Higher Tier Rice Modeling for the EU - pfmodels
Higher Tier Rice Modeling for the EU - pfmodels
Higher Tier Rice Modeling for the EU - pfmodels
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<strong>Higher</strong> <strong>Tier</strong> <strong>Rice</strong> <strong>Modeling</strong> <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>EU</strong><br />
A.M. Ritter, Waterborne Environmental Inc., USA<br />
W.M. Williams, Waterborne Environmental Inc., USA<br />
5 th Annual <strong>EU</strong> <strong>Modeling</strong> Workshop – October 2010
Rationale <strong>for</strong> higher tier modeling<br />
• Med-<strong>Rice</strong> (2003) guidance provides a standardized<br />
methodology <strong>for</strong> <strong>the</strong> Step 1 assessment of rice<br />
pesticides in <strong>the</strong> <strong>EU</strong> registration process.<br />
• Predicted concentrations in paddy water (PEC PW ), paddy soil<br />
(PEC SOIL ), receiving canal water (PEC SW ) and canal sediment<br />
(PEC SED ) are calculated via a spreadsheet tool.<br />
• A number of simplifying assumptions are made and some<br />
processes are omitted.
Dissipation processes<br />
MED-RICE<br />
PECsw results<br />
PECsw (t) (mug/L)<br />
Clay<br />
Sand<br />
Day PECsw (t) TWA sw (t) PECsw (t)TWA sw (t)<br />
0 2.79 4.77<br />
1 2.74 1 day 2.76 4.68 1 day 4.72<br />
2 2.68 2 day 2.74 4.58 2 day 4.68<br />
4 2.57 4 day 2.68 4.40 4 day 4.58<br />
7 2.42 7 day 2.60 4.14 7 day 4.45<br />
14 2.10 14 day 2.43 3.60 14 day 4.16<br />
21 1.83 21 day 2.27 3.12 21 day 3.89<br />
28 1.59 28 day 2.13 2.71 28 day 3.64<br />
42 1.19 42 day 1.88 2.04 42 day 3.22<br />
50 1.02 50 day 1.76 1.74 50 day 3.00<br />
100 0.37 100 day 1.20 0.63 100 day 2.05
START<br />
STEP 1a<br />
Loading based on outflow and<br />
drift, no degradation, no distribution<br />
(sorption)<br />
MED-RICE<br />
STEP 1b<br />
Use<br />
safe ?<br />
no<br />
Loadings as in step 1a,<br />
degradation, no distribution<br />
(sorption)<br />
yes<br />
Use<br />
safe ?<br />
yes<br />
no<br />
STEP 1c<br />
Loadings as in step 1a,<br />
degradation and distribution<br />
(sorption)<br />
no fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />
work<br />
Use<br />
safe ?<br />
yes<br />
no<br />
<strong>Higher</strong> tier<br />
STEP 2<br />
Loadings as in step1,<br />
advanced modelling using<br />
a simulation model<br />
Use<br />
safe ?<br />
yes<br />
no<br />
STEP 3<br />
Realistic loadings, specific and<br />
realistic description of site using<br />
realistic description<br />
Source: MED-RICE Manual
Outline<br />
• Present two approaches to higher tier rice<br />
modeling<br />
– Simple<br />
– Complex<br />
• Discuss potential scenario configurations
RICEWQ<br />
Recommended by <strong>the</strong> European Commission<br />
<strong>for</strong> higher tier exposure assessment<br />
(Sanco/1090/2000).<br />
Limitation: Need to link to surface water<br />
model (i.e., EXAMS, RIVWQ, TOXSWA)<br />
Parameter MED-RICE RICEWQ<br />
Drainage Management No* Yes<br />
Irrigation No Yes<br />
Multiple Applications No Yes<br />
Slow Release Application No Yes<br />
Incorporated Application No Yes<br />
Drift Yes Yes<br />
Crop Growth No Yes<br />
Foliar Interception Yes Yes<br />
Foliar Washoff and Decay No Yes<br />
Degradation Yes Yes<br />
Adsorption Yes Yes<br />
Suspended Sediment No Yes<br />
