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Africa by numbers<br />

A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

Special report issued for:<br />

World Economic Forum on Africa 2014


Introduction<br />

1<br />

| Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>


Over the past 3 years, <strong>EY</strong>’s Africa<br />

attractiveness reports have highlighted the<br />

continent’s steady rise. Our research, which<br />

includes both investor surveys and analysis<br />

of greenfield and brownfield FDI trends,<br />

has helped to provide some quantitative<br />

substance to the growing perception that<br />

African markets offer an exciting growth<br />

and investment opportunity. What our<br />

research has also highlighted, however, is<br />

a lingering perception gap between those<br />

companies already doing business on<br />

the continent and those with no business<br />

presence.<br />

We have recently completed our 4th annual<br />

survey, and the perception gap continues<br />

to persist – those respondents with an<br />

established business presence in Africa<br />

are more positive than ever about the<br />

continent’s prospects, and, for the first<br />

time, have also ranked Africa as the most<br />

attractive regional investment destination<br />

in the world today. In stark contrast,<br />

respondents that have not yet invested<br />

remain negative, rank Africa as the least<br />

attractive regional investment destination<br />

in the world.<br />

The reality<br />

In many respects, <strong>Nigeria</strong> epitomises<br />

this almost bi-polar view of Africa: for<br />

many of us already doing business on the<br />

continent it is an exciting, dynamic, high<br />

octane growth market; for some others,<br />

often on the outside looking in, it seems<br />

chaotic, unstable, and uncertain. The<br />

reality is obviously less cut and dried than<br />

either of these extremes and in many<br />

respects depends on the perspective that<br />

one chooses to adopt. Nevertheless, we<br />

certainly believe that the facts support the<br />

more positive perspective on <strong>Nigeria</strong> and its<br />

prospects as an investment destination.<br />

The numbers tell us that Greenfield FDI<br />

projects into <strong>Nigeria</strong> have grown at a<br />

compound rate of close to 20% since 2007,<br />

positioning it among the 10 countries with<br />

the highest growth rates in Africa. <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

has also attracted the most FDI capital and<br />

the 2nd most FDI projects in Sub-Saharan<br />

Africa over that period, making it one of<br />

the star performers in a period in which FDI<br />

flows into the region have been fairly robust.<br />

What is equally positive is the increasingly<br />

diversified nature of the investment.<br />

Although more than 50% of the FDI capital<br />

invested into <strong>Nigeria</strong> since 2007 has been<br />

into the capital intensive resource sectors<br />

(primarily oil), nearly 50% of FDI projects<br />

are service-orientated. There has been<br />

particularly strong growth in investment<br />

into telecommunications, with the sector<br />

attracting 23.9% of FDI projects between<br />

2007 and 2013. Growth in investment into<br />

other service sectors like financial services,<br />

consumer products, tourism and business<br />

services, further highlights the growing<br />

opportunities emerging in these sectors.<br />

A key driver of growing levels of investment<br />

has been <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s robust and sustained<br />

economic growth. Over the past decade,<br />

the economy has consistently registered<br />

high single digit growth rates. The recent<br />

rebasing of <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s GDP now makes it the<br />

largest economy in Africa, and one of the<br />

30 largest economies in the world. <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s<br />

economic performance is still somewhat<br />

dependent on oil, and remains susceptible<br />

to changes in the oil price. However, as the<br />

FDI trends indicate, it is the non-oil sector<br />

that has been the main driver of growth in<br />

recent years, led by agriculture, services,<br />

and wholesale and retail trade.<br />

However, like most emerging markets,<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> will continue to face its fair share<br />

of challenges. Corruption, threats to<br />

physical security and poor infrastructure<br />

are among those often cited as constraints<br />

to investment and doing business. Arguably<br />

though, power shortages have been the<br />

biggest constraint to expanding investment<br />

and doing business. <strong>Nigeria</strong> has one of the<br />

lowest per capita national power supplies<br />

in the world, and most businesses rely<br />

on fuel-powered generators for reliable<br />

power. Besides the cost this adds to doing<br />

business (estimated to be as much as<br />

40% in some sectors), it also significantly<br />

hampers broader industrial development.<br />

Recent progress made in the privatisation<br />

of the power sector should significantly<br />

increase levels of investment into electricity<br />

generation and distribution, and could<br />

transform the business environment in<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>.<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> has also attracted the most<br />

