Rofin-Sinar Hold EUR 16.15

Rofin-Sinar 

(CDAX, Technology) 

Hold 

EUR 16.15 (USD 22.00) 

Price EUR 15.52 

Upside 4.0 % 

Value Indicators: EUR Share data: Description: 

DCF: 23.13 

FCF-Value Potential: 16.20 

Bloomberg: 

Reuters: 

ISIN: 

RSI GR 

RSTI 

US7750431022 

Rofin-Sinar is one of two worldleading 

manufacturers of industrial 

laser equipment 

Market Snapshot: EUR m Shareholders: Risk Profile (WRe): 2012/13e 

Market cap: 498 Freefloat 100.0 % Beta: 1.1 

No. of shares (m): 29 

Price / Book: 

1.1 x 

EV: 455 

Equity Ratio: 77 % 

Freefloat MC: 498 

Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: -1.7 x 

Ø Trad. Vol. (30d): 

3.72 m 

Net Debt / EBITDA: 

-1.4 x 

Q4 better than expected; Flat sales, better result expected in FY 12/13 

Stated Figures Q4/2012: 

FY End: 30.9. 

in USD m 

Q4 

2012 

Q4 

2012e 

Q4 

2011 yoy 2012 2012e 2011 yoy 

Sales 147 129 170 -13 % 540 521 598 -10 % 

EBIT 15 10 22 -29 % 50 45 84 -40 % 

Margin 10.5 % 8.1 % 12.9 % 9.3 % 8.7 % 14.0 % 

Net income 10 4 17 -42 % 35 29 60 -42 % 

Margin 6.8 % 3.3 % 10.2 % 6.4 % 5.5 % 10.0 % 

EPS 0.35 0.27 0.59 -40 % 1.20 1.12 2.06 -42 % 

Comment on Figures: 

Q4 sales were clearly better than expected as especially the marking 

and micro division performed very well 

EBIT was clearly higher than expected due to better fixed cost coverage 

and despite lower gross profit margin 

Order intake at USD 137.4m missed our expectation of USD 140m 

slightly. 

Rofin-Sinar has released figures for Q4 2011/12, which were far better than expected and far better than guided by the company three 

months ago. While this is positive news, due to the higher than expected basis for 2011/12, it will be difficult for the company to grow the topline 

in fiscal 2012/13, which started October 1. The company has guided for Q1 sales of between USD 130-135m based on an order backlog of 

USD 147m as of end of September. This means Q1 will be more or less on the prior year’s level. Given the worsening economic environment 

we also see that level as a realistic run-rate for the following quarters. Our assumption of flat sales thus requires a recovery in Q4 12/13. In 

terms of earnings we are more optimistic as the 2011/12 gross profit margin has suffered from a worsening in product mix which will not 

continue to that extent. In addition, Rofin-Sinar is aiming for a further optimisation of cost structures in its high-power fibre lasers which should 

also help the gross profit margin. Rofin-Sinar has given FY 12/13 guidance for sales of between USD 535-545m and 10-11% for the profit 

before tax margin. 

Balance sheet ratios remain strong with an equity ratio of 75.7% and net cash of USD 78.6m. However, net cash decreased by USD 2m 

in the final quarter as Rofin-Sinar bought back 0.505m shares for a total of USD 10.7m in Q4. In addition, net working capital rose by around 

USD 10m in Q4. Over the next quarters management is aiming to reduce inventory levels. 

The share price is close to our PT having reacted very positively to the figures. However, we see no further triggers short term. We 

regard signs of a global economic recovery as crucial for the Rofin-Sinar share. Thus, we keep our Hold rating for the time being. 

Changes in Estimates: 

FY End: 30.9. 

in USD m 

2012/13e 

(old) 

+ / - 2013/14e 

(old) 

Sales 558 -2.5 % 614 -2.5 % 

EBIT 59 -5.8 % 75 -7.1 % 

EPS 1.37 -2.1 % 1.75 -3.3 % 

DPS 0.00 0.0 % 0.00 0.0 % 

Net Debt -110 n.m. -131 n.m. 

