EY-Nigeria-Country-Report
EY-Nigeria-Country-Report
EY-Nigeria-Country-Report
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Africa by numbers<br />
A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />
Special report issued for:<br />
World Economic Forum on Africa 2014
Introduction<br />
1<br />
| Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>
Over the past 3 years, <strong>EY</strong>’s Africa<br />
attractiveness reports have highlighted the<br />
continent’s steady rise. Our research, which<br />
includes both investor surveys and analysis<br />
of greenfield and brownfield FDI trends,<br />
has helped to provide some quantitative<br />
substance to the growing perception that<br />
African markets offer an exciting growth<br />
and investment opportunity. What our<br />
research has also highlighted, however, is<br />
a lingering perception gap between those<br />
companies already doing business on<br />
the continent and those with no business<br />
presence.<br />
We have recently completed our 4th annual<br />
survey, and the perception gap continues<br />
to persist – those respondents with an<br />
established business presence in Africa<br />
are more positive than ever about the<br />
continent’s prospects, and, for the first<br />
time, have also ranked Africa as the most<br />
attractive regional investment destination<br />
in the world today. In stark contrast,<br />
respondents that have not yet invested<br />
remain negative, rank Africa as the least<br />
attractive regional investment destination<br />
in the world.<br />
The reality<br />
In many respects, <strong>Nigeria</strong> epitomises<br />
this almost bi-polar view of Africa: for<br />
many of us already doing business on the<br />
continent it is an exciting, dynamic, high<br />
octane growth market; for some others,<br />
often on the outside looking in, it seems<br />
chaotic, unstable, and uncertain. The<br />
reality is obviously less cut and dried than<br />
either of these extremes and in many<br />
respects depends on the perspective that<br />
one chooses to adopt. Nevertheless, we<br />
certainly believe that the facts support the<br />
more positive perspective on <strong>Nigeria</strong> and its<br />
prospects as an investment destination.<br />
The numbers tell us that Greenfield FDI<br />
projects into <strong>Nigeria</strong> have grown at a<br />
compound rate of close to 20% since 2007,<br />
positioning it among the 10 countries with<br />
the highest growth rates in Africa. <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />
has also attracted the most FDI capital and<br />
the 2nd most FDI projects in Sub-Saharan<br />
Africa over that period, making it one of<br />
the star performers in a period in which FDI<br />
flows into the region have been fairly robust.<br />
What is equally positive is the increasingly<br />
diversified nature of the investment.<br />
Although more than 50% of the FDI capital<br />
invested into <strong>Nigeria</strong> since 2007 has been<br />
into the capital intensive resource sectors<br />
(primarily oil), nearly 50% of FDI projects<br />
are service-orientated. There has been<br />
particularly strong growth in investment<br />
into telecommunications, with the sector<br />
attracting 23.9% of FDI projects between<br />
2007 and 2013. Growth in investment into<br />
other service sectors like financial services,<br />
consumer products, tourism and business<br />
services, further highlights the growing<br />
opportunities emerging in these sectors.<br />
A key driver of growing levels of investment<br />
has been <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s robust and sustained<br />
economic growth. Over the past decade,<br />
the economy has consistently registered<br />
high single digit growth rates. The recent<br />
rebasing of <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s GDP now makes it the<br />
largest economy in Africa, and one of the<br />
30 largest economies in the world. <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s<br />
economic performance is still somewhat<br />
dependent on oil, and remains susceptible<br />
to changes in the oil price. However, as the<br />
FDI trends indicate, it is the non-oil sector<br />
that has been the main driver of growth in<br />
recent years, led by agriculture, services,<br />
and wholesale and retail trade.<br />
However, like most emerging markets,<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> will continue to face its fair share<br />
of challenges. Corruption, threats to<br />
physical security and poor infrastructure<br />
are among those often cited as constraints<br />
to investment and doing business. Arguably<br />
though, power shortages have been the<br />
biggest constraint to expanding investment<br />
and doing business. <strong>Nigeria</strong> has one of the<br />
lowest per capita national power supplies<br />
in the world, and most businesses rely<br />
on fuel-powered generators for reliable<br />
