December 2012 Rankings (PDF) - DobberHockey - The Dobber ...

GMG’sMARKETBUZZ
December2012
Volume3/Edition4

Table of Contents – December Edition
GMG & Eric Daoust’s Introduction ..................................................................................................... 2
Top 30 Roto Cap – Eric Daoust ............................................................................................................ 3
Proven Players vs Risks in Cap Leagues – Eric Daoust .......................................................................... 5
Depth Bargains in Roto Leagues – Eric Daoust .................................................................................... 8
Finding the Next Cap Bargain – Eric Daoust ...................................................................................... 13
Who are the Black Aces? .................................................................................................................. 16
GMG’s Introduction – December 2012 Edition
With no changes coming in from November’s Top 100 Roto, this edition is a refreshing switch up.
DobberHockey’s own cap guru, Eric Daoust, takes the helm and delivers his top 30 rotisserie skaters in
salary cap leagues. Think of it as an early holiday gift for you salary league folk.
Eric Daoust’s Roto Cap Rankings :
The goal of the roto cap rankings is to properly order the 30 best players in a salary cap league. You will
notice that the usual suspects are at the top of the rankings. This is because there is no substitute for
elite-level production from one roster spot. Besides, there are plenty of effective bargain players that
can be obtained to fill the depth positions and help fit your top producers within your team’s budget.
Due to the ongoing lockout and uncertainty about the NHL financial model moving forward, the rankings
do not account for long-term potential or long-term cap value. This is merely a snapshot of player value
now and in the near future.
In addition to the rankings, there are also three previously published articles from the weekly Capped
series, via DobberHockey.com, included in this PDF. The first article provides a more detailed view of
why star players are should still be owned despite their higher salaries and at what point a cheaper, less
proven alternative may be the better option. The charts in this article apply to points-only league but
the big picture carries over to roto leagues as well. The second article lists 10 players who are cheap and
can give you good production in roto leagues. The last article focuses on how to find the next cap
bargain players to help your team in the future.
Enjoy the read.
Eric Daoust
Writer - DobberSports.com :
Dobber Prospects & Dobber Hockey
Gates Imbeau
Assistant Manager - DobberSports.com
Writer - Fantrax.com
Email: gates@dobbersports.com
Twitter: @gm_gates

Eric Daoust’s Top 100 Roto Keepers
Roto Legend
(template as published in GMG’s Top 100)
Categories – G, A, +/-, PIM, PPP, SOG, Hits & Blkd shots
Roto Focus: (Top three strongest categories per player)
No symbol allocation = Average // Hash tag (#) = Monster
4 – Consistently puts up massive numbers in this stat.
3 – Consistently puts up great numbers in this stat.
2 – Consistently put up above average numbers in this stat.
*Cap Value: Based on this year’s and next year’s cap hit
M = Monster cap value (bargain star roto player)
A = Good cap value
B = Slightly expensive star
C = Expensive star
(R) = Youth/Rebuild – room for growth
Disclaimer / Additional Information
This is not a player to player draft guide, simply because
the flow of draft, positions required and many other needs
come into play. The goal of this list is to push poolies to
realize the top 30 present day roto players while factoring
in each player’s cap hit.
Player cap hits for this year and next year are factored in. If
the player has no assigned cost for this and/or next
season, an estimated cap hit is used for the purposes of
ranking the player.
** If you are looking for a calculated and true numbers
game, Frozen Pool and Fantasy Hockey Geek (FHP) of the
Dobber Sports Network as well as Cap Geek are very
valuable resources. Positional requirements do not affect
rankings.
Rank
Skaters
Name / Team
POS
CapValue
Roto Focus
(Strongest Categories)
1 Steven Stamkos (TB) C B G : # PPP : 3 SOG : 3
Stamkos' value is similar to Malkin and Ovechkin but has a better cap hit and therefore claims top spot. He is also the
best goal scorer in hockey.
2 Evgeni Malkin (PIT) C C A : 3 G : 3 SOG : 3
Great consolation prize if you are unable to get Stamkos. His value is virtually the same and only costs $1.2 million more.
3 Alexander Ovechkin (WSH) LW C SOG : # G : 3 Hits : 3
Ovechkin is the most expensive of the top three and carries the largest cap hit in the league. He still offers outstanding
production in peripherals and could be a monster if he returns to his glory days.
