Money Weekly - Moneycontrol.com

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Index
Page
No.
Corporate News 2 Industrial Production 6
Macro Economic News 2 Consumer Durables 6
Global Sector Performance 3 Capital Goods 6
Page
No.
Nifty Index Forward Multiples 3 Derivatives Corner 7-9
Global Indices 4 Outlook 10
Government Bond 5 Event Calendar 10
Major Event of the Week
S&P warned India of fresh rating downgrade
Nifty & Institutional Flow
(` Mn)
60000
40000
20000
0
(20000)
(40000)
5882 5910 6021
6046
6164
6299
6141
26-Sep 03-Oct 10-Oct 17-Oct 24-Oct 31-Oct 08-Nov
Source: NSE
Note: As per Thursday closing
Top Nifty Movers Shakers
Tata Steel
5.8%
Asian Paints
2.5%
BOB
(10.5%)
SBI
(7.2%)
FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS)
Ranbaxy Lab
4.6%
Cipla Ltd
1.6%
PNB
(8.5%)
Bharti Airtel
(6.3%)
NTPC Ltd
4.3%
Hindalco
1.1%
Axis Bank
(8.2%)
Ambuja
Cements
(6.1%)
Infosys Ltd
2.5%
HCL Tech
1%
ICICI Bank
(7.4%)
IDFC
(6.1%)
6450
6300
6150
6000
5850
5700
5550
Developed Equity Markets
% Change
Last Close WTD YTD
U.S. (S&P)* 1,747 (0.8) 22.5
UK (FTSE)* 6,677 (0.9) 13.2
Japan (Nikkei 225) 14,087 (0.8) 35.5
Germany (DAX)* 9,033 0.3 18.7
France (CAC)* 4,248 (0.6) 16.7
Italy (FTSEMIB)* 18,890 (1.4) 16.1
Spain (IBEX)* 9,733 (1.1) 19.2
BRIC Equity Markets
India (Sensex) 20,666 (2.5) 6.4
India (Nifty) 6,141 (2.6) 4.0
China (Shanghai) 2,106 (2.0) (7.2)
Russia (Micex)* 1,494 (1.4) 1.3
Brazil (Ibov)* 52,741 (2.4) (13.5)
Asian Equity Markets
Hong Kong(HSI) 22,744 (2.2) 0.4
Korea (Kospi) 1,985 (2.7) (0.6)
BSE Sector
% Change
Last Close WTD YTD
BSE Mid Cap 6,211 0.5 (12.7)
BSE Small Cap 6,013 1.2 (18.5)
Auto 12,029 (1.6) 5.3
Bankex 12,459 (6.2) (13.1)
Capital Goods 9,129 (1.5) (16.0)
Power 1,614 0.3 (18.9)
Realty 1,344 (2.5) (36.3)
Technology 4,819 0.3 40.6
FMCG 6,539 (3.1) 10.5
Metal 9,318 0.1 (15.8)
Institutional Activity
Spot market
WTD MTD YTD
FII (Rs bn)* 11.6 191.7 910.0
MF (Rs bn)* (23.7) (78.1) (242.3)
Commodities Update
% Change
Unit Close WTD YTD
Crude Oil(Brent)** $/Bbl 104 (1.8) (6.4)
Gold(OTC)** $/Oz 1,309 (0.5) (21.8)
Silver(OTC)** $/Oz 22 (0.8) (28.5)
Copper(LME)** $/MT 7,151 (1.2) (9.6)
Aluminum(LME)** $/MT 1,777 (1.2) (12.9)
Sugar(LIFFE)** $/MT 475 (1.4) (9.3)
ZINC(LME)** $/MT 1,901 (2.0) (8.6)
Currency
Close
% Change
WTD YTD
INR/USD** 62.7 (1.5) (12.2)
USD/EURO** 1.3 0.5 (1.7)
USD/JPY** 98.2 0.5 (11.7)
* As per Thursday closing
** As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Source: Bloomberg
Source: NSE
Aditya Birla Money Limited
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Page No: 1

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Top Corporate News during the week
October sales numbers – Festival enthusiasm reflected in 2w only – rest categories subdued (plant shutdown intensifies); Rural theme is
the playing its part on 2w & Tractors; No signs of light for CV segment; Positive for M&M, Hero Motocorp & TVS Motors in the short term.
