Energy, Jobs and Skills - Repoa

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The National Context
Tanzania’s economy has grown steadily moving from averages in the 4% range during the
1990s, to 5.7% at the beginning of the decade (2001) and on to 6.7% (2004 to 2006), 7.1%
(2007) and 7.4 %( 2008) 3 . This is attributed, in most recent years, to growth in natural
resource extractive sectors (e.g. mining), services and construction sectors. Agriculture has
contributed modestly although, until recently it makes up the largest portion of GDP 4 .
Nonetheless, the benefits of growth have not significantly or positively impacted on poverty
in most parts of the country. Spans between the data points that provide poverty estimates
are wide, but the trends are clear: there were an estimated 11.4 million people living below
the poverty line in 2000/01, and there were 12.9 million people living in poverty in 2007 5 .
Regardless of percentages, the reality is that there are more poor Tanzanians today than
nearly a decade ago.
The non-correlation between Tanzania’s observed sustained economic growth, and lack of
poverty reduction, is a central concern of many policy makers and development partners.
The reasons for it are many and complex, and include the following:
• Inequality between rural areas and the
capital, and within Dar-es-Salaam itself,
while poverty rates have declined faster
in Dar-es-Salaam than elsewhere
• Inequality estimates which remain
clouded by undeclared incomes and
governance issues.
• Erratic in-year inflation, especially for
food, which reduces the purchasing
power of households and impacts most
on the poorest who purchase more
frequently and in small portions.
• Low agricultural productivity growth of
most staple foods and commodities,
coupled with low-grade and low prices of
export crops.
Estimating Poverty Impact: key lesson from the
1990s
In a small open dependent economy like
Tanzania, the trajectory of the incidence of
poverty cannot solely be deduced from the
evolution of per capita GDP growth coupled
with inequality data derived from two
successive surveys, a decade apart. The reason
is that changes in relative prices can deeply
affect –favorably or adversely – such
economies and the livelihoods of their
population – particularly, of the working poor.
More specifically, poverty incidence may rise,
even if per capita GDP is growing (without
adverse changes in income inequality) because
declining (external) terms of trade may offset
the gains from increased production.
Tanzania has well developed policies in Prof. M. Wuyts, 2005 (REPOA)
most sectors, and an elaborate national
growth and poverty reduction strategy
which has, however, been far less effective than needed. It is framed as the MKUKUTA
(2005-2010), premised on an unmanageably wide range of priorities, and inclusive of all
stakeholders. It follows on the path set by the first PRS (2000-2004, undertaken to obtain
much needed HIPC debt relief) and although broader than its predecessor, both strategies
have failed to connect economic and social development. Fiscal stability has been
maintained, and growth has been steady until 2009. However, sector push has been
3
Expectations for 2009 are considerably lower (4-6%) due to the global economic crisis.
4
Economic Survey, 2007
5
PHDR, 2002 and HBS 2007
3