power. Besides the cost this adds to doing<br />
business (estimated to be as much as<br />
40% in some sectors), it also significantly<br />
hampers broader industrial development.<br />
Recent progress made in the privatisation<br />
of the power sector should significantly<br />
increase levels of investment into electricity<br />
generation and distribution, and could<br />
transform the business environment in<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>.<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> has also attracted the most<br />
FDI capital and the 2nd most FDI<br />
projects in Sub-Saharan Africa<br />
Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />
2
The privatisation of the power<br />
sector should significantly<br />
increase levels of investment<br />
into electricity generation<br />
and distribution, and could<br />
transform the business<br />
environment in <strong>Nigeria</strong>.<br />
A robust economy<br />
Despite these challenges, and while many<br />
other emerging markets are suffering<br />
from the consequences of global monetary<br />
tightening, the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n economy has<br />
remained remarkably robust. <strong>EY</strong> recently<br />
developed a heatmap to illustrate the<br />
economic vulnerability of a group of 25<br />
different emerging markets, drawing<br />
on previously published research into<br />
currency and banking crises, and ranking<br />
each country under seven indicators of<br />
risk (current account balance, government<br />
debt, inflation, currency volatility, etc.).<br />
According to these indicators, <strong>Nigeria</strong> has<br />
the 3rd highest overall ranking among all<br />
these emerging markets (and is also well<br />
ahead of the aggregate ranking for the US,<br />
Japan and Germany). This strong macroeconomic<br />
management coupled with<br />
progress in the political domain, provides<br />
us with confidence that overall growth<br />
rates will continue in the 5-6% zone for the<br />
foreseeable future.<br />
Given these continued growth rates and<br />
the recent GDP rebasing, an improving<br />
business environment, a portfolio of active<br />
infrastructure projects with a value close<br />
to $100b, and, of course, a population of<br />
about 170m people, <strong>Nigeria</strong>’s billing as<br />
a powerhouse in a dynamic, high growth<br />
region is certainly justified. As a result, we<br />
anticipate that <strong>Nigeria</strong> will continue to be<br />
a key hub for investment into Africa, and<br />
is likely to emerge as one of the most<br />
attractive developing market investment<br />
destinations in the world in coming years.<br />
3 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>
Economic vulnerability heatmap<br />
Overall score<br />
Current<br />
account<br />
External debt<br />
Government<br />
debt<br />
Inflation<br />
Growth in<br />
credit to GDP<br />
Import cover<br />
Currency<br />
change over<br />
year<br />
Turkey 20 26 19 13 21 26 16 21<br />
Argentina 19 14 16 14 24 24 17 24<br />
Ghana 19 25 13 20 26 10 22 16<br />
Vietnam 18 13 22 18 18 23 25 8<br />
India 17 22 6 19 25 17 13 20<br />
Egypt 16 19 5 23 23 5 23 18<br />
Czech Republic 16 20 21 15 6 18 21 10<br />
Brazil 15 17 4 22 17 25 3 19<br />
Poland 15 23 24 21 5 16 15 1<br />
Indonesia 15 12 9 7 20 21 11 23<br />
South Africa 14 18 11 12 15 1 20 22<br />
Advanced* 14 10 26 24 3 6 14 15<br />
Ukraine 13 24 25 10 1 3 24 4<br />
Colombia 13 21 8 9 9 20 9 14<br />
Mexico 13 15 7 11 14 19 18 6<br />
Chile 12 16 18 2 7 13 12 17<br />
Thailand 11 11 12 8 10 22 7 11<br />
Kazakhstan 11 5 23 4 16 4 19 9<br />
Malaysia 11 4 15 17 8 15 8 12<br />
Russia 10 6 14 3 19 12 4 13<br />
Korea 9 8 17 16 4 7 10 3<br />
UAE 8 3 10 1 2 8 26 4<br />
Qatar 8 1 20 1 12 11 5 4<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> 7 7 1 6 22 2 6 7<br />
China 6 9 2 5 11 14 2 2<br />
Saudi Arabia 5 2 3 1 13 9 1 5<br />
*Aggregate measure of Germany, Japan and the US.<br />
What is displayed in each column<br />
1. Overall scores are based on the addition of the seven rankings. We have<br />
then normalised the total rankings from 1 to 20. The highest figure<br />
indicates the highest risk.<br />
2. Current account balance shows the strength of the current account<br />
balance in 2013.<br />
3. External debt shows the level of external debt over GDP in 2012.<br />
4. Government debt shows the level of government debt over GDP in<br />
2012.<br />
5. Inflation shows average inflation in 2013.<br />
6. Growth in credit market shows the average growth of credit markets as<br />
a share of GDP fro 2010 to 2012.<br />
7. Import cover shows the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to imports in<br />
2013.<br />
8. Currency change over year shows the change in the currency against<br />
the US Dollar over the 12 months to mid-December 2013.<br />
Legend of colours used in first column (overall score).<br />
