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Uncertainty and Risk - DARP

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Microeconomics CHAPTER 8. UNCERTAINTY AND RISK<br />

while experiment 2 suggests that<br />

L v black (0; 1000) + [1 L ] v white (0; 1000)<br />

> R v black (0; 1000) + [1 R ] v white (0; 1000) (8.6)<br />

We can see that (8.5) implies<br />

L [v black (1000; 0) v white (1000; 0)] > R [v black (1000; 0) v white (1000; 0)]<br />

from which we deduce that, given (8.3), L > R .<br />

However (8.5) implies<br />

L [v black (0; 1000) v white (0; 1000)] > R [v black (0; 1000) v white (0; 1000)] :<br />

So that, given (8.4), we would have L < R –a contradiction.<br />

revealed likelihood axiom must be violated.<br />

Therefore the<br />

cFrank Cowell 2006 122

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