FDI capital and the 2nd most FDI<br />

projects in Sub-Saharan Africa<br />

Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />

2


The privatisation of the power<br />

sector should significantly<br />

increase levels of investment<br />

into electricity generation<br />

and distribution, and could<br />

transform the business<br />

environment in <strong>Nigeria</strong>.<br />

A robust economy<br />

Despite these challenges, and while many<br />

other emerging markets are suffering<br />

from the consequences of global monetary<br />

tightening, the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n economy has<br />

remained remarkably robust. <strong>EY</strong> recently<br />

developed a heatmap to illustrate the<br />

economic vulnerability of a group of 25<br />

different emerging markets, drawing<br />

on previously published research into<br />

currency and banking crises, and ranking<br />

each country under seven indicators of<br />

risk (current account balance, government<br />

debt, inflation, currency volatility, etc.).<br />

According to these indicators, <strong>Nigeria</strong> has<br />

the 3rd highest overall ranking among all<br />

these emerging markets (and is also well<br />

ahead of the aggregate ranking for the US,<br />

Japan and Germany). This strong macroeconomic<br />

management coupled with<br />

progress in the political domain, provides<br />

us with confidence that overall growth<br />

rates will continue in the 5-6% zone for the<br />

foreseeable future.<br />

Given these continued growth rates and<br />

the recent GDP rebasing, an improving<br />

business environment, a portfolio of active<br />

infrastructure projects with a value close<br />

to $100b, and, of course, a population of<br />

about 170m people, <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s billing as<br />

a powerhouse in a dynamic, high growth<br />

region is certainly justified. As a result, we<br />

anticipate that <strong>Nigeria</strong> will continue to be<br />

a key hub for investment into Africa, and<br />

is likely to emerge as one of the most<br />

attractive developing market investment<br />

destinations in the world in coming years.<br />

3 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>


Economic vulnerability heatmap<br />

Overall score<br />

Current<br />

account<br />

External debt<br />

Government<br />

debt<br />

Inflation<br />

Growth in<br />

credit to GDP<br />

Import cover<br />

Currency<br />

change over<br />

year<br />

Turkey 20 26 19 13 21 26 16 21<br />

Argentina 19 14 16 14 24 24 17 24<br />

Ghana 19 25 13 20 26 10 22 16<br />

Vietnam 18 13 22 18 18 23 25 8<br />

India 17 22 6 19 25 17 13 20<br />

Egypt 16 19 5 23 23 5 23 18<br />

Czech Republic 16 20 21 15 6 18 21 10<br />

Brazil 15 17 4 22 17 25 3 19<br />

Poland 15 23 24 21 5 16 15 1<br />

Indonesia 15 12 9 7 20 21 11 23<br />

South Africa 14 18 11 12 15 1 20 22<br />

Advanced* 14 10 26 24 3 6 14 15<br />

Ukraine 13 24 25 10 1 3 24 4<br />

Colombia 13 21 8 9 9 20 9 14<br />

Mexico 13 15 7 11 14 19 18 6<br />

Chile 12 16 18 2 7 13 12 17<br />

Thailand 11 11 12 8 10 22 7 11<br />

Kazakhstan 11 5 23 4 16 4 19 9<br />

Malaysia 11 4 15 17 8 15 8 12<br />

Russia 10 6 14 3 19 12 4 13<br />

Korea 9 8 17 16 4 7 10 3<br />

UAE 8 3 10 1 2 8 26 4<br />

Qatar 8 1 20 1 12 11 5 4<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> 7 7 1 6 22 2 6 7<br />