Metabolites No Yes<br />
Wea<strong>the</strong>r No Yes<br />
Probabilistic (multi-years) No Yes<br />
*Able to change holding period
Water and chemical mass balance<br />
PRECIPITATION AND PADDY DEPTH<br />
PESTICIDE IN PADDY WATER<br />
16<br />
25<br />
0.30<br />
0.06<br />
Precipitation (cm)<br />
14<br />
20<br />
12<br />
10<br />
15<br />
8<br />
6<br />
10<br />
4<br />
5<br />
2<br />
0<br />
0<br />
155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205<br />
Julian Day<br />
Precipitation Water Level<br />
Paddy Depth (cm)<br />
Parent Concentration (ppb)<br />
0.25<br />
0.20<br />
0.15<br />
0.10<br />
0.05<br />
0.00<br />
0.00<br />
155 165 175 185 195 205<br />
Julian Day<br />
Parent Met. 1 Met. 2 Met. 3<br />
0.05<br />
0.04<br />
0.03<br />
0.02<br />
0.01<br />
Metabolite Concentration<br />
(ppb)<br />
WATER AND PARENT PESTICIDE DISCHARGE FROM PADDY<br />
PESTICIDE IN PADDY SEDIMENT<br />
Flow (m3/day)<br />
45000<br />
40000<br />
35000<br />
30000<br />
25000<br />
20000<br />
15000<br />
10000<br />
5000<br />
8000000<br />
7000000<br />
6000000<br />
5000000<br />
4000000<br />
3000000<br />
2000000<br />
1000000<br />
Pesticide Mass (mg)<br />
Parent Concentration (ppb)<br />
0.70<br />
0.60<br />
0.50<br />
0.40<br />
0.30<br />
0.20<br />
0.10<br />
0<br />
0<br />
155 160 165 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205<br />
Julian Day<br />
0.00<br />
155 165 175 185 195 205<br />
Julian Day<br />
Water Discharge<br />
Parent Pesticide Mass<br />
Parent Met. 1 Met. 2 Met. 3
Water management in rice<br />
Dry seeding<br />
10 cm<br />
Wet seeding<br />
5 cm 0.5 cm<br />
10 cm<br />
Sowing<br />
Emergence<br />
Active tillering<br />
Lag tillering<br />
Panicle<br />
Milk stage<br />
Mature<br />
Harvest<br />
‐20 ‐10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120<br />
Days after planting
Source: MED-RICE Manual
Harvested production of rice, 2007<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> harvested<br />
Country (1000 t)<br />
Italy 1,493<br />
Spain 713<br />
Greece 201<br />
Portugal 155<br />
France 91<br />
Bulgaria 31<br />
Romania 30<br />
Hungary 10<br />
Source: Eurostat – crop production database
<strong>Higher</strong> tier modeling<br />
Can be simple:<br />
• One rice field<br />
• One water body (canal or stream)<br />
• FOCUS wea<strong>the</strong>r (20 years)<br />
• Two soils (clay, sand)<br />
Or complex:<br />
• Watershed scale ( 1000 fields)<br />
• Three water bodies (ditches, canals, rivers)<br />
• <strong>Rice</strong> region specific wea<strong>the</strong>r<br />
• Representative soils
Simple<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> field MED-RICE canal<br />
2 ha field<br />
200 m<br />
10 x dilution<br />
100 m
<strong>Rice</strong> field FOCUS stream<br />
1 ha field<br />
nly<br />
FOCUS Stream Scenario<br />
of<br />
Eroded sediment (+<br />
pesticide) input from a 20 m<br />
contributing margin along<br />
stream<br />
100 m<br />
(runoff scenarios only)<br />
Input from drainage or<br />
runoff plus baseflow<br />
with no pesticide.<br />
No sediment input<br />
Minimum water depth of<br />
0.3 m maintained by a<br />
weir<br />
100 ha upstream catchment.<br />
20 % treated with pesticide<br />
1 ha field treated<br />
with pesticide<br />
Input from<br />
drainage or runoff
Simple<br />
Surface<br />