For each indicator, we have marked:<br />
• In red: the eight countries with the highest risk<br />
• In orange: the nine ountries with medium risk<br />
• In green: the nine countries with the lowest risk<br />
Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />
4
<strong>Nigeria</strong><br />
Abuja<br />
Ibadan<br />
Lagos<br />
Port Harcourt<br />
<strong>Country</strong> overview<br />
Western<br />
Sahara<br />
Cape<br />
Verde<br />
Senegal<br />
Gambia<br />
Mauritania<br />
Morocco<br />
Mali<br />
Algeria<br />
Burkina Faso<br />
Guinea<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong><br />
Bissau<br />
Benin<br />
Guinea<br />
Togo<br />
Equatorial Guinea<br />
Sierra Leone<br />
Liberia Sao Tome<br />
Côte d’Ivoire Gabon<br />
Congo<br />
Ghana<br />
Niger<br />
Tunisia<br />
Libya<br />
Egypt<br />
Chad Sudan Eritrea<br />
Central African<br />
Republic<br />
Cameroon<br />
Angola<br />
Democratic<br />
Republic of<br />
Congo<br />
Burundi<br />
Zambia<br />
Zimbabwe<br />
Namibia<br />
Botswana<br />
South Africa<br />
South<br />
Sudan<br />
Ethiopia<br />
Uganda<br />
Kenya<br />
Rwanda<br />
Tanzania<br />
Malawi<br />
Mozambique<br />
Swaziland<br />
Lesotho<br />
Djibouti<br />
Somalia<br />
Seychelles<br />
Comoros<br />
Madagascar<br />
Mauritius<br />
Reunion<br />
Opportunity indicators<br />
GDP (current)*<br />
Population growth (annual) 2.56%<br />
Population (m) 171.3<br />
Mobile penetration (% of population with mobile<br />
access)<br />
US$262.61bn<br />
58.58 %<br />
Risk indicators<br />
Ease of doing business overall rank out of 184<br />
countries (17th in Africa)<br />
Transparency International Corruption Perceptions<br />
Index (0=highly corrupt, 100=very clean; ranked 38th<br />
in Africa)<br />
Strength of investor protection index (0 =unfavorable,<br />
10=favorable; ranked 12th in Africa)<br />
Logistics Performance Index: overall rank out of 155<br />
countries (25th in Africa)<br />
Urban population (% of total) 49.62 % Democracy score (0=lowest, 10=highest) 4<br />
Real GDP growth (compound average growth rate):<br />
5-year forecast (2018)<br />
Real GDP growth (compound average growth rate):<br />
10-year historical (2003)<br />
GDP per capita (US$): 5-year forecast (2018)<br />
<strong>Country</strong> wealth (1=low income, 2=lower middle,<br />
3=upper middle, 4=high income (non-OECD), 5=high<br />
income (OECD))<br />
5.38 %<br />
6.62 %<br />
US$2,652<br />
2<br />
Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance (rank out of<br />
52 countries)<br />
Perceptions of governance – rule of law: percentile<br />
rank (0=lowest, 100=highest)<br />
Perceptions of governance – regulatory quality:<br />
percentile rank (0=lowest, 100=highest)<br />
Quality of overall infrastructure (1=extremely<br />
underdeveloped, 7=extensive and efficient by<br />
international standards)<br />
Literacy rate (total population %) 61.3 % Corporate maximum tax rate (%) 30%<br />
Source: The World Bank; OECD National Accounts; United Nations Population Division & World Urbanization Prospects; Oxford Economics; ITU International; Transparency<br />
International; International Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Polity IV Project; Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance; Worldwide Governance Indicators; WEF Global<br />
Competitiveness <strong>Report</strong>; Worldwide Corporate Tax Guide<br />
• This is <strong>Nigeria</strong> GDP as per World Bank statistics. This is before recent rebasing of <strong>Nigeria</strong>n economy by the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n Bureau of statistics.<br />
131<br />
27<br />
5.7<br />
121<br />
43<br />
25.82<br />
20<br />
3.2<br />
Henry Egbiki<br />
<strong>EY</strong> West Africa Regional Leader<br />
Tel: +234 8023145694<br />
Email: henry.egbiki@ng.ey.com<br />
5 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>
FDI trends in <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s inflow of investment of FDI since 2003<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> received 6% of Africa’s total FDI for new projects and 11% of capital invested since 2007.<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> has seen strong compound growth in FDI projects of close to 20% since 2007. Although the average value of projects has declined,<br />
this reflects the growing diversification of investment (and the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n economy).<br />
23059<br />
60<br />
58<br />
% CAGR (2007–13)<br />
New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />
19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />
41<br />
43<br />
50<br />
45<br />
oject FDI<br />
7<br />
43<br />
Top sectors<br />
60<br />
Investments into <strong>Nigeria</strong> have 58been rapidly<br />
diversifying 50 in the period since 2007. Although<br />
the oil sector still attracts the most capital,<br />
there has been significant growth of FDI in<br />
34<br />
