2010 Annual Report - Interlochen Center for the Arts

Thinking Ahead for an Uncertain Future
Planning ahead is crucial for any organization in today’s world. Between 2005 and 2008, Interlochen
conducted a brand audit, a web communications review and an 18-month-long scenarios planning
project. These efforts positioned us to respond to the increasingly volatile environment of the last
two years, by helping us learn to manage the unpredictable.
The U.S. War College uses the term VUCA to help military and government leaders anticipate and
respond to global crises. The acronym stands for volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity;
it’s a method of assessing the unpredictable that sheds light on the past year.
Volatility: Recent years have brought a devastating national and global recession, multiple natural
disasters, climate change, a worldwide flu pandemic and an increasingly hostile political environment.
This volatility has created an atmosphere in which both public and private investment in the arts have
withered, causing substantial reductions in staff, programs and marketing at nonprofit organizations
across the nation.
Uncertainty: Approximately 25 percent of Interlochen students travel here from another country. Last
year, several Asian governments reacted to the H1N1 epidemic by banning foreign travel. The recession
continues to hurt many Interlochen families and prospective students. Uncertainty about the future
prevents people from making decisions about their investments in education, the arts, discretionary
spending and philanthropy.
Complexity: The world is interconnected in ways never imagined 83 years ago, and the challenges faced
by organizations today are increasingly complex. Decision making is compounded by highly polarized
attitudes and opinions, by the speed and intensity of communication, by significant increases in new
state and federal rules, and by an intensely litigious society.
Ambiguity: One by-product of the speed of communications technology is that people want to know the
outcomes of their actions immediately. In an increasingly complex, uncertain and volatile world, this is
an expectation that is difficult to fulfill. In the absence of clarity, many in today’s society are tending not
to commit, to wait for the one “clear” answer.
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