consideration<br />

before mak<strong>in</strong>g any large<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments”<br />

“What happens if <strong>the</strong><br />

transmission l<strong>in</strong>es are<br />

delayed (or) not built <strong>in</strong><br />

time? There is angst that<br />

this major piece will be<br />

delayed”<br />

“We only <strong>in</strong>tend mak<strong>in</strong>g 4<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestments so <strong>the</strong> cap is<br />

not a concern to us <strong>in</strong> any<br />

way”<br />

“We th<strong>in</strong>k demand will be<br />

so high that <strong>the</strong><br />

government [will] have to<br />

step <strong>in</strong> [and] impose a cap<br />

on renewables”<br />

“The most important<br />

concern for our board<br />

would be <strong>the</strong> cap on<br />

renewables”<br />

“Who will pay for <strong>the</strong><br />

transmission l<strong>in</strong>es?”<br />

Source: Interviews with LDC’s and <strong>in</strong>vestor groups<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

17


BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Individual Barriers: Embedded generation on <strong>the</strong> scale recommended is new and<br />

only moderately appeal<strong>in</strong>g due to long payback periods<br />

Individual Barriers<br />

Summary of Individual Barriers<br />

• Applies primarily to Rooftop Solar<br />

Barrier Primary Secondary<br />

PV and Ground mounted Solar PV<br />

ga<strong>in</strong> must significantly outweigh<br />

[3] William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser, “Status Quo Bias <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>the</strong> loss – loss aversion [2]. Decision Mak<strong>in</strong>g”, Journal of Risk and Uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty, 1988<br />

Facilities of a smaller size. Individual Bias • Communication and explanation of <strong>the</strong> benefits X<br />

• The payback period may extend<br />

• Status Quo Bias [3] (recession driven)<br />

X<br />

beyond <strong>the</strong> period of actual<br />

home/site ownership <strong>the</strong>reby<br />

• Hyperbolic discount<strong>in</strong>g<br />

X<br />

reduc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> benefits/value<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestors receive.<br />

• Consumers tend to apply higher<br />

discount rates to <strong>in</strong>vestments<br />

which have longer payback<br />

• Loss aversion<br />

X<br />

periods – hyperbolic discount<strong>in</strong>g [1].<br />

Source: [1] George A<strong>in</strong>slie. “Specious Reward: A Behavioural Theory of<br />

Impulsiveness and Impulse Control,” Psychological Bullet<strong>in</strong>, 1975<br />

• When consumers need to <strong>in</strong>cur a<br />

[2] Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of<br />

cost to receive a potential ga<strong>in</strong>, <strong>the</strong><br />

Decision Under Risk”, Econometrica, 1979<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

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18


BARRIERS: UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Barrier: Long payback periods discourage <strong>the</strong> use of technologies where <strong>the</strong><br />

owner cannot capture <strong>the</strong> full duration of benefits before ownership transfer<br />

Benefit Capture for Rooftop Mounted Solar PV<br />

Implications<br />

7.2<br />

11.4<br />

Average payback period for Rooftop<br />

Mounted Solar PV<br />

Average length of time before <strong>Ontario</strong><br />

residents sell <strong>the</strong>ir homes [1]<br />

<strong>Ontario</strong> residents may be<br />

unwill<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>in</strong>cur a large<br />

upfront capital <strong>in</strong>vestment with a<br />

long payback period. Recent<br />

surveys <strong>in</strong> London (UK) [2] ,<br />

however, <strong>in</strong>dicate that<br />

homeowners may pay more for<br />

homes with solar facilities.<br />

With <strong>the</strong> market uncerta<strong>in</strong>ties,<br />

<strong>Ontario</strong> residents may not<br />

change <strong>the</strong>ir homes as rapidly as<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> last 4 years.<br />

$ Million<br />

Source:<br />

[1] Fil<strong>in</strong>gs with <strong>the</strong> <strong>Ontario</strong> Canadian Hous<strong>in</strong>g and Renewal Association<br />

[2] Energy Sav<strong>in</strong>g Trust (http://www.est.org.uk/hous<strong>in</strong>gbuild<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