+ / - 

Comment on Changes: 

Sales expectations for the next two business years are lowered on rising 

economic concerns 

Operating earnings should benefit from an improved product mix and 

optimisation of cost structures. But with lower sales, the total EBIT is 

expected to be lower than formerly assumed 

Net debt increase is due to stronger rise in working capital than expected 

and due to share buy-back 

Rel. Performance vs CDAX: 

1 month: 4.8 % 

6 months: -19.2 % 

Year to date: -33.6 % 

Trailing 12 months: -21.4 % 

Company events: 

29.11.12 2011/2012 

A n a l y s t 

Eggert Kuls 

ekuls@warburg-research.com 

+49 (0)40-309537-256 

FY End: 30.9. 

in USD m 

CAGR 

(11/12-13/14e) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Sales 5.2 % 575 350 424 598 540 544 598 

Change Sales yoy 19.9 % -39.2 % 21.2 % 41.1 % -9.6 % 0.7 % 10.0 % 

Gross profit margin 43.1 % 37.8 % 39.3 % 38.8 % 36.4 % 37.6 % 38.8 % 

EBITDA 14.3 % 119 21 56 97 64 69 83 

Margin 20.8 % 6.0 % 13.1 % 16.2 % 11.8 % 12.7 % 13.9 % 

EBIT 17.4 % 96 8 44 84 50 56 69 

Margin 16.7 % 2.3 % 10.4 % 14.0 % 9.3 % 10.3 % 11.6 % 

Net income 17.7 % 65 9 30 60 35 38 48 

EPS 18.5 % 2.09 0.32 1.04 2.06 1.20 1.34 1.69 

EPS adj. 18.5 % 2.09 0.32 1.04 2.06 1.20 1.34 1.69 

DPS - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Dividend Yield 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 

FCFPS 3.00 1.31 1.01 0.76 -0.61 1.26 0.48 

EV / Sales n.a. 1.5 x 1.4 x 1.4 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 0.7 x 

EV / EBITDA n.a. 24.9 x 10.7 x 8.7 x 9.2 x 6.7 x 5.3 x 

EV / EBIT n.a. 64.8 x 13.5 x 10.1 x 11.7 x 8.3 x 6.4 x 

P / E 18.8 x 63.7 x 22.0 x 15.7 x 18.7 x 14.7 x 11.7 x 

P / E adj. 18.8 x 63.7 x 22.0 x 15.7 x 18.7 x 14.7 x 11.7 x 

FCF Yield Potential n.a. 3.4 % 6.1 % 7.7 % 6.9 % 9.6 % 12.1 % 

Net Debt -38 -70 -77 -90 -61 -100 -118 

ROE 15.3 % 2.2 % 7.2 % 13.5 % 7.1 % 7.4 % 8.8 % 

ROCE (NOPAT) n.a. 1.4 % 8.4 % 16.0 % 8.1 % 8.5 % 10.7 % 

Guidance: FY 2012/13: Sales between USD 535-545m, PBT-margin 10-11% 

C O M M E N T Published 14.11.2012 1


Sales development 

in EUR m 

Sales by regions 

2011; in % 

EBIT development 


Source: Warburg Research 



Company Background 

Laser technology company Rofin-Sinar was founded in 1975. In 1996 the company was listed on the American technology stock 

exchange, Nasdaq, as the first 100% spin-off of Siemens AG. 

The company has production sites in the USA, Germany, UK, Finland, Sweden, Spain, Singapore and China. The two operating 

headquarters are based in Plymouth (Michigan, USA) and Hamburg. 

Rofin-Sinar develops and produces laser sources and laser-based system solutions. The technology basis includes CO2 laser, lamp 

and diode-pumped solid-state lasers as well as fibre and diode lasers. 

In addition to its main customer industries, automotive, machine tools as well as semiconductors and electronics, Rofin-Sinar supplies 

various other industries. 

Competitive Quality 

With a world market share of ca. 23% Rofin-Sinar is the clear world market leader in industrial lasers together with the non-listed 

Trumpf (Germany). 

The most important competitors in macro applications are Trumpf, Fanuc, Coherent and Synrad for CO2 lasers and Laserline and 

Jenoptik for diode lasers. 

In the Micro and Marking segments the main competitors are Trumpf, GSI Group, Unitek Miyachi, Lasag, IPG and Control Laser. 

IPG Photonics is market leader in the field of fibre lasers. This technology in part has advantages over the common laser technologies 

such as improved energy efficiency. Rofin-Sinar is the No. 2 here. 

In the past the sector generally grew by ca. 10% p.a. and more over an economic cycle. Growth in the laser industry benefits from a 

continuous expansion of the application possibilities. 

