MBTA Review - November 1, 2009

The Outlook Is Bleak
Our “frank
assessment”
concludes that a
structural operating
deficit has existed
for many years.
The legislation known as “Forward Funding” that was implemented in
July 2000 to make the MBTA financially self-sufficient was a great idea.
Unfortunately, the MBTA plan developed to implement Forward Funding
was unrealistic and destined to fail. As a result, a structural operating
deficit between expenses and revenue has existed for many years—
predating this administration.
Through depleting cash reserves, restructuring debt and delaying planned
debt payments, the MBTA has managed to meet its requirement to balance
its annual budget. Unfortunately, the repeated restructuring of hundreds of
millions of dollars in debt payments achieved the exact opposite intent of
the legislation that sought to transform the MBTA, and postponed the day
of reckoning for repaying deferred interest and principal.
As homeowners painfully learned in the sub-prime mortgage debacle, it
is only a matter of time before those delayed payments are due.
That time has arrived.
The MBTA must now face larger and growing deficits over the next
few years as a result of these restructurings, added debt and many
unavoidable costs that are now built into the system.
This year the MBTA’s FY10 budget faced a deficit of $186M. After MBTA
management exercised $26M in budget cuts, the remaining shortfall was
resolved when the Legislature authorized the transfer of $160M in new
sales tax revenues to the MBTA, on top of the MBTA’s existing sales tax
revenue base. Assuming this $160M amount is dedicated each year for
the next four, it represents only a partial solution to emerging deficits.
Based on current revenue and expenditure trends, the MBTA will post
cumulative deficits through FY14 as follows:
Projected MBTA
Cumulative Deficits
FY11-FY14
0
(300)
FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014
$70M
$155M
$230M
$329M
$ Millions
(600)
(900)
With $160M in new
sales tax revenue
Without new sales
tax revenue
$475M
$809M
$550M
$1.19B
(1,200)
MBTA Review | November 2009
p. 3