Dr Pankiewicz's presentation - NERC
Dr Pankiewicz's presentation - NERC
Dr Pankiewicz's presentation - NERC
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The role of Arabian Sea SST bias<br />
Strong monsoons depend on Arabian<br />
Sea moisture in observations<br />
• Large systematic cold SST<br />
errors in Arabian Sea reduce<br />
monsoon rainfall (up to 30%)<br />
and delay onset by weakening<br />
local evaporation.<br />
• Cold Arabian Sea SST errors<br />
develop in winter due (in part)<br />
to excessive winter monsoon<br />
northerlies.<br />
• This tends to reduce Indian<br />
rainfall, particularly in June.<br />
• Inter-model spread of early<br />
monsoon rainfall for future<br />
scenarios is more constrained<br />
in CMIP5 models with large<br />
cold Arabian Sea SST biases.<br />
© Crown copyright Met Office<br />
Idealised re<strong>presentation</strong> of SST bias<br />
Coupled model SST biases and the effect of (1) & (2) on<br />
HadGEM3-A (rainfall and vertically-integrated moisture flux)<br />
Richard Levine
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