Overview of basic concepts in Statistics and Probability - SAMSI
Overview of basic concepts in Statistics and Probability - SAMSI
Overview of basic concepts in Statistics and Probability - SAMSI
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Example: Incidence <strong>of</strong> a rare disease<br />
<strong>Overview</strong> <strong>of</strong><br />
<strong>basic</strong> <strong>concepts</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Statistics</strong><br />
<strong>and</strong><br />
<strong>Probability</strong><br />
Avanti<br />
Athreya<br />
Prelim<strong>in</strong>aries<br />
Important<br />
distributions,<br />
scal<strong>in</strong>g laws,<br />
<strong>and</strong> the CLT<br />
Parametric<br />
estimation <strong>and</strong><br />
hypothesis<br />
test<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Example: Suppose the <strong>in</strong>cidence <strong>of</strong> a disease is 1 <strong>in</strong> 1000, <strong>and</strong><br />
suppose that a diagnostic test is such that if an <strong>in</strong>dividual has<br />
the disease, the test result will be positive 99 percent <strong>of</strong> the<br />
time, but if the <strong>in</strong>dividual doesn’t have the disease, the test<br />
result will be positive 2 percent <strong>of</strong> the time. Given that a<br />
r<strong>and</strong>omly selected <strong>in</strong>dividual tests positive, what is the<br />
probability he or she is actually <strong>in</strong>fected?
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