GEOPOLITICAL OVERVIEW OF CONFLICTS 2011 - Portal de ...

Blanca Palcián de Inza
Kosovo: A conflict in the heart of Europe. Precedent or special case?
In the area we are analysing here we can say that the majority religion is Christian,
both Catholic and Orthodox; nevertheless, due to centuries of Turkish
domination there are also many Muslims, above all in Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina
and Macedonia.
Despite the difficult communication routes in this area it has always been the
crossing point between East and West, the nexus between Europe and Asia,
making its geostrategic importance an object of ambition for great empires and
powers, both past and present. To give specific examples, Kosovo currently
hosts the largest American military base in the world outside the US, whilst
Russia has plans to make the region the point of entry for its energy resources
in Europe.
Economically speaking, the Balkan states are not of great importance. Although
there are important differences between the various countries, the postconflict
situation has stabilised, leading to an increase in foreign investment. A
large part of this investment has come from industry, specifically in the area of
mining, especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro,
where there are abundant mineral resources including iron, lead, zinc and
carbon. Special mention should also be made of the attempts to revitalise tourism,
which before the wars was a growing sector in some of these countries.
Belgrade has been referred to as the Barcelona of the Balkans, whilst Mostar
and Dubrovnik live almost exclusively from tourism and in Croatia the sector
represents 16% of GDP.
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Nonetheless, organised crime, corruption and political instability currently appear
to be insurmountable obstacles to further development in the region. On
the other hand, the perspective of joining the European Union represents the
main economic driving force in the Balkans.
All these circumstances are more severe in Kosovo, where unemployment,
poverty and corruption are at very high levels (see Table 2.1).
Table 2.1. Country geopolitical indicators
INDICATOR KOSOVO SPAIN
GDP per capita* 6.600$ 29.400$
Inflation* 3.5% 2%
GDP growth rate* 4% - 0,1%
Balance of trade* -US$2.79 billion -US$63.65 billion
Defence expenditure as % of GDP n/a 0,66%
Human development index ** n/a 0,863
Gini index* 30 32