Maruti Suzuki: Overall sales remained flat at 1.05 lac units (YoY). Domestic market remained flattish. However, export grew by 27% (YoY). Dzire
continued to lead the growth on brand wise (up by ~20%). Ertiga recovered its ground from recent lows to 7236 units from 2657 units on MoM.
M&M: Total sales increased by 7% to 88821 units (YoY). UV segment continued to remain under pressure (down by ~15% on YoY). However, UV
gained its ground from the lows of 15.5k in July to 22.9k units in Oct, mainly due to rural demand pickup (Bolero – 40% of UV volumes) and product
alignment with excise duties norms. Tractors continued to steal the show, up by 29.4% to 38263 units from 29565 units on YoY basis.
CV: Tata Motors: Overall sales declined by 28.1% to 51638 units on YoY. CV down by 30.3% (LCV & M&HCV down by ~29% & 34.5% to 24.8k
and 7.9k vehicles respectively) and PV slumped by 33.1% on YoY basis. Exports increased by 30% to 4712 units on YoY basis. Ashok Leyland
sales has dropped by 15% to 6803 units on YoY. In that, M&HCV down by 18% to 4093 units and LCV (Dost) down by 11% to 2710 units on YoY
basis.
Two Wheelers: a) Hero Motocorp crossed the magical 6 lac/month mark (1 st time in company and 2w industry history), grew by 18.2% to 6.25 lac
units vs 5.29 lac units on YoY basis. b) Honda Motors & Scooters (HMSI) continued its rapid expansion of 50.1% to 3.75 lacs units on YoY basis.
Both Scooters and Motorcycle segments grew at an impressive pace of ~50% each. c) TVS Motors posted a decent growth of ~4% to 1.97 lac
units vs 1.90 lac units (YoY). In that, 2w has increased by 13% and 3w almost doubled to 7926 units on YoY basis. However, it remained flat on
MoM and d) Bajaj Auto posted 6% decline to 3.85 lacs vs 4.11 lacs. In that, Motorcycle & 3w declined by 3.6% and 26.5% respectively. Exports
went up by 9.5% on YoY basis.
Tech Mahindra Q2 strong beat on $ revenues; surprised positively on telecom vertical growth (2.5% growth);Strong contender in
emerging areas NMACS; Any correction would be used as an opportunity to accumulate for the core portfolio; Outperform.
During Q2FY14, Tech Mahindra registered a healthy topline growth of 4.7% to $758 mn from $724.1 mn on sequential basis (organic growth 4.2%).
On geographical mix, Europe & RoW had strong quarter, up +8% & +9.4% respectively on QoQ basis. On vertical wise, TM witnessed a broadbased
growth, with Retail leading the engine with 22.1% (QoQ). We are very impressed by the Telecom vertical’s growth of 2.5%, considering the
struggling BT account. In rupee terms, revenues increased by 16.3% to Rs. 47.71 bn (QoQ). EBITDA improved by 28.5% to Rs. 11.11 bn, with a
221 bps margin expansion to 23.3% on QoQ basis (wage hike deferred to Q3). Reported PAT increased by 4.7% to Rs. 7.18 bn from Rs. 6.86 bn
(QoQ), mainly due to lower other income, forex loss of Rs. 260.6 mn vs forex gain of Rs. 1337.9 mn in Q1 and higher tax outgo (due to merger
process related taxes).
The results were ahead of estimates, clear beat on $ terms revenues. In Q2, TM signed 13 deals (including 2 large deals) TCV worth ~$500 mn.