4 Sidney Crosby (PIT) C C G : 3 A : 3 PPP : 3
Crosby could be the top player in the rankings if not for the amout of games he has missed due to concussion problems.
Until he can prove durable over a larger sample of games his value will take a hit.
5 Corey Perry (ANH) RW A G : 3 PIM : 3 SOG : 2.5
The wildcard in Perry's case is that he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. He will receive a hefty raise but
maintains strong value as a prototypical power forward.
6 Dion Phaneuf (TOR) D B Hits : 3 PIM : 2.5 BS : 2
Phaneuf is as good as it gets as a multi-category stud on the blueline. He is also cheaper than similar top roto
defensemen such as Weber and Chara.
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7 James Neal (PIT) LW A G : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 PPP : 2.5
The top winger in Pittsburgh is in good hands with two elite pivots on the roster. With a cap hit of just $5 million for the
next several years he is a more affordable version of Perry.
8 Scott Hartnell (PHI) LW M PIM : 3 Hits : 2.5 G : 2
Continuing with the theme of power forwards, Hartnell is not the same point-producer that Perry and Neal are but
offers more in hits and PIM. His cap value is among the best and is also signed for many years.
9 Zdeno Chara (BOS) D B +/- : # Hits : 2 A : 2
Chara is a top producer and has no weaknesses. His cap hit of just under $7 million knocks him down a couple spots.
10 David Backes (STL) RW M Hits : 3 PIM : 2.5 +/- : 2.5
Backes is outstanding in peripheral categories but his offensive game does not hold up with the forwards ahead of him.
His $4.5M cap hit until 2016 is excellent value.
11 Dustin Brown (LA) RW M Hits : # +/- : 2.5 SOG : 2
Brown is well balanced and is an excellent cap bargain. Aside from hits he does not stand out in any particular category
and his lack of elite offensive game keeps him out of the top-10.
12 Kristopher Letang (PIT) D M A : 2.5 +/- : 2.5 PPP : 2.5
Letang's offensive prowess goes largely unnoticed because he only played 51 games in 2011-12. He is a threat to lead
the league in defensive scoring and is good in peripheral categories. One of the best cap bargains available.
13 PK Subban (MTL) D M PIM : 3 SOG : 2 BS : 2
Subban's situation is a bit murky because he remains unsigned. Expect him to sign a multi-year deal for around $4
million per season. His game is perfectly suited for roto leagues and will cost nearly half as much as some of the other
top blueliners.
14 Shea Weber (NSH) D C Hits : 2.5 SOG : 2.5 G : 2
Weber's new 14-year contract assures him of a bloated cap hit for the rest of his career. He remains a top statistical
producer and is very much worth the money.
15 Dustin Byfuglien (WPG) D A SOG : 3 PIM : 2 G : 2
Byfuglien is another elite point producer who contributes in several areas. His cap hit of $5.2 million keeps him beneath
Subban and Letang in the rankings.
16 Claude Giroux (PHI) C M A : 3 PPP : 3 G : 2
It may be a surprise to some to see Giroux this low in the rankings but when evaluating the whole package he falls short
of the elite forwards in some categories. If you put extra bias towards offensive categories then he is a real gem who is
very affordable.
17 Ryan Callahan (NYR) RW M Hits : # BS : 3 G : 2
Callahan is similar to Brown but is slightly-inferior overall and more expensive. He is always near the top in hits and
blocked shots.
18 Gabriel Landeskog (COL) LW M Hits : 3 SOG : 2.5 G : 2
The reigning Calder winner is similar in contributions to Brown and Callahan and is already at their level offensively.
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19 Ryan Getzlaf (ANH) C A A : 3 Hits: 2.5 PIM: 2
Getzlaf is set to become a UFA this summer and should be able to cash in. Despite coming off a poor season, his roto
stats should be near the top of the league but the salary increase makes him less appealing than the forwards
immediately above him.
20 Jack Johnson (CLB) D M SOG: 2.5 BS: 2 Hits: 2
Johnson is similar to Subban in a lot of areas except that he does not do well in the PIM category. Being in Columbus can
do some harm to his plus-minus as well.
21 Steve Ott (BUF) C M PIM : # Hits : # A : 1.5
Despite being the weakest offensive player on this list, Ott remains an excellent roto player because of his monster PIM
and hits totals along with a cap hit under $3 million.