19


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

The structural barriers can be overcome by focus<strong>in</strong>g on six <strong>the</strong>mes of solutions<br />

Complete a sector wide implementation plan for <strong>the</strong> critical path and secondary items.<br />

Better communication, <strong>in</strong>formation and education.<br />

Reduce uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> act and regulation.<br />

F<strong>in</strong>alise <strong>the</strong> codes and standards.<br />

Develop a supply-side <strong>in</strong>dustrial plan to <strong>in</strong>cite production.<br />

Adapt and ref<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong> roles of <strong>the</strong> players <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> electricity sector.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

20


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

When <strong>the</strong> barriers to discourage projects are removed, execution challenges<br />

should be addressed to ensure that value is unlocked<br />

Proper site and technology selection which impacts capacity factors, efficiencies and delays due to permitt<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

Effectively design<strong>in</strong>g and build<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> facilities.<br />

Develop<strong>in</strong>g a strategic sourc<strong>in</strong>g strategy to lock-<strong>in</strong> supply and lower costs.<br />

Maximis<strong>in</strong>g value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> Aborig<strong>in</strong>al adder.<br />

Manag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tegration risks.<br />

Improv<strong>in</strong>g operat<strong>in</strong>g performance of <strong>the</strong> facilities to capture more value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

21


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Prevent<strong>in</strong>g project delivery problems is a process that starts before<br />

<strong>the</strong> actual project commences<br />

Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />

for Generators:<br />

$444m<br />

Project Execution – Effect of Typical Schedule Overruns (Base Case)<br />

Total Net <strong>Value</strong> ($ Million)<br />

5,000<br />

4,500<br />

4,000<br />

3,500<br />

3,000<br />

2,500<br />

2,000<br />

1,500<br />

1,000<br />

4,496<br />

444<br />

111<br />

159<br />

3,782<br />

500<br />

0<br />

Base Case Net <strong>Value</strong><br />

Renewable Generation<br />

Projects Overruns<br />

Distribution Projects<br />

Overruns<br />

Transmission Projects<br />

Overruns<br />

Result<strong>in</strong>g Net <strong>Value</strong><br />

Net <strong>Value</strong> / <strong>Value</strong> Destruction<br />

Source: HMC analysis based on <strong>in</strong>terviews with <strong>in</strong>vestors<br />

Note: The cost is calculated as <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> project schedules and not as price <strong>in</strong>creases. This sav<strong>in</strong>g is already added to <strong>the</strong> base case and it is assumed<br />

developers will not experience <strong>the</strong>se sav<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

22


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Aborig<strong>in</strong>al projects could <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong>ir IRR by 0.3% by reduc<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>the</strong> expected project delays<br />

Potential <strong>Value</strong>:<br />

0.3% <strong>in</strong>crease<br />

<strong>in</strong> IRR<br />

Aborig<strong>in</strong>al IRR Sensitivity (at 30% equity) to Capital Costs [2]<br />

Assum<strong>in</strong>g no Capex <strong>in</strong>crease<br />

Assum<strong>in</strong>g a 2.5% Capex <strong>in</strong>crease<br />

11.35%<br />

10.95%<br />

11.30%<br />

11.25%<br />

11.20%<br />

11.15%<br />

1,510<br />

1,481<br />

10.90%<br />

10.85%<br />

10.80%<br />

1,389<br />

1,368<br />

IRR<br />

11.10%<br />

11.05%<br />

11.00%<br />

10.95%<br />

10.90%<br />

Target Return<br />

1,433<br />

IRR<br />

10.75%<br />

10.70%<br />

10.65%<br />

10.60%<br />

1,320<br />

10.85%<br />

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Delay (yrs)<br />

Note:<br />

[1] The value potential <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> aborig<strong>in</strong>al adder is not cumulative and should not be added to <strong>the</strong> base case.<br />

[2] Assum<strong>in</strong>g a 30% mean aborig<strong>in</strong>al equity stake modelled around a distribution.<br />

[3] It is assumed only 25% of FIT eligible projects have an aborig<strong>in</strong>al equity participation.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