telecommunications, consumer products,<br />
construction and business services.<br />
4811<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s 3768investment into top sectors (2007–13) by<br />
most projects<br />
(Total = 306)<br />
6531<br />
19<br />
4656<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s investment into top sectors (2007–13) by<br />
most capital invested<br />
(Total = US$55,318m)<br />
14257<br />
009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
13<br />
7293<br />
561<br />
ject FDI<br />
9249<br />
642<br />
Other sectors<br />
47%<br />
Coal, oil and<br />
natural gas 8%<br />
Retail and<br />
consumer<br />
products<br />
4%<br />
11<br />
9441<br />
Other sectors 7%<br />
Chemicals 3%<br />
2516<br />
8480<br />
Business Services<br />
8%<br />
35<br />
11664<br />
25<br />
10447<br />
4906<br />
19<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
4613<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI 10447New project FDI<br />
43<br />
7613<br />
5775<br />
Real estate,<br />
hospitality and<br />
986<br />
835<br />
construction 8%<br />
6531<br />
19<br />
5983 6581<br />
% CAGR (2007–13)<br />
4656<br />
9 9 8<br />
1441 2761<br />
3111<br />
rmany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />
New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />
19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />
telecommunication<br />
35<br />
14257<br />
38<br />
11664<br />
5595<br />
25<br />
10447<br />
4906<br />
3963<br />
5447<br />
3303<br />
20<br />
12069<br />
% CAGR (2007–13)<br />
13543<br />
5145<br />
7293<br />
9249<br />
34<br />
9441<br />
New projects Capital invested<br />
4811<br />
Jobs created<br />
% CAGR (2007–13) 19.4%<br />
3768<br />
10.4% -9.6%<br />
3768<br />
43<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top 10 project investors since 2007<br />
38<br />
35<br />
Countries are ranked by most new projects (2007–13).<br />
2008<br />
4613<br />
5775<br />
27<br />
5595<br />
5447<br />
The US, South Africa and the UK are the top 3 investors into 3963 <strong>Nigeria</strong>. In terms of capital<br />
14 13<br />
3111<br />
11<br />
investment, there is still a strong bias towards the oil sector. However, there 2870is a marked shift,<br />
2708<br />
2516<br />
1978<br />
with investors from South Africa, the UK, and India, for example, leading the way in investing<br />
in sectors like telecommunications, consumer products and automotive.<br />
561 642<br />
7563<br />
43<br />
14257<br />
New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />
19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />
35<br />
11664<br />
25<br />
8480<br />
Source: All diagrams on this page have been sourced from fDi Markets and <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />
7613<br />
5983 6581<br />
35<br />
34<br />
2004 2005 Other<br />
14257<br />
investors 2006 (40%) 2007 2008<br />
13543<br />
2009 2010 Canada 2011(31%)<br />
2012 2013<br />
25<br />
12069<br />
11664<br />
10447<br />
19<br />
20<br />
9249 9441<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />
8480<br />
7293<br />
7613<br />
6531<br />
South Africa (6%)<br />
5983 6581<br />
4656<br />
4906<br />
5145<br />
4811<br />
3303<br />
3768<br />
4613<br />
5775 4613<br />
27<br />
5595<br />
5447<br />
5595<br />
5447<br />
3963<br />
3963<br />
14 13<br />
3111<br />
11<br />
14 13<br />
9 9<br />
2870<br />
8<br />
3111<br />
2708<br />
11<br />
2516<br />
9 9 27<br />
2870<br />
8<br />
2708<br />
1978<br />
2516<br />
1441 2761<br />
1978<br />
986<br />
835<br />
915<br />
561 642<br />
327<br />
1441<br />
293 2761<br />
14 13<br />
986<br />
835<br />
915<br />
11<br />
561 642<br />
United States South Africa UK India France 327 Germany 9 Japan 13 South Korea 9 Singapore Switzerland<br />
2870<br />
8 293<br />
11<br />
2708<br />
9<br />
9<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
Jobs created by FDI 2516New project FDI<br />
8<br />
6<br />
7<br />
6<br />
United States South Africa UK India France Germany 4 Japan South 4<br />
5 5<br />
3<br />
Korea 4 Singapore 4 4Switzerland<br />
4 4<br />
1978<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
Jobs created by FDI New project FDI 1441 2761<br />
986<br />
835<br />
915<br />
561 642<br />
327<br />
293<br />
7563<br />
43<br />
United States South Africa<br />
38<br />
UK India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />
35<br />
Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />
4613<br />
5775<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />
27<br />
5447<br />
12069<br />
23059<br />
41<br />
6531<br />
13543<br />
19<br />
20<br />
9249 9441<br />
8480<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
7293<br />
7613 2009 2010 2011<br />
60<br />
6531<br />
58<br />
5983 6581<br />
23059<br />
4656<br />
4906<br />
5145<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m) 4811<br />
50Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top 5 investors New projects for Capital FDI invested 3303 capital Jobs created invested since 2007 (total 3768 = US$55,318m)<br />
% CAGR (2007–13) 19.4% 10.4% -9.6%<br />
43<br />
41<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top 5 Capital investors invested FDI (US$m) for FDI Jobs new created projects by FDI New<br />
since<br />
project FDI<br />
2007 (total = 306)<br />
43<br />
38<br />
14 11 13<br />
9<br />
2870<br />
Other investors (49%)<br />
5775<br />
6<br />
France 9441 (5%)<br />
38<br />
35<br />
UK (7%)<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />
Coal, oil and<br />
35<br />
natural gas 52%<br />
Technology,<br />
media and<br />
915<br />
telecommunication 25%<br />
293<br />
Technology,<br />
media and<br />
24%<br />
3111<br />
5595<br />
Retail and<br />
consumer<br />
products<br />
21%<br />
Financial Services<br />
9%<br />
3963<br />
3303<br />
2708<br />
20<br />
12069<br />
23059<br />
41<br />
13543<br />
5145<br />
43<br />
7293<br />
9249<br />
34<br />
11<br />
13<br />
50<br />
35<br />
8480<br />
4811<br />
7563<br />
60<br />
27<br />
7613<br />
7563<br />
9<br />
9 9 8<br />
8<br />
6<br />
58<br />
5983 6581<br />
4656<br />
43<br />
14257<br />
35<br />
11664<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
25<br />
10447<br />
34<br />
4906<br />
3303<br />
50<br />
12069<br />
20<br />
60<br />
41<br />
United States (14%)<br />
South Africa (12%)<br />
UK (11%)<br />
India (9%)<br />
United States South Africa UK India France Germany Japan South Kore<br />
1224<br />
953<br />
TMT<br />
243<br />
1491<br />
RCP<br />
58<br />
Business services<br />
154<br />
45<br />
Financial services<br />
160<br />
1862<br />
710<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
256<br />
1980<br />
RCP<br />
99<br />
Financial services<br />
194<br />
2239<br />
1887<br />
16<br />
67<br />
TMT<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
Business services<br />
410<br />
845<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
United States 7<br />
South Africa<br />
UK India<br />
7563<br />
1540<br />
488<br />
TMT<br />
23059<br />
34<br />
Business services<br />
101<br />
13543<br />
United States (8%)<br />
Mauritius (8%)<br />
1125<br />
619<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
5145<br />
327<br />
43<br />
7293<br />
New project FDI<br />
409<br />
760<br />
44<br />
76<br />
RCP<br />
Financial services<br />
1246<br />
1593<br />
TMT<br />
58<br />
47<br />
492<br />
Life sciences<br />
9249<br />
34<br />
11<br />
Healthcare<br />
9441<br />
109<br />
3<br />
24<br />
639<br />
6<br />
Business services<br />
3768<br />
835<br />
2<br />
189<br />
1776<br />
Automotive<br />
50<br />
9<br />
8480<br />
1441<br />
4<br />
2190<br />
690<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas
United States South Africa UK India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
New project FDI<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s top investors by their top sector FDI investments since 2007<br />
Investor countries are ranked by most new projects 2007–13.<br />
These top investors contribute to 56% of all project activity and 44% of capital invested into <strong>Nigeria</strong> since 2007.<br />
11<br />
9<br />
6<br />
4<br />
3<br />
13<br />
9<br />
6<br />
4 4<br />
8<br />
5 5<br />
4 4<br />
7<br />
4 4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2 2<br />
1<br />
TMT<br />
RCP<br />
Business services<br />
Financial services<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
RCP<br />
Financial services<br />
TMT<br />
Business services<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
TMT<br />
Business services<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
RCP<br />
Financial services<br />
TMT<br />
Life sciences<br />
Healthcare<br />
Business services<br />
Automotive<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
TMT<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
Financial services<br />
RCP<br />
1224<br />
953<br />
243<br />
1491<br />
58<br />
154<br />
45<br />
160<br />
1862<br />
710<br />
256<br />
1980<br />
99<br />
194<br />
2239<br />
1887<br />
16<br />
67<br />
410<br />
845<br />
1540<br />
488<br />
34<br />
101<br />
1125<br />
619<br />
409<br />
760<br />
44<br />
76<br />
1246<br />
1593<br />
47<br />
492<br />
11<br />
109<br />
24<br />
639<br />
1776<br />
189<br />
2190<br />
690<br />
19<br />
88<br />
616<br />
1000<br />
22<br />
126<br />
4<br />
20<br />
United States South Africa<br />
UK India France<br />
14% projects/8% capital 12% projects/6% capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
New project FDI<br />
Source: fDi Markets; <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />
46 16,475<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s FDI outlook<br />
FDI outlook<br />
13,782<br />
12,600<br />
2000 2013 2018 Comments<br />
10,500<br />
Natural resources 24<br />
Labor<br />
