ODI Livestock breeds WP.pdf - Roger Blench

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2. The Present Situation
2.1 Historical data
To model change over time in livestock breeds within their biotic and cultural environments in any
quantitative way, reliable time-series data would be required. Since nothing comparable with the
NNLRS has ever been conducted in Nigeria, earlier records are inevitably anecdotal. For example,
the NNLRS recorded the presence of Azawak cattle in Nigeria, although these were not mentioned
in earlier sources. This may be either because they were not present or because they were simply
not observed. This suggests that care must be used in interpreting earlier sources and that where
possible they should be cross-checked against pastoralists’ accounts.
It is not usual to include observations of travellers or ethnographic accounts in studies of livestock
distribution. Since some early writers describing the interior of Nigeria made observations that run
counter to established wisdom this working paper incorporates their accounts (see Blench, in press,
d for a summary of the different methods of reconstructing livestock history).
2.2 Background
2.2.1 Existing numerical data
Estimates of national livestock populations throughout West Africa have to be treated with
considerable reserve. In the case of Nigeria, figures have been cited in many Federal Government
documents, often with no indication of the source, or description of the methods of estimation. In
some cases, cattle population figures have been derived indirectly from various administrative
sources, including jangali tax (a head tax on cattle being moved), vaccination returns, slaughter
records, trade movements and exports (Fricke, 1979). Interpreting such information is highly
problematic as unverifiable assumptions must be made about what proportion of a total population
is unrepresented. Data collection is rarely standardised or methodical and any given statistic is
usually incomplete. Reviews of existing population estimates showed that in some years the
discrepancy between the Federal Office of Statistics’ estimate and the FAO estimate was of the
order of 100% (RIM, 1992, II:32). Given these uncertainties, together with the fact that current
livestock populations are extrapolated from old data, it is not surprising that such estimates have
always been viewed with a degree of scepticism (Colville and Shaw, 1950).
2.2.2 Data from the Nigerian National Livestock Resource Survey (NNLRS), 1990
Due to a long-term dissatisfaction with existing data collection methods and the difficulties of
reconciling past figures, the Federal Government of Nigeria commissioned a fresh study of the
national livestock resource. A preliminary survey in two states was undertaken in 1989 (RIM, 1989)
and the National Livestock Resource Survey took place throughout 1990, with periods of intensive
fieldwork from January to May, and August to December. The final report was submitted in 1992
(RIM, 1992). A more informal account of the survey is given in Bourn et al. (1994) and Blench (in
press, e).
The complete methodology used in the NNLRS is set out the final report, but the principal
methodology was combined air-ground survey. Systematic low-level aerial transects were flown on