10.55%<br />

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5<br />

Delays (yrs)<br />

NPV ($Million)<br />

23


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Potential procurement sav<strong>in</strong>gs will occur if <strong>the</strong> risk mitigation<br />

measures can be undertaken and lock-<strong>in</strong> life cycle sav<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

Potential <strong>Value</strong><br />

for all sectors:<br />

Up to $1bn<br />

Project Execution – Effect of Strategic Sourc<strong>in</strong>g (Base Case)<br />

Total Net <strong>Value</strong> ($ Million)<br />

7,000<br />

6,000<br />

5,000<br />

4,000<br />

3,000<br />

2,000<br />

1,000<br />

4,496<br />

1,521<br />

6,017<br />

102<br />

100<br />

200<br />

Widely differ<strong>in</strong>g<br />

estimates exist<br />

600<br />

5,000<br />

0<br />

Base Case Net<br />

<strong>Value</strong><br />

Strategic<br />

Sourc<strong>in</strong>g Effect<br />

Base Case +<br />

Capital Sav<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Inspection<br />

Costs<br />

Expedit<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Costs<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r<br />

Mitigation<br />

Costs<br />

Operat<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Output Decl<strong>in</strong>e<br />

Net <strong>Value</strong><br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

<strong>Value</strong> Breakdown<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

24


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Manag<strong>in</strong>g efficiency is critical as a cost creep of 2.3 cents/kWh (16.7% of <strong>the</strong><br />

FIT) <strong>in</strong> w<strong>in</strong>d will make <strong>the</strong> technology unviable<br />

% to lower <strong>Feed</strong>-<strong>in</strong> <strong>Tariff</strong> before <strong>Value</strong> is Destroyed<br />

22.5<br />

Hydro<br />

Option 1 – Secure<br />

Capacity Factor to<br />

guarantee “marg<strong>in</strong>”<br />

16.7<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d<br />

15.9<br />

Solar PV<br />

Option 2 – Lower Opex<br />

to <strong>in</strong>crease “marg<strong>in</strong>”<br />

14.8<br />

Bio Energy<br />

% Before <strong>Value</strong> is Destroyed<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note: [1] FIT sensitivity values care calculated us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Hatch</strong>’s most likely estimates for all o<strong>the</strong>r variables.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

25


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Investors need to be more focused on captur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> correct<br />

sites/technology comb<strong>in</strong>ations for Bio-Energy facilities<br />

Potential <strong>Value</strong>:<br />

3.44% <strong>in</strong>crease<br />

<strong>in</strong> IRR<br />

Develop<strong>in</strong>g a Site Selection Strategy<br />

Outside Developer’s Control<br />

With<strong>in</strong> Developer’s Control<br />

Expected Capacity Factor<br />

90%<br />

80%<br />

70%<br />

60%<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

Solar Ground<br />

0%<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

All W<strong>in</strong>ners - Most Site/technology<br />

comb<strong>in</strong>ations will create value<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d Offshore<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d Onshore<br />

Most Site/technology<br />

comb<strong>in</strong>ations will create<br />

relatively less value<br />

Solar PV<br />

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%<br />

Range <strong>in</strong> Capacity Factors (Difference between m<strong>in</strong>imum and maximum)<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

Note:<br />

Size of <strong>the</strong> bubble is <strong>the</strong> Estimated Range <strong>in</strong> Permitt<strong>in</strong>g Delays (Difference between m<strong>in</strong>imum and maximum)<br />

This may not apply to LDCs who may have less options for site selection.<br />

Hydro<br />

Bio Energy (Av.)<br />

Pioneers W<strong>in</strong> – early entrants could<br />

capture <strong>the</strong> best comb<strong>in</strong>ations <strong>the</strong>reby<br />

leav<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>efficient comb<strong>in</strong>ations to<br />

late entry participants<br />

Battleground – very few site/technology<br />

comb<strong>in</strong>ations which create value.<br />

26


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

There is some value to be created by squeez<strong>in</strong>g out operational<br />

efficiency <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> generat<strong>in</strong>g facilities<br />