22 Mark Giordano (CGY) D M BS: 3 Hits: 2.5 PIM: 2
Giordano may be a surprise entry in this list, but he combines above-average scoring along with a great combination of
hits, blocked shots and PIM. His cap hit of just $4 million is an excellent bargain.
23 Milan Lucic (BOS) LW A PIM : 3 Hits : 2.5 +/- : 2.5
Lucic is an outstanding power forward but has not been a factor on the power play and is not a high-volume shooter. His
new contract of $6 million per year kicks in this summer which further hurts his value.
24 Alex Pietrangelo (STL) D A A : 2.5 PPP : 2 BS : 2
Pietrangelo is a top defender but is due for a huge raise this summer. His combination of top-level scoring and wellbalanced
peripherals will make him valuable for years to come.
25 Erik Karlsson (OTT) D B A : 3 PPP : 3 G : 2
Karlsson is the best point producing blueliner in the world but his PIM, hits and blocked shots are not up to par. He is
also starting a new contract that pays him $6.5 million per year.
26 Alexander Edler (VAN) D M SOG: 3 BS: 2.5 A: 2
Edler has an excellent cap hit for this year at $3.25 million. However he is a UFA this summer and could be paid in excess
of $5 million. He is an excellent all-around roto performer and is well worth both dollar figures.
27 Dan Boyle (SJ) D B SOG: 3 A: 2.5 PPP: 2.5
Boyle remains an excellent offensive defenseman but lags behind the other blueliners on this list in overall production
and also owns a bloated cap hit of $6.7 million.
28 Jamie Benn (DAL) C M A : 2.5 G : 2 SOG : 2
Like Subban, Benn remains unsigned as an RFA so there is some uncertainty in this projection. There will be a financial
pinch under the new CBA which could see Benn sign for less than $5 million per year.
29 Nicklas Backstrom (WSH) C B A : 3 PPP : 3 +/- : 2.5
Backstrom, a former 100-point scorer, offers very good peripheral stats in addition to top-level scoring. Concerns about
his health and a cap hit of $6.7 million are concerns.
30 Jarome Iginla (CGY) RW B SOG: 3 G: 2.5 PPP: 2
Iginla remains a top shooter and a lock for 30 goals or more each year. He is a UFA this summer and at his age he may
start taking discount contracts. The new CBA may force him to do so.
A GMG MARKET BUZZ PRODUCTION – 2012
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Proven Players vs Risks in Cap Leagues (Published Nov 1, 2012)
Generally speaking, you should always target proven commodities instead of putting your eggs in the
basket of prospects who may or may not achieve stardom. Simply put, a large portion of the skill set
required to produce at the highest level in the NHL cannot be taught. Therefore, a player who has
shown an ability to put up points over multiple years is more likely to continue being productive.
When finances are involved, it is simply not as simple as stacking your team with the most talented
players available. The star players are usually paid top dollar so there has to be some give and take as
you fit the pieces together on your team. At what point is it a good idea to side with the riskier option?
The Proven Commodity
Obviously, guys like Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkos are proven commodities who are heavy-hitters
on the stat sheet in any format. Their salaries are going to be more elevated as a result of their elite
level of production but are worth the money regardless due to their contributions from a single roster
spot on your team.
One challenge in running a cap league team is when your players have contract renewals. With the
NHL’s salary cap constantly inflating, most players will receive a raise when their contract is due for
renewal. With contracts being publicized, it is possible to predict in advance what your player’s new
contract will look like and give you an indication of how much cap space should be cleared before it is
too late.
There are special situations where your player could be in for a pay raise to a level beyond his value.
When players hit the open market in unrestricted free agency, supply and demand will play a large role
in determining each player’s new cost. When there is high demand along with few available talents, the
final result is teams bidding more than they should to solve their problem. In recent years, there have
been plenty of examples: Scott Gomez ($7,357,143), Chris Drury ($7,050,000), Daniel Briere
($6,500,000), Brian Campbell ($7,142,875) and Wade Redden ($6,500,000) among others.
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Like everything else related to managing your fantasy team, it is a good idea to put some time into
understanding the upcoming crops of NHL unrestricted free agents and forecasting some potential
payroll problems that may arise down the road. It is much easier to make a trade to get out of cap
trouble before your hand is forced. Let someone else deal with the headache.