5,288<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>'s oil and gas sector attracts a large proportion of total FDI, and its oil reserves will<br />
continue to attract substantial capital.<br />
7,015<br />
A rapidly growing working population, but relatively low levels of education remains a<br />
hindrance.<br />
Market size<br />
Infrastructure<br />
Roads and Power plants<br />
Bureaucracy<br />
bridges and transmission<br />
grids<br />
Political environment<br />
Overall outlook for FDI<br />
11<br />
Largest population and now the largest economy in the region, with rising GDP per capita<br />
2,848<br />
7<br />
levels, 2,470 makes this an increasingly attractive consumer market.<br />
5<br />
4<br />
Remains a challenge, but improvements 3have been made over previous decade, and there<br />
2 2<br />
is a substantial number of currently active infrastructure projects.<br />
103<br />
Airports Rail Industrial Significant levels still remain, Ports which hinders Oil and economic gas activity. Commercial However, Government Water is<br />
construction<br />
increasingly open for business. pipelines construction<br />
Capital value (US$m) Democratic institutions Project number and processes have improved substantially, but social tensions<br />
remain a concern.<br />
Natural resources and a growing consumer market are strong pull factors for FDI.<br />
Investment in infrastructure and improvements in the overall business environment will<br />
boost FDI levels going forward.<br />
Very unattractive Unattractive Average Attractive Very attractive for FDI<br />
Source: Oxford Economics; <strong>EY</strong> analysis<br />
7 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>
Jobs created<br />
-9.6%<br />
3303<br />
20<br />
12069<br />
41<br />
13543<br />
1224<br />
953<br />
TMT<br />
243<br />
1491<br />
5145<br />
RCP<br />
43<br />
7293<br />
58<br />
6<br />
Business services<br />
154<br />
45<br />
4<br />
160<br />
Financial services<br />
3<br />
1862<br />
710<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
256<br />
1980<br />
RCP<br />
99<br />
Financial services<br />
194<br />
6<br />
2239<br />
1887<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
TMT<br />
4<br />
16<br />
4 4<br />
Business services<br />
67<br />
410<br />
845<br />
4<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
1540<br />
488<br />
TMT<br />
34<br />
5 5<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s active* infrastructure projects up to July 2013<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> ranks 2nd in Africa by number of projects and 2nd by capital allocation.<br />
101<br />
Business services<br />
1125<br />
619<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
New projects Capital invested Jobs created<br />
4% CAGR (2007–13) 4 19.4% 4 10.4% 4 -9.6%<br />
3<br />
2<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>’s infrastructure project breakdown<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
New project FDI<br />
9249<br />
34<br />
9441<br />
3768<br />
50<br />
8480<br />
4811<br />
7613<br />
5983 6581<br />
409<br />
760<br />
RCP<br />
6531<br />
19<br />
44<br />
76<br />
4656<br />
Financial services<br />
14257<br />
1246<br />
1593<br />
TMT<br />
35<br />
11664<br />
47<br />
492<br />
Life sciences<br />
25<br />
10447<br />
11<br />
Healthcare<br />
109<br />
4906<br />
24<br />
639<br />
Business services<br />
189<br />
1776<br />
Automotive<br />
4<br />
2190<br />
690<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m) Jobs created by FDI New project FDI<br />
3303<br />
20<br />
12069<br />
41<br />
13543<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
19<br />
3<br />
TMT<br />
88<br />
2 2<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
5145<br />
43<br />
7293<br />
616<br />
1000<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
9249<br />
34<br />
9441<br />
22<br />
126<br />
Financial services<br />
4<br />
1<br />
3768<br />
RCP<br />
20<br />
8480<br />
4811<br />
7613<br />
5983 6581<br />
United Infrastructure’s States % contribution South Africa by number of projects UK Infrastructure’s India % contribution by France capital value<br />
14% projects/8% capital 12% projects/6% capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />
Construction sectors 7%<br />
Social and welfare 4%<br />
Social and welfare 2%<br />
Power generation and<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
New project FDI transmission 22%<br />
Power generation and<br />
Logistics sectors 66%<br />
transmission 23%<br />
Construction sectors 25%<br />
Logistics sectors 51%<br />
46<br />
16,475<br />
7563<br />
13,782<br />
7563<br />
43<br />
38<br />
35<br />
12,600<br />
27<br />
4613<br />
5775<br />
5595<br />
3963<br />
5447<br />
27<br />
10,500<br />
2708<br />
14 13<br />
2870<br />
1978<br />
561<br />
327<br />
642<br />
11<br />
2516<br />
24<br />
9 9 8<br />
1441 2761<br />
986<br />
835<br />
915<br />
293<br />
5,288<br />
3111<br />
7,015<br />
2708<br />
14 13<br />
2870<br />
1978<br />
561<br />