EBT development 


Sales by segments 

2011; in % 

Net income development 







DCF model 

Detailed forecast period Transitional period Term. Value 

Figures in USD m 12/13e 13/14e 14/15e 15/16e 16/17e 17/18e 18/19e 19/20e 20/21e 21/22e 22/23e 23/24e 24/25e 

Sales 544 598 646 698 754 814 879 949 1,025 1,107 1,196 1,256 1,319 

Sales change 0.7 % 10.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 8.0 % 5.0 % 5.0 % 2.5 % 

EBIT 56 69 78 84 90 98 105 114 123 133 144 151 158 

EBIT-margin 10.3 % 11.6 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 12.0 % 

Tax rate (EBT) 33.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 

NOPAT 37 47 53 57 61 66 72 77 84 90 98 102 108 

Depreciation 14 14 16 17 18 20 21 23 25 27 29 29 30 

in % of Sales 2.5 % 2.3 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 

Changes in provisions 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Change in Liquidity from 

- Working Capital -11 19 19 23 25 27 29 32 34 37 40 27 28 

- Capex 17 18 19 20 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 34 36 

Capex in % of Sales 3.1 % 3.0 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.8 % 2.7 % 2.7 % 

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Free Cash Flow (WACC 

Model) 

46 25 31 31 33 36 39 42 45 49 53 71 74 82 

PV of FCF 46 23 26 24 24 23 23 23 23 23 22 27 27 461 

share of PVs 11.97 % 30.05 % 57.98 % 

Model parameter 

Valuation (m) 

Derivation of WACC: Derivation of Beta: Present values 2024/25e 334 

Terminal Value 461 

Debt ratio 15.00 % Financial Strength 1.00 Financial liabilities 23 

Cost of debt 4.2 % Liquidity 1.00 Pension liabilities 18 

Market return 9.00 % Cyclicality 1.50 Hybrid capital 0 

Risk free rate 4.00 % Transparency 1.00 Minority interest 5 

Others 1.20 Market val. of investments 0 

Liquidity 101 No. of shares (m) 28.3 

WACC 8.88 % Beta 1.14 Equity Value 851 Value per share (USD) 30.07 

Sensitivity Value per Share (USD) 

Terminal Growth 

Delta EBIT-margin 

Beta (WACC) 1.75 % 2.00 % 2.25 % 2.50 % 2.75 % 3.00 % 3.25 % Beta (WACC) -1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp 0.0 +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp 

1.38 (9.9 %) 24.63 24.99 25.38 25.79 26.24 26.71 27.22 1.38 (9.9 %) 21.39 22.86 24.32 25.79 27.26 28.73 30.20 

1.26 (9.4 %) 26.36 26.80 27.27 27.77 28.31 28.89 29.52 1.26 (9.4 %) 23.02 24.60 26.19 27.77 29.35 30.93 32.51 

1.20 (9.1 %) 27.32 27.80 28.32 28.87 29.47 30.12 30.82 1.20 (9.1 %) 23.94 25.58 27.23 28.87 30.52 32.16 33.81 

1.14 (8.9 %) 28.36 28.89 29.46 30.07 30.74 31.46 32.24 1.14 (8.9 %) 24.93 26.64 28.36 30.07 31.78 33.50 35.21 

1.08 (8.6 %) 29.47 30.05 30.69 31.37 32.11 32.92 33.80 1.08 (8.6 %) 26.00 27.79 29.58 31.37 33.16 34.95 36.74 

1.02 (8.4 %) 30.67 31.32 32.02 32.79 33.62 34.52 35.52 1.02 (8.4 %) 27.18 29.05 30.92 32.79 34.66 36.53 38.40 

0.90 (7.9 %) 33.39 34.19 35.07 36.03 37.08 38.25 39.53 0.90 (7.9 %) 29.86 31.92 33.98 36.03 38.09 40.14 42.20 

The industrial laser sector has grown by some 10% p.a. over a cycle during the last decades. 

We expect CAGR of 8% over the next 10 years due to the higher basis reached meanwhile 

Capex at below 3% of sales is due to a low vertical integration for an Engineering company 



Free Cash Flow Value Potential 

Warburg Research's valuation tool "FCF Value Potential" reflects the ability of the company to generate sustainable free cash flows. It is based on the 

"FCF potential" - a FCF "ex growth" figure - which assumes unchanged working capital and pure maintenance capex. A value indication is derived by 

discounting the “FCF potential” of a given year with the weighted costs of capital. The fluctuating value indications over time add a timing element to the 

DCF model (our preferred valuation tool). 

in USD m 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Net Income before minorities n.a. 10 30 61 35 39 49 