The Risk
The primary benefit of taking chances with some unproven or uncertain players is salary cap relief.
Consider the example of Patrick Kane (6,300,000) versus Blake Wheeler (2,550,000). Kane is a very
proven commodity as he has always produced between 66 and 88 points while missing just 11 games
during his five-year career. Wheeler posted a career-high of 64 points last year, and has an upside for
much more. His prior best season was a mediocre 45 points. Because of the lack of track record,
Wheeler does present some uncertainty moving forward. He could take the next step and become a
constant 70-80 point player or he could hover around (or below) the 60-point mark. Despite the risk, it is
possible that the difference in points between the two moving forward is insignificant compared to the
payroll reduction. It really depends on the financial situation of your team.
So at what point should you consider going cheap to make it all work? Let’s take a look at the cap hit
distribution according to Dobber’s point projections for 2012-13.
Cap hit distribution (Forwards)
Cap Hit (millions)
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Projected Points
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Cap Hit Distribution (Defensemen)
Cap hit (millions)
$10.00
$9.00
$8.00
$7.00
$6.00
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Projected Points
Obviously you want to own the guys at the top of the food chain. But in the 50-70 point range on the
forwards chart you begin to see a lot of variation in the cap hits of players. Similar bargain players start
to show on the defenseman chart in the 35-45 point range. Depending on your cap commitments to
higher-caliber players, you can consider rolling the dice in this point range. If you are in a deep league,
then cap bargains will be readily available to fill your roster and the risk of mixing them in will be even
less significant. Just make sure you keep an eye on your waiver wire in case a move has to be made to
get help during the year.
Even though it is highly beneficial to use every cap dollar to make your team better, there are benefits
to leaving yourself with a bit of space under the ceiling. Clearly you will need enough flexibility to
accommodate re-signings throughout your roster. In the NHL, player salaries increase according to how
many cap dollars are available. But your fantasy team consists of guys from multiple NHL teams so it is
possible that your team payroll increases at a higher rate than you can handle. This is more of a longterm
problem to address though.
More importantly, you want to be in the mix when one of your rival GMs puts a star player on the trade
block. The teams with a payroll close to the limit are often unable to offer anything when someone like
Alexander Ovechkin and his $9,538,462 cap hit are up for trade. On the flip side, if you have enough
financial freedom and the trade pieces to make a deal happen, you may be one of the few teams in the
bidding. If the GM in question has his mind made up about moving the player, you may be able to
acquire an upgrade for less than market value.
Additionally, having cap space allows you to more easily integrate the contracts of elite prospects that
arrive onto your roster. Last week we looked at some typical examples of high draft choices and top
College free agents – those costs are not always easy to promote to your main roster.
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Closing Thoughts
Evidently, it is impossible to simply stack your team with top talent in a cap league. Part of the skill set
required to win this kind of league is an ability to manage your money allocation. You will have to find
some cheaper, sometimes unproven, talent to fill the gaps.
There are plenty of examples in the real NHL – let’s use the Chicago Blackhawks. Following their Stanley
Cup victory in 2010, the team faced an unprecedented amount of cap trouble. After dealing away a ton
of good talent, they were forced to call upon some cheap labor, some of them being unknown depth
players from within the system while others were veterans on the decline hoping to recreate some
magic. Bryan Bickell, who had 37 points and a $541,667 cap hit in 2010-11, is an example of an unproven
player who was brought in and provided good scoring support at a near-minimum salary. Players like
Bickell made it possible for the Hawks to retain their best players. In the end, the league’s most
competitive teams will have a healthy balance of proven and hit-or-miss talent with potential.
Depth Bargains in Roto Leagues (Published Sept 13, 2012)
This week we are going to look at some keeper league depth bargains in multi-category settings. The
idea is to look beyond cheap players who are heading into a contract year because they are likely about
to get a bigger contract next summer, thus making them less appealing on the cap. Instead, the focus
will be put on players with multiple years left on their current deals that are cheap, provide good
statistics and are not young phenoms who are next to impossible to acquire.
When your keeper league team is hovering around the cap ceiling, your team likely includes a few
expensive star players who eat up most of your available space. You will be forced to look for cheap
alternatives to occupy your depth positions. Winning the championship in a capped league is all about
getting the most out of your dollars, so you will need to get good value out of your cheap depth guys to
push your team over the top. Unfortunately, the pickings are slim.