Potential <strong>Value</strong>:<br />

$130m<br />

Sensitivity to <strong>the</strong> Base Case as Operat<strong>in</strong>g Costs Decrease<br />

4%<br />

126<br />

100<br />

3%<br />

Increase <strong>in</strong> value<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

26<br />

49<br />

75<br />

0%<br />

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%<br />

Decrease <strong>in</strong> Opex<br />

Source: HMC Analysis<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

NPV ($Million) <strong>Value</strong> Created<br />

27


UNLOCKING VALUE FROM THE FIT IN THE GREEN ENERGY ACT<br />

Solutions to <strong>the</strong> structural, project and <strong>in</strong>dividual barriers should be rolled-out<br />

by leverag<strong>in</strong>g two pr<strong>in</strong>ciples<br />

Enable Target: Recognize that renewables technology under <strong>the</strong> proposed regulation can generate significant<br />

value creation for LDC’s, renewables generators and transmitters. It is important for this “target” ($4.4bn) of value<br />

creation to be enhanced and secured with pend<strong>in</strong>g changes to regulations.<br />

Fur<strong>the</strong>r catalyse <strong>in</strong>dustry: The prov<strong>in</strong>cial government can catalyse <strong>the</strong> formation of a green sector by encourag<strong>in</strong>g<br />

<strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> and research of an <strong>in</strong>tegrated portfolio of proven and emerg<strong>in</strong>g renewable technologies and<br />

plann<strong>in</strong>g tools.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

28


CONCLUSION<br />

We conclude by emphasiz<strong>in</strong>g that effectively manag<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> structural and<br />

project barriers is possible and could unlock significant value <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT<br />

Overview of Base Case Scenario for Renewable Generators<br />

3 Supply Comb<strong>in</strong>ations [2]<br />

$3.20bn – W<strong>in</strong>d Offshore/Solar PV<br />

$3.32bn – W<strong>in</strong>d Onshore<br />

Generation Opportunity to Create <strong>Value</strong><br />

3.44% IRR Increase – Select<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> right site and technology<br />

$444m <strong>Value</strong> [1] – Prevent<strong>in</strong>g Schedule Overruns<br />

Base Case – NPV Range<br />

Lower – Mean - High<br />

$1.7bn $3.2bn $4.8bn<br />

Base Case – IRR Range<br />

Lower – Mean - High<br />

9.2% 11% 12.9%<br />

$3.19bn – W<strong>in</strong>d Offshore<br />

IRR per Technology<br />

11.10% - W<strong>in</strong>d<br />

10.80% - Hydro<br />

10.40% - Solar<br />

13.70% - Bio Energy<br />

0.3% IRR Increase – Reduc<strong>in</strong>g Aborig<strong>in</strong>al Project Delays<br />

$1bn <strong>Value</strong> Increase<br />

– Strategic Sourc<strong>in</strong>g of equipment<br />

$130m <strong>Value</strong> Increase – Reduc<strong>in</strong>g Opex by 5%<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d Sensitivities<br />

Offshore Cap. Factor lowered <strong>from</strong> 32%-28% destroys $1.3bn<br />

Onshore Cap. Factor lowered <strong>from</strong> 29%-25% destroys $1.2bn<br />

W<strong>in</strong>d Opex<br />

Opex <strong>in</strong>crease of 16.7% of <strong>the</strong> FIT results <strong>in</strong> no value creation<br />

Note:<br />

[1] The Base Case of $3,2bn assumes no schedule overruns. Therefore this value is already captured <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Base Case.<br />

[2] Three portfolio mixes have been modelled. Mix 1 assumes that over time, w<strong>in</strong>d offshore and solar PV become <strong>the</strong> dom<strong>in</strong>ant source, Mix 2 assumes w<strong>in</strong>d<br />

onshore rema<strong>in</strong>s <strong>the</strong> dom<strong>in</strong>ant source and Mix 3 assumes only w<strong>in</strong>d offshore displaces w<strong>in</strong>d onshore.<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

