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COMPILATION OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS STATISTICS IN INDIA 101
2005, respectively. The changes effected in the new series in terms of methodology, use of
alternative data sources and the consequential changes in the estimates were also deliberated
upon in detail in four meetings of the Advisory Committee on National Accounts Chaired by
Prof. S.D. Tendulkar and with eminent economists/statisticians and representatives of
Ministry of Agriculture, Finance, Planning Commission, Reserve Bank of India, State
Governments as members, held on May, 2004, December, 2004, August, 2005 and January,
2006.
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IX. Advance Estimates of National Income and Expenditure
Keeping in view the requirements of the government, particularly for the annual budget
preparation of the Government of India, CSO introduced the advance estimates of national
income in 1993, beginning with the estimates for the year 1992-93. Subsequently on May
2007, CSO also introduced the Advance estimates of GDP expenditures, thus reducing the
time-lag considerably. These estimates are now released on 7 th February or the next working
day, of each year, based on information available for about 8 months of the year on key
economic indicators. The Advance Estimates are revised on 31 st May of every year and are
termed as the Revised Estimates. The approach for compiling the advance estimates is broadly
based on the benchmark-indicator method. In this method, for each of the industry-groups,
namely, agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water
supply, trade, hotels and restaurants, transport, storage and communication, banking and
insurance, real estate, ownership of dwellings and business services, public administration, a
key indicator or a set of key indicators for which data in volume or quantity terms is available
during the year, are used to extrapolate the value of output/value added estimates of the
previous year. For example, in the case of agriculture sector, the set of key indicators are the
advance estimates of agriculture production (at individual crop level) and in the case of
manufacturing sector, the key indicators are the index of industrial production (at 2-digit
industry group level). The benchmark estimates are the previous year’s Annual Estimates. For
the GDP Expenditure aggregates, the indicators used are (i) same sources as used for
production GDP estimates for final consumption expenditure, (ii) IIP use based classification
for capital goods and imports of capital goods, and (iii) the balance of payment statistics and
foreign trade statistics, for net exports.
X. Quarterly Estimates of GDP and Expenditures
Following India’s subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), the CSO introduced the quarterly estimates of GDP
starting with the Quarter Jan-Mar 1999, both at constant (1993-94) and current prices. The
quarterly GDP estimates are based on a methodology, which takes into account the quarterly
performance of various industries of the Indian economy. With reference to agriculture, the
methodology is based on apportioning the season-wise crop production into various quarters
on the basis of “harvest stage approach”, utilising the Indian Crop Calendar, 1998. For other
industries, the estimates are based on the performance of leading indicators of each industry of
the economy, like the production of marine and inland fish, production of coal and crude
petroleum, Index of Industrial Production, production of cement and steel, performance of
railways, production of commercial vehicles, performance of civil aviation and cargo handled