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Matt Read (RW – Philadelphia)
900,000 / 2 years
Strengths: G, A, +/-, Hits, BkS, PPP, SOG
One of the best cap bargains in the entire league, Matt Read came out of nowhere to have a very
successful rookie campaign with 47 points in 79 games. Already 26, Read is not your typical rookie. His
two-way game is very polished which makes him even more valuable to the Flyers.
Read is a bit of a wildcard in most keeper leagues. He did not get the fanfare of the younger rookies so
he is flying a bit under-the-radar. Plus, it is possible that the person owning him in your league does not
think a rookie in his mid-20s has much upside beyond where he is right now.
If you can somehow acquire him for a good price, you have to jump at the opportunity. The cap savings
over the next two years for a guy that should get 45-55 points will help your team tremendously while
allowing for additional spending elsewhere on the roster.
Andrew Shaw (RW – Chicago)
565,000 / 2 years
Strengths: G, A, PIM, Hits, BkS, SOG
He is not the most talented player in the world, but Andrew Shaw is a good agitator who fit in nicely in
Chicago’s bottom-six last season. Consider his five most frequent line combinations at even strength:
40.83% EV 29 BICKELL,BRYAN - 36 BOLLAND,DAVE - 65 SHAW,ANDREW
9.27% EV 81 HOSSA,MARIAN - 16 KRUGER,MARCUS - 65 SHAW,ANDREW
5.51% EV 36 BOLLAND,DAVE - 16 KRUGER,MARCUS - 65 SHAW,ANDREW
3.71% EV 29 BICKELL,BRYAN - 17 MORRISON,BRENDAN - 65 SHAW,ANDREW
2.59% EV 15 BRUNETTE,ANDREW - 67 FROLIK,MICHAEL - 65 SHAW,ANDREW
Shaw was certainly not given great linemates to work with, but still provided 23 points in 37 games. In a
goal-starved NHL, Shaw’s instant offense in limited minutes (15:12) makes him a valued commodity.
For fantasy purposes, what we know is that he is in Chicago to stay. He is a good energy line player and
does get some secondary power play time. The Hawks have injury-prone guys like Marian Hossa, and to
a lesser extent Patrick Sharp, at the top of the depth chart so there could be opportunities in the top-six
at some point. It would not be unreasonable to expect 35-45 points. There is risk, however, as his
numbers prior to entering the NHL are very mediocre.
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Marcus Foligno (LW – Buffalo)
900,000 / 2 years
Strengths: G, A, PIM, Hits, BkS, SOG
Marcus Foligno surprised many when he posted 13 points in 14 games down the stretch for Buffalo. He
will most likely not maintain that pace at any point in his career, but where fans think his production will
fall makes his value a bit of a mystery.
Like Shaw, Foligno’s junior numbers were not particularly amazing – until his final season in Sudbury
where he had 59 points in 46 games. He is progressing nicely and should be a good fit on Buffalo’s
second or third line.
If you can get your hands on him for a reasonable price, he will provide good value for the next two
seasons with a cap hit of under a million. He should be a good bet for 40 points. Expecting more would
be risky because the Sabres lack elite players up front to help boost his numbers.
Adam Larsson (D – New Jersey)
925,000 / 2 years
Strengths: A, PPP, Hits, BkS, SOG
The mention of Adam Larsson in this article certainly breaks the rules of not including top young players
that are difficult to acquire. However, there are a few reasons for his inclusion. He did not set the world
on fire in his rookie season and spent a large portion of the postseason in the press box. It is possible
that some owners may be getting a bit nervous about their top prospect’s outlook.
Even if Larsson’s production does not spike immediately, he will still provide good cap value at such a
low salary. Keep in mind that his 18 points in 65 games scale up to 23 points over 82 games. If he is
ready for prime time, nobody on the New Jersey blueline is going to hold him back. The ice time is his to
claim when he is ready.
If you already own Larsson, hold tight. He is one of the top young defensemen in the game and is one of
the rare top draft picks to sign an entry level contract that is so friendly on the cap.
Derek Dorsett (RW – Columbus)
1,633,333 / 3 years
Strengths: G, PIM, Hits, BkS, SOG
Derek Dorsett possesses the rare talent of being a true fighter that has enough talent to play key
minutes for his team. In fantasy, this makes him a huge asset because he is never in danger of being a
healthy scratch. Furthermore, the added ice time and consistent spot in the lineup help pad his stats
across the board.
