Regression-Discontinuity Design - Institute for Policy Research

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Cash and Counseling Demonstration Project • Treatment: Instead of Medicaid procuring home care and community services <strong>for</strong> you, you receive a fixed budget to allocate as you see fit. • Control: Status Quo. Medicaid agency procures services on your behalf. • Study population: disabled Medicaid recipients who volunteered to participate. Three states: Arkansas, Florida, New Jersey. • Key Outcomes: – Post‐Treatment Medicaid Expenditures – Number of Unpaid Home Care Workers • Results: – Treatment leads to higher Medicaid Expenditures – Treatment leads to a reductions in the use of unpaid home care workers
Our Purpose • Use experimental data as a causal benchmark • Trans<strong>for</strong>m the experimental data into RD and RD + non‐equivalent comparison group. (We’ll show you how.) – Compare benchmarks with RD extrapolations – Compare benchmarks with RD + comparison group extrapolations – Compare RD vs RD + comparison group extrapolations. • Examine both the bias and variance of the various extrapolations.
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Regression‐Discontinuity Design D
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Design Overview Design Examples Vis
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Real Examples of RD Reading First b
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RDD Visual Depiction Comparison Tre
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Two Rationales for RDD 1. Selection
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Two Rationales for RDD 1. Selection
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1. Overrides to the cutoff: Sharp,
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Fuzzy RD Designs • Requires a dis
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Requirements for Estimating Treatme
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Implementation Threats to RD Design
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Example: AYP Data from Texas Densit
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What to do? • This is a big probl
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Analytic Threats to RD Design: Miss
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Nonlinearities in Functional Form
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Here we see a discontinuity between
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Functional Form: Interactions • S
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If we superimpose the regression li
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Here we see an example where the tr
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Adding Nonlinear Terms to the Model
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Adding Nonlinear and Interaction Te
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Adding Terms, Continued • When in
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Example of Parametric Plot used aga
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Non‐parametric Approach lim x↓c
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Non‐parametric plot Local linear
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Semi‐Parametric Plot RD data from
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What to do? • Check to see whethe
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Shadish, Galindo, Wong, V., Steiner
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RD Design assumption 2 • Continui
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Implementation assumption 2 • No
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Analytic assumption 1 continued •
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Shadish et al. (under review) Vocab
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RDD Example 2
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Best case scenario - regression lin
Page 67 and 68: Correct specification of functional
Page 69 and 70: What to do (2) • Parametric appro
Page 71 and 72: What to do (4) • State‐of‐art
Page 73 and 74: What to do (5) • Move to a tie br
Page 75 and 76: Example Cocaine Project • Include
Page 77 and 78: What to do (7) • Estimation throu
Page 79 and 80: 2. Dealing with Overrides to the cu
Page 81 and 82: 2. Overrides to the cutoff • Mult
Page 83 and 84: Specification of Functional Form Pa
Page 85 and 86: Specification of Functional Form No
Page 87 and 88: Overrides to cutoff (2) Alternative
Page 89 and 90: Final estimates Function al form Pa
Page 91 and 92: Addressing Potential Issues with us
Page 93 and 94: IS Wong et al. a Fallible RD or Ins
Page 95 and 96: African‐American Home language Sp
Page 97 and 98: Fallible RD? • Now we look for di
Page 99 and 100: McCrary Test for New Jersey
Page 101 and 102: Summarizing Checks - Conditional Me
Page 103 and 104: Other Kinds of Threats with RD 1. L
Page 105 and 106: Variance of Impact Estimator in RA
Page 107 and 108: Variance of Impact Estimator in RDD
Page 109 and 110: Power Considerations Unique to RDD
Page 111 and 112: Generalizing Beyond The Cut‐off I
Page 113 and 114: Observed vs Counterfactual Outcomes
Page 115 and 116: Questions About Generalizing From R
Page 117: What Do We Mean By Comparison Group
Page 121 and 122: What Is The Target Parameter? • A
Page 127 and 128: What About The Above The Cut‐Off
Page 129 and 130: Root Mean Square Error In Experimen
Page 131 and 132: Post-Treatment Medicaid Expenditure
Page 133 and 134: Results For Number of Unpaid Worker
Page 135 and 136: Results For Expenditures With Expen
Page 137 and 138: Conclusions re Using a Comparison R
Page 139 and 140: Implications for Practice • Which
Page 141 and 142: RD with Multiple Cutoffs Design (as
Page 143 and 144: Analyzing RDs with Multiple Cutoffs
Page 145 and 146: Examples • Black, Galdo, and Smit
Page 147 and 148: Issue 2: To pool or not pool across
Page 149 and 150: Pooling is Already Common in Social
Page 151 and 152: What is Special about Pooling RD Es
Page 153 and 154: Estimating Treatment Effects across
Page 155 and 156: Estimating Treatment Effects across
Page 157 and 158: Generalizing Across Multiple Assign
Page 159 and 160: Multivariate RDD with Two Assignmen
Page 161 and 162: Recent Education Examples of RDDs w
Page 163 and 164: Frontier‐specific Effect (τ R )
Page 165 and 166: Requirements for a valid Multivaria
Page 167 and 168: Frontier Approach Estimates the dis
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Univariate Approach Addresses dimen
Page 171 and 172:
Monte Carlo Study Wong, V., Steiner
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Implications for Practice • Which
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Regression-Discontinuity Design - Institute for Policy Research

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