Recent TM’s healthy deal wins started to reflect in the numbers. In addition, merged entity benefits of inviting for the large deals are slowly gaining
momentum and expected to ramp up in the medium term. We continue to remain constructive on the TM’s story, as the entire world evolves around
Telecom sector (~47% of the revenues) and their strong presence in NMACS (Network, Mobility, Analytics, Cloud and Security). We like to see
Telecom more as the services than classified as industry, considering the huge enterprise mobility potential ($140 bn global market in 2020) and
communication additive nature. On YTD, TM has outperformed the benchmark (Nifty & BSE IT) by 60%+ and 20%+ respectively, on the back the
strong performance, mergers, defensive nature of the sector and relatively cheap valuation. We continue to remain constructive on TM (12x on
FY15E), any correction would be used as an opportunity to accumulate for the core portfolio with the medium to long term perspective.
Macro Economy & Other News
Domestic
India’s HSBC Service PMI rises to 47.1
Indian services firms recovered slightly but activity still shrank and a
shortage of new orders means a rebound looks some way off, a
survey showed. The PMI rose to 47.1 in Oct’13 from 44.6 in Sep,
which was the weakest reading since April 2009.
International
U.S. GDP growth beats forecast
U.S. GDP growth accelerated in the Q3 at 2.8% annual rate, the
quickest pace in a year, after expanding at a 2.5% clip in the Q2.
However, stripping out a one-time buildup of inventory among
businesses, growth rate was 2%.
S&P warns India of fresh rating downgrade
Standard & Poor’s (S&P), the global rating agency warned India that
its sovereign rating would be lowered from the current outlook of
“negative” within a year if the “policy drift” continued. The outlook on
the long-term rating remains “negative”.
ECB surprises market with rate cuts
ECB has cut interest rates to a new low in the face of deflationary
pressures in the euro area. The ECB cut its main refinancing rate by a
quarter of a percentage point to 0.25%. It also cut the rate on its
marginal lending facility to 0.75% from 1%.
Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 2

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Global Equity Indices & Sectoral Performance
Developed
Index
value
Global Sectoral Performance
Index
Return Technology Basic
Materials
Financials Telecom Industrials Utilities
Oil &
Gas
Health
Care
Consumer
Goods
% % % % % % % % %
US DOW 15594 -0.14 3.49 -0.41 -0.96 -0.61 2.14 ---- 3.41 1.05 1.29
UK FTSE 6680 -0.82 -1.16 1.42 -1.59 0.83 -0.76 -1.53 -0.12 -0.21 -0.61
GERMANY DAX 9035 0.31 2.32 0.84 -0.7 1.08 0.02 1.23 ---- 0.36 1.94
FRANCE CAC 4250 -0.54 -1.76 1.62 0.63 -4.15 2.62 1.84 -2.06 1.6 -1.71
JAPAN NIKKEI 14087 -0.81 0.42 0.06 -0.76 1.29 -0.49 -3.19 2.38 1.03 -0.85
BRIC
BRAZIL BOVESPA 52741 -2.36 ---- 6.64 -1.93 -3.31 -3.41 -1.81 2.81 -3.3 -0.33
RUSSIA MICEX 1495 -1.36 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
INDIA NIFTY 6141 -2.64 0 3.9 0.85 -1.22 0.48 1.95 -0.68 -2.19 -3.17
CHINA SANGHAI 2106 -2.02 0.69 -0.12 -0.57 -2.95 -0.94 -0.16 2.3 -3.16 -1.06
Asian
HONG KONG H S I 22744 -2.17 -2.96 1.39 -1.5 -0.47 -0.99 -1.83 -1.98 ---- -3.81
KOREA KOSPI 1985 -2.67 -0.33 -1.45 -2.42 -2.87 -0.2 1.2 -2.87 -5.1 -1.01
SINGAPORE STRAITS 3177 -0.75 ---- ---- 0.01 0.48 -1.57 ---- -0.3 ---- -0.52
TAIWAN TWSE 8230 -1.89 -0.9 -3.14 -2.48 -2.27 -1.55 -0.51 -0.04 -5.11 -2.03