He is an excellent addition to your fantasy roster, especially if your team is mostly composed of skilled
players. On most teams, Dorsett will dominate your PIM and hits columns while providing respectable
numbers in goals and shots. His strong defensive abilities allow him to get good shot blocking numbers
and can be a thread for an occasional shorthanded point. Just beware of the plus-minus category – he
plays for Columbus after all.
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For a guy that will be among the NHL leaders in both hits and PIM, his cap hit is excellent. While he does
not set the world on fire offensively, it is much more than what your typical goon will provide. Every
small boost counts.
Dan Carcillo (LW – Chicago)
825,000 / 2 years
Strengths: PTS, PIM, Hits
One of the most hated players in the world is actually a decent fantasy contributor in multi-category
leagues. Daniel Carcillo provides excellent contributions in the hits and PIM categories. He is not great in
either goals or assists, but collectively his point totals offer good support for your team. So far he
compares favorably to Dorsett, however that is where the comparisons end.
Carcillo has not had a power play point over the last two years and has never scored a shorthanded
point. Over the last three years, he has a combined 40 blocked shots. He has also regressed in shots on
goal, finishing under one per game on average over the last two seasons.
Even more concerning is Carcillo’s health and risk for suspensions. Over the last two campaigns, he has
missed a total of 79 games, which is not reassuring in leagues with a limited bench or limited roster
moves. Still, for his cap hit he provides great value in hits and PIM on a per-game basis.
Zenon Konopka (C – Minnesota)
925,000 / 2 years
Strengths: PIM, Hits, BkS
Out of all the forwards highlighted in this article, Zenon Konopka offers the least offensively. Over the
last three seasons, he has just 19 points, averaging one point every 11 games. While this flaw does hurt
his value tremendously, his contributions in other categories (including being a two-time PIM champion)
make him a nice depth addition in multi-category leagues
If he is a regular in the lineup, he will finish around 300 PIM and 100 hits. Depending on his ice time, he
could even get you 40-50 blocked shots. He won 620 faceoffs in 2010-11 for the Islanders but will likely
not see such opportunities with Mikko Koivu and Matt Cullen on the roster. Expect 300-400 faceoff wins
and a percentage between 57 and 62 (based on his last three seasons).
Deryk Engelland (D – Pittsburgh)
566,667 / 2 years
Strengths: A, PIM, Hits, BkS, SOG
Deryk Engelland is a rugged depth defenseman who is a surprisingly good contributor in fantasy hockey.
He has back-to-back seasons with a double-digit point total, finishing last year with 17 in 73 games. He
only had 56 PIM last season but has 196 in 145 career games. He added 77 blocked shots and 86 SOG
last season.
All in all, Engelland is a good PIM/Hits/BkS combo player that also gives a small boost in offensive
categories. With the Penguins dealing Zbynek Michalek this offseason, Engelland could receive
11

additional minutes which can only add to what he already offers. With a cap hit that is near the league
minimum, Engelland can give you a good bang for your buck.
Jay Harrison (D – Carolina)
1,500,000 / 3 years
Strengths: G, A, PIM, Hits, BkS, SOG
Jay Harrison is a late-bloomer that hit his stride last season and has established himself as a quality
defenseman in the NHL. On a Carolina blueline that consists primarily of skilled offensive defensemen,
Harrison and Tim Gleason offer the best options for defensive situations.
Harrison’s breakout season was made possible by the fact that he was able to average over 20 minutes
per game on the ice. This allowed him to score nine times (tied for 20 th among defensemen) and get 23
total points. Add in 60 PIM, 117 hits, 153 blocked shots, five power play points and 128 shots on goal
and you have a pretty remarkable multi-category season.
Given how far Harrison has come in just one season, it would be reasonable to assume a slight
regression offensively. With Joni Pitkanen returning to full health, Harrison’s average 1:20 on the power
play will virtually disappear. On the other hand, the team added Jordan Staal and Alexander Semin this
offseason so there may be more opportunities for points by simply having better passing options than
he had last year. Harrison may fall short of 20 points this season, but his contributions in the other
categories should remain steady which will help him remain fantasy relevant.