China 6 9 2 5 11 14 2 2<br />

Saudi Arabia 5 2 3 1 13 9 1 5<br />

*Aggregate measure of Germany, Japan and the US.<br />

What is displayed in each column<br />

1. Overall scores are based on the addition of the seven rankings. We have<br />

then normalised the total rankings from 1 to 20. The highest figure<br />

indicates the highest risk.<br />

2. Current account balance shows the strength of the current account<br />

balance in 2013.<br />

3. External debt shows the level of external debt over GDP in 2012.<br />

4. Government debt shows the level of government debt over GDP in<br />

2012.<br />

5. Inflation shows average inflation in 2013.<br />

6. Growth in credit market shows the average growth of credit markets as<br />

a share of GDP fro 2010 to 2012.<br />

7. Import cover shows the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports in<br />

2013.<br />

8. Currency change over year shows the change in the currency against<br />

the US Dollar over the 12 months to mid-December 2013.<br />

Legend of colours used in first column (overall score).<br />

For each indicator, we have marked:<br />

• In red: the eight countries with the highest risk<br />

• In orange: the nine ountries with medium risk<br />

• In green: the nine countries with the lowest risk<br />

Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />

4


<strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

Abuja<br />

Ibadan<br />

Lagos<br />

Port Harcourt<br />

<strong>Country</strong> overview<br />

Western<br />

Sahara<br />

Cape<br />

Verde<br />

Senegal<br />

Gambia<br />

Mauritania<br />

Morocco<br />

Mali<br />

Algeria<br />

Burkina Faso<br />

Guinea<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

Bissau<br />

Benin<br />

Guinea<br />

Togo<br />

Equatorial Guinea<br />

Sierra Leone<br />

Liberia Sao Tome<br />

Côte d’Ivoire Gabon<br />

Congo<br />

Ghana<br />

Niger<br />

Tunisia<br />

Libya<br />

Egypt<br />

Chad Sudan Eritrea<br />

Central African<br />

Republic<br />

Cameroon<br />

Angola<br />

Democratic<br />

Republic of<br />

Congo<br />

Burundi<br />

Zambia<br />

Zimbabwe<br />

Namibia<br />

Botswana<br />

South Africa<br />

South<br />

Sudan<br />

Ethiopia<br />

Uganda<br />

Kenya<br />

Rwanda<br />

Tanzania<br />

Malawi<br />

Mozambique<br />

Swaziland<br />

Lesotho<br />

Djibouti<br />

Somalia<br />

Seychelles<br />

Comoros<br />

Madagascar<br />

Mauritius<br />

Reunion<br />

Opportunity indicators<br />

GDP (current)*<br />

Population growth (annual) 2.56%<br />

Population (m) 171.3<br />

Mobile penetration (% of population with mobile<br />

access)<br />

US$262.61bn<br />

58.58 %<br />

Risk indicators<br />

Ease of doing business overall rank out of 184<br />

countries (17th in Africa)<br />

Transparency International Corruption Perceptions<br />

Index (0=highly corrupt, 100=very clean; ranked 38th<br />

in Africa)<br />

Strength of investor protection index (0 =unfavorable,<br />

10=favorable; ranked 12th in Africa)<br />

Logistics Performance Index: overall rank out of 155<br />

countries (25th in Africa)<br />

Urban population (% of total) 49.62 % Democracy score (0=lowest, 10=highest) 4<br />

Real GDP growth (compound average growth rate):<br />

5-year forecast (2018)<br />

Real GDP growth (compound average growth rate):<br />

10-year historical (2003)<br />

GDP per capita (US$): 5-year forecast (2018)<br />

<strong>Country</strong> wealth (1=low income, 2=lower middle,<br />

3=upper middle, 4=high income (non-OECD), 5=high<br />

income (OECD))<br />

5.38 %<br />

6.62 %<br />

US$2,652<br />

2<br />

Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance (rank out of<br />

52 countries)<br />

Perceptions of governance – rule of law: percentile<br />

rank (0=lowest, 100=highest)<br />

Perceptions of governance – regulatory quality:<br />

percentile rank (0=lowest, 100=highest)<br />

Quality of overall infrastructure (1=extremely<br />

underdeveloped, 7=extensive and efficient by<br />

international standards)<br />

Literacy rate (total population %) 61.3 % Corporate maximum tax rate (%) 30%<br />

Source: The World Bank; OECD National Accounts; United Nations Population Division & World Urbanization Prospects; Oxford Economics; ITU International; Transparency<br />

International; International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Polity IV Project; Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance; Worldwide Governance Indicators; WEF Global<br />

Competitiveness <strong>Report</strong>; Worldwide Corporate Tax Guide<br />

• This is <strong>Nigeria</strong> GDP as per World Bank statistics. This is before recent rebasing of <strong>Nigeria</strong>n economy by the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n Bureau of statistics.<br />

131<br />

27<br />

5.7<br />

121<br />

43<br />

25.82<br />

20<br />

3.2<br />

Henry Egbiki<br />

<strong>EY</strong> West Africa Regional Leader<br />

Tel: +234 8023145694<br />

Email: henry.egbiki@ng.ey.com<br />

5 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>


FDI trends in <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s inflow of investment of FDI since 2003<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> received 6% of Africa’s total FDI for new projects and 11% of capital invested since 2007.<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> has seen strong compound growth in FDI projects of close to 20% since 2007. Although the average value of projects has declined,<br />

this reflects the growing diversification of investment (and the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n economy).<br />

23059<br />

60<br />

58<br />

% CAGR (2007–13)<br />

New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />

19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />

41<br />

43<br />

50<br />

45<br />

oject FDI<br />

7<br />

43<br />

Top sectors<br />

60<br />

Investments into <strong>Nigeria</strong> have 58been rapidly<br />

diversifying 50 in the period since 2007. Although<br />

the oil sector still attracts the most capital,<br />

there has been significant growth of FDI in<br />

34<br />

telecommunications, consumer products,<br />

construction and business services.<br />

4811<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s 3768investment into top sectors (2007–13) by<br />

most projects<br />

(Total = 306)<br />

6531<br />

19<br />

4656<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s investment into top sectors (2007–13) by<br />

most capital invested<br />

(Total = US$55,318m)<br />

14257<br />

009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />

13<br />

7293<br />

561<br />

ject FDI<br />

9249<br />

642<br />

Other sectors<br />

47%<br />

Coal, oil and<br />

natural gas 8%<br />

Retail and<br />

consumer<br />

products<br />

4%<br />

11<br />

9441<br />

Other sectors 7%<br />

Chemicals 3%<br />

2516<br />

8480<br />

Business Services<br />

8%<br />

35<br />

11664<br />

25<br />

10447<br />

4906<br />

19<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />

4613<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI 10447New project FDI<br />

