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sinning in the basement: what are the rules? the ten commandments ...

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584 KENNEDY<br />

First, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> words of Hendry and Richard (1983, p. 112), do<strong>in</strong>g applied work is<br />

difficult:<br />

The data generation process is complicated, data <strong>are</strong> scarce and of uncerta<strong>in</strong><br />

relevance, experimentation is uncontrolled, and available <strong>the</strong>ories <strong>are</strong> highly<br />

abstract and r<strong>are</strong>ly uncontroversial.<br />

Verbeek (2000, p. 1) has a blunter way of express<strong>in</strong>g this: ‘Econometrics is much<br />

easier without data’. These observations expla<strong>in</strong> comments such as <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

by Wickens (1997, p. 523):<br />

After a mere 30 years as an applied econometrician (a lowly subspecies r<strong>are</strong>ly<br />

to be found <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> halls of fame of Econometrica) I am still wrestl<strong>in</strong>g with <strong>the</strong><br />

problem of how to comb<strong>in</strong>e <strong>the</strong>ory with evidence.<br />

The Wickens quote po<strong>in</strong>ts to a second reason for lack of emphasis on <strong>the</strong> basics<br />

of applied work — do<strong>in</strong>g quality applied work br<strong>in</strong>gs little prestige <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />

profession, a fact lamented by Hendry and Leamer: ‘As a profession we don’t<br />

value empirical work very highly’ (Hendry et al., 1990, p. 180).<br />

A third reason is app<strong>are</strong>nt from an earlier quote from Magnus (1999),<br />

lament<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> lack of <strong>ten</strong>sion, and thus lack of communication, between<br />

econometric <strong>the</strong>orists and applied economists. It is natural, and common, for<br />

economics departments to assign econometric <strong>the</strong>orists to teach applied<br />

econometrics courses. If <strong>the</strong>re is little communication between econometric<br />

<strong>the</strong>orists and applied econometricians, it is not surpris<strong>in</strong>g that <strong>the</strong> ‘<strong>rules</strong> of<br />

<strong>s<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g</strong>’ <strong>are</strong> not taught.<br />

Fourth, as noted by J. Bailar (1994, p. 18), ‘We teach <strong>what</strong> we enjoy teach<strong>in</strong>g<br />

and <strong>what</strong> we know how to teach, not <strong>what</strong> <strong>the</strong> world needs’. This is probably <strong>the</strong><br />

crux of <strong>the</strong> problem: econometrics <strong>in</strong>structors believe <strong>the</strong>ir students don’t need to<br />

be taught <strong>the</strong> ‘<strong>rules</strong> of <strong>s<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g</strong>’ described above, and <strong>in</strong> any event <strong>the</strong>y would be<br />

uncomfortable teach<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>m because <strong>the</strong>se <strong>rules</strong> don’t have <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tellectual rigor<br />

and clean answers so prized by econometric <strong>the</strong>orists. A more controversial view<br />

is expressed by B. Bailar (1988, p. 7):<br />

Part of <strong>the</strong> problem is that many of <strong>the</strong> people who teach, whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>in</strong><br />

undergraduate or graduate courses, have little or no practical experience <strong>in</strong><br />

<strong>what</strong> <strong>the</strong>y teach: Their horizons <strong>are</strong> largely limited to <strong>what</strong> appears <strong>in</strong> journals<br />

and textbooks.<br />

The teach<strong>in</strong>g task is unquestionably difficult. Tukey (1969, p. 90) expresses this<br />

difficulty eloquently:<br />

Divert <strong>the</strong>m from depend<strong>in</strong>g upon <strong>the</strong> ‘authority’ of standard textbook<br />

solutions, but without be<strong>in</strong>g able to substitute a second religion for <strong>the</strong> first.<br />

Stimulate <strong>in</strong>telligent problem formulation, without be<strong>in</strong>g able to say quite<br />

how this is done. Demand high standards of statistical reason<strong>in</strong>g, but without<br />

specify<strong>in</strong>g a simple model of statistics which might serve as a criterion for<br />

quality of reason<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

# Blackwell Publishers Ltd. 2002

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