+ Depreciation + Amortisation n.a. 13 12 13 14 14 14 

- Net Interest Income n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 

- Maintenance Capex n.a. 5 6 9 8 8 9 

+ Other n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 

= Free Cash Flow Potential n.a. 18 36 65 41 44 54 

Free Cash Flow Yield Potential n/a 3.4 % 6.1 % 7.7 % 6.9 % 9.6 % 12.1 % 

WACC 8.88 % 8.88 % 8.88 % 8.88 % 8.88 % 8.88 % 8.88 % 

= Enterprise Value (EV) n.a. 524 593 846 591 463 445 

= Fair Enterprise Value n.a. 198 407 732 458 500 608 

- Net Debt (Cash) n.a. -79 -79 -79 -79 -119 -138 

- Pension Liabilities n.a. 18 18 18 18 19 20 

- Other n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 

- Market value of minorities n.a. 5 5 5 5 5 5 

+ Market value of investments n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 

= Fair Market Capitalisation n.a. 254 463 788 514 596 721 

No. of shares (total) (m) 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 

= Fair value per share (USD) n.a. 8.81 16.08 27.47 17.89 20.69 25.04 

premium (-) / discount (+) in % 4.9 % 26.9 % 

Sensitivity Fair value per Share (USD) 

11.88 % n.a. 7.20 12.73 21.32 14.06 16.59 20.05 

10.88 % n.a. 7.68 13.72 23.10 15.17 17.81 21.53 

9.87 % n.a. 8.26 14.90 25.24 16.51 19.27 23.30 

WACC 8.88 % n.a. 8.97 16.36 27.86 18.15 21.06 25.48 

7.88 % n.a. 9.85 18.19 31.14 20.20 23.30 28.20 

6.87 % n.a. 11.00 20.55 35.38 22.85 26.20 31.72 

5.88 % n.a. 12.53 23.71 41.07 26.40 30.08 36.44 

FCF value potential going forward is mainly driven by the expectaion of rising results 

Maintenance capex is expected to be at 1.5% p.a. only due to a low vertical integration and thus fixed asset base 



Valuation 

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Price / Book 3.0 x 1.4 x 1.6 x 1.9 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 

Book value per share ex intangibles 9.82 10.73 10.75 12.94 13.05 14.01 15.44 

EV / Sales n.a. 1.5 x 1.4 x 1.4 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 0.7 x 

EV / EBITDA n.a. 24.9 x 10.7 x 8.7 x 9.2 x 6.7 x 5.3 x 

EV / EBIT n.a. 64.8 x 13.5 x 10.1 x 11.7 x 8.3 x 6.4 x 

EV / EBIT adj.* n.a. 64.8 x 13.5 x 10.1 x 11.7 x 8.3 x 6.4 x 

P / FCF 66.2 x 12.4 x 23.6 x 33.0 x 105.8 x n.a. n.a. 

P / E 18.8 x 63.7 x 22.0 x 15.7 x 18.7 x 14.7 x 11.7 x 

P / E adj.* 18.8 x 63.7 x 22.0 x 15.7 x 18.7 x 14.7 x 11.7 x 

Dividend Yield 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 

Free Cash Flow Yield Potential n.a. 3.4 % 6.1 % 7.7 % 6.9 % 9.6 % 12.1 % 

*Adjustments made for: - 



Consolidated profit and loss 

In USD m 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Sales 575 350 424 598 540 544 598 

Change Sales yoy 19.9 % -39.2 % 21.2 % 41.1 % -9.6 % 0.7 % 10.0 % 

COGS 327 218 257 366 344 339 366 

Gross profit 248 132 166 232 196 205 232 

Gross margin 43.1 % 37.8 % 39.3 % 38.8 % 36.4 % 37.6 % 38.8 % 

Research and development 41 32 30 38 43 45 49 

Sales and marketing 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Administration expenses 104 89 90 108 101 102 111 

Other operating expenses 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Other operating income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Unfrequent items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

EBITDA 119 21 56 97 64 69 83 

Margin 20.8 % 6.0 % 13.1 % 16.2 % 11.8 % 12.7 % 13.9 % 

Depreciation of fixed assets 16 9 9 10 11 11 12 

EBITA 103 12 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Amortisation of intangible fixed assets 7 4 2 3 2 2 2 

