the most influential investors in global macro - IIR

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Tuesday , October 19th, 2010 – Day 2 FORUM 8.00 am Morning refreshments 8.30 am Opening remarks from the Chairman Jeremy Hale, Managing Director & Head of Global Macro Strategy, CITI THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK - RECOVERY OR SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISES? 8.45 am THE KEYNOTE ECONOMIC FORECAST Dr. Willem Buiter, Managing Director and Chief Economist, CITI 12.15 pm – 2:00 VIP LUNCH TABLES Lunch for all attendees Signup in advance to sit with some of the most brilliant thinkers in financial markets and geopolitics today. Take this opportunity to exchange business cards and get your questions answered by emailing arodrigues@iirusa.com Check www.globalmacrorisk.com for updates on table hosts 1.00 pm The “LEGENDS OF MACRO” interview Michael Novogratz, Principal and Director, FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC Interviewed by: Jeff Feig, Global Head of Foreign Exchange, CITI 9.30 am The New Dynamic between Emerging Markets and the Developed World: Balance Sheets, Stress Factors and the Implications for Global Asset Allocation In this keynote address Hari will explain why the stark divergence between the fiscal health of developed and emerging markets presents a new, secular investment thesis, which is markedly absent from global institutional portfolios, particularly in global indices. Arguing that traditional concepts of investment risk require a rethink, Hari will examine the investment implications across asset classes, with a particular focus on local currency sovereign bonds, corporate debt and currencies of fiscally responsible emerging markets. Hari N. Hariharan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, NWI MANAGEMENT LP 10.15 am Morning networking break 10.45 am The Outlook for the Eurozone This session will examine the true nature of the crisis in the Eurozone and what changes will need to be made to its monetary framework to ensure its survival in the longer term. Consideration will be given to the monetary policy of the ECB, the implications of Germany’s role in the bailout of fiscal offenders, and the possibility of a more federal structure for Europe in the future. J Kyle Bass, Managing Member & Principal, HAYMAN ADVISORS LP 11.30 am Japan – In the Face of Debt Sustainability Issues and Current Economic Weakness, can Japan Ever Succeed? This session will consider the critical determinants of Japan’s economic performance and inflation outlook, including the key short-term and medium-term trends in monetary policy, public debt, and taxation, and the degree to which a global recovery will improve Japan’s economic prospects Robert Dekle, Professor of Economics, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SPOTLIGHT ON THE US – GROWTH PROJECTIONS, SOVEREIGN DEBT & FISCAL CRISES 2.00 pm A Granular Investigation of US Growth – Given the End to Fiscal Stimulus and with the Largest Boost from Stock-Building Behind us, where is US Growth coming from? Linking the Macro View with a Bottom up Fundamental Analysis. • Evaluating whether continued gradual (if uneven) improvement in financial conditions and typical cyclical dynamics will support firming aggregate demand • Predicting the degree to which consumer spending will continue to outperform consensus expectations • Assessing if business spending on equipment and software will continue its solid growth and internal financing offset credit tightness • Can low mortgage rates and stabilizing prices support continued recovery in housing and how will the flood of foreclosures impact the potential for renewed house price declines? • Analyzing the fresh challenges to the expansion presented by the evolving European sovereign debt crisis • Determining the impact commercial real estate slump will have on GDP growth and how State and Local sector weakness impact the expansion • Projecting the timing of the removal of accommodation and the future direction of unemployment and inflation Chris Varvares, President, MACROECONOMIC ADVISERS, LLC, President, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR BUSINESS ECONOMICS 2.30 pm Examining the Full Implications of Explicit and Implicit US Debt and the Market Implications of a Failure to Find a Timely Resolution to Government Spending This session will examine in detail the extent of explicit US debt and the size of non-contractual commitments that are accruing under social security, government health insurance coverage, and other government programs. The speaker will point out reasons for believing that government reports severely underestimate the size of US explicit plus implicit debt; discuss effects of alternative policy changes; and discuss broader market and financial implications of failing to resolve government spending commitments in a timely manner. Jagadeesh Gokhale, Senior Fellow, CATO INSTITUTE, Author of, “Social Security: A Fresh Look at Policy Alternatives,” (University of Chicago Press, 2010) © 2010 Institute for International Research, Inc. All rights reserved 6 To Register, Call 888.670.8200 Email register@iirusa.com
