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There are many reasons to shutter a plant. Companies sometimes close
operations as they streamline and modernize—allowing them to consolidate in
fewer locations, often increasing overall output in the deal. That's good for the
economy because it reflects growing productivity, the ability to produce more
with less, which is crucial for lifting living standards over time. But it still can
cost jobs in the short run and suggests manufacturers are far from vibrant.
Tracking the birth and death of factories "isn't a perfect indicator," says Mr.
Meckstroth. "But it's the one thing we have that's most current—and it doesn't
show any revival."
The nation's stubbornly wide trade deficit in manufactured goods is another
trouble sign. If American factories have regained their competitive edge, it would
make sense for them to be selling more abroad as well as at home—trimming the
imbalance. But that hasn't happened.
Another way to gauge competitiveness is to look at the share of manufactured
goods purchased in the U.S. that are imported. This includes everything from
finished products, like a blender, to car parts that are then used in a U.S. factory
to build a vehicle. A revived U.S. factory sector ought to be grabbing more of its
home market, but that also isn't happening, at least not yet.
Mr. Meckstroth estimates that in 2012, imports accounted for nearly 40% of the
manufacturing goods consumed in the U.S.—slightly more than the year before.
Indeed, after dropping a bit during the recession, the share of imports has been
rising for years. It was a mere 9% in 1967, when the government began tracking
this measure.
Many say falling energy costs, driven by the nation's natural-gas boom, will help
fuel a manufacturing revival. But the price of natural gas is only one factor
companies consider when they're deciding where to build.
Goldman Sachs GS +0.49% economist Jan Hatzius, in a recent note to investors,
said "rising productivity, subdued labor costs, low energy prices, and cost
increases abroad have made the United States a much more attractive place to
produce, especially on a relative basis." But he also sees no evidence that a
broader revival is under way.
"Measured productivity growth has been strong," he wrote, "but U.S. export
performance—arguably a more reliable indicator of competitiveness—remains
middling at best."
Some experts insist the renaissance is simply too new to show up in the
numbers. Others point to high-profile cases of companies returning jobs from
overseas as evidence that the tide has turned.
Examples of such "reshoring" range from tiny companies like Sleek Audio, which
moved production of its high-end earphones to Florida from China, to General
Electric Co., GE -0.65% which moved appliance production back to Kentucky
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