Goodwill amortization 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

EBIT 96 8 44 84 50 56 69 

Margin 16.7 % 2.3 % 10.4 % 14.0 % 9.3 % 10.3 % 11.6 % 

EBIT adj. 96 8 44 84 50 56 69 

Interest income 5 1 1 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Interest expenses 2 2 1 1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Other financial income (loss) -1 7 2 3 2 2 2 

EBT 98 14 46 86 52 57 70 

Margin 17.1 % 4.1 % 10.8 % 14.4 % 9.6 % 10.4 % 11.8 % 

Total taxes 33 5 15 26 17 19 22 

Net income from continuing operations 64 10 30 61 35 39 49 

Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Net income before minorities 64 10 30 61 35 39 49 

Minority interest 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 

Net income 65 9 30 60 35 38 48 

Margin 11.3 % 2.6 % 7.0 % 10.0 % 6.4 % 7.0 % 8.0 % 

Number of shares, average 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 

EPS 2.09 0.32 1.04 2.06 1.20 1.34 1.69 

EPS adj. 2.09 0.32 1.04 2.06 1.20 1.34 1.69 

*Adjustments made for: 

Guidance: FY 2012/13: Sales between USD 535-545m, PBT-margin 10-11% 

Financial Ratios 

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Total Operating Costs / Sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Operating Leverage 0.7 x 2.3 x 21.0 x 2.2 x 4.1 x 15.3 x 2.4 x 

EBITDA / Interest expenses 51.2 x 12.0 x 57.0 x 131.9 x n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Tax rate (EBT) 34.0 % 36.2 % 33.6 % 30.3 % 33.2 % 33.0 % 32.0 % 

Dividend Payout Ratio 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 

Sales per Employee 338,399 200,103 241,902 303,125 263,474 261,491 279,576 

Sales, EBITDA 


Operating Performance 

in % 

Performance per Share 






Consolidated balance sheet 

In USD m 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Assets 

Goodwill and other intangible assets 103 105 100 103 128 128 128 

thereof other intangible assets 11 11 10 12 25 25 25 

thereof Goodwill 92 94 90 91 103 103 103 

Property, plant and equipment 56 56 53 66 60 65 71 

Financial assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Other long-term assets 6 15 18 18 25 24 29 

Fixed assets 166 175 171 187 213 217 228 

Inventories 153 136 152 189 202 190 203 

Accounts receivable 118 79 98 119 108 109 117 

Liquid assets 116 119 116 130 101 142 161 

Other short-term assets 19 20 22 29 28 27 25 

Current assets 406 355 387 467 440 468 506 

Total Assets 584 540 558 654 653 684 734 

Liabilities and shareholders' equity 

Subscribed capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Capital reserve 189 196 205 218 223 228 233 

Retained earnings 294 304 333 394 428 466 514 

Other equity components -82 -82 -125 -138 -149 -166 -173 

Shareholder's equity 402 418 414 474 502 524 565 

Minority interest 2 3 4 5 5 5 8 

Total equity 405 422 417 479 507 529 572 

Provisions 75 63 80 101 96 103 107 

thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations 12 17 18 18 18 19 20 

Financial liabilites (total) 67 31 21 23 23 23 23 

thereof short-term financial liabilities 55 19 5 8 17 17 17 

Accounts payable 21 13 23 27 27 27 29 

Other liabilities 18 10 17 24 13 7 11 

Liabilities 181 118 141 175 159 160 169 

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 584 540 558 654 653 684 734 


2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Efficiency of Capital Employment 

Operating Assets Turnover n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Capital Employed Turnover 1.6 x 1.0 x 1.2 x 1.5 x 1.2 x 1.3 x 1.3 x 

ROA 39.2 % 5.2 % 17.5 % 32.2 % 16.2 % 17.6 % 21.0 % 

Return on Capital 

ROCE (NOPAT) n.a. 1.4 % 8.4 % 16.0 % 8.1 % 8.5 % 10.7 % 

ROE 15.3 % 2.2 % 7.2 % 13.5 % 7.1 % 7.4 % 8.8 % 

Adj. ROE 15.3 % 2.2 % 7.2 % 13.5 % 7.1 % 7.4 % 8.8 % 

Balance sheet quality 

Net Debt -38 -70 -77 -90 -61 -100 -118 

Net Financial Debt -50 -88 -96 -108 -79 -119 -138 

Net Gearing -9.3 % -16.7 % -18.6 % -18.8 % -12.0 % -19.0 % -20.6 % 

Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA -41.7 % -415.7 % -172.0 % -111.2 % -123.1 % -172.3 % -165.5 % 