water<br />
body<br />
Application<br />
Rate (kg/ha)<br />
PECsw (ppb)<br />
Peak 96-Hour 21-Day 60-Day 90-Day<br />
Annual<br />
Average<br />
Canal 0.1 0.0080 0.0070 0.0028 0.0012 0.0008 0.0002<br />
Stream 0.1 0.0834 0.0702 0.0342 0.0158 0.0108 0.0028<br />
% of Applied A.I.<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
Pesticide Releases from Paddies<br />
Overflow vs. Drainage<br />
Drainage<br />
Overflow<br />
Concentration, ug/L<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Exposure Concentration<br />
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100<br />
2<br />
Percent Greater Than<br />
0<br />
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20<br />
Inst. 96-hr 21-day 60-day 90-day Annual<br />
Year
Complex: Watershed scale<br />
Spain<br />
France<br />
Schematic<br />
Diagram<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
11105 11104 11103 11102 11101 11000<br />
11111 11112 11113 11114 11115<br />
21105 21104 21103 21102 21101 21000<br />
21111 21112 21113 21114 21115<br />
31105 31104 31103 31102 31101 21000<br />
31111 31112 31113 31114 31115<br />
10905 10904 10903 10902 10901 10900<br />
10911 10912 10913 10914 10915<br />
20905 20904 20903 20902 20901 20900<br />
20911 20912 20913 20914 20915<br />
30905 30904 30903 30902 30901 30900<br />
30911 30912 30913 30914 30915<br />
10805 10804 10803 10802 10801 10800<br />
10811 10812 10813 10814 10815<br />
20805 20804 20803 20802 20801 20800<br />
20811 20812 20813 20814 20815<br />
30805 30804 30803 30802 30801 30800<br />
30811 30812 30813 30814 30815<br />
10705 10704 10703 10702 10701 10700<br />
10711 10712 10713 10714 10715<br />
20705 20704 20703 20702 20701 20700<br />
20711 20712 20713 20714 20715<br />
30705 30704 30703 30702 30701 30700<br />
30711 30712 30713 30714 30715<br />
10605 10604 10603 10602 10601 10600<br />
10611 10612 10613 10614 10615<br />
20605 20604 20603 20602 20601 20600<br />
20611 20612 20613 20614 20615<br />
30605 30604 30603 30602 30601 30600<br />
30611 30612 30613 30614 30615<br />
10505 10504 10503 10502 10501 10500<br />
10511 10512 10513 10514 10515<br />
20505 20504 20503 20502 20501 20500<br />
20511 20512 20513 20514 20515<br />
30505 30504 30503 30502 30501 30500<br />
30511 30512 30513 30514 30515<br />
10405 10404 10403 10402 10401 10400<br />
10411 10412 10413 10414 10415<br />
20405 20404 20403 20402 20401 20400<br />
20411 20412 20413 20414 20415<br />
30405 30404 30403 30402 30401 30400<br />
30411 30412 30413 30414 30415<br />
10305 10304 10303 10302 10301 10300<br />
10311 10312 10313 10314 10315<br />
20305 20304 20303 20302 20301 20300<br />
20311 20312 20313 20314 20315<br />
30305 30304 30303 30302 30301 30300<br />
30311 30312 30313 30314 30315<br />
10205 10204 10203 10202 10201 10200<br />
10211 10212 10213 10214 10215<br />
20205 20204 20203 20202 20201 20200<br />
20211 20212 20213 20214 20215<br />
30205 30204 30203 30202 30201 30200<br />
30211 30212 30213 30214 30215<br />
River<br />
10105 10104<br />
River<br />
Flow<br />
10103 10102 10101<br />
10100<br />
10111 10112 10113 10114 10115 20205 20204 20203 20202 20201<br />
1000 m<br />
20100 20111 20112 20113 20114 20115 30305 30204 30203 30202 30201 30100 30111 30112 30113 30114 30115<br />
1000 m 1000 m<br />
Canal<br />
Ditch<br />
12105 12104 12103 12102 12101 12100 12111 12112 12113 12114 12115<br />
