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114. Objective No. 1. The JARPA II Research Plan states that JARPA II will monitor
changes relating to whale abundance and biological parameters, prey density and abundance, and
the effects of contaminants on cetaceans, and the cetaceans’ habitat, in three whale species
Antarctic minke whales, humpback whales and fin whales and that “[t]he obtained data will be
indicators of changes in the Antarctic ecosystem”. The Research Plan stresses the importance of
detecting changes in the whale populations and their habitat “as soon as possible” in order “to
predict their effects on the stocks, and to provide information necessary for the development of
appropriate management policies”. Specifically, JARPA II will monitor “changes in recruitment,
pregnancy rate, age at maturity and other biological parameters by sampling survey”, while
“abundance” will be monitored through “sighting surveys”. JARPA II will also monitor prey
consumption and changes in blubber thickness over time, as well as contaminant accumulation and
the effects of toxins on cetaceans.
115. Objective No. 2. The second objective refers to “modelling competition among whale
species and future management objectives”. The JARPA II Research Plan states that “[t]here is a
strong indication of competition among whale species in the research area” and that JARPA II
therefore seeks to explore “hypotheses related to this competition”. The Research Plan refers to the
“krill surplus hypothesis”. As presented to the Court, this hypothesis refers to two interrelated
ideas: first, that the previous overhunting of certain whale species (including fin and humpback
whales) created a surplus of krill (a shared food source) for other predators, including the smaller
minke whale, which led to an increase in the abundance of that species; and, secondly, that a
subsequent recovery in the humpback and fin whale populations (since the commercial catch of
those species was banned in 1963 and 1976, respectively) has resulted in increased competition
among these larger whales and minke whales for krill. The JARPA II Research Plan suggests that
Antarctic minke whale stocks may decrease as a result of current conditions.
116. Japan explains that “JARPA II . . . does not purport to verify the validity of the krill
surplus hypothesis” but instead seeks “to incorporate data on other animals/fish that prey on krill in
order to develop a ‘model of competition among whale species’” that may help to explain changes
in the abundance levels of different whale species. In Japan’s view, the “krill surplus hypothesis”
is just one of several ideas (in addition to, for example, the effects of climate change) that
JARPA II is designed to explore in connection with its construction of “an ecosystem model” for
the Antarctic. The JARPA II Research Plan further explains that such a model may contribute to
establishing “new management objectives” for the IWC, such as finding ways to accelerate the
recovery of blue and fin whales, and will examine “the possible effects of the resumption of
commercial whaling on the relative numbers of the various species and stocks”. Mr. Mangel, the
expert called by Australia, referred to the “krill surplus hypothesis” as the “only clearly identifiable
hypothesis” in JARPA II.