43<br />

7613<br />

5775<br />

Real estate,<br />

hospitality and<br />

986<br />

835<br />

construction 8%<br />

6531<br />

19<br />

5983 6581<br />

% CAGR (2007–13)<br />

4656<br />

9 9 8<br />

1441 2761<br />

3111<br />

rmany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />

New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />

19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />

telecommunication<br />

35<br />

14257<br />

38<br />

11664<br />

5595<br />

25<br />

10447<br />

4906<br />

3963<br />

5447<br />

3303<br />

20<br />

12069<br />

% CAGR (2007–13)<br />

13543<br />

5145<br />

7293<br />

9249<br />

34<br />

9441<br />

New projects Capital invested<br />

4811<br />

Jobs created<br />

% CAGR (2007–13) 19.4%<br />

3768<br />

10.4% -9.6%<br />

3768<br />

43<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top 10 project investors since 2007<br />

38<br />

35<br />

Countries are ranked by most new projects (2007–13).<br />

2008<br />

4613<br />

5775<br />

27<br />

5595<br />

5447<br />

The US, South Africa and the UK are the top 3 investors into 3963 <strong>Nigeria</strong>. In terms of capital<br />

14 13<br />

3111<br />

11<br />

investment, there is still a strong bias towards the oil sector. However, there 2870is a marked shift,<br />

2708<br />

2516<br />

1978<br />

with investors from South Africa, the UK, and India, for example, leading the way in investing<br />

in sectors like telecommunications, consumer products and automotive.<br />

561 642<br />

7563<br />

43<br />

14257<br />

New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />

19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />

35<br />

11664<br />

25<br />

8480<br />

Source: All diagrams on this page have been sourced from fDi Markets and <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />

7613<br />

5983 6581<br />

35<br />

34<br />

2004 2005 Other<br />

14257<br />

investors 2006 (40%) 2007 2008<br />

13543<br />

2009 2010 Canada 2011(31%)<br />

2012 2013<br />

25<br />

12069<br />

11664<br />

10447<br />

19<br />

20<br />

9249 9441<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />

8480<br />

7293<br />

7613<br />

6531<br />

South Africa (6%)<br />

5983 6581<br />

4656<br />

4906<br />

5145<br />

4811<br />

3303<br />

3768<br />

4613<br />

5775 4613<br />

27<br />

5595<br />

5447<br />

5595<br />

5447<br />

3963<br />

3963<br />

14 13<br />

3111<br />

11<br />

14 13<br />

9 9<br />

2870<br />

8<br />

3111<br />

2708<br />

11<br />

2516<br />

9 9 27<br />

2870<br />

8<br />

2708<br />

1978<br />

2516<br />

1441 2761<br />

1978<br />

986<br />

835<br />

915<br />

561 642<br />

327<br />

1441<br />

293 2761<br />

14 13<br />

986<br />

835<br />

915<br />

11<br />

561 642<br />

United States South Africa UK India France 327 Germany 9 Japan 13 South Korea 9 Singapore Switzerland<br />

2870<br />

8 293<br />

11<br />

2708<br />

9<br />

9<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

Jobs created by FDI 2516New project FDI<br />

8<br />

6<br />

7<br />

6<br />

United States South Africa UK India France Germany 4 Japan South 4<br />

5 5<br />

3<br />

Korea 4 Singapore 4 4Switzerland<br />

4 4<br />

1978<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

Jobs created by FDI New project FDI 1441 2761<br />

986<br />

835<br />

915<br />

561 642<br />

327<br />

293<br />

7563<br />

43<br />

United States South Africa<br />

38<br />

UK India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />

35<br />

Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />

4613<br />

5775<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />

27<br />

5447<br />

12069<br />

23059<br />

41<br />

6531<br />

13543<br />

19<br />

20<br />

9249 9441<br />

8480<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />

7293<br />

7613 2009 2010 2011<br />

60<br />

6531<br />

58<br />

5983 6581<br />

23059<br />

4656<br />

4906<br />

5145<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m) 4811<br />

50Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top 5 investors New projects for Capital FDI invested 3303 capital Jobs created invested since 2007 (total 3768 = US$55,318m)<br />