12205 12204 12203 12202 12201 12200 12211 12212 12213 12214 12215<br />
12305 12304 12303 12302 12301 12300 12311 12312 12313 12314 12315<br />
12405 12404 12403 12402 12401 12400 12411 12412 12413 12414 12415<br />
12505 12504 12503 12502 12501 12500 12511 12512 12513 12514 12515<br />
12605 12604 12603 12602 12601 12600 12611 12612 12613 12614 12615<br />
12705 12704 12703 12702 12701 12700 12711 12712 12713 12714 12715<br />
12805 12804 12803 12802 12801 12800 12811 12812 12813 12814 12815<br />
12905 12904 12903 12902 12901 12900 12911 12912 12913 12914 12915<br />
22105 22104 22103 22102 22101 22100 22111 22112 22113 22114 22115<br />
22205 22204 22203 22202 22201 22200 22211 22212 22213 22214 22215<br />
22305 22304 22303 22302 22301 22300 22311 22322 22313 22314 22315<br />
22405 22404 22403 22402 22401 22400 22411 22422 22413 22414 22415<br />
22505 22504 22503 22502 22501 22500 22511 22522 22513 22514 22515<br />
22605 22604 22603 22602 22601 22600 22611 22622 22613 22614 22615<br />
22705 22704 22703 22702 22701 22700 22711 22722 22713 22714 22715<br />
22805 22804 22803 22802 22801 22800 22811 22822 22813 22814 22815<br />
22905 22904 22903 22902 22901 22900 22911 22922 22913 22914 22915<br />
32105 32104 32103 32102 32101 32100 32111 32142 32113 32114 32115<br />
32205 32204 32203 32202 32201 32200 32211 32212 32213 32214 32215<br />
32305 32304 32303 32302 32301 32300 32311 32332 32313 32314 32315<br />
32405 32404 32403 32402 32401 32400 32411 32432 32413 32414 32415<br />
32505 32504 32503 32502 32501 32500 32511 32532 32513 32514 32515<br />
32605 32604 32603 32602 32601 32600 32611 32632 32613 32614 32615<br />
32705 32704 32703 32702 32701 32700 32711 32732 32713 32714 32715<br />
32805 32804 32803 32802 32801 32800 32811 32832 32813 32814 32815<br />
32905 32904 32903 32902 32901 32900 32911 32932 32913 32914 32915<br />
2000-ha<br />
13105 13104 13103 13102 13101 13000 13111 13112 13113 13114 13115<br />
23105 23104 23103 23102 23101 23000 23111 23112 23113 23114 23115<br />
33105 33104 33103 33102 33101 33000 33111 33112 33113 33114 33115
Watershed schematic<br />
24-April 30-April 4-May 6-May 10-May<br />
200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 1a 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 2a 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 3a 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 4a 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 5a<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
Canal<br />
Flow<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
Canal<br />
Flow<br />
Canal<br />
Flow<br />
Canal<br />
Flow<br />
Canal<br />
Flow<br />
Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow<br />
River<br />
Flow<br />
1000 m<br />
1000 m 1000 m 1000 m 1000 m<br />
Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow Ditch Flow<br />
100 ha of<br />
100 ha of<br />
<strong>Rice</strong> Paddies <strong>Rice</strong> Paddies<br />
Canal<br />
Canal<br />
Canal<br />
Canal<br />
Canal<br />
Flow<br />
Flow<br />
Flow<br />
Flow<br />
Flow<br />
200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 1b 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 2b 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 3b 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 4b 200-ha <strong>Rice</strong> Paddy Block 5b<br />