Marc-Andre Bourdon (D – Philadelphia)
612,500 / 2 years
Strengths: PIM, Hits, BkS, SOG
Unless you have been living under a rock, you know about the injury issues on the blueline in
Philadelphia. Chris Pronger may never play again, while Andrej Meszaros and Andreas Lilja have suffered
long-term injuries. Marc-Andre Bourdon is one of a few defensemen that stand to benefit from the
misfortune. If he can land a consistent spot in the lineup he can help your fantasy team while not eating
a lot of cap space.
Last season, Bourdon made his debut in the NHL and put up seven points in 45 games while adding 52
PIM, 73 hits, 77 blocked shots and 45 shots on net. Over 82 games, this scales up to 13 points, 107 PIM,
133 hits, 140 blocked shots and 82 shots on goal. This season, he could see an increase on his average
16:11 of ice time because of the aforementioned injuries and also because he is more experienced than
he was one year ago.
It is worth noting that while Bourdon has not shown much in terms of offensive production since turning
pro, he was very potent offensively in junior. Should he rediscover that offensive touch, he could even
work his way into a secondary power play role.
12

Finding the Next Cap Bargain (Published Oct 25, 2012)
Cap bargain players are easy to find. Some are young players on entry-level deals, and others are late
bloomers who are hitting their stride. In most leagues, you can find some cheap quality labor to fill your
last few roster spots on the waiver wire and give your team some space under your league’s cap ceiling.
Unfortunately, most of these players will be due for a contract renewal within a year or two with most
of them due for a raise.
Given that your cap bargains will not retain their affordable salary for long, you may be forced to make
moves down the road to keep your team within the league constraints. More importantly, you will have
to find new cap bargain players to replace those who are no longer helping you. This article will focus on
how to obtain the next cap bargains to help keep the core of your team intact.
Prospect Draft
Obviously, the prospect draft is an important tool when building your keeper league teams. In addition
to providing your team with new talent, these players begin their professional careers on entry-level
contracts, many of which are extremely affordable. The cap discount generally does not apply to the
high NHL draft picks though. Consider some recent rookie contract examples:
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $3,775,000
• Tyler Seguin - $3,550,000
• Mark Scheifele - $1,594,167
• Mikael Granlund - $2,100,000
• Ryan Murray - $3,525,000
This is why your later picks are even more important because you have an opportunity to find some
quality lesser-hyped prospects who are a step down from the elite but can contribute at a much lower
cost. Here are a few examples:
• Gustav Nyquist - $875,000
• Charlie Coyle - $975,000
• Brandon Saad - $894,167
• Brendan Smith - $875,000
• Marcus Foligno - $900,000
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In the end, if you have success at the draft table you can find your cap bargains without having to look
outside for a solution. Why help your rivals by giving them assets in a trade when you can have
everything you need within your own organization? Sure, you want to swing for the fences and get an
instant star out of every prospect you draft, but remember that prospects rarely develop overnight. On
the way to their prime they can still be excellent contributors to your fantasy team. If you put in the
effort in preparing for your next prospect draft, you will likely have some nice cheap prospects coming
up through your pipeline in the coming years.
Waiver Wire
Unlike prospect drafts, you are far less likely to find future stars on the waiver wire in most leagues.
However, you will usually be able to find NHL-ready talent that can contribute decent numbers at a
cheap salary.
If your league has farm teams, you have a great opportunity to use the waiver wire to test the waters on
new players who are making some noise without affecting your pro roster. If your league does not have
a farm, then you will have to be a bit more careful because the players you acquire are thrown right into
the mix and are expected to contribute immediately. However, without farm slots you are more likely to
find better talent on the wire.
While this method allows you to make your team better without trading with a rival GM, these same
opponents will be competing with you to acquire free agents. Generally your free agent claims are
either first come first serve or follow a priority order, meaning that you will have to act fast and always
have an eye out for new talent if you want to land the best that the wire has to offer.
One thing to be aware of is the fact that top undrafted free agents that sign entry-level contracts with
NHL teams generally have an inflated cap hit. This is because multiple teams are bidding for the same
player which drives up the price. Here are some recent examples:
• Torey Krug - $1,704,167
• Tyler Bozak - $3,725,000
• J.T. Brown - $1,350,000
• Damien Brunner - $1,350,000
• Roman Cervenka - $3,775,000
There really is no excuse not to use the waiver wire to your advantage. These guys can be had for free
and they are right there under your nose in the free agents list of your league’s host website. It is up to
you to find them.