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Nifty Relative Valuation Metrics (1 Year Forward)
1Yr Forward P/E
1Yr Forw ard P/B
26.0
4.5
24.0
4.0
22.0
+2 SD
20.0
18.0
+2 SD
+1 SD
3.5
3.0
+1 SD
16.0
Mean: 15.0
2.5
Mean: 2.5
14.0
12.0
-1 SD
2.0
-1 SD
10.0
-2 SD
8.0
Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
1.5
-2 SD
1.0
Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Feb-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13
Source: NSE, ABML Research
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 3

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Global Indices Forward P/E
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
Japan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
PE CY12 PE CY13 EPS % Change
PE FY13*
PE FY14*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Global Indices Forward P/BV
3.0
8.0
2.5
2.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
1.5
4.0
(%)
1.0
0.5
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
P/BV CY12 P/BV CY13 Dividend Yield CY13
Japan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
0.0
PE FY13*
PE FY14*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Global Indices RoE
21%
19%
17%
15%
RoE
13%
11%
9%
7%
5%
Brazil
BOVESPA
Russia
Micex
India
Nifty*
China
SHCOMP
US
DowJ
Germany
DAX
France
CAC
UK
FTSE
Japan
NIKKEI*
Hong Kong
His-
Korea
Kospi
Singapore
Straits
Taiwan
TWSE
CY12 CY13 FY13*
FY14*
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Note: As per Friday 16:30 hrs IST
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 4

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Government Bond Yield (India)
Government Bond Yields
Monthly changed in Govt. Bond Yield Curve
(%)
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
(%)
9.9
9.7
9.5
9.3
9.1
8.9
9.66
9.42
9.08 9.10
9.06
9.08
6.5
6.0
5.5
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Feb-11
Jul-11
GIND5YR Index
Jan-12
Jun-12
Nov-12
May-13
GIND10YR Index
Oct-13
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.1
8.87
8.53
8.61
8.63
8.59
8.50
3m 6m 1Yr 5Yr 10Yr 15Yr
7-Nov-13
7-Oct-13
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
G-sec – AAA Corporate Bond — Spread (India)
11
10
9
8
10 Year Corp Bond Spread
12
11
10
9
8
5 Yr Corp Bond Spread
(%)
7
(%)
7
6
6
5
5
4
Jan-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
4
Jan-09
Jul-09
Feb-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Oct-13
10 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 10 Yr Govt Bond Yield
5 Yr AAA Corporate Bond Yield 5 Yr Govt Bond Yield
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
CD & CP Rates Movement
(%)
13.5
11.5
9.5
7.5
5.5
3.5
1.5
Jan/09
Certificate of Deposit Rates
Aug/09
Mar/10
Oct/10
May/11
Dec/11
Jul/12
Feb/13
CD 3month CD 6month CD 12month
Oct/13
(%)
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
Feb/09
Jul/09
Commercial Paper Rates
Dec/09
May/10
Oct/10
Mar/11
Aug/11
Jan/12
Jul/12
Dec/12
May/13
CP 3month CP 6month CP 12 month
Oct/13
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 5

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Index of Industrial Production
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
165
Aug-12
163
Sep-12
Index of Industrial Production
172
166
179
182
176
194
167
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
166
May-13
165
Jun-13
172
Jul-13
166
Aug-13
15
10
- 5
(5)
(10)
(15)
(20)
% in Industrial Production
8
10
8
(1) (1)
4
2
5
(3)
(1) (3)
1
(3)
(0)
2
2 4
3
-1 -1 -1
1
1
-2
(14) -3
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