327<br />
642<br />
11<br />
2516<br />
9 9 8<br />
1441 2761<br />
986<br />
915<br />
835<br />
293<br />
India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland 11<br />
United States South Africa UK India France Germany Japan South Korea Singapore Switzerland<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
New project FDI<br />
2,848<br />
7<br />
5<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
2,470<br />
4<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
3<br />
New project FDI<br />
2 2<br />
103<br />
Roads and<br />
bridges<br />
Power plants<br />
and transmission<br />
grids<br />
Airports Rail Industrial Ports Oil and gas<br />
construction<br />
pipelines<br />
Capital value (US$m)<br />
Project number<br />
Commercial<br />
construction<br />
Water<br />
4 4<br />
*Active projects are categorized into three phases: 1. Conceptual to feasibility; 2. Financial closure to early implementation; 3. In progress and near completion.<br />
11<br />
9<br />
8<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5 5<br />
4 4<br />
4 4<br />
4<br />
Source: Africa Project Access,<br />
3<br />
2 Business 3<br />
2Monitor 2 International; <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />
1<br />
13<br />
9<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
4<br />
5 5<br />
3<br />
4<br />
7<br />
4 4<br />
4 4<br />
4<br />
3<br />
2<br />
3<br />
2 2<br />
1<br />
16<br />
Business services<br />
67<br />
410<br />
845<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
1540<br />
488<br />
TMT<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
Examples of some active infrastructure projects in <strong>Nigeria</strong><br />
34<br />
Business services<br />
101<br />
1125<br />
619<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
409<br />
760<br />
44<br />
76<br />
RCP<br />
Financial services<br />
1246<br />
1593<br />
TMT<br />
47<br />
492<br />
Project name Capacity and time frame Company involvement Other details<br />
Lagos Rail Mass Transit (PPP)<br />
Project<br />
Sponsored by the Lagos<br />
New project FDI<br />
Metropolitan Area Transport<br />
Authority (LAMATA).<br />
ica<br />
UK India France<br />
capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />
2,848<br />
7<br />
Abuja-Kaduna Rail<br />
Modernisation (PPP) Project<br />
Upgrading to standard gauge.<br />
5,288<br />
2,470<br />
Geregu 5II Gas-Turbine Power<br />
4<br />
3<br />
Plant<br />
Located in Ajaokuta, Kogi State.<br />
ports Rail Industrial Ports Oil and gas<br />
construction<br />
pipelines<br />
Capital value (US$m)<br />
Life sciences<br />
11<br />
Healthcare<br />
109<br />
7,015<br />
Project number<br />
24<br />
639<br />
Business services<br />
189<br />
1776<br />
Automotive<br />
2190<br />
690<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
10,500<br />
19<br />
TMT<br />
88<br />
616<br />
1000<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
22<br />
Financial services<br />
126<br />
RCP<br />
20<br />
• Phase one: the 27.5km<br />
Blue Line from Marina to<br />
Okokomaiko; LAMATA's<br />
has envisioned a long-term<br />
plan of seven lines<br />
• Completion of phase one is<br />
pushed out to end-2015<br />
• 186km rail modernization<br />
network 12,600 will result in a<br />
track with 36 bridges and 9<br />
fully developed stations<br />
• In progress (brownfield);<br />
completion expected in<br />
2014<br />
• 434 MW<br />
2 2<br />
• The plant was 103 turned over<br />
on schedule in mid-2013<br />
Commercial<br />
construction<br />
Water<br />
1224<br />
953<br />
TMT<br />
243<br />
1491<br />
RCP<br />
58<br />
Business services<br />
The China Civil Engineering Construction South Africa Corp.<br />
(CCECC) is the main EPC contractor on phase<br />
one. The project is sponsored by the Lagos<br />
Capital invested FDI (US$m)<br />
State Government (LSG) and will be developed<br />
by LAMATA on behalf of LSG.<br />
China Exim Bank is providing a US$500m<br />
13,782<br />
concessionary loan, the remaining US$374m<br />
comes from the Federal Government of<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong>. China Civil Engineering Construction<br />
24<br />
Corporation (CCECC) was awarded the main<br />
EPC contract.<br />
154<br />
Jobs created by FDI<br />
Siemens won the turnkey EPC contract to build<br />
the power station for the <strong>Nigeria</strong>n utility Niger<br />
Delta Power Holding Roads Company and Power (NDPHC).<br />
plants<br />
45<br />
Financial services<br />
160<br />
1862<br />
710<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
256<br />
1980<br />
RCP<br />
99<br />
Financial services<br />
194<br />
2239<br />
1887<br />
16<br />
67<br />
TMT<br />
Business services<br />
410<br />
845<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
1540<br />
488<br />
TMT<br />
34<br />
Business services<br />
101<br />
1125<br />
619<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
409<br />
760<br />
44<br />
76<br />
RCP<br />