The world’s first event to convene financial market thought-leaders and geopolitical experts to manage the key fiscal, monetary, policy and economic issues causing today’s market disruptions 3.00 pm Examining the Fiscal Situation of US States and Municipalities The worst recession since the 1930s has caused the steepest decline in state tax receipts on record. As a result, even after making very deep cuts, states continue to face large budget gaps. New shortfalls have opened up in the budgets of at least 41 states for the current fiscal year. In addition, initial indications are that states will face shortfalls as big as or bigger than they faced this year in the upcoming 2011 fiscal year. This presentation will examine the shortfalls still to emerge given the loss of federal stimulus and anticipated tax changes, the implications of 2010-11 budgets and the anticipated outcome of the midterm elections Donald J. Boyd, Senior Fellow, ROCKEFELLER INSTITUTE OF GOVERNMENT 3.30 pm Afternoon networking break 4.00 pm THE NEW POLITICAL AGENDA & REGULATORY PARADIGM Regulatory Risk & Global Capital Flows – Examining the Key Risk Factors of Global Regulatory Reform, the Uncertainties of the Process, Anticipated Outcomes and the Consequences for the Global Banking Sector With particular attention to the Basel Committee proposed changes, the US financial sector reform bill and the European Union measures, this session will examine their cumulative impact on the global banking sector and supply of credit and on economic activities. Speakers will analyze the changes in the pattern of bank lending within countries, cross-border especially to emerging markets in response to regulatory changes and other market uncertainties. Ben Hunt, IRIDIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT Hung Tran, Deputy Managing Director and Counsellor, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF FINANCE 4.45 pm Midterm Elections Update Legendary pollster Charlie Cook will present the latest news on the forthcoming elections. Predicting the number of seats the Republicans might take back, he will assess where the balance of power in the House is likely to reside and what that means for the Administration’s agenda in 2011 going forward. Charles E. Cook, Jr., Publisher, THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT, & Political Analyst, NATIONAL JOURNAL GROUP 5.30 pm Close of Main Conference Day Two Drinks Reception About The Organizers of Global Macro Investing & Geopolitical Risk Forum Global Macro Investing & Geopolitical Risk Forum, together with GAIM are brands of our holding company The Informa Group. http://www.informa.com/. Informa is the largest publicly-owned organizer of conferences and courses in the world with an output of over 8,500 events annually. With events in the US, Europe and Asia, GAIM has become renowned within the alternative investment industry for delivering programs where leading minds share a sophisticated exchange of ideas, offer unique insights into the best investment opportunities in the year ahead and gain timely updates on important changes impacting the investment industry. Our flagship event in the US, “GAIM USA – The Leading Gathering Of Hedge Funds And Their Investors,” has been running for over 10 years and, since 2004, has attracted between 500 and 900 attendees representing key decision makers at many of the most influential investment institutions in the world. Global Macro Investing & Geopolitical Risk Forum is the direct result of feedback from our flagship hedge fund event GAIM USA. GLOBAL MACRO INVESTING & GEOPOLITICAL RISK FORUM was produced with the invaluable help, support and advice of the event Advisory Board: Alan Andreini, Chief Executive Officer, ARMORED WOLF, LLC Paulo Vieira da Cunha, Head of Emerging Markets Research, TANDEM GLOBAL PARTNERS Theodore Economou, General Manager, CERN PENSION FUND Martin J. Gross, Founder and President, SANDALWOOD SECURITIES, INC & PRESIDENT, OF THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY Duncan Hennes, Co-Founder and Partner, ATREVIDA PARTNERS, LLC Anu Murgai, General Partner and Portfolio Manager, SURANYA CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC James G. Rickards, Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence, OMNIS, INC. Ilya Zaides, CIO, KIER GLOBAL Randy Slifka, Managing Principal, SLIFKA ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC Scott Silver, Head of the External Managers Program, Foreign Exchange, CITI Michael Woolfolk, Senior Currency Strategist and Vice President Global Markets Division, BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON WWW.GLOBALMACRORISK.COM COM 7
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