CounterinsurgenCy in helmand - Institute for the Study of War

afghanistan report 8 | COUNTERINSURGENCY in helmand | j. dressler | January 2011
Conclusion
Over the course of the past year, the momentum
in Helmand has swung from the insurgency to the
coalition and Afghan forces. 340 Definable progress
is evident in many areas throughout southern and
central Helmand. This progress was largely due
to “getting the inputs right,” that is, providing
the decisive force that was required for successful
comprehensive counterinsurgency operations. 341
Marines and Afghan forces are currently widening
the campaign to include significant population
centers in the northern reaches of the province.
In just a year and a half, coalition forces along
with their Afghan partners have demonstrated
their ability to achieve success on the battlefield
through sufficiently resourced, population-centric
counterinsurgency operations designed to protect
the population while taking the fight to the enemy.
According to recent polling by The Washington
Post, ABC and the BBC, the number of people
in Helmand describing their security as “good”
increased from fourteen percent in December
2009 poll to sixty-seven percent as of December
2010. 342 Approximately two-thirds of Helmand
residents believe that Afghanistan is on the right
track. Furthermore, seventy-one percent currently
describe their living conditions as “good,” an
increase of twenty-seven percent since late last
year. Of those surveyed, fifty-nine percent give
positive marks to the availability of jobs, up nearly
fifty percent from last year. In Helmand, public
assessments of the availability of clean water and
medical care are sharply higher than last year.
I MEF Commander Major General Richard
Mills believes that the enemy is losing the
support of the population, has already lost the
initiative, and is continuing to lose required
resources. 343 In districts such as Nawa, Marines
have transitioned several patrol bases to ANSF
with many more such “handovers” to follow in
the coming months. Though Marines believe they
will maintain a presence in Nawa through next
summer, Major General Mills noted that there is
little overt presence of Marines on the streets in
the district. 344 Throughout Helmand, Marines
will continue to press the Taliban throughout the
winter months, a time that is often considered a
lull in friendly and enemy operations due to poor
weather conditions.
Yet, progress in Helmand has not been limited
to the security line of effort. Substantial gains
have been made regarding the development
and capabilities of the ANSF in Helmand,
though there continues to be challenges in
professionalizing the force. This will be achieved
over time through close mentoring with their
coalition partners. Counternarcotics efforts have
been successful in some areas but need to be
maintained at their current levels or expanded
over the coming years to help farmers weather
the multi-year transition from illicit to licit
agriculture. Progress on the governance front,
arguably the most important line of effort, has
been heartening, though there remain significant
challenges. The most significant impediment in
provincial and district governance has been the
interference of malign actors who remain close to
President Karzai. As long as this continues, it will
be a serious impediment to the establishment of
enduring, representative governance in Helmand.
Lastly, reconstruction and development efforts are
a critical aspect of counterinsurgency operations
and follow closely after the establishment of
security. Coalition forces must follow through
with their promises and at the same time, be
cautious not to engender a culture of dependency
and corruption among the local population
through the massive infusion of aid dollars.
While there are many challenges as coalition and
Afghan forces that remain, the success that has
been achieved over the past eighteen months in
Helmand is undeniable.
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