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Trade
This is the least desirable of the three options because trades must be agreed to by two parties. It is a
strong possibility that your opponent will seek something of value in return for his cap bargain player.
But there are still opportunities for favorable deals to be made. You simply cannot overestimate rival
GMs. Everyone has a different level of dedication to fantasy hockey and everyone has different views on
players. You can take advantage of this and acquire cheap players that will help your team.
There are many reasons for a rival GM to undervalue his cap bargain players. He simply may not be the
type that plans ahead and understands how much these players can be helpful in accommodating other
contract renewals on the roster. He could also be painting himself into a corner with young players
approaching their farm eligibility limit. He may not see these guys as household names and be more
flexible on the trade front. Whatever the reason, it is worth the trouble of kicking tires on the trade
market, especially if the player you are targeting maintains a low cost for multiple years.
Concluding remarks
An added benefit to putting effort into your prospect drafts and the waiver wire acquisitions is that the
new assets you possess can be used in trades. At this point you could even afford to overpay for a
substantial piece if you want. If you put in the time and effort on all fronts, everything comes together
and you will have all of the necessary tools to maintain a very competitive franchise over the long haul.
In the weekly piece "Capped", Eric Daoust breaks down the latest fantasy
information from the standpoint of salary-cap leagues - the bargains, the busts
and more. Eric is the first student to obtain a Master’s degree in Computational
Science at Laurentian University. He has also had a passion for hockey since
infancy and has been involved in fantasy hockey since 2001, primarily in sim
leagues. Since then, he has expanded to participating in various forms of roto
leagues. He also covers the Montreal Canadiens in the Dobberhockey forum in
addition to writing for Dobberprospects. You can find Eric on
Twitter @DH_EricDaoust.
15

Who are the Black Aces?
NHL Team Coverage -
Shakedown - Chicago Blackhawks
TK12555 - Toronto Maple Leafs
littleranger - New York Rangers
donions - Edmonton Oilers
Big Ev - Ottawa Senators
ericdaoust - Montreal Canadiens
dmvincent - Detroit Red Wings
Vincent Vega – New York Islanders
Flyer Fan - Philadelphia Flyers
AtlantaSportsFan - Winnipeg Jets
tgraveline - San Jose Sharks
Bomm Bastic - Buffalo Sabres
ridinryan44 - Vancouver Canucks
newper - New Jersey Devils
4T2 - Boston Bruins
mapletreemarty - Colorado Avalanche
jeffl97 - Anaheim Ducks
First Round Pick - Calgary Flames
Keytolife - Florida Panthers
mounD – Pittsburgh Penguins
uofmehockey –Nashville Predators
InnocentBystander - St. Louis Blues
Fast Tony DeNiro - Columbus Blue Jackets
Fighting Emu – Carolina Hurricanes
NoWayOut – Dallas Stars
sixhands – Washington Capitals
Ross the Boss Palmer – Minnesota Wild
T.B.D / Open - Tampa Bay Lightning
T.B.D / Open - Los Angeles Kings
T.B.D / Open - Phoenix Coyotes
Graduated Writers -
Tim Lucarelli – prev. Eastern Edge (2011-12)
Brendan Ross – co-manager DobberProspects
Steve Laidlaw – Cage Match
Eric Daoust – Capped / DobberProspects
Ryan Goddard – DobberProspects
Tim Graveline – DobberProspects
Miika Arponen – DobberProspects
Mac Vincent – Frozen Forensics / DobberBaseball
Michael Amato – Wild West
Brandon Landry – IR Report
Rick Roos – Holding Court
Peter Harling – prev. IR Report (2011-12)
Yas Guthe – prev. DobberProspects (2011-12)
Evan Hotham – DobberProspects (hiatus)
2012-13 DobberHockey Studs & Duds Crew - T.B.D
Studs & Duds Weekly Recap via Fantrax.com -
Gates Imbeau - @GM_Gates
2011-12 Pengwin7’s Depth Charts
PDF Editor : Gates Imbeau
Assistant Manager - DobberSports.com
Writer - Fantrax.com
Email: gates@dobbersports.com
Twitter: @gm_gates
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