% CAGR (2007–13) 19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />

43<br />

41<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top 5 Capital investors invested FDI (US$m) for FDI Jobs new created projects by FDI New<br />

since<br />

project FDI<br />

2007 (total = 306)<br />

43<br />

38<br />

14 11 13<br />

9<br />

2870<br />

Other investors (49%)<br />

5775<br />

6<br />

France 9441 (5%)<br />

38<br />

35<br />

UK (7%)<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />

Coal, oil and<br />

35<br />

natural gas 52%<br />

Technology,<br />

media and<br />

915<br />

telecommunication 25%<br />

293<br />

Technology,<br />

media and<br />

24%<br />

3111<br />

5595<br />

Retail and<br />

consumer<br />

products<br />

21%<br />

Financial Services<br />

9%<br />

3963<br />

3303<br />

2708<br />

20<br />

12069<br />

23059<br />

41<br />

13543<br />

5145<br />

43<br />

7293<br />

9249<br />

34<br />

11<br />

13<br />

50<br />

35<br />

8480<br />

4811<br />

7563<br />

60<br />

27<br />

7613<br />

7563<br />

9<br />

9 9 8<br />

8<br />

6<br />

58<br />

5983 6581<br />

4656<br />

43<br />

14257<br />

35<br />

11664<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

25<br />

10447<br />

34<br />

4906<br />

3303<br />

50<br />

12069<br />

20<br />

60<br />

41<br />

United States (14%)<br />

South Africa (12%)<br />

UK (11%)<br />

India (9%)<br />

United States South Africa UK India France Germany Japan South Kore<br />

1224<br />

953<br />

TMT<br />

243<br />

1491<br />

RCP<br />

58<br />

Business services<br />

154<br />

45<br />

Financial services<br />

160<br />

1862<br />

710<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

256<br />

1980<br />

RCP<br />

99<br />

Financial services<br />

194<br />

2239<br />

1887<br />

16<br />

67<br />

TMT<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

Business services<br />

410<br />

845<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

United States 7<br />

South Africa<br />

UK India<br />

7563<br />

1540<br />

488<br />

TMT<br />

23059<br />

34<br />

Business services<br />

101<br />

13543<br />

United States (8%)<br />

Mauritius (8%)<br />

1125<br />

619<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

5145<br />

327<br />

43<br />

7293<br />

New project FDI<br />

409<br />

760<br />

44<br />

76<br />

RCP<br />

Financial services<br />

1246<br />

1593<br />

TMT<br />

58<br />

47<br />

492<br />

Life sciences<br />

9249<br />

34<br />

11<br />

Healthcare<br />

9441<br />

109<br />

3<br />

24<br />

639<br />

6<br />

Business services<br />

3768<br />

835<br />

2<br />

189<br />

1776<br />

Automotive<br />

50<br />

9<br />

8480<br />

1441<br />

4<br />

2190<br />

690<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas


United States South Africa UK India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

New project FDI<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top investors by their top sector FDI investments since 2007<br />

Investor countries are ranked by most new projects 2007–13.<br />

These top investors contribute to 56% of all project activity and 44% of capital invested into <strong>Nigeria</strong> since 2007.<br />

11<br />

9<br />

6<br />

4<br />

3<br />

13<br />

9<br />

6<br />

4 4<br />

8<br />

5 5<br />

4 4<br />

7<br />

4 4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2 2<br />

1<br />

TMT<br />

RCP<br />

Business services<br />

Financial services<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

RCP<br />

Financial services<br />

TMT<br />

Business services<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

TMT<br />

Business services<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

RCP<br />

Financial services<br />

TMT<br />

Life sciences<br />

Healthcare<br />

Business services<br />

Automotive<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

TMT<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

Financial services<br />

RCP<br />

1224<br />

953<br />

243<br />

1491<br />

58<br />

154<br />

45<br />

160<br />

1862<br />

710<br />

256<br />

1980<br />

99<br />

194<br />

2239<br />

1887<br />

16<br />

67<br />

410<br />

845<br />

1540<br />

488<br />

34<br />

101<br />

1125<br />

619<br />

409<br />

760<br />

44<br />

76<br />

1246<br />

1593<br />

47<br />

492<br />

11<br />

109<br />

24<br />

639<br />

1776<br />

189<br />

2190<br />

690<br />

19<br />

88<br />

616<br />

1000<br />

22<br />

126<br />

4<br />

20<br />

United States South Africa<br />

UK India France<br />

14% projects/8% capital 12% projects/6% capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

New project FDI<br />

Source: fDi Markets; <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />

46 16,475<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s FDI outlook<br />

FDI outlook<br />

13,782<br />

12,600<br />

2000 2013 2018 Comments<br />

10,500<br />

Natural resources 24<br />

Labor<br />

5,288<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>'s oil and gas sector attracts a large proportion of total FDI, and its oil reserves will<br />

continue to attract substantial capital.<br />

7,015<br />

A rapidly growing working population, but relatively low levels of education remains a<br />

hindrance.<br />

Market size<br />

Infrastructure<br />

Roads and Power plants<br />

Bureaucracy<br />

bridges and transmission<br />

grids<br />

Political environment<br />

Overall outlook for FDI<br />

11<br />

Largest population and now the largest economy in the region, with rising GDP per capita<br />