MoM (%) (LHS)
YoY (%) (RHS)
12
9
6
3
-
(3)
(6)
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Consumer Durables
Consumer Durables Index
% in Consumer Durables Index
400
300
200
100
281
Aug-12
304
Sep-12
336
Oct-12
301
Nov-12
274
Dec-12
285
Jan-13
290
Feb-13
311
Mar-13
277
Apr-13
254
May-13
275
Jun-13
280
Jul-13
259
Aug-13
15
10
5
-
(5)
(10)
(15)
(20)
(0)
1
Jul-12
1
(9)
Aug-12
17
8
7
4
11
2
1
(9)
-1
-1 -3 -5
(10)
-8
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
MoM (%) (LHS)
9
2
(7)
(11)
(8)
-10
-10
-9 -8
-18
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
YoY (%) (RHS)
20
15
10
-5
0
5
-10
-15
-20
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Consumer Non Durables
200
150
100
50
0
131
Aug-12
128
Sep-12
Consumer Non Durables Index
135
138
172
176
165
168
156
144
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
146
Jun-13
144
Jul-13
137
Aug-13
30
20
10
-
(10)
% in Consumer Non Durables Index
24
11
7
6
11
7
6
5
5
(2)
3
4
2
1
3 1
1
(3) 5
(0)
(1)
(2)
(6) (7) (8)
(5)
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
MoM (%) (LHS)
YoY (%) (RHS)
12
9
6
3
-
(3)
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Capital Goods
Capital Goods Index
% in Capital Goods Index
400
300
200
100
0
250
Aug-12
249
Sep-12
241
Oct-12
Nov-12
235
Dec-12
261
Jan-13
251
Feb-13
286
Mar-13
343
Apr-13
207
219
May-13
221
Jun-13
270
Jul-13
245
Aug-13
30
15
-
(15)
(30)
(45)
7
(1)
7
(3)
(4)
(13)
20
11 14
(2) (4)
10
6
1
9
22
16
(9)
(1)
(0)
(2)
(4) (2)
(6)
(9)
(40)
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
MoM (%) (LHS)
YoY (%) (RHS)
20
10
0
-10
-20
Source: Bloomberg, ABML Research
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 6

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Derivatives Corner
Nifty Grid — % Change in Price
Short
Covering
<
8
4 TATASTEEL RANBAXY
0
HINDALCO
NTPC
TCS
CIPLA
ASIANPAINT
HCLTECH
INFY
TATAMOTORS
Long Built
Up
Profit
Booking/
long
Unwinding
Weekly Price Change (%)
(4)
(8)
<
<
RELINFRA
BAJAJ-AUTO
JPASSOCIAT
ONGC
DRREDDY
HDFC
IDFC
RELIANCE
BPCL
SUNPHARMA
COALINDIA
JINDALSTEL
DLF
HEROMOTOCO
ITC
HINDUNILVR
KOTAKBANK
LUPIN
ULTRACEMCO
GAIL
LT
M&M
AMBUJACEM
SBIN
ACC
GRASIM
INDUSINDBK
AXISBANK
PNB
BANKBARODA
MARUTI
CAIRN
NMDC
TATAPOWER
BHARTIARTL
BHEL
HDFCBANK
POWERGRID
ICICIBANK
Short
Built Up
Weekly % Change in Open Interest* (Futures)
Possible Long Candidates on dips Possible Short Candidates Probable Long Candidates
Note 1: Summation of three series of future.
Note 2: Take positions with proper stop losses.
FII Deri Watch
` in Crore
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
(1000)
(2000)
6400
6300
6200
6100
6000
5900
5800
5700
(3000)
12/Sep 19/Sep 26/Sep 3/Oct 10/Oct 17/Oct 24/Oct 31/Oct 7/Nov
FII FUT B/S (LHS) FII FUT OI CHNG(LHS) Nifty Spot (RHS)
5600
Source: NSE
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 7

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Nifty Synopsis
Particulars Spot Future Prem. / Disc. Futures OI PCR OI PCR VOL VIX (%)
Current 6140.00 6186.6 46.60 22505500 1.04 0.97 19.64
Previous 6307.00 6358.7 51.70 24749550 1.07 1.24 18.64
Change (%) -2.65 -2.71 – -9.07 – – 5.36
Source: NSE
Outlook
Nifty open interest vs Nifty Futures
In Index Futures FIIs were Net Sellers to the tune of ` 1220 Cr
with an open interest decrease of around `567 Cr as compared
to net buyers to the tune of ` 1883 Cr with an open interest
decrease of around ` 611 Cr as of the previous trading week:
Indicating Long Unwinding in Index Futures by FIIs.