29


About Us<br />

<strong>Hatch</strong> Management Consult<strong>in</strong>g is <strong>the</strong> management consult<strong>in</strong>g practice<br />

of <strong>Hatch</strong>, a leader <strong>in</strong> technical and consult<strong>in</strong>g services to <strong>the</strong> global<br />

m<strong>in</strong>erals, energy and <strong>in</strong>frastructure sectors with more than 9,000<br />

professionals <strong>in</strong> more than 65 offices worldwide. <strong>Hatch</strong> Management<br />

Consult<strong>in</strong>g advises leaders with<strong>in</strong> or allied to <strong>the</strong> m<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g and metals,<br />

energy and <strong>in</strong>frastructure sectors. We are well positioned to deploy<br />

our global knowledge at a local level.<br />

We are unique <strong>in</strong> blend<strong>in</strong>g management expertise with deep sector<br />

and technical knowledge to help our clients develop an holistic<br />

solution to <strong>the</strong>ir issues.<br />

Sectors:<br />

Practices:<br />

Offices:<br />

M<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g & Metals, Infrastructure and Energy.<br />

Investment & Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Plann<strong>in</strong>g, Implementation,<br />

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Beij<strong>in</strong>g, Brisbane, Johannesburg, London, Mississauga,<br />

Moscow, New Delhi, Oakville, Pittsburgh, Santiago,<br />

Sao Paulo.<br />

Copyright © 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> Management Consult<strong>in</strong>g. All rights reserved.<br />

30


<strong>Hatch</strong> Energy Group Contact Information<br />

Mergen Reddy<br />

Bob Griesbach<br />

Global Leader & Director: HMC<br />

Oakville, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 403 4413<br />

mreddy@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Director, Energy Consult<strong>in</strong>g: HMC<br />

Oakville, Canada<br />

Tel: + 1 905-403-4102<br />

bgriesbach@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

George Davies<br />

Dick Carryer<br />

Director & Senior Advisor: HMC<br />

Oakville, Canada<br />

Tel: +905 403 4154<br />

gdavies@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Manag<strong>in</strong>g Director: Transmission & Distribution<br />

Oakville, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 469 4903<br />

dcarryer@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

31


<strong>Hatch</strong> Energy Group Contact Information…(cont.)<br />

Richard Donnelly<br />

Alan O’Brien<br />

Director: Renewable Power<br />

Niagara Falls, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 357 6970<br />

rdonnelly@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Global Manag<strong>in</strong>g Director: Renewable Power<br />

Niagara Falls, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 357 6993<br />

aobrien@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Alex Stickler<br />

Ivor Shaw<br />

Director: Solar Power<br />

Oakville, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 403 3388<br />

astickler@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Manager: Renewable Power<br />

Niagara Falls, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 374 5226<br />

ishaw@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

32


<strong>Hatch</strong> Energy Group Contact Information…(cont.)<br />

Rory Hynes<br />

Glen Holden<br />

Director: Thermal Power<br />

Oakville, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 469 3402 ext. 3198<br />

rhynes@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Electrical Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Lead: Renewable Power<br />

Niagara Falls, Canada<br />

Tel: + 1 357 6976<br />

gholden@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Kimberley Arnold<br />

Manager - Environmental Services, Renewable<br />

Power<br />

Niagara Falls, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 374 0701 ext. 5318<br />

karnold@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

33


Contact Information for <strong>the</strong> Project Team<br />

Karl Pearce<br />

Megan MacLeod<br />

Case Leader<br />

Toronto, Canada<br />

Tel: +1 905 403 3712<br />

kpearce@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Consult<strong>in</strong>g Analyst: HMC<br />

Toronto, Canada<br />

Tel: +905 403 4200 ext 2816<br />

mmacleod@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

Montana Chen<br />

Consultant, HMC<br />

Toronto, Canada<br />

Tel: +905 403 3841<br />

mchen@hatch.ca<br />

www.hatch.ca<br />

<strong>Unlock<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>Value</strong> <strong>from</strong> <strong>the</strong> FIT <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Green</strong> Energy Act<br />

© 2009 <strong>Hatch</strong> - All rights reserved<br />

34

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