Financial services<br />
1246<br />
1593<br />
TMT<br />
47<br />
492<br />
Life sciences<br />
11<br />
Healthcare<br />
109<br />
This modern rail-based public transport system is the<br />
first of its kind in SSA outside of RSA. The railway<br />
equipment, including signaling, rolling stock and fare<br />
New project FDI<br />
collection equipment, will be provided by the private<br />
sector. The project is also responsible for generating its<br />
own electricity. Detailed design and surveying for the<br />
entire project has been completed.<br />
United States UK India France<br />
14% projects/8% capital 12% projects/6% capital 11% projects/7% capital 9% projects/5% capital 5% projects/5% capital<br />
46<br />
bridges<br />
16,475<br />
and transmission<br />
grids<br />
11<br />
2,848<br />
Track laying for the single standard gauge line<br />
was officially launched in July 2013. The railway<br />
12,600<br />
modernization initiative in <strong>Nigeria</strong> aims at replacing<br />
10,500<br />
the existing narrow gauge system with the wider<br />
standard gauge system, while allowing high-speed train<br />
7,015<br />
operations on the railway network.<br />
5,288<br />
7<br />
2,470<br />
The project 5 was commissioned 4 under the National<br />
3<br />
2 2<br />
Integrated Power Project (NIPP) plan. Geregu II is now<br />
the third gas-turbine Industrial power plant to be Commercial constructed Water<br />
construction<br />
pipelines construction<br />
by Siemens in <strong>Nigeria</strong> as a turnkey project. By 2020,<br />
Project number<br />
<strong>Nigeria</strong> plans to increase the country's generation<br />
capacity by five to eightfold from its current level of<br />
approximately 5 gigawatts (GW).<br />
Airports Rail Ports Oil and gas<br />
Capital value (US$m)<br />
24<br />
639<br />
Business services<br />
189<br />
1776<br />
Automotive<br />
2190<br />
690<br />
Coal, oil and natural gas<br />
19<br />
TMT<br />
88<br />
616<br />
1000<br />
Real estate, hospitality and construction<br />
22<br />
Financial services<br />
126<br />
RCP<br />
20<br />
103<br />
Source: Africa Project Access, Business Monitor International; <strong>EY</strong> analysis.<br />
Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />
8
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9 | Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong>
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Africa by numbers 2013/14<br />
Whether entering into Africa or expanding across the continent, we believe it is critical to develop a structured analytical<br />
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Realizing potential. <strong>EY</strong> 2013/14 Sub-Saharan Africa talent trends and practices survey<br />
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<strong>EY</strong> Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast — February 2014<br />
Looking into the future of the world’s rapid-growth markets (RGMs) could reveal some exciting opportunities. We expect<br />
our 25 RGMs to recover over the course of 2014, with growth of over 5% expected in 2015. However, should markets react<br />
negatively to the global monetary tightening that is expected this year, medium term growth prospects would be limited.<br />
Read <strong>EY</strong>’s latest Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast to find out more.<br />
Africa by numbers A focus on <strong>Nigeria</strong> |<br />
10
World Economic Forum on Africa<br />
Abuja, <strong>Nigeria</strong>, 7 - 9 May 2014<br />
<strong>EY</strong> contacts at WEF Africa 2014<br />
Henry Egbiki<br />
Regional Managing Partner<br />
<strong>EY</strong> West Africa<br />
Tel: +234 8023145694<br />
Email: henry.egbiki@ng.ey.com<br />
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Lead Partner<br />
<strong>EY</strong> Africa Business Center TM<br />
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Partner<br />
<strong>EY</strong> Africa Advisory Oil & Gas Lead<br />
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<strong>EY</strong>’s attractiveness survey<br />
Africa 2014<br />
The fourth edition of the annual <strong>EY</strong>’s attractiveness survey – Africa 2014, will be<br />
launched on 15 May 2014.<br />
In our first edition of the Africa attractiveness survey 2011, we declared “It is<br />
time for Africa!” We also said that there was a window of opportunity to act before<br />
others woke up to the African opportunity. Today, that window is closing, and the<br />
cost of entering African markets is already beginning to rise. Companies with an<br />
already-established presence continue to expand and entrench their advantages.<br />
In our opinion, the risk of missing this window is likely to be far greater than any<br />
of the risks you will encounter in actually doing business in Africa.<br />
<strong>EY</strong>’s attractiveness survey<br />
Africa 2014 – Available 15 May.<br />
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