Nifty Futures open interest saw an decrease of around 9%
and Nifty Futures saw a decrease of around 2.7%: Indicating
Long Unwinding in NIFTY Futures.
6400
6350
6300
6250
6200
6150
6100
6050
6000
5950
22/Oct
24/Oct
28/Oct
30/Oct
OI
1/Nov
6/Nov
Nifty Futures
8/Nov
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Millions
India VIX ended 5.4% higher at 19.64% as compared to
18.64%: Indicating negativeness for the market.
The PCR for Nifty based on open interest has fallen to 1.04
from 1.07: indicating positiveness for the market.
High put option open interest build up of around 3.6 mn
and 4.3 mn is seen at 6100 and 6000 strikes respectively:
Indicating that they will act as strong supports.
High call option open interest build up of around 4.5 mn
and 3.8 mn is seen at 6300 and 6400 strikes respectively:
Indicating that they will act as strong resistances.
Nifty is trading at a premium of 46 points compared to 52
points a week earlier against spot Indicating negativeness
for the market.
Nifty Premium / Discount
Source: NSE
Nifty Spot vs PCR
1.60
1.20
0.80
0.40
0.00
Source: NSE
23/Aug
30/Aug
6/Sep
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
25/Oct
13/Sep
1/Nov
20/Sep
8/Nov
27/Sep
4/Oct
11/Oct
18/Oct
25/Oct
1/Nov
8/Nov
PCR – OI PCR – Vol Nifty Spot
Nifty Options OI built up (Current expiry)
6400
6200
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
Millions
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
5600
5700
5800
5900
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
6500
6600
Source: NSE
Put OI
Call OI
Source: NSE
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 8

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
OI Weekly Play
Sectoral Movement
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
(2)
(4)
(6)
3
2
1
-
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Auto
Banking
Cement
FMCG
Oil & Gas
Metals
Textiles
IT
Telecom
Capital Goods
Pharma
Power
Finance
Chemicals & Fertilizers
Infra
Real Estate
Others
% Change OI % Change Price
Source: NSE
Long Build Up was seen in: METALS, IT, PHARMA,
Short Build Up was seen in: AUTO, BANKING, CEMENT, FMCG, OIL & GAS, TELECOM, CAPITAL GOODS, REAL ESTATE.
Open Interest Gainers
Long Buildup
Short Buildup
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
HEXAWARE 135.2 1.7 38
TECHM 1688.6 9.6 35
DIVISLAB 1030.3 4.3 20
ARVIND 114.9 6.4 18
RANBAXY 425.7 4.4 18
Source: NSE
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
FEDERALBNK 78.80 -5.6 60
SRTRANSFIN 564.90 -13.0 43
DABUR 163.95 -7.8 40
POWERGRID 96.50 -2.0 26
ICICIBANK 1057.85 -7.4 25
Source: NSE
Open Interest Losers
Short Covering
Long Unwinding
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
AUROPHARMA 260.75 12.3 0
ADANIENT 218.90 6.3 1
TATAMTRDVR 205.80 2.4 2
CIPLA 427.05 1.7 3
GMRINFRA 23.65 1.3 4
Scrip Price % Price Change % OI Change
HEXAWARE 135.20 1.7 38
TECHM 1688.55 9.6 35
DIVISLAB 1030.25 4.3 20
ARVIND 114.85 6.4 18
RANBAXY 425.65 4.4 18
Source: NSE
Source: NSE
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 9

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Outlook
During the week, the Nifty and Sensex were down 2.6% and 2.5% respectively as profit booking was seen, especially in the
banking sector, the index of which was down 6.2%. Investor interest continued in the mid cap and small cap space. On the
quarterly results front, Tech Mahindra beat street expectations with better-than-expected dollar revenue growth and new deal
inflows. October automobile numbers showed healthy growth in 2 wheelers and tractors suggesting robust rural spending, flat
volumes for passenger cars, and continued double digit decline in growth of commercial vehicles. In institutional activity, FII's were
net buyers to the tune of Rs 11.6bn while domestic mutual funds sold about Rs 23.7bn
Though the markets have seen profit booking, the overall investor mood remains positive and FII’s flows continue to be strong. We
recommend investors to continue to focus on quality companies with strong earnings visibility. Select good midcap companies with
clean balance sheet can also be looked upon with low to medium risk-reward tradeoff. The banking sector could see some renewed
interest after the recent profit booking.