Book Value / Share 13.2 14.3 14.2 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.9 

Book value per share ex intangibles 9.8 10.7 10.7 12.9 13.0 14.0 15.4 

ROCE Development 

Net debt 


Book Value per Share 

in EUR 






Consolidated cash flow statement 

In USD m 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Net income 64 9 30 61 35 39 49 

Depreciation of fixed assets 16 9 9 10 11 11 12 

Amortisation of goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Amortisation of intangible assets 7 4 2 3 2 2 2 

Increase/decrease in long-term provisions 1 -17 18 18 -5 7 4 

Other non-cash income and expenses -2 22 -14 -15 -22 -10 -10 

Cash Flow 86 27 47 77 22 50 57 

Increase / decrease in inventory -15 21 -21 -28 -13 12 -13 

Increase / decrease in accounts receivable -12 39 -23 -23 11 -1 -8 

Increase / decrease in accounts payable 2 -9 11 3 0 0 2 

Increase / decrease in other working capital positions -28 -22 24 21 0 0 0 

Increase / decrease in working capital (total) -53 28 -10 -27 -2 11 -19 

Net cash provided by operating activities 33 55 37 50 22 52 32 

Investments in intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Investments in property, plant and equipment 14 8 9 22 16 17 18 

Payments for acquisitions 30 12 1 11 27 0 0 

Financial investments 129 2 11 9 0 9 10 

Income from asset disposals 225 4 13 13 10 10 10 

Net cash provided by investing activities -52 18 8 29 39 16 18 

Change in financial liabilities 25 -36 -10 -3 0 0 0 

Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Purchase of own shares -120 0 -19 -9 -11 0 0 

Capital measures 5 0 3 7 5 5 5 

Other 0 0 0 0 -4 0 0 

Net cash provided by financing activities -90 -36 -27 -5 -10 5 5 

Change in liquid funds -6 2 2 17 -27 41 19 

Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash 2 0 -7 0 1 0 0 

Cash and cash equivalent at end of period 114 116 111 127 101 142 161 


2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13e 2013/14e 

Cash Flow 

Free Cash Flow 85 37 29 21 -17 36 14 

Free Cash Flow / Sales 3.1 % 13.6 % 6.7 % 4.7 % 1.1 % 6.4 % 2.3 % 

Free Cash Flow Potential n.a. 18 36 65 41 44 54 

Free Cash Flow / Sales 3.1 % 13.6 % 6.7 % 4.7 % 1.1 % 6.4 % 2.3 % 

Free Cash Flow / Net Profit 27.9 % 519.6 % 94.6 % 47.0 % 17.7 % 91.3 % 28.5 % 

Interest Received / Avg. Cash 3.1 % 1.2 % 0.5 % 0.7 % n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Interest Paid / Avg. Debt 4.3 % 3.6 % 3.7 % 3.4 % n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Management of Funds 

Investment ratio -2.5 % -2.2 % -2.0 % -3.6 % -3.0 % -3.1 % -3.0 % 

Maint. Capex / Sales n.a. 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 

Capex / Dep -62.6 % -60.0 % -74.0 % -167.2 % -118.5 % -125.9 % -128.6 % 

Avg. Working Capital / Sales n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 

Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors 556.8 % 603.7 % 421.3 % 440.9 % 405.1 % 403.7 % 403.4 % 

Inventory Turnover 2.1 x 1.6 x 1.7 x 1.9 x 1.7 x 1.8 x 1.8 x 

Receivables collection period (days) 75 83 84 73 73 73 71 

Payables payment period (days) 24 22 33 27 28 29 29 

Cash conversion cycle (Days) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 

CAPEX and Cash Flow 


Free Cash Flow Generation 

Working Capital 






LEGAL DISCLAIMER 

This research report was prepared by the Warburg Research GmbH, a subsidiary of the M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and is passed on 

by the M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA. It contains selected information and does not purport to be complete. The report is based on 

publicly available information and data ("the information") believed to be accurate and complete. Warburg Research GmbH neither 

does examine the information to be accurate and complete, nor guarantees its accuracy and completeness. Possible errors or 

incompleteness of the information do not constitute grounds for liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA or Warburg Research GmbH for 

damages of any kind whatsoever, and M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are not liable for indirect and/or direct 

and/or consequential damages. In particular, neither M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA nor Warburg Research GmbH are liable for the 

statements, plans or other details contained in these analyses concerning the examined companies, their affiliated companies, 

strategies, economic situations, market and competitive situations, regulatory environment, etc. Although due care has been taken in 

compiling this research report, it cannot be excluded that it is incomplete or contains errors. M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg 