2-May 8-May 14-May 12-May 27-April<br />
Note:<br />
1. Represents a node on <strong>the</strong> ditch.<br />
2.<br />
3.<br />
Represents a treated node on <strong>the</strong> ditch.<br />
Represents a node on <strong>the</strong> canal.<br />
4. Represents a node on <strong>the</strong> river.<br />
5. Total <strong>Rice</strong> Drainage Area = 2000 ha.
Sampling nodes in watershed<br />
1a<br />
( d ) --> ( c ) ( c )
Discussion<br />
• Should <strong>the</strong>re be “standard” scenarios <strong>for</strong> higher tier rice<br />
modeling?<br />
• Simple = Step 2 and Complex = Step 3?<br />
• What ecological endpoint(s) should be used <strong>for</strong> higher tier?<br />
Ditch, Canal, Stream, River?<br />
• Should existing FOCUS wea<strong>the</strong>r be used or wea<strong>the</strong>r in rice<br />
areas (if different from FOCUS scenarios)?<br />
• Probabilistic (i.e. 20 years) versus one year?<br />
• For complex watershed-scale, what variability should be<br />
represented (water management, % treated, etc.)<br />
• Country-specific differences (soils, agronomic practices)?<br />
• <strong>Higher</strong> tier may result in higher PECs
FOCUS wea<strong>the</strong>r stations<br />
Italy:<br />
Piacenza (pzz6.met)<br />
Spain:<br />
Sevilla (szz6.met)<br />
Greece:<br />
Thiva (tzz6.met)<br />
Portugal:<br />
Porto (ozz6.met)<br />
France:<br />
Roujan (r4noirr.met)<br />
Source: MED-RICE Manual
Average monthly rainfall of <strong>the</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r scenarios<br />
(based on 20 years of daily data)<br />
Rainfall (cm)<br />
20<br />
18<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec<br />
Month of <strong>the</strong> year<br />
Italy<br />
Portugal<br />
France<br />
Spain<br />
Greece
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Average monthly rainfall of <strong>the</strong> wea<strong>the</strong>r scenarios<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
Italy‐FOCUS<br />
Po Valley‐MARS<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
France‐FOCUS<br />
Camargue‐MARS<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Rainfall (cm)<br />
Jan<br />
Feb<br />
Mar<br />
Apr<br />
May<br />
Jun<br />
Jul<br />
Aug<br />
Sep<br />
Oct<br />
Nov<br />
Dec<br />
Jan<br />
Feb<br />
Mar<br />
Apr<br />
May<br />
Jun<br />
Jul<br />
Aug<br />
Sep<br />
Oct<br />
Nov<br />
Dec<br />
Rainfall (cm)<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Month of <strong>the</strong> year<br />
12<br />
Month of <strong>the</strong> year<br />
10<br />
Greece‐FOCUS<br />
Thessaloniki‐MARS<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
Spain‐FOCUS<br />
Sevilla‐MARS<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Rainfall (cm)<br />
Jan<br />
Feb<br />
Mar<br />
Apr<br />
May<br />
Jun<br />
Jul<br />
Aug<br />
Sep<br />
Oct<br />
Nov<br />
Dec<br />
Rainfall (cm)<br />
Month of <strong>the</strong> year<br />
Month of <strong>the</strong> year
Watershed heterogeneity<br />
• <strong>Rice</strong> density<br />
• % rice treated<br />
• Planting dates<br />
• Application dates<br />
• Water management<br />
• Drift<br />
Forecast: Appl . date<br />
14,000 Trials Frequency Chart<br />
0 Outliers<br />
.04 9<br />
679<br />
.03 6<br />
509 .2<br />
.02 4<br />
339 .5<br />
.01 2<br />
169 .7<br />
.00 0<br />
-2 5 .00 - 12.50 0.0 0 12. 50 2 5. 00<br />
(d )<br />
x axis: days<br />
0
RICEWQ-EXAMS <strong>Modeling</strong> Plat<strong>for</strong>m
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