Current Conditions in Global Credit Markets - NYU Stern School of ...

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Forecasting Defaults and the Default Rate 48
Forecasting Defaults and the Default Rate MODEL DRIVERS • Mortality Rate Estimates: 1971 - 2005 = f {bond rating, age, redemptions, defaults} • Historical New Issuance over last 10 years by credit quality • Bond-ratings • Z-score Bond-equivalent ratings New Defaults and Default Rate in 2006 • Estimate high yield market growth in 2006 New Defaults and Default Rate in 2006 49
Page 1 and 2: Current Conditions in Global Credit
Page 3 and 4: Changes in the Credit Environment:
Page 5 and 6: Factors Affecting the Transformatio
Page 7 and 8: Changes in the Credit Environment:
Page 9 and 10: Historical Default Rates Straight B
Page 11 and 12: New Issues Rated B- or Below as Per
Page 13 and 14: Historical Default Rates and Recess
Page 15 and 16: Leveraged Loan Market U.S. Distress
Page 17 and 18: Recent Large Bankruptcies U.S. Dist
Page 19 and 20: Private Equity Fundraising and Leve
Page 21 and 22: Leverage Continues to Increase Curr
Page 23 and 24: Default Rates and Losses a 1978 - 2
Page 25 and 26: Source: Authors' Compilations from
Page 27 and 28: Asset Class Returns (%) 2003 - 2006
Page 29 and 30: Distressed And Defaulted Debt as a
Page 31 and 32: SIZE OF THE US DEFAULTED AND DISTRE
Page 33 and 34: SIZE OF THE ALTMAN-NYU SALOMON CENT
Page 35 and 36: ALTMAN-NYU SALOMON CENTER DEFAULTED
Page 37 and 38: SIZE OF THE ALTMAN-NYU SALOMON CENT
Page 39 and 40: CORRELATION OF ALTMAN NYU-SALOMON C
Page 41 and 42: CORRELATION OF ALTMAN NYU-SALOMON C
Page 43 and 44: U.S. Distressed Debt Managers 2007
Page 45 and 46: U.S. Distressed Funds with European
Page 47: Investment Styles and Target Return
Page 51 and 52: Mortality Rate Concept (Illustrativ
Page 53 and 54: Mortality Losses by Original Rating
Page 55 and 56: US Bond Rating Equivalent Based on

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