Research GmbH, their shareholders and employees are not liable for the accuracy and completeness of the statements, estimations 

and the conclusions derived from the information contained in this document. Provided a research report is being transmitted in 

connection with an existing contractual relationship, i.e. financial advisory or similar services, the liability of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA 

and Warburg Research GmbH shall be restricted to gross negligence and wilful misconduct. In case of failure in essential tasks, 

M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are liable for normal negligence. In any case, the liability of M.M.Warburg & 

CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH is limited to typical, expectable damages. This research report does not constitute an offer or 

a solicitation of an offer for the purchase or sale of any security. Partners, directors or employees of M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA, 

Warburg Research GmbH or affiliated companies may serve in a position of responsibility, i.e. on the board of directors of companies 

mentioned in the report. Opinions expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. All rights reserved. 

COPYRIGHT NOTICE 

This work including all its parts is protected by copyright. Any use beyond the limits provided by copyright law without permission is 

prohibited and punishable. This applies, in particular, to reproductions, translations, microfilming, and storage and processing on 

electronic media of the entire content or parts thereof. 

DISCLOSURE ACCORDING TO § 34B OF THE GERMAN SECURITIES TRADING ACT AND FINANV 

The valuation underlying the rating of the company analysed in this report is based on generally accepted and widely used methods of 

fundamental valuation, such as the DCF model, Free Cash Flow Value Potential, peer group comparison and – where applicable – a 

sum-of-the-parts model. 

M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH have set up internal organisational and administrative arrangements to 

prevent and avoid possible conflicts of interest and, where applicable, to disclose them. 

Valuations, ratings and price targets for the companies analysed by Warburg Research GmbH are subject to constant reviews and 

may therefore change, if any of the fundamental factors underlying these items do change. 

All share prices given in this equity analysis are closing prices on the date given in the analysis, except where stated otherwise. 

Neither Warburg Research GmbH’s analysts nor M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA’s analysts do receive any payments directly or indirectly 

from any investment banking activity of M.M.Warburg Bank or an affiliated company. 

M.M.Warburg & CO KGaA and Warburg Research GmbH are under supervision of the BaFin – German Federal Financial Supervisory 

Authority. 

SOURCES 

All data and consensus estimates have been obtained from FactSet except where stated otherwise. 



Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a 

securities analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis. 

A conflict of interest is assumed, in particular, when the enterprise preparing the analysis … 

-1- … or companies affiliated with this enterprise holds 5% or more of the share capital of the analysed company 

-2- 

-3- 

-4- 

… or companies affiliated with this enterprise was a member in a consortium which acquired the shares of the 

analysed company within the last twelve months 

… or companies affiliated with this enterprise manages the securities of the analysed company on the basis of 

an existing contract 

… or companies affiliated with this enterprise over the previous 12 months has been providing investment 

banking services for the analysed company for which a compensation has been or will be paid 

-5- … effected an agreement with the analysed company for the preparation of the financial analysis 

-6- … or companies affiliated with this enterprise regularly trade in shares or derivatives of the analysed company 

-7- 

… or the analyst responsible for this company has other important financial interests in relation to the analysed 

company such as e.g. the performance of mandates for the analysed company 

Company Disclosure Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months) 

Rofin-Sinar 3, 6 http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/US7750431022.htm 



INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION 

Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target 

in the opinion of the analyst who covers this financial instrument. 

-B- Buy: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months. 

-H- 

Hold: 

The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the 

next 12 months. 

-S- Sell: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months. 

“-“ Rating suspended: The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company. 

WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING 

Rating Number of stocks % of Universe 

Buy 111 58 

Hold 67 35 

Sell 11 6 

Rating suspended 3 2 

Total 192 100 

WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING … 

… Looking only at companies for which a disclosure according to § 34b of the Germany Securities Trading Act and the 

FinAnV has to be made. 

Rating Number of stocks % of Universe 

Buy 96 60 

Hold 55 35 

Sell 6 4 

Rating suspended 2 1 

Total 159 100 

PRICE AND RATING HISTORY ROFIN-SINAR AS OF 14.11.2012 

The chart has markings if Warburg Research GmbH 

changed its rating in the last 12 months. Every marking 

represents the date and closing price on the day of the 

rating change. 