2,848<br />

7<br />

levels, 2,470 makes this an increasingly attractive consumer market.<br />

5<br />

4<br />

Remains a challenge, but improvements 3have been made over previous decade, and there<br />

2 2<br />

is a substantial number of currently active infrastructure projects.<br />

103<br />

Airports Rail Industrial Significant levels still remain, Ports which hinders Oil and economic gas activity. Commercial However, Government Water is<br />

construction<br />

increasingly open for business. pipelines construction<br />

Capital value (US$m) Democratic institutions Project number and processes have improved substantially, but social tensions<br />

remain a concern.<br />

Natural resources and a growing consumer market are strong pull factors for FDI.<br />

Investment in infrastructure and improvements in the overall business environment will<br />

boost FDI levels going forward.<br />

Very unattractive Unattractive Average Attractive Very attractive for FDI<br />

Source: Oxford Economics; <strong>EY</strong> analysis<br />

7 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>


Jobs created<br />

-9.6%<br />

3303<br />

20<br />

12069<br />

41<br />

13543<br />

1224<br />

953<br />

TMT<br />

243<br />

1491<br />

5145<br />

RCP<br />

43<br />

7293<br />

58<br />

6<br />

Business services<br />

154<br />

45<br />

4<br />

160<br />

Financial services<br />

3<br />

1862<br />

710<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

256<br />

1980<br />

RCP<br />

99<br />

Financial services<br />

194<br />

6<br />

2239<br />

1887<br />

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />

TMT<br />

4<br />

16<br />

4 4<br />

Business services<br />

67<br />

410<br />

845<br />

4<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

1540<br />

488<br />

TMT<br />

34<br />

5 5<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s active* infrastructure projects up to July 2013<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> ranks 2nd in Africa by number of projects and 2nd by capital allocation.<br />

101<br />

Business services<br />

1125<br />

619<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />

4% CAGR (2007–13) 4 19.4% 4 10.4% 4 -9.6%<br />

3<br />

2<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s infrastructure project breakdown<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

New project FDI<br />

9249<br />

34<br />

9441<br />

3768<br />

50<br />

8480<br />

4811<br />

7613<br />

5983 6581<br />

409<br />

760<br />

RCP<br />

6531<br />

19<br />

44<br />

76<br />

4656<br />

Financial services<br />

14257<br />

1246<br />

1593<br />

TMT<br />

35<br />

11664<br />

47<br />

492<br />

Life sciences<br />

25<br />

10447<br />

11<br />

Healthcare<br />

109<br />

4906<br />

24<br />

639<br />

Business services<br />

189<br />

1776<br />

Automotive<br />

4<br />

2190<br />

690<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />

3303<br />

20<br />

12069<br />

41<br />

13543<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

19<br />

3<br />

TMT<br />

88<br />

2 2<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />

5145<br />

43<br />

7293<br />

616<br />

1000<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

9249<br />

34<br />

9441<br />

22<br />

126<br />

Financial services<br />

4<br />

1<br />

3768<br />

RCP<br />

20<br />

8480<br />

4811<br />

7613<br />

5983 6581<br />

United Infrastructure’s States % contribution South Africa by number of projects UK Infrastructure’s India % contribution by France capital value<br />

14% projects/8% capital 12% projects/6% capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />

Construction sectors 7%<br />

Social and welfare 4%<br />

Social and welfare 2%<br />

Power generation and<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

New project FDI transmission 22%<br />

Power generation and<br />

Logistics sectors 66%<br />

transmission 23%<br />

Construction sectors 25%<br />

Logistics sectors 51%<br />

46<br />

16,475<br />

7563<br />

13,782<br />

7563<br />

43<br />

38<br />

35<br />

12,600<br />

27<br />

4613<br />

5775<br />

5595<br />

3963<br />

5447<br />

27<br />

10,500<br />

2708<br />

14 13<br />

2870<br />

1978<br />

561<br />

327<br />

642<br />

11<br />

2516<br />

24<br />

9 9 8<br />

1441 2761<br />

986<br />

835<br />

915<br />

293<br />

5,288<br />

3111<br />

7,015<br />

2708<br />

14 13<br />

2870<br />

1978<br />

561<br />

327<br />

642<br />

11<br />

2516<br />

9 9 8<br />

1441 2761<br />

986<br />

915<br />

835<br />

293<br />

India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland 11<br />

United States South Africa UK India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

New project FDI<br />

2,848<br />

7<br />

5<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

2,470<br />

4<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

3<br />

New project FDI<br />

2 2<br />

103<br />

Roads and<br />

bridges<br />

Power plants<br />

and transmission<br />

grids<br />

Airports Rail Industrial Ports Oil and gas<br />

construction<br />

pipelines<br />

Capital value (US$m)<br />

Project number<br />

Commercial<br />

construction<br />

Water<br />

4 4<br />

*Active projects are categorized into three phases: 1. Conceptual to feasibility; 2. Financial closure to early implementation; 3. In progress and near completion.<br />

