Php 70.00 Vol. 47 No. 07 • July 2013 - IMPACT Magazine Online!

ARTICLES
Economic Error
By Dr. Bernardo M.
Villegas
Total Fertility Rate
(TFR) in the Philippines
was 6 babies
per fertile woman in 1975.
Without any aggressive program
for birth control over
the last 30 years, that rate
has fallen to 3.1 babies today
through such natural trends
as later marriages, education
of women, urbanization and
industrialization. In another
thirty years, that rate will fall
below replacement of 2.1
babies per fertile woman.
The birth controllers say that
there is nothing to worry
about because even at below
replacement, population will
continue to grow because of
a “growth momentum” that
can last for decades. What
these RH Bill proponents
do not tell us is that any
growth in population that
occurs after the TFR drops
below fertility rate will be
in the number of those over
65, i.e. people will be living
longer and longer. Labor
force, however, will start to
shrink with the consequent financial
burden on a economy
that has to support more and
more retired people with less
and less productive workers.
The cases of Thailand
and China are very instructive.
Both still have growing
populations but are already
suffering from serious labor
shortages because of
aging. Both are far from being
developed countries but
are already undergoing the
demographic pains of such
highly developed countries
as Japan and Singapore. A
recent report from Digital
4 IMPACT • July 2013