RESEARCH 

Christian Bruns +49 40 309537-253 Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 

Head of Research cbruns@warburg-research.com Head of Research hrueschmeier@warburg-research.com 

Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 Roland Rapelius +49 40 309537-220 

Engineering, Logistics ccohrs@warburg-research.com Engineering, Logistics rrapelius@warburg-research.com 

Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Jochen Reichert +49 40 309537-130 

Software, IT fellmann@warburg-research.com Telco, Internet, Media jreichert@warburg-research.com 

Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Christopher Rodler +49 40 309537-290 

Retail, Consumer Goods jfrey@warburg-research.com Utilities crodler@warburg-research.com 

Ulrich Huwald +49 40 309537-255 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170 

Health Care, Pharma uhuwald@warburg-research.com Technology mschaumann@warburg-research.com 

Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257 Susanne Schwartze +49 40 309537-155 

Retail, Consumer Goods tkleibauer@warburg-research.com Telco, Internet, Media sschwartze@warburg-research.com 

Torsten Klingner +49 40 309537-260 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250 

Real Estate tklingner@warburg-research.com Chemicals oschwarz@warburg-research.com 

Eggert Kuls +49 40 309537-256 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259 

Engineering ekuls@warburg-research.com Automobiles, Car Suppliers mtonn@warburg-research.com 

Frank Laser +49 40 309537-235 Björn Voss +49 40 309537-254 

Construction, Industrials flaser@warburg-research.com Steel, Car Suppliers bvoss@warburg-research.com 

Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140 

Banks, Financial Services aplaesier@warburg-research.com Software, IT awolf@warburg-research.com 

Malte Räther +49 40 309537-185 Stephan Wulf +49 40 309537-150 

Technology, Telco, Internet mraether@warburg-research.com Utilities swulf@warburg-research.com 

SALES 

SALES TRADING 

Holger Nass +49 40 3282-2669 Oliver Merckel +49 40 3282-2634 

Head of Equity Sales, USA hnass@mmwarburg.com Head of Sales Trading omerckel@mmwarburg.com 

Klaus Schilling +49 40 3282-2664 Gudrun Bolsen +49 40 3282-2679 

Dep. Head of Equity Sales, GER kschilling@mmwarburg.com Sales Trading gbolsen@mmwarburg.com 

Christian Alisch +49 40 3282-2667 Bastian Quast +49 40 3282-2701 

Scandinavia, Spain calisch@mmwarburg.com Sales Trading bquast@mmwarburg.com 

Robert Conredel +49 40 3282-2633 Patrick Schepelmann +49 40 3282-2700 

Germany rconredel@mmwarburg.com Sales Trading pschepelmann@mmwarburg.com 

Matthias Fritsch +49 40 3282-2696 Thekla Struve +49 40 3282-2668 

United Kingdom mfritsch@mmwarburg.com Sales Trading tstruve@mmwarburg.com 

Marie-Therese Grübner +49 40 3282-2630 Jörg Treptow +49 40 3262-2658 

France mgruebner@mmwarburg.com Sales Trading jtreptow@mmwarburg.com 

Michael Kriszun +49 40 3282-2695 

United Kingdom mkriszun@mmwarburg.com Support 

Marc Niemann +49 40 3282-2660 Katharina Bruns +49 40 3282-2694 

Germany mniemann@mmwarburg.com Roadshow/Marketing kbruns@mmwarburg.com 

Dirk Rosenfelder +49 40 3282-2692 

Austria, Switzerland 

drosenfelder@mmwarburg.com 

Julian Straube +49 40 3282-2666 

Small & Mid Caps 

jstraube@mmwarburg.com 

Philipp Stumpfegger +49 40 3282-2635 

Australia, United Kingdom 

pstumpfegger@mmwarburg.com 

MACRO RESEARCH 

Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572 

Macro Research 

cklude@mmwarburg.com 

Matthias Thiel +49 40 3282-2401 

Macro Research 

mthiel@mmwarburg.com 

Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439 

Investment Strategy 

cjasperneite@mmwarburg.com 

Our research can be found under: 

Warburg Research research.mmwarburg.com/en/index.html Thomson www.thomson.com 

Bloomberg MMWA GO Reuters www.knowledge.reuters.com 

FactSet www.factset.com Capital IQ www.capitaliq.com 

For access please contact: 

Andrea Carstensen +49 40 3282-2632 Kerstin Muthig +49 40 3282-2703 

Sales Assistance acarstensen@mmwarburg.com Sales Assistance kmuthig@mmwarburg.com

Rofin-Sinar Hold EUR 16.15

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