11<br />

9<br />

8<br />

7<br />

6<br />

5 5<br />

4 4<br />

4 4<br />

4<br />

Source: Africa Project Access,<br />

3<br />

2 Business 3<br />

2Monitor 2 International; <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />

1<br />

13<br />

9<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

4<br />

5 5<br />

3<br />

4<br />

7<br />

4 4<br />

4 4<br />

4<br />

3<br />

2<br />

3<br />

2 2<br />

1<br />

16<br />

Business services<br />

67<br />

410<br />

845<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

1540<br />

488<br />

TMT<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

Examples of some active infrastructure projects in <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

34<br />

Business services<br />

101<br />

1125<br />

619<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

409<br />

760<br />

44<br />

76<br />

RCP<br />

Financial services<br />

1246<br />

1593<br />

TMT<br />

47<br />

492<br />

Project name Capacity and time frame Company involvement Other details<br />

Lagos Rail Mass Transit (PPP)<br />

Project<br />

Sponsored by the Lagos<br />

New project FDI<br />

Metropolitan Area Transport<br />

Authority (LAMATA).<br />

ica<br />

UK India France<br />

capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />

2,848<br />

7<br />

Abuja-Kaduna Rail<br />

Modernisation (PPP) Project<br />

Upgrading to standard gauge.<br />

5,288<br />

2,470<br />

Geregu 5II Gas-Turbine Power<br />

4<br />

3<br />

Plant<br />

Located in Ajaokuta, Kogi State.<br />

ports Rail Industrial Ports Oil and gas<br />

construction<br />

pipelines<br />

Capital value (US$m)<br />

Life sciences<br />

11<br />

Healthcare<br />

109<br />

7,015<br />

Project number<br />

24<br />

639<br />

Business services<br />

189<br />

1776<br />

Automotive<br />

2190<br />

690<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

10,500<br />

19<br />

TMT<br />

88<br />

616<br />

1000<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

22<br />

Financial services<br />

126<br />

RCP<br />

20<br />

• Phase one: the 27.5km<br />

Blue Line from Marina to<br />

Okokomaiko; LAMATA's<br />

has envisioned a long-term<br />

plan of seven lines<br />

• Completion of phase one is<br />

pushed out to end-2015<br />

• 186km rail modernization<br />

network 12,600 will result in a<br />

track with 36 bridges and 9<br />

fully developed stations<br />

• In progress (brownfield);<br />

completion expected in<br />

2014<br />

• 434 MW<br />

2 2<br />

• The plant was 103 turned over<br />

on schedule in mid-2013<br />

Commercial<br />

construction<br />

Water<br />

1224<br />

953<br />

TMT<br />

243<br />

1491<br />

RCP<br />

58<br />

Business services<br />

The China Civil Engineering Construction South Africa Corp.<br />

(CCECC) is the main EPC contractor on phase<br />

one. The project is sponsored by the Lagos<br />

Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />

State Government (LSG) and will be developed<br />

by LAMATA on behalf of LSG.<br />

China Exim Bank is providing a US$500m<br />

13,782<br />

concessionary loan, the remaining US$374m<br />

comes from the Federal Government of<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong>. China Civil Engineering Construction<br />

24<br />

Corporation (CCECC) was awarded the main<br />

EPC contract.<br />

154<br />

Jobs created by FDI<br />

Siemens won the turnkey EPC contract to build<br />

the power station for the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n utility Niger<br />

Delta Power Holding Roads Company and Power (NDPHC).<br />

plants<br />

45<br />

Financial services<br />

160<br />

1862<br />

710<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

256<br />

1980<br />

RCP<br />

99<br />

Financial services<br />

194<br />

2239<br />

1887<br />

16<br />

67<br />

TMT<br />

Business services<br />

410<br />

845<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

1540<br />

488<br />

TMT<br />

34<br />

Business services<br />

101<br />

1125<br />

619<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

409<br />

760<br />

44<br />

76<br />

RCP<br />

Financial services<br />

1246<br />

1593<br />

TMT<br />

47<br />

492<br />

Life sciences<br />

11<br />

Healthcare<br />

109<br />

This modern rail-based public transport system is the<br />

first of its kind in SSA outside of RSA. The railway<br />

equipment, including signaling, rolling stock and fare<br />

New project FDI<br />

collection equipment, will be provided by the private<br />

sector. The project is also responsible for generating its<br />

own electricity. Detailed design and surveying for the<br />

entire project has been completed.<br />

United States UK India France<br />

14% projects/8% capital 12% projects/6% capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />

46<br />

bridges<br />

16,475<br />

and transmission<br />

grids<br />

11<br />

2,848<br />

Track laying for the single standard gauge line<br />

was officially launched in July 2013. The railway<br />

12,600<br />

modernization initiative in <strong>Nigeria</strong> aims at replacing<br />

10,500<br />

the existing narrow gauge system with the wider<br />

standard gauge system, while allowing high-speed train<br />

7,015<br />

operations on the railway network.<br />

5,288<br />

7<br />

2,470<br />

The project 5 was commissioned 4 under the National<br />

3<br />

2 2<br />

Integrated Power Project (NIPP) plan. Geregu II is now<br />

the third gas-turbine Industrial power plant to be Commercial constructed Water<br />

construction<br />

pipelines construction<br />

by Siemens in <strong>Nigeria</strong> as a turnkey project. By 2020,<br />

Project number<br />

<strong>Nigeria</strong> plans to increase the country's generation<br />

capacity by five to eightfold from its current level of<br />

approximately 5 gigawatts (GW).<br />

Airports Rail Ports Oil and gas<br />

Capital value (US$m)<br />

24<br />

639<br />

Business services<br />

189<br />

1776<br />

Automotive<br />

2190<br />

690<br />

Coal, oil and natural gas<br />

19<br />

TMT<br />

88<br />

616<br />

1000<br />

Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />

22<br />

Financial services<br />

126<br />

RCP<br />

20<br />

103<br />

Source: Africa Project Access, Business Monitor International; <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />

Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />

8


<strong>EY</strong> in Africa<br />

One<br />

African executive team<br />

One<br />

African integrated operating model<br />

Cape<br />

Verde<br />

Senegal<br />

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Mali<br />

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<strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

Benin<br />

Guinea<br />

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Sudan<br />

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33 African countries<br />

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client<br />

service<br />

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Building a<br />

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working<br />

world<br />

9 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>


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Today, we are able to navigate through the complexity that our<br />

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Its sole purpose is to help client make their investment and<br />

expansion decisions in Africa. Our Africa integration benefits our<br />

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enabling us to coordinate our resources to provide clients with a<br />

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Africa by numbers 2013/14<br />

Whether entering into Africa or expanding across the continent, we believe it is critical to develop a structured analytical<br />

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Realizing potential. <strong>EY</strong> 2013/14 Sub-Saharan Africa talent trends and practices survey<br />

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<strong>EY</strong> Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast — February 2014<br />

Looking into the future of the world’s rapid-growth markets (RGMs) could reveal some exciting opportunities. We expect<br />

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negatively to the global monetary tightening that is expected this year, medium term growth prospects would be limited.<br />

Read <strong>EY</strong>’s latest Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast to find out more.<br />

Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />

10


World Economic Forum on Africa<br />

Abuja, <strong>Nigeria</strong>, 7 - 9 May 2014<br />

<strong>EY</strong> contacts at WEF Africa 2014<br />

Henry Egbiki<br />

Regional Managing Partner<br />

<strong>EY</strong> West Africa<br />

Tel: +234 8023145694<br />

Email: henry.egbiki@ng.ey.com<br />

Michael Lalor<br />

Lead Partner<br />

<strong>EY</strong> Africa Business Center TM<br />

Tel: +27 83 611 5700<br />

Email: michael.lalor@za.ey.com<br />

Adekunle Salau<br />

Leader Advisory Services<br />

<strong>EY</strong> West Africa<br />

Tel: +234 8112092999<br />

Email: adekunle.salau@ng.ey.com<br />

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Assurance Lead<br />

<strong>EY</strong> <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />

Tel: +2348023145695<br />

Email: dayo.babatunde@ng.ey.com<br />

Claire Lawrie<br />

Partner<br />

<strong>EY</strong> Africa Advisory Oil & Gas Lead<br />

Tel: +234 (0) 703 909 7963<br />

Email: claire.lawrie@ng.ey.com<br />

Emmanuel Idoko<br />

Business Development<br />

<strong>EY</strong> West Africa<br />

Tel: +234 8037868022<br />

Email: Emmanuel.idoko@ng.ey.com<br />

<strong>EY</strong>’s attractiveness survey<br />

Africa 2014<br />

The fourth edition of the annual <strong>EY</strong>’s attractiveness survey – Africa 2014, will be<br />

launched on 15 May 2014.<br />

In our first edition of the Africa attractiveness survey 2011, we declared “It is<br />

time for Africa!” We also said that there was a window of opportunity to act before<br />

others woke up to the African opportunity. Today, that window is closing, and the<br />

cost of entering African markets is already beginning to rise. Companies with an<br />

already-established presence continue to expand and entrench their advantages.<br />

In our opinion, the risk of missing this window is likely to be far greater than any<br />

of the risks you will encounter in actually doing business in Africa.<br />

<strong>EY</strong>’s attractiveness survey<br />

Africa 2014 – Available 15 May.<br />

www.ey.com/za<br />

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