Event Calendar
Economy Monday 11 Nov Tuesday 12 Nov Wednesday 13 Nov Thursday 14 Nov Friday 15 Nov
Domestic
Imports YoY Oct (Prior - CPI YoY Oct (Exp 9.90%,
WPI YoY Oct (Exp
18.10%)
Prior 9.84%)
6.90%, Prior 6.46%)
Exports YoY Oct (Prior
11.20%)
IIP YoY Sep (Exp 3.50%,
Prior 0.60%)
Local Car Sales Oct
(Prior 156018)
Global
- - Euro Zone: Industrial
Production SA MoM Sep
(Exp -0.30%, Prior
1.00%)
Euro Zone: Industrial
Production WDA YoY
Sep (Exp 0.10%, Prior -
2.10%)
US: MBA Mortgage App.
08-Nov (Prior -7.00%)
Japan: GDP Annualized
SA QoQ 3Q P (Exp
1.60%, Prior 3.80%)
South Korea: 7-Day Repo
Rate 14-Nov (Exp 2.50%,
Prior 2.50%)
Euro Zone: GDP SA QoQ
3Q A (Exp 0.10%, Prior
0.30%)
Euro Zone: GDP SA YoY
3Q A (Exp -0.30%, Prior -
0.50%)
US: Initial Jobless Claims
09-Nov (Exp 330K, Prior
336K)
US: Continuing Claims
01-Nov (Prior 2868K)
US: Trade Balance Sep
(Exp -$39.0B, Prior -
$38.8B)
Euro Zone: CPI MoM Oct
(Exp -0.10%, Prior
0.50%)
Euro Zone: CPI YoY Oct
F (Exp 0.70%, Prior
0.70%)
US: Industrial Production
MoM Oct (Exp 0.10%,
Prior 0.60%)
Source: Bloomberg
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 10

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
Research Team
Vivek Mahajan
Hemant Thukral
Head of Research
Head – Derivatives Desk
022-61802820 022-61802870
vivek.mahajan@adityabirla.com
hemant.thukral@adityabirla.com
Fundamental Team
Akhil Jain Metals & Mining/Mid Caps 022-61802827 akhil.jain@adityabirla.com
Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps 022-61802831 sunny.agrawal@adityabirla.com
Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance 022-61802833 sumit.jatia@adityabirla.com
Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate 022-61802829 shreyans.m@adityabirla.com
Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto 022-61802834 dinesh.kumar.k@adityabirla.com
Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst 022-61802839 pradeep.parkar@adityabirla.com
Quantitative Team
Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst 022-61802838 jyoti.nangrani@adityabirla.com
Sudeep Shah Technical Analyst 022-61802837 sudeep.shah@adityabirla.com
Advisory Support
Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk – HNI 022-61802824 indranil.dutta@adityabirla.com
Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk 022-61802835 suresh.gardas@adityabirla.com
Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk 022-61802832 sandeep.pandey@adityabirla.com
ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR
Aditya Birla Money Limited
Cello Triumph, Unit No. 502-503 & 505 | I. B. Patel Road | off W.E. Highway | Goregaon (East) | Mumbai - 400063 | Tel: +91 22 61802800
Page No: 11

Money Weekly 08 November 2013
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Page No: 12